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The Russian proposals – at least something is on the table – politicalbetting.com
The Russian proposals – at least something is on the table – politicalbetting.com
Above is a screen grab of the latest move today in the Ukraine crisis – the Russians setting out what they would agree to for a peaceful outcome.
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If Russia was agreeing to rebuild Kharkiv (and a thousand other towns) then maybe. They are not. Everyone will be skint after this
And, Ukrainians sense they are winning. It maybe somewhat delusional, born of social media, but there is a definite sense they are not only stalling the Evil Russians, they are pushing them back. Heroically
Do you sue for peace in that situation? I can't see it. Yes it is arguably logical - if you want to save your remaining towns - but Putin has pushed Ukraine far beyond cold logic. For them, this is surely existential, now. Russians are Nazis, who must lose. Both sides therefore need a "win" and that is a bad place for us all
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1500949857074307072
I could see the NATO demand being conceded (NATO won't want it perhaps, and they get some measure of support outside it if not enough), but how could Ukraine's leadership abandon EU membership as at least a goal?
There is no neutrality as far as being a buffer state goes. If you must comply with one side's wishes by force you're in effect in their political bloc anyway.
Here's hoping the Ukrainians do well enough in this war, likely to be lengthy, that they do not need to give up on their hopes, even if some are unlikely to be attained.
Putin has to be taken out otherwise he will just make Crimea and the Russian controlled areas into military bases readying for another invasion in years to come
At the very least Ukraine should join the EU and even NATO
Imagine after all that has happened we let him away with outrageous war crimes
this could be wildly off, but also is accurate its very bad for the Russians.
However, at this point the West seems to be only providing military equipment that helps Ukraine to defend, and to fight a guerrilla war. They're probably going to need some heavier equipment if they're going to push the Russians out completely.
If you even think about joining NATO we will invade you.
If you are in NATO we probably won't.
Therefore, please stop wanting to join NATO.
It's simply impossible to trust the word of an invader, especially one who claims they are not invading even as they are in the act of killing you.
I don't envy being Zelensky when a somewhat more rational condition is presented and he is pressured to accept by allies who would like a quick end to things.
Now as I say I have no idea how much wealth is in banks outside of Russia so it maybe that this would only be a tiny fraction of what was needed. But it would be interesting to know exactly how many of those many billions are in non-Russian banks.
I sat through an intel update this afternoon. While I can’t get specific, what I will say is that the view of the war that we are getting from expertly curated UKR IO is giving a lot of folks an impression of not only RUS incompetence but also UKR dominance. The excellent work of accounts like @RALee85 and @OSINTtechnical further reinforce this. They are not pushing disinfo, but they are providing reinforcement of an impression that the RF are wholly indisciplined and wildly incompetent. The RF absolutely feature these things. But what we are not seeing is the mil successes they are having. Recall they are advancing and they are taking ground. Just really slow. The fact is that RUS is having some success, and while they’ve lost a sizable amount of personnel and equipment, it’s only a small percentage of the total they brought. While each UKR loss, especially of their regular soldiers and pilots, is irreplaceable.
Its frozen status is one of the things which has totally nonplussed Moscow. They did not expect this
$300bn would surely be enough to rebuild Ukraine, and make it liveable again, and then some. No way Russia agrees to it
Even tonight Boris has been in a conference with Biden - Macron and Scholz
The maps he has on his massive desk are all lies. All the generals have been lying to him for years.
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, who took part in the second #Chechen war, the war in #Syria and the annexation of #Crimea, was killed in battles near Kharkiv.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500952134937894912
Of course, the Russians want Ukraine to demilitarise, which is another of those laughably one sided demands.
We don't like that you might have some weapons (or so we claim)
Therefore we will burn your country to the ground
This proves you don't need weapons, but that we do.
New Zelensky video, starts with him on an iphone showing the scene outside to walking into his office and starting his address. The phone/camera switch is pretty smooth. Whoever his social media team are, they're doing a great job.
Hence it seeming a grim stalemate will prevail, if the invasion is blunted.
And that is why sanctions must not be reduced if/when fighting does stall or stop - it doesn't make Ukraine any safer to stop them, and unless it concedes massively to Ukraine there is no reason to do so.
Unless, unless, the Chinese intervene. That is my hope now. This is bad for business.
I do think that if Ukraine gives up joining NATO, they need some serious military guarantees from the west which will take effect in any future invasion - yes, including a no-fly zone. Those would actually be better than hoping to join NATO, since we don't allow new members who have territorial disputes.
No way Russia does anything but lose, from here. Question is, does it lose alone, and if so, how badly? Or will the mad-hound Putin successfully launch a few nukes to save his "legacy"?
Then the EU enters into the equivalent of NATO's Article 5. Invasion of Ukraine would mean the military might of the combined EU, each defensively supporting other member states. An EU NATO by the back door, No other EU permanently troops stationed there. But US funded (supplied?) state of the art missile defence based across the country. And lots of regular joint exercises.
