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New French Presidential poll has Le Pen just 6% behind – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    I actually want this war over, a ceasefire and some sort of peace deal. it’s absolutely horrible to me, the war things happening, made worse in my head by thinking it’s absolutely unnecessary to have to settle disputes in this way. Do you see what I mean?

    Although Ukraine government doing all the trades to get negotiation moving, neutrality for security guarantees, ceding territory based on refs, only wanting Putin back behind February line, But it’s absolutely clear Putin has no interest seriously negotiating at this time, so in his own mind at least thinks the longer it goes on the better it’s now going to get for him and his negotiating position in next few weeks. Is this actually how it will now play out in next couple of weeks?

    I had “strange” war conversation with someone today. (My pastor). Firstly they said Odessa is a Russian city. Very much miles away from Russia in Ukraine, how can it be? I answered. Secondly they said it started when Ukraine nationalists insisted people talk Ukrainian in Ukraine rather than Russian. I’m sure that isn’t what started it, but I can see how it can be contentious though, as you don’t have to speak the same language to be part of and a patriot of a nation do you, so why would anyone insist on that?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    edited March 2022
    have we heard from @Cicero recently?

    Maybe I have missed his most recent posts, but the others were excellent.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    edited March 2022

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    I would have expected an effect in the polling but if anything it is labour who have seen a downtick as has Starmer

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    TimS said:

    Lab lead down ti 2 after shittiest budget in shitty budget land

    🌹LAB: 37% (-3)
    🌳CON: 35% (=)
    🔶LDEM: 9% (-2)
    🎗️SNP: 6% (+2)
    🌱GRN: 5% (-2)
    ⚪️REF: 5% (+3)

    SKS fans please explain

    LLG combined score of 51% is the lowest for some time. Must be down to the glorious generosity of Rishi at his breathtaking wonderbudget.
    LLGS score 57%.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536

    have we heard from @Cicero recently?

    Maybe I have missed his most recent posts, but the others were excellent.

    Last mention, I think he was in Cambridge.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,893

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    What should he wear? Attack him for his policies by all means, but we really shouldn’t go after politicians based on clothing etc. Even on his salary as chancellor he’d be able to afford them if he wanted. If he tried to pretend he didn’t have money he’d get mocked for that too.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292

    Anne Applebaum
    @anneapplebaum
    ·
    30m
    You didn't have to be a German to think that. One American expert on the Russian military also told me there was no point in sending weapons because the war would be over so fast

    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1508508135971078144

    ===

    Narrator: Four weeks later, Russia's might war machine was stalled, having taken no cities and lost seven of its most senior generals.
  • Options
    One thing that hasn't been mentioned on the previous thread is Wallace has a constituency issue:

    In 2005, he won Lancaster and Wyre from Labour. In the 2010 boundary changes, Lancashire gained an extra seat, Wyre and Preston N. Wallace moved to this new safe seat. In the current review, Lancashire loses the seat again, which means Wyre and Preston N is split five ways.

    The largest parts go to Preston (safe Lab) and Lancaster (Con in 2019 but highly marginal). Smaller bits go to Blackpool N (Con but vulnerable), Ribble Valley (Safe Con), and Fylde (Safe Con).

    So either he has to fight Lancaster (probably against Cat Smith) and hope Con do well enough nationally OR he has to try to elbow out one of his colleagues in the safe seats OR he has to chicken run somewhere completely different.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    TimS said:

    Lab lead down ti 2 after shittiest budget in shitty budget land

    🌹LAB: 37% (-3)
    🌳CON: 35% (=)
    🔶LDEM: 9% (-2)
    🎗️SNP: 6% (+2)
    🌱GRN: 5% (-2)
    ⚪️REF: 5% (+3)

    SKS fans please explain

    LLG combined score of 51% is the lowest for some time. Must be down to the glorious generosity of Rishi at his breathtaking wonderbudget.
    Johnson’s undoubtedly enjoying a Ukraine bounce, whether I like it or not.
    Yes he has, but the point is, it hasn't got him above water. From where he was this time last year this should be a 40 point lead.

    Plus, it won't last
    You’re assuming last year was the “true” lead rather than inflated by covid
    There isn't a "true" lead, there's a real lead which may be buoyed up by Covid/Ukraine or pulled down by partygate, wallpaper and fatlyingslobbery. You need to work on your ontology
  • Options

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    God I hate this country, only people with boring lives and micro penises criticise another person's choice of (expensive) footwear.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,411
    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting BBC coverage of the reopening of Gatwick South Terminal - some are struggling to find the staff to fill all their vacancies.

    There are about a million unemployed people in the UK.
    Of which a substantial proportion are unemployable.
    The unemployable are mostly not classed as unemployed. A million unemployed is actually pretty low and I would guess the majority are people who recently had a job or will shortly have one, ie frictional unemployment. The labour market is extremely tight as the supply of labour has gone down. The great Brexit experiment - will acute labour shortages ultimately increase or reduce people's standard of living - has begun. As an economist it is a fascinating period.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,864
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,905

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    Sharing a pair of trainers with Kayne West seems quite economical to me, even if rather inconvenient.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,843

    I would suggest that in this poll tonight (Redfield Wilton) evidence shows just how much Rishi has damaged his reputation but also for those interested in Boris's survival he looks as certain as has been for a long time to be leading into GE 24, unless he decides to stand down post a Ukraine peace deal

    Him standing down voluntarily before the GE can be assigned a probability of zero.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,360
    💥EXCLUSIVE from @breeallegretti

    Met police expected to imminently issue first fines for No 10 lockdown breaches

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/28/no-10-lockdown-breaches-met-police-expected-to-issue-first-fines
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    God I hate this country, only people with boring lives and micro penises criticise another person's choice of (expensive) footwear.
    Easy for you to say that from a keyboard. I went to the PB meetup at the beginning of the month in black quill-out ostrich skin Tony Lama cowboy boots. A straight flush to your 4 of a kind, if you'd even been there. So which of us walks it like he talks it?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060

