politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market
Comments
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Of course not.TheScreamingEagles said:
In this country, the Prime Minister does not order the arrests of people.Alanbrooke said:
But nothing in Ed;s back garden.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's been quite a few arrests in West Yorkshire.Alanbrooke said:
err really ?TheScreamingEagles said:Scottish referendum: nothing else now matters in British politics
There can be excuses for complacency or ignorance, with polls suggesting an independent Scotland is only 10 days away
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-ten-days-to-go-vote-uk?CMP=twt_fd
what exactly is Kettle planning to do ?
The indy arguments were all settled six months ago, now it's just repitition and looking for something amusing to while away the tedium. There needs to a vote so get on with it.
Meantime any arrests in Rotherham ?
And Cameron does zilch.
He's got people to do that for him.
A bit like the way Ashya King got fast tracked when he took an interest.0 -
The best Scottish players rarely stayed in Scotland. Where did Souness, Dalglish etc play when they were at the top of their game * The difference now is that SPL greats seem rarely better than mid table Championship level.foxinsoxuk said:
It does show how far Scottish football has fallen, when only one player plays at home.EPG said:
Course it's democratic, if you don't live there you don't get to decide if it separates.TGOHF said:@Briandamge64: How ironic that of the 11 guys deemed worthy of representing scotland tonight only 1 is eligible to vote in the referendum. Very democratic
Ambitious Scots will continue to migrate south either way the vote goes.
*yes, goalkeepers normally stayed. Goram could probably have moved, Alan rough less so.0 -
Mr. Eagles, that's unrelated to Rotherham. Always good when scum are brought to justice, but the many who perpetrated or allowed to be perpetrated the foul crimes in Rotherham ought to be held to account.0
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There's only two Andy Goram'smatt said:
The best Scottish players rarely stayed in Scotland. Where did Souness, Dalglish etc play when they were at the top of their game * The difference now is that SPL greats seem rarely better than mid table Championship level.foxinsoxuk said:
It does show how far Scottish football has fallen, when only one player plays at home.EPG said:
Course it's democratic, if you don't live there you don't get to decide if it separates.TGOHF said:@Briandamge64: How ironic that of the 11 guys deemed worthy of representing scotland tonight only 1 is eligible to vote in the referendum. Very democratic
Ambitious Scots will continue to migrate south either way the vote goes.
*yes, goalkeepers normally stayed. Goram could probably have moved, Alan rough less so.0 -
I thought he had ordered Theresa May to do something.Alanbrooke said:
Of course not.TheScreamingEagles said:
In this country, the Prime Minister does not order the arrests of people.Alanbrooke said:
But nothing in Ed;s back garden.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's been quite a few arrests in West Yorkshire.Alanbrooke said:
err really ?TheScreamingEagles said:Scottish referendum: nothing else now matters in British politics
There can be excuses for complacency or ignorance, with polls suggesting an independent Scotland is only 10 days away
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-ten-days-to-go-vote-uk?CMP=twt_fd
what exactly is Kettle planning to do ?
The indy arguments were all settled six months ago, now it's just repitition and looking for something amusing to while away the tedium. There needs to a vote so get on with it.
Meantime any arrests in Rotherham ?
And Cameron does zilch.
He's got people to do that for him.
A bit like the way Ashya King got fast tracked when he took an interest.0 -
So, is the panic over ? Has Sean got his money back ?0
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Naysmiths missed two sitters for the Scots0
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Remind me which Party had most MPs when Ireland was partitioned...TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour have a terrible record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Here's a clue for you - NOT Labour or Liberal.
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So Rupert is going about dissolving the Union - like his own marriage union with Wendi got dissolved?
I have to doff my hat, his taste for revenge is positively Jacobean....0 -
Thatcher & Douglas-Home promised 'improved' devolution if Scots voted No. How did that pan out?TheScreamingEagles said:
Scots voted for Devolution before Maggie became PM, it was a Labour PM that denied them democracy.
Deja vu all over again.
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Fox
"Ambitious Scots will continue to migrate south either way the vote goes."
Funnily enough in advertising the Scottish agencies were going through such a purple patch up to about five years ago and winning so many awards that they were attracting top talent from London. Something no provincial towns have been able to do0 -
It was a Liberal PM who lost us Irelandstodge said:
Remind me which Party had most MPs when Ireland was partitioned...TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour have a terrible record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Here's a clue for you - NOT Labour or Liberal.0 -
It is really remarkable the extent to which the expectation of an exceptionally high turnout in the Indy Referendum has surged since the opinion polls showed a recent closing of the gap between the YES and NO factions.
Less than two weeks ago, I mentioned the attractions of backing a > 75% turnout with Betfair at decimal odds of 1.98. This evening the same bet is on offer at 1.36.0 -
GIN1138 Right on that0
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Anya!!!!!0
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Here's one Eastern European immigrant I wouldn't want to live next door: Jack the Ripper
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/jack-the-ripper-was-polish-immigrant-called-aaron-kosminski-new-book-claims-9716805.html0 -
Nah he;s just a bitter old man trying to stay alive.MarqueeMark said:So Rupert is going about dissolving the Union - like his own marriage union with Wendi got dissolved?
I have to doff my hat, his taste for revenge is positively Jacobean....
