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First Spring Statement polling has just 13% thinking they will benefit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,571
edited March 2022 in General
imageFirst Spring Statement polling has just 13% thinking they will benefit – politicalbetting.com

I never know what to make of instant polling like the above from YouGov. Clearly it will take some time before the details of what Sunak announced this afternoon sink in and mostly what the sample responded is based on media responses.

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,589
    MattW said:


    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MattW said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Spanish property. Investment. Hedge against inflation?

    Is Spain the best place to be buying in investment property if the world economy might take a dump? Serious question, I don't know, just instinctively doesn't feel so.
    Go Portugal, then you can get the citizenship.
    Haven't they recently changed those laws, so that the path to citizenship via the property buying route is restricted to buying properties in only certain shall we say less fashionable areas i.e. not the Algarve, which has a very solid property market.
    When I last looked, it seemed they had just suspended it for Russia and Belarus.

    (Checks)

    Most countries seem to be described have temporarily halted it for Russians. Which sounds like leaving a backtrack open depending on circs.

    https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-these-eu-countries-have-so-far-suspended-golden-visas-for-russians/

    And iirc in Portugal they tend to get Chinese not Russians.
    As of 2022 Minimum Amount Required....

    Amounts remain the same; geographical restrictions will apply. Residential properties in Lisbon, Porto, or along the coast won’t qualify

    https://getgoldenvisa.com/portugal-golden-visa-changes
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Second like Johnson
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,589
    Roger said:

    Heard Rachel Reeves earlier. She was very good. A little work on her presentation and Labour have a star in the wings. Her stats on this government's performance were breathtaking

    .....and not in a good way!

    Better get your bets on that she will be out of a job in a year then...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    edited March 2022
    4th (rate) like Sunaks statement
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Victory for @ForwomenScot as their remedy hearing confirmed that the faulty definition of “woman” will be removed from the Gender Representation on Public Boards Act

    https://twitter.com/TheCriticMag/status/1506675686320316417
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,774
    If good budgets on the night look bad in the morning, and bad budgets look better in the cold light of day, a mediocre budget probably just sits there like a damp towel you should have taken out of your kid's sports bag much sooner than you did.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    Serious question, is Rishi the most regressive Chancellor in modern history?

    I really can’t believe this package does next to nothing for those getting hardest hit by rising prices - those who are disabled and not working just got told they are on their own (after losing £1000 income in the Autumn)

    https://twitter.com/torstenbell/status/1506631735089500167?s=21
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    A polished turd is still a turd.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,237
    edited March 2022
    Prediction - when it comes to uprating benefits for 2023-24, Sunak will suddenly change his mind about basing it on year-to-September CPI.

    Absolutely no way he increases them by 8% next year.

    (Might not be quite as high as 8% - it's the average from Oct 21 - Sep 22)
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    bigjohnowls said:

    4th (rate) like Sunaks statement

    Welcome back to Labour BJO
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,788
    For what it's worth, I think this is one of the worst budgets I can remember.

    Simply appalling judgment and failure to recognize how people are struggling/will struggle and making it even more attractive to have unearned rather than earned income.

    Shocking.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,774
    Jonathan said:

    A polished turd is still a turd.

    I agree with @Richard_Nabavi - the problem is that it festers...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    4th (rate) like Sunaks statement

    Welcome back to Labour BJO
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    4th (rate) like Sunaks statement

    Welcome back to Labour BJO
    Why has Starmer gone!!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451
    edited March 2022
    Gardenwalker said:

    Serious question, is Rishi the most regressive Chancellor in modern history?

    I really can’t believe this package does next to nothing for those getting hardest hit by rising prices - those who are disabled and not working just got told they are on their own (after losing £1000 income in the Autumn)

    https://twitter.com/torstenbell/status/1506631735089500167?s=21

    Torsten Bell is absolutely right.

    It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, though - Sunak did absolutely nothing to stop the both economically and socially lunatic benefit cut last year, even before the worst of all this.

    The evidence looks very much to be, that beneath all the polished charm, he simply doesn't care.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Labour 10 point lead nailed on
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    A polished turd is still a turd.

