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  • Hannan hot take, these are not far away brown people without dishwashers of whom we know little.


    Odious man. "They seem so like us"... Every time I see a victim of any war zone anywhere my first thought is there but for the grace of God.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    I don't know if I am supremely overjoyed that Germany is going to be spending a lot more on its military.

    I would be happy for the UK to spend more, if we do so primarily on sea power. That's where success lies for us. Always has been, always will be. We should support our allies by Naval means, not getting bogged down in continental conflicts.

    For the past 100 years the go to approach for land battles was the tank yet they can now be destroyed by a single $20,000 missile.

    The idea that the sea is any better off in the 21st century May be equally false.
    Yes. Look what’s happening to Russian armour against ‘cheap’ Turkish drones. How long can big lumbering ships remain relevant? They are just tanks at sea

    AI, cyberwarfare, robot soldiers, drones of all sizes, hypersonic missiles - that’s the future.

    And intelligence. One of the ‘heartening’ aspects of this awful nightmare is that US/UK intel has been bang on
    Ships are different. There’s a lot of ocean to get lost in, and to launch missiles and air attacks from afar. Think of them as platforms rather than combatants, unless it goes wrong.
    And yet I’ve read some naval experts who think the era of the aircraft carrier is coming to an end. Too big a target, too conspicuous. Nuke subs better, or laser-eyed fire-demons in space!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic, I think the UK should focus on providing safe refuges for the women and children who are escaping Ukraine to well equipped and safe border zones inside the neighbouring EU states. We should be generous in building and funding these. Priorities for asylum in the UK should include the most vulnerable, those with family/personal links, and, crucially, the political and military leadership of the Ukrainian Government, in exile, should that become necessary.

    This should be aimed as a temporary measure pending a restoration of independent Ukrainian Government.

    All other efforts should be focused on helping them defeat the invasion, because none of them really want to leave - they want to go back home.

    Ah yes, here it starts, ".... inside the neighbouring EU states."

    What the bellicose are really frightened of is refugees in their pretty towns and villages.

    Of course, people want to leave Ukraine. It is going to be a bloody & murderous place for some time, whatever happens.

    If I was a young person in Ukraine, I'd want to get the feck out of there and have a decent life somewhere else.

    War means refugees.
    It is the inevitable excuse making for why they *always* have to go somewhere else. The Government will try it too, but it doesn't wash in this instance.

    Asylum, as we all know, is a complex and contentious issue, and Britain doesn't have infinite room to accommodate all the people who might want to come here. However, the UK is also part of a large alliance taking concerted action to help Ukraine, and part of that is going to have to be giving shelter to refugees who, unless the Ukrainians somehow pull off a stellar victory against huge odds, are going to be exiled from home for years.

    Simply dumping several million people in the laps of the governments of the border states under such circumstances isn't acceptable.
    But, I also don't think we should encourage permanent resettlement (which is what that quickly becomes) that depopulates Ukraine and allows it to be colonised and pacified by Russia.

    The fight for Ukraine's future is in Ukraine.
    Ukraine is an impossible state, as presently constituted (its boundaries were drawn by a madman, Stalin).

    My (wild) guess is that endpoint of all this is an Eastern/Southern Ukraine de facto absorbed into Russia proper and a Northern/Western bit that is a rump independent Ukrainian state.

    I don't think Putin cares about the former bits of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

    This will be accompanied by ethnic cleansing, or at least very substantial population movements.

    If you don't like which bit of the country you ended up in, you will move or be killed. All this happened in the West after WW2, it is just delayed in the East.
    It was Kruschev who altered the boundaries by transferring Crimea in 1954, as part of his machinations to become boss.

    https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago
    It was formally ceded by Khruschev, but the idea was Stalin's.

    The boundaries of the Ukrainian SSR changed quite a bit over its 72 year history.
    As I believe the Kenyan ambassador to the UN remarked a few days back, virtually all of the borders in Africa were drawn by colonial powers, frequently cutting across linguistic and kinship boundaries that Africans, if left to their own devices, would've shown respect for. If they all started trying to steal parcels of land from one another on that basis, the whole continent would be consumed by warfare. If Russia is allowed to keep getting away with redrawing its boundaries based on historical grievances of this kind then it opens the door to total chaos.

    Besides which, AIUI every region of Ukraine - including Crimea, albeit by a narrower margin than most of the others - voted in favour of Ukrainian independence in 1991.
    Yes, strange that a plebiscite is the way to settle an issue, and yet the votes in 1991 can be ignored if doing so further's Russian interests.
    As I recollect, John Major was in power in 1991. He is not still in power because there have been elections. The world is not frozen in 1991.

    Yet, you don't think a boundary can ever be revisited.

    If there is an overwhelming majority in every part of the Ukraine for the present boundaries, surely a plebsicite will confirm that ?

    A powerful argument that the Ukrainian state can use to retain Donetsk and Luhansk, no?
    .
    It's a fantasy to believe there can be a free vote in areas of Ukraine occupied by the Russians.

    Edit: And besides, your talking point from a few days ago is that plebiscites do settle this issue for the long term, rather than creating the backwards and forwards conflict of war after war over the boundaries. You weren't arguing for every generation to redraw the borders with new plebiscites.

    You are embarrassingly all over the place with this, because you refuse to stand up to Russian aggression, and so you are casting around for any sort of figleaf to explain how it could easily have been avoided.
    There are ~ 20 million Russians in the Ukraine. That is a large minority. Whatever Ukraine does, it has to take that minority into account -- if it wishes to be a country drawn on the boundaries of the Ukrainian SSR.

    Plebiscites are conducted at a district or town level

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Schleswig_plebiscites

    You can see the patchwork of Danish and German areas. You draw a new boundary with that detailed information. The historic region of the Duchy of Schleswig/Slesvig was split.

    That was *not* done in 1991 for the Ukraine-Russia boundary, nor was it even what was asked.

    What I strongly object to in your post is the statement that I "refuse to stand up to Russian aggression,"

    Unless you propose to join the pb.com International Brigades, you are also not "standing up to Russian aggression "either.

