The story that won’t go away for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

U.S. intelligence learned last week that the Kremlin had given the order for Russian military units to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine, information that prompted President Biden to announce that President Vladimir V. Putin had made the decision to attack, U.S. officials said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/20/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden#us-intelligence-russia-military

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: Russia is deploying more armored equipment and troops near Belgorod, Soloti, Valuyki as close as 10 miles from the Ukrainian border.

Most of the combat units at Soloti are now departing, per satellite images, heading south in the direction of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1495532423395913733

Joyce Karam@Joyce_Karam·58mIn last 3 hours:

- Biden held 4 hr NSC mtg
- Biden rescheduled then canceled trip to Delaware tonight
- Macron 📞 Biden: 15 min
- US embassy in Russia warning of attacks in Moscow & St Petersburg
- Situation continues to be tense in/around Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam

MoonRabbit said:

rottenborough said:

First. Like Sophie Raworth.

She's doing great in Marr's slot.

I second that, she is really tough and fearless, and shows no bias whichever politician she is interrogating. She has given both Boris and Starmer a hard time in last few weeks. And that’s good 👍🏻

It shows that when chair blockers like Marr and Jon Snow are out the way, others can step in and reveal how good they can be.

Hashtag exciting 🙂

Definitely. I have been impressed. Perhaps she can take us back a bit to the world of Brian Walden and so on? Proper interviews.

Though the state of BBC management at the moment they will probably announce that Amol Rajan has been awarded the Sunday Show tomorrow.

Weather is getting utterly vile outside again and house is getting quite chilly despite the heating being on, just had to turn it up more. Seems like Storm Franklin could be worse than Eunice around here at least.

Hope Spring arrives soon. This week's weather has wrecked the plans I'd made for half-term.

On Topic. By Moon Rabbits countdown, only two days to go now before Boris leadership comes to an end. 🙂.

I’m sticking to that. My analysis agrees with Mike’s header, it’s not going away. I disagree with header, that an apology from Boris saves him, in fact he’s remained in post a few weeks longer on the basis he’s avoided making such an apology. Such an apology is an admission of guilt - and that moment, either through apology or some other means, finishes him. The penny dropped weeks ago, even in number ten, he can’t survive this. It’s not a simple law that has been broken - through the messaging of the law, that law was Boris own policy what we all needed to do, the whole sense of British fair play is built into it, the prime ministers own leadership, to lead by example built into it. He broke that law. He told whoppers to Parliament and media to avoid being found out. There’s no coming back from that.

It’s just a question of when. And my countdown till Tuesday is based on two things I have learned from all this and hold to be true. Firstly, there is no clever manoeuvring how the letters go in, a vonc can happen any second based on MPs deciding in their own mind at their own speed they want a change. Secondly, Boris has had a degree of control over delay and filibuster up till now. Last Friday he lost control. What he has stated to police can become public knowledge any moment now.

It’s also noticeable he has very little support inside his own tent now, just the same old loyalists in the media defending him, and contorting themselves to manage that like Cleverly did today

*sort of on topic, there is something else not going away. But as Boris is gone soon, this is more a problem for the Conservative Party and the leadership who inherit Boris To Do list.

a bit of Brexit on front tomorrows papers again. 🤔

Telegraph covering IDS saying “time running out to benefit from Brexit” I didn’t realise there was a ticking clock on being able to benefit, how is that explained?

“Brexit let down - the promised fruits are hard to find” top of the FT.

I had a chat with my Dad on Face Time today. He said although Blair won majorities, there was still a customary lot of table banging mid term asking where the deliver on the promises were. It got me thinking, the more covid becomes thing of the past in peoples minds the more this electoral cycle slips into demanding delivery on promises, partly hidden from view by Ukraine Crisis. And also it’s different this time because this is the Brexit delivery parliament, normal elections promises woven in with finally delivering Brexit benefits.

If we get back to a more standard news narrative, can we expect to be hearing a lot more about delivery of Brexit benefits?

Non delivery, yes.

MoonRabbit said:

On Topic. By Moon Rabbits countdown, only two days to go now before Boris leadership comes to an end. 🙂.