    I agree with @Richard_Nabavi - the problem is that it festers...
    Less a towel in your kid’s school bag, and more just a shit someone left in there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,788
    Gardenwalker said:

    Serious question, is Rishi the most regressive Chancellor in modern history?

    I really can’t believe this package does next to nothing for those getting hardest hit by rising prices - those who are disabled and not working just got told they are on their own (after losing £1000 income in the Autumn)

    https://twitter.com/torstenbell/status/1506631735089500167?s=21

    It is appalling. Utterly appalling. He couldn't give a flying fuck could he? Just about jockeying for leadership if Johnson falls over partygate.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Russia’s move to transfer almost 800 foreign jets to its own aircraft register in the face of foreign sanctions has triggered a wave of insurance claims from leasing firms that own them

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1506687451695357953
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,788
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    And the disabled can just freeze to death.

    Are there no workhouses?
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    https://mobile.twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1506674345581727750

    Would be nice to have more Northern Ireland polling. I still think the DUP will get about 20% although can't quite see them coming 1st (and I don't see DUP+UUP+TUV below 40%) but I can see them underperforming in seats and can see nationalist parties and Alliance having more efficient seat distribution than the Unionist parties.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,119
    FPT, but relevant;
    Gardenwalker said:

    Real average earnings no longer expected to recover 2008 levels at any point in the OBR forecast.

    (contains chart).

    https://twitter.com/alfie_stirling/status/1506646585802907656?s=21

    Didn't someone (though it may have been a talking bag of custard, now I think about it) say that real earnings growth was the true measure of governmental success?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,932
    rottenborough said:

    For what it's worth, I think this is one of the worst budgets I can remember.

    Simply appalling judgment and failure to recognize how people are struggling/will struggle and making it even more attractive to have unearned rather than earned income.

    Shocking.

    I'm sorry, but unearned income has always been, and will always be, more appealing than earned income!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    edited March 2022
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,788
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Roger said:

    Heard Rachel Reeves earlier. She was very good. A little work on her presentation and Labour have a star in the wings. Her stats on this government's performance were breathtaking

    .....and not in a good way!

    Better get your bets on that she will be out of a job in a year then...
    Either Reeves or Cooper will be LOTO when Starmer falls after failing to win in 2024. Or possibly Philipson, but she is inexperienced.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,212
    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,311
    What's extra awful for Rishi is he doesn't even get the standard partisan bonus from Tories or Leave voters. This is an across the board shite reception.

    I'm really struggling to see how the UK (and wider west other than the US) exits the current disaster of high inflation and not high enough wage growth. At least in the UK we've got wage growth of just below inflation, I fear for countries across Europe where wage growth is 2-3% per year vs 7-9% inflation. People there are really going to suffer and no one has any answers for them.

    I also think the government needs to take a look at index linked gilts, it may be time to wind down selling them and slowly replacing the existing stock with standard coupon gilts. The reason our debt interest bill is so excruciating is because around 30% of total gilt stock is inflation linked, there's really been no need for the government to take this penalty and it's another one of those instruments that exists to protect pension incomes by funnelling tax receipts from working age people to pension funds who hold index linked gilts.

    As ever the UK as a society seems as though it exists to serve the over 60s, fucking over everyone else in the process.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    Russia’s move to transfer almost 800 foreign jets to its own aircraft register in the face of foreign sanctions has triggered a wave of insurance claims from leasing firms that own them

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1506687451695357953

    Interesting - the article claims most of the possible $10bn hit is going to fall on Lloyd's, with only 40% reinsured.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,847
    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited March 2022
    Barnesian said:

    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.

    Mine is £800 to £1600
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,250
    Following today's #SpringStatement2022 Chancellor @RishiSunak visited New Cross @Sainsburys and petrol station to talk to shoppers about how they’ll be helped by the tax cuts we introduced today. https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1506690486152699911/photo/1


    Filling up before 6pm. Numpty
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,299
    I don't trust these snap polls. Most folk won't even have heard there was a Budget today, yet.
    But they are stunningly poor figures nonetheless.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,642
    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    And the disabled can just freeze to death.

