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The Corbyn Conundrum – politicalbetting.com

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    DavidL said:

    There's a coincidence - Russian TV crew were on the spot at exactly the right moment - what are the chances?*

    Russian media "News Front" was conveniently on the site of shelling of Vasylivka water pumping station and published a video of hits last night

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494948705044152325?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    *zero - ed.

    Russia is now allegedly evacuating citizens from the Donetsk area in light of an imminent Ukrainian attack. Because, of course, that is what you do when your opponent has forces nearly 2x your entire army situated in a high state of readiness on your borders. When better to attacK?

    It might, on the other hand, be used to help persuade Russians that there is no alternative to an attack. It is increasingly looking as if Putin means this. I wonder when we will find out what was in Liz Truss's military alliance with the Ukraine.
    But how do you get 700,000 people to leave their homes as a charade? Big false flag explosions you can do, but I don't see how those people would be so cooperative as to assist in creating a fake refugee wave. It really does appear that there has been shelling (from both sides) and the war in the Russian separatist regions is on again.
    When men with guns tell you to leave your home most people, for better or worse, will comply.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Even if you could engineer that (and you certainly couldn't), the votes aren't there. Zemmour gives 7 points to Le Pen and 8 to Pecresse, and that still leaves Macron in joint first.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    DavidL said:

    There's a coincidence - Russian TV crew were on the spot at exactly the right moment - what are the chances?*

    Russian media "News Front" was conveniently on the site of shelling of Vasylivka water pumping station and published a video of hits last night

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494948705044152325?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    *zero - ed.

    Russia is now allegedly evacuating citizens from the Donetsk area in light of an imminent Ukrainian attack. Because, of course, that is what you do when your opponent has forces nearly 2x your entire army situated in a high state of readiness on your borders. When better to attacK?

    It might, on the other hand, be used to help persuade Russians that there is no alternative to an attack. It is increasingly looking as if Putin means this. I wonder when we will find out what was in Liz Truss's military alliance with the Ukraine.
    But how do you get 700,000 people to leave their homes as a charade? Big false flag explosions you can do, but I don't see how those people would be so cooperative as to assist in creating a fake refugee wave. It really does appear that there has been shelling (from both sides) and the war in the Russian separatist regions is on again.
    When men with guns tell you to leave your home most people, for better or worse, will comply.
    Perhaps. And Malmesbury's argument is also convincing. It seems obvious to me that the Russian separatists are desperate for the invasion. Whether they're acting according to Putin's choreography, or whether they're actually being a complete pain in the tits for Putin, I don't know.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372

    I'm puzzled. Biden appears convinced that an invasion of Ukraine will happen. Yet the Ukrainians don't seem to be convinced themselves. They seem to be calling Putin's bluff.

    Biden is putting pressure on Putin by making it clear to rest of the world that an invasion is planned and ready to go and all this stuff about RU turning up to support separatists that have come under intolerable pressure in Donetsk is horseshit.
    You mean Biden is saying things publicly he knows isn’t true, but as a tactic to apply pressure and deter the invasion? Okay. If it stops this invasion catastrophe I’m all in. But surely you would stick to broad brush “invasion” if you are going to put out disinformation as a tactic? Washington is now very very specific in their intelligence agencies claims of what is about to happen, Kiev itself under attack in days, a whole scale invasion not an incursion to secure another chunk.

    It does frighten and upset me a bit each time I hear it ☹️
    One thing Biden is trying to do (I think) - he is trying to convince Putin that he (Biden) has the detailed intelligence on what is happening, that Biden is quite prepared for the war and the sanctions and other measures are ready to go.

    This comes of out the "intention phase" in crisis noted by a number of authors on the subject - a problem is often that one side convinces themselves that the weakness in their plan is actually covered by the enemies weakness.

    In this case, a danger is that Putin (or his advisers) will say to themselves - "NATO will do nothing, because if they did, out attack plan would be a disaster for Russian. Therefore NATO will be weak cowards."
    Thanks 👍🏻 US would have one of the best intelligence capacity’s in the world, so when they go granular about blood and logistics, it really is terrorising Western listeners who think invasion is failure of everyone and just horrible I’m sure.
    Shining a spotlight on Russian movements, and being very clear about US intentions is about the best Biden could have done.
    It may be insufficient to deter Putin, but short of WWIII it's about the best we can do.

    I think this is one area where Biden's previous experience has greatly benefitted his administration. He might not now be sharp enough to rapidly respond to novel events, but this is an area of the world he knows very well from his time as VP.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mr. G, ah ha! You're referring to the Pechenegs!

    :D You will run out of countries eventually MD :D
    Some bunch of barbarians chopped off the northern third of Northumbria in the 10th century. They still haven't given it back. :smiley:
    :D
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,822

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Short answer, no.

    Why would any of Le Pen, Pecresse or Zemmour withdraw now when they are in a statistical dead heat for second? In any case, Macron beats them all in a hypothetical run off. Pecresse loses by 10, Le Pen by 14 and Zemmour by 24 as there are plenty of centre and left votes for Macron in round two (Melanchon polls 10% for example) and I suspect most LR voters, given a choice, would prefer Macron over Zemmour.