    TimS said:

    Lab lead down ti 2 after shittiest budget in shitty budget land

    🌹LAB: 37% (-3)
    🌳CON: 35% (=)
    🔶LDEM: 9% (-2)
    🎗️SNP: 6% (+2)
    🌱GRN: 5% (-2)
    ⚪️REF: 5% (+3)

    SKS fans please explain

    LLG combined score of 51% is the lowest for some time. Must be down to the glorious generosity of Rishi at his breathtaking wonderbudget.
    Not according to this

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Boris Johnson leads Rishi Sunak by the widest margin since 18 Oct 2021.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better PM for the UK? (27 Mar)

    Boris Johnson: 37% (+2)
    Rishi Sunak: 28% (-5)

    Changes +/- 20 Mar

    Or this

    Lowest % of 2019 Cons voters who say Sunak over Johnson since 31 May 2021.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better PM for the UK? (27 Mar)

    Rishi Sunak: 20% (-6)
    Boris Johnson: 61% (+3)

    Changes +/- 20 Mar
    Johnson also leads Starmer as preferred PM 38% to 33%.

    Sunak only ties Starmer as preferred PM though 36% each

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-27-march-2022/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,358
    edited March 2022
    A rolling lease, one imagines

    Britain’s thetimes reports that Turkey is proposing that Crimea and Donbas be held by Moscow under a “long term lease” like the UK’s former control over Hong Kong with their future to de decided at a later date

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508436164168105986?cxt=HHwWhIC-ueCshe8pAAAA

    This is probably true though

    It may not look like it but I suspect we have passed the peak of what Zelensky can achieve as a communicator abroad. After the initial sensation there will now be diminishing returns for his efforts as countries and corporations have decided what they are ready to do for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508217935017480195?cxt=HHwWhsC4yZKOou4pAAAA
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,893
    Scott_xP said:

    💥EXCLUSIVE from @breeallegretti

    Met police expected to imminently issue first fines for No 10 lockdown breaches

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/28/no-10-lockdown-breaches-met-police-expected-to-issue-first-fines

    I assume names redacted though.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,237
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,462
    edited March 2022
    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    Rather like how the Navy used to use all the other navies as a sort of ship-mine.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
    Yes. It's a wealth tax. Your point being?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,358
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Lab lead down ti 2 after shittiest budget in shitty budget land

    🌹LAB: 37% (-3)
    🌳CON: 35% (=)
    🔶LDEM: 9% (-2)
    🎗️SNP: 6% (+2)
    🌱GRN: 5% (-2)
    ⚪️REF: 5% (+3)

    SKS fans please explain

    LLG combined score of 51% is the lowest for some time. Must be down to the glorious generosity of Rishi at his breathtaking wonderbudget.
    Not according to this

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Boris Johnson leads Rishi Sunak by the widest margin since 18 Oct 2021.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better PM for the UK? (27 Mar)

    Boris Johnson: 37% (+2)
    Rishi Sunak: 28% (-5)

    Changes +/- 20 Mar

    Or this

    Lowest % of 2019 Cons voters who say Sunak over Johnson since 31 May 2021.

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better PM for the UK? (27 Mar)

    Rishi Sunak: 20% (-6)
    Boris Johnson: 61% (+3)

    Changes +/- 20 Mar
    Johnson also leads Starmer as preferred PM 38% to 33%.

    Sunak only ties Starmer as preferred PM though 36% each

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-27-march-2022/
    Whoever is PM probably gets a boost though.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,462

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
    If a privately held business is the large majority of your wealth - say Theo Profetus or Peter Jones - then what happens?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Scott_xP said:

    💥EXCLUSIVE from @breeallegretti

    Met police expected to imminently issue first fines for No 10 lockdown breaches

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/28/no-10-lockdown-breaches-met-police-expected-to-issue-first-fines

    But they're not going to fine the likes of Johnson, Williamson, Acland-Hood...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
  • Options
    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,360
    Confirmed: the first tranche of Partygate fines are about to land.

    Chatter at senior levels of Whitehall tonight that around 20 fines are about to land imminently, possibly within next 24 hours.
    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1508506058041577479
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    edited March 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    💥EXCLUSIVE from @breeallegretti

    Met police expected to imminently issue first fines for No 10 lockdown breaches

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/28/no-10-lockdown-breaches-met-police-expected-to-issue-first-fines

    But they're not going to fine the likes of Johnson, Williamson, Acland-Hood...
    Laura Kuensssberg

    Met timetable has chopped and changed, so it's hard to be sure how this will develop - but sources suggest number of initial fines may be at least 15
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
    I'm pro farming, in fact you could say I was
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,237
    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
    Yes. It's a wealth tax. Your point being?
    To answer @kjh question “how is it ever a wealth tax?”

  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
    They combined harvesting them with their usual routine
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
    They combined harvesting them with their usual routine
    You're trailing in the path of my awesome tractor pun.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,864

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
    Well I don't know what the rules are in America, but unless there is a capital change (eg revaluation, share issue etc) the reason a business goes up in value is because of the income.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,408

    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,843

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    Sharing a pair of trainers with Kayne West seems quite economical to me, even if rather inconvenient.
    Yep - and even cheaper on the shoes front, in fact free, is to just get yourself a pair of Oliver Sweeney's. He'll never notice.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited March 2022

    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.
    Yes, it is fair to say that sacking all your workers publicly and illegally is not a smart business move. It turned a financial drama into what looks like a terminal crisis.

    Even if they can find a way through, they will struggle to win back lost business. Who would sail on P+O ferries knowing they don't care about laws or apparently safety?

    DFDS and Stena must have actually wet themselves laughing.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,642
    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    Rather like how the Navy used to use all the other navies as a sort of ship-mine.
    The interesting thing is that, from a Russian military point of view, the nuclear deterrent is working exceedingly well. If Russia didn’t have Nukes I’d expect NATO would by now have implemented a no-fly zone over Ukraine, bombed Russian installations, and quite possibly implemented a naval blockade in the Black Sea.

