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Special military operation, what is it good for? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    It is becoming clear that anything resembling a Russian "victory" must be prevented. Given the dangers of direct military intervention by NATO I think the following need to be considered:
    1. Increase blockade including by by unofficial measures.
    2. Be diplomatic to China, India and fence sitters and encourage their switch. Behind the scenes make it clear this conflict is our no 1 priority. If they undermine us they will suffer. E.g India should be secretly threatened with big long term economic hit if they buy increased amounts of Russian gas or oil.
    3. Covertly give green light to Blackwater and similar to enter Ukraine as a counter balance to Wagner. I assume they are well trained in modern weapon systems which can accompany them.
    4. Can we get long range missiles into Ukraine to hit rail transport inside Russia and also hit their long range missile and artillery systems?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,224

    BJ comes all over Welsh would be excellent headline.

    His track record over legacy projects isn't great, though the long term and permanent impairment of the Conservative and Unionist party looks promising.
    :lol: A literal spaff of public money.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Ukrainian officials tell me tonight: The Russians are trying to sell to the world as if the deal is almost done. They are doing it for one simple aim: to prevent further sanctions.

    https://twitter.com/amichaistein1/status/1505260513260969986?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Er, weeks back, wasn't Vlad firing generals because they, er, used conscripts that they weren't supposed to take to war? All very confusing. Almost as if Putin has double standards or something.
    Ah, but no doubt it is just the proper authorities of the 'independent' states in Donbas that are doing the conscripting, so that's fine.

    Or he made the mistake of saying something even his grip on the media couldn't pretend was true, so he pulled the dictator equivalent of the 'I'm stupid' defence and had to pretend it had happened without official sanction.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Being optimistic, I don't think it's impossible that this will end with Russia baulking at the prospect of being dominated by China and ending up with a pro-Western reformist government.

    God, I hope you are correct!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063


    Patrick Reevell
    @Reevellp
    ·
    18m
    Angry (and fearless) crowd confronting Russian troops in the occupied Ukrainian city of Energodar (home to the nuclear plant).
    A Russian soldier fires his rifle over his head but the crowd doesn’t flinch.

    https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1505566638153809923

    It's one thing to shell civilian areas from a distance, but if they want to hold the cities they will need to be willing to fire into not just above crowds. Hopefully the troops won't stand for that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    £££

    By the way, can I just reiterate my suggestion of a saltwater jet, like the Jet D'Eau in Geneva, being engineered into the Swansea Bay scheme? More than anything, probably even his love of free holidays and posh totty, Boris wants a legacy. The Boris jet, the highest saltwater jet in the world, would be a huge icon and tourist attraction. He might even risk the displeasure of the powerful lobbies to make it happen. This is someone who insisted on a land bridge over the Irish sea.
    The PM could have had a series of Boris Bays, a legacy that would (at a minimum) last into the middle of the next century. And the Swansea scheme had lots of works of art along the length of the sea wall.

    https://www.lda-design.co.uk/work/portfolio/swansea-bay-tidal-lagoon/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022


    Patrick Reevell
    @Reevellp
    ·
    18m
    Angry (and fearless) crowd confronting Russian troops in the occupied Ukrainian city of Energodar (home to the nuclear plant).
    A Russian soldier fires his rifle over his head but the crowd doesn’t flinch.

    https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1505566638153809923

    Not to be pedantic about his but important to remember that Enerhodar is more like a medium sized town than a city - population 53,000.

    The biggest settlement Russia has got control of is Kherson, population 290,000. Unless the Ukrainian army collapses the casualties they'll take in trying to control the major cities are enormous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Ukrainian officials tell me tonight: The Russians are trying to sell to the world as if the deal is almost done. They are doing it for one simple aim: to prevent further sanctions.

    https://twitter.com/amichaistein1/status/1505260513260969986?s=21

    Don't fall for it. Increases every day, week and month a Russian soldier is on Ukrainian territory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    The tide has turned from Russia wining quickly, militarily, to Russia wining very, very slowly, militarily.

    The question is can they sustain this meat grinder, while the economy collapses from sanctions?
    Quite.