    We are all just posting words on a blog.
    Objection: Russian speakers ≠ Russians, just as English speakers ≠ English.
    I understand that. I am not English myself.

    I used the demographics data of the Ukraine on wiki.
    And, as has been pointed out, large numbers of those Russian speakers want to be in Ukraine, not Russia.

    They voted that way in 1991 and the poll (below) shows that things haven't changed much.

    A big part of the reason for this invasion was that Putins attempts at "uprisings" in Ukraine kept not working due to lack of local support.
    And as has been pointed out, what better way to show that by a plebiscite.

    Given you endlessly post a crappy CNN poll, why not check the quality of the data by doing a proper job?

    I understand it would not have been easy, but it might have been easier than what we are now going to have to endure.
    Complaining when someone posts legitimate polling data on PB.... That's an interesting approach.

    The CNN poll used the standard methodologies for good polling - I did look. Interesting that you think it was "crappy" - why?

    I suppose we are back to "Any poll you don't like the result of, is an outlier"....

    Well, do you not accept that the regions in that map are rather big?

    Like the Crimea, which has a Russian majority, is absorbed into some gigantic (& arbitrary) region of south/central Ukraine.

    If you want to demonstrate that there was no appetite for Scottish independence, you could join Scotland with NE England and NW England and carry out a poll.

    It would give you the misleading result you want.
    Based on your criteria, the most "impossible" state in Europe is Russia itself. Do you think it should give independence to all the ethnic republics it contains?
    Yes. I do. If there is an ethnic grouping in Russia that wishes to be independent, then of course.

    I agree that Russia is an "impossible" state as well.
    Does that count for the UK then? Should Bradford be able to declare itself an independent Pakistani state?
    Should the Coastas be able to declare themselves an independent British State?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Spain announces military aid it’s sending via Poland to Ukraine 👇 https://twitter.com/desdelamoncloa/status/1497909440695181313



    although I can't see the Spanish PM in the picture. must be some mistake...

    Spanish military camouflage is the best in Nato.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    This from Dan Hannan - written two weeks ago - has aged like dripping down the back of a radiator https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1497843770678775813/photo/1
  • Another good video explaining the sanctions on Russia....

    The Economic Effects of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QlpTlz073k
  • North

    Lab 45%
    Con 32%
    LD 12%
    Grn 6%
    oth 5%

    Midlands

    Con 49%
    Lab 39%
    Grn 5%
    LD 5%
    oth 3%

    London

    Lab 52%
    Con 19%
    LD 15%
    Grn 7%
    oth 7%

    South

    Con 39%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 8%
    oth 6%

    Wales

    Lab 37%
    PC 21%
    Con 21%
    LD 15%
    Grn 2%
    oth 5%

    Scotland

    SNP 51%
    Lab 20%
    Con 17%
    Grn 4%
    LD 4%
    oth 4%

    GB

    Lab 38%
    Con 34%
    LD 11%
    Grn 6%
    SNP 4%
    PC 1%
    oth 5%

    (Opinium/The Observer; 23-25 February; 2,068)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    I don't know if I am supremely overjoyed that Germany is going to be spending a lot more on its military.

    I would be happy for the UK to spend more, if we do so primarily on sea power. That's where success lies for us. Always has been, always will be. We should support our allies by Naval means, not getting bogged down in continental conflicts.

    For the past 100 years the go to approach for land battles was the tank yet they can now be destroyed by a single $20,000 missile.

    The idea that the sea is any better off in the 21st century May be equally false.
    Yes. Look what’s happening to Russian armour against ‘cheap’ Turkish drones. How long can big lumbering ships remain relevant? They are just tanks at sea

    AI, cyberwarfare, robot soldiers, drones of all sizes, hypersonic missiles - that’s the future.

    And intelligence. One of the ‘heartening’ aspects of this awful nightmare is that US/UK intel has been bang on
    Ships are different. There’s a lot of ocean to get lost in, and to launch missiles and air attacks from afar. Think of them as platforms rather than combatants, unless it goes wrong.
    And yet I’ve read some naval experts who think the era of the aircraft carrier is coming to an end. Too big a target, too conspicuous. Nuke subs better, or laser-eyed fire-demons in space!
    They said that quite frequently in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s.....

    In a big ocean a ship 1,000 feet long isn't actually much more conspicuous than one 500 foot long.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    edited February 2022
    Cue the 'Merkel has made a massive mistake encouraging hundreds of thousands refugees to enter Germany' merchants to get started. Or not.

    https://twitter.com/hemicker/status/1497877126338514944?s=20&t=8-LL_L9XuBxOObviowM3rQ

    Edit: just realised, it'll be 'they're just making it easier for those refugees to come to the Yookay'!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,993

    Fcuk, Oxfordshire is the 'frontline', the Rooshians are here!


    Would Johnson in military fatigues have worked better?
    Might have got Nadine feeling a bit funny downstairs, but as for the rest of us..


    Oh wow Johnson porn! It's not just Nadine, doubtless a few on here getting a little excited in the trouser department with that "cut out and keep" momento.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1497564078658801664

    "Speaking just as a media consumer, I've been kind of surprised by the inefficacy of Russia's propaganda efforts so far. People who know more about this than I do: Are the Russians just not even trying to shape Western perceptions of the war, or are they shockingly bad at it?"

    A valid point, where is the ruthlessly effective social media op which put Trump in the WH, preserved the Union and got us out of the other one? Because all I am seeing anywhere is @PJohnson. Perhaps i have the wrong sort of twitter feed.