    Are there no workhouses?
    Don't give them ideas.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Interesting on page 63 of the OBR book - "since 2019 the UK appears to have become a less trade intensive economy with trade as % of GDP falling 12% since 2019 - two and a half times more than any other G7 country".
    https://twitter.com/BBCSimonJack/status/1506671189544034305
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,250
    They are here. 52 orphaned Ukrainian children are checked in, onboard, and now ready to fly to a safe haven in the UK.

    They will soon be living in Scotland where they already have accommodation sorted and all of the group can stay together. @itvnews     https://twitter.com/PeterAdamSmith/status/1506688985753694214/photo/1
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,216
    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    And I'd vote for Starmer. At the moment. Despite a *load* of questions about Labour's prospectus. And a fear of the far left infiltrating it like a cancer after he wins.

    Interestingly, our constituency is becoming increasingly marginal. Though with the LD, not Labour.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    edited March 2022
    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    Boris in that instance as the best chance of Starmer losing an MP although in policy closer to Green
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,250
    SouthamObserver said:

    Interesting on page 63 of the OBR book - "since 2019 the UK appears to have become a less trade intensive economy with trade as % of GDP falling 12% since 2019 - two and a half times more than any other G7 country".
    https://twitter.com/BBCSimonJack/status/1506671189544034305

    I wonder if we will ever find out the cause...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,119
    Carnyx said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    And the disabled can just freeze to death.

    Are there no workhouses?
    Don't give them ideas.
    What makes you think the government have the spare cash to set up workhouses?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    bigjohnowls said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    Boris in that instance as the best chance of Starmer losing an NO although in policy closer to Green
    What an astonishing chump you are.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Barnesian said:

    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.

    Mine is £800 to £1600
    Not a month
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,589
    edited March 2022
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Barnesian said:

    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.

    Mine is £800 to £1600
    Are you running a cannabis grow house?

    (I know you probably mean yearly)
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Is it worth putting a bet on Johnson to lose his seat?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Barnesian said:

    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.

    Mine is £800 to £1600
    Are you running a cannabis grow house?

    (I know you probably mean yearly)
    Yes, feel free to pop over
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,642
    Stuartinromford said:

    Carnyx said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    And the disabled can just freeze to death.

    Are there no workhouses?
    Don't give them ideas.
    What makes you think the government have the spare cash to set up workhouses?
    Just contract them out. Like they did with prisons, Newgate and so on. Come to think of it, like they now do with prisons.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,633
    Scott_xP said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Interesting on page 63 of the OBR book - "since 2019 the UK appears to have become a less trade intensive economy with trade as % of GDP falling 12% since 2019 - two and a half times more than any other G7 country".
    https://twitter.com/BBCSimonJack/status/1506671189544034305

    I wonder if we will ever find out the cause...
    It's a real head scratcher isn't it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    Stuartinromford said:

    Carnyx said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    And the disabled can just freeze to death.

    Are there no workhouses?
    Don't give them ideas.
    What makes you think the government have the spare cash to set up workhouses?
    I believe workhouses were a Liberal policy.

    The Tories will be looking to restore the old Elizabethan beggars and vagrancy laws.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Barnesian said:

    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.

    Yes but you will get a 1p Tax cut in 2024!!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Interesting on page 63 of the OBR book - "since 2019 the UK appears to have become a less trade intensive economy with trade as % of GDP falling 12% since 2019 - two and a half times more than any other G7 country".
    https://twitter.com/BBCSimonJack/status/1506671189544034305

    I wonder if we will ever find out the cause...
    It's a real head scratcher isn't it.
    I for one am shocked that the face-eating leopards policy has resulted in some faces being eaten.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2022
    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage costs.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    edited March 2022
    Gardenwalker said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    Boris in that instance as the best chance of Starmer losing an NO although in policy closer to Green
    What an astonishing chump you are.
    Gardenwalker said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    Boris in that instance as the best chance of Starmer losing an NO although in policy closer to Green
    What an astonishing chump you are.
    Thanks always vote the opposite to GardenWalker that's my motto
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,642
    Gardenwalker said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Carnyx said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    And the disabled can just freeze to death.

