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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market
As can be expected the weekend polls have triggered off a lot of betting activity. The market we can monitor best is the Betfair exchange where the price of the last trade is being constantly updated.
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Anyway, as we can see with the Cleggasm polls the reporting of good polls for any particular party is no guarantee of success for that party - there are far more important forces at work.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/all-over-the-place/#more-61368 has more detail on the purdah issue - including the relevant texts. In particular, he notes that the No campaign were very keen to use the purdah argument as a justification for not having a second replay of the Salmond vs Darling debate, and how shocking it would be to have the debate after postal voting has begun, etc. etc.
If they can hold UKIP to only a couple of seats then they may hope that UKIP are a fad which will burn out.
One has to remember the distinction between what is good for the right in general and what the individuals at the top of the Conservative party think is good for their party.
Federal UK
I like!
Imagine the T-shirt opportunities for tourists.
I am angry with lots of people concerned with all of this. Firstly, we wouldn't likely be in this mess if the Tories hadn't treated Scotland as some sort of crash-test dummy centre on the Poll Tax thus wiping out any remaining Scottish support for them in the process. That's led to a very divided country in the first place. Secondly I'm angry with the refusal to allow a Devo-Max option. A lot of sensible Scots who justifiably feel excluded from the current situation may well have voted for that instead of independence. That's got to be down to Cameron and co. Cameron is showing what an utterly hopeless politician he is in all of this. And I don't mean that in a party political sense either. To have allowed this to happen on his watch is unforgiveable and if he has any honour he will go. I'm also angry with Labour in fighting such a poor fight and not waking up to the danger too late. Campaign in haste, repent at leisure.
And I'm angry with the SNP for whipping up hate and animosity. There seems to be an immense amount of anti-English feeling and I wouldn't want to visit any time soon which makes me very sad.
I'm still hopeful that the Scots will vote no and we can work together to build a better country for all of us. The FPTP voting system hasn't helped and that must go and a more federal version of government would be most welcome across the board.
But I must also say this. Whilst I fervently hope Scotland stays, if it does go I want the remainder of the UK to play hard-ball in negotiations. No currency union and they must take their share of the debt. And I say that as a card-carrying lefty. If they make their bed they must lie in it, even if that means we suffer in the short term too. We must look after our own interests in the long term.
A yes vote will mean more hatred and division among our nations which can't be a good thing, and will rip my family into two countries.
What a terrible shame.
It means some don't want to take the risk of being lumbered with a neo-liberal government, which forgets what "governing" is all about.
Though in reality I think that it would lead to an independent England, via an English parliament in the short term.
Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch·2 mins
Salmond's private polls predict 54-46 Yes. Desperate last ten days ahead for both sides. Most powerful media, BBC, totally biased for No.
have a lot to think about how they cast their vote.
As they gave Salmond the opportunity to mesmerise Cameron into not having devo max
on the ballot.
Sandy Rentool If both the Tories and UKIP have a higher vote share than Labour it would be impossible for Labour to have more seats, for starters as they would start to lose significant numbers of working class seats to UKIP.
In the event of a Yes, that claim is central to the next two years.
This paper by Anthony Carty and Mairianna Clyde is currently available free as a pdf. It's a very interesting review of that very claim - and their contrary conclusion, based on the argument that the UK is not a unitary but composite state. It's well worth a read by those interested, as I have mentioned before - but it may have a new importance.
http://lril.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/08/12/lril.lru007.full.pdf
Very rough area today with multi stories that have more visits from the police than any other public sector workers. Surprisingly it was very even with a bit of a generational split, oldies voting (or voted in many cases) No and the younger ones voting Yes. Really, given the area, quite encouraging.
UKIPs support is pretty evenly distributed through all classes if I remember the polling correctly
But that does not fit the narrative, Far better to say that UKIP support comes from the poor and those "left behind" (read uneducated).
Total boolox of course.
SO/Scrapheap As opposed to Murdoch doing everything in his power to rip up UK and have Salmond in power at one end and Farage on another
Will Scottish persons working and living in England, and the reverse, have to eventually decide which passport to apply for, either a Scottish one or rUK one ?
