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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?
One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity.
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Comments
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Good piece, Mr Corporeal, and thanks.0
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And Yay, we've got a picture of the beautiful Sarah-Jane Mee in the thread header.0
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Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch 39s
London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs0 -
UKIP shouldn't be considered a major party unless there is polling indicating they have a good chance of winning a significant percentage of seats (lets say 5%). The UK has a FPTP system, the popular vote is meaningless.0
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Have been having a look at the Radio Times TV listings and I see that the Indy Ref will be counting overnight Thursday into Friday, the BBC is running a programme throughout the night from 10:35 to 6:00am.0
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Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch 46s
Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I share your approval of Sarah Jane-Mee.0
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Ooh! Tingles.TheScreamingEagles said:Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch 39s
London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs
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Farage had quite a tete a tete with Murdoch only a few days ago in New York. I would love to know what they talked about.TheScreamingEagles said:Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch 46s
Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband.
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So my reading is that the Sunday Times is going to back Scottish Independence tonight, and well the poll is still close.0
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FPT... worth showing again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww8AtSVYKVA0 -
Looks like unionists have given up already and introduced exchange rates early
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=828437017190759
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Looking at that photo, what strikes me is that Farage, like John Major, has a face that says the moustache goes here. Yet neither man has done what nature has obviously intended. It is political correctness/focus-group-nonsense gone mad.0
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The Lib Dems have done well out of this sort of decision before - there were suddenly 4 major parties rather than 3 for the Euros so they got to stay at the top table. That was presented as a victory for UKIP though.0
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snip0
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Second! On September 8th anyway!
Excellent summary corporeal - could "support in the constituency" become "support in opinion polls" in the run up to the GE? Would that be new?0 -
Is everyone off out buying gold, or what?0
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AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears0 -
Here at the amazing Media City in Salford. Due to go on BBC Breakfast at 7.45 to discuss the dramatic developments in IndyRef polls
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Completely?Stuart_Dickson said:The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
Diminished impact, yes, but the polling shows this group, even at the generally elevated intention to vote levels still has the highest intention to vote.
The auld wifies may do for you yet!
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The £ is down nearly 10 cents from its peak in July......I wonder how Scottish bank deposits are doing....dugarbandier said:Is everyone off out buying gold, or what?
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the higher the turnout the less relevant any weighting.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.0 -
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
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Can't find it. Surfing on mobile and the browser is not too bright. Can you permalink or coppypaste?Alanbrooke said:
the higher the turnout the less relevant any weighting.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.0 -
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
However since most guesses are for an 80 ish percent turnout then the weightings carry less weight so to speak since nearly everyone is planning to vote.
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.0 -
Sweden’s Election Hinges on 135,000 Voters as All Bets Are Off
Swedish voters are now less likely to oust the government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt on Sept. 14 than they were just a week ago.
The Social Democrat-led opposition’s lead has narrowed to 4.5 points in the latest poll by Sifo -- the smallest difference since May last year -- from 7.3 points a week earlier and 9.8 a month earlier. The shift toward the government follows presentations by the main parties revealing their policy goals for the next four years.
“We’re talking about 135,000 voters for things to become completely even, and that’s of course not a huge number,” Toivo Sjoeren, head of opinion research at TNS Sifo in Stockholm, said by phone.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/sweden-s-election-hinges-on-135-000-voters-as-all-bets-are-off.html0 -
raw data had Yes 475 and No 538 in the YouGov sample. Middle of the last thread there's a discussion on what it all means.Stuart_Dickson said:
Can't find it. Surfing on mobile and the browser is not too bright. Can you permalink or coppypaste?Alanbrooke said:
the higher the turnout the less relevant any weighting.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.0 -
20% of 4.2 million entitled voters is still a heck of a lot of people who will not use their vote.Alanbrooke said:
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
However since most guesses are for an 80 ish percent turnout then the weightings carry less weight so to speak since nearly everyone is planning to vote.
