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Time is running out for those betting on a March CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com
Time is running out for those betting on a March CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com
One of the most interesting regular bets that we now have each month is on whether either LAB or CON will get a poll lead during a particular month. The current bet is on the Tories and as can be seen the closest they’ve got in any poll is 2%.
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I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.
And they are all still, unbelievable though this may seem, not as bad as that lightweight fucktarded bit of fluff Jacob Rees-Mogg.
I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory
My conclusion, however, is that disillusion with this government runs deep.
I forgive a lot of what was done in the crisis months of the pandemic, when our friends and allies were seizing PPE we’d bought and paid for, but I think the pandemic just brought the worst out in to the open.
Time to go away and take at look at themselves. It’s not about Brexit. Take it as done, but build the best relationship we can with Europe. They are not our enemies (really, even if it sometimes seems like it). Current events show that.
And yet don’t rule out a leadership change, some sleazy tax cuts and a narrow Tory majority. Depressing, but plausible.
I mean even on here many of the “usual suspects” still concede that Boris is shit.
Though hopefully it is resolved soon enough and does not spread beyond Ukraine
https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/
When we say Kyiv is winning the information war, far too often we only mean information spaces we inhabit.
Pulling apart the most obvious RU info op to date (as we did using semantic modelling), very clear it is targeting BRICS, Africa, Asia. Not the West really at all
This is the kind of thing this network shares by the way. Mainly an amplification network pumping a small number of viral pro-invasion meme, largely around themes of western hypocrisy, NATO expansionism and BRICS solidarity,
https://twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800
Here we watch a small European nation being mercilessly brutalised by a nuclear-armed gangster. 3 million refugees flee across the borders. We look on, astonished
It's like how parties have enough resources to understand election expenses rules, however complicated, and ensure they provide that to their various agents, yet still end up making so many errors and pleading confusion.
You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.
Fuel prices are quite something too. £1.66 for unleaded and £1.74 for diesel around the corner from me. Glad I don't drive a Chelsea tractor.
If they are correct everyone should thank them - whatever the outcome of any by-election we surely want our election rules to be followed properly.
What interests me is whether he could stand in any by-election having had his election voided - he wouldn't have a disqualification for the reason stated now.
Like many I am not good with geography, and although knowing Ukraine is physically big I did not appreciate how large its population was and suspect many ignorant Britons would be likewise surprised. Not that it is ok, but people might expect Russia to bully Georgia like this, but a nation of 40 million people?
"Speaking to the PA news agency, [former Ukrainian PM] Grossman had nothing but praise for Boris Johnson, calling the British PM, who has spoken most days to the country’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s number one ally”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/12/uk-visa-red-tape-distracting-fighters-on-frontline-says-ukraines-former-pm
We have also done more on sanctions than any other European nation: freezing Russian reserves in London, etc. The refugee situation is imperfect but has improved
Should the Tories get a bounce for this? Not really, who cares, there are more important things.
But your take is factually and totally wrong
The Germans in comparison sent some party hats and some Soviet era military equipment from a warehouse in Eastern Germany that had gone mouldy and doesn't work.
The EU also kept selling arms to the Russians even after a supposed ban.
In terms of sanctions, the most hard hitting ones aren't the ones the media bang on about. There are a lot of things that the UK / US have done that really hit Russian and Russian businesses, much more than seizing a boat or a house. Grabbing a yacht looks good, but it is a bit like when the stop a drugs shipment and show all the bags of coke, you haven't actually got the real source.
The slowness of Refugees is legitimate criticism. Poland is taking the massive weight on dealing with that for everybody else at the moment.
Plenty of culture in Bradford alright.
Night all.
Hunt also seems to be a good constituency MP
So why is the boost not there now?
1 in 20 people had it last week when ONS did sample. If you are detectable for say two weeks then 1 in 40 each week are newly infected. Wildly rough numbers I know. But...
That means by my shaky maths that after around 40 weeks EVERYONE will have had it. Every last man, child, mother, sister, brother etc etc. No one has escaped.
We are two years into this.
Surely a lot of stuff now is reinfections?
It is visceral.
The Brexit vote wasn't for this.
(And about the generosity of the British government. It's nice to have the NYTimes not bang on about Britain as if it was already a post apocalyptic graveyard.)
Southampton? Wrexham? a county?
It's all got a bit meaningless now, like the 38th season of Neighbours.
2. Yes, there will be a lot of re-infections going on.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ipswich_Borough_Council_election
The government got a bounce then because there was a sense of national solidarity. We were thinking about ourselves and our response and our beloved NHS. Now it is all about THEM: the Ukrainians and the Russians. Britain is a spectator, for the moment
Plus there is the factor that has been noted in that whilst some have said now is not the time to undermine Boris, plenty of us regard the current crisis as something he should still not be leading on.
This situation feels to me as though it should be the same. The government is saying all the right things. It can even point to a few things that it has done well - such as the training and equipment provided to Ukraine's army. There is an unprecedented threat to our security and safety - but the rally around the flag is not happening.
So I think I must be unusual in feeling this degree of fear and threat.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/ukraine-russia-war#ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia
It is demographically more of a southern redwall seat than a classic Home Counties seat and has a below average percentage of graduates.
I would fancy a narrow Tory hold
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.
