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New French Presidential poll has Le Pen just 6% behind – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,802
edited April 2022 in General
imageNew French Presidential poll has Le Pen just 6% behind – politicalbetting.com

in less than 2 weeks time there will be the first round of voting in the French presidential election which decides which two of the 12 contenders go through to the final two a fortnight later.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    Macron? Putin trade enabler? That Macron? Say it ain't so.....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    After this news of poisoning peace negotiators, I doubt old Macron will be taking any more trips to Moscow to meet Putin....
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562
    NickPalmer said:

    Idly scanning the press as I pas the bug-ridden time, I see two Times bits that made me raise an eyebrow:

    "[The Turkish mediator proposed that] “Crimea and Donbas should be held by Moscow under a long-term lease, similar to Britain’s control over Hong Kong from 1898 to 1997, with their future decided at a later date”

    - could be a possibility, maybe? Enables Ukraine to say they've not given up a ninch of soil, merely temporarily recignising the de facto situation, and Russia to say they've secured recognition for several decades. By the end of the period, both governments might look very different.

    Also, "39 per cent of the French population would like an unelected strongman in charge."

    WTAF?

    Man on White Horse To Reset Things To How They Should Be.

    The problem with De Gaulle is that he made this look easy.

    Much as George Bush Senior made war in the Middle East look like a good idea - quick, easy and get the Arabs and Israelis on the same side - what's not to like?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited March 2022
    These made me chuckle...

    Will Smith laughing at Chris Rock's joke then realizing Jada ain't happy
    https://twitter.com/mash_manuel/status/1508338383562723333?s=20&t=yg_XBRDzVhH1t_7_5xQVog

    JEFF STELLING’S STAYING ON FOR ANOTHER SEASON
    https://twitter.com/secondtierpod/status/1508460617870548993?s=20&t=1xAbE-d1cSNGWZ4rujyjmQ
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    edited March 2022
    FPT

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):

    Labour 37% (-3)
    Conservative 35% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 3% (+2)


    Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    After this news of poisoning peace negotiators, I doubt old Macron will be taking any more trips to Moscow to meet Putin....

    Putin is going to blame it on the US-sponsored bioweapons labs in Ukraine
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited March 2022
    TimT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    After this news of poisoning peace negotiators, I doubt old Macron will be taking any more trips to Moscow to meet Putin....

    Putin is going to blame it on the US-sponsored bioweapons labs in Ukraine
    Tonight on Tucker Carlson.....we exclusively reveal that....
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    This is the kind of margin I thought Macron was going to get pre-Ukraine invasion. And then I thought Ukraine invasion... Le Pen close to Putin... Macron gets to look Presidential...

    And I thought it'd be 60:40 to him. I.e. a smaller victory than last time, but still a relatively comfortable one.

    But it's now looking a little different.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    FPT:
    OldKingCole said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Cyclefree pointing out the obvious downthread:

    The main insight from this morning's LBC interview with Starmer is that Labour is going to get hit with a whole bunch of culture war wedge issues in the run-up to the next election. Those issues say a lot more about the distorted concerns of Westminster/media than the country.

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1508384695234478082

    I'm not sure "women's rights & safety" are a "distorted concern"....

    There are a lot of 'yebbuts' in those sorts of issues. For example, the man in the pub is initially against whatever it is, but then says 'yebbut' and turns out that on reflection he thinks it's quite a good idea.
    Like gay marriage. Your average 'straight' isn't bothered, finds it mildly amusing, but if it's not hurting anyone, and it protects the survivors rights on death, why not?
    Yebbut.....gay marriage does not impinge upon anyone else's rights. The debate over the GRA is the potential for some bad actors to impinge on natal women's rights, and the terrible muddle some have got into over "sex" and "gender" arguing that only the latter is "real" and should trump any rights based on "sex".
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    @ NickPxMP "39 per cent of the French population would like an unelected strongman in charge." WTAF?

    People don't like thinking about difficult things and look for someone who can provide simple, black & white answers instead.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    After this news of poisoning peace negotiators, I doubt old Macron will be taking any more trips to Moscow to meet Putin....

