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Time is running out for those betting on a March CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • kle4 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It would have had to be by May 24 under the FTPA, so not sure what the new Bill would do that would extend the life of this parliament to over 5 years - do you have a link?
    No I haven't and that is why I asked the question
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    Hmmm.

    Prepare for a general election next year, No 10 staff told as inflation bites

    Rishi Sunak’s spring statement next week will highlight fault lines within a government already grappling with an energy crisis, the lockdown party scandal and Brexit


    When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The Australian strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.

    While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.

    He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.

    Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.

    “It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prepare-general-election-inflation-uk-ukraine-boris-johnson-fr8dgcwlw

    Delivering on the Brexit promises they made absolutely needs to be a priority. Aligned as it is to reducing inequality among the regions and levelling up.

    The Brexit campaign made many promises to the regions that leaving the EU would enable these regions to prosper. They need to deliver that.
    The idea of Brexit levelling up the regions of the North and the Midlands always was a mirage. It is a turbocharged fantasy on the back of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis.

    Throw some short term cash up the M1 by all means. In reality it won't help much in eighteen months, but it might look good on paper through the smoke and mirrors.
    How anyone was ever taken in by that one is what amazes me. What were the Northerners thinking of , leopard's do not change their spots.
    They use samew mince for Scotland every time as well and many fools are taken in time and time again despite the historical evidence that after they have your vote it is back to spending all the money in the south.
    The other thing is Malcolm, living here in South Wales, and I daresay Ayrshire and the Central Belt (I've listened to the Proclaimers, "Linwood no more, Methil no more") governments can throw incentives at regions, but as soon as those incentives stop "the Man" moves on to where the next set of incentives can be found.

    Levelling up may mean inviting Sony, Bosch, Honda, Panasonic, Peugeot, Ford and the like back to our shores, which may be expedient politically for the next election, but before you know it, they'll be off again.
    Very true, yet other countries can manage it. Money better spent helping small local business where most people are actually employed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Just heard a clip on Radio 4 of Obama mocking Mitt Romney for saying Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat “the 1980s and 1990’s called and they want their foreign policies back”….. aged well.

    It might have been better had Romney won in 2012, the US having proved it could elect a black President in 2008 and Obama already having delivered his main legislative achievement, Obamacare in 2010. Not only was he right on Putin and had a successful business background to boost the economy, had he won then Trump could not have run for the GOP nomination in 2016 either as Romney would have been President running for re election
    He would have made Biden look like a steady hand in comparison.
    He would have been mentally active and engaged unlike Biden.

    In fact a President Romney could well have been the best President of the 21st century. However too late now
    I see Trumpites still won't forgive him for voting against their beautiful man at both impeachments, and are seeking to primary Romney (if Romney is even intending to stand, which the article suggests he won't)

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/16/trump-ally-sean-reyes-mitt-romney-primary-00017741
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Syria's President Assad arrives in the UAE for his first official visit in 11 years

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-60804050

    Combination of a victory tour and rattling the mendicant's bowl.
    If he wants lots of money turning against Putin would be one way of rustling up funds, but I suspect that would be a poor move in his circumstances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Gordon Brown and John Major want a Nuremberg style trial for Putin. Not happening given Russia has a permanent veto at the UN Security Council however unless Putin is removed as President

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1504975625521610753?s=20&t=1pDXOZqVdJ2O_WdeX5NFLw
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Just heard a clip on Radio 4 of Obama mocking Mitt Romney for saying Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat “the 1980s and 1990’s called and they want their foreign policies back”….. aged well.

    It might have been better had Romney won in 2012, the US having proved it could elect a black President in 2008 and Obama already having delivered his main legislative achievement, Obamacare in 2010. Not only was he right on Putin and had a successful business background to boost the economy, had he won then Trump could not have run for the GOP nomination in 2016 either as Romney would have been President running for re election
    He would have made Biden look like a steady hand in comparison.
    He would have been mentally active and engaged unlike Biden.

    In fact a President Romney could well have been the best President of the 21st century. However too late now
    I see Trumpites still won't forgive him for voting against their beautiful man at both impeachments, and are seeking to primary Romney (if Romney is even intending to stand, which the article suggests he won't)

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/16/trump-ally-sean-reyes-mitt-romney-primary-00017741
    Romney will survive in Utah, it is full of Mormons who see him as one of their own. Utah was also the state which saw the biggest swing from Republican to Democrat from 2012 to 2016 and 2020, it is not a state which likes Trump
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577
    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    The Electoral Commission generic timetable for a general election says that the election takes place 25 working days after dissolution.

    Under DACOP, dissolution is on the fifth anniversary of the parliament first meeting, which was Tuesday 17 December 2019.

    25 working days from 17 December 2024, allowing for the four Bank Holidays in Scotland, is Monday 27 January 2025 - so, in effect, Thursday 23 January.

    So the report you've read seems to assume a longer election campaign than the Electoral Commission.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited March 2022

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I was with a retired Oncologist and his Historian wife earlier in the week. When I first met them over 30 years ago they were loyal one nation Conservatives. Since Black Wednesday they have been anything but, and now they both have a healthy detestation of Johnson. My Dr friend was fearful that what you suggest may come to pass by an unexpected quirk of history that benefits the unpopular Johnson. I reassured him that if Johnson* survives the economic Armageddon heading our way, even with an unexpected quirk of history, I would eat my socks.

    * That is not to say the Conservatives with a new one nation leader "might" or " might not" win the next GE.
  • Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,383

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    Hmmm.

    Prepare for a general election next year, No 10 staff told as inflation bites

    Rishi Sunak’s spring statement next week will highlight fault lines within a government already grappling with an energy crisis, the lockdown party scandal and Brexit


    When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The Australian strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.

    While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.

    He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.

    Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.

    “It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prepare-general-election-inflation-uk-ukraine-boris-johnson-fr8dgcwlw

    Delivering on the Brexit promises they made absolutely needs to be a priority. Aligned as it is to reducing inequality among the regions and levelling up.

    The Brexit campaign made many promises to the regions that leaving the EU would enable these regions to prosper. They need to deliver that.
    The idea of Brexit levelling up the regions of the North and the Midlands always was a mirage. It is a turbocharged fantasy on the back of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis.

    Throw some short term cash up the M1 by all means. In reality it won't help much in eighteen months, but it might look good on paper through the smoke and mirrors.
    How anyone was ever taken in by that one is what amazes me. What were the Northerners thinking of , leopard's do not change their spots.
    They use samew mince for Scotland every time as well and many fools are taken in time and time again despite the historical evidence that after they have your vote it is back to spending all the money in the south.
    The other thing is Malcolm, living here in South Wales, and I daresay Ayrshire and the Central Belt (I've listened to the Proclaimers, "Linwood no more, Methil no more") governments can throw incentives at regions, but as soon as those incentives stop "the Man" moves on to where the next set of incentives can be found.

    Levelling up may mean inviting Sony, Bosch, Honda, Panasonic, Peugeot, Ford and the like back to our shores, which may be expedient politically for the next election, but before you know it, they'll be off again.
    Same in the North East. Although Nissan have stayed plenty came for the incentives and left. Prime example being Samsung.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    Will the SNP want you if you talk about Scotland like that? 🙂
  • Applicant said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    The Electoral Commission generic timetable for a general election says that the election takes place 25 working days after dissolution.

    Under DACOP, dissolution is on the fifth anniversary of the parliament first meeting, which was Tuesday 17 December 2019.

    25 working days from 17 December 2024, allowing for the four Bank Holidays in Scotland, is Monday 27 January 2025 - so, in effect, Thursday 23 January.