    The fascinating thing is from where is Zemmour getting his vote? Macron is polling about what he got in the first round last time. Le Pen is down four, Pecresse is five down on Fillon and Melanchon is ten down on last time. The other newcomer is the Green candidate Jadot on 6%.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    It would be accurate to say that he was bought and paid for.
    Potentially libellous to say that's still the case - though it would be entirely fair to say that he has very few scruples regarding whom he will accept as a paymaster.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372

    DavidL said:

    There's a coincidence - Russian TV crew were on the spot at exactly the right moment - what are the chances?*

    Russian media "News Front" was conveniently on the site of shelling of Vasylivka water pumping station and published a video of hits last night

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494948705044152325?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    *zero - ed.

    Russia is now allegedly evacuating citizens from the Donetsk area in light of an imminent Ukrainian attack. Because, of course, that is what you do when your opponent has forces nearly 2x your entire army situated in a high state of readiness on your borders. When better to attacK?

    It might, on the other hand, be used to help persuade Russians that there is no alternative to an attack. It is increasingly looking as if Putin means this. I wonder when we will find out what was in Liz Truss's military alliance with the Ukraine.
    But how do you get 700,000 people to leave their homes as a charade? Big false flag explosions you can do, but I don't see how those people would be so cooperative as to assist in creating a fake refugee wave. It really does appear that there has been shelling (from both sides) and the war in the Russian separatist regions is on again.
    When men with guns tell you to leave your home most people, for better or worse, will comply.
    Mass enforced population movements have not been exactly unusual in areas under Russian control...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Farooq said:

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Even if you could engineer that (and you certainly couldn't), the votes aren't there. Zemmour gives 7 points to Le Pen and 8 to Pecresse, and that still leaves Macron in joint first.
    Shame. Not that I think Macron is terrible, certainly compared to what people say about some of these alternatives, just that it would be absolutely hilarious.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,822
    This week's Stodge Saturday Patent stays on the flat at Leafy:

    3.45 Lingfield: MORLAIX
    4.20 Lingfield: SHOOT TO KILL
    4.55 Lingfield: EXTRACURRICULAR

    Stick a 1-point win on those three or flush the money down the nearest toilet (net effect similar).
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    stodge said:

    This week's Stodge Saturday Patent stays on the flat at Leafy:

    3.45 Lingfield: MORLAIX
    4.20 Lingfield: SHOOT TO KILL
    4.55 Lingfield: EXTRACURRICULAR

    Stick a 1-point win on those three or flush the money down the nearest toilet (net effect similar).

    Blocked drains ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    It would be accurate to say that he was bought and paid for.
    Potentially libellous to say that's still the case - though it would be entirely fair to say that he has very few scruples regarding whom he will accept as a paymaster.
    Seems like it would still be fair game. Previously being bought and paid for as a lobbyist would be relevant, especially if it is quite recent, in decision making you'd be thinking there was apparent bias and they'd be well advised to make crystal clear they would never be involved in anything involving those who previously paid them to be a shill.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    stodge said:

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Short answer, no.

    Why would any of Le Pen, Pecresse or Zemmour withdraw now when they are in a statistical dead heat for second? In any case, Macron beats them all in a hypothetical run off. Pecresse loses by 10, Le Pen by 14 and Zemmour by 24 as there are plenty of centre and left votes for Macron in round two (Melanchon polls 10% for example) and I suspect most LR voters, given a choice, would prefer Macron over Zemmour.

    The fascinating thing is from where is Zemmour getting his vote? Macron is polling about what he got in the first round last time. Le Pen is down four, Pecresse is five down on Fillon and Melanchon is ten down on last time. The other newcomer is the Green candidate Jadot on 6%.
    Suspect Zemmour is the only candidate that can credibly claim to be non-establishment. Le Pen and Pécresse were born into the upper middle classes. Macron in fact has a fairly normal provincial family background but seems to cultivate a patronising attitude.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    HYUFD said:

    George Galloway says both the Tories and Starmer Labour are now Blairite, liberal parties leaving a gap for him on the left and Farage on the right

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1494993917464301574?s=20&t=adnjzMkSUl3DgOcfgQyZ_g

    Excellent idea. Centrists given a choice of centrist governments in a world where almost all voters are political centrists, and the opportunity for extremists to express their views without risk to the rest of us dull liberal minded centrists.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    There's a coincidence - Russian TV crew were on the spot at exactly the right moment - what are the chances?*

    Russian media "News Front" was conveniently on the site of shelling of Vasylivka water pumping station and published a video of hits last night

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494948705044152325?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    *zero - ed.

    Russia is now allegedly evacuating citizens from the Donetsk area in light of an imminent Ukrainian attack. Because, of course, that is what you do when your opponent has forces nearly 2x your entire army situated in a high state of readiness on your borders. When better to attacK?