    I suppose the counter argument is that absent nukes, Russia might not have dared invade on the first place knowing the likely Western response.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,360

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.

    Maybe the SNP should buy a couple of the boats...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Scott_xP said:

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.

    Maybe the SNP should buy a couple of the boats...
    Miaouw!
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
    They combined harvesting them with their usual routine
    You're trailing in the path of my awesome tractor pun.
    Given the chaotic nature of war, perhaps it was a strange(r) tractor?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
    They combined harvesting them with their usual routine
    You're trailing in the path of my awesome tractor pun.
    Not a lot of people know this, but Milton saw Our Lord as a tractor driver

    Two Massey keys he bore of metals twain
    (The golden opes, the iron shuts amain)
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    God I hate this country, only people with boring lives and micro penises criticise another person's choice of (expensive) footwear.
    Easy for you to say that from a keyboard. I went to the PB meetup at the beginning of the month in black quill-out ostrich skin Tony Lama cowboy boots. A straight flush to your 4 of a kind, if you'd even been there. So which of us walks it like he talks it?
    Ten years on, PBers still talk about my footwear at a PB meet.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    8m
    “Russia is no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks”.


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,408
    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    Yes, unless the Ukrainian army is also tottering near the point of collapse, then you would expect to see wholesale collapses of the Russian front within the next week or two. Michael Kofman made that point in a podcast recently.

    If that's the case, and if Putin accepts the reality of that, then I think we would see a unilateral declaration of a ceasefire by Russia as soon as they have secured Mariupol.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
    They combined harvesting them with their usual routine
    You're trailing in the path of my awesome tractor pun.
    Not a lot of people know this, but Milton saw Our Lord as a tractor driver

    Two Massey keys he bore of metals twain
    (The golden opes, the iron shuts amain)
    Was he Harrised when he wrote that?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,864
    edited March 2022
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
    Well I don't know what the rules are in America, but unless there is a capital change (eg revaluation, share issue etc) the reason a business goes up in value is because of the income.
    Obviously different for a quoted company which is subject to market forces re share value, but again not knowing the rules in America but that is a capital gain surely.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.
    Yes, it is fair to say that sacking all your workers publicly and illegally is not a smart business move. It turned a financial drama into what looks like a terminal crisis.

    Even if they can find a way through, they will struggle to win back lost business. Who would sail on P+O ferries knowing they don't care about laws or apparently safety?

    DFDS and Stena must have actually wet themselves laughing.
    You think P&O are just past Charon?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    The current reports are that Ukraine has more tanks than it started with. Looks slightly speculative, but probably a significant factor.

    Picked the extras up at a farm sale, AIUI.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/the-ukrainian-army-has-captured-enough-russian-tanks-to-make-good-all-its-own-losses-and-then-some/?sh=602165007922

    They were offered at a tractorive prices.
    They combined harvesting them with their usual routine
    You're trailing in the path of my awesome tractor pun.
    Not a lot of people know this, but Milton saw Our Lord as a tractor driver

    Two Massey keys he bore of metals twain
    (The golden opes, the iron shuts amain)
    Was he Harrised when he wrote that?
    Oh Deere.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    God I hate this country, only people with boring lives and micro penises criticise another person's choice of (expensive) footwear.
    Easy for you to say that from a keyboard. I went to the PB meetup at the beginning of the month in black quill-out ostrich skin Tony Lama cowboy boots. A straight flush to your 4 of a kind, if you'd even been there. So which of us walks it like he talks it?
    Ten years on, PBers still talk about my footwear at a PB meet.
    A shrimper is not only a fan of the soccer club, Southend, but a foot fetishist.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,462

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    God I hate this country, only people with boring lives and micro penises criticise another person's choice of (expensive) footwear.
    Easy for you to say that from a keyboard. I went to the PB meetup at the beginning of the month in black quill-out ostrich skin Tony Lama cowboy boots. A straight flush to your 4 of a kind, if you'd even been there. So which of us walks it like he talks it?
    Ten years on, PBers still talk about my footwear at a PB meet.
    That's mainly because *you* talk about your footwear.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    8m
    “Russia is no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks”.


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    Well that is a pretty easy demand to be dropped as it already was. Perhaps Ukraine should now demand Russia is denazified?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,360
    The post-Covid evidence on Britain’s post-Brexit trade performance is starting to come in - and it doesn’t look good https://www.ft.com/content/484db1cf-e65e-49b3-a71e-fdd915a874a6
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    AlistairM said:

    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    8m
    “Russia is no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks”.


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    Well that is a pretty easy demand to be dropped as it already was. Perhaps Ukraine should now demand Russia is denazified?
    That could be somewhat more tricky, as loveable old rogue Adolf seems to be Putin's pin-up.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    kle4 said:

    A rolling lease, one imagines

    Britain’s thetimes reports that Turkey is proposing that Crimea and Donbas be held by Moscow under a “long term lease” like the UK’s former control over Hong Kong with their future to de decided at a later date

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508436164168105986?cxt=HHwWhIC-ueCshe8pAAAA

    This is probably true though

    It may not look like it but I suspect we have passed the peak of what Zelensky can achieve as a communicator abroad. After the initial sensation there will now be diminishing returns for his efforts as countries and corporations have decided what they are ready to do for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508217935017480195?cxt=HHwWhsC4yZKOou4pAAAA

    I just don't see how the actual Ukrainians living in the Donbas will stand for it. Even if Zelensky goes for it I doubt the Ukrainians who have had their cities destroyed by Russian shelling are going to welcome their new overlords. There will be a massive insurgency without a doubt.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,408
    kle4 said:

    This is probably true though

    It may not look like it but I suspect we have passed the peak of what Zelensky can achieve as a communicator abroad. After the initial sensation there will now be diminishing returns for his efforts as countries and corporations have decided what they are ready to do for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508217935017480195?cxt=HHwWhsC4yZKOou4pAAAA

    An interesting question is what happens if the liberation of Trostyanets is just the beginning, and it begins to look as though the Russian ability to sustain the invasion is beginning to crumble?

