Time is running out for those betting on a March CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com

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Time is running out for those betting on a March CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com

One of the most interesting regular bets that we now have each month is on whether either LAB or CON will get a poll lead during a particular month. The current bet is on the Tories and as can be seen the closest they’ve got in any poll is 2%.

Read the full story here

Benpointer

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Fishing

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

You'd almost think it was midterm or something.

dixiedean

Given all that has happened this month, the remarkable thing is how stable it has been.

turbotubbs

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

Sunil_Prasannan

Three months and 12 days since the last Tory poll lead.

ydoethur

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

I don't need any enthusiasm for Starmer. People who are reasonably sane, unlike Rees-Mogg, fairly intelligent, unlike Dorries, Patel or Williamson, and actually follow the fecking law unlike Johnson would be a very refreshing change. That's good enough.

LostPassword

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

IanB2

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

Acceptable under the circumstances?

turbotubbs

ydoethur said:

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

I don't need any enthusiasm for Starmer. People who are reasonably sane, unlike Rees-Mogg, fairly intelligent, unlike Dorries, Patel or Williamson, and actually follow the fecking law unlike Johnson would be a very refreshing change. That's good enough.

Yes, this is very true. But labour still has its own idiots, such as Abbot, Mcdonell etc. But we do need a change.

ydoethur

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

I don't need any enthusiasm for Starmer. People who are reasonably sane, unlike Rees-Mogg, fairly intelligent, unlike Dorries, Patel or Williamson, and actually follow the fecking law unlike Johnson would be a very refreshing change. That's good enough.

Yes, this is very true. But labour still has its own idiots, such as Abbot, Mcdonell etc. But we do need a change.

Abbott, McDonnell, Lavery, Gardiner et al are on the backbenches and there they will stay.

And they are all still, unbelievable though this may seem, not as bad as that lightweight fucktarded bit of fluff Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Leon

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

Benpointer

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I am also surprised the Tories have not had a bigger bounce from the Ukraine war.

My conclusion, however, is that disillusion with this government runs deep.

HYUFD

Labour only 2% ahead with Opinium, so if it happens with any pollster it will likely be them

kle4

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

I've been surprised just how viscerally angry some people I know who are usually totally uncaring of politics and very uninterested in foreign affairs are. Obviously everyone would know about it and virtually all would be against what the Russians are doing, but a relative of mine was practically spitting mad about it just today - scathing and furious at Putin, angry at the West for its weakness, the fury at the invasion has not let up yet.

Gardenwalker

ydoethur said:

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

I don't need any enthusiasm for Starmer. People who are reasonably sane, unlike Rees-Mogg, fairly intelligent, unlike Dorries, Patel or Williamson, and actually follow the fecking law unlike Johnson would be a very refreshing change. That's good enough.

Yes, this is very true. But labour still has its own idiots, such as Abbot, Mcdonell etc. But we do need a change.

Abbott, McDonnell, Lavery, Gardiner et al are on the backbenches and there they will stay.

And they are all still, unbelievable though this may seem, not as bad as that lightweight fucktarded bit of fluff Jacob Rees-Mogg.

I love the word fucktard (or fucktarded), and I commend your efforts to keep it current.

turbotubbs

IanB2 said:

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

Acceptable under the circumstances?

Hell yes. The Torres are reverting to their worst tendencies before our eyes. I think many Tory mos do want to make the country better. They may have a different view of that country to their political opponents, but I don’t think they are all money grabbing, grasping, dishonest, immoral wankers, but it’s easy to see people think they are...
I forgive a lot of what was done in the crisis months of the pandemic, when our friends and allies were seizing PPE we’d bought and paid for, but I think the pandemic just brought the worst out in to the open.
Time to go away and take at look at themselves. It’s not about Brexit. Take it as done, but build the best relationship we can with Europe. They are not our enemies (really, even if it sometimes seems like it). Current events show that.
And yet don’t rule out a leadership change, some sleazy tax cuts and a narrow Tory majority. Depressing, but plausible.

Gardenwalker

Benpointer said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I am also surprised the Tories have not had a bigger bounce from the Ukraine war.

My conclusion, however, is that disillusion with this government runs deep.

Yes.

I mean even on here many of the “usual suspects” still concede that Boris is shit.

HYUFD

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

Indeed it is probably the biggest global crisis in terms of threat since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. 9/11 was bad as you say but terrorists not the leader of a nation with nuclear weapons.

Though hopefully it is resolved soon enough and does not spread beyond Ukraine

Gary_Burton

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

kle4

Makes sense. Even so the counter operation in the West is probably less than the usually manage (though there was that piece about how the lie about biological weapons seems to have taken off among the American right), but Europe and the West was not going to be fertile ground for much support.

When we say Kyiv is winning the information war, far too often we only mean information spaces we inhabit.

Pulling apart the most obvious RU info op to date (as we did using semantic modelling), very clear it is targeting BRICS, Africa, Asia. Not the West really at all

This is the kind of thing this network shares by the way. Mainly an amplification network pumping a small number of viral pro-invasion meme, largely around themes of western hypocrisy, NATO expansionism and BRICS solidarity,

https://twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800

Leon

kle4 said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

I've been surprised just how viscerally angry some people I know who are usually totally uncaring of politics and very uninterested in foreign affairs are. Obviously everyone would know about it and virtually all would be against what the Russians are doing, but a relative of mine was practically spitting mad about it just today - scathing and furious at Putin, angry at the West for its weakness, the fury at the invasion has not let up yet.

Yes, it has gripped the public imagination and roiled public emotions like almost nothing else. 9/11 really is the only comparison. But that was at the same time so different. America was this big powerful place being attacked, there wasn't this sense of helpless, furious PITY

Here we watch a small European nation being mercilessly brutalised by a nuclear-armed gangster. 3 million refugees flee across the borders. We look on, astonished

Gary_Burton

The polls seem to be averaging around a 4-5% Labour lead now (at least this week). One shouldn't overanalyse individual polls due to MoE etc but I was surprised yougov had a 6% lead for Labour as yougov usually has things closer and a lower share for Labour (and higher share from Greens).

