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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?
One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity.
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London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs
Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww8AtSVYKVA
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=828437017190759
Excellent summary corporeal - could "support in the constituency" become "support in opinion polls" in the run up to the GE? Would that be new?
How is that compatible with your turnout prediction of 80-82% ?
The higher the turnout the less weight the grey vote carries. At 80 to 82% level its usual significance completely disappears
Diminished impact, yes, but the polling shows this group, even at the generally elevated intention to vote levels still has the highest intention to vote.
The auld wifies may do for you yet!
which means the raw data is closer to "opinion". See Mike's post from yesterday on the raw data.
However since most guesses are for an 80 ish percent turnout then the weightings carry less weight so to speak since nearly everyone is planning to vote.
The raw data in the YouGov sample had a comfortable No lead.
Swedish voters are now less likely to oust the government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt on Sept. 14 than they were just a week ago.
The Social Democrat-led opposition’s lead has narrowed to 4.5 points in the latest poll by Sifo -- the smallest difference since May last year -- from 7.3 points a week earlier and 9.8 a month earlier. The shift toward the government follows presentations by the main parties revealing their policy goals for the next four years.
“We’re talking about 135,000 voters for things to become completely even, and that’s of course not a huge number,” Toivo Sjoeren, head of opinion research at TNS Sifo in Stockholm, said by phone.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/sweden-s-election-hinges-on-135-000-voters-as-all-bets-are-off.html
Yes 3.4
No 1.4
- polls have tightened
- weightings leading to better yes performance in YouGov
- is YouGov overegging it since PanelBase didn't move much
- need more polls, four due this week
UKIP 1.07
CON 12
LAB 200
It is rather odd that Panelbase (normally the "friendliest" to Yes) did not pick up the YouGov swing.
Meanwhile Project Fib is graduating to Project Downright Lie:
In what is easily the biggest lie in a war that has been notable for several whoppers, Alex Salmond has decreed that a vote against his plan to break up Britain would mean the increasing privatisation of the NHS in Scotland. More and more health provision would go out to private tender, he claims, whilst what’s left would be starved of cash.
That he and his supporters can repeat this monstrous calumny with a straight face and with no sign that they’ve got their fingers crossed behind their backs is remarkable for the simple reason that health policy north of the border, along with education and the legal system, has always been the responsibility of Scottish ministers who, since devolution, are answerable only to the Scottish Parliament. This means that the only person who can privatise the NHS in Scotland is Alex Salmond.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11080732/Scottish-Nationalists-NHS-lie-is-the-biggest-in-a-war-full-of-whoppers-so-why-is-it-working.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm
This is the second attempt by Corporeal make this "publicity for UKIP" theme the main thread of the day.
Will there be another breathtaking, breaking piece of news to sweep it away today?
Will the voice of Murdoch echo again?
How much does Scotland need to avoid privatising its NHS?
1. UKIP's share of rUK polls goes up anyway.
2. The English get belatedly very very pissed off that the Scots have killed their country and wrought havoc in the markets and they didn't get a say in the business. Expect a fairly harsh anti-Scot / pro-England vibe to develop, which will loom over the negotiations also. Broadly good for UKIP.
So in its narrowest sense a YES is good news for UKIP. And one which Farage will exploit will skill.
Just wonder if they saw that YouGov for Scottish voters had found that Cameron had an popularity factor of -28 whilst EdM's was -53.
If UKIP can find a "celebrity" candidate with the right accent, I reckon they'll give Labour a very hard time. A betting opportunity once Shaddsy's worked out some odds.
Yet More Lack of Aspiration in Wales
"Concerns have been raised that students are getting into universities in Wales with lower grades than elsewhere in the UK and the gap appears to be widening.
Figures show a recent stagnation in the average A-level "score" students need to get to study for a degree here......
Figures compiled for BBC Wales by the Higher Education Statistics Agency show the average score for Welsh universities had been growing steadily over the past five years, but stagnated between 2011 and 2012..
The gap between the required grade points needed for study in Wales compared to other UK universities is now 27 points - the widest in five years
In that time - UK colleges have seen a larger increase in the number of applications
Welsh applications increased to 106,110 - up 11.3% since 2008
UK applications were up to 2,711,870 - up 23.4% since 2008"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29099712
I've a proposal for a currency union which may go down well south of the border. Scotland should be given special Browned Pounds. These would be a fair bit larger than the notes and coins we're used to, because they have to fit a large enough to be irritating, Grinning Gordon on both sides.
