The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
Boris has to unceremoniously dump Patel in his summer reshuffle
It also seems every politician being interviewed are now being asked if they are to take refugees into their own homes
Just to reiterate from the last thread: Corbyn was still denying that Russia was to blame for the Salisbury attack five weeks after the attack.
"Jeremy Corbyn has said he still wants to see "incontrovertible evidence" that Russia was behind the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury."
Perhaps explained by Porton Down being "less categorical than we expected", in Boris's interview linked off your link. Boris was convinced it was Russia but was presumably assured novichok was only applied to doorknobs and not sackfuls of rubles or tennis balls. Jeremy Corbyn was convinced enough to call for the boycott of Russian money. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-43775573
Oh, pull the other one. When it comes to Israel, Corbyn is liable to believe *anything* bad about it. When it comes to Russia, he demands 'incontrovertible evidence'. When it comes to anti-Semitism, he is utterly blind to it (to the extent of becoming anti-Semitic himself).
Whataboutery, and hypothetical whataboutery at that.
Is it whataboutery? Its a short thread of comments entirely about Corbyn and his history of comments on things (foreign affairs, terrorism etc) adding another to the mix is hardly whataboutery..
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)
We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU
I totally agree. The way forward is for much closer cooperation with the EU, without the need to rejoin. I wonder what the ERG feels about this, though.
The Lib Dem policy proposal being discussed yesterday is very much along the lines of closer co-operation.
It is right. We are aligned with Europe. Closer alignment without rejoining is a good way forward.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
That may happen. Or it my have the opposite effect: the UK being outside the EU, but more aligned with their position than America's, may be very much to our advantage as both sides try to 'win' us over.
It's all unknowns at the moment. I'm hoping a Republican doesn't win in 2024 - but I'm also hoping the Dems put up a better candidate than Biden. 2020 Trump versus Biden was really the US's version of 2019 Johnson versus Corbyn. Bad candidates on both sides.
The one thing we cannot change is our geography. I am not sure how you align with an isolationist, America First president if you are an integral part of the continent of Europe.
Urrm, the Second World War post 1940? When most of the continent of Europe was in Axis hands?
Big mistake there on your part: FDR wasn't isolationist.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Would it have been different if we were still in the EU with the current government?(appreciate that’s an unlikely scenario but otherwise you can just say “well Cameron wouldn’t have done this, look at Syria”)
Our visa policy on Ukrainians is unchanged. When we were in the EU we were unusual in requiring Ukrainians to get visas to enter the country.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Another leaver with Brexit on the brain. That is all you can read in @SouthamObserver rather good post. What is wrong with Brexiters. You won. Get over it.
They won but are beginning to realise the prize is heap of shite.
Just to reiterate from the last thread: Corbyn was still denying that Russia was to blame for the Salisbury attack five weeks after the attack.
"Jeremy Corbyn has said he still wants to see "incontrovertible evidence" that Russia was behind the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury."
Perhaps explained by Porton Down being "less categorical than we expected", in Boris's interview linked off your link. Boris was convinced it was Russia but was presumably assured novichok was only applied to doorknobs and not sackfuls of rubles or tennis balls. Jeremy Corbyn was convinced enough to call for the boycott of Russian money. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-43775573
Oh, pull the other one. When it comes to Israel, Corbyn is liable to believe *anything* bad about it. When it comes to Russia, he demands 'incontrovertible evidence'. When it comes to anti-Semitism, he is utterly blind to it (to the extent of becoming anti-Semitic himself).
Whataboutery, and hypothetical whataboutery at that.
A really poor response, yourself, Nick and others were jumping on the fact that Corbyn had seemed to blame Russia 'eight days' after the event. But here he was, five weeks after, rowing back on it, demanding 'incontrovertible evidence'.
Which he does not ask for on other occasions. Sensible people might ask themselves why....
And if you followed the link to the Boris interview, you will have seen that the director of Porton Down was also "less catagorical than we expected". You will also note that despite this, Corbyn went further than Boris or the government in demanding an end to Russian money in London and British politics.
Oh, come one. Firstly, I did follow the link. Secondly, think about what Corbyn said. He wanted 'incontrovertible evidence'.
A question: do you think Russia was behind the Salisbury attacks? Was the evidence incontrovertible enough for you?
Yes but while we are asking silly questions, do you know more about chemical warfare and nerve agents than the head of Porton Down? No? Thought not. So where does that leave us? Apparently focussed on nebulous standards of proof while ignoring that Corbyn was calling for stronger measures against Russia than adopted by Boris and the government.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
That may happen. Or it my have the opposite effect: the UK being outside the EU, but more aligned with their position than America's, may be very much to our advantage as both sides try to 'win' us over.
It's all unknowns at the moment. I'm hoping a Republican doesn't win in 2024 - but I'm also hoping the Dems put up a better candidate than Biden. 2020 Trump versus Biden was really the US's version of 2019 Johnson versus Corbyn. Bad candidates on both sides.
The one thing we cannot change is our geography. I am not sure how you align with an isolationist, America First president if you are an integral part of the continent of Europe.
Urrm, the Second World War post 1940? When most of the continent of Europe was in Axis hands?
