I don't wish to belittle Rishi Sunak but he has all the worse traits of Gordon Brown and David Miliband.
A glass eye and an inability to eat a bacon sandwich?
It was EdM who had problems with the bacon sandwich
Arguably he didn’t have any problems with bacon bun, it was his lack of problem so enjoying the bacon bun that caused the problem.
And the invention of the internet.
The funniest bit of that incident was that it wasn't some photographer sneaking an unfair picture and catching EdM off-guard, it was actually a photo-opportunity which Labour had set up and invited the press to.
Just when you think the world has hit peak bonkersness we learn the Taliban in Afghanistan is closing schools to girls because they can't decide what they ought to wear.
Suspenders!!
i.e. the Taliban have suspended the reopening.
Seen on Blackpool pier......
WPC- "OK boys. Anything you say will be taken down and used in evidence"
I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.
My gas alone is apparently going from £48 to £174 a month. That's for a well insulated terraced house, with the thermostat set at about 16.5deg.
People claiming prices have doubled are wrong - that is only true if you were a mug on the price cap before all this started. My unit rate for gas has gone from 2.3p/Kwh to 7.8p/Kwh in twelve months - that's nearly quadrupled.
I simply don't see how the average family can hope to pay for this - I'm amazingly fortunate as I get married in 6 weeks, and suddenly there will be another income in my household. If that wasn't the case, I genuinely don't know where I would find the money - £1500pa of disposable income is a lot of money to find for a single person earning around the average wage.
That's before considering that I'm also spending about £15 a week more on fuel to commute, so that's another £780pa, and my electric bill has also more than doubled (it's not massive, but it's still about another £300pa).
If I'm even slightly typical, that's about a £2500pa increase, as a single person, living in a pretty efficient house. Before I bought out my employer's business last year I used to earn about £25k - which means about £20k take home PAYE.
£5k of that is mortgage. £1.5k of that is council tax. £1k of that was gas and electricity, before all this kicked off. £4k of that was fuel and car costs to commute.
That left ~£8.5k as food, clothes and disposable income. Which was comfortable enough if, like me, you've simple tastes - I used to have £50 a month to overpay to mortgage.
Losing 30% of that in 12months is a disaster of a magnitude that's hard to express - it basically would mean zero disposable income, and even then I would probably still be gradually eating into financial reserves.
Admittedly, its hard to see easy fixes for the government - but the only possible medium term solution is going to have to involve smaller government - less taxes, less spending. The problem is that we've two parties utterly committed to the opposite.
As the great @MartinSLewis flagged, workers who are taken out of National Insurance by the rising threshold will often be on Universal Credit. But they have a 'taper rate' which means they may pocket only £148 of the £330 gain from the tax change (Mirror estimate)
I don't wish to belittle Rishi Sunak but he has all the worse traits of Gordon Brown and David Miliband.
A glass eye and an inability to eat a bacon sandwich?
It was EdM who had problems with the bacon sandwich
Arguably he didn’t have any problems with bacon bun, it was his lack of problem so enjoying the bacon bun that caused the problem.
And the invention of the internet.
The funniest bit of that incident was that it wasn't some photographer sneaking an unfair picture and catching EdM off-guard, it was actually a photo-opportunity which Labour had set up and invited the press to.
It was a bit like when he set up that interview at his home to talk about what a normal kind of bloke he was, the interviewer turned up to see the hired help washing the car and the need for multiple kitchens for the help etc.
As the great @MartinSLewis flagged, workers who are taken out of National Insurance by the rising threshold will often be on Universal Credit. But they have a 'taper rate' which means they may pocket only £148 of the £330 gain from the tax change (Mirror estimate)
Why does Rishi hate the poor, he's happy to protect and funnel money to pensioners.
A fie upon Rishi.
Benefits and the state pension are both rising by 3.1%
Irrelevant given the way universal credit works and the fact pensioners don't pay NI.
Pensioners also don't drive so much so will benefit less from the fuel tax cut and the poorest were taken out of NI, the threshold of which will start at £12,570 from July
share a cheeky chat comment in my workplace course today on teams.
when advised by the presenter that a special A-Team had been set up to deal with a certain task , somebody put in the chat - But can we find them? (under 40's may not get this)
Its a fine line for politicians to appear in touch with people while also not trying too hard to sell a lie of them being just like everybody else. Call me Dave came a cropper a few times with this. Jezza had the opposite problem, not just like a lot of people for other reasons (or though in other ways he genuinely is).
