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TACTICAL VOTING AT THE 1997 GENERAL ELECTION – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.

    (Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)

    Why all the hate for Biden this morning?

    His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.

    His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.

    What he said.

    Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.

    I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.

    The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.

    And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
    Pity Johnson and his merry band were best chums with all the baddies , sold them golden passports, provided teh laundry and filled their own pockets with bucketloads of dodgy money. Hard to imagine they were at all unbiased.
    "Tier 1 investor visas were introduced in 2008 to encourage rich people from outside the EU to invest in the UK." Thank you Gordon Brown.

    The number issued peaked in 2014 at 1,172 - during that, er, "golden age of government" with the LibDems in coalition. Not that you would know that on here...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46463319
    Under the coalition, Theresa May was in charge of the Home Office. LDs couldn't be everywhere.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority

    The HO can apparently put applicants in a queue for it. What they didn't mention is that they throw the existing visa application in the bin at the same time. Or maybe the queue doesn't really exist. Who knows? Certainly not the HO.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757

    IanB2 said:

    agingjb2 said:

    I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.

    Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
    Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
    I have my criticisms of the LD campaign, but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as you or @IanB2. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    Re your comment about understanding Swindon was front and centre, if I may ask, what is your source? I have heard numerous times in numerous campaigns over decades from Tories who clearly think LD politicians have far more input to campaigns than is in fact the case, often to a ludicrous extent. LD campaigns are usually run by campaigners not the politicians.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I expect more LD tactical voting for Labour now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as there was in 1997 after Blair replaced Kinnock. There was already a lot of Labour tactical voting for the LDs in 2019 anyway

    Labour may also gain a bit from additional tactical voting by Tories in Scotland too in constituencies where they are clearly the leading unionist candidate. They are the closest Unionist party in my consituency of Dundee West, for example (albeit not particularly close) but there is no way on God's earth that I or anyone like me was ever going to vote for Corbyn whose stupidity was his only defence to a charge of treason.
    You think Dross of many faces and principles or millionaire Sarwar are better than Corbyn?
  • Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
    Boris has been in plenty of tight spaces in his career but I suspect this will be a very difficult one for him to escape from. It's tricky. He wants the war to be his Falklands moment. But if the war is over quickly then attention can turn quickly to his personal travails.
    I see no signs of this war ending anytime soon

    Indeed it seems to be getting worse with missile attacks near the Polish border, threats of chemical warfare, and many more refugees fleeing Ukraine
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    You forgot to add Gavin Williamson.
    That's Sir Gavin to you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.

    On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?

    If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn.
    Plenty of badgers round here. Last summer they dug a latrine in the middle of the grass. I do my best now to have an evening “badger piss” somewhere on the fence line, as the only effective deterrent I could find on google.
    We have had an extensive cull round here nd as a result I haven't seen a badger in a couple of years. (The hedgehogs though say "Yay!"). Before that, they used to rip up a field behind the house every August. Looked like half of it had been ploughed. I was told the trick to stop them doing this was to throw handfuls of peanuts on the field. They don't need to disturb the turf to find them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    edited March 2022
    Dura_Ace said:



    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority

    The HO can apparently put applicants in a queue for it. What they didn't mention is that they throw the existing visa application in the bin at the same time. Or maybe the queue doesn't really exist. Who knows? Certainly not the HO.
    About the only faintly reassuring thing about this series of posts, tragic as they are, is that it's not only the DfE who are a bunch of useless drug addled Oedipus complexers.

    However, that does make me think the options I'm getting for online tutoring in North America are rather more attractive than working for the government especially given the latest attempts to swindle me out of my pension.

    Very much hope that Mrs DA's plan works and that they can come on to you. Are they friends or are you working with a charity? Either way, respect and best wishes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    #Russia imposes curfew, bans weapons and protests in occupied towns. Breaking it will be "strictly punished" by the "military law enforcement." https://t.co/ezH86f12II

    Give it a few weeks and they might be doing the same in the motherland. What odds of somewhere like Vladivostok or a forgotten city that few have heard of being the spark for regime change?
    That would be unusual in Russia. Normally it's trouble in the capital that does for the leadership - Petrograd March 1917 for the Tsar, Petrograd and Moscow November 1917 for Kerensky's Provisional Government, and Moscow 1991 for the Communists.

    I mean, there was rioting in many other cities as well in 1991, but it was Moscow that was the killer punch.
    Turnout so far for the antiwar protests seems more modest than last week. Moscow at 1100 our time will be the test of how much resistance we will see.

    "Only about 100 people gathered in Irkutsk for an anti-war protest, despite a call for national protests at 2 pm from Navalny. About 20 were detained."

    https://twitter.com/Activatica/status/1502912455764234244?t=2VJHE-c8_u0ufp2luEE-uw&s=19
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    kle4 said:

    PB whipping boys (& girls) today so far: Biden, Corbyn, Merkel, Swinson. Excited to see who else will be added!

    Boris.
    I suppose BJ (along with Biden) possesses that vital qualification of actually being in charge of stuff currently, so is a boy that deserves to be whipped. His legendary modesty and reluctance to take credit for that stuff when it doesn’t turn out to be a shit show may provide some cover.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.

    (Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)

    Why all the hate for Biden this morning?

    His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.

    His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.

    What he said.

    Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.

    I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.

    The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.

    And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
    Pity Johnson and his merry band were best chums with all the baddies , sold them golden passports, provided teh laundry and filled their own pockets with bucketloads of dodgy money. Hard to imagine they were at all unbiased.
    "Tier 1 investor visas were introduced in 2008 to encourage rich people from outside the EU to invest in the UK." Thank you Gordon Brown.

    The number issued peaked in 2014 at 1,172 - during that, er, "golden age of government" with the LibDems in coalition. Not that you would know that on here...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46463319
    I don't think that government paid a Russian company nearly 3m quid to install technology in Downing Street

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/russian-owned-megahertz-downing-street-media-refit_uk_604e42c0c5b672fce4ed8649
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
    Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
    Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.

    And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
    Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference

    Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
    "Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.

    Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
    You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
    We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
    The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon

    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
    I wouldn't soil my hands with their money.
    Is the sponsorship registration scheme up and running @Dura_Ace? If so, do you have a link?
    We had an existing visa application that the HO are converting to the sponsorship scheme as of last week so fuck knows.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    You forgot to add Gavin Williamson.
    That's Sir Gavin to you.
    Actually to me it's 'useless c***face' but I thought OGH would prefer 'Gavin Williamson.'
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,152

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    You forgot to add Gavin Williamson.
    That's Sir Gavin to you.
    It's amazing how much contempt you can put into saying "Sir", and not just if you are a scrotty teenager.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    agingjb2 said:

    I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.

    Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
    Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
    I have my criticisms of the LD campaign, but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as you or @IanB2. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    Re your comment about understanding Swindon was front and centre, if I may ask, what is your source? I have heard numerous times in numerous campaigns over decades from Tories who clearly think LD politicians have far more input to campaigns than is in fact the case, often to a ludicrous extent. LD campaigns are usually run by campaigners not the politicians.
    "Swinson was hampered by having less than five months between winning the party leadership and the election, her decision to immediately seek a new party chief executive undermined decision-making structures.

    “This had the unintended consequence creating an ‘inner circle’ of advisers at arm’s length from the resources of the party machine, and put decision-making in the hands of an unaccountable group around the leader,” the [Dorothy Thornhill] report says. “It also severed some people from the roles and responsibilities they were employed to do, and led to the overpromotion of others.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/lib-dem-election-campaign-a-car-crash-says-partys-review
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
    Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
    Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.

    And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
    Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference

    Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
    "Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.

    Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
    You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
    We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
    The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon

    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
    Unfortunately I would not be holding my breath on this one, they are good at pontificating and absolutely useless at actually doing what they say they will do. I expect more issues will turn up to mean little to no-one gets here.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    kle4 said:

    Russians occupying southern city of Kherson are reportedly trying to call a referendum to establish a new statelet: Kherson National Republic (like DNR and LNR).

    Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine


    https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502879082987593733

    It bears noting just how brazen the Russians are being. They know it doesnt fool anyone since the idea it is every Ukraininan cities dream to be an 'independent peoples republic' is just barmy.