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.0 -
I meant among the sensible people who are neither BRAVEHEART Nats nor maudlin mourners for the union......they've been awfully quick to arrange a celebration/wake!Alanbrooke said:
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.
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Current Betfair:
Yes 3.4
No 1.40 -
Of course it is but it's a lot less than 50% of 4.2 million, what with turnout in the last two major elections being about 50-60%Stuart_Dickson said:
20% of 4.2 million entitled voters is still a heck of a lot of people who will not use their vote.Alanbrooke said:
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
However since most guesses are for an 80 ish percent turnout then the weightings carry less weight so to speak since nearly everyone is planning to vote.
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.0 -
well take your pick I suppose.CarlottaVance said:
I meant among the sensible people who are neither BRAVEHEART Nats nor maudlin mourners for the union......they've been awfully quick to arrange a celebration/wake!Alanbrooke said:
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.
- polls have tightened
- weightings leading to better yes performance in YouGov
- is YouGov overegging it since PanelBase didn't move much
- need more polls, four due this week
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CON look to be total write off in Clacton. Betfair:
UKIP 1.07
CON 12
LAB 2000 -
And among voters who claim turnout was 70% - so good luck weighting that lot!Alanbrooke said:
Of course it is but it's a lot less than 50% of 4.2 million, what with turnout in the last two major elections being about 50-60%Stuart_Dickson said:
20% of 4.2 million entitled voters is still a heck of a lot of people who will not use their vote.Alanbrooke said:
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
However since most guesses are for an 80 ish percent turnout then the weightings carry less weight so to speak since nearly everyone is planning to vote.
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.
It is rather odd that Panelbase (normally the "friendliest" to Yes) did not pick up the YouGov swing.
Meanwhile Project Fib is graduating to Project Downright Lie:
In what is easily the biggest lie in a war that has been notable for several whoppers, Alex Salmond has decreed that a vote against his plan to break up Britain would mean the increasing privatisation of the NHS in Scotland. More and more health provision would go out to private tender, he claims, whilst what’s left would be starved of cash.
That he and his supporters can repeat this monstrous calumny with a straight face and with no sign that they’ve got their fingers crossed behind their backs is remarkable for the simple reason that health policy north of the border, along with education and the legal system, has always been the responsibility of Scottish ministers who, since devolution, are answerable only to the Scottish Parliament. This means that the only person who can privatise the NHS in Scotland is Alex Salmond.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11080732/Scottish-Nationalists-NHS-lie-is-the-biggest-in-a-war-full-of-whoppers-so-why-is-it-working.html0 -
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.CarlottaVance said:
And among voters who claim turnout was 70% - so good luck weighting that lot!Alanbrooke said:
Of course it is but it's a lot less than 50% of 4.2 million, what with turnout in the last two major elections being about 50-60%Stuart_Dickson said:
20% of 4.2 million entitled voters is still a heck of a lot of people who will not use their vote.Alanbrooke said:
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
However since most guesses are for an 80 ish percent turnout then the weightings carry less weight so to speak since nearly everyone is planning to vote.
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.
It is rather odd that Panelbase (normally the "friendliest" to Yes) did not pick up the YouGov swing.
Meanwhile Project Fib is graduating to Project Downright Lie:
In what is easily the biggest lie in a war that has been notable for several whoppers, Alex Salmond has decreed that a vote against his plan to break up Britain would mean the increasing privatisation of the NHS in Scotland. More and more health provision would go out to private tender, he claims, whilst what’s left would be starved of cash.