HYUFD

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

kle4

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

Really don't understand how any major party, which has sufficient resources to check these things properly, could not check disqualification rules correctly, if that is right.

It's like how parties have enough resources to understand election expenses rules, however complicated, and ensure they provide that to their various agents, yet still end up making so many errors and pleading confusion.

Gary_Burton

HYUFD said:

Labour only 2% ahead with Opinium, so if it happens with any pollster it will likely be them

My prediction was for only a couple of Tory leads to occur between now and May elections so if any Tory leads occur now it might only happen with opinium, yes

edmundintokyo

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

Indeed it is probably the biggest global crisis in terms of threat since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. 9/11 was bad as you say but terrorists not the leader of a nation with nuclear weapons.

Though hopefully it is resolved soon enough and does not spread beyond Ukraine

Yes but no story lasts forever. Even on PB we are mostly talking of other things now. Ukraine is becoming the new normal.

Fuel prices are quite something too. £1.66 for unleaded and £1.74 for diesel around the corner from me. Glad I don't drive a Chelsea tractor.

kle4

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Rules is rules. If they say even 3 years on a proven disqualification someone loses their seat that's tough on them, but them's the breaks. That report suggests the Commons could reprieve him, which I'd imagine they would do if they can - Boris would probably prefer to take a hit than risk losing the seat, even if you are right they'd win it.

If they are correct everyone should thank them - whatever the outcome of any by-election we surely want our election rules to be followed properly.

What interests me is whether he could stand in any by-election having had his election voided - he wouldn't have a disqualification for the reason stated now.

MightyAlex

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

New article idea 'Essex councillor supports election fraud'?

kle4

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

He might have expected a bump from all the praise for his support from Zelensky, currently the most popular politician on earth, but I don't think that's particularly visible the way reporting on practical efforts and refugees is, and historical support provided wouldn't cut much ice with people, fairly or not .

Aslan

Leon said:

kle4 said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

I've been surprised just how viscerally angry some people I know who are usually totally uncaring of politics and very uninterested in foreign affairs are. Obviously everyone would know about it and virtually all would be against what the Russians are doing, but a relative of mine was practically spitting mad about it just today - scathing and furious at Putin, angry at the West for its weakness, the fury at the invasion has not let up yet.

Yes, it has gripped the public imagination and roiled public emotions like almost nothing else. 9/11 really is the only comparison. But that was at the same time so different. America was this big powerful place being attacked, there wasn't this sense of helpless, furious PITY

Here we watch a small European nation being mercilessly brutalised by a nuclear-armed gangster. 3 million refugees flee across the borders. We look on, astonished

Deliberately bombing schools and hospitals. The Russians are evil. I hope they bleed out in Ukraine.

kle4

Leon said:

kle4 said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

I've been surprised just how viscerally angry some people I know who are usually totally uncaring of politics and very uninterested in foreign affairs are. Obviously everyone would know about it and virtually all would be against what the Russians are doing, but a relative of mine was practically spitting mad about it just today - scathing and furious at Putin, angry at the West for its weakness, the fury at the invasion has not let up yet.

Yes, it has gripped the public imagination and roiled public emotions like almost nothing else. 9/11 really is the only comparison. But that was at the same time so different. America was this big powerful place being attacked, there wasn't this sense of helpless, furious PITY

Here we watch a small European nation being mercilessly brutalised by a nuclear-armed gangster. 3 million refugees flee across the borders. We look on, astonished

Well they are not a small nation, albeit small compared to Russia, but otherwise indeed so.

Like many I am not good with geography, and although knowing Ukraine is physically big I did not appreciate how large its population was and suspect many ignorant Britons would be likewise surprised. Not that it is ok, but people might expect Russia to bully Georgia like this, but a nation of 40 million people?

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

Leon

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

This is total fucking bollocks. The British government has done more to help Ukraine than any other in Europe AS THE UKRAINIANS SAY

"Speaking to the PA news agency, [former Ukrainian PM] Grossman had nothing but praise for Boris Johnson, calling the British PM, who has spoken most days to the country’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s number one ally”



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/12/uk-visa-red-tape-distracting-fighters-on-frontline-says-ukraines-former-pm


We have also done more on sanctions than any other European nation: freezing Russian reserves in London, etc. The refugee situation is imperfect but has improved

Should the Tories get a bounce for this? Not really, who cares, there are more important things.

But your take is factually and totally wrong

FrancisUrquhart

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

Yes you are missing a lot.....e.g. the Ukrainians successes in targeting the Russian supply lines are down in a large part to the Ukrainian SoF. The UK (mostly SAS) trained them for the past 7 years and are armed with British equipment. I wouldn't say singlehandedly, but they are literally running around the countryside in small groups making mincemeat of Russian conveys day in, day out.

The Germans in comparison sent some party hats and some Soviet era military equipment from a warehouse in Eastern Germany that had gone mouldy and doesn't work.

The EU also kept selling arms to the Russians even after a supposed ban.

In terms of sanctions, the most hard hitting ones aren't the ones the media bang on about. There are a lot of things that the UK / US have done that really hit Russian and Russian businesses, much more than seizing a boat or a house. Grabbing a yacht looks good, but it is a bit like when the stop a drugs shipment and show all the bags of coke, you haven't actually got the real source.

The slowness of Refugees is legitimate criticism. Poland is taking the massive weight on dealing with that for everybody else at the moment.

SandyRentool

"Bradford, County Durham, Southampton and Wrexham have made the shortlist to be named UK City of Culture for 2025."

Plenty of culture in Bradford alright.

Night all.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

If there is one. Leaving aside whether the story is accurate, which it may not be, time limits, which are problematic, and the labyrinthine technicalities, it seems unlikely any case could come to court before the next election given the current backlog, by which time it would be moot. And it's not as though the Tories have any motive to expedite it (quite the contrary).

kle4

I see from Wikipedia that the ousting of Yanukovych is part of what is known as the Revolution of Dignity. I can see why that would upset people, I cannot imagine he likes others to have what he lacks.

NickPalmer

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

The writer seems to be more Green than Labour though now formally unaffiliated. It's obviously a scoop for the paper, and I'd have thought a rival party would normally have raised it ages ago. Were all the parties asleep?