    And Russian supply problems will likely only worsen, as their manufacturing ability is going to be hit by sanctions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    edited March 2022

    They are a sea wall. With 160 turbines in two banks of 80. Unless the seabed surveys have gone REALLY awry, they are very straightforward to construct and maintain. CV an untried nuclear option that might have issues. Probably will. They usually do. And have to put hands in the taxpayers' pocket to bail them out.

    And even if lagoons got hit by costs that were doubled, they would still be a third cheaper than nuclear. And last 2, 3, 4 or more times as long. But there is no reason to believe that the costings are adrift at all.

    (My background is the oil industry, where if cost overruns approach 10%, the operator is likely to get fired. Private sector vs public sector costings....public sector just gets a tut and a pay cheque.)
    I presume by a "sea-wall" you mean rocks/sand/clay at a fairly low angle of repose?

    If you, tons of such structure have been built over the years. There was even an accidental (!) tidal pond, of that nature, built round an oil rig in Alaska, IIRC.

    I would think that the big question in this is the maintenance/damage rate of the turbines - exposed to storm/wave action and with lots of sand and larger particles in the water going through them. Not necessarily a show stopper, but that would be the biggest risk, I would thing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,224
    edited March 2022

    The PM could have had a series of Boris Bays, a legacy that would (at a minimum) last into the middle of the next century. And the Swansea scheme had lots of works of art along the length of the sea wall.

    https://www.lda-design.co.uk/work/portfolio/swansea-bay-tidal-lagoon/
    Yes, but works of art aren't very interesting, and don't make the Guinness Book of Records.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited March 2022

    Not to be pedantic about his but important to remember that Enerhodar is more like a medium sized town than a city - population 53,000.
    Intentionally being pedantic, but as the definition of city is not fixed, and in this country at least is not technically tied to its size at all, it could still be a city.

    What counts as a village, town or city may vary based on the size of the country in question as well, so what counts a city in one might not in the other.
  • Aslan said:

    Even their nuclear advantage will decline over time. It is unclear they can purchase all the inputs needed to maintain nukes over time. Plus the US is investing heavily in anti-missile technology via its close defense work with the Israelis. There could come a point in the future where the West could shoot all the nukes out of the sky.
    They could hand carry one from Kaliningrad to a suitable European capital.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    Yes, but works of art aren't very interesting, and don't make the Guinness Book of Records.
    We could write the names of his children along the length of the sea wall instead. Double legacy.

    We might have to use quite small print, of course.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    kle4 said:

    Yes, unfortunately that does seem plausible. It may have been at higher cost than he wanted, but a glorified snatch and grab may well succeed.
    But at what cost?

    Germany rearming and - along with the rest of Europe - weaning itself off Russian gas. Bans on fracking in eastern Europe being overturned left and right. Relations between the UK and the EU much improved. Finland and Sweden potentially in NATO. And sanctions on the high tech machine tools and oil services equipment Russia desperately needs continuing in perpetuity.

    And the remainder of Ukraine welcomed into the EU.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    eek said:

    The other side of the question is what is wrong with tidal? Because the complete dislike of it is interesting…
    Very simple. A handful of civil servants nailed their colours to the nuclear mast - and did everything they could to block anything that might have been competition.

    There is a massive win for Starmer on this. The Government is taking a hell of a risk of him playing this card. Especially as it would go down especially well in all the Red Wall seats. Both where the lagoons get built and the components get made (they are 85%+ UK spend).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,224

    The PM could have had a series of Boris Bays, a legacy that would (at a minimum) last into the middle of the next century. And the Swansea scheme had lots of works of art along the length of the sea wall.

    https://www.lda-design.co.uk/work/portfolio/swansea-bay-tidal-lagoon/
    Plus 'could have', not could have had. Be optimistic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    rcs1000 said:

    But at what cost?

    Germany rearming and - along with the rest of Europe - weaning itself off Russian gas. Bans on fracking in eastern Europe being overturned left and right. Relations between the UK and the EU much improved. Finland and Sweden potentially in NATO. And sanctions on the high tech machine tools and oil services equipment Russia desperately needs continuing in perpetuity.

    And the remainder of Ukraine welcomed into the EU.
    You also wonder how useful untrammelled access to the Black Sea will be to Russia if nobody around its shores will trade with them and the Bosporus remains closed to their shipping.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited March 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    But at what cost?