    It also really undermines attempts to find a painful compromise for Ukraine around Donbas, since it would demonstrate the Russians wont stop at Donbas and Crimea - they will March in and declare further new 'states' at will, making the idea of conceding those areas as price for peace false.
    Indeed this is the fundamental flaw in the Nick Palmer way of thinking. The Russians aren't there because of a refusal to recognise Donbass/Crimea. Nato membership horrifies them because it means their threats against Ukraine are likely to fall on deaf ears. This is a mafia state. These people are gangsters. Their method is extortion. You either stand up to them or submit to their wishes. A long term negotiated settlement is for the birds.
    And because they are gangsters running a Mafia/Security state the military has to be kept weak so they don’t become an alternative power base/ threat.

    Long thread:

    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797

    Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
    Boris has been in plenty of tight spaces in his career but I suspect this will be a very difficult one for him to escape from. It's tricky. He wants the war to be his Falklands moment. But if the war is over quickly then attention can turn quickly to his personal travails.
    I see no signs of this war ending anytime soon

    Indeed it seems to be getting worse with missile attacks near the Polish border, threats of chemical warfare, and many more refugees fleeing Ukraine
    Russia is sustaining very large casualties They are having big issues with resupplying their forces who were not prepared for a long war. They're also facing a financial calamity and the question arises how much longer Putin can keep funding his war and security state. At the same time we don't really know the Ukrainian position. Their losses are probably a lot bigger than they've let on (understandably). The humanitarian position could easily get to a point where they have to surrender. I wouldn't blame them. But we'd have to give them promises that we will tighten the screws on Putin until they get their country back.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.

    (Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)

    Why all the hate for Biden this morning?

    His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.

    His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.

    What he said.

    Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.

    I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.

    The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.

    And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
    Pity Johnson and his merry band were best chums with all the baddies , sold them golden passports, provided teh laundry and filled their own pockets with bucketloads of dodgy money. Hard to imagine they were at all unbiased.
    "Tier 1 investor visas were introduced in 2008 to encourage rich people from outside the EU to invest in the UK." Thank you Gordon Brown.

    The number issued peaked in 2014 at 1,172 - during that, er, "golden age of government" with the LibDems in coalition. Not that you would know that on here...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46463319
    Mark, two cheeks of the same arse I am afraid. There is a cigarette paper difference between Labour and Tories.
  • Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
    Boris has been in plenty of tight spaces in his career but I suspect this will be a very difficult one for him to escape from. It's tricky. He wants the war to be his Falklands moment. But if the war is over quickly then attention can turn quickly to his personal travails.
    I see no signs of this war ending anytime soon

    Indeed it seems to be getting worse with missile attacks near the Polish border, threats of chemical warfare, and many more refugees fleeing Ukraine
    Russia is sustaining very large casualties They are having big issues with resupplying their forces who were not prepared for a long war. They're also facing a financial calamity and the question arises how much longer Putin can keep funding his war and security state. At the same time we don't really know the Ukrainian position. Their losses are probably a lot bigger than they've let on (understandably). The humanitarian position could easily get to a point where they have to surrender. I wouldn't blame them. But we'd have to give them promises that we will tighten the screws on Putin until they get their country back.
    Ukrainian's will not surrender
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.

    On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?

    If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn.
    Plenty of badgers round here. Last summer they dug a latrine in the middle of the grass. I do my best now to have an evening “badger piss” somewhere on the fence line, as the only effective deterrent I could find on google.
    We have had an extensive cull round here nd as a result I haven't seen a badger in a couple of years. (The hedgehogs though say "Yay!"). Before that, they used to rip up a field behind the house every August. Looked like half of it had been ploughed. I was told the trick to stop them doing this was to throw handfuls of peanuts on the field. They don't need to disturb the turf to find them.
    A good tip.

    Yes it does seem unfortunate that we have forgotten why culling badgers was necessary. We lost the apex predators on these shores and to keep the ecosystem in balance had to do the job of culling ourselves. Pity the poor hedgehogs now large parts of the country are overrun by badgers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    Russians occupying southern city of Kherson are reportedly trying to call a referendum to establish a new statelet: Kherson National Republic (like DNR and LNR).

    Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine


    https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502879082987593733

    No doubt the sham will be part of Putin’s negotiation for territory should peace talks ever seriously get underway.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    IanB2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:

    Highland Central LD 9.8%
    Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0%
    Argyll LD 9.2%

    Like snow off a dyke.

    That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.

    As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
    I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
    I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
    Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
    Have you been to Chesterfield and Mansfield?! They're not chalk and cheese, but, well, I'd rather be in Chesterfield.
    Yes, I know Chesterfield well. I agree they're different, but not by all that much.

    Many years ago I helped out at the Chesterfield by-election, and back then it wasn't fertile territory for the LibDems; you couldn't imagine the LibDems winning there. Yet eventually they did.
    They got a decent second place in 1984. But it probably needs Labour to be in government for the Lib Dems to have a chance of winning a seat off Labour.
  • malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
    Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
    Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.

    And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
    Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference

    Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
    "Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.

    Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
    You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
    We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
    The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon

    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
    Unfortunately I would not be holding my breath on this one, they are good at pontificating and absolutely useless at actually doing what they say they will do. I expect more issues will turn up to mean little to no-one gets here.
    Patel yes, Gove is a different matter and this scheme will address the issues
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    agingjb2 said:

    I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.

    Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
    Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
    I have my criticisms of the LD campaign, but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as you or @IanB2. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    Re your comment about understanding Swindon was front and centre, if I may ask, what is your source? I have heard numerous times in numerous campaigns over decades from Tories who clearly think LD politicians have far more input to campaigns than is in fact the case, often to a ludicrous extent. LD campaigns are usually run by campaigners not the politicians.
    "Swinson was hampered by having less than five months between winning the party leadership and the election, her decision to immediately seek a new party chief executive undermined decision-making structures.

    “This had the unintended consequence creating an ‘inner circle’ of advisers at arm’s length from the resources of the party machine, and put decision-making in the hands of an unaccountable group around the leader,” the [Dorothy Thornhill] report says. “It also severed some people from the roles and responsibilities they were employed to do, and led to the overpromotion of others.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/lib-dem-election-campaign-a-car-crash-says-partys-review
    fact she had an unrealistic opinion of her abilities and was useless did not help.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.

    (Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)

    Why all the hate for Biden this morning?

    His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.

    His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.

    What he said.

    Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.

    I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.

    The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.

    And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
    Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.

    It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
    I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
    Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582503/Trump-says-let-situation-Ukraine-continue-slams-paper-tiger-NATO.html
    Donald T says a lot of things when out campaigning - remember the wall that Mexico was going to pay for....
    Trump is full of shit.
    If he wasn't he would be an empty vessel.
    So Trump must be a toilet. Yes, I would agree with that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
    Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
    Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.

    And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
    Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference

    Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
    "Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.

    Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
    You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
    We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
    The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon

    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
    I wouldn't soil my hands with their money.
    Is the sponsorship registration scheme up and running @Dura_Ace? If so, do you have a link?
    We had an existing visa application that the HO are converting to the sponsorship scheme as of last week so fuck knows.
    Ok thanks - good luck.

    Mrs P and I are seriously thinking of offering a place - we've never done anything like that before but... if not now, when?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    stjohn said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.

    (Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)

    Why all the hate for Biden this morning?

    His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.

    His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.

    What he said.

    Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.

    I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.

    The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.

    And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
    Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.

    It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
    I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
    Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582503/Trump-says-let-situation-Ukraine-continue-slams-paper-tiger-NATO.html
    Donald T says a lot of things when out campaigning - remember the wall that Mexico was going to pay for....
    Trump is full of shit.
    If he wasn't he would be an empty vessel.
    So Trump must be a toilet. Yes, I would agree with that.
    Although, I'm not sure he's as flush as he likes to make out.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
    Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
    Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.

    And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
    Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference

    Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
    "Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.

    Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
    You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
    We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
    The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon

    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
    Unfortunately I would not be holding my breath on this one, they are good at pontificating and absolutely useless at actually doing what they say they will do. I expect more issues will turn up to mean little to no-one gets here.
    Patel yes, Gove is a different matter and this scheme will address the issues
    G, I admire your optimism in putting any faith in the odious , self seeking , lying , cheating , unprincipled, lying Gove. I doubt your post will age well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
    Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
    Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.

    And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
    Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference

    Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
    "Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.

    Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
    You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
    We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
    The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon

    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
    Unfortunately I would not be holding my breath on this one, they are good at pontificating and absolutely useless at actually doing what they say they will do. I expect more issues will turn up to mean little to no-one gets here.
    Patel yes, Gove is a different matter and this scheme will address the issues
    G, I admire your optimism in putting any faith in the odious , self seeking , lying , cheating , unprincipled, lying Gove. I doubt your post will age well.
    I have to agree with Malc here. Gove is usually one to look out for the inflexible dogma that leads to unfortunate outcomes under the law of unintended consequences.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677


    Ok thanks - good luck.