Big mistake there on your part: FDR wasn't isolationist.
A good point, but pre-Pearl Harbour there was a very large isolationist bloc. Jo Kennedy being a prominent one.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
Boris has to unceremoniously dump Patel in his summer reshuffle
It also seems every politician being interviewed are now being asked if they are to take refugees into their own homes
According to this story that is back to front: Patel wanted more refugees, pig dog overruled her
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
Boris has to unceremoniously dump Patel in his summer reshuffle
It also seems every politician being interviewed are now being asked if they are to take refugees into their own homes
Gove came across pretty well on ITV news too this morning.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
US sanctions once imposed are extraordinary difficult to lift. As of today, there are already 6,000 various Western sanctions imposed against Russia which is more than the sum of sanctions in existence against Iran, Syria and North Korea put together. History shows that US sanctions can last almost without any time limit: sanctions on Cuba are more than 60 years old, on Iran, more than 40 years old, and even the sanctions on the USSR (e.g. the Jackson-Vanik amendment) that were imposed for one reason continued on the books during twenty years after the end of the USSR even after the original reason that led to the sanctions (Jewish migration) had entirely disappeared.
When the post-Putin government tries to have sanctions lifted, it will be faced by a such a list of concessions that would be politically impossible to satisfy.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Another leaver with Brexit on the brain. That is all you can read in @SouthamObserver rather good post. What is wrong with Brexiters. You won. Get over it.
There is a reasonable correlation with Brexit and grumpy old man syndrome. Many were never going to be happy with it regardless and enjoy finding faults in and moaning about neighbours, whether that is those in the same village or the same continent.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)
We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU
I totally agree. The way forward is for much closer cooperation with the EU, without the need to rejoin. I wonder what the ERG feels about this, though.
I dont wonder, we can be 100% sure what they feel about that. They worry a lack of divergence means the risk of rejoining is higher. When cooperation would help both sides on many things and Brexit aside we are aligned in purpose.
To a much lesser extent this can be seen by some on the Euro side nixxing the idea of cooperation with or input from the UK on a specific project or area as they dont want an ex member to be seen to benefit, when they already work with partners on many things.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
That may happen. Or it my have the opposite effect: the UK being outside the EU, but more aligned with their position than America's, may be very much to our advantage as both sides try to 'win' us over.
It's all unknowns at the moment. I'm hoping a Republican doesn't win in 2024 - but I'm also hoping the Dems put up a better candidate than Biden. 2020 Trump versus Biden was really the US's version of 2019 Johnson versus Corbyn. Bad candidates on both sides.
The one thing we cannot change is our geography. I am not sure how you align with an isolationist, America First president if you are an integral part of the continent of Europe.
Urrm, the Second World War post 1940? When most of the continent of Europe was in Axis hands?
Big mistake there on your part: FDR wasn't isolationist.
Except when campaigning to win the Presidency, of course.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
No, the Hostile Environment policy and bureaucratic misery that we inflict on refugees long preceeded Brexit.
Whether Ukraine stands or falls, there will henceforth be a massive Ukranian diaspora across Europe. Mostly young women and families, but when the war conscription ends, their husbands will join them.
It will have a lot of interesting effects, not least repopulating the Baltic States, Moldova and Romania. It will also solidify the EU opposition to Russia*. When the war is over, those sanctions will stay on Russia a very long time.
*we might see a sign of this in the Hungarian parliamentary elections just 3 weeks away.
There is also going to be a very substantial brain drain out of Russia.
Seems Helsinki is seeing Russians arriving from St Petersburg
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
I did not say that Brexit has fucked up Europe. I actually think that Putin (not Brexit) has made the EU a hell of a lot stronger. But a much stronger EU creates strategic challenges for a UK that is unavoidably and permanently a part of the continent that the EU already dominates. Throw in an isolationist, America first president on the other side of the Atlantic and those challenges become acute. As I also say, though, we are likely to pretend otherwise. We may fool ourselves for a while, but that will make little difference to anything in the real world.
Except we have demonstrably had a positive impact in the current crisis
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
No, the Hostile Environment policy and bureaucratic misery that we inflict on refugees long preceeded Brexit.
Whether Ukraine stands or falls, there will henceforth be a massive Ukranian diaspora across Europe. Mostly young women and families, but when the war conscription ends, their husbands will join them.
It will have a lot of interesting effects, not least repopulating the Baltic States, Moldova and Romania. It will also solidify the EU opposition to Russia*. When the war is over, those sanctions will stay on Russia a very long time.
*we might see a sign of this in the Hungarian parliamentary elections just 3 weeks away.
There is also going to be a very substantial brain drain out of Russia.
Yes, I think so. The young, urban and educated will leave, and Russia will wither into nationalistic obscurantism and despotism. Never will the jibe "Upper Volta with Rockets" be shown to be more true.
I have always thought of Britain and Russia as the bookends of Europe* each not fully comfortable with being part of the European demos, us looking outwards to the Atlantic, and them to Asia. Without either of us, Europe will develop into quite a different place.
Does anyone have that link to the twitter feed with the excellent maps of the current situation in Ukraine. Sorry I can't remember any more details but the links have been posted on here twice.