    Are there no workhouses?
    Don't give them ideas.
    What makes you think the government have the spare cash to set up workhouses?
    I believe workhouses were a Liberal policy.

    The Tories will be looking to restore the old Elizabethan beggars and vagrancy laws.
    Just visualising the ScoTories campaigning to make the Kirk responsible for looking after the poor and charging us all teinds according to our wealth and real estate ... so perhaps not the ScoTories!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,649
    Eabhal said:

    Prediction - when it comes to uprating benefits for 2023-24, Sunak will suddenly change his mind about basing it on year-to-September CPI.

    Absolutely no way he increases them by 8% next year.

    (Might not be quite as high as 8% - it's the average from Oct 21 - Sep 22)

    Yes, that's a safe prediction. He will argue it's unfair to those in work who won't have seen pay rises keep up with inflation.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,642
    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    Now, now, less of the Europe. The Brexiters don't like that comparison, for two reasons at least.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Any reports from Red Wall country?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    bigjohnowls said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    Boris in that instance as the best chance of Starmer losing an NO although in policy closer to Green
    What an astonishing chump you are.
    Gardenwalker said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    Boris in that instance as the best chance of Starmer losing an NO although in policy closer to Green
    What an astonishing chump you are.
    Thanks always vote the opposite to GardenWalker that's my motto
    That’s seems a rather stupid way to decide your vote.

    Why don’t you vote on who you think will improve the lot of the country?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage costs.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Yep, we are now entering a sustained period of falling living standards and declining public services, presided over by a government that doesn't give any impression that it is particularly concerned.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    edited March 2022
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage costs.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Yep, we are now entering a sustained period of falling living standards and declining public services, presided over by a government that doesn't give any impression that it is particularly concerned.

    I believe the official government view is that the issue doesn’t exist and we are “world beating” our way to the fastest (insert x) in the G7.

    And, if you’re very old and deluded, scared of the woke, and get your news from Farage-adjacent media —- it might just sound persuasive.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451
    edited March 2022
    The 1970's had similar levels of inflation, but also far lower levels of social inequality.

    The effects of similar economic shocks, combined with post-Thatcherite levels of inequality, are not going to be great.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,311
    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    The outlook is way, way worse across Europe, there's still signs of life in the UK economy, in some parts of Europe there's nothing. Just surging costs, no wage rises, huge tax rises, promise of state investment that never arrives and rapidly dropping consumer sentiment.

    Even though I love Italy, the idea of living there is a disaster, what's happening here in terms of hollowing out working age incomes to protect oldies is happening all across the continent at an even worse rate. Macron can't even get the bloody pension age up from 62 to 65 without riots in the streets, old age spending in the UK is bad at around 20% of GDP, across the continent that number is hitting 25% already and rising fast leaving almost no room for investment in services or infrastructure.

    I'm starting to think that maybe we should have just let COVID rip, it would have solved the care, healthcare and pensions cost crisis within a year and we would have saved £400bn in furlough and other expenses.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,289
    Carnyx said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    Now, now, less of the Europe. The Brexiters don't like that comparison, for two reasons at least.
    Pish to that parochial European sick man malarkey, we're global invalids!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,427
    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    We'll cope. Heartbroken at losing you, but we'll cope.

    Enjoy life in the Land of the Free. (Apart from the healthcare.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208
    edited March 2022
    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    Which major European economies do you think are best placed to withstand a prolonged conflict with Russia?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage costs.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Yep, we are now entering a sustained period of falling living standards and declining public services, presided over by a government that doesn't give any impression that it is particularly concerned.

    This is going to be the case across the west, if not the world.

    We have had a global plague, now we have a terrible war( (and the plague is still rumbling on, with perhaps famine to come?)

    I'm not defending this government but the global economy has just been served two enormous cauldrons of shit to eat, so everything will have the savour of shit for quite a while
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,451
    edited March 2022
    Societies that are both more equal, and economically performing better, will probably weather the social and economic storms better.