Doff your cap to Tony Blair - I really don't get why lefties don't put up a statue to him now - he duped the Rupe, got his papers to print anything he asked, got made godfather to his kids and eh was very understanding with Mrs M.0 -
Scotland have equalised.
Shadsy was offering 80/1 about a win for Scotland (over Germany) and Yes0 -
"28 men arrested in Keighley grooming gang probe"
Yes but what about Cliff??0 -
We'd lose 10% of our voting power in the European Parliament.Tykejohnno said:We've had a lot of what if's on this thread ,so I will join in ;-)
Scotland leaving the union,won't that set off the EU referendum lock ? it's a massive change to our membership of the EU,we joined as the GB & NI and in a couple of weeks time part of it could have split.0 -
He's clearly a thoroughly nasty old man. If he can't get carte blanche to have crimes go on at his newspapers, then he tries to split a country apart. The man is scum and always has been.Alanbrooke said:
Nah he;s just a bitter old man trying to stay alive.MarqueeMark said:So Rupert is going about dissolving the Union - like his own marriage union with Wendi got dissolved?
I have to doff my hat, his taste for revenge is positively Jacobean....
Doff your cap to Tony Blair - I really don't get why lefties don't put up a statue to him now - he duped the Rupe, got his papers to print anything he asked, got made godfather to his kids and eh was very understanding with Mrs M.0 -
Bah Germany equalise and then should've been down to 100
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What would Scottish independence do to the Tories net immigration target?0
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Does the book clarify whether he knew who Queen Anne's successor was, thus proving his understanding of British culture?Socrates said:Here's one Eastern European immigrant I wouldn't want to live next door: Jack the Ripper
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/jack-the-ripper-was-polish-immigrant-called-aaron-kosminski-new-book-claims-9716805.html
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so why do we let him trade in our country ?Socrates said:
He's clearly a thoroughly nasty old man. If he can't get carte blanche to have crimes go on at his newspapers, then he tries to split a country apart. The man is scum and always has been.Alanbrooke said:
Nah he;s just a bitter old man trying to stay alive.MarqueeMark said:So Rupert is going about dissolving the Union - like his own marriage union with Wendi got dissolved?
I have to doff my hat, his taste for revenge is positively Jacobean....
Doff your cap to Tony Blair - I really don't get why lefties don't put up a statue to him now - he duped the Rupe, got his papers to print anything he asked, got made godfather to his kids and eh was very understanding with Mrs M.0 -
I feel confident he had no understanding of the constitutional importance of the Hannoverian succession, nor even the Glorious Revolution.NickPalmer said:
Does the book clarify whether he knew who Queen Anne's successor was, thus proving his understanding of British culture?Socrates said:Here's one Eastern European immigrant I wouldn't want to live next door: Jack the Ripper
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/jack-the-ripper-was-polish-immigrant-called-aaron-kosminski-new-book-claims-9716805.html
I wonder what the difference in crime rates is between educated students of history and those without a clue.0 -
Failed to reach the required number of signatories to take effect as official UN policy - 14 approvals but only 7 states signed up when 15 are neededSocrates said:
Only the rUK would be considered a successor state.Richard_Tyndall said:
Like you I wish that it were true but precedent - such as the case of the Czech Republic and Solvakia - sghows that both successor states would be considered to remain party to all treaties signed by the original state as a matter of course.HurstLlama said:
Some months ago someone, and I forget who, suggested that if Scotland voted to leave then all treaties signed by the UK since 1707 would lapse and SeanT said Cameron would have to resign. That struck me at the time as being a cracking deal - we get rid of the Scots, the EU, and Cameron all in one go. My only regret was that there was no way I could vote for it, oh and it did not include the Welsh.Luckyguy1983 said:Wouldn't it be great if we ALL had to re-apply for EU membership in the wake of Devomax? Should we just not bother? Say the dog ate the form? Lost in the post?
There is now also a Vienna Convention on Successor States in respect of treaties although the UK is not a signatory.
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That could be interesting, especially following on from that stand-out 7% Labour lead they reported 4 weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hopeful we'll get ICM tomorrowGIN1138 said:Are we getting ICM tomorrow?
If so we've got:
Populus
The Good Lord- Amen
ICM
YouGov
The REAL #megapollingmonday0 -
If it reverts back to the previous ICM and shows a Tory lead, then what's that going to do for Better together.peter_from_putney said:
That could be interesting, especially following on from that stand-out 7% Labour lead they reported 4 weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hopeful we'll get ICM tomorrowGIN1138 said:Are we getting ICM tomorrow?
If so we've got:
Populus
The Good Lord- Amen
ICM
YouGov
The REAL #megapollingmonday
Gold Standard of the UK Polling has the Tories ahead0 -
Source please?sarissa said:
Failed to reach the required number of signatories to take effect as official UN policy - 14 approvals but only 7 states signed up when 15 are neededSocrates said:
Only the rUK would be considered a successor state.Richard_Tyndall said:
Like you I wish that it were true but precedent - such as the case of the Czech Republic and Solvakia - sghows that both successor states would be considered to remain party to all treaties signed by the original state as a matter of course.HurstLlama said:
Some months ago someone, and I forget who, suggested that if Scotland voted to leave then all treaties signed by the UK since 1707 would lapse and SeanT said Cameron would have to resign. That struck me at the time as being a cracking deal - we get rid of the Scots, the EU, and Cameron all in one go. My only regret was that there was no way I could vote for it, oh and it did not include the Welsh.Luckyguy1983 said:Wouldn't it be great if we ALL had to re-apply for EU membership in the wake of Devomax? Should we just not bother? Say the dog ate the form? Lost in the post?