    Mrs P and I are seriously thinking of offering a place - we've never done anything like that before but... if not now, when?

    We have some existing connection to "our" refugees. They are the daughters of a friend of a friend.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    moonshine said:

    And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.

    On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?

    A stray sh*t from cow that jumped over the moon, maybe?
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    Oh enough of your "Brexit will fuck up Europe" bollocks. We have been at the front of protecting Ukraine, before and after the Referendum. Brexit has not remotely impacted our ability to Do The Right Thing. In many ways, it has robbed Germany of an excuse - and it has now had to stand up and have its defence budget counted.
    Our response on refugees has been absolutely pathetic and that is a direct result of being outside the EU.
    Angela Merkel's response to refugees is a direct consequence of our being outside the EU.

    And yes, our response has been absolutely pathetic, period.
    Finally the cabinet sidelined the dreadful Patel and Gove is making a positive difference

    Actually he has just said on Sky that more than 3,000 visas have now been granted
    "Our" Ukranian refugees (15 and 17 year old unaccompanied females) are stuck in Rotterdam and the Home Office are absolutely useless. Everyone you speak to has a different idea of what the rules are and are incompetent at implementing even their own concept of them.

    Mrs DA is considering driving to the Netherlands to get them with an immigration lawyer actually in the car to plead their case. This whole visa system would be an utter disgrace even if it were competently administered but this tory government can't even do that and compounds outright callousness with disorganised stupidity.
    You should register tomorrow with the sponsorship scheme so they can come to the UK without a visa
    We've done that. Apparently there has been an "unfortunate miscommunication" regarding the case.
    The scheme is not on line until tomorrow but hope your issues are resolved soon

    It seems £350 per month will be paid to those taking refugees plus £10,000 per refugee to the local authority
    Unfortunately I would not be holding my breath on this one, they are good at pontificating and absolutely useless at actually doing what they say they will do. I expect more issues will turn up to mean little to no-one gets here.
    Patel yes, Gove is a different matter and this scheme will address the issues
    G, I admire your optimism in putting any faith in the odious , self seeking , lying , cheating , unprincipled, lying Gove. I doubt your post will age well.
    Irrespective we must hope it does succeed
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    edited March 2022
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I expect more LD tactical voting for Labour now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as there was in 1997 after Blair replaced Kinnock. There was already a lot of Labour tactical voting for the LDs in 2019 anyway

    Labour may also gain a bit from additional tactical voting by Tories in Scotland too in constituencies where they are clearly the leading unionist candidate. They are the closest Unionist party in my consituency of Dundee West, for example (albeit not particularly close) but there is no way on God's earth that I or anyone like me was ever going to vote for Corbyn whose stupidity was his only defence to a charge of treason.
    You think Dross of many faces and principles or millionaire Sarwar are better than Corbyn?
    Do you mean Dross the leader of the Scottish Conservatives who along with his party showed such principle in calling out the amoral dustbin that is our PM? I’m a bit worried that something has happened to him as he seems to have dropped off the radar as far as PB Unionists are concerned.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Not the worst idea for a new symbol of opposition.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786
    Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    stjohn said:

    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    America is undoubtedly weaker now under Joe Biden.

    (Which when you consider the chaos of his predecessor is quite remarkable.)

    Why all the hate for Biden this morning?

    His policy on Ukraine is identical to ours and the EU: supply arms, intelligence and economic support, but no direct military involvement.

    His policy on the Afghan withdrawal was Trump's policy, already underway when he took over, having been prevented from having a transitional handover. We scuttled out too.

    What he said.

    Odd how those who profess to despise the “strong man” (sic) of Russia seem to hanker after one in the US.

    I have no doubt that Biden has been instrumental in getting the Western coalition to cooperate across such a wide range of measures - including getting a leading member to dump decades of foreign policy literally almost overnight.

    The chances of someone like Trump achieving as much? Pretty close to zero.

    And yes, the UK has played a leading role - mainly by having been right about Russia and acting on that basis for much longer than most western powers. Johnson has been a good frontman for a policy which well preceded him.
    Indeed, what Biden is good at is organising support into a coalition. That was his role in Senate and as VP.

    It's times like this that I am relieved that Trump is sulking in Florida rather than the White House. What would it be like with him in charge? Would he still be cheerleading for Putin, or be bombing Moscow? More likely he would revert to type and American Isolationism.
    I'm genuinely very worried now about Trump winning in 2024. Previously it was more a case of just really hoping he didn't because he's so odious, now it could truly harm people globally.
    Trump has now said the US 'can't stand by over Ukraine.' Suggesting he might take a harder line than Biden

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10582503/Trump-says-let-situation-Ukraine-continue-slams-paper-tiger-NATO.html
    Donald T says a lot of things when out campaigning - remember the wall that Mexico was going to pay for....
    Trump is full of shit.
    If he wasn't he would be an empty vessel.
    So Trump must be a toilet. Yes, I would agree with that.
    Although, I'm not sure he's as flush as he likes to make out.
    Or straight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1502936767833456643
    Russian troops in Melitopol announce with loudspeakers that rallies are banned in the city after daily protests against the occupation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    Fingers crossed.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:

    Highland Central LD 9.8%
    Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0%
    Argyll LD 9.2%

    Like snow off a dyke.

    That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.

    As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
    I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
    I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
    Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
    Sorry for the slow reply. My mum is from near Chesterfield and I would say they are quite different. Chesterfield has some quite posh areas which are/were fertile for the Lib Dems.
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Edge Hill (demographic when won)
    Southwark (demographic when won)
    Lots of rock solid Tory seats from nothing in by elections.

    If there is a plague on both houses re Con/Lab and you can convince the electorate you have a chance, anywhere is winnable.

    I gave an example earlier. No members, no supporters, no deliverers, etc etc. Threw resources in and won. Most challenging bit was getting signatures on nomination paper. Rest was down to throwing resources at it. Big win, never close before. Turned it into a marginal. Only just held in following all up election. Other 2 candidates also just missed being elected, whereas before they would not be close. Ward became split and has since flipped back and forth. If we stop working it, it will revert to solid Tory.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.

    On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?

    If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn.
    Plenty of badgers round here. Last summer they dug a latrine in the middle of the grass. I do my best now to have an evening “badger piss” somewhere on the fence line, as the only effective deterrent I could find on google.
    We have had an extensive cull round here nd as a result I haven't seen a badger in a couple of years. (The hedgehogs though say "Yay!"). Before that, they used to rip up a field behind the house every August. Looked like half of it had been ploughed. I was told the trick to stop them doing this was to throw handfuls of peanuts on the field. They don't need to disturb the turf to find them.

    What I see far less of in South Devon than in Warwickshire is magpies.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    These seem to be just repeats of current optimistic talking points rather than particularly informed insights. I’ve not kept up, has FF ever recovered from The End of History?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    edited March 2022
    My personal Doomsday Clock* has moved back 30 seconds or so during the past week. Last week I was feeling very despondent, making our (very limited) post-apocalypse plans.

    This week, for no very clear reasons, I feel a nuclear holocaust is marginally less likely. If anyone can offer and concrete reasons to support this view, I'd appreciate it. If the opposite, please keep them to yourselves.

    (*The actual Doomsday Clock seems a very poor tracker of the risk imo; how did it not dip to one second to midnight during the Cuban Missile Crisis?)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Breaking: Russian aviation hit in a significant way again - this time, by Bermuda. Bermuda revokes the licenses of 745 Russian aircraft (that’s 50% of Russia’s airline fleet).

    Note: Majority of aircraft flying for Russian airlines are registered in Bermuda for tax avoidance.


    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1502933647783043080

    Second part of the tweet is partial. The main reasons they are registered in Bermuda is the lease holders insist because if they were registered in Russia they would become unleasable after the Russian airlines had finished with them, no one trusting Russian maintenance oversight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    agingjb2 said:

    I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.

    Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
    Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
    I have my criticisms of the LD campaign, but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as you or @IanB2. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    Re your comment about understanding Swindon was front and centre, if I may ask, what is your source? I have heard numerous times in numerous campaigns over decades from Tories who clearly think LD politicians have far more input to campaigns than is in fact the case, often to a ludicrous extent. LD campaigns are usually run by campaigners not the politicians.
    Members of the other parties don't always appreciate the extent to which the LDs are less centralised than what they are used to. Also remember that Swinson was at the time only in her late 30s and didn't have the experience or gravitas to challenge her older advisors. The circle around her clearly thought that being young and female would by itself somehow make a big impact with voters, when pitched up against Corbyn and Johnson, whereas in the event personality, policy and messaging trumped identity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not the worst idea for a new symbol of opposition.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786
    Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022.