    Yes. That adds to the idea this stupid war was a one-man decision by Putin, dumped on his alarmed advisors and generals at the last minute. With much dissent. No one had prepared for it, the bots and trolls were blindsided

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    Nigelb said:

    Russian friends sharing texts with me of their colleagues in Russia's public service resigning over this invasion. Widespread disgust among Russian government employees over Putin's decision.
    https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1497904638678470658

    On Monday morning you have to wonder how many Russians will be thinking "How did our 'peacekeeping' mission cause a run on the banks...?"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    edited February 2022

    I know there is a lot of interest in opinion polls and whether Starmer with win through, but how the world will have changed since GE19

    Brexit happened, covid happened, and unbelievably war in Europe happened, and this changes everything and in view of the lavish promises of additional billions for the NHS, education, law and order, climate change, and now military sprending has anyone stopped for a minute to ask where is all the money coming from

    Wealth taxes are possible but they will not touch this increased spending, and what if we have, as likely, much higher interest rates

    I am completely on the fence for GE 24 as I could vote for any of the three main parties( not Plaid though) and how this shakes out will be fascinating, and of course Boris is more than likely to be gone

    “ I could vote for any of the three main parties( not Plaid though) ” top trolling. 🙂 with 49K! PB posts, you are certainly getting the hang of it

    I woke up more resilient this morning after spending evening away from it with friends. It was big shock to system last week this horrible war in Europe was happening, shock and horror can test resilience against getting down. Going out now for Roast Beef and Yorkshires and I think will turn iPhone off
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    Russia has yet to secure a city in Ukraine. Casualties higher than anticipated. Sanctions harsher than expected. Life is going to start getting harder for ordinary Russians and the truth of this war will get harder to keep from a population with so many close links to Ukraine
    https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1497916418360291331
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903
    edited February 2022

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed. Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU? Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"? For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    No shit...

    🔺 Update: Downing Street is drawing up plans to offer Ukrainians refuge in Britain after a minister was criticised for suggesting they could apply to come and pick fruit and vegetables
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/downing-street-draws-up-plans-to-resettle-ukrainians-in-britain-brdv969dp?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1645965923
  • Hannan hot take, these are not far away brown people without dishwashers of whom we know little.


    Odious man. "They seem so like us"... Every time I see a victim of any war zone anywhere my first thought is there but for the grace of God.
    Yeah, I may be hopelessly naive but I try to start on the basis of shit stuff is happening to people, I am also people.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    Speaking to a military source who says the battle in Irpin is over for now - under Ukrainian control. He also says the Territorial Defense Forces are playing a big role. #Ukraine https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1497864887715966980
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russian friends sharing texts with me of their colleagues in Russia's public service resigning over this invasion. Widespread disgust among Russian government employees over Putin's decision.
    https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1497904638678470658

    On Monday morning you have to wonder how many Russians will be thinking "How did our 'peacekeeping' mission cause a run on the banks...?"
    Also, ‘how come I suddenly can’t fly anywhere in Europe?’
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    Today EU country after EU country is closing its airspace to Russia. Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany and Belgium made the announcement in the last couple of hours. The move is expected to be formalised on an EU-wide level this afternoon
    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1497917320303362048
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed -

    Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU?

    Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"?

    For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    It worked fine for the entire Cold War, when everyone in Europe was spending a far higher percentage of GDP than 2% on the military.

    2% would just mean that Germany would have an airforce with more than a couple of planes that actually fly.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    I don't know if I am supremely overjoyed that Germany is going to be spending a lot more on its military.

    I would be happy for the UK to spend more, if we do so primarily on sea power. That's where success lies for us. Always has been, always will be. We should support our allies by Naval means, not getting bogged down in continental conflicts.

    For the past 100 years the go to approach for land battles was the tank yet they can now be destroyed by a single $20,000 missile.

    The idea that the sea is any better off in the 21st century May be equally false.
    Yes. Look what’s happening to Russian armour against ‘cheap’ Turkish drones. How long can big lumbering ships remain relevant? They are just tanks at sea

    AI, cyberwarfare, robot soldiers, drones of all sizes, hypersonic missiles - that’s the future.

    And intelligence. One of the ‘heartening’ aspects of this awful nightmare is that US/UK intel has been bang on
    I recall reading somewhere that towards the end of the (First) Cold War the US Navy refused to participate in wargaming all-out conventional war scenarios as they consistently resulted in the entire American (and everyone else’s) surface fleet being sunk within the first couple of days.

    Similarly a few years back the Americans held an exercise in the Gulf simulating war with Iran where a US Marine Corps general was assigned as “red” commander and used known Revolutionary Guard tactics to “swarm” warships and take them out. The US Navy promptly suspended the exercise and demanded it be restarted with the USMC tactics disallowed.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Russia has yet to secure a city in Ukraine. Casualties higher than anticipated. Sanctions harsher than expected. Life is going to start getting harder for ordinary Russians and the truth of this war will get harder to keep from a population with so many close links to Ukraine
    https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1497916418360291331

    with a run on banks only hours away!
  • Scott_xP said:

    This from Dan Hannan - written two weeks ago - has aged like dripping down the back of a radiator https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1497843770678775813/photo/1

    Not just an rsole, a dumb rsole.
  • Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him
  • Hannan hot take, these are not far away brown people without dishwashers of whom we know little.


    Odious man. "They seem so like us"... Every time I see a victim of any war zone anywhere my first thought is there but for the grace of God.
    Yeah, I may be hopelessly naive but I try to start on the basis of shit stuff is happening to people, I am also people.
    Hannan dog-whistling. They’re all at it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Hannan hot take, these are not far away brown people without dishwashers of whom we know little.


    Odious man. "They seem so like us"... Every time I see a victim of any war zone anywhere my first thought is there but for the grace of God.
    Yeah, I may be hopelessly naive but I try to start on the basis of shit stuff is happening to people, I am also people.
    There were similar thing written about the Yugoslav wars - that it seemed so surreal that its as happening, again, in Europe....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed. Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU? Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"? For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    There is a third alternative. An overarching European “NATO” which can include non EU and non NATO powers. Meaning the UK, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland can all be part of the structure. That makes much more sense than relying on the ponderous bureaucracy of the EU - which excludes the UK, one of the three main militaries in Europe
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    Peter Hitchens in The Mail - that's The Daily Fail squared or something?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    edited February 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1497564078658801664

    "Speaking just as a media consumer, I've been kind of surprised by the inefficacy of Russia's propaganda efforts so far. People who know more about this than I do: Are the Russians just not even trying to shape Western perceptions of the war, or are they shockingly bad at it?"