    NOW we know who demanded that crazy long table.....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    Bellingcat thread....its amazing what some random bloke off the internet, who claims they get their info by using open source data knows that things.

    https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=sNbkh_17vw0VeuxIU7AbFw
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562
    TimT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    After this news of poisoning peace negotiators, I doubt old Macron will be taking any more trips to Moscow to meet Putin....

    Putin is going to blame it on the US-sponsored bioweapons labs in Ukraine
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yushchenko#TCDD_poisoning

    Poisoning the well of the negotiations. Literally.

    On a serious note - this may be infighting on the Russian side. A deal might be fatal to memebers of a faction in Russia.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,126
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):

    Labour 37% (-3)
    Conservative 35% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 3% (+2)


    Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Goodness me what is wrong with these people - don't they read the Guardian?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Bellingcat thread on the poisoning:

    Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.

    https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,358
    edited March 2022
    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough/chivalrous, etc.

    If you know you can get away with it as well, it becomes easier to justify to yourself (Hollywood is famous for how some arsehole directors treat actors and crew terribly, yet people still work with them and praise them). It becomes a power thing - no consequences for acting like that, so why would you change?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bellingcat thread....its amazing what some random bloke off the internet, who claims they get their info by using open source data knows that things.

    https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=sNbkh_17vw0VeuxIU7AbFw

    Since they started up, they have developed a reputation for quality information. Which has meant, in turn that people talk to them directly.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,358
    TimT said:

    @ NickPxMP "39 per cent of the French population would like an unelected strongman in charge." WTAF?

    People don't like thinking about difficult things and look for someone who can provide simple, black & white answers instead.

    Yes, that result is far from surprising. Probably similar across a lot of democracies.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited March 2022
    Malmesbury said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bellingcat thread....its amazing what some random bloke off the internet, who claims they get their info by using open source data knows that things.

    https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=sNbkh_17vw0VeuxIU7AbFw

    Since they started up, they have developed a reputation for quality information. Which has meant, in turn that people talk to them directly.
    What came first the chicken or the egg...
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2022
    On topic: you need to be a bit cautious about polling on the run-off, since it's a hypothetical. Respondents to polls who'd actually strongly prefer someone who is not named in the hypothetical run-off often behave differently in reality, and this will favour Macron. In 2017, the final result was 66.1%/39.9%, but the final opinion polls had Macron's share 5 points lower. So whilst this is a very good poll for Le Pen, it should be taken with a pinch of salt.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    Malmesbury said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bellingcat thread....its amazing what some random bloke off the internet, who claims they get their info by using open source data knows that things.

    https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=sNbkh_17vw0VeuxIU7AbFw

    Since they started up, they have developed a reputation for quality information. Which has meant, in turn that people talk to them directly.
    They had all the inside scoop on the Salisbury poisoners.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    MarqueeMark said:

    Malmesbury said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bellingcat thread....its amazing what some random bloke off the internet, who claims they get their info by using open source data knows that things.

    https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=sNbkh_17vw0VeuxIU7AbFw

    Since they started up, they have developed a reputation for quality information. Which has meant, in turn that people talk to them directly.
    They had all the inside scoop on the Salisbury poisoners.
    And the downing of the plane by the Russians separatists.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069
    No to Ben Wallace thanks, though I do respect Dura Ace on defence matters, and he rates him above average. Personally I don't see it.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,339
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    NickPalmer said:

    Idly scanning the press as I pas the bug-ridden time, I see two Times bits that made me raise an eyebrow:

    "[The Turkish mediator proposed that] “Crimea and Donbas should be held by Moscow under a long-term lease, similar to Britain’s control over Hong Kong from 1898 to 1997, with their future decided at a later date”

    - could be a possibility, maybe? Enables Ukraine to say they've not given up a ninch of soil, merely temporarily recignising the de facto situation, and Russia to say they've secured recognition for several decades. By the end of the period, both governments might look very different.

    Also, "39 per cent of the French population would like an unelected strongman in charge."

    WTAF?

    WRT Ukraine, I think Putin's priority's are probably, 1) Water supply to Crimea, 2) All of the cost of sea of Azir i.e. a land bridge from Donbas to Crimea, 3) Ukraine not in NATO, 4) the bits of Debase he did not already control 5) formal recognition of Crimea and the rest, 6) any other bits of Ukraine he can get his hands on. or something like that.