    It might, on the other hand, be used to help persuade Russians that there is no alternative to an attack. It is increasingly looking as if Putin means this. I wonder when we will find out what was in Liz Truss's military alliance with the Ukraine.
    But how do you get 700,000 people to leave their homes as a charade? Big false flag explosions you can do, but I don't see how those people would be so cooperative as to assist in creating a fake refugee wave. It really does appear that there has been shelling (from both sides) and the war in the Russian separatist regions is on again.
    When men with guns tell you to leave your home most people, for better or worse, will comply.
    Mass enforced population movements have not been exactly unusual in areas under Russian control...
    I'd likely move if Putin's goons told me to.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561


    Shaun Walker

    @shaunwalker7
    There seem to be four possible scenarios for Putin now:

    1. Full invasion and regime change as per US predictions.

    But how would they hold the country without a sustained occupation?

    https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1494949269735985152

    I read that quickly and thought: Oh shit, the other three options have been ruled out already.

    (I'll now take a look at the tweet thread)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    Really, could they not have chosen somewhere other than Munich for a conference to try to avert war in Europe?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,580
    Off topic, it's been snowing round our way for a couple of hours. We've decided to stay at home rather than make a trip to Skipton.

    Anyway, this does mean that we can watch a steam train in the snow...

    https://kwvr.co.uk/webcams/

    Enjoy!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    Really, could they not have chosen somewhere other than Munich for a conference to try to avert war in Europe?

    They could try Munchen instead.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    stodge said:

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Short answer, no.

    Why would any of Le Pen, Pecresse or Zemmour withdraw now when they are in a statistical dead heat for second? In any case, Macron beats them all in a hypothetical run off. Pecresse loses by 10, Le Pen by 14 and Zemmour by 24 as there are plenty of centre and left votes for Macron in round two (Melanchon polls 10% for example) and I suspect most LR voters, given a choice, would prefer Macron over Zemmour.

    The fascinating thing is from where is Zemmour getting his vote? Macron is polling about what he got in the first round last time. Le Pen is down four, Pecresse is five down on Fillon and Melanchon is ten down on last time. The other newcomer is the Green candidate Jadot on 6%.
    Yes. A French presidential election is a game of two halves. In the first round you need more direct support than the third most popular candidate. In the second round you need to be less objectionable than the other guy. Macron is more popular than any other politician standing for election (his former PM Edouard Philippe is more popular than he is, hence former, but he isn't standing) so he will get into round 2. He should also win round 2, but his most dangerous challenger would be Pécresse who is transfer friendly. She doesn't have a lot of support but she isn't objectionable either.

    Macron is in as a good place to win this election as he can be. Any odds against simply reflect the chances of something going wrong in a complicated system.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Really, could they not have chosen somewhere other than Munich for a conference to try to avert war in Europe?

    They could try Munchen instead.
    History could have a right laugh and organise a failed putsch as well.

    Unfortunately while the Tory party could manage the failed part they don’t have the balls for the putsch.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    It would be accurate to say that he was bought and paid for.
    Potentially libellous to say that's still the case - though it would be entirely fair to say that he has very few scruples regarding whom he will accept as a paymaster.
    Seems like it would still be fair game. Previously being bought and paid for as a lobbyist would be relevant, especially if it is quite recent, in decision making you'd be thinking there was apparent bias and they'd be well advised to make crystal clear they would never be involved in anything involving those who previously paid them to be a shill.
    Just call him Huawei Harri.
    Clearer, and irrefutable.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,977

    DavidL said:

    There's a coincidence - Russian TV crew were on the spot at exactly the right moment - what are the chances?*

    Russian media "News Front" was conveniently on the site of shelling of Vasylivka water pumping station and published a video of hits last night

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494948705044152325?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    *zero - ed.

    Russia is now allegedly evacuating citizens from the Donetsk area in light of an imminent Ukrainian attack. Because, of course, that is what you do when your opponent has forces nearly 2x your entire army situated in a high state of readiness on your borders. When better to attacK?

    It might, on the other hand, be used to help persuade Russians that there is no alternative to an attack. It is increasingly looking as if Putin means this. I wonder when we will find out what was in Liz Truss's military alliance with the Ukraine.
    But how do you get 700,000 people to leave their homes as a charade? Big false flag explosions you can do, but I don't see how those people would be so cooperative as to assist in creating a fake refugee wave. It really does appear that there has been shelling (from both sides) and the war in the Russian separatist regions is on again.
    If a big guy with a gun comes to the front door most people find that persuasive
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    There's a coincidence - Russian TV crew were on the spot at exactly the right moment - what are the chances?*

    Russian media "News Front" was conveniently on the site of shelling of Vasylivka water pumping station and published a video of hits last night

    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494948705044152325?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg

    *zero - ed.

    Russia is now allegedly evacuating citizens from the Donetsk area in light of an imminent Ukrainian attack. Because, of course, that is what you do when your opponent has forces nearly 2x your entire army situated in a high state of readiness on your borders. When better to attacK?