There is now also a Vienna Convention on Successor States in respect of treaties although the UK is not a signatory.0 -
Arguably, it was a Serbian nationalist who lost us Ireland. Had the Home Rule Bill been enacted, it's possible the bloodletting of the next decade would have been avoided.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a Liberal PM who lost us Irelandstodge said:
Remind me which Party had most MPs when Ireland was partitioned...TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour have a terrible record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Here's a clue for you - NOT Labour or Liberal.
Lloyd George may have been a Liberal but his Administration was dominated and supported by Conservatives.
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An oddity, it appears, is the Betfair market still rating Yes as a 12/5 outside chance. That could be people betting emotionally, but is it possible that it's based on more solid data? Have observers seen the first postal votes opened for validation yet?0
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This Anya looks different class for Scotland, they've played really well here, would be quite unlucky to lose0
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Police investigating a grooming gang of 31 men in the Calderdale area:
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/Crime/article1455928.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_09_060 -
Any Tory lead would be flaccid at best. Tories are having real problems getting their vote % up as expected.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it reverts back to the previous ICM and shows a Tory lead, then what's that going to do for Better together.peter_from_putney said:
That could be interesting, especially following on from that stand-out 7% Labour lead they reported 4 weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hopeful we'll get ICM tomorrowGIN1138 said:Are we getting ICM tomorrow?
If so we've got:
Populus
The Good Lord- Amen
ICM
YouGov
The REAL #megapollingmonday
Gold Standard of the UK Polling has the Tories ahead
Expect the UK public to swing back to Labour.0 -
I love your style of lovebombingSeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.0 -
Darwinism.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
When all your people with get up and go do just that, what remains?0 -
Perhaps blame Mr Ferdinand for Scotland's possible independence too. With Ireland still in the union, a system of home rule for all four nations in a federal system could have worked.stodge said:
Arguably, it was a Serbian nationalist who lost us Ireland. Had the Home Rule Bill been enacted, it's possible the bloodletting of the next decade would have been avoided.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a Liberal PM who lost us Irelandstodge said:
Remind me which Party had most MPs when Ireland was partitioned...TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour have a terrible record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Here's a clue for you - NOT Labour or Liberal.
Lloyd George may have been a Liberal but his Administration was dominated and supported by Conservatives.
England would have still had three quarters of the population though. Perhaps the blame should go back to George III and Lord North, the original opponents of home rule.0 -
file:///C:/Users/Mike/Downloads/Item_No_3.1___Proposed_Grand_Orange_Lodge_of_Scotland_Referendum_Rally___13_September_2014_1.pdfTheuniondivvie said:
I think they're being kept away from Princes Street. The douce burghers of Edinburgh & their wives shopping in Jenners must be protected from such things.Alanbrooke said:
I think they'd prefer their new one on Princes StreetTheuniondivvie said:
Perhaps if the OO insist that it's on a traditional route..Alanbrooke said:
well put it this way divvie I don't think anyone will be moving it without pemission or an armoured Land Rover.Theuniondivvie said:
Sectarian no go areas even on the hills?Alanbrooke said:
at least to the 19th, since it's in West BelfastTheuniondivvie said:Wonder how long this will last?
http://tinyurl.com/nm3fx47
Page 5 applies. It looks as if they are indeed being kept away from Jenners and Harvey Nicks. And also diverted to avoid disrupting the North/South Bridge route.
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Are you also going to blame the Tories for DLG's other shenanigans?stodge said:
Arguably, it was a Serbian nationalist who lost us Ireland. Had the Home Rule Bill been enacted, it's possible the bloodletting of the next decade would have been avoided.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a Liberal PM who lost us Irelandstodge said:
Remind me which Party had most MPs when Ireland was partitioned...TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour have a terrible record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Here's a clue for you - NOT Labour or Liberal.
Lloyd George may have been a Liberal but his Administration was dominated and supported by Conservatives.0 -
Yeah, I don't think we can access your hard drive Mike, try putting it on DropboxCarnyx said:
file:///C:/Users/Mike/Downloads/Item_No_3.1___Proposed_Grand_Orange_Lodge_of_Scotland_Referendum_Rally___13_September_2014_1.pdfTheuniondivvie said:
I think they're being kept away from Princes Street. The douce burghers of Edinburgh & their wives shopping in Jenners must be protected from such things.Alanbrooke said:
I think they'd prefer their new one on Princes StreetTheuniondivvie said:
Perhaps if the OO insist that it's on a traditional route..Alanbrooke said:
well put it this way divvie I don't think anyone will be moving it without pemission or an armoured Land Rover.Theuniondivvie said:
Sectarian no go areas even on the hills?Alanbrooke said:
at least to the 19th, since it's in West BelfastTheuniondivvie said:Wonder how long this will last?
http://tinyurl.com/nm3fx47
Page 5 applies. It looks as if they are indeed being kept away from Jenners and Harvey Nicks. And also diverted to avoid disrupting the North/South Bridge route.
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I blame Marcus Aurelius.
