Time to bet that Le Pen won’t get on the ballot – politicalbetting.com

Following on from the previous post and the troubles that Le Pen appears to be having getting onto April’s French Presidential ballot I’ve been betting this morning that the final two will not be Macron + Le Pen.
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Surely a deposit system would make more sense. Say, 1m Euros and then you get back 100k for every 0.5% of the vote you get up to 5% when you get it all back.
But I absolutely support very strict limits on amounts that can be given. Since doners aren't supposed to directly gain from doing so the risks of giving them such influence outweighs the 'harm' of a party not being able to receive flipping great wodges of cash from a small group of people and organisations. Spend less and ask for volunteers.
Were Charles here he'd say something about people just wanting to give bsck etc, but tough, and they'd get over the disappointment.
Ideally you want it to be high enough so that only serious candidates run, but I'd also refund it progressively so as not to put people off just in case they don't make the threshold.
And the Tories will always insist that unions are treated like any other donor, and Labour will always insist that they aren't.
This on the other hand, as Malc would say is pure “mince”.
It’s actually a study looking for any benefits of doing it.
I’ll happily do it.
“None”
Invoice attached.
Firstly as header shows it’s crowded thistime on the right in first round, so whoever comes second might not have a high %. Secondly I know Socialist parties used to win elections, and are now 1% in polls. So where has it gone. Mostly I suspect to Macron and Melenchon.
So for Melrnchon not to sneak into surprise second it needs those lefty’s to stick with Macron in the first round. And maybe they won’t? Macron is sure to progress, but Melechron can be surprise second.
That’s what my nose suggests.
Farthings, ha'pennies, pennies, bits, groats, shillings, crowns, marks, pounds, and guineas. Huzzah!
https://twitter.com/peterliakhov/status/1495851796782362628
"In light of increasingly threatening behaviour from Russia, and in line with previous support, UK will shortly be providing further package of military support to Ukraine. This will include lethal aid in the form of defensive weapons.."
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1496478864708710401
It also very obviously shows that Putin feels he has to reinforce his position through some level of fear, both to the public at large and internally, at the moment. There must be internal issues, probably several.
Him - "Trade Union funding is different"
Me - "I will start the National Union of Boilermaker And Hedge Fund Owners"
Him - "That wouldn't be a proper Union"
Me -"Who decides what a proper Union is?"
Him "TUC"
Me - "Non-trivial number of unions are not affiliated to the TUC"
Him - "... government..."
Me - "Excellent. Then the government declares the RMT not to be a union..."
Him - "!!!????!!"
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1496434666127167491
The furthest I would go is allowing unions to organise opt in donations which individuals could choose to use (but that would count against the individuals maximum contribution). The same could apply for businesses to organise opt in donations from shareholders or employees.
We had blue and pink oncers during the war, to guard against Nazi counterfeiters.
"Well hello, Mr Macron. I've been expecting you".
She wasn’t at all aware of what Lucas was arguing. And not clued up on Russian oligarch money going in Tory Party policy.
“Like they who pay the piper play the tune, Lucas was saying Snookie.”
“Like the Pied Piper.”
“…yeah like that.”
“No. Didn’t see that?”
“It’s on her Twitter.”
“I’ll have a look later.”
So I havn’t much to report back on that.
*betting post! She did say though, Greens nearly won a rock solid Labour council seat, and are on course for winning everything, all council seats, the mayor and all the MPs at the election. Is it possible something bonkers that completely bucks the national trend could happen without us realising in a odd port urban enclave with two university populations?
"Mmm, maybe I misjudged Stromberg. Any man who drinks Dom Perignon '52 can't be all bad."
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1496464538404851719
Take Len Blavatnik, one of the UK's richest citizens. Has donated to both Labour and Tories, Obama, anti-Trump republicans, and Trump.
I'm sure he's a splendid guy and generous philanthropist, but what on earth is the purpose of such general gifting of money to politicians ?
Let them fund their university institutes or art galleries, but let's impose stricter limits on direct political donations.
Their money gives them quite enough influence without that.
(For the avoidance of doubt, all of the above is entirely tangential to the issue of sanctions on Putin.)
I'll have a wee dram of Talisker
Here you go (drip)
?