    Germany rearming and - along with the rest of Europe - weaning itself off Russian gas. Bans on fracking in eastern Europe being overturned left and right. Relations between the UK and the EU much improved. Finland and Sweden potentially in NATO. And sanctions on the high tech machine tools and oil services equipment Russia desperately needs continuing in perpetuity.

    And the remainder of Ukraine welcomed into the EU.
    Oh it'd be a very stupid tradeoff. But from Putin's perspective gaining physical territory to enlarge Russia for his personal glory is probably worth any cost whatsoever. He wants maps in Russia to show territory regained under the Tsar Vladimir.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    rcs1000 said:

    But at what cost?

    Germany rearming and - along with the rest of Europe - weaning itself off Russian gas. Bans on fracking in eastern Europe being overturned left and right. Relations between the UK and the EU much improved. Finland and Sweden potentially in NATO. And sanctions on the high tech machine tools and oil services equipment Russia desperately needs continuing in perpetuity.

    And the remainder of Ukraine welcomed into the EU.
    Sorry...

    Did I mention that he had already trashed the reputation of Russian military kit relative to Western gear, thus destroying one of their few non commodity exports.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    I presume by a "sea-wall" you mean rocks/sand/clay at a fairly low angle of repose?

    If you, tons of such structure have been built over the years. There was even an accidental (!) tidal pond, of that nature, built round an oil rig in Alaska, IIRC.

    I would think that the big question in this is the maintenance/damage rate of the turbines - exposed to storm/wave action and with lots of sand and larger particles in the water going through them. Not necessarily a show stopper, but that would be the biggest risk, I would thing.
    La Rance tidal power station was built in the 1960's in France. They recently put a new set of turbines in, which they expect to last another 60 years.

    It produces the cheapest power in France.

    So no, not such an issue.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,530
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    Intentionally being pedantic, but as the definition of city is not fixed, and in this country at least is not technically tied to its size at all, it could still be a city.

    What counts as a village, town or city may vary based on the size of the country in question as well, so what counts a city in one might not in the other.
    Wells is of course a city, and you have the City of London which is a mere one mile square.

    Winchcombe, where I am now, has a population of about 5,000 and is a town. In fact they get very sniffy if you call it a village, which to all appearances it is.

    No I don't understand it either.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608

    Polling shows Ukrainians see Britain as their third closest ally after neighbouring Poland and Lithuania, ahead of the United States. France and Germany are seventh and fifth from bottom respectively. What this shows is the importance Ukrainians are placing on military aid.

    image

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1505566830496296964

    I will ask the same question I ask after all these polls are published. How does a polling company accurately canvas a war zone?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    rcs1000 said:

    Sorry...

    Did I mention that he had already trashed the reputation of Russian military kit relative to Western gear, thus destroying one of their few non commodity exports.
    It's a mystery to me why, say India, buys so much kit from them. Is it bargain basement price?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Not a great advert for Mercedes engines this weekend.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Verstappen rolls the dice.
  • It's a mystery to me why, say India, buys so much kit from them. Is it bargain basement price?
    Russia's customer service department is going to be handling a lot of returns when this war is over. :(
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited March 2022

    It means, effectively, deleting/reworking multiple square kilometres of shallow water seabed/tidal flats.

    This gets the environmentalists who are interested in such areas very, very upset.
    Also, those are the areas where mud is deposited from ther river (or from further to sea) - and if one disturbs the current and slows it the water is apt to dump the sediment.

    I seem to remember this can be an issue for some river dams where the water has a high sediment load.

    I have no idea if this is even an issue for tidal, but how often does one needf to clean out the tidal basin?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    rcs1000 said:

    Sorry...

    Did I mention that he had already trashed the reputation of Russian military kit relative to Western gear, thus destroying one of their few non commodity exports.
    Yet supposedly the reason why India is trying to keep in Russias good books is to keep military equipment (especially spares) coming
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Nigelb said:

    Not a great advert for Mercedes engines this weekend.

    Pierre Gasly showing his engine is hot stuff though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    Poor Leclerc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Wells is of course a city, and you have the City of London which is a mere one mile square.

    Winchcombe, where I am now, has a population of about 5,000 and is a town. In fact they get very sniffy if you call it a village, which to all appearances it is.