    So the report you've read seems to assume a longer election campaign than the Electoral Commission.
    Thank you for your answer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    I know a few pretty wealthy people who describe themselves as farmers. I'd say that they own some farms, since they don't get stuck in with any physical or business aspect of running them.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I was with a retired Oncologist and his Historian wife earlier in the week. When I first met them over 30 years ago they were loyal one nation Conservatives. Since Black Wednesday they have been anything but, and now they both have a healthy detestation of Johnson. My Dr friend was fearful that what you suggest may come to pass by an unexpected quirk of history that benefits the unpopular Johnson. I reassured him that if Johnson* survives the economic Armageddon heading our way, even with an unexpected quirk of history, I would eat my socks.

    * That is not to say the Conservatives with a new one nation leader "might" or " might not" win the next GE.
    Your last sentence may prove to be prescient
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    Hmmm.

    Prepare for a general election next year, No 10 staff told as inflation bites

    Rishi Sunak’s spring statement next week will highlight fault lines within a government already grappling with an energy crisis, the lockdown party scandal and Brexit


    When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The Australian strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.

    While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.

    He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.

    Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.

    “It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prepare-general-election-inflation-uk-ukraine-boris-johnson-fr8dgcwlw

    Delivering on the Brexit promises they made absolutely needs to be a priority. Aligned as it is to reducing inequality among the regions and levelling up.

    The Brexit campaign made many promises to the regions that leaving the EU would enable these regions to prosper. They need to deliver that.
    The idea of Brexit levelling up the regions of the North and the Midlands always was a mirage. It is a turbocharged fantasy on the back of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis.

    Throw some short term cash up the M1 by all means. In reality it won't help much in eighteen months, but it might look good on paper through the smoke and mirrors.
    How anyone was ever taken in by that one is what amazes me. What were the Northerners thinking of , leopard's do not change their spots.
    They use samew mince for Scotland every time as well and many fools are taken in time and time again despite the historical evidence that after they have your vote it is back to spending all the money in the south.
    The other thing is Malcolm, living here in South Wales, and I daresay Ayrshire and the Central Belt (I've listened to the Proclaimers, "Linwood no more, Methil no more") governments can throw incentives at regions, but as soon as those incentives stop "the Man" moves on to where the next set of incentives can be found.

    Levelling up may mean inviting Sony, Bosch, Honda, Panasonic, Peugeot, Ford and the like back to our shores, which may be expedient politically for the next election, but before you know it, they'll be off again.
    Very true, yet other countries can manage it. Money better spent helping small local business where most people are actually employed.
    Not such a headline grabbing story though. One hundred 10 employee engineering start ups with fairly paid employees doesn't have the same ring to Uber opening a 1000 person call centre on poverty wages does it?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    HYUFD said:

    Gordon Brown and John Major want a Nuremberg style trial for Putin.

    Seems appropriate, after Putin's Nuremberg rally yesterday.
    Brown putting himself up for one given he was gung ho on Iraq and the lies of why we blew them back to the stoneage.
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    Will the SNP want you if you talk about Scotland like that? 🙂
    They will be desperate for anyone way they are going. Shedding members like snow off a dyke.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    I know a few pretty wealthy people who describe themselves as farmers. I'd say that they own some farms, since they don't get stuck in with any physical or business aspect of running them.
    'Farming' covers a multitude of sins. A relative owns a farm, but does none of the farming: she rents out all the land to neighbouring farmers. Another is a 'farmer' who only farms a little land: his main business is renting machinery and associated services. My sister and her hubby runs a tractor spares / restoration business for farmers and others.

    I'd never call the former a farmer; she does none of the work. The other two are in farming, but the latter barely so.

    It's like coal mining. We all think of miners as working underground, but AIUI the vast majority of workers were grass workers, on the surface. But they were still miners.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited March 2022
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    Hmmm.

    Prepare for a general election next year, No 10 staff told as inflation bites

    Rishi Sunak’s spring statement next week will highlight fault lines within a government already grappling with an energy crisis, the lockdown party scandal and Brexit


    When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The Australian strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.

    While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.

    He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.

    Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.

    “It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prepare-general-election-inflation-uk-ukraine-boris-johnson-fr8dgcwlw

    Delivering on the Brexit promises they made absolutely needs to be a priority. Aligned as it is to reducing inequality among the regions and levelling up.

    The Brexit campaign made many promises to the regions that leaving the EU would enable these regions to prosper. They need to deliver that.
    The idea of Brexit levelling up the regions of the North and the Midlands always was a mirage. It is a turbocharged fantasy on the back of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis.

    Throw some short term cash up the M1 by all means. In reality it won't help much in eighteen months, but it might look good on paper through the smoke and mirrors.
    How anyone was ever taken in by that one is what amazes me. What were the Northerners thinking of , leopard's do not change their spots.
    They use samew mince for Scotland every time as well and many fools are taken in time and time again despite the historical evidence that after they have your vote it is back to spending all the money in the south.
    The other thing is Malcolm, living here in South Wales, and I daresay Ayrshire and the Central Belt (I've listened to the Proclaimers, "Linwood no more, Methil no more") governments can throw incentives at regions, but as soon as those incentives stop "the Man" moves on to where the next set of incentives can be found.

    Levelling up may mean inviting Sony, Bosch, Honda, Panasonic, Peugeot, Ford and the like back to our shores, which may be expedient politically for the next election, but before you know it, they'll be off again.
    Same in the North East. Although Nissan have stayed plenty came for the incentives and left. Prime example being Samsung.
    Reading between the lines Nissan's incentives just kept on rolling in, particularly when they threatened to use spare Renault capacity at, I think, Billancourt.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    Will the SNP want you if you talk about Scotland like that? 🙂
    I saw that I'd left an open goal right there, I'm glad someone booted it in. A like from me.
    Happy to be of service.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
    Pains me to say it but I think G would vote for a donkey if it had a blue rosette
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    Hmmm.

    Prepare for a general election next year, No 10 staff told as inflation bites

    Rishi Sunak’s spring statement next week will highlight fault lines within a government already grappling with an energy crisis, the lockdown party scandal and Brexit


    When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The Australian strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.

    While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.

    He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.

    Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.

    “It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prepare-general-election-inflation-uk-ukraine-boris-johnson-fr8dgcwlw

    Delivering on the Brexit promises they made absolutely needs to be a priority. Aligned as it is to reducing inequality among the regions and levelling up.

    The Brexit campaign made many promises to the regions that leaving the EU would enable these regions to prosper. They need to deliver that.
    The idea of Brexit levelling up the regions of the North and the Midlands always was a mirage. It is a turbocharged fantasy on the back of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis.

    Throw some short term cash up the M1 by all means. In reality it won't help much in eighteen months, but it might look good on paper through the smoke and mirrors.
    How anyone was ever taken in by that one is what amazes me. What were the Northerners thinking of , leopard's do not change their spots.
    They use samew mince for Scotland every time as well and many fools are taken in time and time again despite the historical evidence that after they have your vote it is back to spending all the money in the south.
    The other thing is Malcolm, living here in South Wales, and I daresay Ayrshire and the Central Belt (I've listened to the Proclaimers, "Linwood no more, Methil no more") governments can throw incentives at regions, but as soon as those incentives stop "the Man" moves on to where the next set of incentives can be found.