    Suppose the Ukrainians manage to retake Kherson City, or to force the Russian forces East and North-West of Ukraine back, beyond artillery range of Kyiv. Does that boost optimism in the West that Ukraine can win the war, encouraging the provision of more support, or does it lead some leaders in the West to worry about how Putin might react to imminent defeat?

    I could see some leaders of some countries wanting to reduce the amount of support provided to Ukraine, to encourage Ukraine to agree a compromise with Russia, to avoid Ukraine pushing on for for a complete victory.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    "Rishi Sunak dismissed calls for more help to alleviate the cost of living crisis today, saying his priority now was cutting taxes and getting public borrowing under control."

    Mail Online.

    We are well past peak Sunak now. He may well become leader, but he will be deeply deeply unpopular with the public soon.

    Fiddling will Rome burns comes to mind.

    There is evidence in tonight's Redfield Wilton poll of his popularity

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).
    He is only going one way on the popularity front after his tin-eared disaster of a budget.

    Totally out of touch.

    I see the Mail has also found photo of him wandering around Westminster yesterday in £350 trainers that Kayne West wears.

    I suppose at least he was working on a sunday.
    God I hate this country, only people with boring lives and micro penises criticise another person's choice of (expensive) footwear.
    Easy for you to say that from a keyboard. I went to the PB meetup at the beginning of the month in black quill-out ostrich skin Tony Lama cowboy boots. A straight flush to your 4 of a kind, if you'd even been there. So which of us walks it like he talks it?
    Ten years on, PBers still talk about my footwear at a PB meet.
    Game on for next time

    I also have the same boots in teju lizard. And some custom Giddens polo boots...
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044
    Scott_xP said:

    The post-Covid evidence on Britain’s post-Brexit trade performance is starting to come in - and it doesn’t look good https://www.ft.com/content/484db1cf-e65e-49b3-a71e-fdd915a874a6

    Look on the bright side. That will fill your evenings for the next few weeks trawling Twitter for stuff to post about it
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,536
    AlistairM said:

    kle4 said:

    A rolling lease, one imagines

    Britain’s thetimes reports that Turkey is proposing that Crimea and Donbas be held by Moscow under a “long term lease” like the UK’s former control over Hong Kong with their future to de decided at a later date

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508436164168105986?cxt=HHwWhIC-ueCshe8pAAAA

    This is probably true though

    It may not look like it but I suspect we have passed the peak of what Zelensky can achieve as a communicator abroad. After the initial sensation there will now be diminishing returns for his efforts as countries and corporations have decided what they are ready to do for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508217935017480195?cxt=HHwWhsC4yZKOou4pAAAA

    I just don't see how the actual Ukrainians living in the Donbas will stand for it. Even if Zelensky goes for it I doubt the Ukrainians who have had their cities destroyed by Russian shelling are going to welcome their new overlords. There will be a massive insurgency without a doubt.
    Or you buy the votes. US$50k for each of the Donbas residents - if they vote to be part of Ukraine.

    The US can afford that.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,905
    I saw some discussion earlier about 'male violence' in light of what happened at the Oscars.
    My son is 5. He goes to a state school with some rough kids from a nearby council estate.
    He kept on coming back from school complaining that the children were hitting him.
    Originally we told him not to get involved, to walk away and tell the teacher.
    He was never convinced that this was a good solution and sighed when we told him to do it.
    We started taking him to karate lessons a few weeks ago, which he loves.
    After a few lessons his confidence has completely transformed.
    Even though the school has an official 'zero tolerance' policy to fighting it is going on all the time in the playground.
    We told him that he can only fight if he has agreed to have a play fight with someone.
    Alternatively, we have just told him that he never, ever starts a fight on anyone one - but if he gets attacked, then he can hit back in self defence.
    I think it is folly to think that you can ever stop people from fighting.
    We go and fight wars, that is fighting.
    Civilisation was built on fighting, we have to defend what we have built from attack.
    It isn't nice, but the world is what it is.
    I'd rather have a child who was fighting back, with a clear sense of right and wrong, than having a child who is being bullied and terrified of going to school.

  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,864

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
    Yes. It's a wealth tax. Your point being?
    To answer @kjh question “how is it ever a wealth tax?”

    Except it isn't. It is an income tax only. It is s tax on income. If you don't realise the income it doesn't stop it being an income. If your company makes £100 and you don't pay it out it will go up in value by £100. Your P&L account will show a profit of £100 and you pay tax on it.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    Bang on

    I’m amazed at the usually logical PB-ers defending extremely public physical assault. Will Smith was not being bullied. He’s an extremely powerful wealthy actor. He just lost his rag and did it in the most distressing way and forgot that he really IS a role model for millions

    A depressing thread indeed

    If he really wanted to humiliate Chris rock and make a point he could have quietly walked on stage and demanded an apology there and then. Explaining the alopecia.

    So much more powerful. The slap was absurd and demeaning for will smith

    Will Smith laughed at the joke when first made. What a tool. Violence over a joke is not the answer.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,408
    ydoethur said:

    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.
    Yes, it is fair to say that sacking all your workers publicly and illegally is not a smart business move. It turned a financial drama into what looks like a terminal crisis.

    Even if they can find a way through, they will struggle to win back lost business. Who would sail on P+O ferries knowing they don't care about laws or apparently safety?

