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TACTICAL VOTING AT THE 1997 GENERAL ELECTION – politicalbetting.com
TACTICAL VOTING AT THE 1997 GENERAL ELECTION – politicalbetting.com
I recently looked at Labour/Lib Dem tactical voting since 1983 and noted that the analysis didn’t work quite so well for 1997.
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Just to reiterate from the last thread: Corbyn was still denying that Russia was to blame for the Salisbury attack five weeks after the attack.
"Jeremy Corbyn has said he still wants to see "incontrovertible evidence" that Russia was behind the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/jeremy-corbyn-refuses-to-blame-russia-for-salisbury-attack-despite-seeing-new-evidence
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-43775577
That 1992 result is a good example of why FPTP is not fit for purpose. The useless Johnston was returned to parliament on 26% of the vote.
Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber - Result
LD 26% (-11)
Lab 25% (nc)
SNP 25% (+10)
Con 23% (nc)
Grn 2% (+2)
I was an SNP activist and multiple council candidate in this seat at that time. It was almost impossible to find anybody who actually had the Lib Dems as their first preference. I would guesstimate that 80%+ of their vote was Labourites trying to keep the Tories out, or Tories trying to keep the SNP out or SNP trying to keep Labour out, or various other machinations.
In other words, LD support was simply a mirage. It did not exist in reality. An astonishing feat in retrospect.
At the last election I was anyone but Boris, others were anyone bar Corbyn. To me either of those positions is better than those who voted pro Boris or Corbyn!
Highland Central LD 9.8%
Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0%
Argyll LD 9.2%
Like snow off a dyke.
PR would be a step in the right direction: it strongly encourages electors to cast a positive vote.
Weak on Afghanistan, now this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-43775573
Of course, boundary changes obsure this somewhat,
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10607037/The-curse-Keir-Just-Starmer-leader-plunged-lockdown-DAN-HODGES-writes.html
‘The politics of Scotland’s bookishness’
- The country’s official embrace of literature reveals much about its comfortably stuck political culture, cosily immured from an increasingly illiberal world.
… Official bookishness hints not only at what Scottish nationalism is aiming for, but what it instinctively turns away from...
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2022/03/the-politics-of-scotlands-bookishness
As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
Thus the absolute change in LD vote isn’t just an input, but very significantly part of the output.
F1: testing finished yesterday. Will post a ramble probably today. First race is a week away.
For anyone with to much time on their hands highly recommended!
Russia has struck a Ukrainian Military Training Ground 10 miles from the Polish Border. This site is an International Training Facility and also a likely supply route for NATO aid.
I loathe the onanistic jizz of much contemporary life. Anchoring ourselves in literature is a rather quaint but delightfully appealing alternative.
I haven't done the article justice: it's worth a read
Biden is wet behind the ears and an isolationist. His disgraceful sudden dumping of Afghanistan greenlit Putin to invade Ukraine.
You need courage to stand up to someone like Putin. We did it in the Cuban missile crisis and we should have done it this time. It's not a time to be frit.
Yes.
Is Biden a believer in NATO, and in defending Europe from Russian aggression?
Yes.
This isn't complicated.
The US have just delayed Slovakia's F-16V acquisition by 18 months to 2024. This may or may not be to delay the otherwise imminent availability of their MiG-29s. This is the unholy pact countries make when they join NATO. Do what you're told and shut the fuck up.
WW1
The Great Depression
WW2
They still managed flapper dresses and Art Deco but it wasn't exactly a great time to be alive.
I wonder if in years and decades to come, when the pb.com tedium of 'whataboutery' retorts finally subsides, whether we will add the Ukraine invasion to the long list of links to the UK-US Iraq War?
I know Mike is fond of telling us on the Left that we ought to bow down before the altar of Tony Blair but that man has a lot to answer for.
Call for a EU referendum.
Put Cameron in No10
Do a 180 on their core principles, disappoint everyone that voted for them.
Get decimated, unlock first Tory majority in decades that leads to Brexit referendum they called for.
Elect Jo Swinson, Give Boris 2019 Election on his terms, because they have one good poll.
Get decimated again. Give Tories 80 seat majority,Enable Hard Brexit.
Clearly there are other factors, eg Corbyn, but the LDs were there at the key moments, reliably there to screw things up.
I don't think Biden is a strong President on the world stage. He lacks the pugnacity to stand up to Putin with the only language Putin understands.