    A valid point, where is the ruthlessly effective social media op which put Trump in the WH, preserved the Union and got us out of the other one? Because all I am seeing anywhere is @PJohnson. Perhaps i have the wrong sort of twitter feed.

    Out of curiosity (and, perversely, because it's proposed that it be banned), I had a look at the rt.com website yesterday. It's curiously amateurish, like a reasonable effort by an undergraduate. To my surprise it's not totally one-sided - the Western measures and criticisms are reported extensively, alongside the Russian statements, but the commentaries (including one by a former UKIP MEP pontificating on the French electoral system) look unedited for quality. It does have a few snippets that I've not seen in the western press - e.g. apparently a petition requiring the Finnish Parliament to discuss NATO membership has reached the required 50,000 signatures, which is a development that one wouldn't think Russia would welcome. It's certainly not Trump-style effective propaganda, and I can think of more obviously biased publications that we all take for granted, so I wouldn't make it illegal. It's just not very good.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    "Video of completely destroyed Russian column in Bucha":

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497917235540676612
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,921
    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    Looks like a very big increase in German defence spending.

    Germany often commits to things like this, then doesn't follow through. I'll believe it when I see it.
    Are they going to do what the US does and start including healthcare spending for veterans as part of their defence budget?
    Doubt it.

    Maybe sixty years ago that would have made a difference, but Germany has rather fewer combat veterans nowadays.
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed. Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU? Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"? For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    There is a third alternative. An overarching European “NATO” which can include non EU and non NATO powers. Meaning the UK, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland can all be part of the structure. That makes much more sense than relying on the ponderous bureaucracy of the EU - which excludes the UK, one of the three main militaries in Europe
    And Turkey and Iceland, both of whome are pretty fundamental to European security.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    pigeon said:

    Treat with caution, but Ukrainian info obviously less likely to be bent than Russian:

    Why? The Ukrainian state is in an existential struggle for survival. They will lie their arses off if they think it will help.
    yes its a bit strange to think the ukrainians are suddenly so angelic they will not lie in the face of trying to keep free. Wishful thinking by some on here. I think even us Brits (that invented cricket!) told porkies about having the capability of a weapon to make the Channel an inferno to prevent a german invasion
    Tangentially, what was the perverted science Churchill was on about? "But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science." I always sort of assumed he meant nukes but a. he is talking about after losing the war and b. he said around this time that our existing explosives were quite explosive enough, no need to explore that avenue
    I always read that as ‘race science’
    Wasn’t Churchill, like many of the great and good, an early adherent of eugenics? It would be nice to think he’d had his eyes opened, yet ‘Keep England white’ makes me skeptical.
    I always took "perverted science" to be a reference to loathsome medical experiments.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    IshmaelZ said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    Have an hour off for lunch. You have earned it.
    Potato with a clove of garlic stuck in it like Guy Burgess in An Englishman Abroad.
  • PJohnson said:

    Great article by Liam hallinan in telegraph about how well prepared putin is

    The West's cost of living crisis gave Vladimir Putin impetus to strike

    Imposing harsh sanctions on Russia is tough when Britain and US are struggling with inflation

    LIAM HALLIGAN27 February 2022 • 6:00am

    Why did Vladimir Putin decide now was the time to conquer Ukraine? Russia has for years resented the Western leanings of this country of 44 million, which covers an area bigger than France.

    Last week, the Russian President surprised many when he suddenly forced the issue, bringing his festering sense of grievance over Ukraine to a head in the most ruthless fashion.

    But consider the global economic backdrop, and various energy supply deals the Kremlin has cut over recent months and years – particularly with China – and the timing of this Russian incursion, from Putin’s perspective, makes brutal sense.

    Russia provides around 40pc of the natural gas used across Western Europe, while accounting for 10pc of the world’s oil supply. These stark facts, previously of interest only to energy industry insiders, are suddenly common knowledge. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the issue of Western energy security into sharp relief.

    Gas is the main tool. But it's an odd time to strike. It's nearly the end of winter.
    He had to wait for end of Winter Olympics.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    edited February 2022
    European countries should threaten to boycott the Qatar World Cup if Russia is not thrown out .

    And if other countries also threaten a boycott FIFA would have no choice . Russia being thrown out would have a big impact on the Russian psyche .



  • Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This from Dan Hannan - written two weeks ago - has aged like dripping down the back of a radiator https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1497843770678775813/photo/1

    If there was a computer game called Bell End, where you had to do battle with infinitely spawning bell ends, the end of level boss would be Dan Hannan. He is the great chieftan o' the bell end race. He is the gold, silver, and bronze medallist of the bell end Olympics. Ask not for whom the bell end toils: he toils for himself. If a bell end had a bell end, and that bell end had a bell on the end, it would be Dan Hannan.
    Hahaha !
  • Another good video explaining the sanctions on Russia....

    The Economic Effects of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QlpTlz073k

    Experts on YouTube again show how crap the MSM are. The MSM spend days screaming SWIFT, block SWIFT, SWIFT, SWIFT, SWIFT, did I mention SWIFT.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited February 2022
    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    However good a reading it is it wouldn't make sense. It would take a very significant act of overt aggression to justify invasion, and not even Putin has come up with such a reason, instead spending his time moaning about the existence of Ukraine as a state, NATO expansion 25 years ago (which cannot therefore be a pretext for action taking place right now) and defence of the 'independent' republics, which would not necessitate assaulting Kyiv or much of the rest o fthe country.

    I'm sorry, but no one has yet advanced a plausible explanation of how talk, diplomatic alliances and vague fears of 'threat' somehow provoke hundreds of thousands of troops to invade.

    Next he'll be moaning about group think and how unfair it is that people criticise him.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_xP said:

    Speaking to a military source who says the battle in Irpin is over for now - under Ukrainian control. He also says the Territorial Defense Forces are playing a big role. #Ukraine https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1497864887715966980

    Looks like Melitopol (pop: 150k) is the only city to fall and remain occupied for over 12 hours so far, question is how good the insurgency is, if they offer some decent resistance that's 2-5,000 russian tied up and out of the war.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    eek said:

    Fcuk, Oxfordshire is the 'frontline', the Rooshians are here!