    DFDS and Stena must have actually wet themselves laughing.
    They said on the radio news this evening that DFDS were putting on more services on the Dover-Calais route because P&O still weren't ready to resume services. If there isn't some sort of backtrack from the company, or rescue of its assets when it enters into liquidation, I think we will see a permanent loss in competition on the routes that P&O operated.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,954

    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.
    Gerald Ratner must be feeling a fair bit of relief at his name no longer being used as the eponymous term for corporate seppuku with no reason at all.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Carnyx said:

    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.
    Gerald Ratner must be feeling a fair bit of relief at his name no longer being used as the eponymous term for corporate seppuku with no reason at all.
    P+O can be rendered as 'poo' which is what their reputation is right now...
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044
    AlistairM said:

    kle4 said:

    A rolling lease, one imagines

    Britain’s thetimes reports that Turkey is proposing that Crimea and Donbas be held by Moscow under a “long term lease” like the UK’s former control over Hong Kong with their future to de decided at a later date

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508436164168105986?cxt=HHwWhIC-ueCshe8pAAAA

    This is probably true though

    It may not look like it but I suspect we have passed the peak of what Zelensky can achieve as a communicator abroad. After the initial sensation there will now be diminishing returns for his efforts as countries and corporations have decided what they are ready to do for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508217935017480195?cxt=HHwWhsC4yZKOou4pAAAA

    I just don't see how the actual Ukrainians living in the Donbas will stand for it. Even if Zelensky goes for it I doubt the Ukrainians who have had their cities destroyed by Russian shelling are going to welcome their new overlords. There will be a massive insurgency without a doubt.
    I guess they will have little choice. Stay or move. Unpalatable as either would be.

    My wife and I got married in Paphos and so many people we met there were descended from people who came from or came from Northern Cyprus after the war.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,145
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    Bang on

    I’m amazed at the usually logical PB-ers defending extremely public physical assault. Will Smith was not being bullied. He’s an extremely powerful wealthy actor. He just lost his rag and did it in the most distressing way and forgot that he really IS a role model for millions

    A depressing thread indeed

    If he really wanted to humiliate Chris rock and make a point he could have quietly walked on stage and demanded an apology there and then. Explaining the alopecia.

    So much more powerful. The slap was absurd and demeaning for will smith
    Yup, he was a dead cert for the Oscar and prime time tv space to speak, and even if he didn’t win it he knew he’d have 100 live microphones to speak to later. There was a much classier way to deal with it, and also to put Rock in his place. Smith was just being a cock.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    AlistairM said:

    kle4 said:

    A rolling lease, one imagines

    Britain’s thetimes reports that Turkey is proposing that Crimea and Donbas be held by Moscow under a “long term lease” like the UK’s former control over Hong Kong with their future to de decided at a later date

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508436164168105986?cxt=HHwWhIC-ueCshe8pAAAA

    This is probably true though

    It may not look like it but I suspect we have passed the peak of what Zelensky can achieve as a communicator abroad. After the initial sensation there will now be diminishing returns for his efforts as countries and corporations have decided what they are ready to do for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508217935017480195?cxt=HHwWhsC4yZKOou4pAAAA

    I just don't see how the actual Ukrainians living in the Donbas will stand for it. Even if Zelensky goes for it I doubt the Ukrainians who have had their cities destroyed by Russian shelling are going to welcome their new overlords. There will be a massive insurgency without a doubt.
    Zelensky wants a referendum doesn't he?

    If the Donbas votes to join the child murdering dictatorship of Putin just because many of them speak Russian, then good bloody luck to them.

    Must be UN controlled referendum mind. Not some bollx organized by the FSB.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,954

    I would suggest that in this poll tonight (Redfield Wilton) evidence shows just how much Rishi has damaged his reputation but also for those interested in Boris's survival he looks as certain as has been for a long time to be leading into GE 24, unless he decides to stand down post a Ukraine peace deal

    I still think there will be a moment of danger when the met finish their work and the full Sue Gray report emerges.
    There is a lot of visceral anger about the parties while you couldn’t see dying relatives.
    It could be but if reports are to be believed most of those interviewed are denying they were at a party and that it was job related

    There is a real danger this gets caught in a series of court cases and appeals that could turn the whole issue into a circus, especially as this is no more serious than a parking fine in criminal terms
    If one doesn't want to be in a circus, one doesn't put on white and coloured makeup and get into this open-topped car painted with flowers and a strangely loose steering wheel. Not to mention this cage with a tabby pussycat about three metres long.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,145
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    Bang on

    I’m amazed at the usually logical PB-ers defending extremely public physical assault. Will Smith was not being bullied. He’s an extremely powerful wealthy actor. He just lost his rag and did it in the most distressing way and forgot that he really IS a role model for millions

    A depressing thread indeed

    If he really wanted to humiliate Chris rock and make a point he could have quietly walked on stage and demanded an apology there and then. Explaining the alopecia.

    So much more powerful. The slap was absurd and demeaning for will smith

    Will Smith laughed at the joke when first made. What a tool. Violence over a joke is not the answer.
    Yes I noticed that. I think he was overreacting to the fact that he had laughed and his wife had not. He’s a small man and he overcompensated.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,408
    Carnyx said:

    BREAKING: A second P&O ferry, the Pride of Kent, is being detained following safety checks by the authorities amid the backlash over the company's decision to replace 800 seafarers with lower-paid crew.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1508518941248921615

    P&O are a zombie company. They may as well call in the receivers now.

    Given that directors of a company have a legal obligation to act in the company's best interests, is there a chance that the owners of P&O would have a case against the CEO?

    What an absolute shambles.
    Gerald Ratner must be feeling a fair bit of relief at his name no longer being used as the eponymous term for corporate seppuku with no reason at all.
    "Ratnered" is so much easier to say than "Hebblethwaited", or "P&Oed", so I think it will survive, but P&O will be seen as taking Ratnering to a new level.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,864
    kjh said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    If you own a business that goes up in value but you plan never to sell, then you are being taxed on your wealth
    Yes. It's a wealth tax. Your point being?
    To answer @kjh question “how is it ever a wealth tax?”

    Except it isn't. It is an income tax only. It is s tax on income. If you don't realise the income it doesn't stop it being an income. If your company makes £100 and you don't pay it out it will go up in value by £100. Your P&L account will show a profit of £100 and you pay tax on it.
    Or rather your company does.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited March 2022
    Taz said:
    Taz said:
    Scott sometimes links to tweets which are interesting, and relevant to politics or to betting. That is obviously harder than it looks.