If he hadn't abandoned the wise policy of imperial adoption in favour of an incestuous murderer the Roman Empire might still be with us today, and Britannia would still be wisely governed.0 -
'You're leaving me, you bitch? You must be really dumb.'TheScreamingEagles said:
I love your style of lovebombingSeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
I blame Marcus Aurelius.
If he hadn't abandoned the wise policy of imperial adoption in favour of an incestuous murderer the Roman Empire might still be with us today, and Britannia would still be wisely governed.
The Sunil headline for Monday 8th September:
Morris Dancer calls for European Superstate
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Go to Wales and look.Alanbrooke said:
Darwinism.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
When all your people with get up and go do just that, what remains?
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Woman on Jeremy Vine last week; some official connection with SNP though saidd she was speaking to Vine in purely personal capacity.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
JV. It won't be easy if you don't have own currency: you can't print money to get you out of a jam
Woman: You are quite wrong, Clydesdale and B of S ALREADY print £ notes!!
JV Errm, but do you think you could continue doing so after indy, without UK consent?
W: Oooh, I am afraid that question is above my pay grade.
They really are that dim.
If Yes win, and Salmond sterlingises, and UK fails to nuke Holyrood within the following 24 hours, Salmond will say "Look! as I predicted! They've implicitly agreed to a currenvy union", and be believed.
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I actually had Sussex in mind.HurstLlama said:
Go to Wales and look.Alanbrooke said:
Darwinism.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
When all your people with get up and go do just that, what remains?0 -
There are some of us still here getting our going going without going.HurstLlama said:
Go to Wales and look.Alanbrooke said:
Darwinism.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
When all your people with get up and go do just that, what remains?0 -
It's not lack of intelligence, it's emotion dictating intelligence. It's not dissimilar to Thatcher being returned triumphant in 1983 (my birth year) with Harrier Jump Jets and Port Stanley imprinted on people's minds. We can look on that as a 'good' instance of emotional voting, because the outcome was what we desired, but it's no different.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
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Mr. Freggles, alas, the Roman Empire has gone forever. It forsook its virtues. The death of Stilicho was perhaps the final death knell, the event horizon from which there was no return.
I do wonder where we'd be if Aurelian had survived the moron who assassinated him, or if Commodus had been other than a lunatic. Imagine if we'd not had the Dark Ages (I think one SG-1 episode had a human race on another planet with that premise). We'd be far more scientifically advanced than we are today.
Oh well.
The meddlesome eunuchs of Brussels combine the very worst aspects of Byzantine intrigue and latter day Western Roman incompetence. Cf Ukraine, and the single currency. Whether on domestic or foreign policy, it's a colossal **** up.0 -
You presumably mean, detected, convicted and sent to prison surely. And consider white collar crime ...Socrates said:
I feel confident he had no understanding of the constitutional importance of the Hannoverian succession, nor even the Glorious Revolution.NickPalmer said:
Does the book clarify whether he knew who Queen Anne's successor was, thus proving his understanding of British culture?Socrates said:Here's one Eastern European immigrant I wouldn't want to live next door: Jack the Ripper
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/jack-the-ripper-was-polish-immigrant-called-aaron-kosminski-new-book-claims-9716805.html
I wonder what the difference in crime rates is between educated students of history and those without a clue.
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Any Tory lead would be flaccid at best. Tories are having real problems getting their vote % up as expected.
Expect the UK public to swing back to Labour.
Let's try a bit of idle speculation - if there's a yes vote and Cameron resigns (inevitable IMO) the Tory party will split - maybe 50-100 MPs will either join, or seek local pacts with, UKIP. The remaining 200 or so will stay with the Tories. The right wing vote will split with UKIP in the high teens and the Tories in the high 20s. Labour will win a substantial majority on a vote share about the same as its current polling level.
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Don't know how that happened! Not my hard drive either. The URL, for those not wanting to wait a few hours before they can cross the road, isFreggles said:
Yeah, I don't think we can access your hard drive Mike, try putting it on DropboxCarnyx said:
file:///C:/Users/Mike/Downloads/Item_No_3.1___Proposed_Grand_Orange_Lodge_of_Scotland_Referendum_Rally___13_September_2014_1.pdfTheuniondivvie said:
I think they're being kept away from Princes Street. The douce burghers of Edinburgh & their wives shopping in Jenners must be protected from such things.Alanbrooke said:
I think they'd prefer their new one on Princes StreetTheuniondivvie said:
Perhaps if the OO insist that it's on a traditional route..Alanbrooke said:
well put it this way divvie I don't think anyone will be moving it without pemission or an armoured Land Rover.Theuniondivvie said:
Sectarian no go areas even on the hills?Alanbrooke said:
at least to the 19th, since it's in West BelfastTheuniondivvie said:Wonder how long this will last?
http://tinyurl.com/nm3fx47
Page 5 applies. It looks as if they are indeed being kept away from Jenners and Harvey Nicks. And also diverted to avoid disrupting the North/South Bridge route.
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/43960/item_no_31_-_proposed_grand_orange_lodge_of_scotland_referendum_rally_-_13_august_2014
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Albania have beaten Portugal one nil, in Portugal0
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Well so far the Indyref has allowed us to update Dr JohnsonHurstLlama said:
Go to Wales and look.Alanbrooke said:
Darwinism.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
When all your people with get up and go do just that, what remains?