    While the idea of a time limited lease sounds interesting, and who knows may come off, its certainly imaginative.

    But, for a start it it does not match the bits Russia holds and want, which might change. at the moment he almost has the land bridge which is not in the Dombras, but does not hold half of the Dombras.

    Also the Russian Naval base in the Crimea was on a time limited lease, (till 2019 I think) that did not go well. so not a good reputation for that in Ukraine. and it provides a good incentive for Russia to expel anybody who is not a die-hard Putin loyalist, which is not good
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    The latest Isop poll today still has Macron clearly ahead v Le Pen in a runoff on 57%, albeit still closer than 2017.

    In the first round Le Pen is second behind Macron on 18.5%, Melenchon third on 15.5% and Zemmour and Pecresse a distant 4th and 5th on 11.5% and 10.5%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508451348282580997?s=20&t=3h4f4CntB_sPO68h17dw7w

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508454330730438661?s=20&t=3h4f4CntB_sPO68h17dw7w
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,082
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    No to Ben Wallace thanks, though I do respect Dura Ace on defence matters, and he rates him above average. Personally I don't see it.

    Sergey Shoigu has set your expectations too high?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,358
    edited March 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    OldKingCole said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Cyclefree pointing out the obvious downthread:

    The main insight from this morning's LBC interview with Starmer is that Labour is going to get hit with a whole bunch of culture war wedge issues in the run-up to the next election. Those issues say a lot more about the distorted concerns of Westminster/media than the country.

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1508384695234478082

    I'm not sure "women's rights & safety" are a "distorted concern"....

    There are a lot of 'yebbuts' in those sorts of issues. For example, the man in the pub is initially against whatever it is, but then says 'yebbut' and turns out that on reflection he thinks it's quite a good idea.
    Like gay marriage. Your average 'straight' isn't bothered, finds it mildly amusing, but if it's not hurting anyone, and it protects the survivors rights on death, why not?
    Yebbut.....gay marriage does not impinge upon anyone else's rights. The debate over the GRA is the potential for some bad actors to impinge on natal women's rights, and the terrible muddle some have got into over "sex" and "gender" arguing that only the latter is "real" and should trump any rights based on "sex".
    Crudely, a resegregation of toilets into dicks and no dicks goes a long way to resolving most issues. Trans women yet to have the physical chop can pee against a tree.

    That or do away with urinals and make all toilets unisex.
  • Options
    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    HYUFD said:

    The latest Isop poll today still has Macron clearly ahead v Le Pen in a runoff on 57%, albeit still closer than 2017.

    In the first round Le Pen is second behind Macron on 18.5%, Melenchon third on 15.5% and Zemmour and Pecresse a distant 4th and 5th on 11.5% and 10.5%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508451348282580997?s=20&t=3h4f4CntB_sPO68h17dw7w

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508454330730438661?s=20&t=3h4f4CntB_sPO68h17dw7w

    I think the most Le Pen can get is about 43% in the runoff. I have generally predicted that Macron will probably get 58-60% in the runoff. Good polls for Le Pen though given that I don't think she polled above 42% last time.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):

    Labour 37% (-3)
    Conservative 35% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 3% (+2)


    Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    SCOTTISH SUBSAMPLE KLAXON

    SNP: 58
    CON: 17
    LAB: 14

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-27-march-2022/

    Must be because of their stellar performance on ferry procurement - up to £400 million for ferries budgeted at £95 - the MOD will be along to find out how they did it! (Though as the MOD don't have local elections to fight, Party Conferences to hold and Independence supporters to award without due diligence, not all of it may be applicable...)

    https://notesonnationalism.substack.com/p/its-time-to-call-it-corruption
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069
    williamglenn said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    No to Ben Wallace thanks, though I do respect Dura Ace on defence matters, and he rates him above average. Personally I don't see it.