    Do you want to explain what the point of that link is?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397
    TBH the poll showing them that close looks like an outlier - see

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election?msclkid=98c6adf9aecc11eca61dd82175a22bcb .

    The IFOP polls are the ones showing them gap relatively close - all the others show Macron 10+ points ahead, often more. I don't see the poll with Zemmour level and Melanchon 1 behind, but even if Wikipedia forgot that one, all the others show Le Pen very comfortably in 2nd, by roughly 2-1 over Zemmour.

    I don't know if IFOP samples diffierently to the others - maybe there's a reason for the discrepancy there?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    More tragedy thanks to Vladolph:

    LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said.

    The two sources said soldiers in the convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear. The second Chernobyl employee said that was "suicidal" for the soldiers because the radioactive dust they inhaled was likely to cause internal radiation in their bodies.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,145
    darkage said:

    I saw some discussion earlier about 'male violence' in light of what happened at the Oscars.
    My son is 5. He goes to a state school with some rough kids from a nearby council estate.
    He kept on coming back from school complaining that the children were hitting him.
    Originally we told him not to get involved, to walk away and tell the teacher.
    He was never convinced that this was a good solution and sighed when we told him to do it.
    We started taking him to karate lessons a few weeks ago, which he loves.
    After a few lessons his confidence has completely transformed.
    Even though the school has an official 'zero tolerance' policy to fighting it is going on all the time in the playground.
    We told him that he can only fight if he has agreed to have a play fight with someone.
    Alternatively, we have just told him that he never, ever starts a fight on anyone one - but if he gets attacked, then he can hit back in self defence.
    I think it is folly to think that you can ever stop people from fighting.
    We go and fight wars, that is fighting.
    Civilisation was built on fighting, we have to defend what we have built from attack.
    It isn't nice, but the world is what it is.
    I'd rather have a child who was fighting back, with a clear sense of right and wrong, than having a child who is being bullied and terrified of going to school.

    My dad was very clear with me growing up. Don’t start a fight, but always fight back and put them on their arse. I stick with that. It’s always wrong to start it, but it’s never wrong to defend yourself or others, and I think kids can manage that message.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited March 2022

    AlistairM said:

    kle4 said:

    A rolling lease, one imagines

    Britain’s thetimes reports that Turkey is proposing that Crimea and Donbas be held by Moscow under a “long term lease” like the UK’s former control over Hong Kong with their future to de decided at a later date

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508436164168105986?cxt=HHwWhIC-ueCshe8pAAAA

    This is probably true though

    It may not look like it but I suspect we have passed the peak of what Zelensky can achieve as a communicator abroad. After the initial sensation there will now be diminishing returns for his efforts as countries and corporations have decided what they are ready to do for Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1508217935017480195?cxt=HHwWhsC4yZKOou4pAAAA

    I just don't see how the actual Ukrainians living in the Donbas will stand for it. Even if Zelensky goes for it I doubt the Ukrainians who have had their cities destroyed by Russian shelling are going to welcome their new overlords. There will be a massive insurgency without a doubt.
    Zelensky wants a referendum doesn't he?

    If the Donbas votes to join the child murdering dictatorship of Putin just because many of them speak Russian, then good bloody luck to them.

    Must be UN controlled referendum mind. Not some bollx organized by the FSB.
    Indeed no. They couldn't even organise a simple sightseeing tour of Salisbury without cocking the whole thing up, how would they manage a referendum in a war zone?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Times are a changing:

    Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax

    20% minimum tax on household wealth of over $100 million.

    Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
    Only 20%
    It’s not even, as I understand it, a wealth tax.
    It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.

    The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.

    HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
    It is to the extent that wealthy households not paying 20% of their income in tax will have to pay this top up instead out of their assets and capital to get to the 20% tax

    https://www.ft.com/content/4b60898d-00c2-4f1e-acad-8a210120153f
    ?

    It's an income tax. They pay it out of income. You pay tax at 20% or greater on your income, do have to dig into your assets? How is it ever a wealth tax? Bonkers.
    It is a sort of wealth tax.

    Let me give you an example.

    I am currently raising money for my start-up auto insurance company. Let's say we raise $15m, and the price of the shares means the company is valued at $60m.

    On paper, I will be worth (say) $10m more than I was last year. But I am not able to sell my shares. The paper value of them is just that... paper. If things go well, then at some point in the future I will be able to sell them, and then I will pay capital gains tax. But right now, I have unrealised capital gain.

    Now, let's say that I am charge 20% on that $10m gain. From whence do I get the $2m? I don't actually earn anything like $2m/year. And I pay income tax on my actual earnings.

    And what if my insurer has to close down next year? In that scenario, what happens? I will have lost everything, and I will have paid $2m in tax on a gain I never made.

    Income is money you receive. Unrealized capital gains are not money you have received. You don't necessarily even have any control over what they are. They are also often not easily realisable. It would be essentially impossible for me to sell shares in my insurance company, even if I wanted to.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,667
    biggles said:

    darkage said:

    I saw some discussion earlier about 'male violence' in light of what happened at the Oscars.
    My son is 5. He goes to a state school with some rough kids from a nearby council estate.
    He kept on coming back from school complaining that the children were hitting him.
    Originally we told him not to get involved, to walk away and tell the teacher.
    He was never convinced that this was a good solution and sighed when we told him to do it.
    We started taking him to karate lessons a few weeks ago, which he loves.
    After a few lessons his confidence has completely transformed.
    Even though the school has an official 'zero tolerance' policy to fighting it is going on all the time in the playground.
    We told him that he can only fight if he has agreed to have a play fight with someone.
    Alternatively, we have just told him that he never, ever starts a fight on anyone one - but if he gets attacked, then he can hit back in self defence.
    I think it is folly to think that you can ever stop people from fighting.
    We go and fight wars, that is fighting.
    Civilisation was built on fighting, we have to defend what we have built from attack.
    It isn't nice, but the world is what it is.
    I'd rather have a child who was fighting back, with a clear sense of right and wrong, than having a child who is being bullied and terrified of going to school.

