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The story that won’t go away for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120
    edited February 2022
    eek said:

    Northern Echo Poll of Polls

    Every red wall local 2019 Tory MP will lose their seat except in Berwick.

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19937746.electoral-calculus-predicts-labour-wins-north-east/
    A bit out of date as the EC poll of polls used by the Northern Echo has Labour 8% ahead whereas most recent polls have Labour 5% ahead at most.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    Hexham, Middlesborough South and Cleveland East would certainly stay Tory on the latest polls, maybe Bishop Auckland too
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    If knowledge were power, this place would run the country...
    Not sure it is always great for judgment though...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    kle4 said:

    Not sure it is always great for judgment though...
    There's a range...!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    kle4 said:

    Not sure it is always great for judgment though...
    If you're dissing Radiohead again, then goodbye and it was nice knowing you.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952
    Nigelb said:
    I read that as you suggesting what the Poles really require are think-tanks.

    They have their place. Something like “institute of Putin studies” perhaps. We have more than enough spare think-tanks we could happily export to them if needed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    There's a range...!
    Quite so

    Wrong, very wrong, dear gods what's the matter with you why would you even suggest that you lunatic?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    ydoethur said:

    If you're dissing Radiohead again, then goodbye and it was nice knowing you.
    I have never and will never diss Radiohead. I believe silence on the matter speaks for itself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    The leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics have asked Putin to recognise their independence because "Ukraine has chosen a military solution to the conflict".

    https://ria.ru/20220221/dnr-1774105558.html

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,635

    Yawn. Happened every day, until the Socialist Campaign Group objected to the blueness of the dildos as inappropriately partisan.
    Rainbow dildos are now available. I saw a movie with one in. NHS dildos. I’m sure the socialists would approve.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    The leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics have asked Putin to recognise their independence because "Ukraine has chosen a military solution to the conflict".

    https://ria.ru/20220221/dnr-1774105558.html

    I guess that is the solution here? Nothing changes on the ground, but Putin formally recognises those as 'sovereign' states whilst everyone else carries on seeing them as part of Ukraine, and no one tries to retake them militarily?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited February 2022

    The leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics have asked Putin to recognise their independence because "Ukraine has chosen a military solution to the conflict".

    https://ria.ru/20220221/dnr-1774105558.html

    The “Leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics”, being the Russian rebels inside Ukraine.

    All this false flagging gets tiring.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    kle4 said:

    I guess that is the solution here? Nothing changes on the ground, but Putin formally recognises those as 'sovereign' states whilst everyone else carries on seeing them as part of Ukraine, and no one tries to retake them militarily?
    Let's hope so. What is clear is Putin would have no compunction destroying a neighbouring state and killing a large part of its inhabitants. Catastrophe averted even if only for the interim.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    kle4 said:

    Quite so

    Wrong, very wrong, dear gods what's the matter with you why would you even suggest that you lunatic?
    I think maybe we extend that to a raised eyebrow and "Maybe...." at one end and shit-being-lost by the Flint-knapper-Formerly-Known-as-Byronic at the other...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Sandpit said:

    The “Leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics”, being the Russian rebels inside Ukraine.

    All this false flagging gets tiring.
    I'm amazed anyone still tries the 'People's Republic' line.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    kle4 said:

    I'm amazed anyone still tries the 'People's Republic' line.
    Especially since they've exiled all their own people, to keep them out of a war they have deliberately started themselves.
  • Mr. kle4, we came within a few thousands votes of trying a People's Republic in the UK in 2017...
  • Sandpit said:

    The “Leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics”, being the Russian rebels inside Ukraine.

    All this false flagging gets tiring.
    I think the only point of note is that clearly they don't feel Putin is entirely behind them.

    Putin fondly remembers the days of the USSR. Perhaps he is forgotten that even the puppets don't always tow the line.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    I think the only point of note is that clearly they don't feel Putin is entirely behind them.

    Putin fondly remembers the days of the USSR. Perhaps he is forgotten that even the puppets don't always tow the line.
    The point of note when I go to that page is the ad promoting Slovenian passports to Russians. A lack of confidence in Putin may be more widespread and the domestic reaction might be the only thing holding him back. Let's hope so.
  • Have just been given authorisation to conduct unrestricted submarine warfare.* Will be a busy few years to come then :)

    *not actual warfare or with actual submarines.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    Second order effects of the Ukraine situation, which might prove consequential.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/21/ukrainian-american-voters-eye-on-russia-00010148
    ...He and Marko both consider themselves Republicans, and they’re the kind of Ukrainian-Americans who now find themselves conflicted. Both told me they’re satisfied with Biden’s response to the crisis so far, and both admire Marcy Kaptur, the Democratic co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, whose district includes Parma.