On topic I expect more LD tactical voting for Labour now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as there was in 1997 after Blair replaced Kinnock. There was already a lot of Labour tactical voting for the LDs in 2019 anyway
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)
We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU
I totally agree. The way forward is for much closer cooperation with the EU, without the need to rejoin. I wonder what the ERG feels about this, though.
I genuinely believe the ERG will be marginalised by circumstances and if not then GE24 is lost to the conservatives
It really is time to move beyond Brexit. That needs realism from all parties. We need to be cooperating closely with the EU on key issues, such as security and energy; while at a time of mounting global uncertainty, we may also want to look again at whether greater access to a single market of 400 million people that is literally on our doorstep might be a good idea. None of which means we must or even should rejoin the EU.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:
Highland Central LD 9.8% Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0% Argyll LD 9.2%
Like snow off a dyke.
That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.
As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
Have you been to Chesterfield and Mansfield?! They're not chalk and cheese, but, well, I'd rather be in Chesterfield.
Yes, I know Chesterfield well. I agree they're different, but not by all that much.
Many years ago I helped out at the Chesterfield by-election, and back then it wasn't fertile territory for the LibDems; you couldn't imagine the LibDems winning there. Yet eventually they did.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Another leaver with Brexit on the brain. That is all you can read in @SouthamObserver rather good post. What is wrong with Brexiters. You won. Get over it.
They won but are beginning to realise the prize is heap of shite.
I voted remain and am very pleased we left and the future, especially post this war, will not be as you describe but a much better relationship
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
I did not say that Brexit has fucked up Europe. I actually think that Putin (not Brexit) has made the EU a hell of a lot stronger. But a much stronger EU creates strategic challenges for a UK that is unavoidably and permanently a part of the continent that the EU already dominates. Throw in an isolationist, America first president on the other side of the Atlantic and those challenges become acute. As I also say, though, we are likely to pretend otherwise. We may fool ourselves for a while, but that will make little difference to anything in the real world.
Except we have demonstrably had a positive impact in the current crisis
Off topic, I was at Twickenham yesterday - what a great game!
We all thought it was going to be ruined by the red card in the 2nd minute but England put up a sterling fight. Best atmosphere at Twickenham for years.
I cannot avoid the impression that Biden is extremely weak. The story is likely to be that Ukraine lost the war because it couldn't bomb the Russian positions, because it didn't have jets, because Biden prevented it, because Biden was too scared to poke the bear.
Weak on Afghanistan, now this.
Totally agree.
Biden is wet behind the ears and an isolationist. His disgraceful sudden dumping of Afghanistan greenlit Putin to invade Ukraine.
You need courage to stand up to someone like Putin. We did it in the Cuban missile crisis and we should have done it this time. It's not a time to be frit.
I generally agree with you regarding Biden in terms of the scale of military support. The US has held back enough to ensure that Putin has not been brought to a complete stop and entered into serious negotiations. Putin can still see a path to winning if he commits further and deeper.
While the sanctions package has eventually become a pretty comprehensive one, the failure to signal this economic resolve much earlier still encouraged Putin to go all in.
Weakness where you escalate with half measures only after your opponent has been encouraged to think that you won't go even that far is the worst of all possible worlds. It leads to further escalation by the aggressor, and further half measures in response.
But having shown this weakness, what if Biden does now show resolve and draws a line in the sand that would prompt direct intervention risking a direct US-Russia conflict? Based on Biden's earlier track record would Putin take it seriously or would he dismiss it as rhetoric and double down regardless?
A stronger reaction day 1 (or pre-invasion) might have resulted in Russia having more limited objectives which they would have secured by now
Going all in has united the west and highlighted the weaknesses in Russia’s military and political structures
Strategically the west has done better out of Biden’s approach, perhaps out of luck, and at a high cost for Ukraine and it’s people.
Are you absolutely 100% sure this wasn’t a deliberate play?
Russians occupying southern city of Kherson are reportedly trying to call a referendum to establish a new statelet: Kherson National Republic (like DNR and LNR).
Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine
It bears noting just how brazen the Russians are being. They know it doesnt fool anyone since the idea it is every Ukraininan cities dream to be an 'independent peoples republic' is just barmy.
It also really undermines attempts to find a painful compromise for Ukraine around Donbas, since it would demonstrate the Russians wont stop at Donbas and Crimea - they will March in and declare further new 'states' at will, making the idea of conceding those areas as price for peace false.
Does anyone have that link to the twitter feed with the excellent maps of the current situation in Ukraine. Sorry I can't remember any more details but the links have been posted on here twice.
On topic I expect more LD tactical voting for Labour now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as there was in 1997 after Blair replaced Kinnock. There was already a lot of Labour tactical voting for the LDs in 2019 anyway
In the Red Wall, I agree but in Conservative strong holds and 'leafy' marginals, I would anticipate more tactical votes for Lib Dems.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)
We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU
I totally agree. The way forward is for much closer cooperation with the EU, without the need to rejoin. I wonder what the ERG feels about this, though.