    In 1952 the NKVD challenged an 84 year old man for carrying a banner outside the Kremlin saying 'Thank you Comrade Stalin for my happy childhood.'

    They pointed out Stalin wasn't even born when he was a child.

    They got the immortal reply, 'That's what made it so happy.'
    Brilliant!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    edited March 2022
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:

    Highland Central LD 9.8%
    Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0%
    Argyll LD 9.2%

    Like snow off a dyke.

    That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.

    As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
    I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
    I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
    Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
    Sorry for the slow reply. My mum is from near Chesterfield and I would say they are quite different. Chesterfield has some quite posh areas which are/were fertile for the Lib Dems.
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Edge Hill (demographic when won)
    Southwark (demographic when won)
    Lots of rock solid Tory seats from nothing in by elections.

    If there is a plague on both houses re Con/Lab and you can convince the electorate you have a chance, anywhere is winnable.

    I gave an example earlier. No members, no supporters, no deliverers, etc etc. Threw resources in and won. Most challenging bit was getting signatures on nomination paper. Rest was down to throwing resources at it. Big win, never close before. Turned it into a marginal. Only just held in following all up election. Other 2 candidates also just missed being elected, whereas before they would not be close. Ward became split and has since flipped back and forth. If we stop working it, it will revert to solid Tory.
    Which was essentially my point. The LibDems suffer from a low core but enjoy a high ceiling - said enjoyment punctuated by the coalition and not regained until relatively recently. It's why Labour has less chance of winning some Tory seats from second than the LibDems do in the same seats from third; take away everyone who would never vote Labour and there aren't enough voters left in these places to be able to win, even in the best imaginable year. My own seat of the IOW, where Labour is now second, is a good example. The only realistic non-Tory winner nowadays is the Green, but with Labour in second they aren't going to get the tactical support they'd need.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    kle4 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    Fingers crossed.
    Wow. What a set of predictions. Please let him be right on these. I don't know much about Fukuyama. But from the little I do know, his "The End of History" call hasn't panned out quite as he foresaw.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    I was struck by that and I hope he's right. He's very emotionally invested in Ukraine though. He's done a lot of work with Ukraine's new breed of politicians and officials. We sneer at 'The End Of History'. Places like Ukraine do not.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.

    On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?

    If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn.
    Plenty of badgers round here. Last summer they dug a latrine in the middle of the grass. I do my best now to have an evening “badger piss” somewhere on the fence line, as the only effective deterrent I could find on google.
    We have had an extensive cull round here nd as a result I haven't seen a badger in a couple of years. (The hedgehogs though say "Yay!"). Before that, they used to rip up a field behind the house every August. Looked like half of it had been ploughed. I was told the trick to stop them doing this was to throw handfuls of peanuts on the field. They don't need to disturb the turf to find them.
    A good tip.

    Yes it does seem unfortunate that we have forgotten why culling badgers was necessary. We lost the apex predators on these shores and to keep the ecosystem in balance had to do the job of culling ourselves. Pity the poor hedgehogs now large parts of the country are overrun by badgers.
    In our last house we had a wood at the end of the garden, and after we'd been there about twenty years we started to get badgers visiting the garden; we fed them all sorts of things and they never damaged the lawn.
    I never found the sett itself; the wood was private property. I often think that if we hadn't moved I could have put together a contract with the BBC or someone for wildlife filming!

    It's the one thing I miss about living there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not the worst idea for a new symbol of opposition.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786
    Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022.

    In 1952 the NKVD challenged an 84 year old man for carrying a banner outside the Kremlin saying 'Thank you Comrade Stalin for my happy childhood.'

    They pointed out Stalin wasn't even born when he was a child.

    They got the immortal reply, 'That's what made it so happy.'
    Thanks, I'll remember that for Johnson's fifth term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Today, Russian war criminals abducted another democratically elected Ukrainian mayor, head of Dniprorudne Yevhen Matveyev. Getting zero local support, invaders turn to terror. I call on all states & international organizations to stop Russian terror against Ukraine and democracy.
    https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1502945209159761923
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.

    On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?

    If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn.
    Plenty of badgers round here. Last summer they dug a latrine in the middle of the grass. I do my best now to have an evening “badger piss” somewhere on the fence line, as the only effective deterrent I could find on google.
    We have had an extensive cull round here nd as a result I haven't seen a badger in a couple of years. (The hedgehogs though say "Yay!"). Before that, they used to rip up a field behind the house every August. Looked like half of it had been ploughed. I was told the trick to stop them doing this was to throw handfuls of peanuts on the field. They don't need to disturb the turf to find them.

    What I see far less of in South Devon than in Warwickshire is magpies.

    They are around in modest numbers. We have lots of hedges still, so perhaps not as obvious as they are in the prairies of Warwickshire!

    The only place I have ever seen a "magpie wedding" though was near Newport, Shropshire. Early evening, 200+ in one field.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    Interesting analysis - many thanks, Tom.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,678
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    agingjb2 said:

    I wonder if the loss of Paddy Ashdown meant that Jo Swinson lacked the advice of a restraining mentor.

    Almost every call the LibDems made during that election was wrong, from the holding of it through the messaging down to the campaigning. You can't pin it all on Swinson - although undoubtedly she was a poor leader, chosen almost entirely because of her gender - and her relative youth and experience meant that she didn't have the clout to block bad decisions being made back at HQ.
    Very generous. As I understood it, Swinson was front and centre to those bad decisions.
    I have my criticisms of the LD campaign, but I wouldn't go anywhere near as far as you or @IanB2. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    Re your comment about understanding Swindon was front and centre, if I may ask, what is your source? I have heard numerous times in numerous campaigns over decades from Tories who clearly think LD politicians have far more input to campaigns than is in fact the case, often to a ludicrous extent. LD campaigns are usually run by campaigners not the politicians.
    Members of the other parties don't always appreciate the extent to which the LDs are less centralised than what they are used to. Also remember that Swinson was at the time only in her late 30s and didn't have the experience or gravitas to challenge her older advisors. The circle around her clearly thought that being young and female would by itself somehow make a big impact with voters, when pitched up against Corbyn and Johnson, whereas in the event personality, policy and messaging trumped identity.
    But also, the Lib Dem campaign was almost all one issue, expressed in a way to alienate as many voters as possible.
    Weeks 1-4: Bollocks to Brexit
    Week 5: Let's see how many people we can annoy with our highly detailed transsexuals policy.
    Week 6: Bollocks to Brexit.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not the worst idea for a new symbol of opposition.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786
    Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022.

    In 1952 the NKVD challenged an 84 year old man for carrying a banner outside the Kremlin saying 'Thank you Comrade Stalin for my happy childhood.'

    They pointed out Stalin wasn't even born when he was a child.

    They got the immortal reply, 'That's what made it so happy.'
    As a fellow pedant I hope you would welcome the observation that the NKVD had rebranded by 1952.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    stjohn said:

    kle4 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    Fingers crossed.
    Wow. What a set of predictions. Please let him be right on these. I don't know much about Fukuyama. But from the little I do know, his "The End of History" call hasn't panned out quite as he foresaw.
    Funnily enough from behind the Times paywall.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-end-of-history-francis-fukuyama-was-right-all-along-jh9pdzb2k

    Having read it for the first time last year I thought it was brilliant. Clearly many critics have never bothered to do so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    stjohn said:

    kle4 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    Fingers crossed.
    Wow. What a set of predictions. Please let him be right on these. I don't know much about Fukuyama. But from the little I do know, his "The End of History" call hasn't panned out quite as he foresaw.
    I'm more optimisitc about human nature that might sometimes seem to be the case, but not when it comes to state composition.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:

    Highland Central LD 9.8%
    Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0%
    Argyll LD 9.2%

    Like snow off a dyke.

    That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.

    As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
    I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
    I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
    Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
    Sorry for the slow reply. My mum is from near Chesterfield and I would say they are quite different. Chesterfield has some quite posh areas which are/were fertile for the Lib Dems.
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Edge Hill (demographic when won)
    Southwark (demographic when won)
    Lots of rock solid Tory seats from nothing in by elections.

    If there is a plague on both houses re Con/Lab and you can convince the electorate you have a chance, anywhere is winnable.