    Levelling up may mean inviting Sony, Bosch, Honda, Panasonic, Peugeot, Ford and the like back to our shores, which may be expedient politically for the next election, but before you know it, they'll be off again.
    Same in the North East. Although Nissan have stayed plenty came for the incentives and left. Prime example being Samsung.
    Reading between the lines Nissan's incentives just kept on rolling in, particularly when they threatened to use spare Renault capacity at, I think, Billancourt.
    I got a lift in a Qashqai last week. I had to have a Silkwood Shower when I got home.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    My fate will be the least of our problems.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    One grandfather was a aircraft pilot in WWI, the other was in a reserved profession (auditor) during WWII and worked nights as a fireman in London during the blitz etc.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
    Pains me to say it but I think G would vote for a donkey if it had a blue rosette
    I'd imagine after voting for a corrupt rsole with a blue rosette, a donkey may come as a bit of a relief.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gordon Brown and John Major want a Nuremberg style trial for Putin.

    Seems appropriate, after Putin's Nuremberg rally yesterday.
    Brown putting himself up for one given he was gung ho on Iraq and the lies of why we blew them back to the stoneage.
    From reading The End of the Party, the impression I got of Brown regarding Iraq was pretty ambivalent. Apparently he failed to see how it could be a stick to beat Blair with but only got 'enthusiastic' when Blair promised he would go 'soon' if Brown supported it.

    My own recollection at the time (I was 12, an interested 12 year old but 12 nonetheless) was that Iraq was Blair's baby.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    Hmmm.

    Prepare for a general election next year, No 10 staff told as inflation bites

    Rishi Sunak’s spring statement next week will highlight fault lines within a government already grappling with an energy crisis, the lockdown party scandal and Brexit


    When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The Australian strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.

    While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.

    He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.

    Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.

    “It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prepare-general-election-inflation-uk-ukraine-boris-johnson-fr8dgcwlw

    Delivering on the Brexit promises they made absolutely needs to be a priority. Aligned as it is to reducing inequality among the regions and levelling up.

    The Brexit campaign made many promises to the regions that leaving the EU would enable these regions to prosper. They need to deliver that.
    The idea of Brexit levelling up the regions of the North and the Midlands always was a mirage. It is a turbocharged fantasy on the back of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis.

    Throw some short term cash up the M1 by all means. In reality it won't help much in eighteen months, but it might look good on paper through the smoke and mirrors.
    How anyone was ever taken in by that one is what amazes me. What were the Northerners thinking of , leopard's do not change their spots.
    They use samew mince for Scotland every time as well and many fools are taken in time and time again despite the historical evidence that after they have your vote it is back to spending all the money in the south.
    The other thing is Malcolm, living here in South Wales, and I daresay Ayrshire and the Central Belt (I've listened to the Proclaimers, "Linwood no more, Methil no more") governments can throw incentives at regions, but as soon as those incentives stop "the Man" moves on to where the next set of incentives can be found.

    Levelling up may mean inviting Sony, Bosch, Honda, Panasonic, Peugeot, Ford and the like back to our shores, which may be expedient politically for the next election, but before you know it, they'll be off again.
    Same in the North East. Although Nissan have stayed plenty came for the incentives and left. Prime example being Samsung.
    Reading between the lines Nissan's incentives just kept on rolling in, particularly when they threatened to use spare Renault capacity at, I think, Billancourt.
    I got a lift in a Qashqai last week. I had to have a Silkwood Shower when I got home.
    I know a couple who spent their hard earned on a Juke. Why? But then they were rabid Brexiteers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
    Pains me to say it but I think G would vote for a donkey if it had a blue rosette
    A donkey could well do less damage than St Bozza.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    Unpopular said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gordon Brown and John Major want a Nuremberg style trial for Putin.

    Seems appropriate, after Putin's Nuremberg rally yesterday.
    Brown putting himself up for one given he was gung ho on Iraq and the lies of why we blew them back to the stoneage.
    From reading The End of the Party, the impression I got of Brown regarding Iraq was pretty ambivalent. Apparently he failed to see how it could be a stick to beat Blair with but only got 'enthusiastic' when Blair promised he would go 'soon' if Brown supported it.

    My own recollection at the time (I was 12, an interested 12 year old but 12 nonetheless) was that Iraq was Blair's baby.
    Brown going awol from expressing a view over Iraq was entirely characteristic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Unpopular said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gordon Brown and John Major want a Nuremberg style trial for Putin.

    Seems appropriate, after Putin's Nuremberg rally yesterday.
    Brown putting himself up for one given he was gung ho on Iraq and the lies of why we blew them back to the stoneage.
    From reading The End of the Party, the impression I got of Brown regarding Iraq was pretty ambivalent. Apparently he failed to see how it could be a stick to beat Blair with but only got 'enthusiastic' when Blair promised he would go 'soon' if Brown supported it.

    My own recollection at the time (I was 12, an interested 12 year old but 12 nonetheless) was that Iraq was Blair's baby.
    Brown was the other cheek of Blair's arse. Only thing he ever cared about was himself and his overinflated ego.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
    Pains me to say it but I think G would vote for a donkey if it had a blue rosette
    A donkey could well do less damage than St Bozza.
    Lol. Says the Bum Licker in Chief for Alex Salmond
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
    Pains me to say it but I think G would vote for a donkey if it had a blue rosette
    Lol. Says the Bum Licker in Chief for Alex Salmond
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    p.s. And before anyone says, 'yes but you said Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to invade', remember I predicated that on the knowledge that 200,000 troops was insufficient to guarantee outright victory and that the might of Russian military capability was exaggerated. Correct reasons. Just overlooked the rather important fact that we were dealing with a lunatic.

    Did you actually state those reasons on here? Because I cannot remember you saying that beforehand.

    .
    I did indeed. For some reason I can't get back quotes to paste as quotes but if you look back here are a couple, verbatim. I made the point regularly that I didn't think there were sufficient Russian forces in place to be sure of victory, especially on multiple fronts and that Russian military might has been overplayed. Couple of examples:

    Feb 9th

    "The Russian military might has been exaggerated ever since 1945. In fact it became something of a running joke when I had an involvement in this subject. That's not to downplay, but as you say to invade Ukraine properly would take a really serious concentration and I don't believe that Putin's deployment (of 200,000) was on that kind of magnitude."

    Feb 7th

    "As I have stated on here [...[ they don't have anything like sufficient forces in place."



    Russia had 190k troops to start with. Let's be generous and say they also had (or now have) 60k auxiliaries, be they Belarusian, Chechen, Syrian or "other".

    That's 250k.

    What are they all doing?

    Well, look at this map. They are split across six main thrusts: Kyiv from the north, Kyiv from the east, north from Mykolaiv (ultimately this one wants to hook round to Odessa), a pincer movement on Mariupol from both the Melitopol area and Donetsk region, and one on Kharkiv. I suppose you could add a couple more mini-ones donkeying around trying to expand into Ukraine from the breakaway regions in the far-east of the country:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

    They are also tying up troops and artillery investing other cities like Chernihiv, Konotop, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Mykolaiv. Their tanks and armoured vehicles will mainly be in the mobile 'thrusts'.

    You don't have to be a mathematical genius to work out that if even if their tanks and armoured forces constitute half their army they are split at least six ways, so probably have no more than 15,000-25,000 men in each one, perhaps slightly stronger in the Kyiv wing, and they will have had to detach 1/4 of those to protect their supply lines. And even if you assumed *all* the rest are combat troops, which they won't be, that leaves barely 20,000 a piece to invest 6 x different major Ukrainian cities. Cities where they have mobilised almost all the adult male population, with probably equal numbers of Ukrainian regulars to the Russians and vast numbers of militia on top.

    Now, we know they've suffered casualties - even they admit that - and let's say that's about 10%, so about 25k men killed, injured, wounded, captured or "missing", and that these will be concentrated in the front-line infantry and tank forces. So they will be even weaker here where city fighting normally requires overwhelming superiority.

    So, rather than asking "why have they stalled" we should be asking "we wouldn't they stall?"

    As I said yesterday, Putin is attacking like he has over a million men, and he doesn't.