    The usual suspects - northwestern Europe beyond the UK, and possibly countries like Canada , too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,240
    Sweden to provide Ukraine with 5,000 more anti-tank weapons - Reuters
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1506687830067757059
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,200
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    We'll cope. Heartbroken at losing you, but we'll cope.

    Enjoy life in the Land of the Free. (Apart from the healthcare.)
    The land of the free. Where almost nothing is. And you cannot even cross the road where you want.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,719
    Barnesian said:

    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.

    Are you just reaching the end of a Fixed deal? ,because that's an enormous jump. My figures have gone from 150 to 233 a month, both standard variable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Societies that are both more equal, and economically performing better, will probably weather the social and economic storms better.

    The usual suspects - north-western Europe beyond the UK.

    Provided they're not too dependent on Russian gas... you want to be in Norway, perhaps. And actually France should be relatively well placed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780
    IanB2 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    We'll cope. Heartbroken at losing you, but we'll cope.

    Enjoy life in the Land of the Free. (Apart from the healthcare.)
    The land of the free. Where almost nothing is. And you cannot even cross the road where you want.
    And when you do get to the other side of the road, a homeless crazy man on Fentanyl will shoot you dead in revenge for your *privilege*
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    MaxPB said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    The outlook is way, way worse across Europe, there's still signs of life in the UK economy, in some parts of Europe there's nothing. Just surging costs, no wage rises, huge tax rises, promise of state investment that never arrives and rapidly dropping consumer sentiment.

    Even though I love Italy, the idea of living there is a disaster, what's happening here in terms of hollowing out working age incomes to protect oldies is happening all across the continent at an even worse rate. Macron can't even get the bloody pension age up from 62 to 65 without riots in the streets, old age spending in the UK is bad at around 20% of GDP, across the continent that number is hitting 25% already and rising fast leaving almost no room for investment in services or infrastructure.

    I'm starting to think that maybe we should have just let COVID rip, it would have solved the care, healthcare and pensions cost crisis within a year and we would have saved £400bn in furlough and other expenses.
    Well, I moved to the US.

    But I am far less pessimistic about Europe than you seem to be.

    Not Italy, of course, but Italy is in an even worse state than the UK.

    I think, were I a “middle income” earning household (say, £100k?) with two kids…I would be content to move to most of Northern Europe.

    Even the Balts and Czech are looking OK these days.

    I’m trying to balance everything up in my thinking here - quality of life, taxation, public services, and the chance for my kids to live a normal lifestyle.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2022
    Just when you think the world has hit peak bonkersness we learn the Taliban in Afghanistan is closing schools to girls because they can't decide what they ought to wear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,589
    edited March 2022
    Interesting video on affect of sanction on Russia for the Global Flint Knapper travellers...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrTrpwzVt4g
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Any reports from Red Wall country?

    Yes, I’ve just become a great uncle!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    williamglenn said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    Which major European economies do you think are best placed to withstand a prolonged conflict with Russia?
    I doubt any European economy is well placed to withstand a “prolonged conflict with Russia”.

    What a daft question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,773
    If you earn between 9.6 and 34k* the changes leave you better off than the counterfactual.
    *Decreases with car use
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,589
    Roger said:

    Just when you think the world has hit peak bonkersness we learn the Taliban in Afghanistan is closing schools to girls because they can't decide what they ought to wear.

    You think that is the real reason?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,773
    Increases even
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    We'll cope. Heartbroken at losing you, but we'll cope.

    Enjoy life in the Land of the Free. (Apart from the healthcare.)
    Don’t worry I’ll be back.
    Did you see West Side Story btw?
    I think it’s a terrible shame it bombed at the box office.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,212
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Barnesian said:

    I've just been informed that my energy bill (gas and electricity) is going to increase from £74 a month to £242. That's more than I expected.

    Are you just reaching the end of a Fixed deal? ,because that's an enormous jump. My figures have gone from 150 to 233 a month, both standard variable.
    Yes I am. Fixed deal with Avro taken over by Octopus.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,738
    Rishi is a busted flush.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208
    Gardenwalker said:

    williamglenn said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    Which major European economies do you think are best placed to withstand a prolonged conflict with Russia?
    I doubt any European economy is well placed to withstand a “prolonged conflict with Russia”.