JRM could go for that one.
It's been perfectly legal to sell goods in imperial for years now, as long as you also give the metric equivalent equal billing*. So what is the point of this inquiry by the government?
*P.S. as an aside, I was in Borough Market the other day and noticed several items on a fruit stall being sold in imperial only. On the same stall, some other goods were sold in metric only.
I surmised two things:
1. That these laws, as they exist, are rarely enforced, at least in that particular market
2. The fruiterer will use the measurement that best benefits his sales – i.e. sounds like the customer is getting more for less
In the runoff Le Pen is also now doing about as well as Pecresse v Macron in the runoff, both do better than Zemmour who Macron defeats by a landslide but Macron still beats both
I would also say that a major cause of the revolution was the increase in education and standards of living caused by the explosive growth of the Russian economy (in patches) before WWI. When things are changing, it becomes possible to imagine things changing for the better...
Foreign types tend to give horse heights in cm. This is less bad than it sounds because 10 cm is 4 in is 1 hand, approx, so if you just divide by ten you are in the right ballpark
Of course, we never went all in on metric. We still use Babylonian measures for time. Decimal hours anyone?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dram_(unit)?wprov=sfla1
Suggests Putin has reached gangster/tyrant levels of paranoid omnipotence. The stronger you are, the more afraid you become. Someone will steal The Precious!!
Putin’s downfall might not be far away
🙏
But given that pretty much everything is metric anyway, going any further than that would be counterproductive.
Crazy.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10542729/Ben-Wallace-claims-Putin-gone-tonto-Ukraine-crisis.html
I posted a link to the Saddam scene the other day.
And end up with Melenchon or Macron as a choice.
So you agree with me then, Boris latest dog whistle wheeze at PMQs is a spectacular own goal, when he mentioned a Labour MP accepted £100’sK from a Chinese Spy the heckling of Starmer began. It pulled the rug from under Starmer’s line, and the Tory back benches rallied to Boris and heckled.
Boris should never have said that. The more I think about it that is probably the most stupid thing Boris has ever done. 😦
Makes him look an arse but doesn't really matter, I don't think being called tonto by a flesh lump in a waistcoat will be what tips Vlad into total war
A yard could have been 1,000mm
A foot, 300mm
A pound 500g
An inch 25mm
And so on?
If he really thinks that's an appropriate way of leadership-raising he's an idiot, which he hasn't shown up untll now.
Though I expect it would be used as an excuse to hide a 10% price hike in the conversion.
The whole point is that if the Mayors collectively don't think a candidate is suitable to be nominated then they can prevent that, regardless of public support.
If public support is sustained then, of course, the candidate would see supportive Mayors elected anyway, but having a nomination threshold is not unusual and serves a purpose separate to raw levels of popular support.
That's just me though - I'm not trying to say one is better than another.
As a kid, I found the thruppence was the most satisfying of coins.
People vote differently at different levels of government. I don't think people should have to think about the presidential election when they're electing a mayor.
His rival Fahrenheit insisted he was over 107.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/property/bristol-couple-kids-lived-apart-6603171
Help to buy was presented as the solution, but how can this be anything other than a damning indictment of housing policy?
- Development is bad
- Building things is bad
- Building houses is really really bad
- We need a rising population
Then people are surprised that there is a bit of a shortage of places for people to live....
If anyone wants to remind themselves of how bad dictatorships can get, I highly recommend a (re-)read of Republic of Fear by Kanan Makiya (originally written under the pseudonym Samir al-Khalil)
C’est la vie
If she got a 9% swing again in 2027 then Le Pen would be elected President of France
They won’t bring them back. It’s insanity. It’s just another plank in the culture war, another way to try to secure the votes of the reactionary elderly as they continue to refuse to admit what a fucking terrible impact Brexit is having.
The Boomers in my family are beginning to look haunted as they contemplate the rapidly increasing prices for everything, half-heartedly muttering that it’s all down to Covid. I don’t think they even persuade themselves anymore. They know it’s hugely exacerbated by leaving the single market, they know collectively we’ve dropped a massive bollock whose effects fate has decided to spice up with Covid and now the turmoil in the east, they just can’t bring themselves to say it out loud yet.
No coincidence it is the Mail reporting this