As the great @MartinSLewis flagged, workers who are taken out of National Insurance by the rising threshold will often be on Universal Credit. But they have a 'taper rate' which means they may pocket only £148 of the £330 gain from the tax change (Mirror estimate)
So about £6 a week, which won't go far against all the other price rises, and ignoring the effect of freezing income tax thresholds. Depending how you slice and dice the comparisons, you can make them show all sorts of things. The big picture is still that people will be able to buy less stuff.
But really, all I want to say is that Fiscal Drag is the Evan Davis / RuPaul crossover show I think we all need right now.
This is why Chancellor's shouldn't make more than one budget/statement per tax year.
All at the same time, we've ended up with employee's and employer's NI rising, employee's NI 0% threshold rising significantly, but all other thresholds being frozen meaning real term tax hikes. And the promise of a smaller tax cut in two years on a slightly different type of income tax to the jobs tax being increased next month.
Clear as mud. Regressive. And favouring retirees over workers.
Heads up, on a subject we discussed on PB extensively recently.
Sunday, 27. March • 22:00 - 23:30 on Channel 4.
Falklands War: The Untold Story
Documentary
Documentary examining the Falklands conflict 40 years on. The head of the SAS in the Falklands, Sir Michael Rose, speaks publicly for the first time about the war, and how the British task force came close to defeat. Plus, ground troops and senior commanders, many for the first time, reveal how an unexpected change in the plan for the land campaign nearly cost Britain the war, and led to unnecessary loss of life at the iconic Battle of Goose Green, and in the sinking of the Sir Galahad.
As the great @MartinSLewis flagged, workers who are taken out of National Insurance by the rising threshold will often be on Universal Credit. But they have a 'taper rate' which means they may pocket only £148 of the £330 gain from the tax change (Mirror estimate)
Why does Rishi hate the poor, he's happy to protect and funnel money to pensioners.
A fie upon Rishi.
Benefits and the state pension are both rising by 3.1%
Irrelevant given the way universal credit works and the fact pensioners don't pay NI.
Pensioners also don't drive so much so will benefit less from the fuel tax cut and the poorest were taken out of NI, the threshold of which will start at £12,570 from July
This is why Chancellor's shouldn't make more than one budget/statement per tax year.
All at the same time, we've ended up with employee's and employer's NI rising, employee's NI 0% threshold rising significantly, but all other thresholds being frozen meaning real term tax hikes. And the promise of a smaller tax cut in two years on a slightly different type of income tax to the jobs tax being increased next month.
Clear as mud. Regressive. And favouring retirees over workers.
A complete mess.
Favouring blue party voters over others, is a deliberate tactic, not a mess. Wrong, immoral even but it is not being done by mistake.
Posting on PB from John O’Groats. The end of the world.
You think? See how long it takes you to get past Orkney to Sumburgh on Shetland, then keep going and going and going to the bird reserve on the north end of Unst ...
Have a nice time. Wick is nice. Pulteneytown and the steps down to the harbour are rather good, and the fishing museum worth a glance and a smell if you like that sort of thing (it is in an old smokehouse IIRC). And the local malt whisky is very good.
If you want a circular walk, try from Wick Harbour north widdershins (Anglice, counterclockwise) along the coast and back southwest to Ackergill then cut inland to the river and walk down to Wick. Some nice birds depending on time of year.
PS But further afield there are other coastal walks - I believe the one just E of THurso is good. Dunnet/Duncansby. Was a long time ago so memory blurs.
I love Old Pulteney.
Old Pulteney 21 is the smoothest most delicious whiskey I have ever drunk. Havn’t seen 21 for a while but I still have some 18 left in a bottle.
Is there anything smoother or more delicious than Old Pulteney 21?
Opinium finds 69% of voters back the fuel tax cut, 77% back the increase in NI allowance and 67% back increasing funding to local councils to help those who are struggling and 63% back the increase in employment allowance
Opinium finds 69% of voters back the fuel tax cut, 77% back the increase in NI allowance and 67% back increasing funding to local councils to help those who are struggling and 63% back the increase in employment allowance
As the great @MartinSLewis flagged, workers who are taken out of National Insurance by the rising threshold will often be on Universal Credit. But they have a 'taper rate' which means they may pocket only £148 of the £330 gain from the tax change (Mirror estimate)
Why does Rishi hate the poor, he's happy to protect and funnel money to pensioners.
A fie upon Rishi.
Benefits and the state pension are both rising by 3.1%
Irrelevant given the way universal credit works and the fact pensioners don't pay NI.