    Would Johnson in military fatigues have worked better?
    Might have got Nadine feeling a bit funny downstairs, but as for the rest of us..


    Why is it every time I see Bozo in a photo I immediately think of Benny Hill?
    Matt Lucas. In fact Boris there does a better Matt Lucas than Matt does a Boris
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    Peter Hitchens in The Mail - that's The Daily Fail squared or something?
    Does Peter Hitchens actually believe that? 🤭. Or is it he’s a hack with bills to pay, because seriously if RT published that there would be calls in parliament to shut Putin’s mouthpiece down
  • nico679 said:

    European countries should threaten to boycott the Qatar World Cup if Russia is not thrown out .

    And if other countries also threaten a boycott FIFA would have no choice . Russia being thrown out would have a big impact on the Russian psyche .

    Russia needs to get the full South Africa apartheid treatment. Pariahs.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,843

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed -

    Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU?

    Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"?

    For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    It worked fine for the entire Cold War, when everyone in Europe was spending a far higher percentage of GDP than 2% on the military.

    2% would just mean that Germany would have an airforce with more than a couple of planes that actually fly.
    Indeed. Though I do have a slight worry that it’s about to become apparent to Putin that he no longer commands the third shock army or outnumbers NATO in conventional forces; and he’ll throw a mardy. We really need his generals to get rid.
  • Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Another good video explaining the sanctions on Russia....

    The Economic Effects of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QlpTlz073k

    Experts on YouTube again show how crap the MSM are. The MSM spend days screaming SWIFT, block SWIFT, SWIFT, SWIFT, SWIFT, did I mention SWIFT.
    SWIFT became the football. First blocking it was BAD - because some European countries didn't like it. Now blocking it is GOOD, because the water down block is OK the Hungary....

    Think of al the stupid stuff about COVID that got printed. Why should they suddenly get international relations and finance right?

    https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2021/01/18/gell-mann-amnesia/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    Peter Hitchens in The Mail - that's The Daily Fail squared or something?
    Does Peter Hitchens actually believe that? 🤭. Or is it he’s a hack with bills to pay, because seriously if RT published that there would be calls in parliament to shut Putin’s mouthpiece down
    That kind of analysis is as useful as someone arguing in 1940 that we brought the war on ourselves with the the Versailles Treaty.
  • The biopic rights for Zelensky must be worth a fortune. Didn't realise he won Ukrainian Strictly as well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlJywp7E3Gw
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    First footage of the rumoured destroyed Chechen convoy in Irpin?

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497918774657355778

    Looks to be all Russian to me, probably hundreds of deaths in the vehicles pictured.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed. Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU? Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"? For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    There is a third alternative. An overarching European “NATO” which can include non EU and non NATO powers. Meaning the UK, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland can all be part of the structure. That makes much more sense than relying on the ponderous bureaucracy of the EU - which excludes the UK, one of the three main militaries in Europe
    NATO+?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    Wasps however exhibit more sanity than Putin
  • nico679 said:

    European countries should threaten to boycott the Qatar World Cup if Russia is not thrown out .

    And if other countries also threaten a boycott FIFA would have no choice . Russia being thrown out would have a big impact on the Russian psyche .



    Agreed, just host a Euros instead in summer 23 if Fifa don't play ball.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    kjh said:

    eek said:

    Fcuk, Oxfordshire is the 'frontline', the Rooshians are here!


    Would Johnson in military fatigues have worked better?
    Might have got Nadine feeling a bit funny downstairs, but as for the rest of us..


    Why is it every time I see Bozo in a photo I immediately think of Benny Hill?
    Matt Lucas. In fact Boris there does a better Matt Lucas than Matt does a Boris
    Okay then how should he have dressed? The Ukrainians think we are led by Winston Churchill and they celebrate with God Save The Queen each time a UK weapon blows up Russian tank 👍🏻 So Boris should be there in the field in the dark in a dinner jacket?
    I’m channeling Carry on up the Kyhber - just popping out for a moment to see the bombs off dear.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    The biopic rights for Zelensky must be worth a fortune. Didn't realise he won Ukrainian Strictly as well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlJywp7E3Gw

    Include the skit of him pretending to play the piano with his penis?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbmZrzN3WFE
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed -

    Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU?

    Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"?

    For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    It worked fine for the entire Cold War, when everyone in Europe was spending a far higher percentage of GDP than 2% on the military.

    2% would just mean that Germany would have an airforce with more than a couple of planes that actually fly.
    Even 2% across the board should give NATO some pretty impressive firepower. Even now, after years of defence cuts, a united NATO still has terrifying military power.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    You think a Peter Hitchens article in the Mail is "full of much wisdom"?

    OK. Thanks for telling us everything about your mental state.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    rpjs said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    I don't know if I am supremely overjoyed that Germany is going to be spending a lot more on its military.

    I would be happy for the UK to spend more, if we do so primarily on sea power. That's where success lies for us. Always has been, always will be. We should support our allies by Naval means, not getting bogged down in continental conflicts.

    For the past 100 years the go to approach for land battles was the tank yet they can now be destroyed by a single $20,000 missile.

    The idea that the sea is any better off in the 21st century May be equally false.
    Yes. Look what’s happening to Russian armour against ‘cheap’ Turkish drones. How long can big lumbering ships remain relevant? They are just tanks at sea

    AI, cyberwarfare, robot soldiers, drones of all sizes, hypersonic missiles - that’s the future.

    And intelligence. One of the ‘heartening’ aspects of this awful nightmare is that US/UK intel has been bang on
    I recall reading somewhere that towards the end of the (First) Cold War the US Navy refused to participate in wargaming all-out conventional war scenarios as they consistently resulted in the entire American (and everyone else’s) surface fleet being sunk within the first couple of days.

    Similarly a few years back the Americans held an exercise in the Gulf simulating war with Iran where a US Marine Corps general was assigned as “red” commander and used known Revolutionary Guard tactics to “swarm” warships and take them out. The US Navy promptly suspended the exercise and demanded it be restarted with the USMC tactics disallowed.
    That's not what happened at Millennium Challenge 2002. Lt Gen Van Riper simulated the sinking of a CVN with a mass cruise misslie attack that oversaturated the CSG's AD capacity.