HYUFD

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

Ipswich was 58% Leave, it is a market town in Suffolk not London or another city or suburb or the Home Counties. Not exactly classic Starmer territory.

Hunt also seems to be a good constituency MP

GarethoftheVale2

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

Ipswich is interesting as it has been gradually moving to the Cons demographically but at the last election it was exactly in line with the nation in terms of Cons vs Lab (Con 11 points ahead of Lab)

LostPassword

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

But pretty much everything you write was exactly the same for the first phase of the pandemic, when the government had a huge boost in the polls. It wasn't because everyone was interested in domestic politics - quite the opposite.

So why is the boost not there now?

kle4

It'll be fascinating (assuming as positive an outcome as can be hoped for) after things quiet down to know more about the Ukrainian military command, which even accounting for a propaganda effort does appear to have been doing a bang up job. Zelensky is playing his role excellently, I don't think anyone acting as their nation's chief diplomat and rallying focus could have done more, but the military structures which must be under so much pressure appear to have held up very well.

rottenborough

Maybe maths PB can help me. I just don't get the continuing high levels of covid from ONS.

1 in 20 people had it last week when ONS did sample. If you are detectable for say two weeks then 1 in 40 each week are newly infected. Wildly rough numbers I know. But...

That means by my shaky maths that after around 40 weeks EVERYONE will have had it. Every last man, child, mother, sister, brother etc etc. No one has escaped.

We are two years into this.

Surely a lot of stuff now is reinfections?

dixiedean

Don't underestimate the effect of "special forces" in balaclavas wielding tasers and handcuffs on folk who have simply gone to work.
It is visceral.
The Brexit vote wasn't for this.

rcs1000

The NYTimes has a great story about the success of the Anglo-Swedish NLAWS: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/us/ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia.html

(And about the generosity of the British government. It's nice to have the NYTimes not bang on about Britain as if it was already a post apocalyptic graveyard.)

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

The NYTimes has a great story about the success of the Anglo-Swedish NLAWS: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/us/ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia.html

(And about the generosity of the British government. It's nice to have the NYTimes not bang on about Britain as if it was already a post apocalyptic graveyard.)

The usual editors must have taken the week off for St Paddys or something....

Foxy

SandyRentool said:

"Bradford, County Durham, Southampton and Wrexham have made the shortlist to be named UK City of Culture for 2025."

Plenty of culture in Bradford alright.

Night all.

Getting a long way down the list though!
Southampton? Wrexham? a county?

It's all got a bit meaningless now, like the 38th season of Neighbours.

TimT

rottenborough said:

Maybe maths PB can help me. I just don't get the continuing high levels of covid from ONS.

1 in 20 people had it last week when ONS did sample. If you are detectable for say two weeks then 1 in 40 each week are newly infected. Wildly rough numbers I know. But...

That means by my shaky maths that after around 40 weeks EVERYONE will have had it. Every last man, child, mother, sister, brother etc etc. No one has escaped.

We are two years into this.

Surely a lot of stuff now is reinfections?

1. It has not been this infectious for the entire 2 years. In fact, the ultra-infectiousness is omicron onwards, i.e. since December
2. Yes, there will be a lot of re-infections going on.

HYUFD

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

Ipswich is interesting as it has been gradually moving to the Cons demographically but at the last election it was exactly in line with the nation in terms of Cons vs Lab (Con 11 points ahead of Lab)

The Tories actually gained 6 seats from Labour in the local elections in Ipswich last year. It did not exactly give Starmer a warm welcome in his first elections as leader there

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ipswich_Borough_Council_election

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

It'll be fascinating (assuming as positive an outcome as can be hoped for) after things quiet down to know more about the Ukrainian military command, which even accounting for a propaganda effort does appear to have been doing a bang up job. Zelensky is playing his role excellently, I don't think anyone acting as their nation's chief diplomat and rallying focus could have done more, but the military structures which must be under so much pressure appear to have held up very well.

It seems like they had a very clear plan of action. Its pretty clear that they have had lots of intel from the US/UK for a long time now, but you still need to formulate a plan e.g The SoF from the get-go haven't fought a traditional war, they all formed small splinter cells and are chasing around the countryside seemingly well aware of what they need to do to slow the Russian military machine and so far done an incredible job in that respect.

Leon

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

But pretty much everything you write was exactly the same for the first phase of the pandemic, when the government had a huge boost in the polls. It wasn't because everyone was interested in domestic politics - quite the opposite.

So why is the boost not there now?

No, this is very different in multiple ways. Then we were bewildered and numb, now we are angry and shocked. The only similar thing is the fear.

The government got a bounce then because there was a sense of national solidarity. We were thinking about ourselves and our response and our beloved NHS. Now it is all about THEM: the Ukrainians and the Russians. Britain is a spectator, for the moment

kle4

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

But pretty much everything you write was exactly the same for the first phase of the pandemic, when the government had a huge boost in the polls. It wasn't because everyone was interested in domestic politics - quite the opposite.

So why is the boost not there now?

However much the UK has done and how much is attributable to Boris - the Ukrainian leadership are certainly fans - the actual headlines from Ukraine itself are still varying degrees of awful (even the goodnews is about reducing that awfulness) and until a tide decisively turns I'm not sure it will affect anything domestically, as there is the not same level of direct connection as there was with Covid in terms of actions of the government affecting us/the situation so visibly.

Plus there is the factor that has been noted in that whilst some have said now is not the time to undermine Boris, plenty of us regard the current crisis as something he should still not be leading on.

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

But pretty much everything you write was exactly the same for the first phase of the pandemic, when the government had a huge boost in the polls. It wasn't because everyone was interested in domestic politics - quite the opposite.

So why is the boost not there now?

The government got a bounce then because there was a sense of national solidarity. We were thinking about ourselves and our response and our beloved NHS. Now it is all about THEM: the Ukrainians and the Russians. Britain is a spectator, for the moment

LostPassword

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

I don't think the government's response in the first phase of the pandemic was that great. Johnson boasted about shaking hands with everyone. We couldn't do enough tests, or source enough PPE - but the visceral fear created a rallying around the government regardless, because it was at least saying the right things.