    Marko told me he voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, but struggled with the decision because of Trump’s rhetoric; many of his Ukrainian-American acquaintances ultimately supported Trump over Biden. But he also recalls customers telling his father they would stop being Republican because of Trump. During the 2020 election, he says, one client, during what started as a friendly chat about politics, got agitated and called the then-president an idiot...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    kle4 said:

    I have never and will never diss Radiohead. I believe silence on the matter speaks for itself.
    The incident I was thinking of wasn't Krojanty - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge_at_Krojanty

    It was a smaller incident, IIRC, a platoon of German tanks had stopped for refuelling and rearming. A Polish mounted cavalry unit saw this, and covered the ground between them at a gallop, dismounted and took on the Germans before they could get their tanks up and running.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779

    Quite a lot of students really like online lectures. If the lecture is well done, and the students can watch when they want, and pause etc it can work well. Last thursday I gave three 1 hour (well 50 minutes - there is a 10 min change-over gap) to the same cohort. The last lecture was their seventh hour of the day. I think many would have rather had the option to watch when ready.

    However some stuff for me doesn't work online - tutorials and workshops work best wandering round the room and interacting with the students.

    And clearly practical classes have to be in person.

    So really the best thing is probably a mix or a blend.

    And lastly - in previous times last Friday would have been a write-off for my Uni - red warning so closed campus, but most teaching was able to switch to online.
    Properly used online lectures can be valuable, but in other situations they are not appropriate

    Some institutions are abusing them with the result there is a lower quality education overall

    Government speech’s don’t deal in shades of gray.
  • kle4 said:

    I'm amazed anyone still tries the 'People's Republic' line.
    Народна/народная can equally well mean "national". A народный банк is a national bank.
  • So much talk wasted on Radiohead when the correct answer is Stephen Wilson.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835

    So much talk wasted on Radiohead when the correct answer is Stephen Wilson.

    I was at school with a Stephen Wilson.

    I'm fairly sure he isn't the correct answer to anything.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    edited February 2022

    Quite a lot of students really like online lectures. If the lecture is well done, and the students can watch when they want, and pause etc it can work well. Last thursday I gave three 1 hour (well 50 minutes - there is a 10 min change-over gap) to the same cohort. The last lecture was their seventh hour of the day. I think many would have rather had the option to watch when ready.

    However some stuff for me doesn't work online - tutorials and workshops work best wandering round the room and interacting with the students.

    And clearly practical classes have to be in person.

    So really the best thing is probably a mix or a blend.

    And lastly - in previous times last Friday would have been a write-off for my Uni - red warning so closed campus, but most teaching was able to switch to online.
    I think it's a slippery slope to doing most things online, which I personally think would be a bad thing. Rubbing shoulders with people you wouldn't necessarily choose to be with is one of the key ingredients of civilisation.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779

    Claiming to be the originator of Hummus will kick off a fight in a large chunk of the world....
    It’ll chick peace away…
  • FF43 said:

    The Government decision to move from free to paid for Covid testing is illogical. Either it's worth doing, in which case they pay for it as they do for any other diagnostic testing on the NHS, or we no longer need to know who has Covid, in which case government advises against the test.

    It raises the suspicion that the real reason for making testing more costly/difficult is stop incidents being reported. so it can be covered up.

    That doesn't make any sense.

    Its not free as its not necessary anymore, but if anyone chooses to go to a pharmacy or elsewhere for the service they should have the right to pay, if that's their free choice.
  • Cookie said:

    I was at school with a Stephen Wilson.

    I'm fairly sure he isn't the correct answer to anything.
    The Steven Wilson I have in mind is the creative genius behind Porcupine Tree / no-man / Blackfield / Bass Communion / Storm Corrosion / Incredible Expanding Mindfuck and not dismissing the stuff released solo.

    If there is such a thing as a musical polymath, it is he...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779
    ClippP said:

    I agree with our Malcolm about the uselessness of DPD. I recently sent a small package to the HQ of an international bank. The building was one of the largest in the city. The message came back that they could not find the building, and so it had to be returned to me.
    I chatted to a beefeater once… dominos pizza delivery driver “couldn’t find the Tower of London”
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Cookie said:

    I was at school with a Stephen Wilson.

    I'm fairly sure he isn't the correct answer to anything.
    What was his name?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964

    They are probably looking for an HYUFD style analyst who can find and publicise numbers that fit the politics rather than someone to do anything complex.
    Go for it, young HY!!!!!! You are well qualified..... with lots of experience....
  • kle4 said:

    Quite so

    Wrong, very wrong, dear gods what's the matter with you why would you even suggest that you lunatic?
    And that's just [insert name here]
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    It’ll chick peace away…
    No, it’s all a falafel about nothing
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Putin:
    Russia did all it could to resolve Ukraine crisis in a peaceful manner.
    US can rip up security commitments it gives us.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Pulpstar said:

    Putin:
    Russia did all it could to resolve Ukraine crisis in a peaceful manner.
    US can rip up security commitments it gives us.