I imagine Scotland would dash for the groat or euro
THE GORDO
seems reasonable given how we got here.
The more interesting question will be what happens to the Lib Dems. In previous elections they have been given pretty equal status which has been a factor in giving them a boost. If we do go on to big seats and small seats it is hard to see them not getting a smaller seat too at anything like their current polling. The pretence that he was a candidate for PM did Nick no harm at all the last time but is unlikely to be repeated.
If they win a seat at Westminster, they will have ... (drum roll) ... a seat at Westminster. Just like the Greens.
twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/508637840218292224
I do agree giving UKIP a seat will make the position of the Greens anomalous but even though they have1 MP too UKIP are polling at 4-5 times their vote at the moment.
That's a winner
Furthermore even in these years of supposed austerity NHS spending has been protected by a Tory government. So this has had no effect either.
The failure to address the over management of the NHS in Scotland has caused problems and a tightening budget as has the decision of the Scottish government to completely abolish prescription charges. These were choices of the Scottish government.
On the plus side I have commented how hard the Labour party finds it to praise the UK. Attacking the NHS on an entirely spurious basis at least allowed them to respond effectively.
Headless chickens does not come into it. They better start polishing CV's , if turds can be polished.
In short, everything that has happened in Europe since 2009 or so has demonstrated that sharing a currency without sharing a government is very dangerous. In economics jargon, fiscal and banking integration are essential elements of an optimum currency area. And an independent Scotland using Britain’s pound would be in even worse shape than euro countries, which at least have some say in how the European Central Bank is run.
I find it mind-boggling that Scotland would consider going down this path after all that has happened in the last few years. If Scottish voters really believe that it’s safe to become a country without a currency, they have been badly misled.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?_r=0
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2014/09/08/the-scots-have-rumbled-capitalism-and-non-state-welfare/
Sir Murphaloon is riding into battle on his rusty typewriter.
Fun to come.
That's certainly proved a winner so far.
Murdoch would be no worse than the BBC.
After independence , England will waken up and have the same conclusion.
But the broadcasting guidelines on party coverage looked pretty tightly-drawn when I last read them (could someone post the relevant passage again? - not just for Clacton) with just a tiny amount of wriggle room, essentially saying the default is how everyone did at the last GE. That of course could potentially mean that the LibDems will be relegated to minor party status in 2020 while UKIP is elevated then even if they've fizzled in the meantime. That seems quite unreasonable, as does excluding UKIP now, so maybe the guidelines need revision - but it's hard to see the current beneficiaries regarding this as an urgent priority.
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/?search=scottish+independence&JavaScript=1&lang=en
I do feel bad about personally oppressing you for centuries; I should've known it'd come to this
If they fall for Salmond's stupid lies and half-baked fantasies, and can't see the value of being part of the one of the most powerful nations on earth, and fancy their chances as the Albania of the North (aspiring to be a Norway one day), then let's be rid of them.
My only hope is that a likely Miliband Government in FUK doesn't prostrate itself at Salmond's feet and hand them the most ridiculous of divorce settlements. As someone commenting on the BBC website yesterday said, my only hope is that the UK doesn't give a seceding Scotland "the house and the kids, whilst we take all the debt".
I hope that whether it's Theresa May, Boris or EdM leading the UK in 2015/2016, they at least show some cojones, refuse to let them have the pound or any BoE safety net, set up border posts, and do their damndest to make life as hard for them as possible.
What a pity though for the 50% or so of decent Scots who want to remain and who are about to be plunged into the nightmare of all nightmares. Even if Scotland gets lopped off, nobody is taking my country away from me.
EDIT: also, the thought of the hopeless dimwit Cameron falling on his sword at the end of next week is moderately cheering.
I say again we will spend our money on what matters , I don't think running up £1.5 trillion debt is a union benefit, so a freedom bonus will not be any worse
British female jihadis are running an ultra-religious police force that punishes women for un-Islamic behaviour in territory controlled by Islamist terrorists, The Sunday Telegraph can disclose.
How much more do we need before the Right's arguments have been made "out of date"?