    My dad was very clear with me growing up. Don’t start a fight, but always fight back and put them on their arse. I stick with that. It’s always wrong to start it, but it’s never wrong to defend yourself or others, and I think kids can manage that message.
    I don't think anyone on here is arguing that.

    What they're arguing with is the idea that it's good to respond with fists to verbal aggro.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,145

    biggles said:

    darkage said:

    I saw some discussion earlier about 'male violence' in light of what happened at the Oscars.
    My son is 5. He goes to a state school with some rough kids from a nearby council estate.
    He kept on coming back from school complaining that the children were hitting him.
    Originally we told him not to get involved, to walk away and tell the teacher.
    He was never convinced that this was a good solution and sighed when we told him to do it.
    We started taking him to karate lessons a few weeks ago, which he loves.
    After a few lessons his confidence has completely transformed.
    Even though the school has an official 'zero tolerance' policy to fighting it is going on all the time in the playground.
    We told him that he can only fight if he has agreed to have a play fight with someone.
    Alternatively, we have just told him that he never, ever starts a fight on anyone one - but if he gets attacked, then he can hit back in self defence.
    I think it is folly to think that you can ever stop people from fighting.
    We go and fight wars, that is fighting.
    Civilisation was built on fighting, we have to defend what we have built from attack.
    It isn't nice, but the world is what it is.
    I'd rather have a child who was fighting back, with a clear sense of right and wrong, than having a child who is being bullied and terrified of going to school.

    My dad was very clear with me growing up. Don’t start a fight, but always fight back and put them on their arse. I stick with that. It’s always wrong to start it, but it’s never wrong to defend yourself or others, and I think kids can manage that message.
    I don't think anyone on here is arguing that.

    What they're arguing with is the idea that it's good to respond with fists to verbal aggro.
    Yup. A point I also made above - was replying to the above. I think folk get too nervous kids can’t handle complex messages.
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    Still a small chance you could win your Tory lead bets
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397
    edited March 2022
    By the way, this is the sort of event that might appeal to some of you:

    https://www.verylargehugegames.com/roles-guide

    I designed one myself many years ago ("The Middle East Peacegame", which attracted 80 or so players and was good fun. By definition each game is only ever played once, since there are countless secrets in the design which are reveasled (or not) during the day. I've joined a tream with 3 friends, but individual signups are possible. If anyone goes for it, PM me and we can touch base on the day.

    How Covid-friendly it'll be is an interesting question - but it's possible to cancel until late in the day if the pandemic flares up big time.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,044
    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    Bang on

    I’m amazed at the usually logical PB-ers defending extremely public physical assault. Will Smith was not being bullied. He’s an extremely powerful wealthy actor. He just lost his rag and did it in the most distressing way and forgot that he really IS a role model for millions

    A depressing thread indeed

    If he really wanted to humiliate Chris rock and make a point he could have quietly walked on stage and demanded an apology there and then. Explaining the alopecia.

    So much more powerful. The slap was absurd and demeaning for will smith

    Will Smith laughed at the joke when first made. What a tool. Violence over a joke is not the answer.
    Yes I noticed that. I think he was overreacting to the fact that he had laughed and his wife had not. He’s a small man and he overcompensated.
    Yes he did, on the night of his greatest triumph too in a terrific career.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,706

    TimS said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's confirmed Russian equipment losses have gone over 2000 today, with the tank losses (318) now at more than 25% of the initial estimate of 1250 tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    And still saying "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here"....
    Last update I saw said he had another 175 Russian losses to record......
    The attrition rate is such that if the Ukrainians weren't losing kit at a reasonable whack too (though apparently less quickly than Russia) you might expect the fightback to start gathering pace quite quickly. A constant rate of losses to a diminishing stock, plus what must surely be a very tired and sleep-deprived army, points to some kind of tipping point. Unless Ukraine is stretched beyond what we realise (which is possible).
    Yes, unless the Ukrainian army is also tottering near the point of collapse, then you would expect to see wholesale collapses of the Russian front within the next week or two. Michael Kofman made that point in a podcast recently.

    If that's the case, and if Putin accepts the reality of that, then I think we would see a unilateral declaration of a ceasefire by Russia as soon as they have secured Mariupol.
    What that overlooks is that Russia has deep reserves of additional forces that were never committed to the Ukraine in the first place, whereas Ukraine has no reserves other than what the West is willing to supply them with. Putin is not going to hold back from committing more of those forces if his own survival depends on it.

    The West isn't willing to supply any heavy equipment. For example, even 1% of NATO's stock of tanks is apparently beyond the Pale for an intimidated Biden. So in so far as Ukraine has been able to maintain its stock of servicable AFVs, it's had to rely on capturing and reusing salvagable equipment from the Russians, which reportedly it has done with some success so far. At least tanks can sometimes be salvaged, in contrast to planes. And the idea that Russia will fail to learn from past mistakes and go on repeating the failures of the first month is a big and questionable assumption on which I think the issue will turn.
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    Sunak is now dead.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    Sunak is now dead.

    WHAT?!!!
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    Bang on

    I’m amazed at the usually logical PB-ers defending extremely public physical assault. Will Smith was not being bullied. He’s an extremely powerful wealthy actor. He just lost his rag and did it in the most distressing way and forgot that he really IS a role model for millions

    A depressing thread indeed

    If he really wanted to humiliate Chris rock and make a point he could have quietly walked on stage and demanded an apology there and then. Explaining the alopecia.

    So much more powerful. The slap was absurd and demeaning for will smith

    Will Smith laughed at the joke when first made. What a tool. Violence over a joke is not the answer.
    Yes I noticed that. I think he was overreacting to the fact that he had laughed and his wife had not. He’s a small man and he overcompensated.
    Bloody hell, this whole episode is just a catalyst for peak pb wankerdom. He is 6'2" You saying he is kinda spiritually small?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682

    Russia’s threat to withdraw energy supplies from the EU is most interesting.