    That has somehow mutated into in the Internet truism that you can sink carriers with a 'swarm' of pedalos.

    In the real world nobody has damaged a carrier in combat since 1945. The end of the age of the carriers will come as it did for battleships but not yet and not soon.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    What you do is crush the wasp.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Putin Sock Puppet coming on PB....on a hiding to nothing. Its one thing trying to spread misinformation on tw@tter and facebook, but PB, we don't even let regulars get away with typos / grammatical errors, or claims of famous films being Christmas ones, let alone factual (mis)information go....Its the political equivalent of having a quiz off with the EggHeads.

    Pineapple is good on ALL pizza
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,903

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    West Germany formed the backbone of NATO's conventional forces during the Cold War so it's wrong to see rearmament as a totally new thing that requires deeper European integration.
    You don't mean it's wrong you mean it's not necessarily right. Which is true. But it is preferable (to put it mildly) that a large increase in European military power is not accompanied by the EU fracturing (a la Brexit) into separate and competing flavours of populist nationalism. There might be only a small chance of this but it has a potentially enormous downside - so it's worth flagging up, I think.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    kle4 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    However good a reading it is it wouldn't make sense. It would take a very significant act of overt aggression to justify invasion, and not even Putin has come up with such a reason, instead spending his time moaning about the existence of Ukraine as a state, NATO expansion 25 years ago (which cannot therefore be a pretext for action taking place right now) and defence of the 'independent' republics, which would not necessitate assaulting Kyiv or much of the rest o fthe country.

    I'm sorry, but no one has yet advanced a plausible explanation of how talk, diplomatic alliances and vague fears of 'threat' somehow provoke hundreds of thousands of troops to invade.

    Next he'll be moaning about group think and how unfair it is that people criticise him.
    Hitchens is being a twat.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    Peter Hitchens in The Mail - that's The Daily Fail squared or something?
    Does Peter Hitchens actually believe that? 🤭. Or is it he’s a hack with bills to pay, because seriously if RT published that there would be calls in parliament to shut Putin’s mouthpiece down
    I think he is actually serious, enabled and supported by the fact that he gets a tribe of fools who clap at his utterances. That and lots of money.

    If someone paid you 6 figures a year to spout obnoxious crap, part time, and lots of people giving you likes.... well, you'd be tempted right?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    nico679 said:

    European countries should threaten to boycott the Qatar World Cup if Russia is not thrown out .

    And if other countries also threaten a boycott FIFA would have no choice . Russia being thrown out would have a big impact on the Russian psyche .



    Agreed, just host a Euros instead in summer 23 if Fifa don't play ball.
    Why is it even a question?
    If Ukraine didn't qualify gift them the slot Russia were occupying
  • Farooq said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    For this low-grade rubbish? Free would be expensive.
    Even PB's repeat masquerader could manage better.
    Unless Eadronic is doing his bit for the war effort by portraying a Russian astroturfer as the least persuasive thing since Theresa May went knocking doors on Deeside?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed. Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU? Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"? For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    There is a third alternative. An overarching European “NATO” which can include non EU and non NATO powers. Meaning the UK, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland can all be part of the structure. That makes much more sense than relying on the ponderous bureaucracy of the EU - which excludes the UK, one of the three main militaries in Europe
    NATO+?
    NATO always considered "Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland" as associate members. Certainly Sweden and Finland were closely consulted and integrated into Cold War planning. For Iceland see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap. Norway is a member of NATO....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    Dura_Ace said:

    rpjs said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    I don't know if I am supremely overjoyed that Germany is going to be spending a lot more on its military.

    I would be happy for the UK to spend more, if we do so primarily on sea power. That's where success lies for us. Always has been, always will be. We should support our allies by Naval means, not getting bogged down in continental conflicts.

    For the past 100 years the go to approach for land battles was the tank yet they can now be destroyed by a single $20,000 missile.

    The idea that the sea is any better off in the 21st century May be equally false.
    Yes. Look what’s happening to Russian armour against ‘cheap’ Turkish drones. How long can big lumbering ships remain relevant? They are just tanks at sea

    AI, cyberwarfare, robot soldiers, drones of all sizes, hypersonic missiles - that’s the future.

    And intelligence. One of the ‘heartening’ aspects of this awful nightmare is that US/UK intel has been bang on
    I recall reading somewhere that towards the end of the (First) Cold War the US Navy refused to participate in wargaming all-out conventional war scenarios as they consistently resulted in the entire American (and everyone else’s) surface fleet being sunk within the first couple of days.

    Similarly a few years back the Americans held an exercise in the Gulf simulating war with Iran where a US Marine Corps general was assigned as “red” commander and used known Revolutionary Guard tactics to “swarm” warships and take them out. The US Navy promptly suspended the exercise and demanded it be restarted with the USMC tactics disallowed.
    That's not what happened at Millennium Challenge 2002. Lt Gen Van Riper simulated the sinking of a CVN with a mass cruise misslie attack that oversaturated the CSG's AD capacity.

    That has somehow mutated into in the Internet truism that you can sink carriers with a 'swarm' of pedalos.

    In the real world nobody has damaged a carrier in combat since 1945. The end of the age of the carriers will come as it did for battleships but not yet and not soon.
    Don’t carriers need lots of other ships protecting them though? So you are not just committing to cost of each carrier, but to growing size of navy to protect the carrier?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russian friends sharing texts with me of their colleagues in Russia's public service resigning over this invasion. Widespread disgust among Russian government employees over Putin's decision.
    https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1497904638678470658

    On Monday morning you have to wonder how many Russians will be thinking "How did our 'peacekeeping' mission cause a run on the banks...?"
    How was an apartment block in Kiev oppressing our brethren in the Donbas?
  • Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    However good a reading it is it wouldn't make sense. It would take a very significant act of overt aggression to justify invasion, and not even Putin has come up with such a reason, instead spending his time moaning about the existence of Ukraine as a state, NATO expansion 25 years ago (which cannot therefore be a pretext for action taking place right now) and defence of the 'independent' republics, which would not necessitate assaulting Kyiv or much of the rest o fthe country.