But not NATO. No sirree......
The UK says it will stand with the EU. Not as part of the EU army, but as solid as we have been these past 2 weeks.
Ends the illusion that Putin sees any distinction between NATO and the EU however
Question is, can Ukraine hold out long enough to convince Stalin's heir to make peace on terms that may truncate UKR territory, but leave the bulk (reasonably) independent?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/russian-forces-kill-mayor-of-town-near-kyiv-officials-say/
Mr Johnson says "We will protect you"
I don't subscribe to this point of view
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the Russians love their children too
It is, however, a good start.
I assume that no one in diplomatic circles will spend more than ten mins on this crock of shit.
Johnson has a similar problem, all be it on a vastly different scale. Whatever the Prime Minister says large sections of the country, including many in his own party, now don't believe him or don't expect him to do what he says.
I don't understand your distinction of giving up NATO membership in exchange for military guarantees from NATO including a no fly zone - that would provide Ukraine with the security of NATO backing in the event of further invasion, which is precisely what Russia does not want
That doesn't make any sense to me. It's not about NATO troops or bases not being stationed in Ukraine, since they can already be station near Russia in existing NATO countries, it seems to therefore be about Ukraine, specifically, not being allowed to have NATO defence. Giving them that defence without membership therefore doesn't seem acceptable to Russia even as a face saving option
Great news President Putin, Ukaine will not join NATO
That's great, we have successfully ensured military neutrality then?
Well...NATO have promised that they would come th Ukraine's aid if we ever attacked again
Sure sure, but like now, right?
Well, no, they'd also impose a no fly zone
...You're fired.
We don't pay the golf club subs any more, so we can't expect to be the Club Captain.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1500769632768118788?s=20&t=8xWoQkb8ZZqDdVTJfX41IA
If Ukr can hang on maybe another week then the supply issues for RU look like a military disaster to be read to junior officers in training for the next hundred years.
I guess the Whitehouse is wargaming a set of 'Putin goes fully bonkers in his rage at losing' scenarios.
Since it won't, there's no reason to remove them. They are effective the longer they go on.
The sanctions are because Russia has invaded. It doesn't follow, therefore, that all is well once they withdraw troops. What if they decided to do it all again a year from now?
1) Ukraine has a (pre-war) population of 40 million, which would massively alter the power balance of the various EU blocs if they joined the Visegrad group
2) Ukraine is one of the poorest European countries with a GDP per capita of about a third of the poorest EU member (Bulgaria), which would have a massive impact on the EU development budget
I don’t know whether Putin’s ‘offer’ is genuine but, given he’s not asking for demilitarisation, it’s likely he is coming at this from a position of needing to exit quickly. Russia just cannot go on like this.
I expect the lasting impact and deeper brand damage for Johnson from partygate (which hasn’t finished yet, btw) will be greater than what we are seeing in (some) polls on the impact of Ukraine.
Until they weren't, and Finns were forced to sue for peace.
Note that Finland had significant natural defenses versus Russia - vast forests, many lakes, tundra, narrow Karelian Isthmus, extremely limited transportation options - that Ukraine lacks. Plus Helsinki was NOT on the front line of battle.
So tad early in 2022 to say that Russians are whipped, this time around?
This was supposed to be over in three days.
Putin, unlikely Hitler or Napoleon though sensibly invaded as the Russia winter was ending with Spring and Summer on the way not in Summer with autumn and winter on the way
So by your own logic the sanctions should continue whilst those areas are occupied since their behaviour has not been altered sufficiently.
(Crimea is more awkward since virtually no one seems to conclude it would want to rejoin Ukraine).
So I am happy to concede your point - once Russia has altered its behaviour the sanctions should stop. The behaviour being the annexation and occupation of bits of Ukraine, not just bits beyond those taken in 2014.
And I wish people (well, you and HYUFD mostly) would stop making Johnson the only person in politics who gets called by a familiar name other than his surname. It’s “Johnson, Biden, Macron and Scholz” or “Boris, Joe, Emmanuel and Olaf”. You can’t have it both ways.
America poured billions into winning that Vietnam war, against a 3rd world opponent, yet it could not win because the people on the ground bitterly resisted any occupation - and that means by anyone, France, America, or China. Vietnam is a proudly independent country, as any visitor can attest. They REALLY hate China, by the way. Much more than the USA, despite the horrors of the war
Ukraine is now, surely, similarly disposed to Russia. For Ukrainians, Russia has gone from giant friendly neighbour (at best, for some) to evil bullying abuser (to all), in a week. It is now the hated enemy, and that must be a truth for decades to come
Russia has no hope of occupying and repressing a vast nation of 44m people who despise it, so Russia will only lose. The question is whether Russia loses fast, or slow, or with an outburst of H bombs