    What a daft question.
    You asserted that Britain is the sick man of Europe, so presumably you think that we will be worst affected by the economic war that is opening up? Or haven't you given it any thought?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Roger said:

    Just when you think the world has hit peak bonkersness we learn the Taliban in Afghanistan is closing schools to girls because they can't decide what they ought to wear.

    Suspenders!!

    i.e. the Taliban have suspended the reopening.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    Pulpstar said:

    If you earn between 9.6 and 34k* the changes leave you better off than the counterfactual.
    *Decreases with car use

    Are you accounting for inflation?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,200
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage costs.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    And almost all of it would have happened without the war. So they are lucky in having Putin to blame, and for Brexit being pushed out of the news almost completely.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780
    It's the Express, but still. Interesting (and macabre)


    "Putin is killing his OWN men with Stalin-style ‘execution squads’

    "VLADIMIR Putin is reportedly using "execution squads" to kill defectors in a desperate effort to hold back the number of Russian soldiers fleeing from the invasion of Ukraine."

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1585099/Putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-stalin-soldiers-surrender-conscripts
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Leon said:

    It's the Express, but still. Interesting (and macabre)


    "Putin is killing his OWN men with Stalin-style ‘execution squads’

    "VLADIMIR Putin is reportedly using "execution squads" to kill defectors in a desperate effort to hold back the number of Russian soldiers fleeing from the invasion of Ukraine."

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1585099/Putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-stalin-soldiers-surrender-conscripts

    The mass executions will continue until morale improves.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,208
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Societies that are both more equal, and economically performing better, will probably weather the social and economic storms better.

    The usual suspects - north-western Europe beyond the UK.

    Provided they're not too dependent on Russian gas... you want to be in Norway, perhaps. And actually France should be relatively well placed.
    German politics is already starting to get very bitter as they realise they've put themselves in a position where they have a choice between financing Putin's war and protecting their economy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Gardenwalker said:

    MaxPB said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    The outlook is way, way worse across Europe, there's still signs of life in the UK economy, in some parts of Europe there's nothing. Just surging costs, no wage rises, huge tax rises, promise of state investment that never arrives and rapidly dropping consumer sentiment.

    Even though I love Italy, the idea of living there is a disaster, what's happening here in terms of hollowing out working age incomes to protect oldies is happening all across the continent at an even worse rate. Macron can't even get the bloody pension age up from 62 to 65 without riots in the streets, old age spending in the UK is bad at around 20% of GDP, across the continent that number is hitting 25% already and rising fast leaving almost no room for investment in services or infrastructure.

    I'm starting to think that maybe we should have just let COVID rip, it would have solved the care, healthcare and pensions cost crisis within a year and we would have saved £400bn in furlough and other expenses.
    Well, I moved to the US.

    But I am far less pessimistic about Europe than you seem to be.

    Not Italy, of course, but Italy is in an even worse state than the UK.

    I think, were I a “middle income” earning household (say, £100k?) with two kids…I would be content to move to most of Northern Europe.

    Even the Balts and Czech are looking OK these days.

    I’m trying to balance everything up in my thinking here - quality of life, taxation, public services, and the chance for my kids to live a normal lifestyle.
    Kids getting shot at school is normal in US I believe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,738
    edited March 2022
    He's really screwed poor people/people on benefit, and workers.

    Utterly shameful.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    edited March 2022
    williamglenn said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    williamglenn said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    Which major European economies do you think are best placed to withstand a prolonged conflict with Russia?
    I doubt any European economy is well placed to withstand a “prolonged conflict with Russia”.

    What a daft question.
    You asserted that Britain is the sick man of Europe, so presumably you think that we will be worst affected by the economic war that is opening up? Or haven't you given it any thought?
    I just think your premise is a little odd.
    By economic war do you mean sanctions and rising energy costs?

    I think much of Europe has been caught napping - save France, perhaps - on energy costs.

    This includes the UK of course.