    I'm sorry, but no one has yet advanced a plausible explanation of how talk, diplomatic alliances and vague fears of 'threat' somehow provoke hundreds of thousands of troops to invade.

    Next he'll be moaning about group think and how unfair it is that people criticise him.
    Hitchens is being a twat.
    Hitchens is being a Peter Hitchens.
  • kle4 said:

    The biopic rights for Zelensky must be worth a fortune. Didn't realise he won Ukrainian Strictly as well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlJywp7E3Gw

    Include the skit of him pretending to play the piano with his penis?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbmZrzN3WFE
    He is clearly a man of many talents, so what makes you think he is pretending.....
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    "Video of completely destroyed Russian column in Bucha":

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497917235540676612

    Sh*t

    That looks like very fears fighting is going on there.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed. Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU? Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"? For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    There is a third alternative. An overarching European “NATO” which can include non EU and non NATO powers. Meaning the UK, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland can all be part of the structure. That makes much more sense than relying on the ponderous bureaucracy of the EU - which excludes the UK, one of the three main militaries in Europe
    NATO+?
    “European Defence Community”?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    philiph said:

    Putin Sock Puppet coming on PB....on a hiding to nothing. Its one thing trying to spread misinformation on tw@tter and facebook, but PB, we don't even let regulars get away with typos / grammatical errors, or claims of famous films being Christmas ones, let alone factual (mis)information go....Its the political equivalent of having a quiz off with the EggHeads.

    Pineapple is good on ALL pizza
    Bets enjoyed while listening to Radiohead while programming in Python.

    With occasional pauses to beat a fox to death with a baseball bat. In your wife's kimono.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Wow - Chancellor Scholz has just announced that Germany will be spending 2% plus of its GDP on defence every year from now on. That is huge news. It means that the German defence budget becomes the biggest in Europe in purely monetary terms.

    If Europe is to tool up instead of relying on America it makes it all the more important imo that the EU survives and prospers rather than fractures into competing nationalistic countries all thinking they're special and trying to make themselves great.
    I'm a fan of the EU for various reasons, and I think it's a net benefit, but this take is wrong.

    Look at how the UK has been willing and able to help and to cooperate with other countries, inside and outside the EU, in response to the Ukraine crisis. It is possible for democratic countries to organise their mutual defence - they only have to have the will to do so, and it is that willingness that is the key thing, not whether they are part of a loose federation.
    The reaction to this crisis is one thing but I'm talking about the overall situation that could emerge if America is on its way out (as guarantor of peace in Europe) and Europe itself has to step up. In that event, in which of the following would a great big dollop of new European military might be best managed. Under a common European foreign & defence policy with a strong EU? Or with the EU collapsing as countries go parochial and decide to "take back control"? For me it's a no-brainer and the pitfalls and dangers of the second are obvious.
    There is a third alternative. An overarching European “NATO” which can include non EU and non NATO powers. Meaning the UK, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland can all be part of the structure. That makes much more sense than relying on the ponderous bureaucracy of the EU - which excludes the UK, one of the three main militaries in Europe
    NATO+?
    NATO always considered "Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Iceland" as associate members. Certainly Sweden and Finland were closely consulted and integrated into Cold War planning. For Iceland see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap. Norway is a member of NATO....
    As is Iceland.
  • kle4 said:

    The biopic rights for Zelensky must be worth a fortune. Didn't realise he won Ukrainian Strictly as well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlJywp7E3Gw

    Include the skit of him pretending to play the piano with his penis?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbmZrzN3WFE
    He is clearly a man of many talents, so what makes you think he is pretending.....
    Unfortunately I tend to think that comedians are already far too acknowledged legislators of the world, after this the fcukers are going to be unbearable.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    Fcuk, Oxfordshire is the 'frontline', the Rooshians are here!


    Would Johnson in military fatigues have worked better?
    Might have got Nadine feeling a bit funny downstairs, but as for the rest of us..


    Why is it every time I see Bozo in a photo I immediately think of Benny Hill?
    Matt Lucas. In fact Boris there does a better Matt Lucas than Matt does a Boris
    Okay then how should he have dressed? The Ukrainians think we are led by Winston Churchill and they celebrate with God Save The Queen each time a UK weapon blows up Russian tank 👍🏻 So Boris should be there in the field in the dark in a dinner jacket?
    I’m channeling Carry on up the Kyhber - just popping out for a moment to see the bombs off dear.
    Good grief I wasn't making any point at all other than the expression on his face looks like Matt Lucas. That's it. Nothing about his dress.

    However if you do want my opinion, no politician should dress in military fatigues unless they have earnt them. It makes them look like pillocks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    "Video of completely destroyed Russian column in Bucha":

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497917235540676612

    My word. There’s a few videos of these smashed Russian columns - I thought for a while they were just different angles of the same scene. But that one is new and definitely different.

    How do the Ukrainians get the firepower to do THAT? Must be a drone strike?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    Not sure annoyance merits a full blown military invasion.
    If it were the bloke with the dirt bike down the street would be worried.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    Hitch - and you - seem to be of the view that there are certain groups of people with special rights. That Russia has some God given right to interfere with its neighbours. It's none of Russia's business if the Ukraine joins the EU or NATO. They may not like it, but ultimately that's a decision for the countries of NATO and the people of the Ukraine. Russia doesn't get a say.

    Sadly a lot of people ascribe to that view, though they may not realise it. Anyone who has talked of a Russian sphere is buying into it.

    It might well have been less awkward if some nations were content to limit their options, but there's no getting away from that if they want to go down a path that is their affair, and it isn't anyone else's fault but the aggressor if they'd violently prevent that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Dura_Ace said:

    rpjs said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    I don't know if I am supremely overjoyed that Germany is going to be spending a lot more on its military.

    I would be happy for the UK to spend more, if we do so primarily on sea power. That's where success lies for us. Always has been, always will be. We should support our allies by Naval means, not getting bogged down in continental conflicts.