    I feel like both sides think the other is bluffing.

    One of the most serious games of bluff for a very long time
    Personally I think the EU will refuse Russia’s demands. Cue Europe-wide recession.
    The world is probably entering into an energy driven recession now already.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,893
    Scott_xP said:

    💥EXCLUSIVE from @breeallegretti

    Met police expected to imminently issue first fines for No 10 lockdown breaches

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/28/no-10-lockdown-breaches-met-police-expected-to-issue-first-fines

    I assume names redacted though.
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The post-Covid evidence on Britain’s post-Brexit trade performance is starting to come in - and it doesn’t look good https://www.ft.com/content/484db1cf-e65e-49b3-a71e-fdd915a874a6

    Look on the bright side. That will fill your evenings for the next few weeks trawling Twitter for stuff to post about it
    He does it in person? I assumed there was some kind of algorithm running...
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    More tragedy thanks to Vladolph:

    LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said.

    The two sources said soldiers in the convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear. The second Chernobyl employee said that was "suicidal" for the soldiers because the radioactive dust they inhaled was likely to cause internal radiation in their bodies.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/

    Did the Russians not think to check this out beforehand? Or did they and they just didn't care? What is the point of inflicting this on your own troops?
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,145
    IshmaelZ said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    Bang on

    I’m amazed at the usually logical PB-ers defending extremely public physical assault. Will Smith was not being bullied. He’s an extremely powerful wealthy actor. He just lost his rag and did it in the most distressing way and forgot that he really IS a role model for millions

    A depressing thread indeed

    If he really wanted to humiliate Chris rock and make a point he could have quietly walked on stage and demanded an apology there and then. Explaining the alopecia.

    So much more powerful. The slap was absurd and demeaning for will smith

    Will Smith laughed at the joke when first made. What a tool. Violence over a joke is not the answer.
    Yes I noticed that. I think he was overreacting to the fact that he had laughed and his wife had not. He’s a small man and he overcompensated.
    Bloody hell, this whole episode is just a catalyst for peak pb wankerdom. He is 6'2" You saying he is kinda spiritually small?
    Erm, no I’m just using the phrase “small man” in the way it’s used by other English speakers….
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    AlistairM said:

    More tragedy thanks to Vladolph:

    LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said.

    The two sources said soldiers in the convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear. The second Chernobyl employee said that was "suicidal" for the soldiers because the radioactive dust they inhaled was likely to cause internal radiation in their bodies.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/

    Did the Russians not think to check this out beforehand? Or did they and they just didn't care? What is the point of inflicting this on your own troops?
    If the Russians had thought beforehand they wouldn't be in Ukraine in the first place.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    More tragedy thanks to Vladolph:

    LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said.

    The two sources said soldiers in the convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear. The second Chernobyl employee said that was "suicidal" for the soldiers because the radioactive dust they inhaled was likely to cause internal radiation in their bodies.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/

    "Vladolph" is easily as clever and funny as "Bliar." Easily. Well done. It's just utterly fucking infantile. Do you think the readership needs nudging towards the idea that Putin is an evil man? Or that it is stupid enough, for calling him that to push them in that direction?
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited March 2022
    (1) Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words can never hurt me.

    (2) Crooks galore https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/john-eastman-trump-lawyer-capitol-attack-emails

    (3)Cyclefree added that a referendum in the Ukraine should "include the 30,000 people taken by the Russians from Mariupol and deported must be allowed to return and vote plus all those who used to live there." YES
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    I did an analysis a few years back on the impact of rising energy prices on GDP. Basically, countries that are importers (EU, UK, Japan, South Korea) get very badly hit.

    The worst hit country - IIRC - is actually Italy, because they have less renewables, negligible domestic energy resources, and quite a energy intensive economy. Japan also doesn't look good. We do a little better, because we still have some meaningful domestic oil & gas production, and we have very little heavy industry.

    I will try and drag out the data.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    biggles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    biggles said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As the final word on this whole Oscars business, and I say this as a big fan of Will Smith, I'd be very concerned about anyone who knows him - someone who lashes out physically so deliberately like that has probably done it before to others. You do it for a 'good' reason, you can find other 'good' reasons too. Bad day, didn't like what that person said, just being tough, etc.

    The continued shouting afterwards and the of manner it displays signs of somebody who has real anger issues.
    Being angry when someone abuses your wife and upsets her about her healthcare on an issue that's known to be sensitive is entirely reasonable.
    Yes, being angry about it is reasonable. Committing assault in response is not.

    It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.

    We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
    Bang on

    I’m amazed at the usually logical PB-ers defending extremely public physical assault. Will Smith was not being bullied. He’s an extremely powerful wealthy actor. He just lost his rag and did it in the most distressing way and forgot that he really IS a role model for millions

    A depressing thread indeed

    If he really wanted to humiliate Chris rock and make a point he could have quietly walked on stage and demanded an apology there and then. Explaining the alopecia.

    So much more powerful. The slap was absurd and demeaning for will smith

    Will Smith laughed at the joke when first made. What a tool. Violence over a joke is not the answer.
    Yes I noticed that. I think he was overreacting to the fact that he had laughed and his wife had not. He’s a small man and he overcompensated.
    Bloody hell, this whole episode is just a catalyst for peak pb wankerdom. He is 6'2" You saying he is kinda spiritually small?
    Erm, no I’m just using the phrase “small man” in the way it’s used by other English speakers….
    Well, it's my native tongue, and to me small means small.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    WTF.


    Gordon Lubold
    @glubold
    Leon Panetta says on CNN that Biden’s gaffe in Europe about regime change came about because Biden is Irish, and his instinct to internalize human suffering may have overwhelmed him to the point where he was not careful about what he said. Biden needs more discipline Panetta says

    https://twitter.com/glubold/status/1508513018702880778
This discussion has been closed.