That he and his supporters can repeat this monstrous calumny with a straight face and with no sign that they’ve got their fingers crossed behind their backs is remarkable for the simple reason that health policy north of the border, along with education and the legal system, has always been the responsibility of Scottish ministers who, since devolution, are answerable only to the Scottish Parliament. This means that the only person who can privatise the NHS in Scotland is Alex Salmond.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11080732/Scottish-Nationalists-NHS-lie-is-the-biggest-in-a-war-full-of-whoppers-so-why-is-it-working.html0 -
They'll get hammered, the more interesting by-election will be in North Manchester which looks like the kippers could be in with a chance on the plague on all your houses ticket.Stuart_Dickson said:CON look to be total write off in Clacton. Betfair:
UKIP 1.07
CON 12
LAB 2000 -
Surprised that you haven't heard of the SNP government privatising the Scottish NHS.....Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.CarlottaVance said:
And among voters who claim turnout was 70% - so good luck weighting that lot!Alanbrooke said:
Of course it is but it's a lot less than 50% of 4.2 million, what with turnout in the last two major elections being about 50-60%Stuart_Dickson said:
20% of 4.2 million entitled voters is still a heck of a lot of people who will not use their vote.Alanbrooke said:
It's the indy ref, there's no such thing as a PB consensus !CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
However since most guesses are for an 80 ish percent turnout then the weightings carry less weight so to speak since nearly everyone is planning to vote.
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.
It is rather odd that Panelbase (normally the "friendliest" to Yes) did not pick up the YouGov swing.
Meanwhile Project Fib is graduating to Project Downright Lie:
In what is easily the biggest lie in a war that has been notable for several whoppers, Alex Salmond has decreed that a vote against his plan to break up Britain would mean the increasing privatisation of the NHS in Scotland. More and more health provision would go out to private tender, he claims, whilst what’s left would be starved of cash.
That he and his supporters can repeat this monstrous calumny with a straight face and with no sign that they’ve got their fingers crossed behind their backs is remarkable for the simple reason that health policy north of the border, along with education and the legal system, has always been the responsibility of Scottish ministers who, since devolution, are answerable only to the Scottish Parliament. This means that the only person who can privatise the NHS in Scotland is Alex Salmond.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11080732/Scottish-Nationalists-NHS-lie-is-the-biggest-in-a-war-full-of-whoppers-so-why-is-it-working.html
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Will the £ go below $1.60 today......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm0 -
Really? That's interesting! Hmmm.....I'm left wondering if NO are still slightly ahead.Alanbrooke said:
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.CarlottaVance said:
I missed much of that thread (time difference) - is the consensus that Kellner's "correction" may have over corrected itself, taking a real, but smaller, change and magnifying it?Alanbrooke said:
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.Stuart_Dickson said:AndyJS said: "Looks to me like No are going to edge it due to the grey vote."
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears0 -
GBP has gone down 10c against AUD in about a week.CarlottaVance said:
The £ is down nearly 10 cents from its peak in July......I wonder how Scottish bank deposits are doing....dugarbandier said:Is everyone off out buying gold, or what?
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Good Morning.
This is the second attempt by Corporeal make this "publicity for UKIP" theme the main thread of the day.
Will there be another breathtaking, breaking piece of news to sweep it away today?
Will the voice of Murdoch echo again?0 -
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
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If UKIP do manage a win here (which I doubt), it will only be on the coattails of a win in Clapton.Alanbrooke said:
They'll get hammered, the more interesting by-election will be in North Manchester which looks like the kippers could be in with a chance on the plague on all your houses ticket.Stuart_Dickson said:CON look to be total write off in Clacton. Betfair:
UKIP 1.07
CON 12
LAB 200
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Clapton ? Will you be looking to Leila them on Betfair ?MikeK said:
If UKIP do manage a win here (which I doubt), it will only be on the coattails of a win in Clapton.Alanbrooke said:
They'll get hammered, the more interesting by-election will be in North Manchester which looks like the kippers could be in with a chance on the plague on all your houses ticket.Stuart_Dickson said:CON look to be total write off in Clacton. Betfair:
UKIP 1.07
CON 12
LAB 2000 -
UKIP being a major party or not, like everything else in British politics, is on hold until after Sindy. If it's a YES then:
1. UKIP's share of rUK polls goes up anyway.
2. The English get belatedly very very pissed off that the Scots have killed their country and wrought havoc in the markets and they didn't get a say in the business. Expect a fairly harsh anti-Scot / pro-England vibe to develop, which will loom over the negotiations also. Broadly good for UKIP.