    I gave an example earlier. No members, no supporters, no deliverers, etc etc. Threw resources in and won. Most challenging bit was getting signatures on nomination paper. Rest was down to throwing resources at it. Big win, never close before. Turned it into a marginal. Only just held in following all up election. Other 2 candidates also just missed being elected, whereas before they would not be close. Ward became split and has since flipped back and forth. If we stop working it, it will revert to solid Tory.
    Which was essentially my point. The LibDems suffer from a low core but enjoy a high ceiling - said enjoyment punctuated by the coalition and not regained until relatively recently. It's why Labour has less chance of winning some Tory seats from second than the LibDems do in the same seats from third; take away everyone who would never vote Labour and there aren't enough voters left in these places to be able to win, even in the best imaginable year. My own seat of the IOW, where Labour is now second, is a good example.
    Agee 100% Agree re IOW (of course). JRM seat is another example we have argued about on PB before. LD could win it, Lab can't. It is an issue if any informal deal can be done between Lab and LDs because some Lab activists will not see this logic if they are in 2nd place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    edited March 2022

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    I was struck by that and I hope he's right. He's very emotionally invested in Ukraine though. He's done a lot of work with Ukraine's new breed of politicians and officials. We sneer at 'The End Of History'. Places like Ukraine do not.
    He's probably right on this one:

    There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

    And on these two, we can only hope:

    The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.

    Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?




    He also makes the point that NATO staying away from an NFZ not only avoids escalation but down the road will deprive the Russians of a potential excuse for their (predicted) defeat.
  • The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)

    We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU

    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-boris-johnson-to-host-summit-with-nordic-and-baltic-leaders-to-deter-russian-aggression-12564716

    I totally agree. The way forward is for much closer cooperation with the EU, without the need to rejoin. I wonder what the ERG feels about this, though.

    I genuinely believe the ERG will be marginalised by circumstances and if not then GE24 is lost to the conservatives

    It really is time to move beyond Brexit. That needs realism from all parties. We need to be cooperating closely with the EU on key issues, such as security and energy; while at a time of mounting global uncertainty, we may also want to look again at whether greater access to a single market of 400 million people that is literally on our doorstep might be a good idea. None of which means we must or even should rejoin the EU.

    We are absolutely on the same page
    As am I - an a lot of people also are on this page. So the question remains why neither the ruling party nor the official opposition are yet there. Both seem to be held captive by the referendum war - the Tories are still trying to portray the EUSSR as the Big Bad, Labour in hoc to petty-minded bigots who think we have to keep the forrin out even if they are women and children fleeing for their lives.

    When we come out of this Ukraine crisis we will find a world where alliances are more valuable than ever and with both NATO and the EU strengthened by it. Several EU countries aren't in NATO and feel vulnerable enough to be reconsidering that position. If the UK is sensible it will reconsider its EU position so that we stop attacking them and become partners again like Norway.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I expect more LD tactical voting for Labour now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as there was in 1997 after Blair replaced Kinnock. There was already a lot of Labour tactical voting for the LDs in 2019 anyway

    Labour may also gain a bit from additional tactical voting by Tories in Scotland too in constituencies where they are clearly the leading unionist candidate. They are the closest Unionist party in my consituency of Dundee West, for example (albeit not particularly close) but there is no way on God's earth that I or anyone like me was ever going to vote for Corbyn whose stupidity was his only defence to a charge of treason.
    You think Dross of many faces and principles or millionaire Sarwar are better than Corbyn?
    Do you mean Dross the leader of the Scottish Conservatives who along with his party showed such principle in calling out the amoral dustbin that is our PM? I’m a bit worried that something has happened to him as he seems to have dropped off the radar as far as PB Unionists are concerned.
    went from bumping his gums constantly to being invisible for last month, usual practice from these liars.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not the worst idea for a new symbol of opposition.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786
    Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022.

    In 1952 the NKVD challenged an 84 year old man for carrying a banner outside the Kremlin saying 'Thank you Comrade Stalin for my happy childhood.'

    They pointed out Stalin wasn't even born when he was a child.

    They got the immortal reply, 'That's what made it so happy.'
    I assume his reply was more immortal than he likely was after that reply.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    edited March 2022
    Delete
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    *UPDATE**

    They are Back! Russian Navy landing ships staging off Crimea

    Same last week but they returned to port. Threat of landings near Odessa, Ukraine, reduced

    But last couple of days people have been watching them gather again. Confirm LST (landing Ships).

    Nod @detresfa_


    https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1502944456777117696
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217

    stjohn said:

    kle4 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    Fingers crossed.
    Wow. What a set of predictions. Please let him be right on these. I don't know much about Fukuyama. But from the little I do know, his "The End of History" call hasn't panned out quite as he foresaw.
    Funnily enough from behind the Times paywall.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-end-of-history-francis-fukuyama-was-right-all-along-jh9pdzb2k

    Having read it for the first time last year I thought it was brilliant. Clearly many critics have never bothered to do so.
    The title was brilliantly chosen to gain attention, but equally it invites derision. I'm assuming the contents of the book go beyond the, "History has now ended, and we can look forward to a boring future of unending prosperity and banal disputes of personality and pedantry," implied by the title - which rather implies that the title was awful as a guide to the contents.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    p.s. and most optimistically, as a counter to any Sean-type doom-mongering:

    A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    A less optimistic view than Fukuyama's

    'Putin and Trump have convinced me: I was wrong about the 21st century
    Robert Reich'

    https://tinyurl.com/5n7zh5t9
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833

    The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)

    We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU

    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-boris-johnson-to-host-summit-with-nordic-and-baltic-leaders-to-deter-russian-aggression-12564716

    I totally agree. The way forward is for much closer cooperation with the EU, without the need to rejoin. I wonder what the ERG feels about this, though.

    I genuinely believe the ERG will be marginalised by circumstances and if not then GE24 is lost to the conservatives

    It really is time to move beyond Brexit. That needs realism from all parties. We need to be cooperating closely with the EU on key issues, such as security and energy; while at a time of mounting global uncertainty, we may also want to look again at whether greater access to a single market of 400 million people that is literally on our doorstep might be a good idea. None of which means we must or even should rejoin the EU.

    We are absolutely on the same page
    As am I - an a lot of people also are on this page. So the question remains why neither the ruling party nor the official opposition are yet there. Both seem to be held captive by the referendum war - the Tories are still trying to portray the EUSSR as the Big Bad, Labour in hoc to petty-minded bigots who think we have to keep the forrin out even if they are women and children fleeing for their lives.

    When we come out of this Ukraine crisis we will find a world where alliances are more valuable than ever and with both NATO and the EU strengthened by it. Several EU countries aren't in NATO and feel vulnerable enough to be reconsidering that position. If the UK is sensible it will reconsider its EU position so that we stop attacking them and become partners again like Norway.
    Not going for Norway straight away, at least as a first step, was always the Tories' biggest mistake. During the vote itself there were plenty of leavers advocating Norway/Switzerland arrangements, but after the win hubris and the influence of the ultras has taken them, and us, to a much less helpful place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not the worst idea for a new symbol of opposition.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786
    Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022.

    In 1952 the NKVD challenged an 84 year old man for carrying a banner outside the Kremlin saying 'Thank you Comrade Stalin for my happy childhood.'

    They pointed out Stalin wasn't even born when he was a child.

    They got the immortal reply, 'That's what made it so happy.'
    As a fellow pedant I hope you would welcome the observation that the NKVD had rebranded by 1952.
    Quite right, I thought it was 1954 but it was 1946.
  • Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
    Boris has been in plenty of tight spaces in his career but I suspect this will be a very difficult one for him to escape from. It's tricky. He wants the war to be his Falklands moment. But if the war is over quickly then attention can turn quickly to his personal travails.
    I don't remember Mrs T skipping security briefings about the threat from Galtieri to fly off to party with her mate the former senior general in Galtieri's regime.

    Big Dog is up to his eyeballs in this Russian money. Which is why our actions against his friends and patrons the oligarchs have been so lackluster.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Breaking: Russian aviation hit in a significant way again - this time, by Bermuda. Bermuda revokes the licenses of 745 Russian aircraft (that’s 50% of Russia’s airline fleet).

    Note: Majority of aircraft flying for Russian airlines are registered in Bermuda for tax avoidance.


    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1502933647783043080

    Second part of the tweet is partial. The main reasons they are registered in Bermuda is the lease holders insist because if they were registered in Russia they would become unleasable after the Russian airlines had finished with them, no one trusting Russian maintenance oversight.