    It might, on the other hand, be used to help persuade Russians that there is no alternative to an attack. It is increasingly looking as if Putin means this. I wonder when we will find out what was in Liz Truss's military alliance with the Ukraine.
    But how do you get 700,000 people to leave their homes as a charade? Big false flag explosions you can do, but I don't see how those people would be so cooperative as to assist in creating a fake refugee wave. It really does appear that there has been shelling (from both sides) and the war in the Russian separatist regions is on again.
    When men with guns tell you to leave your home most people, for better or worse, will comply.
    Mass enforced population movements have not been exactly unusual in areas under Russian control...
    I'd likely move if Putin's goons told me to.
    ‘Move your arse comrade, you’re blocking our view of Salisbury Cathedral’
    Is that the finish line for their Ukraine push?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    stodge said:

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Short answer, no.

    Why would any of Le Pen, Pecresse or Zemmour withdraw now when they are in a statistical dead heat for second? In any case, Macron beats them all in a hypothetical run off. Pecresse loses by 10, Le Pen by 14 and Zemmour by 24 as there are plenty of centre and left votes for Macron in round two (Melanchon polls 10% for example) and I suspect most LR voters, given a choice, would prefer Macron over Zemmour.

    The fascinating thing is from where is Zemmour getting his vote? Macron is polling about what he got in the first round last time. Le Pen is down four, Pecresse is five down on Fillon and Melanchon is ten down on last time. The other newcomer is the Green candidate Jadot on 6%.
    Zemmour gives Pecresse a good chance to get to the runoff though if he draws more from Le Pen than her. At the moment though he is drawing from both equally so Pecresse is unable to break free of Zemmour and Le Pen to take second.

    If she does manage to still get to the runoff she could then run Macron close if she rallies most Zemmour and Le Pen voters behind her to beat Macron
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    It's going fine. He's still alive.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,807
    What are the chances?



  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Nigelb said:

    stodge said:

    This week's Stodge Saturday Patent stays on the flat at Leafy:

    3.45 Lingfield: MORLAIX
    4.20 Lingfield: SHOOT TO KILL
    4.55 Lingfield: EXTRACURRICULAR

    Stick a 1-point win on those three or flush the money down the nearest toilet (net effect similar).

    Blocked drains ?
    Morlaix - for your all weather toilet.

    I should laugh, I haven’t had a winner in weeks! 😖
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Nigelb said:

    I'm puzzled. Biden appears convinced that an invasion of Ukraine will happen. Yet the Ukrainians don't seem to be convinced themselves. They seem to be calling Putin's bluff.

    Biden is putting pressure on Putin by making it clear to rest of the world that an invasion is planned and ready to go and all this stuff about RU turning up to support separatists that have come under intolerable pressure in Donetsk is horseshit.
    You mean Biden is saying things publicly he knows isn’t true, but as a tactic to apply pressure and deter the invasion? Okay. If it stops this invasion catastrophe I’m all in. But surely you would stick to broad brush “invasion” if you are going to put out disinformation as a tactic? Washington is now very very specific in their intelligence agencies claims of what is about to happen, Kiev itself under attack in days, a whole scale invasion not an incursion to secure another chunk.

    It does frighten and upset me a bit each time I hear it ☹️
    One thing Biden is trying to do (I think) - he is trying to convince Putin that he (Biden) has the detailed intelligence on what is happening, that Biden is quite prepared for the war and the sanctions and other measures are ready to go.

    This comes of out the "intention phase" in crisis noted by a number of authors on the subject - a problem is often that one side convinces themselves that the weakness in their plan is actually covered by the enemies weakness.

    In this case, a danger is that Putin (or his advisers) will say to themselves - "NATO will do nothing, because if they did, out attack plan would be a disaster for Russian. Therefore NATO will be weak cowards."
    Thanks 👍🏻 US would have one of the best intelligence capacity’s in the world, so when they go granular about blood and logistics, it really is terrorising Western listeners who think invasion is failure of everyone and just horrible I’m sure.
    Shining a spotlight on Russian movements, and being very clear about US intentions is about the best Biden could have done.
    It may be insufficient to deter Putin, but short of WWIII it's about the best we can do.

    I think this is one area where Biden's previous experience has greatly benefitted his administration. He might not now be sharp enough to rapidly respond to novel events, but this is an area of the world he knows very well from his time as VP.
    Absolutely. He had the laptops to show for it.

    I don’t rate Biden’s administration at all to be honest. the supporting cast around him don’t impress either. It doesn’t really matter what Biden is saying, if he’s barking it half patronisingly half unconvincing. It’s only a 4 year administration though, replaced by either new republican or democrat one.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    Cummings instantly questioned the speed of Gooty’s security clearance the moment the “I will survive” song was barely over, is out in the public domain so not libellous to repeat here? (If it is please delete for me I don’t want another ban!)
  • Options
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    It would be accurate to say that he was bought and paid for.
    Potentially libellous to say that's still the case - though it would be entirely fair to say that he has very few scruples regarding whom he will accept as a paymaster.
    ** *** ***

    I’ve had a few glasses of vino already and sailing close to the wind today!
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    That exact same hypocrisy has been evident on here. People cleaving to supposed ideological tribes rather than having even a vague sense of right and wrong.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,909
    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Replacement equipment is being held up by the world wide chip shortage.
    Quick and spot on 👍🏻
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,020
    Farooq said:

    That exact same hypocrisy has been evident on here. People cleaving to supposed ideological tribes rather than having even a vague sense of right and wrong.
    I suspect it's evident on this very issue. Have any of the people who think the Police Bill is an existential threat to the freedom to protest condemned Justin Trudeau's handling of the protests in Canada?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130

    You do wonder how the British presenter on RT news channel feels his career's going when he reads out about how "orphans are being evacuated to Russia as Ukrainian shelling intensifies".