So in its narrowest sense a YES is good news for UKIP. And one which Farage will exploit will skill.0 -
What is this north Manchester by-election? I can't find it on Google.0
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So when UKIP hits a level defined by others as "acceptable" you are advocating simply raising the bar by another notch to deny them (in your example here a fuzzy one). Nice.Oliver_PB said:UKIP shouldn't be considered a major party unless there is polling indicating they have a good chance of winning a significant percentage of seats (lets say 5%). The UK has a FPTP system, the popular vote is meaningless.
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Leila? Does he sing that after Juanderful Tonait?TGOHF said:
Clapton ? Will you be looking to Leila them on Betfair ?0 -
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?0 -
It's Heywood & Middleton - greater Manchester.Innocent_Abroad said:What is this north Manchester by-election? I can't find it on Google.
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Watching the news this morning, it appeared as if Labour had just woken up to the fact that a YES vote could mean wilderness for them.
Just wonder if they saw that YouGov for Scottish voters had found that Cameron had an popularity factor of -28 whilst EdM's was -53.0 -
Thanks, Felix.felix said:
It's Heywood & Middleton - greater Manchester.Innocent_Abroad said:What is this north Manchester by-election? I can't find it on Google.
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No doubt how Farage is completely outside the media-political complex and is not looking to support, or gain support from vested interests. Oh.......MikeK said:
Farage had quite a tete a tete with Murdoch only a few days ago in New York. I would love to know what they talked about.TheScreamingEagles said:Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch 46s
Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband.0 -
Heywood & Middleton. Jim Dobbin died at the weekend.Innocent_Abroad said:What is this north Manchester by-election? I can't find it on Google.
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SO Sorry: CLACTON. Still got sleep in my eyes.TGOHF said:
Clapton ? Will you be looking to Leila them on Betfair ?MikeK said:
If UKIP do manage a win here (which I doubt), it will only be on the coattails of a win in Clapton.Alanbrooke said:
They'll get hammered, the more interesting by-election will be in North Manchester which looks like the kippers could be in with a chance on the plague on all your houses ticket.Stuart_Dickson said:CON look to be total write off in Clacton. Betfair:
UKIP 1.07
CON 12
LAB 2000 -
Cameron's Scottish name is probably worth something on its own.Financier said:Watching the news this morning, it appeared as if Labour had just woken up to the fact that a YES vote could mean wilderness for them.
Just wonder if they saw that YouGov for Scottish voters had found that Cameron had an popularity factor of -28 whilst EdM's was -53.0 -
Looking at the currency spreads - the drop in the £ is actually fairly modest so far and hardly enough to justify the panic shown by some of the sillier [SeanT?] posters on here over the last few days. And of course the drop is good for exporters.0
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Thanks. I see he was a Papal Knight. And that BNP & UKIP had 5,000 votes between them last time.Monksfield said:
Heywood & Middleton. Jim Dobbin died at the weekend.Innocent_Abroad said:What is this north Manchester by-election? I can't find it on Google.
If UKIP can find a "celebrity" candidate with the right accent, I reckon they'll give Labour a very hard time. A betting opportunity once Shaddsy's worked out some odds.
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Down about 1% against the Thai Baht overnight. Down about 10% in a month. I’m off there early next year again; wish I’d bought my “spends” then!Stickytroll said:
GBP has gone down 10c against AUD in about a week.CarlottaVance said:
The £ is down nearly 10 cents from its peak in July......I wonder how Scottish bank deposits are doing....dugarbandier said:Is everyone off out buying gold, or what?
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OT
Yet More Lack of Aspiration in Wales
"Concerns have been raised that students are getting into universities in Wales with lower grades than elsewhere in the UK and the gap appears to be widening.
Figures show a recent stagnation in the average A-level "score" students need to get to study for a degree here......
Figures compiled for BBC Wales by the Higher Education Statistics Agency show the average score for Welsh universities had been growing steadily over the past five years, but stagnated between 2011 and 2012..