    I would think the short term practical effect is close to zero, as the plains can keep flying within Russia and Belorussia, but another headache to resolve when this is all over.
  • The speed of the West’s reaction to the Putin War on Ukraine is extraordinary. Corralling dozens of democracies, each with their own decision making processes, into such a united response is a major achievement. Joe Biden has played a key role in enabling it to happen. My guess is that in Europe the 2024 American presidential election is also casting a long shadow. If Trump or an acolyte wins, as seems probable, the US will not be a reliable partner.

    The complete reboot of the EU over the last month and the likelihood of an isolationist, America First, Republican President in 2025 leaves the UK in a very tricky strategic position. We’ll pretend it doesn’t, of course, but in the real world that won’t help.

    The thought of Trump is a nightmare but the idea the UK will be in a tricky position seems to be unlikely in view of this 2 day meeting in Chequers and Downing Street of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)

    We need to realise that this war has changed everything and the time for them and us is yesterday's news as we move to greater cooperation which does not necessitate UK rejoining the EU

    https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-boris-johnson-to-host-summit-with-nordic-and-baltic-leaders-to-deter-russian-aggression-12564716

    I totally agree. The way forward is for much closer cooperation with the EU, without the need to rejoin. I wonder what the ERG feels about this, though.

    I genuinely believe the ERG will be marginalised by circumstances and if not then GE24 is lost to the conservatives

    It really is time to move beyond Brexit. That needs realism from all parties. We need to be cooperating closely with the EU on key issues, such as security and energy; while at a time of mounting global uncertainty, we may also want to look again at whether greater access to a single market of 400 million people that is literally on our doorstep might be a good idea. None of which means we must or even should rejoin the EU.

    We are absolutely on the same page
    As am I - an a lot of people also are on this page. So the question remains why neither the ruling party nor the official opposition are yet there. Both seem to be held captive by the referendum war - the Tories are still trying to portray the EUSSR as the Big Bad, Labour in hoc to petty-minded bigots who think we have to keep the forrin out even if they are women and children fleeing for their lives.

    When we come out of this Ukraine crisis we will find a world where alliances are more valuable than ever and with both NATO and the EU strengthened by it. Several EU countries aren't in NATO and feel vulnerable enough to be reconsidering that position. If the UK is sensible it will reconsider its EU position so that we stop attacking them and become partners again like Norway.
    I think that in a war concentration has to be on the complexities of it but a time will come when we move into calmer waters and cooperation with the EU in all aspects is certain to follow as a direct result of the change in circumstances

    It is good that the UK has acted largely in unison with the EU, and let's hope that our desire to have a much better relationship between ourselves follows on and it is time to call out both extremes on the leave and remain sides, as they only serve to continue the division
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,217
    edited March 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    I was struck by that and I hope he's right. He's very emotionally invested in Ukraine though. He's done a lot of work with Ukraine's new breed of politicians and officials. We sneer at 'The End Of History'. Places like Ukraine do not.
    He's probably right on this one:

    There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

    And on these two, we can only hope:

    The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.

    Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?

    He also makes the point that NATO staying away from an NFZ not only avoids escalation but down the road will deprive the Russians of a potential excuse for their (predicted) defeat.
    On the final point I reluctantly came to the conclusion that was a good enough reason for us to hold back from engaging directly.

    I do think that, if Russia is defeated, because the defeat will occur wholly outside its borders, that, as with Germany after WWI, the reaction will be to create a stab in the back myth, and a new Russian leadership is likely to attempt to rebuild to have another go.

    Everyone is laughing now at the ineptness of the Russian armed forces, but the situation might look quite different in 2028, after they've had some time to rebuild, and if Western unity has dissolved following a victory for a Trumpist in 2024.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,678
    IanB2 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    I was struck by that and I hope he's right. He's very emotionally invested in Ukraine though. He's done a lot of work with Ukraine's new breed of politicians and officials. We sneer at 'The End Of History'. Places like Ukraine do not.
    He's probably right on this one:

    There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

    And on these two, we can only hope:

    The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.

    Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?




    He also makes the point that NATO staying away from an NFZ not only avoids escalation but down the road will deprive the Russians of a potential excuse for their (predicted) defeat.
    Two weeks ago I put forward a slightly tortured cricketing analogy that the Ukrainian resistance was the surprisingly spirited first innings tenth wicket stand which was the crucial difference in avoiding the follow on and giving some hope for the second innings. We weren't expecting them to survive long, but every additional day they survived made the defence of Georgia, Moldova, the Baltics, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe more possible.
    It's looking increasingly possible however that the last wicket stand in the first innings could end up with a declaration and see us go into the second innings well into the lead.
    A combination of an absolutely heroic resistance and an astonishingly incompetent attack.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    edited March 2022

    A less optimistic view than Fukuyama's

    'Putin and Trump have convinced me: I was wrong about the 21st century
    Robert Reich'

    https://tinyurl.com/5n7zh5t9

    Yes, but:

    - the Ukranians are both nationalistic and desperate to be part of the EU and NATO;
    - controlling what citizens know undoubtedly is more difficult in the digital age. Plus the globalised economy is making sanctions and bans on Russian activity more powerful.

    He's right that wars can still happen - but who has been arguing that they can't?

    His key point is the continuing need for us to defend liberal democracy. Which is the optimistic scenario that Fukuyama is offering us.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797

    stjohn said:

    kle4 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    Fingers crossed.
    Wow. What a set of predictions. Please let him be right on these. I don't know much about Fukuyama. But from the little I do know, his "The End of History" call hasn't panned out quite as he foresaw.
    Funnily enough from behind the Times paywall.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-end-of-history-francis-fukuyama-was-right-all-along-jh9pdzb2k

    Having read it for the first time last year I thought it was brilliant. Clearly many critics have never bothered to do so.
    The title was brilliantly chosen to gain attention, but equally it invites derision. I'm assuming the contents of the book go beyond the, "History has now ended, and we can look forward to a boring future of unending prosperity and banal disputes of personality and pedantry," implied by the title - which rather implies that the title was awful as a guide to the contents.
    The title was The End Of History And The Last Man.

    And the person who came up with the phrase End Of History was actually Alexander Kojeve - an EU bureaucrat
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    Pussy Riot doing their thing. They seem to have thrown in their lot with Navalny which I don't think will survie much close contact. Must confess I find the crypto and NFT stuff fluffily offputting but then I'm an auld ****.

    "Pussy Riot’s Nadya Tolokonnikova: ‘You cannot play nice with Putin. He is insane. He might open fire on his own people’"

    https://tinyurl.com/y92ber58
  • malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I expect more LD tactical voting for Labour now Starmer has replaced Corbyn as there was in 1997 after Blair replaced Kinnock. There was already a lot of Labour tactical voting for the LDs in 2019 anyway

    Labour may also gain a bit from additional tactical voting by Tories in Scotland too in constituencies where they are clearly the leading unionist candidate. They are the closest Unionist party in my consituency of Dundee West, for example (albeit not particularly close) but there is no way on God's earth that I or anyone like me was ever going to vote for Corbyn whose stupidity was his only defence to a charge of treason.
    You think Dross of many faces and principles or millionaire Sarwar are better than Corbyn?
    Do you mean Dross the leader of the Scottish Conservatives who along with his party showed such principle in calling out the amoral dustbin that is our PM? I’m a bit worried that something has happened to him as he seems to have dropped off the radar as far as PB Unionists are concerned.
    For a wee while I thought the DRoss of old had gone, replaced by Douglas Ross man of principle. But now he has returned to DRoss, withdrawing his no confidence letter and sycophanting away again. Watch him mysteriously get elevated to the Lords after he steps down.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    And so another Sunday. Things feel a bit more optimistic than they did two Sundays ago or perhaps that is just me.

    On to more important matters. In a wild bit of the garden I just found what looks like a cow pat in a place where there have certainly been no cows. What could this be? A badger or fox that has eaten daffodils and now has the squits?

    If it's a badger, you'll have holes in your lawn.
    Plenty of badgers round here. Last summer they dug a latrine in the middle of the grass. I do my best now to have an evening “badger piss” somewhere on the fence line, as the only effective deterrent I could find on google.
    We have had an extensive cull round here nd as a result I haven't seen a badger in a couple of years. (The hedgehogs though say "Yay!"). Before that, they used to rip up a field behind the house every August. Looked like half of it had been ploughed. I was told the trick to stop them doing this was to throw handfuls of peanuts on the field. They don't need to disturb the turf to find them.

    What I see far less of in South Devon than in Warwickshire is magpies.