" The Scots are a fair people - they never speak well of one another "0 -
He was the Nick Clegg of his day?TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you also going to blame the Tories for DLG's other shenanigans?stodge said:
Arguably, it was a Serbian nationalist who lost us Ireland. Had the Home Rule Bill been enacted, it's possible the bloodletting of the next decade would have been avoided.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a Liberal PM who lost us Irelandstodge said:
Remind me which Party had most MPs when Ireland was partitioned...TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour have a terrible record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Here's a clue for you - NOT Labour or Liberal.
Lloyd George may have been a Liberal but his Administration was dominated and supported by Conservatives.0 -
To be fair an amazing number of English people are taken in by UKIP's nonsense, so it's not only a Scottish problem, there are a lot of mugs across the UK.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.0 -
It has happened before. Before the Scottish Reformation, the French were in power in Scotland, and used to go around burning people for heresy. No residual anger about that in Scotland though. I'm not even sure people know.SeanT said:
Yeah, but then the capital flight will begin, and all the banks moving from Edinburgh to London, and Scots £s will become even more suspect across the border, and the new Scots government won't be able to borrow, except at extortionate rates...Ishmael_X said:
Woman on Jeremy Vine last week; some official connection with SNP though saidd she was speaking to Vine in purely personal capacity.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
JV. It won't be easy if you don't have own currency: you can't print money to get you out of a jam
Woman: You are quite wrong, Clydesdale and B of S ALREADY print £ notes!!
JV Errm, but do you think you could continue doing so after indy, without UK consent?
W: Oooh, I am afraid that question is above my pay grade.
They really are that dim.
If Yes win, and Salmond sterlingises, and UK fails to nuke Holyrood within the following 24 hours, Salmond will say "Look! as I predicted! They've implicitly agreed to a currenvy union", and be believed.
Salmond's snake oil will start to taste of snake very quickly.
They my not mind. The taste of freedom will be so sweet.
Except.... they will still be in the European Union (or desperately trying to get back in). So they can be governed from Brussels and Berlin, where they have zero influence, instead of London, where they massive influence, out of all proportion to their population.
This is the ridiculous irony behind Salmond's campaign. "Independence in Europe" means exactly that. He would prefer to be ruled by German bankers and French bureaucrats, as against his own people and the English.
It's all about hating the English.0 -
Vote No, get Ed!TheScreamingEagles said:
I love your style of lovebombingSeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
Vote Yes, get (rid of) Dave!0 -
Mr. Eagles, best away win for them since Pyrrhus became King of Sicily?0
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Cameron and Brown join forces to persuade Scots to stay British as Yes camp forges lead
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11080618/Ten-days-to-save-the-Union.html
Well the union is definitely f##ked now...0 -
Well they both in their own way, buggered up the House of Lords, one succeeded, one failed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
He was the Nick Clegg of his day?TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you also going to blame the Tories for DLG's other shenanigans?stodge said:
Arguably, it was a Serbian nationalist who lost us Ireland. Had the Home Rule Bill been enacted, it's possible the bloodletting of the next decade would have been avoided.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a Liberal PM who lost us Irelandstodge said:
Remind me which Party had most MPs when Ireland was partitioned...TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour have a terrible record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Here's a clue for you - NOT Labour or Liberal.
Lloyd George may have been a Liberal but his Administration was dominated and supported by Conservatives.0 -
No. When the Czech Republic and Slovakia split the international community accepted that both were entitled to remain as signatories to all existing Czechoslovak treaties.Socrates said:
Only the rUK would be considered a successor state.Richard_Tyndall said:
Like you I wish that it were true but precedent - such as the case of the Czech Republic and Solvakia - sghows that both successor states would be considered to remain party to all treaties signed by the original state as a matter of course.HurstLlama said:
Some months ago someone, and I forget who, suggested that if Scotland voted to leave then all treaties signed by the UK since 1707 would lapse and SeanT said Cameron would have to resign. That struck me at the time as being a cracking deal - we get rid of the Scots, the EU, and Cameron all in one go. My only regret was that there was no way I could vote for it, oh and it did not include the Welsh.Luckyguy1983 said:Wouldn't it be great if we ALL had to re-apply for EU membership in the wake of Devomax? Should we just not bother? Say the dog ate the form? Lost in the post?
There is now also a Vienna Convention on Successor States in respect of treaties although the UK is not a signatory.
If the UK had signed the Vienna Convention it would be far more problematic but as it stands the precedent of Slovakia appears to hold good for Scotland as well.0 -
http://legal.un.org/avl/ha/vcssrspad/vcssrspad.htmlSocrates said:
Source please?sarissa said:
Failed to reach the required number of signatories to take effect as official UN policy - 14 approvals but only 7 states signed up when 15 are neededSocrates said:
Only the rUK would be considered a successor state.Richard_Tyndall said:
Like you I wish that it were true but precedent - such as the case of the Czech Republic and Solvakia - sghows that both successor states would be considered to remain party to all treaties signed by the original state as a matter of course.HurstLlama said:
Some months ago someone, and I forget who, suggested that if Scotland voted to leave then all treaties signed by the UK since 1707 would lapse and SeanT said Cameron would have to resign. That struck me at the time as being a cracking deal - we get rid of the Scots, the EU, and Cameron all in one go. My only regret was that there was no way I could vote for it, oh and it did not include the Welsh.Luckyguy1983 said:Wouldn't it be great if we ALL had to re-apply for EU membership in the wake of Devomax? Should we just not bother? Say the dog ate the form? Lost in the post?