This situation feels to me as though it should be the same. The government is saying all the right things. It can even point to a few things that it has done well - such as the training and equipment provided to Ukraine's army. There is an unprecedented threat to our security and safety - but the rally around the flag is not happening.

So I think I must be unusual in feeling this degree of fear and threat.

rottenborough

Ukraine is wrecking Russian tanks with a gift from Britain.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/ukraine-russia-war#ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia

Gary_Burton

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

Ipswich was 58% Leave, it is a market town in Suffolk not London or another city or suburb or the Home Counties. Not exactly classic Starmer territory.

Hunt also seems to be a good constituency MP

Should really be a Labour gain in a by election especially considering that it was narrowly Labour in 1983, 1992 and 2017 even if it votes Tory again at the next GE. I was surprised to find out just now on wikipedia that the Tory vote in Ipswich in 2019 was the highest Tory vote since 1935 in Ipswich though.

Foxy

rottenborough said:

Maybe maths PB can help me. I just don't get the continuing high levels of covid from ONS.

1 in 20 people had it last week when ONS did sample. If you are detectable for say two weeks then 1 in 40 each week are newly infected. Wildly rough numbers I know. But...

That means by my shaky maths that after around 40 weeks EVERYONE will have had it. Every last man, child, mother, sister, brother etc etc. No one has escaped.

We are two years into this.

Surely a lot of stuff now is reinfections?

Yes, estimates for Omicron and BA.2 are that 20% or more of cases are reinfections. With much lower testing rates it is hard to be sure.

Leon

rottenborough said:

Maybe maths PB can help me. I just don't get the continuing high levels of covid from ONS.

1 in 20 people had it last week when ONS did sample. If you are detectable for say two weeks then 1 in 40 each week are newly infected. Wildly rough numbers I know. But...

That means by my shaky maths that after around 40 weeks EVERYONE will have had it. Every last man, child, mother, sister, brother etc etc. No one has escaped.

We are two years into this.

Surely a lot of stuff now is reinfections?

You can catch the super-infectious Omicron BA2 even if you've recently had Omicron BA1. So, yes, there will be a ton of reinfections

HYUFD

Gary_Burton said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

Ipswich was 58% Leave, it is a market town in Suffolk not London or another city or suburb or the Home Counties. Not exactly classic Starmer territory.

Hunt also seems to be a good constituency MP

Should really be a Labour gain in a by election especially considering that it was narrowly Labour in 1983, 1992 and 2017 even if it votes Tory again at the next GE. I was surprised to find out just now on wikipedia that the Tory vote in Ipswich in 2019 was the highest Tory vote since 1935 in Ipswich though.

Indeed, Ipswich likes Boris.

It is demographically more of a southern redwall seat than a classic Home Counties seat and has a below average percentage of graduates.

I would fancy a narrow Tory hold

dixiedean

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

IshmaelZ

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

Disagree. Everyone I know is troubled and transfixed by this war unlike any other foreign policy development since 9/11; in some ways it is worse even that that because of the nuclear threat, which is sending people doo-lally

I attribute the stasis in the polls to no one giving a fuck about domestic politics, as this drama unfolds. It all feels so trivial. It is therefore pretty much impossible to predict what happens next (in Westminster as much as in Kyiv), this is uncharted territory

But pretty much everything you write was exactly the same for the first phase of the pandemic, when the government had a huge boost in the polls. It wasn't because everyone was interested in domestic politics - quite the opposite.

So why is the boost not there now?

Because Boris has been exposed as a fat lying crook. Partygate may be in abeyance, but it hasn't been reversed or nullified.

IshmaelZ

dixiedean said:

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

Surely illegal to pay that?

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

It has nothing to do with Brexit, the same employment law applies to this case as was the case before we left the EU.

Grant Shapps has already condemned P & O

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1504797915709165572?s=20&t=Uv1Jkrh4ntCf1hKSKPVuYQ

TimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

It'll be fascinating (assuming as positive an outcome as can be hoped for) after things quiet down to know more about the Ukrainian military command, which even accounting for a propaganda effort does appear to have been doing a bang up job. Zelensky is playing his role excellently, I don't think anyone acting as their nation's chief diplomat and rallying focus could have done more, but the military structures which must be under so much pressure appear to have held up very well.

It seems like they had a very clear plan of action. Its pretty clear that they have had lots of intel from the US/UK for a long time now, but you still need to formulate a plan e.g The SoF from the get-go haven't fought a traditional war, they all formed small splinter cells and are chasing around the countryside seemingly well aware of what they need to do to slow the Russian military machine and so far done an incredible job in that respect.

While there is undoubtedly good news from the Ukrainian perspective, I have this nagging worry that the defenses in Luhansk and Donetsk are nearing their breaking point and may well do so in the next few days if the Russians complete their slaughter in Mariupol and free up those forces to push north and encircle the defenders.

dixiedean

IshmaelZ said:

dixiedean said:

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

Surely illegal to pay that?

You would have thought so.
But, then again. Private masked security wielding handcuffs.and tasers accusing folk of trespass when they have simply showed up for work may also have been considered that.

FrancisUrquhart

IshmaelZ said:

dixiedean said:

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

Surely illegal to pay that?

I presume because boats normally operate under the employment regulations of whatever Flag State the boat is registered. Its why so many people working ships around the world are from places like the Philippines, with boats registered in places like Panama.

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

It has nothing to do with Brexit, the same employment law applies to this case as was the case before we left the EU.

Grant Shapps has already condemned P & O

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1504797915709165572?s=20&t=Uv1Jkrh4ntCf1hKSKPVuYQ

So that's all right then?

rottenborough

TimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

It'll be fascinating (assuming as positive an outcome as can be hoped for) after things quiet down to know more about the Ukrainian military command, which even accounting for a propaganda effort does appear to have been doing a bang up job. Zelensky is playing his role excellently, I don't think anyone acting as their nation's chief diplomat and rallying focus could have done more, but the military structures which must be under so much pressure appear to have held up very well.