Pensioners also don't drive so much so will benefit less from the fuel tax cut and the poorest were taken out of NI, the threshold of which will start at £12,570 from July
You never met my parents I take it?
Only 67% of over 70s have a driving licence, compared to over 80% of 40 to 69 year olds and 79% of 30 to 39 year olds
Here's another thing: it looks less likely than it did, but it is still possible that this was RS's last chance to show a bit of ankle to the parl party and the membership before a leadership election, bringing the hatred of the poor more front and centre than it otherwise would be
Opinium finds 69% of voters back the fuel tax cut, 77% back the increase in NI allowance and 67% back increasing funding to local councils to help those who are struggling and 63% back the increase in employment allowance
What are the odds (this IS ostensibly a betting site) that for foreseeable future, we'll be hearing more "woke" and less "budget" from Tories here & elsewhere?
Evens.
I reckon we ought to discuss the R word to show PB is ahead of media game.
But surely the big take out from the Chancellors Statement for me is how fragile growth forecast looking in years ahead. 😟
On the last thread StillWaters (thanks for the answer) replied “fiscal loosening when recession looks likely” you mean feed an inflationary high growth year with more fiscal loosening? I’m convinced it’s got to be the opposite, tax early tax often to prevent boom and bust. I think Sunak is aiding and abetting a recession with his budgets - maybe just a boom year bust year recession, maybe joined up into years of depression in Brexit Britain - nonetheless without anyone in media flagging up the risk of this happening!
What I would have done today, in MoonRabbit budget, is taxed those who won’t suffer credit crunch much an awful lot more, but not given all of that back to poor households to spend. I would have done this as a macro measure against the fall/winter 2023/24 recession being further stoked this year. A belt tightening budget has to be necessary sometimes, but has to be done pragmatically and fairly. I don’t see Sunak’s today as a necessary belt tightening statement in either policy or communication.
Despite the fact Starmer is a bad bet for next PM because the pathetic seat calculators can’t compute the fact midlands still solidly Tory, meaning the current polls merely tell us Labour stack up votes where they don’t need them and currently heading for failure in next election, Starmer falling way short of being PM in any coalition - a recession in 23 or 24 could actually help Starmer become PM. So what are the Tories doing right now, today, to avoid that recession?
Opinium finds 69% of voters back the fuel tax cut, 77% back the increase in NI allowance and 67% back increasing funding to local councils to help those who are struggling and 63% back the increase in employment allowance
This is why Chancellor's shouldn't make more than one budget/statement per tax year.
All at the same time, we've ended up with employee's and employer's NI rising, employee's NI 0% threshold rising significantly, but all other thresholds being frozen meaning real term tax hikes. And the promise of a smaller tax cut in two years on a slightly different type of income tax to the jobs tax being increased next month.
Clear as mud. Regressive. And favouring retirees over workers.
A complete mess.
However, if it's regressive and nasty, reducing clarity is an excellent plan.
Having said that, it could just be that an undercooked Rishi is dabbling with forces he doesn't really understand, hence the frantic correction and re-correction.
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Rishi Sunak doesn't like being photographed with Simon Clarke
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
So Rishi Sunak has his day in the sun (or the Sun) and an evening at a petrol station.
What do I think? He's tried to put out a raging fire with a glass of water. Credit to him for trying but it's not much more than that as inflation and the pre-planned tax rises will sweep away any benefit.
The NI changes in July will of course help the lower paid and they were the gap in the Coalition tax reforms from 2010-15 which took so many of the lowest paid out of paying income tax but kept them paying NI - politics means Sunak can't do what would be demonstrably fair and make working pensioners pay NI.
Before the Spring Statement, petrol at my local Tesco's was 162.9p per litre and diesel 174.9p per litre - I'll try and have a look tomorrow to see if more than the 5p has been passed on (we know some supermarkets will take an extra penny off for some good publicity now and put it back on in a couple of weeks).
The impact of raging inflation on the public finances is going to be noticeable - needless to say inflation in key sectors as the provision of care to vulnerable adults and children is going to outstrip the actual RPI or CPI measures and that will mean Councils wanting more money when, I suspect, the Government will want to give them less but that's going to be 2023's problem.
The other side is the irresistible calls for increasing defence spending (assuming we are moving into Cold War 2.0) which will have to be funded somehow from somewhere. How will all this be managed if rising inflation chokes off economic growth (as some forecasters suggest)?
Unfortunately, while we probably need a politically unambitious technocratic Chancellor right now, we've got a man who thinks he has one foot inside No.10 already and will clearly do anything to put both feet over the threshold and is, if anything, even more desperate to be liked than the current occupant of No.10.