The gap between the required grade points needed for study in Wales compared to other UK universities is now 27 points - the widest in five years
In that time - UK colleges have seen a larger increase in the number of applications
Welsh applications increased to 106,110 - up 11.3% since 2008
UK applications were up to 2,711,870 - up 23.4% since 2008"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29099712
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How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro0 -
But NHS spending has been rising - and it's the SNP Scottish government that is already privatising the Scottish NHS in Scotland.....nowt to do with the English Westminstermalcolmg said:
we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
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Scotland will at some point be forced to adopt a new currency. I recommend it be called:JonnyJimmy said:
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euromalcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
THE GORDO
seems reasonable given how we got here.0 -
Reminds me of the LD attempt to gerrymander the London Assembly so the BNP would not win seats.GeoffM said:
So when UKIP hits a level defined by others as "acceptable" you are advocating simply raising the bar by another notch to deny them (in your example here a fuzzy one). Nice.Oliver_PB said:UKIP shouldn't be considered a major party unless there is polling indicating they have a good chance of winning a significant percentage of seats (lets say 5%). The UK has a FPTP system, the popular vote is meaningless.
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There are often multiple reasons for currency movements and much of the slide against the dollar [ which often ripples to other currencies ] began before recent Sindy polls. Also best not to get too carried away by daily shifts which often swing back fairly quickly. Hard luck of course if you have to buy at the wrong time.OldKingCole said:
Down about 1% against the Thai Baht overnight. Down about 10% in a month. I’m off there early next year again; wish I’d bought my “spends” then!Stickytroll said:
GBP has gone down 10c against AUD in about a week.CarlottaVance said:
The £ is down nearly 10 cents from its peak in July......I wonder how Scottish bank deposits are doing....dugarbandier said:Is everyone off out buying gold, or what?
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I think Clacton is key to this decision. If UKIP win that easily as the polls are currently predicting then UKIP will have shown that they can pass the FPTP test. Once they have done that their polling nationally means that they must get a seat at the table, even if it is a slightly smaller one. My guess is that Carswell's "principled" decision has been driven by this factor. He could easily have defected in a couple of months and legitimately argued that there was insufficient time. Good tactics and shrewd politics.
The more interesting question will be what happens to the Lib Dems. In previous elections they have been given pretty equal status which has been a factor in giving them a boost. If we do go on to big seats and small seats it is hard to see them not getting a smaller seat too at anything like their current polling. The pretence that he was a candidate for PM did Nick no harm at all the last time but is unlikely to be repeated.0 -
Lol - in Spain their most famous lottery ticket is called 'El Gordo' [the fat one].Patrick said:
Scotland will at some point be forced to adopt a new currency. I recommend it be called:JonnyJimmy said:
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euromalcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
THE GORDO
seems reasonable given how we got here.0 -
This encapsulates it perfectly , a bunch of lying rogues
We have yet to see what currency we end up with, we will start with the pound for sure. Regardless not having Westminster skimming the cash will mean they can spend all Scotland's money where they think best rather than just the pocket money part.JonnyJimmy said:
How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro0 -
The pound is currently down over 1% against the Euro and the US$ in the forex markets.0
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More from Rupert, he is getting the boot in:
twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/508637840218292224
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The debating table. As we have seen in Scotland once you get up to 4 people at these it gets far, far less effective with little opportunity to hold people to account.Scott_P said:
What table?DavidL said:they must get a seat at the table
If they win a seat at Westminster, they will have ... (drum roll) ... a seat at Westminster. Just like the Greens.
I do agree giving UKIP a seat will make the position of the Greens anomalous but even though they have1 MP too UKIP are polling at 4-5 times their vote at the moment.
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Are you predicting that Scotland will be in surplus following independence? Or that you'll be able to borrow as much as you want while in a currency union?malcolmg said:This encapsulates it perfectly , a bunch of lying rogues
We have yet to see what currency we end up with, we will start with the pound for sure. Regardless not having Westminster skimming the cash will mean they can spend all Scotland's money where they think best rather than just the pocket money part.JonnyJimmy said:
How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro0 -
The Scottish budget has shrunk and is planned to shrink a lot more, they can only protect it for so long , when they have no control of the money they have no control. You seem fixated with "English"CarlottaVance said:
But NHS spending has been rising - and it's the SNP Scottish government that is already privatising the Scottish NHS in Scotland.....nowt to do with the English Westminstermalcolmg said:
we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?0 -
Malcolm, the only people lying about the NHS are the Yes campaign. Whether rUK choose to spend more or less on privatised suppliers has no effect at all on the choices made by the Scottish Government.