It seems like they had a very clear plan of action. Its pretty clear that they have had lots of intel from the US/UK for a long time now, but you still need to formulate a plan e.g The SoF from the get-go haven't fought a traditional war, they all formed small splinter cells and are chasing around the countryside seemingly well aware of what they need to do to slow the Russian military machine and so far done an incredible job in that respect.

While there is undoubtedly good news from the Ukrainian perspective, I have this nagging worry that the defenses in Luhansk and Donetsk are nearing their breaking point and may well do so in the next few days if the Russians complete their slaughter in Mariupol and free up those forces to push north and encircle the defenders.

Push back near Kherson:


Ukraine War Map
@War_Mapper
Map of the approximate situation in Ukraine as of 23:00 UTC 18/03/22.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1504955844802359299

JosephG

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

If there is one. Leaving aside whether the story is accurate, which it may not be, time limits, which are problematic, and the labyrinthine technicalities, it seems unlikely any case could come to court before the next election given the current backlog, by which time it would be moot. And it's not as though the Tories have any motive to expedite it (quite the contrary).

I think "labarythine techicalities" is putting it a little high.

Section 6(1)(a) of the House of Commons Disqualification Act 1975 renders the election void. High Court proceedings would be necessary only if a question of fact arose following an application to the Privy Council for a declaration as to disqualification. In this case, there would be no arguable question of fact: he either held an office listed in the schedule to the 1975 Act or he did not. (See section 7.)

In any event, though, section 6(2) provides that in the case of any actual or alleged disqualification, if it appears to the House of Commons that the grounds for disqualification subsisting at the relevant time (i.e. the date of the election) no longer subsist, and that it is otherwise proper to do so, the House may by order direct that such grounds be ignored for the purposes of section 6(1).

Therefore, all that the MP needs to do is make sure he no longer holds the office in question - quickly resigning it if need be - and then the Leader of the House tables a resolution to make an order under section 6(2), and the Government Whips would ensure that Conservative Members were whipped to support the resolution. Hey presto, problem solved and no grounds for disqualification any longer exist.

ydoethur

IshmaelZ said:

dixiedean said:

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

Surely illegal to pay that?

It starts to look to me as though P+O are actually trying to get the courts to shut them down.

Possibly the real story here is they are looking to dodge their creditors?

Can't fathom the logic otherwise.

edmundintokyo

LostPassword said:

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

I don't think the government's response in the first phase of the pandemic was that great. Johnson boasted about shaking hands with everyone. We couldn't do enough tests, or source enough PPE - but the visceral fear created a rallying around the government regardless, because it was at least saying the right things.

This situation feels to me as though it should be the same. The government is saying all the right things. It can even point to a few things that it has done well - such as the training and equipment provided to Ukraine's army. There is an unprecedented threat to our security and safety - but the rally around the flag is not happening.

So I think I must be unusual in feeling this degree of fear and threat.

The UK response at the start of the pandemic was atrocious, but I don't think this was as obvious to British people because other European countries were also pretty bad, and objectively were in far worse situations, which they were seeing on the telly. So I don't think it looked like to British people like the raging incompetence it appeared to be from East Asia.

Compare that to accepting refugees, people know that it's possible to let people with Ukrainian passports into your country and the rest of the continent is visibly managing it, but the British aren't, and what they are doing is in little begrudging steps that make the government appear shifty and indecisive.

dixiedean

I don't give a fuck about Brexit. Or flags of convenience.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.

kle4

JosephG said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

If there is one. Leaving aside whether the story is accurate, which it may not be, time limits, which are problematic, and the labyrinthine technicalities, it seems unlikely any case could come to court before the next election given the current backlog, by which time it would be moot. And it's not as though the Tories have any motive to expedite it (quite the contrary).

I think "labarythine techicalities" is putting it a little high.

Section 6(1)(a) of the House of Commons Disqualification Act 1975 renders the election void. High Court proceedings would be necessary only if a question of fact arose following an application to the Privy Council for a declaration as to disqualification. In this case, there would be no arguable question of fact: he either held an office listed in the schedule to the 1975 Act or he did not. (See section 7.)

In any event, though, section 6(2) provides that in the case of any actual or alleged disqualification, if it appears to the House of Commons that the grounds for disqualification subsisting at the relevant time (i.e. the date of the election) no longer subsist, and that it is otherwise proper to do so, the House may by order direct that such grounds be ignored for the purposes of section 6(1).

Therefore, all that the MP needs to do is make sure he no longer holds the office in question - quickly resigning it if need be - and then the Leader of the House tables a resolution to make an order under section 6(2), and the Government Whips would ensure that Conservative Members were whipped to support the resolution. Hey presto, problem solved and no grounds for disqualification any longer exist.

If so would get a lot of bad press, but the provision doesn't appear on the face of it to be completely unreasonable and exists for a reason, and utilisation of a legal power is not itself unfair. Still bloody incompetent though.

ydoethur

JosephG said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

If there is one. Leaving aside whether the story is accurate, which it may not be, time limits, which are problematic, and the labyrinthine technicalities, it seems unlikely any case could come to court before the next election given the current backlog, by which time it would be moot. And it's not as though the Tories have any motive to expedite it (quite the contrary).

I think "labarythine techicalities" is putting it a little high.

Section 6(1)(a) of the House of Commons Disqualification Act 1975 renders the election void. High Court proceedings would be necessary only if a question of fact arose following an application to the Privy Council for a declaration as to disqualification. In this case, there would be no arguable question of fact: he either held an office listed in the schedule to the 1975 Act or he did not. (See section 7.)

In any event, though, section 6(2) provides that in the case of any actual or alleged disqualification, if it appears to the House of Commons that the grounds for disqualification subsisting at the relevant time (i.e. the date of the election) no longer subsist, and that it is otherwise proper to do so, the House may by order direct that such grounds be ignored for the purposes of section 6(1).

Therefore, all that the MP needs to do is make sure he no longer holds the office in question - quickly resigning it if need be - and then the Leader of the House tables a resolution to make an order under section 6(2), and the Government Whips would ensure that Conservative Members were whipped to support the resolution. Hey presto, problem solved and no grounds for disqualification any longer exist.