I genuinely believe the ERG will be marginalised by circumstances and if not then GE24 is lost to the conservatives
It really is time to move beyond Brexit. That needs realism from all parties. We need to be cooperating closely with the EU on key issues, such as security and energy; while at a time of mounting global uncertainty, we may also want to look again at whether greater access to a single market of 400 million people that is literally on our doorstep might be a good idea. None of which means we must or even should rejoin the EU.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
The lines from Trump that actually matter are the ones he was spouting prior to the invasion. The fact that he can travel 180 degrees in such a short space of time demonstrates just how unreliable he is.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
No, the Hostile Environment policy and bureaucratic misery that we inflict on refugees long preceeded Brexit.
Whether Ukraine stands or falls, there will henceforth be a massive Ukranian diaspora across Europe. Mostly young women and families, but when the war conscription ends, their husbands will join them.
It will have a lot of interesting effects, not least repopulating the Baltic States, Moldova and Romania. It will also solidify the EU opposition to Russia*. When the war is over, those sanctions will stay on Russia a very long time.
*we might see a sign of this in the Hungarian parliamentary elections just 3 weeks away.
There is also going to be a very substantial brain drain out of Russia.
That's how Putin refers to the effects of a bullet to the head I think. Hes not been murdered, there's just been a substantial brain drain. That's not an invasion it's a special military operation.
Does anyone have that link to the twitter feed with the excellent maps of the current situation in Ukraine. Sorry I can't remember any more details but the links have been posted on here twice.
I don’t have a link but think it is scribblemaps if that helps
Mr. Jonathan, you missed out a manifesto promise for a referendum on a treaty then reneging on that to abstain while then calling for a 'real' In/Out referendum.
I don’t believe LD leaders are bad people, but they do make mistakes due to being a little to eager to punch above their weight
The Jo Swinson 'prepare for Government' debacle comes to mind. Oh lord. Talk about hubris.
It's good to encourage people to dream big, but if you go too big you just cause people to snap awake.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
I did not say that Brexit has fucked up Europe. I actually think that Putin (not Brexit) has made the EU a hell of a lot stronger. But a much stronger EU creates strategic challenges for a UK that is unavoidably and permanently a part of the continent that the EU already dominates. Throw in an isolationist, America first president on the other side of the Atlantic and those challenges become acute. As I also say, though, we are likely to pretend otherwise. We may fool ourselves for a while, but that will make little difference to anything in the real world.
Except we have demonstrably had a positive impact in the current crisis
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
No, the Hostile Environment policy and bureaucratic misery that we inflict on refugees long preceeded Brexit.
Whether Ukraine stands or falls, there will henceforth be a massive Ukranian diaspora across Europe. Mostly young women and families, but when the war conscription ends, their husbands will join them.
It will have a lot of interesting effects, not least repopulating the Baltic States, Moldova and Romania. It will also solidify the EU opposition to Russia*. When the war is over, those sanctions will stay on Russia a very long time.
*we might see a sign of this in the Hungarian parliamentary elections just 3 weeks away.
There is also going to be a very substantial brain drain out of Russia.
Yes, I think so. The young, urban and educated will leave, and Russia will wither into nationalistic obscurantism and despotism. Never will the jibe "Upper Volta with Rockets" be shown to be more true.
I have always thought of Britain and Russia as the bookends of Europe* each not fully comfortable with being part of the European demos, us looking outwards to the Atlantic, and them to Asia. Without either of us, Europe will develop into quite a different place.
*possibly Iberia are also a bookend countries.
Spain and Portugal are far, far more mainstream European than they were. It's hard to see that changing any time soon.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
I did not say that Brexit has fucked up Europe. I actually think that Putin (not Brexit) has made the EU a hell of a lot stronger. But a much stronger EU creates strategic challenges for a UK that is unavoidably and permanently a part of the continent that the EU already dominates. Throw in an isolationist, America first president on the other side of the Atlantic and those challenges become acute. As I also say, though, we are likely to pretend otherwise. We may fool ourselves for a while, but that will make little difference to anything in the real world.
Except we have demonstrably had a positive impact in the current crisis
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)
We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU
I am not sure that I agree with Southam's view on this. For a start, an EU army is more likely to happen with the UK out of the EU. There is nothing stopping the UK having very close defence co-operation with the EU, and any future EU army.
Trump is an unknown, but he might ultimately come to see Biden's weakness over Russia as a political opportunity to do a strongman act.
Off topic, I was at Twickenham yesterday - what a great game!
We all thought it was going to be ruined by the red card in the 2nd minute but England put up a sterling fight. Best atmosphere at Twickenham for years.
Was Boris there? Remember that in 2020 everyone swallowed CCHQ's spin that racing spread Covid (spoiler: it didn't) to divert attention from Boris attending the Twickers game just three days before the Cheltenham Festival.
On topic I expect more LD tactical voting for Labour now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as there was in 1997 after Blair replaced Kinnock. There was already a lot of Labour tactical voting for the LDs in 2019 anyway
Labour may also gain a bit from additional tactical voting by Tories in Scotland too in constituencies where they are clearly the leading unionist candidate. They are the closest Unionist party in my consituency of Dundee West, for example (albeit not particularly close) but there is no way on God's earth that I or anyone like me was ever going to vote for Corbyn whose stupidity was his only defence to a charge of treason.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Another leaver with Brexit on the brain. That is all you can read in @SouthamObserver rather good post. What is wrong with Brexiters. You won. Get over it.