    Sergey Shoigu has set your expectations too high?
    No, Palmerston has set my expectations too high.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991
    Certainly looks closer than the SNP got.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,339
    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    I think you'll find a lot of children are taught to stand up to bullies. Including physically if appropriate.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):

    Labour 37% (-3)
    Conservative 35% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 3% (+2)


    Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Electoral Calculus gives Labour 283, Conservatives 281 after the boundary changes
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=35&LAB=37&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
  • Options
    ExpatMalaysiaExpatMalaysia Posts: 24
    Perfectly timed to scare the Macron waverers into turning out!
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):

    Labour 37% (-3)
    Conservative 35% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 3% (+2)


    Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Electoral Calculus gives Labour 283, Conservatives 281 after the boundary changes
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=35&LAB=37&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    MIN gain Exmoor !
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,339
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    100% agreed.

    "Violence is never the answer" is an extremely dangerous fallacy not the truth. Violence is a last resort is fairer.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,074
    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    So they think we should allow fair competition with Russian gas? Yes, good thinking.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Flatlander said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    So they think we should allow fair competition with Russian gas? Yes, good thinking.
    They never learn
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Malmesbury said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bellingcat thread....its amazing what some random bloke off the internet, who claims they get their info by using open source data knows that things.

    https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=sNbkh_17vw0VeuxIU7AbFw

    Since they started up, they have developed a reputation for quality information. Which has meant, in turn that people talk to them directly.
    They had all the inside scoop on the Salisbury poisoners.
    And the downing of the plane by the Russians separatists.
    That one was pretty easy. The seperatists literally posted, "we've downed a plane, we are awesome" with video of the crash site. And then deleted the post when they realised what they'd done.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,905
    edited March 2022
    Has PB transitioned into Playground Bullies today?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Flatlander said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    So they think we should allow fair competition with Russian gas? Yes, good thinking.
    It was probably in the works for months but the timing is spectacularly tone deaf…
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    Yeah, bet you wouldn't tell Genghis Khan that to his face.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,301
    edited March 2022
    Average Labour lead down to 3% — [latest 10 polls].

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    Yeah, bet you wouldn't tell Genghis Khan that to his face.
    I think that if I had got anywhere near meeting Genghis Khan face to face I would have been guilty of serial incompetences!
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,074
    edited March 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Flatlander said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    So they think we should allow fair competition with Russian gas? Yes, good thinking.
    They never learn
    I guess it is really about favouring domestic suppliers over EU ones for building projects, but still, you'd think they'd have better things to think about when considering the current energy market.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    He wasn't. It's easy for people to say we shouldn't resort to violence in any situation, yet as I've pointed out victims of mental torture (people who won't have been physically harmed in any way) will see suicide as a way of their situation. You may think they are wrong or immoral to commit an act of physical violence against another person yet it will be a huge mitigating factor. The issue is that victims of mental abuse and torture have nowhere to turn, the police don't take it seriously, they barely take physical abuse seriously and victims of this invisible crime end up taking matters into their own hands either by suicide or picking up the nearest weapon and lashing out.

    I'm honestly shocked that PB is home to such a large number of victim blamers (and I loathe using that term, though it feels correct in this instance). People shouldn't suffer abuse silently as so many on here are suggesting.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    edited March 2022
    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    He wasn't. It's easy for people to say we shouldn't resort to violence in any situation, yet as I've pointed out victims of mental torture (people who won't have been physically harmed in any way) will see suicide as a way of their situation. You may think they are wrong or immoral to commit an act of physical violence against another person yet it will be a huge mitigating factor. The issue is that victims of mental abuse and torture have nowhere to turn, the police don't take it seriously, they barely take physical abuse seriously and victims of this invisible crime end up taking matters into their own hands either by suicide or picking up the nearest weapon and lashing out.

    I'm honestly shocked that PB is home to such a large number of victim blamers (and I loathe using that term, though it feels correct in this instance). People shouldn't suffer abuse silently as so many on here are suggesting.
    When anyone suggests that violence never solved anything, I suggest that they ask the leaders of the Carthaginian Empire.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    He wasn't. It's easy for people to say we shouldn't resort to violence in any situation, yet as I've pointed out victims of mental torture (people who won't have been physically harmed in any way) will see suicide as a way of their situation. You may think they are wrong or immoral to commit an act of physical violence against another person yet it will be a huge mitigating factor. The issue is that victims of mental abuse and torture have nowhere to turn, the police don't take it seriously, they barely take physical abuse seriously and victims of this invisible crime end up taking matters into their own hands either by suicide or picking up the nearest weapon and lashing out.