That seems fairly labyrinthine to me, but then, I'm a doctor, not a lawyer.*

Moreover, one who has had two large whiskies so may not be following all you've said.

*yes, I know I'm being a bit cheeky there.

Andy_JS

Off topic

Apparently most people in Scotland refer to orange squash as "diluting juice". From a YouGov survey.

kinabalu

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

Yep. And "oh god imagine if we had Corbyn" doesn't improve matters. The opposite really. He'd likely have done better on both those things.

FrancisUrquhart

dixiedean said:

I don't give a fuck about Brexit.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.

Its already the law,

https://www.ukshipregister.co.uk/seafarer/working-conditions/

But the point is shipping doesn't necessarily work like that. The rules and regulations are based upon where the ship is registered and I am going to guess that the agency they use to hire is also not UK registered.

Sunil_Prasannan

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

First - like Labour for the foreseeable.

We can but hope. And that's said without any starry eyed admiration for Labour.

Country needs a change, but I don’t have any enthusiasm for starmers mob yet.

JosephG

kle4 said:

JosephG said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gary_Burton said:

Another potential by election in Ipswich:

https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/exclusive-suffolk-mp-faces-losing-seat-in-invalid-nomination-shock/

A bit ridiculous for Labour to raise this now, 3 years after he was elected. He is a good local MP. Indeed on the swing in Birmingham Erdington Hunt would hold Ipswich even if there was a by election

Yes, but Ipswich is the sort of Southern seat that might go for Starmerism. Could be a tasty by-election.

If there is one. Leaving aside whether the story is accurate, which it may not be, time limits, which are problematic, and the labyrinthine technicalities, it seems unlikely any case could come to court before the next election given the current backlog, by which time it would be moot. And it's not as though the Tories have any motive to expedite it (quite the contrary).

I think "labarythine techicalities" is putting it a little high.

Section 6(1)(a) of the House of Commons Disqualification Act 1975 renders the election void. High Court proceedings would be necessary only if a question of fact arose following an application to the Privy Council for a declaration as to disqualification. In this case, there would be no arguable question of fact: he either held an office listed in the schedule to the 1975 Act or he did not. (See section 7.)

In any event, though, section 6(2) provides that in the case of any actual or alleged disqualification, if it appears to the House of Commons that the grounds for disqualification subsisting at the relevant time (i.e. the date of the election) no longer subsist, and that it is otherwise proper to do so, the House may by order direct that such grounds be ignored for the purposes of section 6(1).

Therefore, all that the MP needs to do is make sure he no longer holds the office in question - quickly resigning it if need be - and then the Leader of the House tables a resolution to make an order under section 6(2), and the Government Whips would ensure that Conservative Members were whipped to support the resolution. Hey presto, problem solved and no grounds for disqualification any longer exist.

If so would get a lot of bad press, but the provision doesn't appear on the face of it to be completely unreasonable and exists for a reason, and utilisation of a legal power is not itself unfair. Still bloody incompetent though.

Mind boggingly incompetent, I agree - and highly embarassing for the Government to push through; but shame and embarassment haven't stopped them in the past.

LostPassword

dixiedean said:

IshmaelZ said:

dixiedean said:

Mirror reporting agency staff on P+O on £2.60 per hour.
Was Brexit for this?
Is this what we want for the UK?
Not me.

Surely illegal to pay that?

You would have thought so.
But, then again. Private masked security wielding handcuffs.and tasers accusing folk of trespass when they have simply showed up for work may also have been considered that.

Since when was that not assault and unlawful imprisonment?

It's absurd that Ministers of the Crown are shedding crocodile tears over this outrage when they're in charge of the fucking government and could do something about it.

One thing the Russian invasion of Ukraine has encouraged in me is a sense that there's no point in fiddling around with half-measures and excuses. How is it that we've watched what China has done in Hong Kong and we aren't taking seriously the challenge of reducing our dependence on China?

Why is it that we've had decades of tough on crime commentators advocate being tough on minor property crimes, following the example of New York, but so many fewer of them are talking about being tough on indecent exposure and domestic violence which we know are gateway crimes to more serious assaults?

I think what it is that links them all together is impunity, something Cyclefree has written about often for us here. Putin can literally invade neighbouring countries with impunity. Sexual offences are committed largely with impunity. The Metropolitan Police act with impunity. Boris Johnson acts with impunity. Companies can take any and every liberty with impunity.

How long are people going to put up with this shit?

FrancisUrquhart

kinabalu said:

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

Yep. And "oh god imagine if we had Corbyn" doesn't improve matters. The opposite really. He'd likely have done better on both those things.

Jezza most certainly wouldn't have been sending weapons to Ukraine and allowing the SAS to train them.....and his reaction to Salisbury poisoning was laughable, we need to send the samples to the nice Mr Putin, so they can investigate and we should be sitting down with him to have a chat about all of this.

He also would never have sanctioned the UK sending billions on big Pharma contracts like Moderna or Pfizer.

dixiedean

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

I don't give a fuck about Brexit.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.

Its already the law,

https://www.ukshipregister.co.uk/seafarer/working-conditions/

But the point is shipping doesn't necessarily work like that. The rules and regulations are based upon where the ship is registered.

That's all very well.
But it's bollocks. Make me a Marxist. Go on.

kle4

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

I don't give a fuck about Brexit.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.

Its already the law,

https://www.ukshipregister.co.uk/seafarer/working-conditions/

But the point is shipping doesn't necessarily work like that. The rules and regulations are based upon where the ship is registered.

That's all very well.
But it's bollocks. Make me a Marxist. Go on.

I'll defer to experts on this, but I'm going to guess plenty of marxist regimes have not treated workers very well either. But it is terrible it can be so easy to get around basic rules.

Leon

kinabalu said:

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

Yep. And "oh god imagine if we had Corbyn" doesn't improve matters. The opposite really. He'd likely have done better on both those things.

If Britain has "failed to rise to the occasion" "unlike every other European country", as you two pitiful fucktards profess to believe, perhaps you could explain why, when Ukrainians - Ukrainians - are polled, Britain is the most favourably viewed foreign country and Boris Johnson is the most favourably viewed foreign leader?