    We have plenty to spare! Despite the sea eagles I've now seen twice, circling above the town.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,718

    Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    Amazingly virtually the whole Tory party and its voters go along with this. Not sure what the point of having security services is when the establishment party has given up on common sense.
    Boris has been in plenty of tight spaces in his career but I suspect this will be a very difficult one for him to escape from. It's tricky. He wants the war to be his Falklands moment. But if the war is over quickly then attention can turn quickly to his personal travails.
    He will get press attention yes, but the people that matter, Tory MPs and members, are either fine with it and think only winning matters or are too scared to take him on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:

    Highland Central LD 9.8%
    Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0%
    Argyll LD 9.2%

    Like snow off a dyke.

    That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.

    As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
    I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
    I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
    Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
    Sorry for the slow reply. My mum is from near Chesterfield and I would say they are quite different. Chesterfield has some quite posh areas which are/were fertile for the Lib Dems.
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Edge Hill (demographic when won)
    Southwark (demographic when won)
    Lots of rock solid Tory seats from nothing in by elections.

    If there is a plague on both houses re Con/Lab and you can convince the electorate you have a chance, anywhere is winnable.

    I gave an example earlier. No members, no supporters, no deliverers, etc etc. Threw resources in and won. Most challenging bit was getting signatures on nomination paper. Rest was down to throwing resources at it. Big win, never close before. Turned it into a marginal. Only just held in following all up election. Other 2 candidates also just missed being elected, whereas before they would not be close. Ward became split and has since flipped back and forth. If we stop working it, it will revert to solid Tory.
    Which was essentially my point. The LibDems suffer from a low core but enjoy a high ceiling - said enjoyment punctuated by the coalition and not regained until relatively recently. It's why Labour has less chance of winning some Tory seats from second than the LibDems do in the same seats from third; take away everyone who would never vote Labour and there aren't enough voters left in these places to be able to win, even in the best imaginable year. My own seat of the IOW, where Labour is now second, is a good example.
    It's a serious discussion and I understand the point. I'd question, though, whether the assumption that that dissatisfied Conservatives will never vote Labour - which was largely true under Jeremy Corbyn, fond though I am of him - is still true, partly because Starmer is obviously centrist to the extent that it's hard to see a difference to the LibDems, and partly because Davey has been more or less invisible (mostly due to the media habit of just quoting the big parties - I sympathise, but it's true). If we look at the latest poll on the YouGov website, we find that, of 2019 Conservative voters, 79% will still vote Tory, 7% will vote Labour and 2% will vote LibDem. Will the remainder be more likely to vote LD than Lab if they don't vote Con? I'm not sure the evidence suggests that that's true.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/zek1b001f5/TheTimes_VI_220309_W.pdf

    Conversely, 30% of LibDems plan to vote Labour. In the South outside London, much of which is what we think of as the Blue Wall, the figures are Con 41, Lab 31, LD 13.

    In a seat like Guildford, the position is clear for a tactical voter as the result last time was Con 45, LD 39 Lab 7 - the LDs can definitely say that tactical voters should go to them. Then there are seats like Worthing West (Con 56, Lab 29, LD 11) where frankly everyone may as well vote to show their preference as tactical voting won't be enough. But Worthing East and Shoreham was Con 51, Lab 37, LD 8. That's the sort of seat where the LibDems really oughtn't to be fighting an "only we can beat the Tories" campaign.

    Bottom line: we all need to focus, quietly compare notes, and minimise the number of seats where we're both claiming to be the natural tactical vote.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,678
    IanB2 said:

    A less optimistic view than Fukuyama's

    'Putin and Trump have convinced me: I was wrong about the 21st century
    Robert Reich'

    https://tinyurl.com/5n7zh5t9

    Yes, but:

    - the Ukranians are both nationalistic and desperate to be part of the EU and NATO;
    - controlling what citizens know undoubtedly is more difficult in the digital age. Plus the globalised economy is making sanctions and bans on Russian activity more powerful.

    He's right that wars can still happen - but who has been arguing that they can't?

    His key point is the continuing need for us to defend liberal democracy. Which is the optimistic scenario that Fukuyama is offering us.
    Yes, I agree. And this war also shows the folly of fighting a war over territory - or at least territory where people live. It will make future such wars less likely. (Though I still fear wars over control of water resources, especially in the Himalayas).

    This article seems to be a contrived attempt to weave the orange man bad narrative into the current crisis.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,145
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    people Boris Johnson thinks are a security risk:

    - Ukrainian refugees

    people Boris Johnson doesn’t think are a security risk:

    - his party-throwing Russian millionaire friend whom the head of MI6 warned was a security risk


    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1502918693185073153

    You forgot to add Gavin Williamson.
    That's Sir Gavin to you.
    Actually to me it's 'useless c***face' but I thought OGH would prefer 'Gavin Williamson.'
    Sir useless c***face, please.

    Important to maintain standards in difficult times
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    IanB2 said:

    A less optimistic view than Fukuyama's

    'Putin and Trump have convinced me: I was wrong about the 21st century
    Robert Reich'

    https://tinyurl.com/5n7zh5t9

    Yes, but:

    - the Ukranians are both nationalistic and desperate to be part of the EU and NATO;
    - controlling what citizens know undoubtedly is more difficult in the digital age. Plus the globalised economy is making sanctions and bans on Russian activity more powerful.

    He's right that wars can still happen - but who has been arguing that they can't?

    His key point is the continuing need for us to defend liberal democracy. Which is the optimistic scenario that Fukuyama is offering us.
    I wouldn't argue with that but I think there's a case to be made that decades of dewy eyed optimism about the eventual victory of liberal democracy are more to blame for where we are than Merkel, Corbyn, woke, what some bloke said on an obscure political betting site and all the other scapegoats so beloved on here.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    On Ukrainian refugees, it strikes me that there is a strong pattern with this government. It takes far too long to getting round to doing the right thing. But even once it gets there, it struggles to deliver the right thing competently. One can find repeated examples of this over the last couple of years - Covid loans, PPE equipment, test and trace, Channel crossings/asylum seekers, arrangements for exams, and so on. National Audit Office reports bear testament to a range of incompetence and wasting of taxpayers' money. In answer to the question 'is the government malign or just incompetent?', too often the answer is, as with refugees, both.

    That's a fair assessment and the government are totally responsible for bad policy decisions but I think some ( a lot?) of the incompetence shown in implementation is down to the Civil Service.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Baxter’s latest prediction for the successor seats to Russell Johnston’s old Lib/LD constituency:

    Highland Central LD 9.8%
    Highland East & Elgin LD 4.0%
    Argyll LD 9.2%

    Like snow off a dyke.

    That's true of an awful lot of LD seats, though.

    As a party, they have a low (almost non-existent) floor, but a surprisingly high ceiling.
    I've liked, but wanted to comment that I have liked. It is so true. Unlike Lab and Con we can win anywhere, but constantly have to work to hold otherwise it reverts. Once it reverts we can just disappear. I believe our core vote is below 4% and even that is subject to tactical voting.
    I don’t think that’s true. I couldn’t imagine the Lib Dems winning Mansfield, for example.
    Chesterfield isn't so far away and isn't so different.
    Sorry for the slow reply. My mum is from near Chesterfield and I would say they are quite different. Chesterfield has some quite posh areas which are/were fertile for the Lib Dems.
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Edge Hill (demographic when won)
    Southwark (demographic when won)
    Lots of rock solid Tory seats from nothing in by elections.

    If there is a plague on both houses re Con/Lab and you can convince the electorate you have a chance, anywhere is winnable.

    I gave an example earlier. No members, no supporters, no deliverers, etc etc. Threw resources in and won. Most challenging bit was getting signatures on nomination paper. Rest was down to throwing resources at it. Big win, never close before. Turned it into a marginal. Only just held in following all up election. Other 2 candidates also just missed being elected, whereas before they would not be close. Ward became split and has since flipped back and forth. If we stop working it, it will revert to solid Tory.
    Which was essentially my point. The LibDems suffer from a low core but enjoy a high ceiling - said enjoyment punctuated by the coalition and not regained until relatively recently. It's why Labour has less chance of winning some Tory seats from second than the LibDems do in the same seats from third; take away everyone who would never vote Labour and there aren't enough voters left in these places to be able to win, even in the best imaginable year. My own seat of the IOW, where Labour is now second, is a good example.
    It's a serious discussion and I understand the point. I'd question, though, whether the assumption that that dissatisfied Conservatives will never vote Labour - which was largely true under Jeremy Corbyn, fond though I am of him - is still true, partly because Starmer is obviously centrist to the extent that it's hard to see a difference to the LibDems, and partly because Davey has been more or less invisible (mostly due to the media habit of just quoting the big parties - I sympathise, but it's true). If we look at the latest poll on the YouGov website, we find that, of 2019 Conservative voters, 79% will still vote Tory, 7% will vote Labour and 2% will vote LibDem. Will the remainder be more likely to vote LD than Lab if they don't vote Con? I'm not sure the evidence suggests that that's true.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/zek1b001f5/TheTimes_VI_220309_W.pdf

    Conversely, 30% of LibDems plan to vote Labour. In the South outside London, much of which is what we think of as the Blue Wall, the figures are Con 41, Lab 31, LD 13.