    Instead, he's convinced himself he's like Stalin and capable of conquest of the whole centre and east of the country. Thus, he's fallen victim to hubris.
    There was an assessment yesterday from some military bod, suggesting that Russia may have lost half of its frontline spearhead troops.

    Reports overnight of several more Russian columns destroyed won't have helped.

    I remember reading that in the Vietnam War, as few as 15% of the US troops sent over there were the grunts in contact with the enemy.
    Good point. I'm no expert but isn't this the norm for most wars. Of all the people I know/knew who were in WW2 which is my parents generation, so a lot. I am only aware of 2 that actually saw real action.
    One of my grandfathers was in the education corps in India during ww2 so did no actual fighting. My other grandfather was in the merchant navy so didn't fight either although his boat was sunk by a German submarine in the Indian Ocean (he survived). One of my grandmothers drove an ambulance during the blitz in Plymouth so she probably saw more energy action and death and destruction than anyone else in the family.
    Dad was one of five brothers, all were actively involved in the war - three as gunners, one in the RAF, one in the ambulance corps. Three were unscathed, Dad was wounded at Tobruk and invalided out of action; his youngest brother Albert was amongst the first into Belsen and the experience deranged him to the extent that he never properly recovered and hebecame an alcoholic.

    I suspect they represent a fairly characteristic cohort.
    My paternal granddad was in DEMS, serving on ships at sea, before he got posted ashore to Portsmouth because of his maths skills (a captain said he was 'wasted' at sea.)

    We recently discovered that one of my mum's uncles was evacuated off the beach at Dunkirk. Aside from that, my maternal grandmother worked in the war rooms at Liverpool before she got married and had my mum.

    As far as we are aware, we have never lost a member of our family in war. On that count, we have been blessed. And I hope that continues.
    Had one family member who was taken prisoner at Monte Casino - suffered mental health issues until his early death.

    Another was on ground crew for bombers - hosing out the remains of rear gunners on return to base.

    Grandfather was blown up in the air by an artillery shell and had problems walking for the rest of his life.
    Some absolutely fascinating but often appalling family stories on PB today.
    Carnyx, I know you like books , if you get a chance , look for MOUNTAIN AND FLOOD The History of 52nd (Lowland) Division. It is a very good read.
    Thanks for that! I think a friend has the original edition - one of those division's own histories. I Hadn't realised it had been reprinted by Naval and Military Press, so have noted that down on the list.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    Probably qualifies you for a million pound bonus pension payout when you are about 90 given the dwindling numbers of miners and the surpluses of the Mineworkers pension scheme as it stands!
  • Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    Probably qualifies you for a million pound bonus pension payout when you are about 90 given the dwindling numbers of miners and the surpluses of the Mineworkers pension scheme as it stands!
    Depends if Ian Lavery got his hands on it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It would have had to be by May 24 under the FTPA, so not sure what the new Bill would do that would extend the life of this parliament to over 5 years - do you have a link?
    The new act will contain a clause that Parliament will be dissolved when Jacob Rees Mogg talks sense and the election held six weeks later.

    Thereby postponing the election until six weeks after the Last Trump(ism).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
    Pains me to say it but I think G would vote for a donkey if it had a blue rosette
    A donkey could well do less damage than St Bozza.
    Lol. Says the Bum Licker in Chief for Alex Salmond
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    It will take longer than that for people to forget about his lawbreaking and dishonesty
    Hardly the answer to the question and I did not mention Boris
    It is, to mine.
    What on earth are you going to do if Boris wins 5 more years from 2025
    I'd probably join the SNP and try to help apply the coup de grace to this sorry country.
    How about you?
    I will just be happy to be living in my old age and enjoying my grandchildren
    You're going to vote for him again, aren't you?
    Depends entirely on the offers being made by the parties
    Pains me to say it but I think G would vote for a donkey if it had a blue rosette
    Lol. Says the Bum Licker in Chief for Alex Salmond
    I see our resident cockroach returns. Fuck off Gammon boy is the best I could say about you. Go play tag with the lorries on the M25 you deadbeat.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    Presumably you know that quite a few people were conscripted into the coal mines during WW2. (I mean, sent by HMG from all over to work there, on top of the established mining workforce which AIUI was 'reserved' from conscription). 'Bevan's Boys' they were called. Quite the culture shock for some.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    p.s. And before anyone says, 'yes but you said Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to invade', remember I predicated that on the knowledge that 200,000 troops was insufficient to guarantee outright victory and that the might of Russian military capability was exaggerated. Correct reasons. Just overlooked the rather important fact that we were dealing with a lunatic.

    Did you actually state those reasons on here? Because I cannot remember you saying that beforehand.

    .
    I did indeed. For some reason I can't get back quotes to paste as quotes but if you look back here are a couple, verbatim. I made the point regularly that I didn't think there were sufficient Russian forces in place to be sure of victory, especially on multiple fronts and that Russian military might has been overplayed. Couple of examples:

    Feb 9th

    "The Russian military might has been exaggerated ever since 1945. In fact it became something of a running joke when I had an involvement in this subject. That's not to downplay, but as you say to invade Ukraine properly would take a really serious concentration and I don't believe that Putin's deployment (of 200,000) was on that kind of magnitude."

    Feb 7th

    "As I have stated on here [...[ they don't have anything like sufficient forces in place."



    Russia had 190k troops to start with. Let's be generous and say they also had (or now have) 60k auxiliaries, be they Belarusian, Chechen, Syrian or "other".

    That's 250k.

    What are they all doing?

    Well, look at this map. They are split across six main thrusts: Kyiv from the north, Kyiv from the east, north from Mykolaiv (ultimately this one wants to hook round to Odessa), a pincer movement on Mariupol from both the Melitopol area and Donetsk region, and one on Kharkiv. I suppose you could add a couple more mini-ones donkeying around trying to expand into Ukraine from the breakaway regions in the far-east of the country:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

    They are also tying up troops and artillery investing other cities like Chernihiv, Konotop, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Mykolaiv. Their tanks and armoured vehicles will mainly be in the mobile 'thrusts'.

    You don't have to be a mathematical genius to work out that if even if their tanks and armoured forces constitute half their army they are split at least six ways, so probably have no more than 15,000-25,000 men in each one, perhaps slightly stronger in the Kyiv wing, and they will have had to detach 1/4 of those to protect their supply lines. And even if you assumed *all* the rest are combat troops, which they won't be, that leaves barely 20,000 a piece to invest 6 x different major Ukrainian cities. Cities where they have mobilised almost all the adult male population, with probably equal numbers of Ukrainian regulars to the Russians and vast numbers of militia on top.

    Now, we know they've suffered casualties - even they admit that - and let's say that's about 10%, so about 25k men killed, injured, wounded, captured or "missing", and that these will be concentrated in the front-line infantry and tank forces. So they will be even weaker here where city fighting normally requires overwhelming superiority.

    So, rather than asking "why have they stalled" we should be asking "we wouldn't they stall?"

    As I said yesterday, Putin is attacking like he has over a million men, and he doesn't.

    Instead, he's convinced himself he's like Stalin and capable of conquest of the whole centre and east of the country. Thus, he's fallen victim to hubris.
    There was an assessment yesterday from some military bod, suggesting that Russia may have lost half of its frontline spearhead troops.

    Reports overnight of several more Russian columns destroyed won't have helped.