    No I don't understand it either.
    I believe any parish or community council can simply decide to call themselves a town and that's all it takes. I'd call 5000 a very large village, but I know a few parishes which with combined settlements are larger, and a few which have transitioned to calling themselves town councils.

    As I see it we basically have villages, towns, and conurbations, any of which might be gain the title of city.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    From an engineering pov, what is their maximum depth?
    You can work with the contours of the seabed to shape the lagoon to keep the depths to a minimum. They are not sufficiently deep to require massive piling to keep them in place.

    This is a public document you might find interesting:

    " shallow waters with gently sloping beach profiles are preferable to minimise
    environmental and economic impacts."

    https://www.tidallagoonpower.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/8.1_Part3.pdf
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Wells is of course a city, and you have the City of London which is a mere one mile square.

    Winchcombe, where I am now, has a population of about 5,000 and is a town. In fact they get very sniffy if you call it a village, which to all appearances it is.

    No I don't understand it either.
    Wells = about 12K people.

    Kirkwall in Orkney = under 8K but a city.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287

    It's a mystery to me why, say India, buys so much kit from them. Is it bargain basement price?
    Stopgap while they developed their own arms industry, which is happening fairly quickly now.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited March 2022
    eek said:

    Yet supposedly the reason why India is trying to keep in Russias good books is to keep military equipment (especially spares) coming
    Think you answered your own question there - spares. India's land and air forces run primarily on Russian equipment. Also, India's military leadership is probably a lot better than Russia's and their likely military adversaries (Pakistan / China) have little access to advanced Western equipment so their equipment is likely to be relatively on a par in combat.

    Don't forget the cheap oil + wheat as well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Carnyx said:

    Wells = about 12K people.

    Kirkwall in Orkney = under 8K but a city.
    Tyddewi - 1600 but still a city.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Davids
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    I will ask the same question I ask after all these polls are published. How does a polling company accurately canvas a war zone?
    It seems impossible, but of course life really can go on to a surprising degree in all but the most destroyed areas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Convenient safety car for Leclerc.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    Will lapped cars be allowed to pass? :lol:
  • kle4 said:

    Oh it'd be a very stupid tradeoff. But from Putin's perspective gaining physical territory to enlarge Russia for his personal glory is probably worth any cost whatsoever. He wants maps in Russia to show territory regained under the Tsar Vladimir.
    He will be lucky not to lose any at this rate. The citizens of St Petersburg must be thinking about the possibilty of declaring UDI.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Part of Boris's problem is that he has burnt through a lot of people's reserves of benefit-of-the-doubt. His role in Vote Leave didn't help, but neither did Dom in Durham, sitting on the Russia Report, crisis school meals, Paterson, parties... It's quite a list. And looking at his CV, it's what he does and why he has that Cavalier swagger that people find attractive.

    But losing the BotD means that the rest of us are less inclined to give him credit when the boy does good and more inclined to believe the worst when he doesn't. See Blair post-Iraq or Major post-Black Wednesday.

    Not entirely fair, but human nature. And frankly, a PM expecting sympathy because politics is unfair is as absurd as a fish complaining that water is wet.
    BoTD?

    The Bible of the Dead??

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Nigelb said:

    Convenient safety car for Leclerc.

    And a Mercedes is leading the race!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608

    Very simple. A handful of civil servants nailed their colours to the nuclear mast - and did everything they could to block anything that might have been competition.

    There is a massive win for Starmer on this. The Government is taking a hell of a risk of him playing this card. Especially as it would go down especially well in all the Red Wall seats. Both where the lagoons get built and the components get made (they are 85%+ UK spend).
    I have a USP to sell the lagoons to Johnson. What about a big ****- off, Statue of Liberty sized statue of Johnson in every tidal lagoon?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    tlg86 said:

    Will lapped cars be allowed to pass? :lol:

    Don't worry, Lewis Hamilton will be allowed to move into the correct place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    I have a USP to sell the lagoons to Johnson. What about a big ****- off, Statue of Liberty sized statue of Johnson in every tidal lagoon?
    Er - no.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    edited March 2022
    It seems that bloke who claims to be an author has done a thing...it must be because they don't spend any time on PB anymore ;-)


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    The WHO have reported that they confirmed that 43 medical facilities have been attacked in the last 3 weeks.