    I'm honestly shocked that PB is home to such a large number of victim blamers (and I loathe using that term, though it feels correct in this instance). People shouldn't suffer abuse silently as so many on here are suggesting.
    Of course I am not blaming victims but they have the option of escape or running away or, more commonly, just leaving.

    We have womens aid shelters and a variety of bodies set up to assist them. The police are much, much better at this too than they were. Certainly in Scotland, anyone even accused of assaulting a partner will be detained in the cells overnight, giving the partner an opportunity to leave if they so wish.

    So there is no excuse for picking up a knife, for example, instead. Of course such treatment can be significant mitigation but it doesn't excuse using the knife unless you are under immediate threat of serious harm.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    BigRich said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Idly scanning the press as I pas the bug-ridden time, I see two Times bits that made me raise an eyebrow:

    "[The Turkish mediator proposed that] “Crimea and Donbas should be held by Moscow under a long-term lease, similar to Britain’s control over Hong Kong from 1898 to 1997, with their future decided at a later date”

    - could be a possibility, maybe? Enables Ukraine to say they've not given up a ninch of soil, merely temporarily recignising the de facto situation, and Russia to say they've secured recognition for several decades. By the end of the period, both governments might look very different.

    Also, "39 per cent of the French population would like an unelected strongman in charge."

    WTAF?

    WRT Ukraine, I think Putin's priority's are probably, 1) Water supply to Crimea, 2) All of the cost of sea of Azir i.e. a land bridge from Donbas to Crimea, 3) Ukraine not in NATO, 4) the bits of Debase he did not already control 5) formal recognition of Crimea and the rest, 6) any other bits of Ukraine he can get his hands on. or something like that.

    While the idea of a time limited lease sounds interesting, and who knows may come off, its certainly imaginative.

    But, for a start it it does not match the bits Russia holds and want, which might change. at the moment he almost has the land bridge which is not in the Dombras, but does not hold half of the Dombras.

    Also the Russian Naval base in the Crimea was on a time limited lease, (till 2019 I think) that did not go well. so not a good reputation for that in Ukraine. and it provides a good incentive for Russia to expel anybody who is not a die-hard Putin loyalist, which is not good
    The fundamental problem is this: Russia needs to achieve something above and beyond what it started the war with.

    Now, originally the goal was to reincorporate Ukraine back into Russia. That's now off the cards.

    But Putin is probably thinking along the lines you outline: land bridge, official recognition, no NATO.

    The problem he has is that the Ukrainians are winning right now. (And by winning, I mean that Russian troops and munitions are being burnt through at an unsustainable rate.) And so long as the Ukrainians wish to keep fighting, then those goals are unavailable to Putin.

    To win, Putin needs the Ukrainian leadership to want peace. And I don't think he has the forces available to offer up a 'it will be worse for you' scenario to the Ukrainians. Indeed, right now, Putin is in the unenviable scenario of having to take troops and equipment from other parts of the Russian Empire to even stand still in Ukraine.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    edited March 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?

    Not every nation in the G20 should be there. Argentina, South Africa and Turkey are not in the top 20 largest economies for example but are there due to their regional significance.

    In reality Iran, the Netherlands and Switzerland should be in the G20 in their place
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Idly scanning the press as I pas the bug-ridden time, I see two Times bits that made me raise an eyebrow:

    "[The Turkish mediator proposed that] “Crimea and Donbas should be held by Moscow under a long-term lease, similar to Britain’s control over Hong Kong from 1898 to 1997, with their future decided at a later date”

    - could be a possibility, maybe? Enables Ukraine to say they've not given up a ninch of soil, merely temporarily recignising the de facto situation, and Russia to say they've secured recognition for several decades. By the end of the period, both governments might look very different.

    Also, "39 per cent of the French population would like an unelected strongman in charge."

    WTAF?