They won but are beginning to realise the prize is heap of shite.
I voted remain and am very pleased we left and the future, especially post this war, will not be as you describe but a much better relationship
I haven't described the relationship with the EU, and I agree we will end up having a much closer one than post Johnson's 'fantastic deal'.
The analogy is: We've decided to cut off our own leg because of an in-grown toenail. After a few years of hopping about on one leg, we'll get a decent prosthetic and be able to get along ok... but we'd have been better not to amputate the leg off in the first place.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
He's all over the place and that's a problem. He'll be very clear he means X then at last minute switch to Y and claim he never backed X.
The problem is Republican politicians pretend to believe him by cherry picking the last thing he said not analysing his words and actions and thus given support he may win.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Another leaver with Brexit on the brain. That is all you can read in @SouthamObserver rather good post. What is wrong with Brexiters. You won. Get over it.
They won but are beginning to realise the prize is heap of shite.
I voted remain and am very pleased we left and the future, especially post this war, will not be as you describe but a much better relationship
I haven't described the relationship with the EU, and I agree we will end up having a much closer one than post Johnson's 'fantastic deal'.
The analogy is: We've decided to cut off our own leg because of an in-grown toenail. After a few years of hopping about on one leg, we'll get a decent prosthetic and be able to get along ok... but we'd have been better not to amputate the leg off in the first place.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
"Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
I did not say that Brexit has fucked up Europe. I actually think that Putin (not Brexit) has made the EU a hell of a lot stronger. But a much stronger EU creates strategic challenges for a UK that is unavoidably and permanently a part of the continent that the EU already dominates. Throw in an isolationist, America first president on the other side of the Atlantic and those challenges become acute. As I also say, though, we are likely to pretend otherwise. We may fool ourselves for a while, but that will make little difference to anything in the real world.
Except we have demonstrably had a positive impact in the current crisis
Again, where did I say that we hadn't?
“Little difference to anything in the real world”
That does not say what you want it to say.
I may have misunderstood your post as it is confusingly written (you could be referring to the fact that your defined strategic imperatives - which I disagree with - are inevitable) but I’m not sure what you are insinuating.
For geopolitical analysis it’s important to take a step back from the day to day rather than apply pre-existing prejudices like you tend to
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
"Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
Off topic, I was at Twickenham yesterday - what a great game!
We all thought it was going to be ruined by the red card in the 2nd minute but England put up a sterling fight. Best atmosphere at Twickenham for years.
Was Boris there? Remember that in 2020 everyone swallowed CCHQ's spin that racing spread Covid (spoiler: it didn't) to divert attention from Boris attending the Twickers game just three days before the Cheltenham Festival.
I dunno, I was in the cheap seats. I was at that 2020 game v Wales too, thinking all along 'I wonder if it's wise being here'. Never saw Johnson at that game either but, given the rules at the time allowed the game to be fully attended, I can't see the problem really.
Parties at No. 10 however... resignation-level offence imo.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
No, the Hostile Environment policy and bureaucratic misery that we inflict on refugees long preceeded Brexit.
Whether Ukraine stands or falls, there will henceforth be a massive Ukranian diaspora across Europe. Mostly young women and families, but when the war conscription ends, their husbands will join them.
It will have a lot of interesting effects, not least repopulating the Baltic States, Moldova and Romania. It will also solidify the EU opposition to Russia*. When the war is over, those sanctions will stay on Russia a very long time.
*we might see a sign of this in the Hungarian parliamentary elections just 3 weeks away.
There is also going to be a very substantial brain drain out of Russia.
Yes, I think so. The young, urban and educated will leave, and Russia will wither into nationalistic obscurantism and despotism. Never will the jibe "Upper Volta with Rockets" be shown to be more true.
I have always thought of Britain and Russia as the bookends of Europe* each not fully comfortable with being part of the European demos, us looking outwards to the Atlantic, and them to Asia. Without either of us, Europe will develop into quite a different place.
*possibly Iberia are also a bookend countries.
Spain and Portugal are far, far more mainstream European than they were. It's hard to see that changing any time soon.
Yes, I think that they have got over their post colonial angst rather better than us or the Russians. Still strong connections to Latin America, but both see their place in Europe as the future.
Russians occupying southern city of Kherson are reportedly trying to call a referendum to establish a new statelet: Kherson National Republic (like DNR and LNR).
Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine
It bears noting just how brazen the Russians are being. They know it doesnt fool anyone since the idea it is every Ukraininan cities dream to be an 'independent peoples republic' is just barmy.
It also really undermines attempts to find a painful compromise for Ukraine around Donbas, since it would demonstrate the Russians wont stop at Donbas and Crimea - they will March in and declare further new 'states' at will, making the idea of conceding those areas as price for peace false.