    The World Health Organization has verified 43 attacks on health care in the three weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine and says hundreds more facilities remain at risk.
    https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087209901/world-health-organization-ukraine?t=1647785262329
    Harsh fact is, the sensible objectives in a war like this are

    1. Take and hold ground; failing that because it is too difficult

    2. Kill civilians, the max number where you can just about plausibly claim that it isn't intentional

    Because if you can't hold ground you want to push towards negotiation, and nothing gets international public opinion saying OMG this must be stopped, like bombing a children's hospital. Military deaths just don't have the same effect.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    Plus 'could have', not could have had. Be optimistic.
    Perhaps I was alluding to the fact that he doesn't have long as PM left to act.... 😉
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    ydoethur said:

    Don't worry, Lewis Hamilton will be allowed to move into the correct place.
    Not sure what David Croft is talking about regarding the rules. They very clearly stated all lapped cars must pass the safety car, so not sure what they've changed.
  • It seems that bloke who claims to be an author has done a thing...


    That reminds me, I need to order some bog roll.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    eek said:

    The other side of the question is what is wrong with tidal? Because the complete dislike of it is interesting…
    For what it's worth, when I was PPS to Malcolm Wicks as Energy Minister, the cost per unit of tidal was colossally more than any other kind of energy - I forget the exact figures but it was more than 10 times more than most of forms of energy. We really wanted to encourage it but the figures were intimidating (onshore wind was the cheapest, by a long way, but of course the need for continuous supply is an issue, quite apart from nimbyism).

    That was 15 years ago and the sums will undoubtedly have changed, but have they changed enough? Or should we do it at any price because of the reliability of domestic supply? Perhaps - but it's not absolutely obvious.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    edited March 2022

    That reminds me, I need to order some bog roll.
    Was watching a video about cost of goods in Russia since sanctions...luxury bog roll has got very expensive apparently. They might be using these kind of books instead shortly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    ydoethur said:

    The way things are going he'll be running out of generals to fire very soon.
    The ones that remain may be fired into the heart of the sun. Russian agents have taken a keen interest in Mr. Dancer's space cannon, I've heard....
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited March 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Quite.

    And Russian supply problems will likely only worsen, as their manufacturing ability is going to be hit by sanctions.
    The scenario I am increasingly thinking how this plays out is the 1918 Western Front and eventual defeat of Germany.

    You had the March offensive which looked like it would win the war for Germany but then it lost momentum. You then had a couple of months where Germany was pushed back but not too much, and then the collapse of its front in the final months before the Armistice as the troops refused to fight and discontent at home, fueled by the economic blockade, sparked revolt.

    I don't think we are necessarily that far off this situation here. It is clear Russia cannot win; their losses are horrendous; the sanctions will increasingly bite and Russia's manufacturing capability will ground to a halt. Calling up the conscripts is likely to be the final straw.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 730
    On the subject of tidal power....
    https://gwlad.org/en/english-turning-back-the-tide/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    The ones that remain may be fired into the heart of the sun. Russian agents have taken a keen interest in Mr. Dancer's space cannon, I've heard....
    Have they made a special application to relate them as officials of the DfE and join the Gogalfrincham Ark B @Malmesbury is building?
  • The BBC reports....

    Zelensky draws parallels between Russian invasion and WW2

    President Zelensky draws parallels between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and World War Two.

    He says the invasion is "not a military operation".

    "It's a full scale war aimed at the destruction of our people, the destruction of our children, families, statehood, cities, cultures and everything that makes them Ukrainian."

    "That's why I have the right to draw this parallel in history. Our wars for survival and the Second World War."

    Oddly, no mention of Brexit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Interesting perspective (with book mentions) on Russia's Ukraine war and why its failing:

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1505563536403091464
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    tlg86 said:

    Not sure what David Croft is talking about regarding the rules. They very clearly stated all lapped cars must pass the safety car, so not sure what they've changed.
    No it didn't. It said 'any.' Not 'all.'

    The problem was not the Masi's actions broke the letter of the rules. It was that he broke the spirit of them. Because 'any' probably should have included 'all' and any (sorry) reasonable person would take it that way.