Furthermore even in these years of supposed austerity NHS spending has been protected by a Tory government. So this has had no effect either.
The failure to address the over management of the NHS in Scotland has caused problems and a tightening budget as has the decision of the Scottish government to completely abolish prescription charges. These were choices of the Scottish government.
On the plus side I have commented how hard the Labour party finds it to praise the UK. Attacking the NHS on an entirely spurious basis at least allowed them to respond effectively.0 -
Unionists big bribe is that they will announce a plan of when they decide what if any crumbs we will get if we agree to stay under their jackboot.
Headless chickens does not come into it. They better start polishing CV's , if turds can be polished.0 -
Nobel prize winner Professor Paul Krugman knows nothing:
In short, everything that has happened in Europe since 2009 or so has demonstrated that sharing a currency without sharing a government is very dangerous. In economics jargon, fiscal and banking integration are essential elements of an optimum currency area. And an independent Scotland using Britain’s pound would be in even worse shape than euro countries, which at least have some say in how the European Central Bank is run.
I find it mind-boggling that Scotland would consider going down this path after all that has happened in the last few years. If Scottish voters really believe that it’s safe to become a country without a currency, they have been badly misled.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=00 -
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Gosh, that sounds familiar.SouthamObserver said:Nobel prize winner Professor Paul Krugman knows nothing:
In short, everything that has happened in Europe since 2009 or so has demonstrated that sharing a currency without sharing a government is very dangerous. In economics jargon, fiscal and banking integration are essential elements of an optimum currency area. And an independent Scotland using Britain’s pound would be in even worse shape than euro countries, which at least have some say in how the European Central Bank is run.
I find it mind-boggling that Scotland would consider going down this path after all that has happened in the last few years. If Scottish voters really believe that it’s safe to become a country without a currency, they have been badly misled.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=00 -
Looks like George forgot to phone Darling about those new powers , he has stated there will be none, as has Carmichael. These boys are really good at politics. Wonder who is fibbing.0
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0
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I am predicting that they will be able to spend Scotland's money in a far better , fairer and efficient way than the wasters at Westminster.JonnyJimmy said:
Are you predicting that Scotland will be in surplus following independence? Or that you'll be able to borrow as much as you want while in a currency union?malcolmg said:This encapsulates it perfectly , a bunch of lying rogues
We have yet to see what currency we end up with, we will start with the pound for sure. Regardless not having Westminster skimming the cash will mean they can spend all Scotland's money where they think best rather than just the pocket money part.JonnyJimmy said:
How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro0 -
Serious question: is Rupert after becoming (or at least hosting) the new Scottish state broadcaster?malcolmg said:More from Rupert, he is getting the boot in:
twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/5086378402182922240 -
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So all of Labour in England , the unions, doctors, etc , are they all in the YES campaign or do you disregard it because it is said outside Scotland.DavidL said:Malcolm, the only people lying about the NHS are the Yes campaign. Whether rUK choose to spend more or less on privatised suppliers has no effect at all on the choices made by the Scottish Government.
Furthermore even in these years of supposed austerity NHS spending has been protected by a Tory government. So this has had no effect either.
The failure to address the over management of the NHS in Scotland has caused problems and a tightening budget as has the decision of the Scottish government to completely abolish prescription charges. These were choices of the Scottish government.