    It's going fine. He's still alive.
    And on the upside he has not humiliated himself by trying and failing to get elected to the Scottish Parliament like some of this colleagues.
  • Options

    Farooq said:

    That exact same hypocrisy has been evident on here. People cleaving to supposed ideological tribes rather than having even a vague sense of right and wrong.
    I suspect it's evident on this very issue. Have any of the people who think the Police Bill is an existential threat to the freedom to protest condemned Justin Trudeau's handling of the protests in Canada?
    No, but it's a bit of a stretch and not just geographically, isn't it?
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    *🐎 update

    WOOOOOOOOOO WHAAAAAAAAA
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    edited February 2022

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Replacement equipment is being held up by the world wide chip shortage.
    Quick and spot on 👍🏻
    It's a single example but Razer's new laptop range is 25-40% more expensive than last years models. Which is unique because laptops have previously been built to a price point but they've had to bin that just to cover the new prices.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    Leon said:

    What are the chances?



    You can see why Maxwell's brothers are more than a bit nervous.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Replacement equipment is being held up by the world wide chip shortage.
    Quick and spot on 👍🏻
    It's a single example but Razer's new laptop range is 25-40% more expensive than last years models. Which is unique because laptops have previously been built to a price point but they've had to bin that just to cover the new prices.

    So it might end up a bit more than 6 months. 😕
  • Options

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Replacement equipment is being held up by the world wide chip shortage.
    Quick and spot on 👍🏻
    It's a single example but Razer's new laptop range is 25-40% more expensive than last years models. Which is unique because laptops have previously been built to a price point but they've had to bin that just to cover the new prices.

    So it might end up a bit more than 6 months. 😕
    If only you'd put another £10 on Wholestone, that would have covered it.

    As it was you have won me £22.50, thanks, I don't normally follow punts on here, but did today.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    An interesting piece @Quincel . From what I see on social media the Jeremy is lauded as the King who was Cheated. The man who has always been right, who has been defamed by the right and who must pre preserved from attack at all costs.

    As so many other issues rage it has been instructive watching left intellectuals like Ricky Dicky Burgon launching yet another round of reinstate the Jeremy. If you are winners lik Pidcock, Webbe, Burgon etc then the removal of the Jeremy is the final crime.

    There is no chance that an apology is coming, so no chance of His reinstatement under the whip, which means one of three things happens. He graciously retires thus solving the problem. He runs as an independent and takes all the remaining hardened trots with him, or he runs under a different banner with the same result.

    If he runs either as an independent or under Peace & Justice / TUSC / Left Unity / Scab Action or whatever, he will lose. If nothing else because his friends will be bussed in from around the country to canvas, in that finger jabbing in the face argumentative style that is so effective.

    Final point. Fun as it would be to see Sultana et al exit the Labour Party I can't see them doing so.

    I don't know. Remember that Livingstone ran as an Independent and beat Dobson in a London-wide election. If Corbyn resigns and fights a by-election I reckon he'd win. In a GE, not so much. You're right however that he'd be doomed if he adopts a hard left banner; his best bet is to run as the 'wronged independent' and trade on his long local track record. Labour may struggle to find a credible local candidate willing to run against him, and if they parachute some student politician in, they could be in trouble.
    I agree, I think he’d walk it especially if some Blairite SPAD type is parachuted in. The Zarah Sultana’s of the world would have no chance at all under their own steam but labour needs to be a broad church and Zarah Sultana should be just as at home in the movement as Wes Streeting
    True, although both Streeting and Sultana exemplify another of Labour’s (and indeed wider politics’) problems in advancing people with no life experience outside lobbying, campaigning and political bag carrying.

    We’d be better off represented by people who came to politics having worked in the real world and achieved something worthwhile before they decided to come looking for our votes.
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    I try to err towards "freedom", lack of restrictions and "if in doubt do nowt" but I think that there is a genuine issue with highly disruptive protests. A lot of people simply oppose any restrictions on "non-violent" demonstrations but what about "forceful" demonstrations that limit the freedom of others and have potentially serious side effects?

    Then here is the perspective of maintaining public order when an ideologically motivated minority disrupt the lives of the majority. Without a heavy police presence extinction rebellion and insulate UK would be in physical danger as the public intervened to remove the obstructions in a timely manner. These are not simple matters to get right but not recognising that there is a category of protest actions that lie between peaceful protest and riot/terrorism is naïve.
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    Who wants to blow up your new car, when you can stick the plates on an old one and blow that up instead?