I’m sticking to that. My analysis agrees with Mike’s header, it’s not going away. I disagree with header, that an apology from Boris saves him, in fact he’s remained in post a few weeks longer on the basis he’s avoided making such an apology. Such an apology is an admission of guilt - and that moment, either through apology or some other means, finishes him. The penny dropped weeks ago, even in number ten, he can’t survive this. It’s not a simple law that has been broken - through the messaging of the law, that law was Boris own policy what we all needed to do, the whole sense of British fair play is built into it, the prime ministers own leadership, to lead by example built into it. He broke that law. He told whoppers to Parliament and media to avoid being found out. There’s no coming back from that.

It’s just a question of when. And my countdown till Tuesday is based on two things I have learned from all this and hold to be true. Firstly, there is no clever manoeuvring how the letters go in, a vonc can happen any second based on MPs deciding in their own mind at their own speed they want a change. Secondly, Boris has had a degree of control over delay and filibuster up till now. Last Friday he lost control. What he has stated to police can become public knowledge any moment now.

It’s also noticeable he has very little support inside his own tent now, just the same old loyalists in the media defending him, and contorting themselves to manage that like Cleverly did today

Given Boris has halved the Labour poll lead he is secure for now.

Only if he is fined, the Labour lead expands to double digits again or the Tories see massive losses in the local elections will he be under threat again

Nigelb said:

(FPT) Private prosecutions are increasingly common, thanks to constraints on CPS funding. The Post Office is far from the only organisation bringing private prosecutions (see eg local authorities, or the RSPCA…).

Parliament’s Justice Committee concluded that the oversight of the process is inadequate:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5801/cmselect/cmjust/497/49703.htm

The courts are effectively the regulators of private prosecutions, but for obvious reasons that regulation is not systematic.
The CPS has powers to intervene in private prosecutions in particular circumstances, but has no overall regulatory role at all….

There are good arguments in favour of having a system of private prosecutions, but it does seem extraordinary that we recognised as far back as the mid 80s that there were dangerous conflicts of interest in having those who investigated a crime also bring prosecutions. As a result the CPS was set up to take over that role from the police.

And yet in the intervening three and a half decades we’ve never done anything about setting up a system to regulate decisions to prosecute still taken by those who do the investigation - ie for pretty well all private prosecutions.

This may well be something positive that comes out of the Post Office scandal. Private Prosecutions may come to be subject to outside review and scrutiny.

Anyone with any common sense would have quickly figured that the PO was going over the top and that its campaign against the postmasters was based on flawed assumptions and faulty evidence.

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

On Topic. By Moon Rabbits countdown, only two days to go now before Boris leadership comes to an end. 🙂.

I’m sticking to that. My analysis agrees with Mike’s header, it’s not going away. I disagree with header, that an apology from Boris saves him, in fact he’s remained in post a few weeks longer on the basis he’s avoided making such an apology. Such an apology is an admission of guilt - and that moment, either through apology or some other means, finishes him. The penny dropped weeks ago, even in number ten, he can’t survive this. It’s not a simple law that has been broken - through the messaging of the law, that law was Boris own policy what we all needed to do, the whole sense of British fair play is built into it, the prime ministers own leadership, to lead by example built into it. He broke that law. He told whoppers to Parliament and media to avoid being found out. There’s no coming back from that.

It’s just a question of when. And my countdown till Tuesday is based on two things I have learned from all this and hold to be true. Firstly, there is no clever manoeuvring how the letters go in, a vonc can happen any second based on MPs deciding in their own mind at their own speed they want a change. Secondly, Boris has had a degree of control over delay and filibuster up till now. Last Friday he lost control. What he has stated to police can become public knowledge any moment now.

It’s also noticeable he has very little support inside his own tent now, just the same old loyalists in the media defending him, and contorting themselves to manage that like Cleverly did today

Given Boris has halved the Labour poll lead he is secure for now.

Only if he is fined, the Labour lead expands to double digits again or the Tories see massive losses in the local elections will he be under threat again

One of our posts is a keeper. I’m saying out by this Tuesday 🙋‍♀️

Not if Russia invades.....

Peter_the_Punter said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT) Private prosecutions are increasingly common, thanks to constraints on CPS funding. The Post Office is far from the only organisation bringing private prosecutions (see eg local authorities, or the RSPCA…).