Blair replaced a constitutional settlement that have lasted almost 300 years with one that doesn't look as though it will last 20.
Whether Yes or No win, Blair's settlement will be torn up.
It looks like desperate back peddling, as the realisation that such enmities will sour negotiations, sinks into thick skulls.
Farage should (politely) tell him where to go. If he gets into bed with Murdoch, there's nothing that'll faster turn me off UKIP.
Are you sure? I just checked the last YouGov (picked it at random as the easiest polling tables to find), it had UKIP on 15%. But amongst 'ABC1' it was 11%, and 20% amongst 'C2DE'. That ratio, of almost 2:1, is much sharper than that for Labour (1:1 exactly in this poll) or the Tories (about 10:9) - though actually slightly smaller than the LDs (2.25:1).
You might be right, my research is at most 2 minutes on this, but I'd be surprised. For starters, why do UKIP do so much better in places like Essex seaside towns than leafy urban hubs if their support isn't split by class? And so much poorer amongst graduates?
Maybe I'll be surprised, I'm not ruling that out. But what polling makes you say the support is pretty evenly distributed?
Hope we do not end up like the border to Gibraltar.
But one of the striking things about UKIP is its appeal to older, working class former Tories, especially those who left school at 15 or 16 and earn less than £20,000 a year.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/24/where-ukip-gets-its-support/
Two thirds of the UKIP vote is made up of men, more so than for any of the three main parties. Their support is also mostly from those aged 55+; their reliance on the so-called “grey vote” is greater than even the Conservatives and of course older people are the most likely group to actually vote so their support is important
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/blogs/thepoliticswire/1334/UKIP-voters-who-are-they.aspx
“Ukip’s supporters look more like Old Labour than True Blue Tories. Ukip’s supporters tend to be blue-collar, older, struggling economically, and often live in poorer, urban areas, with big pools of support in the Labour heartlands of the North. Middle-class suburbanites do not dominate Ukip. They shy away from it.
“In fact, Ukip are Britain’s most working-class party. Blue-collar workers are heavily over-represented. Middle-class professionals are scarce. Such voters often express as much hostility to the Conservative party as they do to Labour.”
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/02/the-surprising-and-important-truth-about-ukip.html
By the way, I blame EdM's recent cloth-eared intervention in the debate, which he treated as a party political matter, for the Yes surge. It looks like don't knows and weak labour supporters saying no thanks to his idea that they can avoid "Tory rule from Westminster" by voting No on 18th September and then voting for Labour next May.
The Union Flag is fundamentally about the union between Scotland and England. That's what the whole basis of the flag is made up from: the St. George's and St. Patrick's crosses.
If Scotland leaves the UK, then that Union (and, strictly speaking, the UK) ceases to exist and the flag becomes totally and utterly irrelevant.
Of course, we could continue to use it - as a design/fashion brand, or whatever SeanT says below - and I'd fly it until my dying day. But I'm under no illusions: it would be ludicrous as a national flag, and open to ridicule. People would point and laugh. That's what makes it so desperately sad.
The only context in which it could (legitimately) continue to be used is the Royal King's/Queen's colours as the crowns would still be united (aka 1606 to 1707) but as a national flag it'd be obsolete. Like the Confederate flags you still see flying in parts of Alabama and Georgia today.
I suspect what we'd actually see is a huge swell in support for the St. George's flag, which is extremely boring but at least would have the merit of being valid.
"It's very much about a dislike of the English; this latest 'Anti Westminster' line that some are peddling, is simply laughable."
Somewhat reluctantly I'm inclined to agree.
There is little economic justification for Independence. If anything the economic advantages lie the other way. It has to be fuelled by something else then, and anti-Englishness seems the obvious significant driving force.
I find this rather sad. I like Scotland, and the Scots, and am disappointed to discover that enough of them feel hostile enough towards England and the English to consider the risks and likely economic disadvantages of separation worthwhile.
But if that's the way they feel....