There is now also a Vienna Convention on Successor States in respect of treaties although the UK is not a signatory.0 -
Hardly equivalent.glw said:
To be fair an amazing number of English people are taken in by UKIP's nonsense, so it's not only a Scottish problem, there are a lot of mugs across the UK.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
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We are doing all right thanks, though I reckon in parts of Brighton evolution has gone into reverse. Wales is another matter though. I did some work in the Swansea area a couple of years back and, God, that was depressing. There were people there, in responsible jobs, mind you, still convinced that when they got a proper Labour government back the pits would re-open. I am strongly inclined to believe that the reason for the poor performance in Welsh schools is down to the fact that most of those with brains have left taking their children with them.Alanbrooke said:
I actually had Sussex in mind.HurstLlama said:
Go to Wales and look.Alanbrooke said:
Darwinism.SeanT said:The Scottish referendum is becoming a kind of national IQ Test. If Scots believe Salmond's bullshit about currency, the EU, etc, the Scottish average IQ must be less than 80.
Are they really that dim? Actually subnormal?
I don't want to believe they are. Not the nation of David Hume and Adam Smith.
When all your people with get up and go do just that, what remains?0 -
Except the politicians. For good or ill.foxinsoxuk said:
It does show how far Scottish football has fallen, when only one player plays at home.EPG said:
Course it's democratic, if you don't live there you don't get to decide if it separates.TGOHF said:@Briandamge64: How ironic that of the 11 guys deemed worthy of representing scotland tonight only 1 is eligible to vote in the referendum. Very democratic
Ambitious Scots will continue to migrate south either way the vote goes.
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Any Tory lead would be flaccid at best. Tories are having real problems getting their vote % up as expected.anothernick said:
Expect the UK public to swing back to Labour.
Let's try a bit of idle speculation - if there's a yes vote and Cameron resigns (inevitable IMO) the Tory party will split - maybe 50-100 MPs will either join, or seek local pacts with, UKIP. The remaining 200 or so will stay with the Tories. The right wing vote will split with UKIP in the high teens and the Tories in the high 20s. Labour will win a substantial majority on a vote share about the same as its current polling level.
You wish!0 -
Murdoch paper stirs up shit - what's new ?SeanT said:
Has anyone actually read the Sunday Times (££: won't bother linking) report that accompanied the infamous YouGov poll? I just did.
It has some fascinating titbits.
Here's a starter:
"Tory MPs warned that David Cameron would have to resign as prime minister if Scotland voted to go it alone. Several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand he quit, and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there were a “yes” vote"
So that's two Tory ministers who will resign if YES wins, apart from Cameron and Osborne.
It will be a political meltdown. The idea that Cameron (and maybe Osborne) could survive this carnage is nuts. He will go. Along with several others. Maybe quite a few...0 -
It doesn't say 'Cabinet ministers', but 'ministers' - two juniors going would be irrelevant. Whether this would be sufficient is another question.Alanbrooke said:
Murdoch paper stirs up shit - what's new ?SeanT said:
Has anyone actually read the Sunday Times (££: won't bother linking) report that accompanied the infamous YouGov poll? I just did.
It has some fascinating titbits.
Here's a starter:
"Tory MPs warned that David Cameron would have to resign as prime minister if Scotland voted to go it alone. Several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand he quit, and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there were a “yes” vote"
So that's two Tory ministers who will resign if YES wins, apart from Cameron and Osborne.
It will be a political meltdown. The idea that Cameron (and maybe Osborne) could survive this carnage is nuts. He will go. Along with several others. Maybe quite a few...0 -
Don't tell me you didn't back that underdog?TheScreamingEagles said:Albania have beaten Portugal one nil, in Portugal
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it might as well say archbishops since it's just a page filler to set some gossip off.rottenborough said:
It doesn't say 'Cabinet ministers', but 'ministers' - two juniors going would be irrelevant. Whether this would be sufficient is another question.Alanbrooke said:
Murdoch paper stirs up shit - what's new ?SeanT said:
Has anyone actually read the Sunday Times (££: won't bother linking) report that accompanied the infamous YouGov poll? I just did.
It has some fascinating titbits.
Here's a starter:
"Tory MPs warned that David Cameron would have to resign as prime minister if Scotland voted to go it alone. Several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand he quit, and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there were a “yes” vote"
So that's two Tory ministers who will resign if YES wins, apart from Cameron and Osborne.