    I still think that Western Europe (apart from Italy!) is likely to outperform the UK over the next several years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,738
    I don't wish to belittle Rishi Sunak but he has all the worse traits of Gordon Brown and David Miliband.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,780
    Extraordinary drone footage of Mariupol. 450,000 people once lived here. The devastation is total

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506686575282999301?s=20&t=UKwVvHgjfwRwTr_Z28jmLQ
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    bigjohnowls said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    Boris in that instance as the best chance of Starmer losing an MP although in policy closer to Green
    Are you going to campaign for Boris and the Tories or just vote for them?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    JosiasJessop said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In this case, unusually, the reality is politically more important than the perception. Unfortunately for the government, and for Rishi's political ambitions, the economic reality is that for most people, things are going to be getting increasingly difficult, or even worse than that, over the next few months, and they're not going to get any better for a long time. Not all of that is the government's fault, but the narrative that the Chancellor has protected 'hard-working families' is going to look very silly very soon.

    Your final comment is post of the week material.

    I think he has blown it big time.

    In a Sunak vs Starmer election I couldn't vote for either.

    Fortunately for you, but not the rest of us, it will be Boris v Starmer.
    And I'd vote for Starmer. At the moment. Despite a *load* of questions about Labour's prospectus. And a fear of the far left infiltrating it like a cancer after he wins.

    Interestingly, our constituency is becoming increasingly marginal. Though with the LD, not Labour.
    Get over that fear. It's based on nothing. Corbyn and the Trots have been scythed from the party machine. They ain't coming back.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    What are the odds (this IS ostensibly a betting site) that for foreseeable future, we'll be hearing more "woke" and less "budget" from Tories here & elsewhere?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,102
    Leon said:

    Extraordinary drone footage of Mariupol. 450,000 people once lived here. The devastation is total

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506686575282999301?s=20&t=UKwVvHgjfwRwTr_Z28jmLQ

    I'm sure secretly they always wanted to rebuild as Putingrad.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,417
    bigjohnowls said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    MaxPB said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    As well as the direct hit on family finances, there's also the effect on public services of something 8% inflation with no corresponding increase in their budgets. Public sector workers are going to be very disgruntled as their pay is frozen or near-frozen, and councils and the NHS are also going to be faced with sharply rising non-wage cuts.

    I don't think there has been an outlook as dire as this since the seventies.

    Indeed.
    Sick man of Europe redux.

    This is effectively why I left.
    I mean, the direct reason was a job offer.
    But the underlying situation looked exceedingly grim.
    The outlook is way, way worse across Europe, there's still signs of life in the UK economy, in some parts of Europe there's nothing. Just surging costs, no wage rises, huge tax rises, promise of state investment that never arrives and rapidly dropping consumer sentiment.

    Even though I love Italy, the idea of living there is a disaster, what's happening here in terms of hollowing out working age incomes to protect oldies is happening all across the continent at an even worse rate. Macron can't even get the bloody pension age up from 62 to 65 without riots in the streets, old age spending in the UK is bad at around 20% of GDP, across the continent that number is hitting 25% already and rising fast leaving almost no room for investment in services or infrastructure.

    I'm starting to think that maybe we should have just let COVID rip, it would have solved the care, healthcare and pensions cost crisis within a year and we would have saved £400bn in furlough and other expenses.
    Well, I moved to the US.

    But I am far less pessimistic about Europe than you seem to be.

    Not Italy, of course, but Italy is in an even worse state than the UK.

    I think, were I a “middle income” earning household (say, £100k?) with two kids…I would be content to move to most of Northern Europe.

    Even the Balts and Czech are looking OK these days.

    I’m trying to balance everything up in my thinking here - quality of life, taxation, public services, and the chance for my kids to live a normal lifestyle.
    Kids getting shot at school is normal in US I believe.
    I think “normal” might be over-stretching it.

    For this period of my life, (40s, two kids), it’s massively more advantageous for me to be here.

    The idea is to try to retire in my early 50s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,102
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    What are the odds (this IS ostensibly a betting site) that for foreseeable future, we'll be hearing more "woke" and less "budget" from Tories here & elsewhere?

    Evens.
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