    I kid you not. Not only did the separatists prerecord the evacuation videos, but they also didn’t want to blow up the DNR militia head’s expensive UAZ Patriot so badly, they put its number plates on a different old UAZ worth a thousand bucks. Spotted by @djxtrees

    https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1495015587873009667?s=21
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    *🐎 update

    WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    I try to err towards "freedom", lack of restrictions and "if in doubt do nowt" but I think that there is a genuine issue with highly disruptive protests. A lot of people simply oppose any restrictions on "non-violent" demonstrations but what about "forceful" demonstrations that limit the freedom of others and have potentially serious side effects?

    Then here is the perspective of maintaining public order when an ideologically motivated minority disrupt the lives of the majority. Without a heavy police presence extinction rebellion and insulate UK would be in physical danger as the public intervened to remove the obstructions in a timely manner. These are not simple matters to get right but not recognising that there is a category of protest actions that lie between peaceful protest and riot/terrorism is naïve.

    But is what is needed new laws, or simply for the police to enforce the existing ones, and the justice system to uphold them?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    I try to err towards "freedom", lack of restrictions and "if in doubt do nowt" but I think that there is a genuine issue with highly disruptive protests. A lot of people simply oppose any restrictions on "non-violent" demonstrations but what about "forceful" demonstrations that limit the freedom of others and have potentially serious side effects?

    Then here is the perspective of maintaining public order when an ideologically motivated minority disrupt the lives of the majority. Without a heavy police presence extinction rebellion and insulate UK would be in physical danger as the public intervened to remove the obstructions in a timely manner. These are not simple matters to get right but not recognising that there is a category of protest actions that lie between peaceful protest and riot/terrorism is naïve.

    The reason they are able to cause such disruption is an interesting piece of evidence about the resilience and capacity of networks, such as the road network. If you can cause major problems by blocking a couple of roads, there either need to be more roads or fewer users or both.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,320
    IanB2 said:



    True, although both Streeting and Sultana exemplify another of Labour’s (and indeed wider politics’) problems in advancing people with no life experience outside lobbying, campaigning and political bag carrying.

    We’d be better off represented by people who came to politics having worked in the real world and achieved something worthwhile before they decided to come looking for our votes.

    Yes, but although I've never felt that MPs should be drawn in for careerist reasons, it's undoubtedly true that - with rare exceptions - you usually need to get into Parliament before you're 40 to be considered as potential Cabinet material. since the ladder takes 15-20 years to climb. Obviously you've had some experience of something at 35, but I'm not sure how far it will have given you all-round understanding of how Britain works.

    Nobody at any age has experienced all the types of challenges that constituents have - shopkeeping, single parenting, soldiering, building, being unemployed, etc. What's more important is really recognition of your limited experience and willingness to understand other situations. I've never felt that because someone was at Eton (or any other background) they can't do it, but they need to recognise that they've got a lot to learn.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,393
    edited February 2022
    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,807
    NDTV
    @ndtv
    ·
    1m
    #NewsAlert | Germany asks citizens to leave #Ukraine 'urgently': official

    (AFP news agency)
  • Options
    I don't remember Baker or anyone else in the British Government proposing that the authorities should seize and kill the pets of the Extinction Rebellion protestors, take their children into care or seize and freeze their personal bank accounts. All of these have been threatened or done by the Canadian authorities.

    I will admit that Trudeau seems to be taking a lesson out of Johnson's playbook by cancelling Parliamentary sessions to avoid having his actions voted down but the rest of it is something that would have been considered completely unacceptable over here.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,320
    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    i'm more into reading than listening, but you might consider https://www.gatesnotes.com/?WT.tsrc=BGEM - maybe it's a bit like you describe EdM's blogs, but I like his enquiring mind and underlying optimstic, generous philosophy.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    There's been a Murdo. Again.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,393
    edited February 2022

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    Aren't you supposed to throw things at the wall in the hope that some of it will stick?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    edited February 2022

    IanB2 said:



    True, although both Streeting and Sultana exemplify another of Labour’s (and indeed wider politics’) problems in advancing people with no life experience outside lobbying, campaigning and political bag carrying.

    We’d be better off represented by people who came to politics having worked in the real world and achieved something worthwhile before they decided to come looking for our votes.

    Yes, but although I've never felt that MPs should be drawn in for careerist reasons, it's undoubtedly true that - with rare exceptions - you usually need to get into Parliament before you're 40 to be considered as potential Cabinet material. since the ladder takes 15-20 years to climb. Obviously you've had some experience of something at 35, but I'm not sure how far it will have given you all-round understanding of how Britain works.

    Nobody at any age has experienced all the types of challenges that constituents have - shopkeeping, single parenting, soldiering, building, being unemployed, etc. What's more important is really recognition of your limited experience and willingness to understand other situations. I've never felt that because someone was at Eton (or any other background) they can't do it, but they need to recognise that they've got a lot to learn.
    Streeting for me, my having spent eight years on the council with him, is the case in point. He is clearly very able and his backstory does him no harm. Yet he went straight from Cambridge to the NUS to lobbying for Baroness Kennedy to Stonewall to MP. At nearly 40 he still comes across as an over-earnest student politician and he’d be so much better off if he had some real life adult experience to deploy.
  • Options

    I try to err towards "freedom", lack of restrictions and "if in doubt do nowt" but I think that there is a genuine issue with highly disruptive protests. A lot of people simply oppose any restrictions on "non-violent" demonstrations but what about "forceful" demonstrations that limit the freedom of others and have potentially serious side effects?