    "did"

    Doesn't sound good
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835

    The Steven Wilson I have in mind is the creative genius behind Porcupine Tree / no-man / Blackfield / Bass Communion / Storm Corrosion / Incredible Expanding Mindfuck and not dismissing the stuff released solo.

    If there is such a thing as a musical polymath, it is he...
    I have just wikipedia'd him. I must confess the only one of those I am even vaguely aware of is No-Man. I shall give him a listen this evening.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Leon said:

    "did"

    Doesn't sound good
    Source is the Russia Today ticker. Which is the best source for the Russian 'perspective'
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Sir John Bell - Regis Professor of Medicine, Oxford on R4 - disease is now relatively mild (among the vaccinated) and is a serious illness very largely only among the un-vaccinated. Also can rely on public to be sensible. Doesn’t see much point of continuing with legal restrictions. Testing cannot rely on commercial only testing - need to scale back to where testing is required and ONS surveillance needs to continue. Masks reduce transmission a bit, but don’t stop it - mandating it not necessary, rely on individual choice.

    Seems eminently sensible from Sir John, unlike several other submissions I have heard today.

    And (yes, I know, I know) but WTF is it with BBC and voxpops?

    Do they not even test Joe Public's contributions for basic sanity before they broadcast them?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    ClippP said:

    Go for it, young HY!!!!!! You are well qualified..... with lots of experience....
    iSage do that for free - all you need to do is to spoof them that the government is doing f, they will provided data proving that f-1 is the correct answer. Then do f-1 as planned.
  • Leon said:

    "did"

    Doesn't sound good
    Its not sounded good for a while. Like the Grand old Duke of York he's marched his troops to the top of the hill, but I don't think he can march them back down again, so it will have to be a conflict.

    The mad thing is Russia could never defeat the West if we allied against him and were willing to back it up with force to protect Ukraine. Russia's army is decrepit, weak, ill-mannered and ill-equipped. NATO could easily stop him into the ground if it came to a conventional war.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited February 2022

    That doesn't make any sense.

    Its not free as its not necessary anymore, but if anyone chooses to go to a pharmacy or elsewhere for the service they should have the right to pay, if that's their free choice.
    Indeed. One might as well argue that prescriptions are only chargeable because the government wants to 'cover up' people's illnesses. What an absolutely bonkers contention. I have seen so many today.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,980
    Good news. The SNP are "calming down any excessive hysteria" in Ukraine, after SNP MPs make crucial visit to Kiev.

    That's OK, then. Vlad will have taken note. Them SNPers not to be taken lightly.

    This is not a spoof. See:

    https://twitter.com/Markgsparrow/status/1495410986253262853

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120

    Its not sounded good for a while. Like the Grand old Duke of York he's marched his troops to the top of the hill, but I don't think he can march them back down again, so it will have to be a conflict.

    The mad thing is Russia could never defeat the West if we allied against him and were willing to back it up with force to protect Ukraine. Russia's army is decrepit, weak, ill-mannered and ill-equipped. NATO could easily stop him into the ground if it came to a conventional war.
    Only if all NATO forces combined together.

    The Russian army is still the 3rd most powerful in the world after the US and China's
  • Cookie said:

    I have just wikipedia'd him. I must confess the only one of those I am even vaguely aware of is No-Man. I shall give him a listen this evening.
    Starter for 10 albums:
    Porcupine Tree: Fear of a Blank Planet
    Steven Wilson: Hand. Cannot. Erase.
    no-man: Flowemouth

    Its funny. He can have sold out multi-night shows at the Albert Hall and the reaction of most people is "who?" Under the radar doesn't quite cover it. And its just how much stuff he puts out, and its all good, much is great, some is epic.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    edited February 2022

    Its not sounded good for a while. Like the Grand old Duke of York he's marched his troops to the top of the hill, but I don't think he can march them back down again, so it will have to be a conflict.

    The mad thing is Russia could never defeat the West if we allied against him and were willing to back it up with force to protect Ukraine. Russia's army is decrepit, weak, ill-mannered and ill-equipped. NATO could easily stop him into the ground if it came to a conventional war.
    There would be a lot of body bags along the way, though. We, the UK that is, certainly doesn't have the appetite for that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    What building are Vlad and his lackeys in ?

    The floor is gorgeous.
  • HYUFD said:

    Only if all NATO forces combined together.