    I remember reading that in the Vietnam War, as few as 15% of the US troops sent over there were the grunts in contact with the enemy.
    Good point. I'm no expert but isn't this the norm for most wars. Of all the people I know/knew who were in WW2 which is my parents generation, so a lot. I am only aware of 2 that actually saw real action.
    One of my grandfathers was in the education corps in India during ww2 so did no actual fighting. My other grandfather was in the merchant navy so didn't fight either although his boat was sunk by a German submarine in the Indian Ocean (he survived). One of my grandmothers drove an ambulance during the blitz in Plymouth so she probably saw more energy action and death and destruction than anyone else in the family.
    Dad was one of five brothers, all were actively involved in the war - three as gunners, one in the RAF, one in the ambulance corps. Three were unscathed, Dad was wounded at Tobruk and invalided out of action; his youngest brother Albert was amongst the first into Belsen and the experience deranged him to the extent that he never properly recovered and hebecame an alcoholic.

    I suspect they represent a fairly characteristic cohort.
    My paternal granddad was in DEMS, serving on ships at sea, before he got posted ashore to Portsmouth because of his maths skills (a captain said he was 'wasted' at sea.)

    We recently discovered that one of my mum's uncles was evacuated off the beach at Dunkirk. Aside from that, my maternal grandmother worked in the war rooms at Liverpool before she got married and had my mum.

    As far as we are aware, we have never lost a member of our family in war. On that count, we have been blessed. And I hope that continues.
    Had one family member who was taken prisoner at Monte Casino - suffered mental health issues until his early death.

    Another was on ground crew for bombers - hosing out the remains of rear gunners on return to base.

    Grandfather was blown up in the air by an artillery shell and had problems walking for the rest of his life.
    Some absolutely fascinating but often appalling family stories on PB today.
    Carnyx, I know you like books , if you get a chance , look for MOUNTAIN AND FLOOD The History of 52nd (Lowland) Division. It is a very good read.
    Thanks for that! I think a friend has the original edition - one of those division's own histories. I Hadn't realised it had been reprinted by Naval and Military Press, so have noted that down on the list.
    I have one of the originals, very detailed and great read.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    Presumably you know that quite a few people were conscripted into the coal mines during WW2. (I mean, sent by HMG from all over to work there, on top of the established mining workforce which AIUI was 'reserved' from conscription). 'Bevan's Boys' they were called. Quite the culture shock for some.
    Yeah, read a book about them yonks ago. Many hated it. A few seemed to love it. A bit like evacuees: some kids loved their new homes, whilst others hated the experience.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    I know a few pretty wealthy people who describe themselves as farmers. I'd say that they own some farms, since they don't get stuck in with any physical or business aspect of running them.
    'Farming' covers a multitude of sins. A relative owns a farm, but does none of the farming: she rents out all the land to neighbouring farmers. Another is a 'farmer' who only farms a little land: his main business is renting machinery and associated services. My sister and her hubby runs a tractor spares / restoration business for farmers and others.

    I'd never call the former a farmer; she does none of the work. The other two are in farming, but the latter barely so.

    It's like coal mining. We all think of miners as working underground, but AIUI the vast majority of workers were grass workers, on the surface. But they were still miners.
    I inherited a small field myself in the Borders from a forebear - the legal paperwork costs were out of proportion ... but the local farmer rents it and sends me a modest cheque annually to mutual satisfaction.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    Presumably you know that quite a few people were conscripted into the coal mines during WW2. (I mean, sent by HMG from all over to work there, on top of the established mining workforce which AIUI was 'reserved' from conscription). 'Bevan's Boys' they were called. Quite the culture shock for some.
    Wasn’t it Bevin’s Boys not Bevan’s Boys?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,383

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    Taz said:

    Hmmm.

    Prepare for a general election next year, No 10 staff told as inflation bites

    Rishi Sunak’s spring statement next week will highlight fault lines within a government already grappling with an energy crisis, the lockdown party scandal and Brexit


    When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The Australian strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year.

    While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods yet” over the No 10 lockdown parties scandal and Conservative MPs needed to be wooed, especially those who have openly plotted against the prime minister. “They are all God’s children,” he said.

    He presented staff with a slide showing the government’s five priorities.

    Delivering on the promises of Brexit was at the top of the list. “If you don’t think that’s a priority you shouldn’t be here,” Canzini said. The cost-of-living crisis was second, and the NHS, crime and migrant boats were the others.

    “It was a strange list of priorities,” one government aide said. “We’re on the brink of a generational cost-of-living crisis and yet Brexit was top of the list.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prepare-general-election-inflation-uk-ukraine-boris-johnson-fr8dgcwlw

    Delivering on the Brexit promises they made absolutely needs to be a priority. Aligned as it is to reducing inequality among the regions and levelling up.

    The Brexit campaign made many promises to the regions that leaving the EU would enable these regions to prosper. They need to deliver that.
    The idea of Brexit levelling up the regions of the North and the Midlands always was a mirage. It is a turbocharged fantasy on the back of a pandemic and in the midst of an economic crisis.

    Throw some short term cash up the M1 by all means. In reality it won't help much in eighteen months, but it might look good on paper through the smoke and mirrors.
    How anyone was ever taken in by that one is what amazes me. What were the Northerners thinking of , leopard's do not change their spots.
    They use samew mince for Scotland every time as well and many fools are taken in time and time again despite the historical evidence that after they have your vote it is back to spending all the money in the south.
    The other thing is Malcolm, living here in South Wales, and I daresay Ayrshire and the Central Belt (I've listened to the Proclaimers, "Linwood no more, Methil no more") governments can throw incentives at regions, but as soon as those incentives stop "the Man" moves on to where the next set of incentives can be found.

    Levelling up may mean inviting Sony, Bosch, Honda, Panasonic, Peugeot, Ford and the like back to our shores, which may be expedient politically for the next election, but before you know it, they'll be off again.
    Same in the North East. Although Nissan have stayed plenty came for the incentives and left. Prime example being Samsung.
    Reading between the lines Nissan's incentives just kept on rolling in, particularly when they threatened to use spare Renault capacity at, I think, Billancourt.
    True but no different to any major automotive tier 1 given the chronic over capacity that exists.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    Presumably you know that quite a few people were conscripted into the coal mines during WW2. (I mean, sent by HMG from all over to work there, on top of the established mining workforce which AIUI was 'reserved' from conscription). 'Bevan's Boys' they were called. Quite the culture shock for some.
    Wasn’t it Bevin’s Boys not Bevan’s Boys?
    Yes, so it was! Thank you.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    I know a few pretty wealthy people who describe themselves as farmers. I'd say that they own some farms, since they don't get stuck in with any physical or business aspect of running them.
    'Farming' covers a multitude of sins. A relative owns a farm, but does none of the farming: she rents out all the land to neighbouring farmers. Another is a 'farmer' who only farms a little land: his main business is renting machinery and associated services. My sister and her hubby runs a tractor spares / restoration business for farmers and others.

    I'd never call the former a farmer; she does none of the work. The other two are in farming, but the latter barely so.

    It's like coal mining. We all think of miners as working underground, but AIUI the vast majority of workers were grass workers, on the surface. But they were still miners.
    I inherited a small field myself in the Borders from a forebear - the legal paperwork costs were out of proportion ... but the local farmer rents it and sends me a modest cheque annually to mutual satisfaction.
    Sounds like a wonderful opportunity to create an oasis for wildlife.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577
    Don't know if it is true, but this is funny:

    https://twitter.com/Ronaldo_uber/status/1505124900062773251
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    I know a few pretty wealthy people who describe themselves as farmers. I'd say that they own some farms, since they don't get stuck in with any physical or business aspect of running them.
    'Farming' covers a multitude of sins. A relative owns a farm, but does none of the farming: she rents out all the land to neighbouring farmers. Another is a 'farmer' who only farms a little land: his main business is renting machinery and associated services. My sister and her hubby runs a tractor spares / restoration business for farmers and others.

    I'd never call the former a farmer; she does none of the work. The other two are in farming, but the latter barely so.