    For the past 100 years the go to approach for land battles was the tank yet they can now be destroyed by a single $20,000 missile.

    The idea that the sea is any better off in the 21st century May be equally false.
    Yes. Look what’s happening to Russian armour against ‘cheap’ Turkish drones. How long can big lumbering ships remain relevant? They are just tanks at sea

    AI, cyberwarfare, robot soldiers, drones of all sizes, hypersonic missiles - that’s the future.

    And intelligence. One of the ‘heartening’ aspects of this awful nightmare is that US/UK intel has been bang on
    I recall reading somewhere that towards the end of the (First) Cold War the US Navy refused to participate in wargaming all-out conventional war scenarios as they consistently resulted in the entire American (and everyone else’s) surface fleet being sunk within the first couple of days.

    Similarly a few years back the Americans held an exercise in the Gulf simulating war with Iran where a US Marine Corps general was assigned as “red” commander and used known Revolutionary Guard tactics to “swarm” warships and take them out. The US Navy promptly suspended the exercise and demanded it be restarted with the USMC tactics disallowed.
    That's not what happened at Millennium Challenge 2002. Lt Gen Van Riper simulated the sinking of a CVN with a mass cruise misslie attack that oversaturated the CSG's AD capacity.

    That has somehow mutated into in the Internet truism that you can sink carriers with a 'swarm' of pedalos.

    In the real world nobody has damaged a carrier in combat since 1945. The end of the age of the carriers will come as it did for battleships but not yet and not soon.
    Don’t carriers need lots of other ships protecting them though? So you are not just committing to cost of each carrier, but to growing size of navy to protect the carrier?
    More than the group of ships combine capabilities to defend themselves against the various threats above and below water, while the carrier is able to project power (make other people really, really unhappy) over an area 500 miles in radius.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.
  • Leon said:

    "Video of completely destroyed Russian column in Bucha":

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497917235540676612

    My word. There’s a few videos of these smashed Russian columns - I thought for a while they were just different angles of the same scene. But that one is new and definitely different.

    How do the Ukrainians get the firepower to do THAT? Must be a drone strike?
    If there an easy way to distinguish Russian and Ukrainian vehicles?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    WATO reporting large numbers of Russians taken prisoner in the assault on Kharkiv.
  • Leon said:

    "Video of completely destroyed Russian column in Bucha":

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497917235540676612

    My word. There’s a few videos of these smashed Russian columns - I thought for a while they were just different angles of the same scene. But that one is new and definitely different.

    How do the Ukrainians get the firepower to do THAT? Must be a drone strike?
    Looks like most of the village through which they were travelling has been taken out as well. Are drone strikes capable of doing that?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Chameleon said:

    "‼️Belarus is preparing an air assault on Ukraine! ‼️
    Trusted sources in Belarusian opposition journalists inform units of Belarusian special forces prepare paratrooper assault in the Kyiv & Zhytomyr directions

    Thus, Belarus is starting an invasion of Ukraine with its own forces"

    Terrifying for Ukraine, but doesn't seem like a good sign for Russia either.

    Prompted by massive Russian VDV losses?
    What’s their excuse?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    My summer job at Uni was taking certificates of deposit round banks in the City.
    Just dawned I am a fully trained human proto-SWIFT.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    rcs1000 said:

    PJohnson said:

    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Chameleon said:

    PJohnson said:

    Article by Peter hitchens in mail suggesting west has deliberately provoked this war with russia. It is very good reading even if you disagree with him

    I hope that they're at least paying you for this.
    Read the article it is very good and full of much wisdom. Hitches view is if you annoy a wasp you can't blame the wasp if it stings you
    Hitch - and you - seem to be of the view that there are certain groups of people with special rights. That Russia has some God given right to interfere with its neighbours. It's none of Russia's business if the Ukraine joins the EU or NATO. They may not like it, but ultimately that's a decision for the countries of NATO and the people of the Ukraine. Russia doesn't get a say.

    And “interfere” is a very tame way of describing it too, considering truth is breaking international law and treaties they signed, war crimes, and those responsible should be jailed not least for seeking to assassinate democratic elected heads of other states!
    “Interfere” suggests how you worry farmers sheep in top field, this is burning down farm with people inside.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    There is a clear (and honest) line the west should try to tread with information, internet information and propaganda targeted at Russian civilians and military.

    We shouldn't belittle or insult them. We should find ways to say Russia is a great country with a fine and honerable population whose subjugation by a corrupt elite and misguided dictator is an afront to the values of the modern day Russian population.
    Do all we can to increase the divide between the Putinists and the population, a population we respect a d have sympathy with for the intolerable and actions of an out of control government.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973
    Leon said:

    "Video of completely destroyed Russian column in Bucha":

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497917235540676612

    My word. There’s a few videos of these smashed Russian columns - I thought for a while they were just different angles of the same scene. But that one is new and definitely different.

    How do the Ukrainians get the firepower to do THAT? Must be a drone strike?
    Looks like it is on a residential street. More likely to be infantry with anti-tank weapons I would have thought, than a drone.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,042
    edited February 2022
    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Let's hope they act now, in fact.

    He's going to ramp up the fear, as our friend Mr Johnson from the other side was indicating .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Chameleon said:

    Putin is meeting defense minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov in the Kremlin.

    He says western sanctions are "illegitimate" and has ordered to place Russia's deterrence – i.e. nuclear – forces on "a special regime of duty," per @tass_agency

    Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

    One way or another, he will make sure that he won't lose this war. Lets hope the oligarchs strike, the war is not good for them either.

    Nuclear war it is, then

    I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    Hannan hot take, these are not far away brown people without dishwashers of whom we know little.


    Odious man. "They seem so like us"... Every time I see a victim of any war zone anywhere my first thought is there but for the grace of God.
    In fairness my wife thought and said the same. It’s not a lack of compassion for war victims anywhere. It’s just wars have been a developing world scenario for so long. War in Europe like this seemed unthinkable and therefore more shocking.
This discussion has been closed.