"US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders:"


"EU +42.2
Nato -16.8
UK +56
Biden +25.8
Johnson +49.6
Zelensky +79
Putin -86.7"


https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1501571883573075972?s=20&t=SOTvqK5UG-xhEbtrCflO-A

FrancisUrquhart

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

I don't give a fuck about Brexit.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.

Its already the law,

https://www.ukshipregister.co.uk/seafarer/working-conditions/

But the point is shipping doesn't necessarily work like that. The rules and regulations are based upon where the ship is registered.

That's all very well.
But it's bollocks. Make me a Marxist. Go on.

I am not sure what you propose. It would require totally new international regulations on maritime industry, which would in turn result in all the massive cargo ships from China etc costing a lot more, meaning all the goods in the West cost more, etc etc etc i.e. the international community have no interest in doing so.

The life of a lot of the Filipinos on these ships is pretty terrible. Poor pay and many many months at sea without a break or chance to go home and see their family.

edmundintokyo

FrancisUrquhart said:

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

Yes you are missing a lot.....e.g. the Ukrainians successes in targeting the Russian supply lines are down in a large part to the Ukrainian SoF. The UK (mostly SAS) trained them for the past 7 years and are armed with British equipment. I wouldn't say singlehandedly, but they are literally running around the countryside in small groups making mincemeat of Russian conveys day in, day out.

The Germans in comparison sent some party hats and some Soviet era military equipment from a warehouse in Eastern Germany that had gone mouldy and doesn't work.

The EU also kept selling arms to the Russians even after a supposed ban.

In terms of sanctions, the most hard hitting ones aren't the ones the media bang on about. There are a lot of things that the UK / US have done that really hit Russian and Russian businesses, much more than seizing a boat or a house. Grabbing a yacht looks good, but it is a bit like when the stop a drugs shipment and show all the bags of coke, you haven't actually got the real source.

The slowness of Refugees is legitimate criticism. Poland is taking the massive weight on dealing with that for everybody else at the moment.

I don't think "here's what we've been doing to help this country for the last 7 years" is the kind of thing that creates a bounce in a crisis. You need the appearance of *decisiveness*.

It take your point that there may be a lot of important sanctions stuff going on that we can't see, but again, that's not what creates a rally-around-the-leader effect. The voters can't be impressed by something that they don't know about.

Luckyguy1983

rcs1000 said:

The NYTimes has a great story about the success of the Anglo-Swedish NLAWS: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/us/ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia.html

(And about the generosity of the British government. It's nice to have the NYTimes not bang on about Britain as if it was already a post apocalyptic graveyard.)

Why's it nice? Who gives a flying fuck what they think?

rottenborough

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said it was "remarkable" that a Chinese summary of the [Biden] call was published before the two leaders had even finished speaking.



Telegrph

dixiedean

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

I don't give a fuck about Brexit.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.

Its already the law,

https://www.ukshipregister.co.uk/seafarer/working-conditions/

But the point is shipping doesn't necessarily work like that. The rules and regulations are based upon where the ship is registered.

That's all very well.
But it's bollocks. Make me a Marxist. Go on.

I am not sure what you propose. It would require totally new international regulations on maritime industry, which would in turn result in all the massive cargo ships from China etc costing a lot more, meaning all the goods in the West cost more, etc etc etc i.e. the international community have no interest in doing so.

The life of a lot of the Filipinos on these ships is pretty terrible. Poor pay and many many months at sea without a break or chance to go home and see their family.

So. It's fine then?

FrancisUrquhart

edmundintokyo said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

edmundintokyo said:

LostPassword said:

I am genuinely surprised that the bounce for the government, in response to the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wasn't larger. It doesn't seem to be any greater than what you would expect simply from the negative partygate stories about the government disappearing from the news.

I would guess that this means the British public as a whole do not feel viscerally threatened by war in Ukraine, which has implications for their willingness to make sacrifices to fund increased defence expenditure.

I may be missing some context not being there but I'm not sure who's supposed to be impressed by the British government's response. They had *one job* which was to apply sanctions to Russian assets in London and they seem to be totally failing? Then there's letting in refugees, which also simultaneously mean and incompetent. Most other western governments seem to be rising to the occasion, and the British aren't.

You can definitely get a rally-around-the-leader effect when there's a crisis but it does require at least a bare minimum of leadership.

Yes you are missing a lot.....e.g. the Ukrainians successes in targeting the Russian supply lines are down in a large part to the Ukrainian SoF. The UK (mostly SAS) trained them for the past 7 years and are armed with British equipment. I wouldn't say singlehandedly, but they are literally running around the countryside in small groups making mincemeat of Russian conveys day in, day out.

The Germans in comparison sent some party hats and some Soviet era military equipment from a warehouse in Eastern Germany that had gone mouldy and doesn't work.

The EU also kept selling arms to the Russians even after a supposed ban.

In terms of sanctions, the most hard hitting ones aren't the ones the media bang on about. There are a lot of things that the UK / US have done that really hit Russian and Russian businesses, much more than seizing a boat or a house. Grabbing a yacht looks good, but it is a bit like when the stop a drugs shipment and show all the bags of coke, you haven't actually got the real source.

The slowness of Refugees is legitimate criticism. Poland is taking the massive weight on dealing with that for everybody else at the moment.

I don't think "here's what we've been doing to help this country for the last 7 years" is the kind of thing that creates a bounce in a crisis. You need the appearance of *decisiveness*.

It take your point that there may be a lot of important sanctions stuff going on that we can't see, but again, that's not what creates a rally-around-the-leader effect. The voters can't be impressed by something that they don't know about.

I think its been reasonably well advertised here that a lot of the Ukrainian kit is thanks to the British, and widely reported that the president phones Boris nearly daily, thanking him for the supplies (and asking for a no fly zone). The UK ramped these supplies up in January, when nobody else in Europe was sending weapons.

By Boris standards, that's pretty decisive. As for the sanctions, the EU might have done things like seize a yacht 3 days before the UK, but the UK had to come up with a legal fudge, as they lost a very expensive court case a few years ago when they just decided to seize assets.

The refugee scheme is the thing that the government have been very slow to sort out.