    WRT Ukraine, I think Putin's priority's are probably, 1) Water supply to Crimea, 2) All of the cost of sea of Azir i.e. a land bridge from Donbas to Crimea, 3) Ukraine not in NATO, 4) the bits of Debase he did not already control 5) formal recognition of Crimea and the rest, 6) any other bits of Ukraine he can get his hands on. or something like that.

    While the idea of a time limited lease sounds interesting, and who knows may come off, its certainly imaginative.

    But, for a start it it does not match the bits Russia holds and want, which might change. at the moment he almost has the land bridge which is not in the Dombras, but does not hold half of the Dombras.

    Also the Russian Naval base in the Crimea was on a time limited lease, (till 2019 I think) that did not go well. so not a good reputation for that in Ukraine. and it provides a good incentive for Russia to expel anybody who is not a die-hard Putin loyalist, which is not good
    The fundamental problem is this: Russia needs to achieve something above and beyond what it started the war with.

    Now, originally the goal was to reincorporate Ukraine back into Russia. That's now off the cards.

    But Putin is probably thinking along the lines you outline: land bridge, official recognition, no NATO.

    The problem he has is that the Ukrainians are winning right now. (And by winning, I mean that Russian troops and munitions are being burnt through at an unsustainable rate.) And so long as the Ukrainians wish to keep fighting, then those goals are unavailable to Putin.

    To win, Putin needs the Ukrainian leadership to want peace. And I don't think he has the forces available to offer up a 'it will be worse for you' scenario to the Ukrainians. Indeed, right now, Putin is in the unenviable scenario of having to take troops and equipment from other parts of the Russian Empire to even stand still in Ukraine.

    I really think that the BBC and others should now be mapping the areas Russia has lost control of rather than conquered. Their maps showing the early gains are becoming seriously misleading. Irpin apparently recovered today.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):

    Labour 37% (-3)
    Conservative 35% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 3% (+2)


    Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Get back to me when the Tories actually have a poll lead!

    Still no Tory poll lead for three months and 22 days...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Flatlander said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    So they think we should allow fair competition with Russian gas? Yes, good thinking.
    They never learn
    Hang on. Have you read the EU complaint to the WTO?

    I haven't, but you're assuming something that probably isn't in there.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited March 2022
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    My first thought was to agree with this. But then, Ukraine ... Is the implication that Ukraine is incompetent. Seems a little like victim bashing ...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
    No, the EU is our ally. The WTO must be wrong, this claim against us can't have been filed. One day people will realise the EU isn't our informal ally and we can't trust them.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):

    Labour 37% (-3)
    Conservative 35% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 3% (+2)


    Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Get back to me when the Tories actually have a poll lead!

    Still no Tory poll lead for three months and 22 days...
    Labour should be out of sight
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?

    Although it is worth noting that the G20 is not the twenty largest economies in the world for reasons which are not entirely clear to me, so despite the fact that Spain is 14th, it doesn't get to be a member.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991
    edited March 2022
    TimT said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    My first thought was to agree with this. But then, Ukraine ... Is the implication that Ukraine is incompetent. Seems a little like victim bashing ...
    No, the person who resorted to violence in Ukraine is Putin. And incompetent is probably a little aspirational for him right now.

    Refusing to resort to violence does not mean you do not fight back. I am no pacifist.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Taz said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Has PB transitioned into Playground Bullies today?

    They started it.
    No, Putin started it! He invaded Poland Ukraine!
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,517
    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,008
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
    No, the EU is our ally. The WTO must be wrong, this claim against us can't have been filed. One day people will realise the EU isn't our informal ally and we can't trust them.
    Do you think the US ceased being our ally when they maintained steel sanctions against us?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    rcs1000 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Flatlander said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    So they think we should allow fair competition with Russian gas? Yes, good thinking.
    They never learn
    Hang on. Have you read the EU complaint to the WTO?

    I haven't, but you're assuming something that probably isn't in there.
    I did read it would be caught in a virtual dead-end
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,008
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Flatlander said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    So they think we should allow fair competition with Russian gas? Yes, good thinking.
    They never learn
    Lol.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Well well

    Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at talks in Kyiv earlier this month, his spokesperson says.

    The Chelsea FC owner - who has now recovered - reportedly suffered sore eyes and skin peeling.