Parliament’s Justice Committee concluded that the oversight of the process is inadequate:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5801/cmselect/cmjust/497/49703.htm

The courts are effectively the regulators of private prosecutions, but for obvious reasons that regulation is not systematic.
The CPS has powers to intervene in private prosecutions in particular circumstances, but has no overall regulatory role at all….

There are good arguments in favour of having a system of private prosecutions, but it does seem extraordinary that we recognised as far back as the mid 80s that there were dangerous conflicts of interest in having those who investigated a crime also bring prosecutions. As a result the CPS was set up to take over that role from the police.

And yet in the intervening three and a half decades we’ve never done anything about setting up a system to regulate decisions to prosecute still taken by those who do the investigation - ie for pretty well all private prosecutions.

This may well be something positive that comes out of the Post Office scandal. Private Prosecutions may come to be subject to outside review and scrutiny.

Anyone with any common sense would have quickly figured that the PO was going over the top and that its campaign against the postmasters was based on flawed assumptions and faulty evidence.

For some reason about 99% of the media wasn't interested in investigating these cases at the time. There were a few exceptions.

Mark MacKinnon

@markmackinnon
·
2h
Heartbreaking. Leaving a restaurant in Kyiv tonight, and the waitress grabs my arm. “Are you leaving Ukraine? My husband thinks we should leave. But we have two cats and we can’t leave them.” I wouldn’t call it panic, but it feels like previously chill Kyiv is now very nervous…

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll

rottenborough said:

Pretty sure the markets will open significantly lower tomorrow first thing.

And with that - I head to bed. Night all.

I assumed the futures would be notably down, but surprisingly, they’re not.

IG ftse trading at ~-0.4%

BartholomewRoberts said:

ping said:

rottenborough said:

Pretty sure the markets will open significantly lower tomorrow first thing.

And with that - I head to bed. Night all.

I assumed the futures would be notably down, but surprisingly, they’re not.

IG ftse trading at ~-0.4%

Regrettably war in one thing that doesn't necessarily spook the markets. Conflict drives up the cost of oil etc which is good for businesses involved in trading that.

But there are lots of consumers of oil, who lose out.

And don't forget that companies like Shell have lots of Russian exposure (Sakhalin-II) which would be negatively impact by sanctions.

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

On Topic. By Moon Rabbits countdown, only two days to go now before Boris leadership comes to an end. 🙂.

I’m sticking to that. My analysis agrees with Mike’s header, it’s not going away. I disagree with header, that an apology from Boris saves him, in fact he’s remained in post a few weeks longer on the basis he’s avoided making such an apology. Such an apology is an admission of guilt - and that moment, either through apology or some other means, finishes him. The penny dropped weeks ago, even in number ten, he can’t survive this. It’s not a simple law that has been broken - through the messaging of the law, that law was Boris own policy what we all needed to do, the whole sense of British fair play is built into it, the prime ministers own leadership, to lead by example built into it. He broke that law. He told whoppers to Parliament and media to avoid being found out. There’s no coming back from that.

It’s just a question of when. And my countdown till Tuesday is based on two things I have learned from all this and hold to be true. Firstly, there is no clever manoeuvring how the letters go in, a vonc can happen any second based on MPs deciding in their own mind at their own speed they want a change. Secondly, Boris has had a degree of control over delay and filibuster up till now. Last Friday he lost control. What he has stated to police can become public knowledge any moment now.

It’s also noticeable he has very little support inside his own tent now, just the same old loyalists in the media defending him, and contorting themselves to manage that like Cleverly did today

Given Boris has halved the Labour poll lead he is secure for now.

Only if he is fined, the Labour lead expands to double digits again or the Tories see massive losses in the local elections will he be under threat again

Classic Overton window here. "He halved the lead they didn't even have until recently". Genius. Three months ago Labour would have bitten your hand off for a 5 point lead, but now it's Wunderboris.

And eight years ago if someone had said the Tories would still be in power in 2022 and the Labour Party would only have a 5 point lead in the midterm during a scandal then the Tories would have bitten both your hands off for that.

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

rcs1000 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

ping said:

rottenborough said:

Pretty sure the markets will open significantly lower tomorrow first thing.

And with that - I head to bed. Night all.

I assumed the futures would be notably down, but surprisingly, they’re not.