Chameleon

The latest reports from Mariupol are truly devastating. It's not particularly easy to reconcile my desire to see every Russian senior politician and Military/Intelligence officer of Colonel and above to see the rope at the Hague with the likely deeply unsatisfying reality that will occur.

Tonight I'll drink to yet another Russian General bastard finished off, the most senior yet.

FrancisUrquhart

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dixiedean said:

I don't give a fuck about Brexit.
Folk doing a job in the UK should.be paid the minimum wage at least.
End of.

Its already the law,

https://www.ukshipregister.co.uk/seafarer/working-conditions/

But the point is shipping doesn't necessarily work like that. The rules and regulations are based upon where the ship is registered.

That's all very well.
But it's bollocks. Make me a Marxist. Go on.

I am not sure what you propose. It would require totally new international regulations on maritime industry, which would in turn result in all the massive cargo ships from China etc costing a lot more, meaning all the goods in the West cost more, etc etc etc i.e. the international community have no interest in doing so.

The life of a lot of the Filipinos on these ships is pretty terrible. Poor pay and many many months at sea without a break or chance to go home and see their family.

So. It's fine then?

Its absolute scumbaggery by the company, but you came on ranting about Brexit and the UK minimum wage, when its really nothing to do with either.

In fact, one of the big reasons for Brexit vote is exactly this type of thing has been going on for years. Jobs shipped to Eastern Europe or further afield because of lower wages, hollowing out industries in places like Stoke e.g. all the pottery companies are a shadow of their former selves with all but very high end bespoke stuff made abroad.

Of course the thought Brexit magically fixes that is misguided. Its globalisation.

rcs1000

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

The NYTimes has a great story about the success of the Anglo-Swedish NLAWS: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/us/ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia.html

(And about the generosity of the British government. It's nice to have the NYTimes not bang on about Britain as if it was already a post apocalyptic graveyard.)

Why's it nice? Who gives a flying fuck what they think?

As a general rule, I like major news organisations to be relatively impartial, but I accept that YMMV.

Leon

Re the refugee situation, there is early anecdotal evidence that the Ukrainians simply don't want to come here

Set Britain aside for a while. The EU is completely open, 3m refugees have flooded out, yet only 17,000 are in France, and about 12,000 in Spain

They are staying in the East where they can be near friends and family, still in Ukraine, and whence they hope to go home soon, if and when the war ends. This makes sense, these are not people who want to leave Ukraine, they have been displaced by war. They want to go back

150,000 places for refugees have been offered in UK homes. I seriously doubt if we will get 150,000 Ukrainians to fill them

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

Re the refugee situation, there is early anecdotal evidence that the Ukrainians simply don't want to come here

Set Britain aside for a while. The EU is completely open, 3m refugees have flooded out, yet only 17,000 are in France, and about 12,000 in Spain

They are staying in the East where they can be near friends and family, still in Ukraine, and whence they hope to go home soon, if and when the war ends. This makes sense, these are not people who want to leave Ukraine, they have been displaced by war. They want to go back

150,000 places for refugees have been offered in UK homes. I seriously doubt if we will get 150,000 Ukrainians to fill them

Konstantin Kisin made this point last week. Firstly, their husbands, brothers, fathers, etc are fighting for their land and they don't want to be the other side of Europe away from them, and also Slavic nations are much closer to what is home, the language, the culture, etc.

However, that means Poland are going to need vast amounts of help.

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Re the refugee situation, there is early anecdotal evidence that the Ukrainians simply don't want to come here

Set Britain aside for a while. The EU is completely open, 3m refugees have flooded out, yet only 17,000 are in France, and about 12,000 in Spain

They are staying in the East where they can be near friends and family, still in Ukraine, and whence they hope to go home soon, if and when the war ends. This makes sense, these are not people who want to leave Ukraine, they have been displaced by war. They want to go back

150,000 places for refugees have been offered in UK homes. I seriously doubt if we will get 150,000 Ukrainians to fill them

Konstantin Kisin made this point last week.

There is, also, no large Ukrainian community in the UK, ready to welcome and assist them

Italy has a Ukrainian population of 230,000
Germany has 250,000
France has 220,000
Spain has 110,000
Poland has over 1 million (pre war)
The UK? It has 20-30,000. It's tiny


A pre-existent community is always a major pull for foreign migrants. That simply does not exist in the UK. All this histrionic moral bleating about the UK not welcoming Ukrainians may be entirely misplaced, as things stands. They don't want to come

Luckyguy1983

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

The NYTimes has a great story about the success of the Anglo-Swedish NLAWS: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/us/ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia.html

(And about the generosity of the British government. It's nice to have the NYTimes not bang on about Britain as if it was already a post apocalyptic graveyard.)

Why's it nice? Who gives a flying fuck what they think?

As a general rule, I like major news organisations to be relatively impartial, but I accept that YMMV.

It would be nice, but it seems highly improbable. I'm not really even sure that such a concept truly exists. I'm being quite stroppy tonight. Long day.

kle4

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

The NYTimes has a great story about the success of the Anglo-Swedish NLAWS: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/us/ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia.html

(And about the generosity of the British government. It's nice to have the NYTimes not bang on about Britain as if it was already a post apocalyptic graveyard.)

Why's it nice? Who gives a flying fuck what they think?

As a general rule, I like major news organisations to be relatively impartial, but I accept that YMMV.

I prefer mine partial, but at least making an effort to seem impartial. That way I don't feel like so much of a stooge for agreeing with it.

rcs1000

Leon said:

Re the refugee situation, there is early anecdotal evidence that the Ukrainians simply don't want to come here

Set Britain aside for a while. The EU is completely open, 3m refugees have flooded out, yet only 17,000 are in France, and about 12,000 in Spain

They are staying in the East where they can be near friends and family, still in Ukraine, and whence they hope to go home soon, if and when the war ends. This makes sense, these are not people who want to leave Ukraine, they have been displaced by war. They want to go back

150,000 places for refugees have been offered in UK homes. I seriously doubt if we will get 150,000 Ukrainians to fill them

I have a Ukrainian work connection, and she is with her family in Warsaw, because she wants to go back to Kyiv and to rebuild her life after the war.