On the plus side I have commented how hard the Labour party finds it to praise the UK. Attacking the NHS on an entirely spurious basis at least allowed them to respond effectively.0 -
I seriously doubt it. or if so, it's very far down his list of priorities. More to do with his issues with The Establishment.DecrepitJohnL said:
Serious question: is Rupert after becoming (or at least hosting) the new Scottish state broadcaster?malcolmg said:More from Rupert, he is getting the boot in:
https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/5086378402182922240 -
Do you not know or not care whether Scotland will raise enough in taxes to fund its public spending? Because if you can't, the Westminster government will have a bigger say than the Edinburgh government in how much you can borrow during a currency union.malcolmg said:
I am predicting that they will be able to spend Scotland's money in a far better , fairer and efficient way than the wasters at Westminster.JonnyJimmy said:
Are you predicting that Scotland will be in surplus following independence? Or that you'll be able to borrow as much as you want while in a currency union?malcolmg said:This encapsulates it perfectly , a bunch of lying rogues
We have yet to see what currency we end up with, we will start with the pound for sure. Regardless not having Westminster skimming the cash will mean they can spend all Scotland's money where they think best rather than just the pocket money part.JonnyJimmy said:
How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro0 -
He could not be worse than the EBC. They are reviled now for their bias. Given we pay £330 million for them and Ireland get same for £21 million there will be spare money for a decent Scottish broadcasting company.DecrepitJohnL said:
Serious question: is Rupert after becoming (or at least hosting) the new Scottish state broadcaster?malcolmg said:More from Rupert, he is getting the boot in:
https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/508637840218292224
Murdoch would be no worse than the BBC.0 -
Of course I do and I want them spent in Scotland to benefit Scottish people, not skimmed in Westminster for Trident , illegal wars and infrastructure in London.JonnyJimmy said:
Do you not know or not care whether Scotland will raise enough in taxes to fund its public spending? Because if you can't, the Westminster government will have a bigger say than the Edinburgh government in how much you can borrow during a currency union.malcolmg said:
I am predicting that they will be able to spend Scotland's money in a far better , fairer and efficient way than the wasters at Westminster.JonnyJimmy said:
Are you predicting that Scotland will be in surplus following independence? Or that you'll be able to borrow as much as you want while in a currency union?malcolmg said:This encapsulates it perfectly , a bunch of lying rogues
We have yet to see what currency we end up with, we will start with the pound for sure. Regardless not having Westminster skimming the cash will mean they can spend all Scotland's money where they think best rather than just the pocket money part.JonnyJimmy said:
How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro
After independence , England will waken up and have the same conclusion.0 -
The other aspect of this is cui bono. If UKIP do get more coverage in the GE, who benefits? There is a theory which has some evidence to support it that the core UKIP vote up to say 10% is about 2-1 ex-Tory, but thereafter quite a lot comes from Labour. So it's quite hard to predict what extra coverage will do - apart from helping UKIP itself, of course.
But the broadcasting guidelines on party coverage looked pretty tightly-drawn when I last read them (could someone post the relevant passage again? - not just for Clacton) with just a tiny amount of wriggle room, essentially saying the default is how everyone did at the last GE. That of course could potentially mean that the LibDems will be relegated to minor party status in 2020 while UKIP is elevated then even if they've fizzled in the meantime. That seems quite unreasonable, as does excluding UKIP now, so maybe the guidelines need revision - but it's hard to see the current beneficiaries regarding this as an urgent priority.0 -
Not long ago all you saw was rabid unionist stories , how times have changed. The rest of the world see what is happening.
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/?search=scottish+independence&JavaScript=1&lang=en0 -
So, if you've actually got less money to spend, the FREEDOM!!!! bonus make up for it...malcolmg said:
Of course I do and I want them spent in Scotland to benefit Scottish people, not skimmed in Westminster for Trident , illegal wars and infrastructure in London.JonnyJimmy said:
Do you not know or not care whether Scotland will raise enough in taxes to fund its public spending? Because if you can't, the Westminster government will have a bigger say than the Edinburgh government in how much you can borrow during a currency union.malcolmg said:
I am predicting that they will be able to spend Scotland's money in a far better , fairer and efficient way than the wasters at Westminster.JonnyJimmy said:
Are you predicting that Scotland will be in surplus following independence? Or that you'll be able to borrow as much as you want while in a currency union?malcolmg said:This encapsulates it perfectly , a bunch of lying rogues
We have yet to see what currency we end up with, we will start with the pound for sure. Regardless not having Westminster skimming the cash will mean they can spend all Scotland's money where they think best rather than just the pocket money part.JonnyJimmy said:
How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro
After independence , England will waken up and have the same conclusion.