    However, being caught between the gruesome pressures Mercedes and RBR were bringing to bear Masi seemed to be past reason,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287

    For what it's worth, when I was PPS to Malcolm Wicks as Energy Minister, the cost per unit of tidal was colossally more than any other kind of energy - I forget the exact figures but it was more than 10 times more than most of forms of energy. We really wanted to encourage it but the figures were intimidating (onshore wind was the cheapest, by a long way, but of course the need for continuous supply is an issue, quite apart from nimbyism).

    That was 15 years ago and the sums will undoubtedly have changed, but have they changed enough? Or should we do it at any price because of the reliability of domestic supply? Perhaps - but it's not absolutely obvious.
    Civil service calculations on this are claimed to be wrong, FWIW. And the costings for nuclear have already proved colossally wrong, too.

    As @MarqueeMark points out, tidal lasts for a looong time. Government borrowing at very low interest rates (we might now have left it too late ?) plus the bulk of the spending being domestic also helps the sums.

    There’s also the interesting tidal fence technology, which might provide a much cheaper option for the Severn.

    How deeply did you go into this, Nick ? I’d be really interested to know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287

    Was watching a video about cost of goods in Russia since sanctions...luxury bog roll has got very expensive apparently. They might be using these kind of books instead shortly.
    Printer paper also very expensive.
  • HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Verstappen and his car having a meltdown.
  • Hopefully Lewis will be ahead of Verstappen in the standings.
  • So long as the Dutch shunt doesn't win the title I'll be happy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    Polling shows Ukrainians see Britain as their third closest ally after neighbouring Poland and Lithuania, ahead of the United States. France and Germany are seventh and fifth from bottom respectively. What this shows is the importance Ukrainians are placing on military aid.

    image

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1505566830496296964

    Seventh from bottom is still shows overwhelmingly positive views, so it's a little misleading to frame it in that way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    So Red Bull have the second fastest car, but they're nearly as unreliable as a civil servant's analysis of education (and it's not just Verstappen either).

    Meanwhile, Mercedes are well off the pace, but at least can keep their cars running.

    And Ferrari have a car that seems to be fast and reliable.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986

    That reminds me, I need to order some bog roll.
    How are stone pizzle supplies?
  • HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA X2
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    My goodness.

    Not an ideal race for Red Bull, to put it mildly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    edited March 2022
    ydoethur said:

    No it didn't. It said 'any.' Not 'all.'

    The problem was not the Masi's actions broke the letter of the rules. It was that he broke the spirit of them. Because 'any' probably should have included 'all' and any (sorry) reasonable person would take it that way.

    However, being caught between the gruesome pressures Mercedes and RBR were bringing to bear Masi seemed to be past reason,
    Okay, let's do this all again for those who just don't get it.

    The rule stated: "If the clerk of the course considers it safe to do so, and the message "LAPPED CARS MAY NOW OVERTAKE" has been sent to all Competitors via the official messaging system, any cars that have been lapped by the leader will be required to pass the cars on the lead lap and the safety car.

    "Unless the clerk of the course considers the presence of the safety car is still necessary, once the last lapped car has passed the leader the safety car will return to the pits at the end of the following lap."

    So, not all drivers were informed and there's no discretion about it. Lapped cars are required to pass the safety car. And the safety car didn't do another lap after the lapped cars overtook.

    And even if Masi buckled under pressure, the stewards should have corrected the error after the race.
  • That noise you all heard was me laughing my arse off at Red Bull
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287

    HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

    HAHAHAHAHAHA.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    rcs1000 said:

    Seventh from bottom is still shows overwhelmingly positive views, so it's a little misleading to frame it in that way.
    It's always about Brexit for some people.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    edited March 2022
    How many runs ahead does Root think England actually need?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    edited March 2022

    That noise you all heard was me laughing my arse off at Red Bull

    I think it fair to say that will be a popular result.