    It's like coal mining. We all think of miners as working underground, but AIUI the vast majority of workers were grass workers, on the surface. But they were still miners.
    I inherited a small field myself in the Borders from a forebear - the legal paperwork costs were out of proportion ... but the local farmer rents it and sends me a modest cheque annually to mutual satisfaction.
    Sounds like a wonderful opportunity to create an oasis for wildlife.
    Which is what the farmer will be doing anyway in 3 years time

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/environmental-land-management-schemes-overview

    (Different but similar scheme N of the border)
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,383

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited March 2022
    10 % of the younger conscripts, under 25, were Bevin Boys. Chosen by lot.
    The list is quite eclectic. Jimmy Savile, Nat Lofthouse, Stanley Baxter, Eric Morecambe, Brian Rix.
  • This is my great grand uncle Herbert just after signing up as a Royal Artillery gunner. He was captured at Singapore and died in a Japanese POW camp in Thailand.

    This is Herbert's big brother Harry (centre, back row)

    He was in the Pioneer Corps. I don't know much actual action he saw, but I know he was in North Africa, Sicily, Italy, France, Belgium, Holland and Germany. I've got a local newspaper cutting from his first post-war leave back home. He was sent into Ostend just after the Canadians had liberated it; they were chasing retreating Germans so hadn't been able to secure the city.

    The article says "they received a tremendous welcome from the townspeople. United Nations flags were flying from nearly every window and the civilians could not do enough for the boys. Harry made quite a number of friends in the town and was very sorry to leave. One of the people he met was a Belgian woman who had lived in England and spoke faultless English. Another was the Dean of Ostend, who gave him presents for his mother."

    I'd love to know what presents he took home for his Mam! I did meet uncle Harry when I was very young, but he died in 1985 just before my seventh birthday.



  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Morning all :)

    I'm giving the Stodge Saturday Patent a rest this week as there's no proper racing today and there's only so much punishment you and I can take.

    Perhaps @ping can provide some selections today as he had such a good Cheltenham.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241

    dixiedean said:

    Good morning

    A genuine question

    Did I read it correctly that the next GE could be as late as February 25

    Extraordinary if true as that is virtually 3 years away

    23 January AIUI. 6 weeks after five years if FTPA is repealed.
    But could be wrong.
    January 25 seems extraordinary as that is nearly one year beyond the expected date
    Only because the FTPA effectively fixed the life of this parliament to less than four and a half years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I look forward to Starmer's take on this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    Someone should ask Starmer “can a woman commit rape?”
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    dixiedean said:

    10 % of the younger conscripts, under 25, were Bevin Boys. Chosen by lot.
    The list is quite eclectic. Jimmy Savile, Nat Lofthouse, Stanley Baxter, Eric Morecambe, Brian Rix.

    In one case inspiring a lifelong interest in miners..sorry, minors.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Unpopular said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gordon Brown and John Major want a Nuremberg style trial for Putin.

    Seems appropriate, after Putin's Nuremberg rally yesterday.
    Brown putting himself up for one given he was gung ho on Iraq and the lies of why we blew them back to the stoneage.
    From reading The End of the Party, the impression I got of Brown regarding Iraq was pretty ambivalent. Apparently he failed to see how it could be a stick to beat Blair with but only got 'enthusiastic' when Blair promised he would go 'soon' if Brown supported it.

    My own recollection at the time (I was 12, an interested 12 year old but 12 nonetheless) was that Iraq was Blair's baby.
    Brown going awol from expressing a view over Iraq was entirely characteristic.
    To be fair, the infamous Granita "agreement" included Brown having huge control over economic and domestic policy, not so much foreign. That was seen as Blair's thing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited March 2022

    This is my great grand uncle Herbert just after signing up as a Royal Artillery gunner. He was captured at Singapore and died in a Japanese POW camp in Thailand.

    This is Herbert's big brother Harry (centre, back row)

    He was in the Pioneer Corps. I don't know much actual action he saw, but I know he was in North Africa, Sicily, Italy, France, Belgium, Holland and Germany. I've got a local newspaper cutting from his first post-war leave back home. He was sent into Ostend just after the Canadians had liberated it; they were chasing retreating Germans so hadn't been able to secure the city.

    The article says "they received a tremendous welcome from the townspeople. United Nations flags were flying from nearly every window and the civilians could not do enough for the boys. Harry made quite a number of friends in the town and was very sorry to leave. One of the people he met was a Belgian woman who had lived in England and spoke faultless English. Another was the Dean of Ostend, who gave him presents for his mother."

    I'd love to know what presents he took home for his Mam! I did meet uncle Harry when I was very young, but he died in 1985 just before my seventh birthday.



    Not sure if it has been covered, but if he died in 1985 it is past the 25 year limit to apply for a service history with more detail for £30 without being immediate kin - not sure if "nephew" is "immediate kin".

    I have a couple of interesting relatives who were in the forces - an uncle was a Padre in India in WW2 and had Huntingdon's Disease, and I have two grandparent generation people who were in the trenches, of whom one killed himself aiui and the other had lifelong mental health issues.

    https://www.gov.uk/get-copy-military-service-records/apply-for-someone-elses-records
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    edited March 2022

    Unpopular said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gordon Brown and John Major want a Nuremberg style trial for Putin.

    Seems appropriate, after Putin's Nuremberg rally yesterday.
    Brown putting himself up for one given he was gung ho on Iraq and the lies of why we blew them back to the stoneage.
    From reading The End of the Party, the impression I got of Brown regarding Iraq was pretty ambivalent. Apparently he failed to see how it could be a stick to beat Blair with but only got 'enthusiastic' when Blair promised he would go 'soon' if Brown supported it.

    My own recollection at the time (I was 12, an interested 12 year old but 12 nonetheless) was that Iraq was Blair's baby.
    Brown going awol from expressing a view over Iraq was entirely characteristic.
    To be fair, the infamous Granita "agreement" included Brown having huge control over economic and domestic policy, not so much foreign. That was seen as Blair's thing.
    I assume lots of new cheques had to be signed for Iraq?
    In any case my point was more about what was probably the greatest moral issue of the first decade of the C20th and the man who was never slow to mention his moral compass when it suited him.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Sobering to read some of the comments on this thread about relatives' experiences - they were such an amazing generation. My own parents were lucky - my father had a desk job in intelligence (which he almost never talked about, loyal to the Official Secrets Act), my mother worked for UNRRA for refugees, and talked matter-of-factly as the worst moment being driving through Hammersmith while the buildings on both sides were on fire. Neither experienced any harm at all.

    On a more cheerful note, it's always fun to argue about lists, and here's the happiness list, with FINLAND winning again. Makes sense!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/19/finland-named-worlds-happiest-country-for-fifth-year-running

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    I know a few pretty wealthy people who describe themselves as farmers. I'd say that they own some farms, since they don't get stuck in with any physical or business aspect of running them.
    'Farming' covers a multitude of sins. A relative owns a farm, but does none of the farming: she rents out all the land to neighbouring farmers. Another is a 'farmer' who only farms a little land: his main business is renting machinery and associated services. My sister and her hubby runs a tractor spares / restoration business for farmers and others.

    I'd never call the former a farmer; she does none of the work. The other two are in farming, but the latter barely so.

    It's like coal mining. We all think of miners as working underground, but AIUI the vast majority of workers were grass workers, on the surface. But they were still miners.
    I inherited a small field myself in the Borders from a forebear - the legal paperwork costs were out of proportion ... but the local farmer rents it and sends me a modest cheque annually to mutual satisfaction.
    I'd call the two in machinery as diversification.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Sobering to read some of the comments on this thread about relatives' experiences - they were such an amazing generation. My own parents were lucky - my father had a desk job in intelligence (which he almost never talked about, loyal to the Official Secrets Act), my mother worked for UNRRA for refugees, and talked matter-of-factly as the worst moment being driving through Hammersmith while the buildings on both sides were on fire. Neither experienced any harm at all.