    The Russian army is still the 3rd most powerful in the world after the US and China's
    Why would all of NATO combined be necessary when the US alone is more powerful than Russia?

    And Russia's "power" is vastly overrated. Most of the 150k "troops" are poorly disciplined conscripts.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247

    Seems eminently sensible from Sir John, unlike several other submissions I have heard today.

    And (yes, I know, I know) but WTF is it with BBC and voxpops?

    Do they not even test Joe Public's contributions for basic sanity before they broadcast them?

    Modern style news. You ask a random person and they something controversial. This makes it news.

    That fact that the "voxpop" resembles the bottom right hand example in the following, is irrelevant...

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120
    edited February 2022

    Why would all of NATO combined be necessary when the US alone is more powerful than Russia?

    And Russia's "power" is vastly overrated. Most of the 150k "troops" are poorly disciplined conscripts.
    If Trump got back in in 2024 he would abandon NATO as he is pals with Putin and just concentrate on containing China.

    Europe would be left to defend itself. Russia could beat each individual European army on its own, it could not beat them if the French, German, Italian, Polish, UK militaries combined however. So increasing defence spending by all NATO members in Europe is vital.

    Russia actually has 1,014,000 professional troops and 2 million reserves
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces
  • I chatted to a beefeater once… dominos pizza delivery driver “couldn’t find the Tower of London”
    I once got into a cab in NYC. The driver had apparently recently arrived from Haiti. "West 54th Street please'" said I. "Where's that?" came the reply.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    NEW THREAD
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump got back in in 2024 he would abandon NATO as he is pals with Putin and just concentrate on containing China.

    Europe would be left to defend itself. Russia could beat each individual European army on its own, it could not beat them if the French, German, Polish, UK militaries combined however. So increasing defence spending by all NATO members in Europe is vital.

    Russia actually has 1,014,000 professional troops and 2 million reserves
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces
    That's not 1 million professional troops - that's 1 million active. In other words professionals + the current "classes" of conscripts.
  • Its not sounded good for a while. Like the Grand old Duke of York he's marched his troops to the top of the hill, but I don't think he can march them back down again, so it will have to be a conflict.

    The mad thing is Russia could never defeat the West if we allied against him and were willing to back it up with force to protect Ukraine. Russia's army is decrepit, weak, ill-mannered and ill-equipped. NATO could easily stop him into the ground if it came to a conventional war.
    Not to mention the West’s combined forces armchair general division. Probably outnumbers Russian groundforces on numbers AND bellicosity.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump got back in in 2024 he would abandon NATO as he is pals with Putin and just concentrate on containing China.

    Europe would be left to defend itself. Russia could beat each individual European army on its own, it could not beat them if the French, German, Italian, Polish, UK militaries combined however. So increasing defence spending by all NATO members in Europe is vital.

    Russia actually has 1,014,000 professional troops and 2 million reserves
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces
    The French and Germans, and even the Spaniards, Italians and Greeks, have all actually got quite large militaries, at least in terms of numbers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120

    The French and Germans, and even the Spaniards, Italians and Greeks, have all actually got quite large militaries, at least in terms of numbers.
    None individually bigger than the Russians, so Russia could defeat them all individually
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    None individually bigger than the Russians, so Russia could defeat them all individually
    Obviously not. The French and Americans are also increasing their military presence in the areas of the Mediterranean towards the Black Sea at the moment, however, which would still mean the Russians having to confront major NATO forces in central Europe for the foreseeable future.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    HYUFD said:

    None individually bigger than the Russians, so Russia could defeat them all individually
    Fucked against NATO though. Which is why it exists.....
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,655
    edited February 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Source is the Russia Today ticker. Which is the best source for the Russian 'perspective'
    Somewhat related - but it seems alt-right/qanon/definitely-not-russian-trolls-world is ablaze with tomorrows date marking 'the return of Pluto' and that being the date everything kicks off. Something to do with Pluto doing the same thing at the 'founding of the United States' in 1776 (ymmv). And something else to do with the fall of the Roman Empire. I gave up trying to wrap my head around it.

    It's very strange, even by that worlds standards. But they are certainly quite excited about it and convinced it relates to Ukraine and all-round family values tough guy Putin's timing of events.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    "Must be able to drink and code at the same time."
    Own a suitcase
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    "Must be able to drink and code at the same time."
    Own a suitcase
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Good news. The SNP are "calming down any excessive hysteria" in Ukraine, after SNP MPs make crucial visit to Kiev.

    That's OK, then. Vlad will have taken note. Them SNPers not to be taken lightly.

    This is not a spoof. See:

    https://twitter.com/Markgsparrow/status/1495410986253262853

    He is a scary looking Dude, if only he was as interested in Stirling and Scottish Independence.
This discussion has been closed.