Indeed this is the fundamental flaw in the Nick Palmer way of thinking. The Russians aren't there because of a refusal to recognise Donbass/Crimea. Nato membership horrifies them because it means their threats against Ukraine are likely to fall on deaf ears. This is a mafia state. These people are gangsters. Their method is extortion. You either stand up to them or submit to their wishes. A long term negotiated settlement is for the birds.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
Donald T says a lot of things when out campaigning - remember the wall that Mexico was going to pay for....
Trump is full of shit.
If he wasn't he would be an empty vessel.
I fear the vessel itself is made of compacted shit. Therefore anything you put in it gets soiled, and Republicans have been drinking deep from it and thus contaminated.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:
Highland Central LD 9.8% Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0% Argyll LD 9.2%
Like snow off a dyke.
That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.
As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
They used to be the only choice if you could not bring yourself to vote for either of the two evil parties. perhaps nowadays people would just choose not to vote instead.
Off topic, I was at Twickenham yesterday - what a great game!
We all thought it was going to be ruined by the red card in the 2nd minute but England put up a sterling fight. Best atmosphere at Twickenham for years.
Was Boris there? Remember that in 2020 everyone swallowed CCHQ's spin that racing spread Covid (spoiler: it didn't) to divert attention from Boris attending the Twickers game just three days before the Cheltenham Festival.
What on earth are you on about? I don't remember any such spin at all. And are you implying that racing doesn't spread covid but rugby does?!
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
The lines from Trump that actually matter are the ones he was spouting prior to the invasion. The fact that he can travel 180 degrees in such a short space of time demonstrates just how unreliable he is.
True but we need all the support we can get. If Putin can see a future president Trump will not looking favourably upon him, it's another blow.
Does anyone have that link to the twitter feed with the excellent maps of the current situation in Ukraine. Sorry I can't remember any more details but the links have been posted on here twice.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.
It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
That may happen. Or it my have the opposite effect: the UK being outside the EU, but more aligned with their position than America's, may be very much to our advantage as both sides try to 'win' us over.
It's all unknowns at the moment. I'm hoping a Republican doesn't win in 2024 - but I'm also hoping the Dems put up a better candidate than Biden. 2020 Trump versus Biden was really the US's version of 2019 Johnson versus Corbyn. Bad candidates on both sides.
The one thing we cannot change is our geography. I am not sure how you align with an isolationist, America First president if you are an integral part of the continent of Europe.
Urrm, the Second World War post 1940? When most of the continent of Europe was in Axis hands?
Big mistake there on your part: FDR wasn't isolationist.
Except when campaigning to win the Presidency, of course.
I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.
Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
I did not say that Brexit has fucked up Europe. I actually think that Putin (not Brexit) has made the EU a hell of a lot stronger. But a much stronger EU creates strategic challenges for a UK that is unavoidably and permanently a part of the continent that the EU already dominates. Throw in an isolationist, America first president on the other side of the Atlantic and those challenges become acute. As I also say, though, we are likely to pretend otherwise. We may fool ourselves for a while, but that will make little difference to anything in the real world.
Except we have demonstrably had a positive impact in the current crisis
Again, where did I say that we hadn't?
“Little difference to anything in the real world”
That does not say what you want it to say.
I may have misunderstood your post as it is confusingly written (you could be referring to the fact that your defined strategic imperatives - which I disagree with - are inevitable) but I’m not sure what you are insinuating.
For geopolitical analysis it’s important to take a step back from the day to day rather than apply pre-existing prejudices like you tend to
I talked about strategic challenges, not imperatives. The imperative is always what is best for the UK. The challenge is working out what that is. This challenge becomes more acute when there is a much stronger, more cohesive EU on our border and a much more isolationist US across the Atlantic - especially as neither is a scenario that has been given much serious consideration up to now. We can pretend to ourselves that nothing has changed, but such pretence does not actually affect the reality.
The EHRC launches an investigation into the bullying of female academics critical of gender identity theory. Stonewall’s response: attack the EHRC at the UN.
We are getting closer to exposing the ugly truth about what is being done to women.
The EHRC launches an investigation into the bullying of female academics critical of gender identity theory. Stonewall’s response: attack the EHRC at the UN.
We are getting closer to exposing the ugly truth about what is being done to women.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
That may happen. Or it my have the opposite effect: the UK being outside the EU, but more aligned with their position than America's, may be very much to our advantage as both sides try to 'win' us over.
It's all unknowns at the moment. I'm hoping a Republican doesn't win in 2024 - but I'm also hoping the Dems put up a better candidate than Biden. 2020 Trump versus Biden was really the US's version of 2019 Johnson versus Corbyn. Bad candidates on both sides.
The one thing we cannot change is our geography. I am not sure how you align with an isolationist, America First president if you are an integral part of the continent of Europe.
Urrm, the Second World War post 1940? When most of the continent of Europe was in Axis hands?
Big mistake there on your part: FDR wasn't isolationist.
A good point, but pre-Pearl Harbour there was a very large isolationist bloc. Jo Kennedy being a prominent one.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Pity Johnson and his merry band were best chums with all the baddies , sold them golden passports, provided teh laundry and filled their own pockets with bucketloads of dodgy money. Hard to imagine they were at all unbiased.
Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:
Highland Central LD 9.8% Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0% Argyll LD 9.2%
Like snow off a dyke.