    On a more cheerful note, it's always fun to argue about lists, and here's the happiness list, with FINLAND winning again. Makes sense!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/19/finland-named-worlds-happiest-country-for-fifth-year-running

    Vlad may decide to lower their ranking if he isn't defeated in Ukraine.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .

    Sobering to read some of the comments on this thread about relatives' experiences - they were such an amazing generation. My own parents were lucky - my father had a desk job in intelligence (which he almost never talked about, loyal to the Official Secrets Act), my mother worked for UNRRA for refugees, and talked matter-of-factly as the worst moment being driving through Hammersmith while the buildings on both sides were on fire. Neither experienced any harm at all.

    On a more cheerful note, it's always fun to argue about lists, and here's the happiness list, with FINLAND winning again. Makes sense!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/19/finland-named-worlds-happiest-country-for-fifth-year-running

    Finland, Finland, Finland
    The country where I quite want to be
    Your mountains so lofty
    Your treetops so tall
    Finland, Finland, Finland
    Finland has it all
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    The hospital's initial response borders on - and possibly crosses over - the line of obstruction of justice.

    It is certainly in breach of its duty of care to its female patients.
    Criminal investigation required but I wouldn't hold my breath.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    My mother was at the younger end of a large family, so most of my maternal cousins are older than I, and several of them served in WWII. It was discovered some time after the war that one, in the WRNS, had sent the signal which sent another, a Commando, ashore at Walcheren Island on the Dutch coast in November 1944.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Surely it is central as like the Rochdale grooming or Stephen Lawrence cases predominant ideology and belief systems caused grotesque actions by public servants.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956

    My mother was at the younger end of a large family, so most of my maternal cousins are older than I, and several of them served in WWII. It was discovered some time after the war that one, in the WRNS, had sent the signal which sent another, a Commando, ashore at Walcheren Island on the Dutch coast in November 1944.

    Have you watched The Forgotten Battle, a film about the Battle of the Scheldt/Walcheren? Decent enough though the plot gets a bit schlocky towards the end. Might be of extra interest due to your family connections.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Forgotten_Battle
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    You need to calibrate your brain to unthinking worship of The Rules. Dial the Humanity thing down to a quiet background hum.

    1) The Rules say that it is Transphobic to say that a person identifying as a woman is a man.
    2) The Law Says only men can commit rape.
    3) from 1) there were no men present
    4) From 3) & 2) there was no rape. Anyone who says there was a rape is a Transphobe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Cyclefree said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    The hospital's initial response borders on - and possibly crosses over - the line of obstruction of justice.

    It is certainly in breach of its duty of care to its female patients.
    If the victim had become pregnant by this rape - would it have been two women on the birth certificate then?

    As far as the victim was concerned, she had been raped by a man. Does that count for nothing?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My granddad used to joke about his heroic service...in 1946, of being on a submarine once. Briefly. Said his parents had very good timing so he was still 17 when the war ended.

    I think my other granddad worked on planes in the war, but cannot be sure as my dad hated him so only met him like twice.

    I've worked at a coal mine. Yes, I was a miner!

    Well... I drove a mini-digger at one of the mines near Stoke in about 1990. For one afternoon. From memory, the safety induction took longer than the work...
    I know a few pretty wealthy people who describe themselves as farmers. I'd say that they own some farms, since they don't get stuck in with any physical or business aspect of running them.
    'Farming' covers a multitude of sins. A relative owns a farm, but does none of the farming: she rents out all the land to neighbouring farmers. Another is a 'farmer' who only farms a little land: his main business is renting machinery and associated services. My sister and her hubby runs a tractor spares / restoration business for farmers and others.

    I'd never call the former a farmer; she does none of the work. The other two are in farming, but the latter barely so.

    It's like coal mining. We all think of miners as working underground, but AIUI the vast majority of workers were grass workers, on the surface. But they were still miners.
    I inherited a small field myself in the Borders from a forebear - the legal paperwork costs were out of proportion ... but the local farmer rents it and sends me a modest cheque annually to mutual satisfaction.
    Sounds like a wonderful opportunity to create an oasis for wildlife.
    Hadn't thought of that. Good point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Interesting

    https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/mercedes-f1-car-borrows-a-few-tricks-from-rocket-technology/8895120/

    Seems that Mercedes *did* use Reaction Engines technology in their intercooler.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    There was a superbly clear-headed interview wrt Russia-Ukraine:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXi63nZiVAE

    (7 minutes)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    edited March 2022

    My mother was at the younger end of a large family, so most of my maternal cousins are older than I, and several of them served in WWII. It was discovered some time after the war that one, in the WRNS, had sent the signal which sent another, a Commando, ashore at Walcheren Island on the Dutch coast in November 1944.

    Have you watched The Forgotten Battle, a film about the Battle of the Scheldt/Walcheren? Decent enough though the plot gets a bit schlocky towards the end. Might be of extra interest due to your family connections.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Forgotten_Battle
    Thanks. As one might expect of a Commando my cousin was in several 'sticky' situations. However he survived the war, married, and ended up managing a small transport business. Died a few years ago, as have most of the 20 or so grandchildren of my maternal grandparents.

    Later edit: I've looked at the summary on Wikipedia. Near where I now live was a big glider base. There's a pub on the flight path and because gliders take a while to get airborne the roof had to be removed during the war, because otherwise it was a hazard to the gliders.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,383

    Cyclefree said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    The hospital's initial response borders on - and possibly crosses over - the line of obstruction of justice.

    It is certainly in breach of its duty of care to its female patients.
    If the victim had become pregnant by this rape - would it have been two women on the birth certificate then?

    As far as the victim was concerned, she had been raped by a man. Does that count for nothing?
    Bigoted victims need their views challenging in that case.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19511699.scottish-greens-defend-rape-centre-boss-mridul-wadhwa-bigoted-survivors-row/
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Cyclefree said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    The imbecilic nature of the response derives very directly from the insistence on believing that a man was a woman and then, when the risk that many women have pointed out, turned into reality preferring to lie rather than admit what happened.

    It is worth noting - if the reports are accurate - that the hospital told two lies: (1) that there was no man on the ward; and (2) therefore there was no rape. I.e. they implicitly admitted that only men can rape (though in fact women can be guilty of rape as aides and abetters) and, even worse, they were willing to accuse the victim of being a liar. They maintained this stance for a year.

    Imagine the trauma for the victim. Imagine too what the delay in getting the truth does for the chances of bringing the perpetrator to justice.

    Oh, I forgot. Even if he's convicted he can claim to be a woman, be put in a woman's prison and be free to rape all over again.

    The whole thing is not simply imbecilic. It is disgusting.
    I disagree with this analysis.

    There was a safeguarding issue because a serious sexual assault was carried out on the ward. So far as we can tell from the Baroness' speech, the whole issue was dismissed by the staff and/or Trust because the complainant (i.e. victim) used the word "rape" and thus we went through the whole tortuous logic Malmsbury refers to.

    I don't recognise any situation where that is an appropriate response, whether you consider the perpetrator a man, woman, or alien. It is tantamount to responding to a complaint "the black guy over there punched me" with the response "no, the black guy over there did not punch you, because he is not black". The victim need not use the right words in order to have their complaint properly dealt with.