    Then here is the perspective of maintaining public order when an ideologically motivated minority disrupt the lives of the majority. Without a heavy police presence extinction rebellion and insulate UK would be in physical danger as the public intervened to remove the obstructions in a timely manner. These are not simple matters to get right but not recognising that there is a category of protest actions that lie between peaceful protest and riot/terrorism is naïve.

    But is what is needed new laws, or simply for the police to enforce the existing ones, and the justice system to uphold them?
    That is a good question. At times it looked like insulate UK and extinction Rebellion were officially sanctioned movements getting an astonishing lack of resistance from the police, actually almost facilitation. Taking hours to clear a sit down on a motorway seems ludicrous. Two thoughts occur to me. The lead up to COP 26 and BoJo's pathetic attempts to burnish his green credentials and nervousness about getting juries to convict grannies, vicars and young women activists. The authorities may have played a clever game in allowing them enough rope to be guilty of contempt of court so no need for juries? I think it is highly probable that some juries wouldn't convict whilst other parts of the great British public would kick three shades of shit out of them given half a chance.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    I try to err towards "freedom", lack of restrictions and "if in doubt do nowt" but I think that there is a genuine issue with highly disruptive protests. A lot of people simply oppose any restrictions on "non-violent" demonstrations but what about "forceful" demonstrations that limit the freedom of others and have potentially serious side effects?

    Then here is the perspective of maintaining public order when an ideologically motivated minority disrupt the lives of the majority. Without a heavy police presence extinction rebellion and insulate UK would be in physical danger as the public intervened to remove the obstructions in a timely manner. These are not simple matters to get right but not recognising that there is a category of protest actions that lie between peaceful protest and riot/terrorism is naïve.

    But is what is needed new laws, or simply for the police to enforce the existing ones, and the justice system to uphold them?
    A question politicians don't ask themselves enough. Making a new law sounds more impressive.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    MattW said:

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    Aren't you supposed to throw things at the wall in the hope that some of it will stick?
    What is a ceiling but an upstairs wall?
  • Options

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    I hope you backed your own tips appropriately... should pay for the ceiling
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    A professional doing a job for a client while they're getting paid generally.

    Considering he's a *former* lobbyist for them, I fail to see how he's bought and paid for. A current lobbyist absolutely is an issue, but why a former one?

    Do you think an advertiser believes for life in every single advert they've designed for a client?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    A professional doing a job for a client while they're getting paid generally.

    Considering he's a *former* lobbyist for them, I fail to see how he's bought and paid for. A current lobbyist absolutely is an issue, but why a former one?

    Do you think an advertiser believes for life in every single advert they've designed for a client?
    If he was receiving money from them pretty recently then a period of distance until he is near anything sensitive is only appropriate, like a councillor who is an architect not being involved in a planning committee decision involving a former client within too close a period.

    And his supporters can hardly whinge about a nickname if it is entirely accurate and above board, so what is the issue?
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,645
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    A professional doing a job for a client while they're getting paid generally.

    Considering he's a *former* lobbyist for them, I fail to see how he's bought and paid for. A current lobbyist absolutely is an issue, but why a former one?

    Do you think an advertiser believes for life in every single advert they've designed for a client?
    If he was receiving money from them pretty recently then a period of distance until he is near anything sensitive is only appropriate, like a councillor who is an architect not being involved in a planning committee decision involving a former client within too close a period.

    And his supporters can hardly whinge about a nickname if it is entirely accurate and above board, so what is the issue?
    I have no opinion in whether he's suitable or not, nor do I know how recently we are talking about? If it was six weeks ago, that'd be a real concern. If it was six years ago, it wouldn't.

    A period of distance is something I'd completely agree with but once that period is over, people should be able to move on from former jobs they've had.

    If Roger was paid big bucks to make an advert for the Conservative Party in the past, I wouldn't think that automatically makes him a Conservative.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,452
    It's the difference between peaceful and non-peaceful protest.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,440
    Summary of the current affairs in Ukraine.

    "What has been happening in and around #Ukraine in the past 24 hours. THREAD."

    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1494967622638710784

    There's even maps for those of us who don't know our DPR to our LPR.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited February 2022

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Blaming covid for the delay. Is that not fair, or do you suspect some other reason?
    Guto Hari is bought and paid for by China.
    Much as I loathe Johnson, I would be concerned that what you have suggested there could be libellous, so you might want to delete perhaps?
    He was previously a Huawei lobbyist and has refused confirm to MPs and other parties that he supports the removal of Huawei network equipment from the UK. It's not controversial to say that a lobbyist for a Chinese state controlled company (controlled by the PLA and Chinese intelligence no less) is bought and paid for by China. It's true.
    Suggesting he has questionable motives and relationships is one thing, suggesting he is an asset (bought and paid for) of the Chinese is another.
    What else is a lobbyist?
    A professional doing a job for a client while they're getting paid generally.