IG ftse trading at ~-0.4%

Regrettably war in one thing that doesn't necessarily spook the markets. Conflict drives up the cost of oil etc which is good for businesses involved in trading that.

But there are lots of consumers of oil, who lose out.

And don't forget that companies like Shell have lots of Russian exposure (Sakhalin-II) which would be negatively impact by sanctions.

Oh absolutely agreed but the point is there's swings and roundabouts.

One person's horrific conflict is someone else's business opportunity.

It's a fair point.

However, I would suggest that the major losers (economically) will be the EU, which - like it or not - is going to end up being tougher on gas exports from Russia.

And the UK.

Because we are the most dependent country in the world on spot LNG imports. If the Europeans start bidding on a limited number of cargoes, the it just means we're both going to be paying a lot more. (I put a great deal of blame on UK generators, who looked to save a few bucks by not entering into long term supply contracts.)

Always trying to see the silver lining - could a large conflict in Ukraine followed by draconian economic sanctions against Russia be the impetus needed to get the West shifting seriously into renewables?

rottenborough said:

MarqueeMark said:

rottenborough said:

U.S. intelligence learned last week that the Kremlin had given the order for Russian military units to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine, information that prompted President Biden to announce that President Vladimir V. Putin had made the decision to attack, U.S. officials said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/20/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden#us-intelligence-russia-military

Must be serious paranoia in the Kremlin that the US has broken its codes....

Or perhaps the massive troop and tank movements on the roads gave the game away?

Reading between the lines, what Biden said implies that US SigInt is reading Russian military communications.

Latest jab figures

first 91.4%
second 85.0%
booster 66.1%

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

rottenborough said:

Mark MacKinnon

@markmackinnon
·
2h
Heartbreaking. Leaving a restaurant in Kyiv tonight, and the waitress grabs my arm. “Are you leaving Ukraine? My husband thinks we should leave. But we have two cats and we can’t leave them.” I wouldn’t call it panic, but it feels like previously chill Kyiv is now very nervous…

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll

When did Kiev change to Kyiv ?

Taz said:

rottenborough said:

Mark MacKinnon

@markmackinnon
·
2h
Heartbreaking. Leaving a restaurant in Kyiv tonight, and the waitress grabs my arm. “Are you leaving Ukraine? My husband thinks we should leave. But we have two cats and we can’t leave them.” I wouldn’t call it panic, but it feels like previously chill Kyiv is now very nervous…

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll

When did Kiev change to Kyiv ?

Kiev is the Russian spelling, Kyiv is the Ukrainian.

rcs1000 said:

Taz said:

rottenborough said:

Mark MacKinnon

@markmackinnon
·
2h
Heartbreaking. Leaving a restaurant in Kyiv tonight, and the waitress grabs my arm. “Are you leaving Ukraine? My husband thinks we should leave. But we have two cats and we can’t leave them.” I wouldn’t call it panic, but it feels like previously chill Kyiv is now very nervous…

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll

When did Kiev change to Kyiv ?

Kiev is the Russian spelling, Kyiv is the Ukrainian.

Ah, right. Thanks.

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

On Topic. By Moon Rabbits countdown, only two days to go now before Boris leadership comes to an end. 🙂.

I’m sticking to that. My analysis agrees with Mike’s header, it’s not going away. I disagree with header, that an apology from Boris saves him, in fact he’s remained in post a few weeks longer on the basis he’s avoided making such an apology. Such an apology is an admission of guilt - and that moment, either through apology or some other means, finishes him. The penny dropped weeks ago, even in number ten, he can’t survive this. It’s not a simple law that has been broken - through the messaging of the law, that law was Boris own policy what we all needed to do, the whole sense of British fair play is built into it, the prime ministers own leadership, to lead by example built into it. He broke that law. He told whoppers to Parliament and media to avoid being found out. There’s no coming back from that.

It’s just a question of when. And my countdown till Tuesday is based on two things I have learned from all this and hold to be true. Firstly, there is no clever manoeuvring how the letters go in, a vonc can happen any second based on MPs deciding in their own mind at their own speed they want a change. Secondly, Boris has had a degree of control over delay and filibuster up till now. Last Friday he lost control. What he has stated to police can become public knowledge any moment now.