    Two Ukrainian peace negotiators were also reported to have been affected.

    The Wall Street Journal reported claims the alleged poisoning was orchestrated by hardliners in Russia who wanted to sabotage the talks.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60904676
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    edited March 2022
    MightyAlex said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Gardenwalker said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
    No, the EU is our ally. The WTO must be wrong, this claim against us can't have been filed. One day people will realise the EU isn't our informal ally and we can't trust them.
    Do you think the US ceased being our ally when they maintained steel sanctions against us?
    Different situation, those were pre existing and partly because we were never party to the original complaint. Once again, we should never have given up our seat at the WTO. With this we can see why.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    Gardenwalker said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
    No, the EU is our ally. The WTO must be wrong, this claim against us can't have been filed. One day people will realise the EU isn't our informal ally and we can't trust them.
    Do you think the US ceased being our ally when they maintained steel sanctions against us?
    We have two outstanding WTO complaints against us from the US, and one from the EU.

    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_by_country_e.htm

    As we are now outside the EU, we will (inevitably) accumulate WTO complaints from a lot of countries, and we will complain against a lot of countries. Because that is the nature of international relations.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    edited March 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?

    Although it is worth noting that the G20 is not the twenty largest economies in the world for reasons which are not entirely clear to me, so despite the fact that Spain is 14th, it doesn't get to be a member.
    Spain normally attends though as does the EU. Switzerland, Iran and the Netherlands however are excluded yes when they should be in it
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,008
    rcs1000 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
    No, the EU is our ally. The WTO must be wrong, this claim against us can't have been filed. One day people will realise the EU isn't our informal ally and we can't trust them.
    Do you think the US ceased being our ally when they maintained steel sanctions against us?
    We have two outstanding WTO complaints against us from the US, and one from the EU.

    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_by_country_e.htm

    As we are now outside the EU, we will (inevitably) accumulate WTO complaints from a lot of countries, and we will complain against a lot of countries. Because that is the nature of international relations.
    You know that.
    I know that.
    Others seem to think it’s some kind of personal vendetta.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
    No, the EU is our ally. The WTO must be wrong, this claim against us can't have been filed. One day people will realise the EU isn't our informal ally and we can't trust them.
    Do you think the US ceased being our ally when they maintained steel sanctions against us?
    Different situation, those were pre existing and partly because we were never party to the original complaint. Once again, we should never have given up our seat at the WTO. With this we can see why.
    We didn't 'give up our seat at the WTO', but even if we had, how on earth would that be relevant?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Breaking news: It's raining in Los Angeles!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well well

    Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at talks in Kyiv earlier this month, his spokesperson says.

    The Chelsea FC owner - who has now recovered - reportedly suffered sore eyes and skin peeling.

    Two Ukrainian peace negotiators were also reported to have been affected.

    The Wall Street Journal reported claims the alleged poisoning was orchestrated by hardliners in Russia who wanted to sabotage the talks.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60904676

    Interesting - so my guess that someone inside Russia was trying to sabotage the talks for being too successful, looking possible....
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?

    Although it is worth noting that the G20 is not the twenty largest economies in the world for reasons which are not entirely clear to me, so despite the fact that Spain is 14th, it doesn't get to be a member.
    I think the reasons are geopolitical. The G7 is entirely western-minded (squinting a little to include Japan there). So some new body was deemed necessary to look at the socioeconomic/ political issues globally which could include the largest economies of each major geographical region and political grouping. Africa is, of course, underrepresented with just RSA and the Arab world with just KSA.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    Gardenwalker said:

    HYUFD said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 billion.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Terrible.
    Who will think of the multi-billionaires?
    The Republicans no doubt (even if the tech and Hollywood billionaires vote Democrat)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Priti thinks Cressida shouldn't have resigned?

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    HYUFD said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    tlg86 said:

    Breaking news: It's raining in Los Angeles!

    It's snowing in MD
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    Still a wealth tax
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    HYUFD said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    They can come here. We'll undercut US taxes on them. And they can still fund the NHS...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    tlg86 said:

    Breaking news: It's raining in Los Angeles!