It will be a political meltdown. The idea that Cameron (and maybe Osborne) could survive this carnage is nuts. He will go. Along with several others. Maybe quite a few...0 -
Four ELBOWs (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) have been published by the Sunil on Sunday. This week's (based on 5 polls with fieldwork 1st to 5th September) is as follows:
Lab 35.9% (-0.1)
Con 32.8% (+0.6)
UKIP 14.7% (+0.2)
LD 7.3% (-0.5)
(changes from last week's ELBOW)
Changes from the first ELBOW, dated 17th August:
Lab -0.2
Con -0.4
UKIP +1.6
LD -1.50 -
I didn't, I had one football bet tonight, Scotland to beat GermanyMarqueeMark said:
Don't tell me you didn't back that underdog?TheScreamingEagles said:Albania have beaten Portugal one nil, in Portugal
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I think some people need to lie down in a darkened room for a bit. Scotland voting yes will definitely take us into unchartered consitutional territory. But logically almost all of the short term downside should be to Scotland. The idea that the response from the UK Govt should be to resign en masse would be crazy. It's bad enough imagining how the markets will respond to the yes vote without the UK Govt losing its head (more than it appears to be doing at the moment). But if there's no UK Govt as well...? Anyone actually standing up and arguing that it SHOULD happen is nuts.0
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Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave?SeanT said:
Has anyone actually read the Sunday Times (££: won't bother linking) report that accompanied the infamous YouGov poll? I just did.
It has some fascinating titbits.
Here's a starter:
"Tory MPs warned that David Cameron would have to resign as prime minister if Scotland voted to go it alone. Several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand he quit, and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there were a “yes” vote"
So that's two Tory ministers who will resign if YES wins, apart from Cameron and Osborne.
It will be a political meltdown. The idea that Cameron (and maybe Osborne) could survive this carnage is nuts. He will go. Along with several others. Maybe quite a few...
I wish I lived north of the Border
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 50s
Before weightings in the YouGov IndyRef YES lead poll NO was ahead by comfortable margin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw9WrH2CEAAm6Ve.png0 -
Telegraph:
"officials were forced to clarify that no new devolved powers would be announced. The Government will simply announce a new timetable for a cross-party convention to devolve powers to Scotland “swiftly” after the general election next year."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11080618/Ten-days-to-save-the-Union-with-Scotland.html0 -
What do we draw from that then? Aren't the weightings important?TheScreamingEagles said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 50s
Before weightings in the YouGov IndyRef YES lead poll NO was ahead by comfortable margin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw9WrH2CEAAm6Ve.png0 -
Well,well,well.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 50s
Before weightings in the YouGov IndyRef YES lead poll NO was ahead by comfortable margin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw9WrH2CEAAm6Ve.png
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God knows how we ever made it through two World Wars. Fortunately we must have had politicians who had a bit of backbone.0
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really we should just kick Murdoch out of our media, he's malign.SeanT said:
Oh FFS. It is just the case. The Sunday Times today is desperate to save the Union, despite what their elderly owner may want. This is just reportage. You can tell.Alanbrooke said:
Murdoch paper stirs up shit - what's new ?SeanT said:
Has anyone actually read the Sunday Times (££: won't bother linking) report that accompanied the infamous YouGov poll? I just did.
It has some fascinating titbits.
Here's a starter:
"Tory MPs warned that David Cameron would have to resign as prime minister if Scotland voted to go it alone. Several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand he quit, and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there were a “yes” vote"
So that's two Tory ministers who will resign if YES wins, apart from Cameron and Osborne.
It will be a political meltdown. The idea that Cameron (and maybe Osborne) could survive this carnage is nuts. He will go. Along with several others. Maybe quite a few...
Here's another titbit, from the other side:
"Recriminations also engulfed Labour, with insiders calling for Ed Miliband to sack the party’s election co-ordinator, Douglas Alexander, who is blamed by many for the reversal of fortune.
"Unionists on both sides of the border are venting frustration at the quality of the Better Together team, which they claim lacks vision and ability.
"Better Together figures have christened Alexander “Rain Man” after the autistic character played by Dustin Hoffman because “people cannot connect with him”.
“"It’s a campaign with no vision and no direction — the general feeling is that the people are just not up to the job on the Labour side,” one unionist insider said.
"A Labour frontbencher said Miliband should fire Alexander as his general election co-ordinator. “Douglas is showing why he shouldn’t be put in charge of a whelk stall let alone a major campaign. Even if there’s a ‘no’ vote, we don’t want our fate in his hands next year.”
I remain amazed that our politicians haven't done so to date, increasingly he's painting himself in to a corner with only Salmond and Farage as stooges, assuming of course Farage can't ask himself what's that bad odour hanging over RM.0 -
It's true that the Yes window posters vastly outnumber the No Thanks ones. But I like a hand-scrawled one which says "My mum's saying No Thanks, but I'm for Yes!"0
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If that had come off, then without a doubt Scotland would have voted for independence.TheScreamingEagles said:
I didn't, I had one football bet tonight, Scotland to beat GermanyMarqueeMark said:
Don't tell me you didn't back that underdog?TheScreamingEagles said:Albania have beaten Portugal one nil, in Portugal
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Because the Germans (and Japs in Round 2) were crap?alex said:God knows how we ever made it through two World Wars. Fortunately we must have had politicians who had a bit of backbone.
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Only an issue if you think the weightings are wrong.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 50s
Before weightings in the YouGov IndyRef YES lead poll NO was ahead by comfortable margin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw9WrH2CEAAm6Ve.png
Intriguing uptick in the Tories' implied Holyrood VI.0 -
What's in it for the English for Scotland to remain in the UK?
English tax payers already massively subsidise the Scots and devomax or anything similar costs us more.
The Scots appear pathologically left wing which makes the UK more lefty than the English want a d if they bugger off Labour have near zero chance of ever winning again.