It’s also noticeable he has very little support inside his own tent now, just the same old loyalists in the media defending him, and contorting themselves to manage that like Cleverly did today

Given Boris has halved the Labour poll lead he is secure for now.

Only if he is fined, the Labour lead expands to double digits again or the Tories see massive losses in the local elections will he be under threat again

Boris halved a,labour,lead his actions caused in the first place.

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

Not entirely sure its BREXIT (although the late Paddy Ashdown argued this was likely to happen) Its pretty high risk stuff for France but its certainly been a good crisis for Macron so far.... if UK/French diplomacy was a zero-sum game ...it'd be London nil: Paris 2.

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

Or the departure of Merkel....

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

Or the departure of Merkel....

Germany is hobbled by history from fulfilling the role, Britain has marginalised itself and will likely soon be struggling to remain whole, and Italy and Spain are, well, Italy and Spain.

The tabloid knee jerk antipathy to France that fed directly into Brexit has delivered France a huge opportunity.

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

PMSL.

Britain has been Europe's leading pro-Ukraine principle power since this began.

The reason Macron is the one doing these phone calls is because to his eternal shame, he's not been supporting Ukraine in the same way.

Ask any concerned democratic nation in Eastern Europe who the principle power has been in this crisis and they won't say France or Germany.

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

Or the departure of Merkel....

Germany is hobbled by history from fulfilling the role, Britain has marginalised itself and will likely soon be struggling to remain whole, and Italy and Spain are, well, Italy and Spain.

The tabloid knee jerk antipathy to France that fed directly into Brexit has delivered France a huge opportunity.

Actually in this sort of crisis an inconsequential, neutral nation tends to play the role of the 'honest broker' between the two sides.

Its France's shame that they're reduced to that role, not an opportunity to them. Thank goodness we've not been neutral in this crisis.

Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.

IanB2 said:

Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.

Yeah, sure, whatever

BartholomewRoberts said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

PMSL.

Britain has been Europe's leading pro-Ukraine principle power since this began.

The reason Macron is the one doing these phone calls is because to his eternal shame, he's not been supporting Ukraine in the same way.

Ask any concerned democratic nation in Eastern Europe who the principle power has been in this crisis and they won't say France or Germany.

and after Ben Wallace's "Munich appeasement" comment I'm not sure they'll be cheering the UK either

IanB2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

*sort of on topic, there is something else not going away. But as Boris is gone soon, this is more a problem for the Conservative Party and the leadership who inherit Boris To Do list.

a bit of Brexit on front tomorrows papers again. 🤔

Telegraph covering IDS saying “time running out to benefit from Brexit” I didn’t realise there was a ticking clock on being able to benefit, how is that explained?

“Brexit let down - the promised fruits are hard to find” top of the FT.

I had a chat with my Dad on Face Time today. He said although Blair won majorities, there was still a customary lot of table banging mid term asking where the deliver on the promises were. It got me thinking, the more covid becomes thing of the past in peoples minds the more this electoral cycle slips into demanding delivery on promises, partly hidden from view by Ukraine Crisis. And also it’s different this time because this is the Brexit delivery parliament, normal elections promises woven in with finally delivering Brexit benefits.

If we get back to a more standard news narrative, can we expect to be hearing a lot more about delivery of Brexit benefits?

Here’s Harris making the point that (as with war), after a crisis people start to thinking ‘what was it for?’:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/20/tories-death-misery-spending-cuts-covid-labour

… after two years of sacrifice, bereavement and hurt, there is no sign of any political payback for what people have suffered. Through 2020 and 2021, the government endlessly employed a slogan that had been in sporadic circulation for at least 15 years, and was soon adopted by Joe Biden: “Build back better”. Now, at the very point you might have thought those three words would be more ubiquitous than ever, they are nowhere to be seen.

[Meanwhile] Starmer talks about what we have all been through, but there is still no real sense of a centre-left party confidently speaking to a country reeling from the loss of 180,000 people, and the experience of every aspect of its collective life being upended.

Well of course. There's nothing waiting at the end of this but ever higher taxes on working people to facilitate the care and enrichment of the elderly. That's all the Tories are for, and Labour doesn't know how to propose any alternative without losing the next election.

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.

It's about lying to Parliament....there was no coming back from that.