    Sadly, it's not snowing here in Olympic Valley.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?

    Although it is worth noting that the G20 is not the twenty largest economies in the world for reasons which are not entirely clear to me, so despite the fact that Spain is 14th, it doesn't get to be a member.
    I think the reasons are geopolitical. The G7 is entirely western-minded (squinting a little to include Japan there). So some new body was deemed necessary to look at the socioeconomic/ political issues globally which could include the largest economies of each major geographical region and political grouping. Africa is, of course, underrepresented with just RSA and the Arab world with just KSA.
    Africa is overrepresented in economic terms though as not a single African nation is yet in the largest 20 economies. In actual fact too Nigeria has a slightly bigger economy than South Africa
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,008
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    As opposed to the GOP who released a "tax the poor" plan.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    DavidL said:

    TimT said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever.
    The whole "violence is never the answer" bullshit is wrong and kids shouldn't be taught it. Violence, ultimately, is a last resort option that should be available.

    Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.

    Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
    According to Salvor Hardin, violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

    I think he was right.
    My first thought was to agree with this. But then, Ukraine ... Is the implication that Ukraine is incompetent. Seems a little like victim bashing ...
    No, the person who resorted to violence in Ukraine is Putin. And incompetent is probably a little aspirational for him right now.

    Refusing to resort to violence does not mean you do not fight back. I am no pacifist.
    So long as we can agree that a first resort to violence is permissible in self-defense to violence or imminent threat of extreme violence, then agreed.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,008
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?

    Although it is worth noting that the G20 is not the twenty largest economies in the world for reasons which are not entirely clear to me, so despite the fact that Spain is 14th, it doesn't get to be a member.
    I think the reasons are geopolitical. The G7 is entirely western-minded (squinting a little to include Japan there). So some new body was deemed necessary to look at the socioeconomic/ political issues globally which could include the largest economies of each major geographical region and political grouping. Africa is, of course, underrepresented with just RSA and the Arab world with just KSA.
    Africa is overrepresented in economic terms though as not a single African nation is yet in the largest 20 economies. In actual fact too Nigeria has a slightly bigger economy than South Africa
    There are only about 20 countries in the world that “matter”, and it correlates with GDP only a bit.

    USA
    Canada
    Brazil
    UK
    France
    Germany
    Russia
    Turkey
    Israel
    Iran
    Saudi Arabia
    India
    China
    South Korea
    Japan
    Australia
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion.

    It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729

    Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?

    In five years, they won't be top 30.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    MarqueeMark said:

    Macron? Putin trade enabler? That Macron? Say it ain't so.....

    I think it's the opposite problem. Le Pen is more Putinophile, and that is where the votes are going. Macron is not enough of a trade enabler perhaps.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    rcs1000 said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The EU filed a dispute against the U.K. at the World Trade Organization on Monday over Britain’s alleged discriminatory support for green energy projects

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387

    Hmmm... Germany offered the most generous green energy terms in the world for renewables with the solar FIT, so I'm not entirely sure they're in a position to throw stones.
    No, the EU is our ally. The WTO must be wrong, this claim against us can't have been filed. One day people will realise the EU isn't our informal ally and we can't trust them.
    Do you think the US ceased being our ally when they maintained steel sanctions against us?
    We have two outstanding WTO complaints against us from the US, and one from the EU.

    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_by_country_e.htm

    As we are now outside the EU, we will (inevitably) accumulate WTO complaints from a lot of countries, and we will complain against a lot of countries. Because that is the nature of international relations.
    I think that's fair and I see it that way. Loads of people have got the FBPE blinkers on and seem to believe the EU is some saintly organisation that would never do something like this.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Further proof that HSBC are just the equivalent of Deutsche Bank with a presence on the high street.

    HSBC has edited the research publications produced by its analysts to remove references to a “war” in Ukraine, according to a report, while continuing to operate in Russia.

    Language in several reports has been softened by committees at HSBC which review externally published research and client communications, such as changing the word “war” to “conflict”, the Financial Times reported.

    The intervention has raised complaints from some staff, according to the report.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hsbc-cut-references-to-ukraine-war-from-research-papers-report-says-5tbczhztr
This discussion has been closed.