Ii) Great Britain is a geographical term and refers to the largest British Isle, and as rUK will retain more than two thirds of it, who's to stop us using the name (see I)
At the time I think I said it showed ukip appealed to the working class and someone picked me up I it... Now people are arguing my original point for me haha
However earlier in the year , I remember the SNP were asked how much it would cost to create new embassies etc in each country.
So to offset these cost, I imagine they might.
The next YouGov Indyref poll is for Friday's Times.
Be worth watching Rupert Murdoch's twitter feed on Thursday afternoon
I am in South East Asia - the Union Jack is a major fashion icon - yet few people know which country it is from - it's associated with young people and hipness - we'd be bonkers to change it.
UKIP on 25% with all. Wonder if it was a Euro poll? Good a place as any to start looking...
For example - the Channel Islands' relationship is with the Crown - not the UK - so no impact (apart from fleeing wealthy Scots driving up some house prices).
Other territories with relationships to the UK will continue to have relationships with rUK - the successor state.
Thanks so much for the enlightenment
Moeen Ali booed by the Indian supporters again today... The female commentator on r5 said it saddened her... Ravi bopara not booed
If only they were independent, how much better would they play?
It is just one poll and not even an ICM poll.
We survived the fall of Singapore.
Be good to get Gareth Bale on the left.
It's about the only silver lining I can think of. Pffft.
Just remember Scotland if you're seven nil down tonight "It's just like watching Brazil"
10 ish days to go and then the drivel stops.
Many years ago I had an entertaining late nite discussion on PB on the subject of what an Independent Scotland's tax position would be in respect of International Double Tax Treaties. I worked in a related area at the time and thought I knew a thing or two about it, but quickly discovered that the other two posters I was debating with knew a lot more. One was a law Professor at Oxford, the other a journalist at the FT. (NB - Be very careful who you get into an argument with on PB!)
We reached no definite conclusions but felt that in practice it would come down to the various views and common-sense of the participating Countries. In many cases it was likely that the Other Country would treat the newly formed Country, Scotland, as if it were privy to the existing UK Tax Treaty and things would carry on much as before. The danger however is that some Other Countries which were unhappy with the terms of their Treaty might treat it as an opportunity to renegotiate from scratch.
The UK has more Tax Treaties than any other country in the world. Many were framed when the UK was much more dominant in world affairs than it is now, and are a bit one-sided as a result. There could therefore be quite a number of Other Countries which would choose to take advantage of the new situation.
Similar considerations would apply, I should imagine, to Trade and other non-tax Treaties, but that's not my field and never has been.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Jack#Use_in_other_flags
So we'd be the only ones to change it?
Bonkers cubed to the nth degree...
Governing Scotland is going to be challenging, whatever the outcome. Although if it is a narrow Yes, I expect the capital flight to be immediate and dramatic. Followed shortly after that by news of jobs heading off.
Salmond with have a very short period basking in the glory - followed by months locked inside the McCOBRA room....
If it is a very close No, I guess the "One Last Heave" movement will be agitating for another vote next year. More betting opportunities. Yay!
If no wins but only just, this will continue and there will be no long term settlement.
If yes wins but only just, the massive change goes ahead and will be irreversible.
However if they vote yes, they will have to live with any economic disadvantages, as for some, this will be a price worth paying to gain their life long desire for Independence.
For many it will come as a shock, the repercussions, once you start to break the state asunder.
To me, the Union Flag represents one of the greatest and most enlightened nations in history. An island whose people's overcame their differences to forge a political union and went on to build the modern world. A benign nation that, even today, much of the world still looks up to for inspiration as a mother of liberty and defender of freedom.
And yet all we might be left with is snazzy variations of an obsolete design stamped on t-shirts - that young Koreans in Seoul think is "hip", but have no idea what it means, what it represents, or where it is from.
What a sad fate.
Like I said earlier, so many things are uncertain. I don't like it.
I wonder if Mr Kellner's "correction" has over-corrected itself - taking a genuine, but smaller, move and magnifying it?