There ought to be no coming back from that, but there will be. Johnson will simply say that he was mistaken, didn't realise how innocent, morale-boosting-intended, support for staff would or could be interpreted by others. And that, as Jack said, will be that. For all but 53 Tory MP's.

Not just that.

One of Johnson's first acts was to clear out anyone who questioned him.

Even if it was necessary, the side effect is that there's nobody in Cabinet, and hardly anyone in the Parliamentary party, with the backbone to tell Boris he's wrong.

If you select a bunch of cheerleaders, you can't complain that they don't play football.

Stuartinromford said:

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.

It's about lying to Parliament....there was no coming back from that.

There ought to be no coming back from that, but there will be. Johnson will simply say that he was mistaken, didn't realise how innocent, morale-boosting-intended, support for staff would or could be interpreted by others. And that, as Jack said, will be that. For all but 53 Tory MP's.

Not just that.

One of Johnson's first acts was to clear out anyone who questioned him.

Even if it was necessary, the side effect is that there's nobody in Cabinet, and hardly anyone in the Parliamentary party, with the backbone to tell Boris he's wrong.

If you select a bunch of cheerleaders, you can't complain that they don't play football.

No. One of Johnson's first acts was to clear out people who refused to get on board with the government's agenda. Same as every other new PM in the history of the role has done. That's the very nature of Cabinet - if you can't get on board with Cabinet Responsibility then you can't be in the Cabinet.

That doesn't make every Cabinet minister a cheerleader, it just means they were [initially at least] on board with the government's agenda, as you'd expect. As other PMs throughout time have found, there's no reason an initial alignment needs to last indefinitely.

BartholomewRoberts said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.

Just two? If he's confirmed as breaking the law then the entire Cabinet should, one by one, tell him its time to go. No ifs, no buts.

Having said that, though I no longer support him, credit where its due: he's doing a good job with Ukraine, and Covid in lifting all remaining restrictions.

But it doesn't matter how good a PM is. Introducing laws you don't follow yourself is gross misconduct.

There is a fundamental difference between you and a cabinet minister. You have standards.

The sad truth is that today's Conservative Party is amoral, incompetent and corrupt. They do - and then deny - literally anything. Which is why HY only talks about polling and not the issue. When standards do not matter they can be ignored.

The arrogance is thinking the general public have the same lack of morality, standards, decency. If Covid has taught us anything it is that most people give a shit about each other...

Are these storms actually going to end ?
Franklin certainly seems the wettest of the lot !

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.

Very, very heavy rain last night. Just about as heavy as I've experienced anywhere. Didn't last very long, but long enough to damage the Cole dwelling. Or at least find the gaps in it's defences!
Fortunately, though, not in the main structure.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Stuartinromford said:

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.

It's about lying to Parliament....there was no coming back from that.

There ought to be no coming back from that, but there will be. Johnson will simply say that he was mistaken, didn't realise how innocent, morale-boosting-intended, support for staff would or could be interpreted by others. And that, as Jack said, will be that. For all but 53 Tory MP's.

Not just that.

One of Johnson's first acts was to clear out anyone who questioned him.

Even if it was necessary, the side effect is that there's nobody in Cabinet, and hardly anyone in the Parliamentary party, with the backbone to tell Boris he's wrong.

If you select a bunch of cheerleaders, you can't complain that they don't play football.

No. One of Johnson's first acts was to clear out people who refused to get on board with the government's agenda. Same as every other new PM in the history of the role has done. That's the very nature of Cabinet - if you can't get on board with Cabinet Responsibility then you can't be in the Cabinet.

That doesn't make every Cabinet minister a cheerleader, it just means they were [initially at least] on board with the government's agenda, as you'd expect. As other PMs throughout time have found, there's no reason an initial alignment needs to last indefinitely.

Might have guessed that would trigger you.

Even if it were necessary it has the side effect of reducing the ability of the Cabinet to stand up to the PM when it has to be done. And sometimes, it really has to be done.

Consider also the pattern of sackings at Boris's reshuffles or the cringe of that post election Cabinet; "How many new hospitals?" "Forty, Prime Minister".

Definitely not cheerleaders.

Stuartinromford said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Stuartinromford said:

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Mail: At least two cabinet ministers will withdraw support for the Prime Minister if he is handed a fixed penalty notice in relation to Covid rule breaches, it has been reported.