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Rishi Sunak doesn't like being photographed with Simon Clarke
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Rishi Sunak doesn't like being photographed with Simon Clarke
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
Like this?
Someone has been studying perspective, and M C Escher's mangling of it, very carefully.
Simon Clarke defending govt very ably on C4 news - could be one to watch for the future. Also really tall
I think Clarke is very good. He sounds serious and posh. Reeves sounds too common to be trusted with Nation’s finances?
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Rishi Sunak doesn't like being photographed with Simon Clarke
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
And borrower is not the nickname you want in the HM Treasury
What's extra awful for Rishi is he doesn't even get the standard partisan bonus from Tories or Leave voters. This is an across the board shite reception.
I'm really struggling to see how the UK (and wider west other than the US) exits the current disaster of high inflation and not high enough wage growth. At least in the UK we've got wage growth of just below inflation, I fear for countries across Europe where wage growth is 2-3% per year vs 7-9% inflation. People there are really going to suffer and no one has any answers for them.
I also think the government needs to take a look at index linked gilts, it may be time to wind down selling them and slowly replacing the existing stock with standard coupon gilts. The reason our debt interest bill is so excruciating is because around 30% of total gilt stock is inflation linked, there's really been no need for the government to take this penalty and it's another one of those instruments that exists to protect pension incomes by funnelling tax receipts from working age people to pension funds who hold index linked gilts.
As ever the UK as a society seems as though it exists to serve the over 60s, fucking over everyone else in the process.
Linkers are cheaper for the government because investors aren’t taking inflation risk. So it’s prudent balance sheet financing strategy. But it doesn’t always work.
It’s not part of some nefarious agenda to screw you personally Max
Russia’s move to transfer almost 800 foreign jets to its own aircraft register in the face of foreign sanctions has triggered a wave of insurance claims from leasing firms that own them
Just seen this tweet from some Chechen organisation. It claims that in its linked video clip the French news channel BFM's journalists are talking enthusiastically about the Chechens' heroism. My thirty year old French GCSE isn't helping me understand the video at all; are the presenters enthusiastically saying anything of the kind?
Репортаж на телеканале BFMTV о чеченском батальоне в Украине имени Шейха Мансура, съёмки реальных боев включены в репортаж. Французские журналисты с восторгом говорят о героизме сражающихся чеченцев
Ссылка на оригинал
A report on the BFMTV channel about the Chechen battalion in Ukraine named after Sheikh Mansour, filming of real battles is included in the report. French journalists enthusiastically talk about the heroism of the fighting Chechens
They are saying that the Chechens are very strong, effective, battle-hardened fighters, and that some of them are very loyal to Putin. They also say that there are Chechens who hate Russia and are equally good fighters, and are fighting on the Ukrainian side.
There’s a great deal of commentary suggesting that Putin’s Chechens aren’t doing much fighting. Rather they’re being used as enforcers both against civilians, and reluctant Russian conscripts.
Comments
WPC- "OK boys. Anything you say will be taken down and used in evidence"
Boys- "KNICKERS"
People claiming prices have doubled are wrong - that is only true if you were a mug on the price cap before all this started. My unit rate for gas has gone from 2.3p/Kwh to 7.8p/Kwh in twelve months - that's nearly quadrupled.
I simply don't see how the average family can hope to pay for this - I'm amazingly fortunate as I get married in 6 weeks, and suddenly there will be another income in my household. If that wasn't the case, I genuinely don't know where I would find the money - £1500pa of disposable income is a lot of money to find for a single person earning around the average wage.
That's before considering that I'm also spending about £15 a week more on fuel to commute, so that's another £780pa, and my electric bill has also more than doubled (it's not massive, but it's still about another £300pa).
If I'm even slightly typical, that's about a £2500pa increase, as a single person, living in a pretty efficient house.
Before I bought out my employer's business last year I used to earn about £25k - which means about £20k take home PAYE.
£5k of that is mortgage.
£1.5k of that is council tax.
£1k of that was gas and electricity, before all this kicked off.
£4k of that was fuel and car costs to commute.
That left ~£8.5k as food, clothes and disposable income. Which was comfortable enough if, like me, you've simple tastes - I used to have £50 a month to overpay to mortgage.
Losing 30% of that in 12months is a disaster of a magnitude that's hard to express - it basically would mean zero disposable income, and even then I would probably still be gradually eating into financial reserves.