Grant Shapps has already condemned P & O
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1504797915709165572?s=20&t=Uv1Jkrh4ntCf1hKSKPVuYQ
But, then again. Private masked security wielding handcuffs.and tasers accusing folk of trespass when they have simply showed up for work may also have been considered that.
Ukraine War Map
@War_Mapper
Map of the approximate situation in Ukraine as of 23:00 UTC 18/03/22.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1504955844802359299
Section 6(1)(a) of the House of Commons Disqualification Act 1975 renders the election void. High Court proceedings would be necessary only if a question of fact arose following an application to the Privy Council for a declaration as to disqualification. In this case, there would be no arguable question of fact: he either held an office listed in the schedule to the 1975 Act or he did not. (See section 7.)
In any event, though, section 6(2) provides that in the case of any actual or alleged disqualification, if it appears to the House of Commons that the grounds for disqualification subsisting at the relevant time (i.e. the date of the election) no longer subsist, and that it is otherwise proper to do so, the House may by order direct that such grounds be ignored for the purposes of section 6(1).
Therefore, all that the MP needs to do is make sure he no longer holds the office in question - quickly resigning it if need be - and then the Leader of the House tables a resolution to make an order under section 6(2), and the Government Whips would ensure that Conservative Members were whipped to support the resolution. Hey presto, problem solved and no grounds for disqualification any longer exist.
Possibly the real story here is they are looking to dodge their creditors?
Can't fathom the logic otherwise.
Compare that to accepting refugees, people know that it's possible to let people with Ukrainian passports into your country and the rest of the continent is visibly managing it, but the British aren't, and what they are doing is in little begrudging steps that make the government appear shifty and indecisive.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.
Moreover, one who has had two large whiskies so may not be following all you've said.
*yes, I know I'm being a bit cheeky there.
Apparently most people in Scotland refer to orange squash as "diluting juice". From a YouGov survey.
https://www.ukshipregister.co.uk/seafarer/working-conditions/
But the point is shipping doesn't necessarily work like that. The rules and regulations are based upon where the ship is registered and I am going to guess that the agency they use to hire is also not UK registered.
It's absurd that Ministers of the Crown are shedding crocodile tears over this outrage when they're in charge of the fucking government and could do something about it.
One thing the Russian invasion of Ukraine has encouraged in me is a sense that there's no point in fiddling around with half-measures and excuses. How is it that we've watched what China has done in Hong Kong and we aren't taking seriously the challenge of reducing our dependence on China?
Why is it that we've had decades of tough on crime commentators advocate being tough on minor property crimes, following the example of New York, but so many fewer of them are talking about being tough on indecent exposure and domestic violence which we know are gateway crimes to more serious assaults?
I think what it is that links them all together is impunity, something Cyclefree has written about often for us here. Putin can literally invade neighbouring countries with impunity. Sexual offences are committed largely with impunity. The Metropolitan Police act with impunity. Boris Johnson acts with impunity. Companies can take any and every liberty with impunity.
How long are people going to put up with this shit?
He also would never have sanctioned the UK sending billions on big Pharma contracts like Moderna or Pfizer.
But it's bollocks. Make me a Marxist. Go on.
"US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders:"
"EU +42.2
Nato -16.8
UK +56
Biden +25.8
Johnson +49.6
Zelensky +79
Putin -86.7"
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1501571883573075972?s=20&t=SOTvqK5UG-xhEbtrCflO-A
The life of a lot of the Filipinos on these ships is pretty terrible. Poor pay and many many months at sea without a break or chance to go home and see their family.
It take your point that there may be a lot of important sanctions stuff going on that we can't see, but again, that's not what creates a rally-around-the-leader effect. The voters can't be impressed by something that they don't know about.
Telegrph
By Boris standards, that's pretty decisive. As for the sanctions, the EU might have done things like seize a yacht 3 days before the UK, but the UK had to come up with a legal fudge, as they lost a very expensive court case a few years ago when they just decided to seize assets.
The refugee scheme is the thing that the government have been very slow to sort out.
Tonight I'll drink to yet another Russian General bastard finished off, the most senior yet.
In fact, one of the big reasons for Brexit vote is exactly this type of thing has been going on for years. Jobs shipped to Eastern Europe or further afield because of lower wages, hollowing out industries in places like Stoke e.g. all the pottery companies are a shadow of their former selves with all but very high end bespoke stuff made abroad.
Of course the thought Brexit magically fixes that is misguided. Its globalisation.
Set Britain aside for a while. The EU is completely open, 3m refugees have flooded out, yet only 17,000 are in France, and about 12,000 in Spain
They are staying in the East where they can be near friends and family, still in Ukraine, and whence they hope to go home soon, if and when the war ends. This makes sense, these are not people who want to leave Ukraine, they have been displaced by war. They want to go back
150,000 places for refugees have been offered in UK homes. I seriously doubt if we will get 150,000 Ukrainians to fill them
However, that means Poland are going to need vast amounts of help.
Italy has a Ukrainian population of 230,000
Germany has 250,000
France has 220,000
Spain has 110,000
Poland has over 1 million (pre war)
The UK? It has 20-30,000. It's tiny
A pre-existent community is always a major pull for foreign migrants. That simply does not exist in the UK. All this histrionic moral bleating about the UK not welcoming Ukrainians may be entirely misplaced, as things stands. They don't want to come