I do feel bad about personally oppressing you for centuries; I should've known it'd come to this0 -
Having spent most of yesterday in a foul, maudlin mood as the likelihood of the break-up of our nation took hold, I am increasingly coming round to the "eff 'em all" way of thinking and hoping that a majority of Scots (sorry, "people who currently happen to reside in Scotland") do vote Yes.
If they fall for Salmond's stupid lies and half-baked fantasies, and can't see the value of being part of the one of the most powerful nations on earth, and fancy their chances as the Albania of the North (aspiring to be a Norway one day), then let's be rid of them.
My only hope is that a likely Miliband Government in FUK doesn't prostrate itself at Salmond's feet and hand them the most ridiculous of divorce settlements. As someone commenting on the BBC website yesterday said, my only hope is that the UK doesn't give a seceding Scotland "the house and the kids, whilst we take all the debt".
I hope that whether it's Theresa May, Boris or EdM leading the UK in 2015/2016, they at least show some cojones, refuse to let them have the pound or any BoE safety net, set up border posts, and do their damndest to make life as hard for them as possible.
What a pity though for the 50% or so of decent Scots who want to remain and who are about to be plunged into the nightmare of all nightmares. Even if Scotland gets lopped off, nobody is taking my country away from me.
EDIT: also, the thought of the hopeless dimwit Cameron falling on his sword at the end of next week is moderately cheering.0 -
Why will we have less money, you trying to say we are subsidised by rest of UK. That old chestnut has been shown to be absolute rubbish.JonnyJimmy said:
So, if you've actually got less money to spend, the FREEDOM!!!! bonus make up for it...malcolmg said:
Of course I do and I want them spent in Scotland to benefit Scottish people, not skimmed in Westminster for Trident , illegal wars and infrastructure in London.JonnyJimmy said:
during a currency union.malcolmg said:
I am predicting that they will be able to spend Scotland's money in a far better , fairer and efficient way than the wasters at Westminster.JonnyJimmy said:
Are you predicting that Scotland will be in surplus following independence? Or that you'll be able to borrow as much as you want while in a currency union?malcolmg said:This encapsulates it perfectly , a bunch of lying rogues
pocket money part.JonnyJimmy said:
How will it be any different during a currency union? You are still sure you'll get one, right?malcolmg said:
It needs to control its own money and not have Westminster skimming it and deciding where it is spent. You cannot plan when you get pocket money , as we have seen it gets cut on a whim and often.JonnyJimmy said:
The Barnett Formula which means that spending on public services per capita in Scotland can be one sixth higher than in the rest of the UK?Stuart_Dickson said:
Surprised that you have never heard of the Barnett Formula.
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro
After independence , England will waken up and have the same conclusion.
I do feel bad about personally oppressing you for centuries; I should've known it'd come to this
I say again we will spend our money on what matters , I don't think running up £1.5 trillion debt is a union benefit, so a freedom bonus will not be any worse0 -
He is establishment, or haven't you worked that out ?Theuniondivvie said:
I seriously doubt it. or if so, it's very far down his list of priorities. More to do with his issues with The Establishment.DecrepitJohnL said:
Serious question: is Rupert after becoming (or at least hosting) the new Scottish state broadcaster?malcolmg said:More from Rupert, he is getting the boot in:
https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/5086378402182922240 -
Further examples of Labour's multiculturalism success:
British female jihadis are running an ultra-religious police force that punishes women for un-Islamic behaviour in territory controlled by Islamist terrorists, The Sunday Telegraph can disclose.
How much more do we need before the Right's arguments have been made "out of date"?0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
This discussion has been closed.