It's about lying to Parliament....there was no coming back from that.

There ought to be no coming back from that, but there will be. Johnson will simply say that he was mistaken, didn't realise how innocent, morale-boosting-intended, support for staff would or could be interpreted by others. And that, as Jack said, will be that. For all but 53 Tory MP's.

Not just that.

One of Johnson's first acts was to clear out anyone who questioned him.

Even if it was necessary, the side effect is that there's nobody in Cabinet, and hardly anyone in the Parliamentary party, with the backbone to tell Boris he's wrong.

If you select a bunch of cheerleaders, you can't complain that they don't play football.

No. One of Johnson's first acts was to clear out people who refused to get on board with the government's agenda. Same as every other new PM in the history of the role has done. That's the very nature of Cabinet - if you can't get on board with Cabinet Responsibility then you can't be in the Cabinet.

That doesn't make every Cabinet minister a cheerleader, it just means they were [initially at least] on board with the government's agenda, as you'd expect. As other PMs throughout time have found, there's no reason an initial alignment needs to last indefinitely.

Might have guessed that would trigger you.

Even if it were necessary it has the side effect of reducing the ability of the Cabinet to stand up to the PM when it has to be done. And sometimes, it really has to be done.

Consider also the pattern of sackings at Boris's reshuffles or the cringe of that post election Cabinet; "How many new hospitals?" "Forty, Prime Minister".

Definitely not cheerleaders.

The John Harris piece highlights the dangers to the Tories over the run up to the next election. They have promised big. They need to deliver big - and they won't. Usually governments would come up with excuses for non-delivery and play it along that way, but we can already see that the Johnson playbook is claim delivery anyway.

"Forty Hospitals Prime Minister" is instructive. They are not building new hospitals but claiming they are anyway. A new fag shelter in the car park branded a new hospital. From the coverage I have seen this isn't well received in places where a new hospital is needed, a lick of paint and a new lean to goes up and "its a new hospital" is announced. The gamble from the Tories being that people really are that stupid.

And its the same on other measures. This week its likely that an axe will be taken to public transport (especially buses and light rail) as the government slashes subsidy - at the same time they are trumpeting expansions in public transport with its champion Boris "I love buses me" likely to still say how much money is going in even as services as slashed. Same with the towns fund where the same money is being promised three or four times over and amazingly enough not actually being spent.

This will be instructive as to how the post-Brexit era works in comparison to the post-Thatcher era. In the past when you lie to voters they tend to punish you. As Nick Clegg found out. Now we have a long list of lies and more to follow. Will people say "what hospital?" or will the need to keep going to secure that Brexit unicorn persuade people to look at the new fag shelter and say "nice hospital"?

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.

Very, very heavy rain last night. Just about as heavy as I've experienced anywhere. Didn't last very long, but long enough to damage the Cole dwelling. Or at least find the gaps in it's defences!
Fortunately, though, not in the main structure.

Hope it's not too bad.

swing_voter said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

PMSL.

Britain has been Europe's leading pro-Ukraine principle power since this began.

The reason Macron is the one doing these phone calls is because to his eternal shame, he's not been supporting Ukraine in the same way.

Ask any concerned democratic nation in Eastern Europe who the principle power has been in this crisis and they won't say France or Germany.

and after Ben Wallace's "Munich appeasement" comment I'm not sure they'll be cheering the UK either

I thought he was sticking up for them? Criticising those who were selling them down the river?

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Pulpstar, similar here. And the winds are the highest they've been during the run of storms.

Very, very heavy rain last night. Just about as heavy as I've experienced anywhere. Didn't last very long, but long enough to damage the Cole dwelling. Or at least find the gaps in it's defences!
Fortunately, though, not in the main structure.

Good luck with the repairs. Was that the cloudburst I was obsessing rather boringly about yesterday. Although noticeable, it tended to fizzle out a bit over South Wales and the South West and through the central Midlands, but stayed really strong further East and scanned southwards across Essex between around about 5.30-6.30pm.

As mentioned, it was the leading cold front behind which Franklin came in, on which the sharp 10 minute rain band formed in GB across the Southern Uplands and Northumberland and travelled as that rain band down almost the entirety of England and Wales. Hit me in Huddersfield just before 3pm (no leaks this time) and Elland Road about the same time.

swing_voter said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

PMSL.