    (For the avoidance of doubt, not your arse falling off.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    A better analogy than Boris's EU vs. Britain = Russia vs. Ukraine one would be a post-separation Scotland wanting to join the EU, but RUK, for strategic reasons, is very anti. It offers the RUK-friendly Scottish PM a wide-ranging trade deal with RUK if Scotland gives up it's attempt to join the EU. However, it all kicks off on the Scottish side, as the attempt by RUK to decide the course of Scotland's future is resented by many, and many others frankly just hate the bones of the English, so it doesn't matter that there's probably more benefit in the UK deal than the EU deal for Scotland, protests kick off (aided by the EU) and unseat the RUK favouring PM, replacing him with an EU-loving one. There's pretty much open dislike from then on, RUK accusing the EU of unwarranted interference in it's back yard, the EU insisting that the UK is being a bully and attempting to thwart the will of the Scottish people. Scottish people growing steadily less pro-RUK, except a significant English minority, who are just getting more and more nervous. Etc.

    So, I'm struggling with the use of the word 'analogy', because it normally implies some sort of similarity.

    Let's start with the obvious.

    1. Ukraine voted overwhelmingly for independence when they had the chance.
    2. Russia then guaranteed Ukraine's borders in return for them giving up their nuclear weapons.
    3. Russia then ignored these guarantees and invaded in 2014.

    So, when you say 'analogy', what exactly do you mean?

    Ultimately it seems to be just a fancy way of justifying why you think the Russians deserve agency, while the Ukrainians should do what they're told (by the Russians).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.
    https://mk.ru/politics/2022/03/20/zamkomanduyushhego-chernomorskogo-flota-andrey-paliy-pogib-na-ukraine.html
    https://kommersant.ru/doc/5269657


    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505584798231900164?s=20&t=pekGZM3Q5kulei35NPZM8w
  • glwglw Posts: 10,255
    Aslan said:

    Even their nuclear advantage will decline over time. It is unclear they can purchase all the inputs needed to maintain nukes over time. Plus the US is investing heavily in anti-missile technology via its close defense work with the Israelis. There could come a point in the future where the West could shoot all the nukes out of the sky.

    The word "could" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. I'd note that the US, Russian, and Chinese governments have much less ambitious aims for their ABM systems, limiting their expensive programmes to shooting down a few missiles from a rogue state, or defending only a small area. People have been working on ABM systems for over 60 years, and the cost of such systems has always favoured the attacker. i.e. It's cheap to up the number of targets, but it's expensive to increase the number and type of targets that can be engaged.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980

    Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.
    https://mk.ru/politics/2022/03/20/zamkomanduyushhego-chernomorskogo-flota-andrey-paliy-pogib-na-ukraine.html
    https://kommersant.ru/doc/5269657


    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505584798231900164?s=20&t=pekGZM3Q5kulei35NPZM8w

    It is quite amazing how many high ranked individuals they are losing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    glw said:

    The word "could" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. I'd note that the US, Russian, and Chinese governments have much less ambitious aims for their ABM systems, limiting their expensive programmes to shooting down a few missiles from a rogue state, or defending only a small area. People have been working on ABM systems for over 60 years, and the cost of such systems has always favoured the attacker. i.e. It's cheap to up the number of targets, but it's expensive to increase the number and type of targets that can be engaged.
    As the IRA observed "You have to be lucky always. We only have to be lucky once."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    tlg86 said:

    Okay, let's do this all again for those who just don't get it.

    The rule stated: "If the clerk of the course considers it safe to do so, and the message "LAPPED CARS MAY NOW OVERTAKE" has been sent to all Competitors via the official messaging system, any cars that have been lapped by the leader will be required to pass the cars on the lead lap and the safety car.

    "Unless the clerk of the course considers the presence of the safety car is still necessary, once the last lapped car has passed the leader the safety car will return to the pits at the end of the following lap."

    So, not all drivers were informed and there's no discretion about it. Lapped cars are required to pass the safety car. And the safety car didn't do another lap after the lapped cars overtook.
    OK, I'll leave it. You're wrong, but it is after all no longer important and I don't wish to find you have a Hyufd style persistence to stick to your own view while everyone else wishes we would STFU.

    Red Bull are going to have to improve reliability if they want to challenge Ferrari here. On this race they remind me of McLaren in the Hakkinen era. Very fast, but very fragile.

    Where do Mercedes find around a second a lap to challenge though? Hard work ahead.