What's not to like about that about that0 -
The interesting thing from that article is the story it tells for May 2015. If Labour can't sell hundreds of years of winning heritage, what chance do they have of selling a cobbled together bunch of economic measures that no-one believes make sense?Alanbrooke said:
really we should just kick Murdoch out of our media, he's malign.SeanT said:
Oh FFS. It is just the case. The Sunday Times today is desperate to save the Union, despite what their elderly owner may want. This is just reportage. You can tell.Alanbrooke said:
Murdoch paper stirs up shit - what's new ?SeanT said:
Has anyone actually read the Sunday Times (££: won't bother linking) report that accompanied the infamous YouGov poll? I just did.
It has some fascinating titbits.
Here's a starter:
"Tory MPs warned that David Cameron would have to resign as prime minister if Scotland voted to go it alone. Several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand he quit, and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there were a “yes” vote"
So that's two Tory ministers who will resign if YES wins, apart from Cameron and Osborne.
It will be a political meltdown. The idea that Cameron (and maybe Osborne) could survive this carnage is nuts. He will go. Along with several others. Maybe quite a few...
Here's another titbit, from the other side:
"Recriminations also engulfed Labour, with insiders calling for Ed Miliband to sack the party’s election co-ordinator, Douglas Alexander, who is blamed by many for the reversal of fortune.
"Unionists on both sides of the border are venting frustration at the quality of the Better Together team, which they claim lacks vision and ability.
"Better Together figures have christened Alexander “Rain Man” after the autistic character played by Dustin Hoffman because “people cannot connect with him”.
“"It’s a campaign with no vision and no direction — the general feeling is that the people are just not up to the job on the Labour side,” one unionist insider said.
"A Labour frontbencher said Miliband should fire Alexander as his general election co-ordinator. “Douglas is showing why he shouldn’t be put in charge of a whelk stall let alone a major campaign. Even if there’s a ‘no’ vote, we don’t want our fate in his hands next year.”
I remain amazed that our politicians haven't done so to date, increasingly he's painting himself in to a corner with only Salmond and Farage as stooges, assuming of course Farage can't ask himself what's that bad odour hanging over RM.
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I rather think it was the Nipponese who started first, and the Germans later started their game on a different pitch ...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because the Germans (and Japs in Round 2) were crap?alex said:God knows how we ever made it through two World Wars. Fortunately we must have had politicians who had a bit of backbone.
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I wonder what happens to Clegg if there is a Yes vote? No-one seems to think he'd be in trouble,but the mood could turn very febrile. If Scotland does the unthinkable, Cameron is defenestrated, how would Deputy PM who's position in his party is precarious at best cope? The whole atmosphere could be infectious and the Lib Dem polling position only gets worse.0
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Got my quote function muddled up. The bit you highlighted was the comment I was responding to.Socrates said:
This is a pretty stupid thing to say in a thread where it has been shown with evidence that UKIP are the most working class party.Charles said:
But that does not fit the narrative, Far better to say that UKIP support comes from the poor and those "left behind" (read uneducated).Itajai said:
UKIPs support is pretty evenly distributed through all classes if I remember the polling correctly
Total boolox of course.
Given the light of evidence, are you prepared to change your conclusions to fit the facts: that it's your Tory analysis that is the false narrative?
Somehow, I doubt it. It will be the same immunity to reality that have Tories believe Theresa May is a good home secretary even after she rides roughshod over civil liberties, has huge backlogs of missing immigrants lost, needs the BBC to find out immigration test centres read the answers aloud to immigrants, takes days to stop riots in most our major cities, hands ancient British liberties voluntarily to Brussels, sees massive lines at Heathrow and manages a whopping 5% progress towards the net immigration target.
*My* view is that UKIP is a mixture of:
Skilled working class (C1/C2) + ex-Lib Dem protest voters (A/B) + libertarians (A/B) + [forget who mentioned it] Southern Reactionaries [B/C1].
Makes it a pretty balanced mixture.0 -
And yet he runs the one remaining quality newspaper in the UK (or one of two if you count the FT, but that is more a specialist publication than a newspaper).Alanbrooke said:
really we should just kick Murdoch out of our media, he's malign.0 -
Weightings are important, but if the raw numbers are still showing No ahead, then it isn't quite such a seismic change.isam said:
What do we draw from that then? Aren't the weightings important?TheScreamingEagles said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 50s
Before weightings in the YouGov IndyRef YES lead poll NO was ahead by comfortable margin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw9WrH2CEAAm6Ve.png
Generally when YouGov had No leading by 20 odd points, they led the unweighted numbers by around 200, in the latest poll they led by 60 or so.
So my own hunch is No is still ahead, and this is an outlier because of the sample variation.0 -
Since the composition of the voting population for the indyref is likely to be quite different from that of normal election polling, I would have thought these weightings should be treated with considerable circumspection.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 50s
Before weightings in the YouGov IndyRef YES lead poll NO was ahead by comfortable margin.
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Ok SeanT was right
A quarter of Scots believe MI5 spies are “working with the UK government to try and stop Scottish Independence”, according to research carried out for BuzzFeed by polling company YouGov.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/scotland-poll#u8d04j0 -
Are we expecting a YouGov/Sun poll any time now?0
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Queen almost as whiny as PB shock.
Sky News @SkyNews 4 mins
DAILY MIRROR FRONT PAGE: Don't let me be last Queen of Scotland. #skypapers
http://tinyurl.com/pthoe4p0