That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.
As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
They used to be the only choice if you could not bring yourself to vote for either of the two evil parties. perhaps nowadays people would just choose not to vote instead.
spoilt for choice nowadays - SNP, PC, Green, even BXP - the fragmentation among opposition parties has been a great help for Tory strategists
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
Boris has to unceremoniously dump Patel in his summer reshuffle
It also seems every politician being interviewed are now being asked if they are to take refugees into their own homes
He had to put out a retraction as he started at 300 thousand , really making a difference as usual though far from a good one , also as usual. Odius creature.
I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.
Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
Yes, Ed Davey would have been much more canny in the 2018-19 period, but the feeling that it was time for a female leader was a strong one. Labour should not repeat that error. I think though that most of the serious contenders for Labour leader are female and a lot stronger than Swinson.
I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.
Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
Russians occupying southern city of Kherson are reportedly trying to call a referendum to establish a new statelet: Kherson National Republic (like DNR and LNR).
Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine
It bears noting just how brazen the Russians are being. They know it doesnt fool anyone since the idea it is every Ukraininan cities dream to be an 'independent peoples republic' is just barmy.
It also really undermines attempts to find a painful compromise for Ukraine around Donbas, since it would demonstrate the Russians wont stop at Donbas and Crimea - they will March in and declare further new 'states' at will, making the idea of conceding those areas as price for peace false.
Indeed this is the fundamental flaw in the Nick Palmer way of thinking. The Russians aren't there because of a refusal to recognise Donbass/Crimea. Nato membership horrifies them because it means their threats against Ukraine are likely to fall on deaf ears. This is a mafia state. These people are gangsters. Their method is extortion. You either stand up to them or submit to their wishes. A long term negotiated settlement is for the birds.
It does rather remind me of an event where someone had not been adhering to licensing conditions and was facing a review as a result. They swore they would do better and someone suggested could they condition that they would need to adhere to the conditions from hereon out.
It was pointed out you couldn't since the whole point was they should have been adhering to conditions in the first place.
A negotiated settlement might well end up being reached around Donbas who knows, Ukraine has shitty options available, but it could well amount to Russia promising not to do what no one should be doing anyway, and that this time they mean it - unlike last time when they agreed something similar.
Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.
On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?
I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.
Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
For sure. She wasn't a good leader, as I said. But there were plenty of idiotic decisions - such as sending those expensive letters (well known to most PB'ers) through the post to the most ludicrous of constituencies - taken as tactical decision by the HQ campaigners that you can't pin on her.
And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.
On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?
If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn and flowerbeds, where it has been digging for worms.
Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:
Highland Central LD 9.8% Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0% Argyll LD 9.2%
Like snow off a dyke.
That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.
As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
Sorry for the slow reply. My mum is from near Chesterfield and I would say they are quite different. Chesterfield has some quite posh areas which are/were fertile for the Lib Dems.
#Russia imposes curfew, bans weapons and protests in occupied towns. Breaking it will be "strictly punished" by the "military law enforcement." https://t.co/ezH86f12II
And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.
On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?
If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn.
Plenty of badgers round here. Last summer they dug a latrine in the middle of the grass. I do my best now to have an evening “badger piss” somewhere on the fence line, as the only effective deterrent I could find on google.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
"Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.
Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
For sure. She wasn't a good leader, as I said. But there were plenty of idiotic decisions - such as sending those expensive letters (well known to most PB'ers) through the post to the most ludicrous of constituencies - taken as tactical decision by the HQ campaigners that you can't pin on her.
Are you referring to the letters from a certain ‘polling and elections expert’?
#Russia imposes curfew, bans weapons and protests in occupied towns. Breaking it will be "strictly punished" by the "military law enforcement." https://t.co/ezH86f12II
Give it a few weeks and they might be doing the same in the motherland. What odds of somewhere like Vladivostok or a forgotten city that few have heard of being the spark for regime change?
#Russia imposes curfew, bans weapons and protests in occupied towns. Breaking it will be "strictly punished" by the "military law enforcement." https://t.co/ezH86f12II
How curious that a targeted operation to demilitarize a state needs to micro manage administration like it is conquering territory.
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
"Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon
It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
#Russia imposes curfew, bans weapons and protests in occupied towns. Breaking it will be "strictly punished" by the "military law enforcement." https://t.co/ezH86f12II
Give it a few weeks and they might be doing the same in the motherland. What odds of somewhere like Vladivostok or a forgotten city that few have heard of being the spark for regime change?
That would be unusual in Russia. Normally it's trouble in the capital that does for the leadership - Petrograd March 1917 for the Tsar, Petrograd and Moscow November 1917 for Kerensky's Provisional Government, and Moscow 1991 for the Communists.
I mean, there was rioting in many other cities as well in 1991, but it was Moscow that was the killer punch.
I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.
Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
For sure. She wasn't a good leader, as I said. But there were plenty of idiotic decisions - such as sending those expensive letters (well known to most PB'ers) through the post
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
"Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon
It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
"Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon
It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
Boris has been in plenty of tight spaces in his career but I suspect this will be a very difficult one for him to escape from. It's tricky. He wants the war to be his Falklands moment. But if the war is over quickly then attention can turn quickly to his personal travails.