    It will be interesting to see how well Hamilton does in a less competitive car though. He's never really had a car that was so far off the pace.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Distressing stories coming out of Belarus, of the local soldiers being forced to clean Russian tanks

    And when I say "clean" I mean: hosing out the remains of Russian soldiers. Apparently this chore is known to cause deep trauma in anyone tasked with it, hence the Russians using Belarusians

    Such a charming regime
  • glwglw Posts: 10,255

    As the IRA observed "You have to be lucky always. We only have to be lucky once."
    It's really quite simple. A decoy is dirt cheap, so you can lots of those for not much money, but you can't have a decoy interceptor, those have to be real. Never mind electronic warfare where you end up firing very expensive ABM missiles at ghosts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Great result for Magnussen, who thought his F1 career over.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,941
    The Ukraine war is moving towards a stalemate according to what I have read. The Russian aim for a quick victory has been thwarted but they now move on to plan B, i.e. pound the cities into submission with bombs.

    What puzzles me is why the successful Ukrainian attacks with hand-held rockets and drones against tanks and vehicles would not work against artillery howitzers. Can anyone explain?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    ydoethur said:

    OK, I'll leave it. You're wrong, but it is after all no longer important and I don't wish to find you have a Hyufd style persistence to stick to your own view while everyone else wishes we would STFU.
    Don't you fucking dare.

    Why am I wrong?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    At least that was entertaining. Lots of overtaking, plenty of tactics. And some quite spectacular breakdowns.

    The cricket, however...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    tlg86 said:

    Don't you fucking dare.

    Why am I wrong?
    Because you're reading into it a lack of ambiguity that wasn't there.

    But like I say, this would get tedious. As we saw last year, indeed.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,941
    Gentle request to the petrolheads about the race - some of us (i.e. me) watch the catch up on Ch 4 later, so could you please comment within the spoiler tag which is conveniently there for you to do so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Leon said:

    Distressing stories coming out of Belarus, of the local soldiers being forced to clean Russian tanks

    And when I say "clean" I mean: hosing out the remains of Russian soldiers. Apparently this chore is known to cause deep trauma in anyone tasked with it, hence the Russians using Belarusians

    Such a charming regime

    So....are those tanks in Belarus? Or Belarussian soldiers in Ukraine?

    If the tanks are in Belarus - how? Why? We are seeing them just abandoned on the battlefield, bodies scattered. Not sure why they would be cleaning out tanks that had been hit.

    Odd.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    geoffw said:

    The Ukraine war is moving towards a stalemate according to what I have read. The Russian aim for a quick victory has been thwarted but they now move on to plan B, i.e. pound the cities into submission with bombs.

    What puzzles me is why the successful Ukrainian attacks with hand-held rockets and drones against tanks and vehicles would not work against artillery howitzers. Can anyone explain?

    I think the howitzers are a lot further away - often actually inside Russia.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    ydoethur said:

    Because you're reading into it a lack of ambiguity that wasn't there.

    But like I say, this would get tedious. As we saw last year, indeed.
    At the very least, what is ambiguous about:

    "once the last lapped car has passed the leader the safety car will return to the pits at the end of the following lap."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    edited March 2022
    deleted
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756

    Russian officials confirmed that the Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political affairs, Captain of the 1st Rank Andrei Paly (born and raised in Kyiv) was killed in Mariupol.
    https://mk.ru/politics/2022/03/20/zamkomanduyushhego-chernomorskogo-flota-andrey-paliy-pogib-na-ukraine.html
    https://kommersant.ru/doc/5269657


    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505584798231900164?s=20&t=pekGZM3Q5kulei35NPZM8w

    Poor Vladolf

    He'll have to go to the front line himself at this rate.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    geoffw said:

    The Ukraine war is moving towards a stalemate according to what I have read. The Russian aim for a quick victory has been thwarted but they now move on to plan B, i.e. pound the cities into submission with bombs.

    What puzzles me is why the successful Ukrainian attacks with hand-held rockets and drones against tanks and vehicles would not work against artillery howitzers. Can anyone explain?

    I'd like to know the answer to that too.

    Also how well the Ukrainians are getting on with training reservists.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656
    eek said:

    Mrs eek complained about buying diesel at £1.67 on Thursday. It’s £1.72 today

    Fish and chips up this week. Well, just the fish. Medium cod up by a pound.
This discussion has been closed.