  • TazTaz Posts: 14,383
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
    Also,of,concern is baroness Nicholson claims there are 5 or 6 further cases.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
    I suspect that, sorry Ms Cyclefree, but there were a couple of 'tough' Sisters on that ward:
    'What, a man on my ward! Nonsense!'
    And no-one argued with them.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
    I'm not even sure it is a correct assessment of the law, it would appear by all accounts that the perpetrator had a penis.

    The law does say "his penis" (etc.) but there is plenty of law on the statute book that refers to "he" when it means "a person".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
    Also,of,concern is baroness Nicholson claims there are 5 or 6 further cases.
    I hadn't got that far. It just gets worse and worse.

    What the hell is wrong with people?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2022
    Grandfathers - one too young for the First, too old for the Second (and I remember it coming up in conversation in the sixties). The other, also too young for the First lied about his age to sign up. Pretty promptly ended up a POW and spent a year or so in a German camp.

    Grandmothers. One, the eldest of 10 in Wick, fisherman father, was sent into Service, but her Granny read of a murder in Glasgow, so she was diverted to London instead. When I tried to explain to her how to use an escalator she commented she’d been running on and off them as a teenager. When she’d remark “worse things happen at sea” she knew of what she spoke.

    The other grandmother was the youngest of 11, so while her elder siblings were sent out to work, like my Wick Grandmother, she and her older sister were trained as a teacher and pharmacist respectively. When she got her first car in the 1920s to drive to Glamis school, her engineer brother advised her that as roads then had a considerable camber, best to drive in the middle, a habit she found difficult to shake. I wish I’d understood at the time what a kick it gave her to tell people that her grandchild was going to Oxford - an unimaginable achievement for a jute mill worker’s daughter. As a teenager I was mortified.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
    I'm not even sure it is a correct assessment of the law, it would appear by all accounts that the perpetrator had a penis.

    The law does say "his penis" (etc.) but there is plenty of law on the statute book that refers to "he" when it means "a person".
    i think you've slightly missed the point. We're not talking about the law on what rape is or isn't. That's crystal clear. It's the hospital's response that is the issue by conflating 'identifying as a woman' with 'not having a penis.'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    Someone should ask Starmer “can a woman commit rape?”
    In Scotland the answer is unequivocally yes and in 2 separate ways. Firstly, the definition of rape includes penetration by a "surgically constructed penis" and secondly, a woman can be, and has been convicted of rape art and part. It is not a part of the definition of rape in Scotland that the offender is classed as male and it is bluntly irrelevant how they self-identfy. This seems to me something Scotland has got right and if this is not the law in England it should be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Patrick Reevell
    @Reevellp
    Crazy scene. People in a Russian supermarket frantically scuffling for bags of sugar amid worries of shortages because of the war in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1505124192848650241
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    GG has gone full 'For the Motherland, for Stalin!'
    Presumably the shutting down of lucrative RT gigs has sent him tonto.




  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    GG has gone full 'For the Motherland, for Stalin!'
    Presumably the shutting down of lucrative RT gigs has sent him tonto.




    'sent him?'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Applicant said:

    .

    Sobering to read some of the comments on this thread about relatives' experiences - they were such an amazing generation. My own parents were lucky - my father had a desk job in intelligence (which he almost never talked about, loyal to the Official Secrets Act), my mother worked for UNRRA for refugees, and talked matter-of-factly as the worst moment being driving through Hammersmith while the buildings on both sides were on fire. Neither experienced any harm at all.

    On a more cheerful note, it's always fun to argue about lists, and here's the happiness list, with FINLAND winning again. Makes sense!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/19/finland-named-worlds-happiest-country-for-fifth-year-running

    Finland, Finland, Finland
    The country where I quite want to be
    Your mountains so lofty
    Your treetops so tall
    Finland, Finland, Finland
    Finland has it all
    Is that you, Bono?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    edited March 2022
    ydoethur said:

    GG has gone full 'For the Motherland, for Stalin!'
    Presumably the shutting down of lucrative RT gigs has sent him tonto.




    'sent him?'
    Yes, quite right, I should have used full tonto.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
    I'm not even sure it is a correct assessment of the law, it would appear by all accounts that the perpetrator had a penis.

    The law does say "his penis" (etc.) but there is plenty of law on the statute book that refers to "he" when it means "a person".
    i think you've slightly missed the point. We're not talking about the law on what rape is or isn't. That's crystal clear. It's the hospital's response that is the issue by conflating 'identifying as a woman' with 'not having a penis.'
    The fact is, surely, that a serious assault has been committed, whether or not it is 'rape' and the victim needs 'justice'.
    Which is conviction and punishment of the offender.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited March 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Six or seven cases..

    Tom Swarbrick
    @TomSwarbrick1
    Been reading the speech by @Baroness_Nichol about the hospital rape case.

    It is absolutely unbelievable.

    Write up here:
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1504761409476993025


    Emma Harriet Nicholson
    @Baroness_Nichol

    I’ve at least six or seven cases

    https://twitter.com/Baroness_Nichol/status/1504884038137491461

    Some awful takes on this from NHS professionals. Shooting the messenger.

    How these people get to work with vulnerable people is a mystery.

    https://www.reduxx.org/post/nhs-mental-health-specialist-deletes-twitter-account-after-gaslighting-rape-victim
    I honestly don't understand what it is going on in these cases. I know the Baroness was making a point about there being a man on the ward, but that seems beside the point.

    Supposedly the ward staff's sole response to the suggestion there had been a rape on the ward was that there were no men on the ward, which seems to indicate a complete lack of any cognitive function whatsoever, investigation, or any instinct to believe or listen to the victim at all.

    I don't think it's particularly helpful to think of the main point being whether the assault or rape was perpetrated by a man or woman given the imbelic nature of the (apparent) response.
    Doesn't make sense given that women (in all senses) can and do commit sexual assaults.
    Because the very precise legal definition of a 'rape' is 'penetration by a penis.'

    So the hospital were dancing on the head of a pin here: 'well, she can't have been raped, no penises to do it.' Therefore implying there was no chance of any sexual assault at all.

    And the reason of course is because as @Cyclefree notes if they admitted there had been there was a major safeguarding breach.

    The issue now is that in addition to letting their patients be raped that hospital trust has committed the crime of perverting the course of justice.

    All in all it is a brutally clear exposition of why self identification without certain very strict safeguards (I.e. call yourself what you like but no accessing female only spaces until transition is complete) is a very bad idea.
    I suspect that, sorry Ms Cyclefree, but there were a couple of 'tough' Sisters on that ward:
    'What, a man on my ward! Nonsense!'
    And no-one argued with them.
    That's an old fashioned take.

    More likely, everyone in the hospital had done their TransFriendly training - therefore self identification trumps all. Anyone accusing a self-identified woman of rape, is "accusing" them of being a man. Since they aren't a man (see training) the complaint is false and transphobic.

    We live in an age where everyone has been trained. Those involved in Rotherham from the official side did thousands of hours on safeguarding, protecting the interests of the child, safety cases etc etc. A number of them had post graduate degrees in child care related areas. Many of them still maintain that they were committed to the highest standards of child care. They probably believe it as well - have they not lined their walls with the finest collection of certificates for all the courses they have done?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    ydoethur said:

    GG has gone full 'For the Motherland, for Stalin!'
    Presumably the shutting down of lucrative RT gigs has sent him tonto.




    'sent him?'
    Unthinking and frankly irrational support for a country that (thank god) has not existed for more than 30 years now. Yes, that sounds like George. He's always had a bit of a thing for "strong men" (ie fascists) too, of course. Contemptible doesn't really cover him or his views.
  • dixiedean said:

    Given all that has happened this month, the remarkable thing is how stable it has been.

    That's because Labour has re-built the 2017 coalition. Those voters are going nowhere.
This discussion has been closed.