We have stood by and allowed a European nation get pulverised by Putin.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
The exception people remember is 1983, when an extreme Labour party had people heading for the Alliance in large numbers. But that had followed a significand split in the Labour party and the formation of a then new actor on the stage. And is therefore exceptional.
It is also easier often if an opportunity arises where you haven't targeted before as the opposition isn't prepared (usually it is prepared for past targeted areas).
I have been involved specifically in such activities for the LDs. For instance I ran a campaign in a borough by election in a seat we had never won, did not have a single member and had no information. A typical LD campaign won it. A huge blitz of leaflets and taking the opposition by surprise who never expected us to appear and couldn't react.
Our staring positions was we had nothing better to do and a decent candidate from a neighbouring ward so let's go for it. Getting the signatures on the nomination papers was actually the most difficult thing with no known supporters.
On reflection, their early stance on referenda, which for them was nothing more than a tactical gimmick, helped legitimise the eurosceptic right.
The high taxes imposed by Wilson would nowadays be considered eye watering and very left wing. The so-called 95% higher income tax rate is slightly misleading because it was graduated but he was no friend of capitalism, certainly not of high earners. And he was a massive supporter of trade unionism. In many ways it's because of Wilson (or 'bloody Wilson' to quote Basil Fawlty) that we ended up with the 3-day week under Heath, the winter of discontent under Callaghan and the Thatcher revolution which turned it all on its head and put power back in the people's hands.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/03/uk-tax-burden-high-1960s/
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
A lesson for every single candidate everywhere: you cannot fight the big fights in London but ignore your local base. Fight local fights first, then the big ones. Boris Johnson take note: this rule applies even to party leaders.
It may be a pure coincidence, but on both occasions that has been what Putin wants to happen. Can you help clarify the matter?
We see since what awful, incompetent Tory government looks like. The LD role in coalition is nothing to be embarrassed about, indeed it was a golden period of good government compared to what went before and after.
They'd lost the leftists who thought the Lib Dems owed allegiance to Labour, seemed embarrassed to have the temerity to be in office, and left the Conservatives to assume the mantle of government while they presented their pretend yellow Budget.
It was quite odd.
The unknown counter-factual is how things would have panned out had the UK gone it alone with what has essentially become global economic policy during the pandemic, and printed money without regard to the deficit.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Undoubtedly their (including the Liberals) most important contribution to politics in the past 50 years. But you aren't embarrassed about this "golden period of good government", so....
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Which he does not ask for on other occasions. Sensible people might ask themselves why....
We are getting closer to exposing the ugly truth about what is being done to women.
https://twitter.com/BluskyeAllison/status/1502916774634868736
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/03/2022-pre-season-testing-thoughts.html
It's all unknowns at the moment. I'm hoping a Republican doesn't win in 2024 - but I'm also hoping the Dems put up a better candidate than Biden. 2020 Trump versus Biden was really the US's version of 2019 Johnson versus Corbyn. Bad candidates on both sides.
Mr. Sandpit, is that a repost? Not a criticism (I, and others, often have FPT type posts), I'm trying to work out if I have deja vu or not.
As an aside, I once had it for 30 minutes solid, which was immensely disconcerting.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-boris-johnson-to-host-summit-with-nordic-and-baltic-leaders-to-deter-russian-aggression-12564716
Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502879082987593733
While the sanctions package has eventually become a pretty comprehensive one, the failure to signal this economic resolve much earlier still encouraged Putin to go all in.
Weakness where you escalate with half measures only after your opponent has been encouraged to think that you won't go even that far is the worst of all possible worlds. It leads to further escalation by the aggressor, and further half measures in response.
But having shown this weakness, what if Biden does now show resolve and draws a line in the sand that would prompt direct intervention risking a direct US-Russia conflict? Based on Biden's earlier track record would Putin take it seriously or would he dismiss it as rhetoric and double down regardless?
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Whether Ukraine stands or falls, there will henceforth be a massive Ukranian diaspora across Europe. Mostly young women and families, but when the war conscription ends, their husbands will join them.
It will have a lot of interesting effects, not least repopulating the Baltic States, Moldova and Romania. It will also solidify the EU opposition to Russia*. When the war is over, those sanctions will stay on Russia a very long time.
*we might see a sign of this in the Hungarian parliamentary elections just 3 weeks away.
A question: do you think Russia was behind the Salisbury attacks? Was the evidence incontrovertible enough for you?