America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.
(Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)
Why all the hate for Biden this morning?
His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.
His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.
What he said.
Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.
I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.
The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.
And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
Pity Johnson and his merry band were best chums with all the baddies , sold them golden passports, provided teh laundry and filled their own pockets with bucketloads of dodgy money. Hard to imagine they were at all unbiased.
"Tier 1 investor visas were introduced in 2008 to encourage rich people from outside the EU to invest in the UK." Thank you Gordon Brown.
The number issued peaked in 2014 at 1,172 - during that, er, "golden age of government" with the LibDems in coalition. Not that you would know that on here...
Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
Boris has been in plenty of tight spaces in his career
The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.
The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.
Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.
And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
"Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon
It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
I wouldn't soil my hands with their money.
Is the sponsorship registration scheme up and running @Dura_Ace? If so, do you have a link?
Comments
Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
Boris has to unceremoniously dump Patel in his summer reshuffle
It also seems every politician being interviewed are now being asked if they are to take refugees into their own homes
It is right. We are aligned with Europe. Closer alignment without rejoining is a good way forward.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_Committee
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-number-10-put-brakes-on-home-office-plans-for-more-generous-refugee-offer-sky-news-understands-12563556
Which won't stop him throwing her under a bus of course
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582503/Trump-says-let-situation-Ukraine-continue-slams-paper-tiger-NATO.html
US sanctions once imposed are extraordinary difficult to lift. As of today, there are already 6,000 various Western sanctions imposed against Russia which is more than the sum of sanctions in existence against Iran, Syria and North Korea put together. History shows that US sanctions can last almost without any time limit: sanctions on Cuba are more than 60 years old, on Iran, more than 40 years old, and even the sanctions on the USSR (e.g. the Jackson-Vanik amendment) that were imposed for one reason continued on the books during twenty years after the end of the USSR even after the original reason that led to the sanctions (Jewish migration) had entirely disappeared.
When the post-Putin government tries to have sanctions lifted, it will be faced by a such a list of concessions that would be politically impossible to satisfy.
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/russias-long-term-prospects
To a much lesser extent this can be seen by some on the Euro side nixxing the idea of cooperation with or input from the UK on a specific project or area as they dont want an ex member to be seen to benefit, when they already work with partners on many things.
I have always thought of Britain and Russia as the bookends of Europe* each not fully comfortable with being part of the European demos, us looking outwards to the Atlantic, and them to Asia. Without either of us, Europe will develop into quite a different place.
*possibly Iberia are also a bookend countries.
Many years ago I helped out at the Chesterfield by-election, and back then it wasn't fertile territory for the LibDems; you couldn't imagine the LibDems winning there. Yet eventually they did.
We all thought it was going to be ruined by the red card in the 2nd minute but England put up a sterling fight. Best atmosphere at Twickenham for years.
Going all in has united the west and highlighted the weaknesses in Russia’s military and political structures
Strategically the west has done better out of Biden’s approach, perhaps out of luck, and at a high cost for Ukraine and it’s people.
Are you absolutely 100% sure this wasn’t a deliberate play?
It also really undermines attempts to find a painful compromise for Ukraine around Donbas, since it would demonstrate the Russians wont stop at Donbas and Crimea - they will March in and declare further new 'states' at will, making the idea of conceding those areas as price for peace false.
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502915584496971778?t=4cd6fdzy2UkOO0VrR3ZKbg&s=19
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12
Trump is an unknown, but he might ultimately come to see Biden's weakness over Russia as a political opportunity to do a strongman act.
The analogy is: We've decided to cut off our own leg because of an in-grown toenail. After a few years of hopping about on one leg, we'll get a decent prosthetic and be able to get along ok... but we'd have been better not to amputate the leg off in the first place.
The problem is Republican politicians pretend to believe him by cherry picking the last thing he said not analysing his words and actions and thus given support he may win.
Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
For geopolitical analysis it’s important to take a step back from the day to day rather than apply pre-existing prejudices like you tend to
Parties at No. 10 however... resignation-level offence imo.
From experience I remain profoundly sceptical.
Thanks @Foxy. JominiW is the one I was thinking of but I will bookmark the other one too. Cheers!
I am expressing a view, as we all do on here.
Now both have mysteriously disappeared: one piece is a dead link, the other leads to Lebedev’s statement published last week https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1502931453218336768/photo/1
FDR is one of my all-time heroes. Re-built America after the Great Depression, vanquished Fascism and saved the Free World.
And a paraplegic too!
- Ukrainian refugees
people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:
- his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153
It was pointed out you couldn't since the whole point was they should have been adhering to conditions in the first place.
A negotiated settlement might well end up being reached around Donbas who knows, Ukraine has shitty options available, but it could well amount to Russia promising not to do what no one should be doing anyway, and that this time they mean it - unlike last time when they agreed something similar.
On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?
It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
I mean, there was rioting in many other cities as well in 1991, but it was Moscow that was the killer punch.
The number issued peaked in 2014 at 1,172 - during that, er, "golden age of government" with the LibDems in coalition. Not that you would know that on here...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46463319