    In a seat like Guildford, the position is clear for a tactical voter as the result last time was Con 45, LD 39 Lab 7 - the LDs can definitely say that tactical voters should go to them. Then there are seats like Worthing West (Con 56, Lab 29, LD 11) where frankly everyone may as well vote to show their preference as tactical voting won't be enough. But Worthing East and Shoreham was Con 51, Lab 37, LD 8. That's the sort of seat where the LibDems really oughtn't to be fighting an "only we can beat the Tories" campaign.

    Bottom line: we all need to focus, quietly compare notes, and minimise the number of seats where we're both claiming to be the natural tactical vote.
    The problem with that approach Nick ia that, if the Liberals and Labour are seen as too close together, then it allows the Conservatives to portray Liberals as proxy Labour with all the things attached to that. You also need Conservatives to stay at home, as they did in 1997.

    Re Starmer, for all the fact he is trying to move Labour to the Centre (or appear to do so), a lot of people don’t seem to trust him. Labour is still struggling to get much above 40% and their leads seem more driven by dissatisfaction at Boris and not support for Labour.
  • Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    A very positive-leaning article and lets hope that it is true. Here is my concern - what if Putin won't take defeat (and the end of his power) lying down? Fukayama points out that much of the Russian attacking power comes from rockets and artillery, often launched from well inside Russia.

    Putin, having painted himself into a corner, may decide the only solution is to smash his way out. By which I mean escalation of the war, the wholesale destruction of the rebellious Ukrainian cities. Just because the army has failed him doesn't mean he doesn't still have options.

    "But those would be crazy options" you say, and that is true. But if he is about to lose his grip on power, they likely seem far less crazy from his perspective. The inability or unwillingness to consider perspectives from the other side of the table has been a serious failing up until now...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    kle4 said:

    Russians occupying southern city of Kherson are reportedly trying to call a referendum to establish a new statelet: Kherson National Republic (like DNR and LNR).

    Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine


    https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502879082987593733

    It bears noting just how brazen the Russians are being. They know it doesnt fool anyone since the idea it is every Ukraininan cities dream to be an 'independent peoples republic' is just barmy.

    It also really undermines attempts to find a painful compromise for Ukraine around Donbas, since it would demonstrate the Russians wont stop at Donbas and Crimea - they will March in and declare further new 'states' at will, making the idea of conceding those areas as price for peace false.
    Indeed this is the fundamental flaw in the Nick Palmer way of thinking. The Russians aren't there because of a refusal to recognise Donbass/Crimea. Nato membership horrifies them because it means their threats against Ukraine are likely to fall on deaf ears. This is a mafia state. These people are gangsters. Their method is extortion. You either stand up to them or submit to their wishes. A long term negotiated settlement is for the birds.
    And because they are gangsters running a Mafia/Security state the military has to be kept weak so they don’t become an alternative power base/ threat.

    Long thread:

    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278
    All true.

    But it is also clear that Putin has gone full Greater Russian Nationalist. A critical part of this creed is that Russia is supreme in Eastern Europe - other smaller states must either be part of the Empire or cower in fear before the Awesome Might Of Mother Russia.

    Any kind of security guarantee for Ukraine means that Russia's ability to do what they want with their own territory (Ukraine is part of Russia is this creed, and has no separate identity or culture) is compromised.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    Dura_Ace said:

    darkage said:

    I cannot avoid the impression that Biden is extremely weak. The story is likely to be that Ukraine lost the war because it couldn't bomb the Russian positions, because it didn't have jets, because Biden prevented it, because Biden was to scared to poke the bear.

    Weak on Afghanistan, now this.

    The Polish Fulcrums have almost no A2G capability outside dumb bombing with WW2 levels of accuracy and efficacy. So they wouldn't be much use for bombing Russians even the US were inclined to let Ukraine have them which they are clearly not.

    The US have just delayed Slovakia's F-16V acquisition by 18 months to 2024. This may or may not be to delay the otherwise imminent availability of their MiG-29s. This is the unholy pact countries make when they join NATO. Do what you're told and shut the fuck up.
    I do appreciate your comments. But my point is that what they are being told is completely idiotic. How can we conclude anything other than Biden's comments being a green light for Putin to roll in to Finland and Sweden after they have blown Ukraine to bits? Biden seems more concerned with reassuring his domestic constituency that he won't go to another war, than anything to do with NATO. However, by running away he is actually creating more problems for himself down the line.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fukuyama:

    Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

    I was struck by that and I hope he's right. He's very emotionally invested in Ukraine though. He's done a lot of work with Ukraine's new breed of politicians and officials. We sneer at 'The End Of History'. Places like Ukraine do not.
    He's probably right on this one:

    There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

    And on these two, we can only hope:

    The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.

    Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?




    He also makes the point that NATO staying away from an NFZ not only avoids escalation but down the road will deprive the Russians of a potential excuse for their (predicted) defeat.
    Two weeks ago I put forward a slightly tortured cricketing analogy that the Ukrainian resistance was the surprisingly spirited first innings tenth wicket stand which was the crucial difference in avoiding the follow on and giving some hope for the second innings. We weren't expecting them to survive long, but every additional day they survived made the defence of Georgia, Moldova, the Baltics, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe more possible.
    It's looking increasingly possible however that the last wicket stand in the first innings could end up with a declaration and see us go into the second innings well into the lead.
    A combination of an absolutely heroic resistance and an astonishingly incompetent attack.
    My guess is that the Syrian and Chechen soldiers being brought in will be used for the more behind the line internal security stuff and to terrorise the captured towns into submission. I’m not sure that will work for the Russians but let’s see.

    Re the casualty rate, on the Oryx numbers, Russia’s equipment losses are running at around 3.5-3.6x those of Ukraine and have been consistent remarkably (although it’s come down from around 3.7x a few days back). As you said, hard to see it as sustainable if continued.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,326
    edited March 2022

    On Ukrainian refugees, it strikes me that there is a strong pattern with this government. It takes far too long to getting round to doing the right thing. But even once it gets there, it struggles to deliver the right thing competently. One can find repeated examples of this over the last couple of years - Covid loans, PPE equipment, test and trace, Channel crossings/asylum seekers, arrangements for exams, and so on. National Audit Office reports bear testament to a range of incompetence and wasting of taxpayers' money. In answer to the question 'is the government malign or just incompetent?', too often the answer is, as with refugees, both.

    That's a fair assessment and the government are totally responsible for bad policy decisions but I think some ( a lot?) of the incompetence shown in implementation is down to the Civil Service.
    Agreed, but who is responsible for Civil Service implementation? Answer - the government. One of the things Blair did right was recognise this, and he used people like Michael Barber and his Delivery Unit to ensure that the Civil Service actually delivered on government objectives. Blair and Brown also ensured that there was sufficient bandwidth to deliver on several priorities at the same time, something the current government really struggles with.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    edited March 2022
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not the worst idea for a new symbol of opposition.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502761903046774786
    Police in Nizhny Novgorod arrested a demonstrator today for protesting with a blank sign. Welcome to Russia in 2022.

    In 1952 the NKVD challenged an 84 year old man for carrying a banner outside the Kremlin saying 'Thank you Comrade Stalin for my happy childhood.'

    They pointed out Stalin wasn't even born when he was a child.

    They got the immortal reply, 'That's what made it so happy.'
    As a fellow pedant I hope you would welcome the observation that the NKVD had rebranded by 1952.
    Quite right, I thought it was 1954 but it was 1946.
    Soviet/Russian security services have gone through more variations than the Deep Purple line up, it is difficult to keep up. Largely the same outcomes though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Meanwhile, a Crufts update...last night's Toy Group finished with a rather fancy Yorkshire Terrier winner, who will go up against the Toy Poodle, Irish Terrier, Greyhound, Siberian Husky and Border Collie, plus the winner of this afternoon's Gundog judging, at this evenings Grand Finale Best of Show competition.
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