Admittedly, its hard to see easy fixes for the government - but the only possible medium term solution is going to have to involve smaller government - less taxes, less spending. The problem is that we've two parties utterly committed to the opposite.
when advised by the presenter that a special A-Team had been set up to deal with a certain task , somebody put in the chat - But can we find them? (under 40's may not get this)
It’s the sort of stuff they say all the time in Sheffield. Make a detour round the place my Dad always warned me.
But really, all I want to say is that Fiscal Drag is the Evan Davis / RuPaul crossover show I think we all need right now.
All at the same time, we've ended up with employee's and employer's NI rising, employee's NI 0% threshold rising significantly, but all other thresholds being frozen meaning real term tax hikes. And the promise of a smaller tax cut in two years on a slightly different type of income tax to the jobs tax being increased next month.
Clear as mud. Regressive. And favouring retirees over workers.
A complete mess.
The political question that I am not clear the Tory Party has yet defined for next time. What is the risk of giving Labour a go?
An astute point, which will look even more astute when the cost of living crisis fully kicks in.
Is there anything smoother or more delicious than Old Pulteney 21?
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1506705394747555847?s=20&t=RasMn_VS1a-xHlHP_6iX8A
https://www.statista.com/statistics/314898/share-driving-licence-holders-by-age-england/
Not a nice man
But surely the big take out from the Chancellors Statement for me is how fragile growth forecast looking in years ahead. 😟
On the last thread StillWaters (thanks for the answer) replied “fiscal loosening when recession looks likely” you mean feed an inflationary high growth year with more fiscal loosening?
I’m convinced it’s got to be the opposite, tax early tax often to prevent boom and bust. I think Sunak is aiding and abetting a recession with his budgets - maybe just a boom year bust year recession, maybe joined up into years of depression in Brexit Britain - nonetheless without anyone in media flagging up the risk of this happening!
What I would have done today, in MoonRabbit budget, is taxed those who won’t suffer credit crunch much an awful lot more, but not given all of that back to poor households to spend. I would have done this as a macro measure against the fall/winter 2023/24 recession being further stoked this year. A belt tightening budget has to be necessary sometimes, but has to be done pragmatically and fairly. I don’t see Sunak’s today as a necessary belt tightening statement in either policy or communication.
Despite the fact Starmer is a bad bet for next PM because the pathetic seat calculators can’t compute the fact midlands still solidly Tory, meaning the current polls merely tell us Labour stack up votes where they don’t need them and currently heading for failure in next election, Starmer falling way short of being PM in any coalition - a recession in 23 or 24 could actually help Starmer become PM. So what are the Tories doing right now, today, to avoid that recession?
Having said that, it could just be that an undercooked Rishi is dabbling with forces he doesn't really understand, hence the frantic correction and re-correction.
Clarke Didn’t get chance to stand outside 11 with his boss and rest of team today though for some reason. Not proper policy budget mere statement I guess.
Simon Clarke is 6ft 7inches tall, stood next to Sunak he makes Sunak look like a borrower.
So Rishi Sunak has his day in the sun (or the Sun) and an evening at a petrol station.
What do I think? He's tried to put out a raging fire with a glass of water. Credit to him for trying but it's not much more than that as inflation and the pre-planned tax rises will sweep away any benefit.
The NI changes in July will of course help the lower paid and they were the gap in the Coalition tax reforms from 2010-15 which took so many of the lowest paid out of paying income tax but kept them paying NI - politics means Sunak can't do what would be demonstrably fair and make working pensioners pay NI.
Before the Spring Statement, petrol at my local Tesco's was 162.9p per litre and diesel 174.9p per litre - I'll try and have a look tomorrow to see if more than the 5p has been passed on (we know some supermarkets will take an extra penny off for some good publicity now and put it back on in a couple of weeks).
The impact of raging inflation on the public finances is going to be noticeable - needless to say inflation in key sectors as the provision of care to vulnerable adults and children is going to outstrip the actual RPI or CPI measures and that will mean Councils wanting more money when, I suspect, the Government will want to give them less but that's going to be 2023's problem.
The other side is the irresistible calls for increasing defence spending (assuming we are moving into Cold War 2.0) which will have to be funded somehow from somewhere. How will all this be managed if rising inflation chokes off economic growth (as some forecasters suggest)?
Unfortunately, while we probably need a politically unambitious technocratic Chancellor right now, we've got a man who thinks he has one foot inside No.10 already and will clearly do anything to put both feet over the threshold and is, if anything, even more desperate to be liked than the current occupant of No.10.
New thread - already
It’s not part of some nefarious agenda to screw you personally Max
Rather they’re being used as enforcers both against civilians, and reluctant Russian conscripts.