Britain has been Europe's leading pro-Ukraine principle power since this began.

The reason Macron is the one doing these phone calls is because to his eternal shame, he's not been supporting Ukraine in the same way.

Ask any concerned democratic nation in Eastern Europe who the principle power has been in this crisis and they won't say France or Germany.

and after Ben Wallace's "Munich appeasement" comment I'm not sure they'll be cheering the UK either

There may be an element of hard cop/soft cop going on - from the West's viewpoint, Biden leading the "war is imminent, sanctions will be ferocious" charge and Macron offering an alternative with a potential path to a climbdown. Macron and Biden are in constant touch and it's unlikely that they've reached totally different conclusions. We should probably wait for it to play out before we judge.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Weather is getting utterly vile outside again and house is getting quite chilly despite the heating being on, just had to turn it up more. Seems like Storm Franklin could be worse than Eunice around here at least.

Hope Spring arrives soon. This week's weather has wrecked the plans I'd made for half-term.

Windy.com suggests there's another incoming after this one

StillWaters said:

CarlottaVance said:

StillWaters said:

swing_voter said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

PMSL.

Britain has been Europe's leading pro-Ukraine principle power since this began.

The reason Macron is the one doing these phone calls is because to his eternal shame, he's not been supporting Ukraine in the same way.

Ask any concerned democratic nation in Eastern Europe who the principle power has been in this crisis and they won't say France or Germany.

and after Ben Wallace's "Munich appeasement" comment I'm not sure they'll be cheering the UK either

I thought he was sticking up for them? Criticising those who were selling them down the river?

Exactly:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60366088

BBC describes Munich as “diplomacy that failed”… hmm

The Munich Agreement (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement) was diplomacy and it did fail.

Malmesbury said:

StillWaters said:

CarlottaVance said:

StillWaters said:

swing_voter said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

PMSL.

Britain has been Europe's leading pro-Ukraine principle power since this began.

The reason Macron is the one doing these phone calls is because to his eternal shame, he's not been supporting Ukraine in the same way.

Ask any concerned democratic nation in Eastern Europe who the principle power has been in this crisis and they won't say France or Germany.

and after Ben Wallace's "Munich appeasement" comment I'm not sure they'll be cheering the UK either

I thought he was sticking up for them? Criticising those who were selling them down the river?

Exactly:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60366088

BBC describes Munich as “diplomacy that failed”… hmm

The Munich Agreement (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement) was diplomacy and it did fail.

Most people would have a more critical perspective (albeit with the benefit of hindsight)

StillWaters said:

Malmesbury said:

StillWaters said:

CarlottaVance said:

StillWaters said:

swing_voter said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting list of when the chips are down who was actually called: not the Poles or the EU Commission.

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1495541262572740608

President Macron just had a second (!) phone conversation today with President Putin which lasted one hour. This conversation follows calls of the 🇫🇷 President with his 🇺🇦, 🇺🇸, 🇩🇪 and 🇬🇧 counterparts. Intense diplomatic activity from Paris.

Brexit has given the French a free run at being Europe’s principal power on the world stage.

PMSL.

Britain has been Europe's leading pro-Ukraine principle power since this began.

The reason Macron is the one doing these phone calls is because to his eternal shame, he's not been supporting Ukraine in the same way.

Ask any concerned democratic nation in Eastern Europe who the principle power has been in this crisis and they won't say France or Germany.

and after Ben Wallace's "Munich appeasement" comment I'm not sure they'll be cheering the UK either

I thought he was sticking up for them? Criticising those who were selling them down the river?

Exactly:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60366088

BBC describes Munich as “diplomacy that failed”… hmm

The Munich Agreement (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement) was diplomacy and it did fail.

Most people would have a more critical perspective (albeit with the benefit of hindsight)

Well, it was disastrous diplomacy and the failure killed 50 million people.

Even by the standards of government projects......

Off Topic

What are people expecting from the announcement re COVID.

I am wondering whether the smart move would be to announce using the ONS survey to monitor the COVID, rather than mass testing. The delay in reporting could be dealt with by making the sampling more frequent.

I am expecting PCR tests to be via your GP, possibly keep lateral tests for the moment...