    Considering he's a *former* lobbyist for them, I fail to see how he's bought and paid for. A current lobbyist absolutely is an issue, but why a former one?

    Do you think an advertiser believes for life in every single advert they've designed for a client?
    You know just as well as anyone else that it's naive to assume you can safely draw a line between past activities and current ones. That's why some "revolving door" prohibitions exist. These are legitimate concerns.
  • Options
    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Leon said:

    What are the chances?



    A weird STD passing around that clique that provokes suicidal tendencies? It's the only explanation.....
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    *🐎 update

    WOOOOOOOOOO WHAAAAAAAAA

    disaster for me my banker horse beaten , and it was my second choice , why do I do it.
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    There's been a Murdo. Again.
    I'm assuming that Murdo as a follower of the Queen's 11, one of whose lovely folk songs venerates a prominent Scottish member of the BUF and the Ku Klux Klan, intends this as a compliment.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    malcolmg said:

    *🐎 update

    WOOOOOOOOOO WHAAAAAAAAA

    disaster for me my banker horse beaten , and it was my second choice , why do I do it.
    I haven’t had a winner for weeks, now I had 3/4 on a luckily 15. And it was fun.

    We do it because even on a winless day it’s still always a bit of fun?

    I need to get that pizza topping off the ceiling now before the other half gets in. 🤔
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,909

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    i'm more into reading than listening, but you might consider https://www.gatesnotes.com/?WT.tsrc=BGEM - maybe it's a bit like you describe EdM's blogs, but I like his enquiring mind and underlying optimstic, generous philosophy.
    Ah - I have dipped into his notes from time to time. I do enjoy his optimistic outlook - it's fascinating to read about what they are working on. Especially as he has the drive (and money!) to make a lot of it happen. Thanks for the reminder - I'll dig through some of the recent stuff!
  • Options

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    Correction - think it was a Scottish Green who made $USA > CSA claim?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    Andy_JS said:

    It's the difference between peaceful and non-peaceful protest.
    Is gluing yourself to the road peaceful or not peaceful in your opinion?
  • Options

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Leon said:

    What are the chances?


    A weird STD passing around that clique that provokes suicidal tendencies? It's the only explanation.....
    It is clear that elites across Western countries have individuals in powerful positions doing cover ups of pedophiles. This guy in France, Epstein's death in the USA, files disappearing in the UK. And the public are so easily distracted from it.

    What happened to the UK grooming inquiry? Is anyone in either the Tories or Labour speaking up about it being buried? Is our political class entirely absent of people willing to stand up to the pedophile rings?
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,440
    edited February 2022
    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    I've recently enjoyed

    https://www.politico.eu/westminster-insider-podcast/
    https://bylinetimes.com/podcast/

    Nothing to do with politics but

    https://fallofcivilizationspodcast.com/

    is fantastic. They're v-rare maybe 3 a year but long and truly great. Something to sit down to and actually listen. The Byzantium and Easter island episodes are my most played.

  • Options

    malcolmg said:

    *🐎 update

    WOOOOOOOOOO WHAAAAAAAAA

    disaster for me my banker horse beaten , and it was my second choice , why do I do it.
    I haven’t had a winner for weeks, now I had 3/4 on a luckily 15. And it was fun.

    We do it because even on a winless day it’s still always a bit of fun?

    I need to get that pizza topping off the ceiling now before the other half gets in. 🤔
    Well, it's £33 you won me, so thanks.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Macron would have to drop to third to get eliminated in the first round. That means you would need two right wing candidates with more than 25% of the vote (i.e. at least 50% between them). Their total right now is 47%.

    Unless macron drops to 20% in the polls, I think it's unlikely.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,440

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    I've recently enjoyed

    https://www.politico.eu/westminster-insider-podcast/
    https://bylinetimes.com/podcast/

    Nothing to do with politics but

    https://fallofcivilizationspodcast.com/

    is fantastic. They're v-rare maybe 3 a year but long and truly great. Something to sit down to and actually listen. The Byzantium and Easter island episodes are my most played.

    Not to spam too much but the boards quiet so....

    Just seen fall of civ have released ep14 The Vijayanagara Empire of South India.

    https://twitter.com/Fall_of_Civ_Pod/status/1494631942721085440?cxt=HHwWgIC9_af1_70pAAAA
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    malcolmg said:

    *🐎 update

    WOOOOOOOOOO WHAAAAAAAAA

    disaster for me my banker horse beaten , and it was my second choice , why do I do it.
    I haven’t had a winner for weeks, now I had 3/4 on a luckily 15. And it was fun.

    We do it because even on a winless day it’s still always a bit of fun?

    I need to get that pizza topping off the ceiling now before the other half gets in. 🤔
    Well, it's £33 you won me, so thanks.
    No worries 🤗

    Was that wholestone?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,962
    edited February 2022

    MattW said:

    I admit I have not followed the undercurrents of this one.



    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1494692348491612161

    As has been previously noted on PB (by yours truly) the US Federal government did NOT pay pensions to Confederate veterans or dependents.

    It is true that some CSA vets & dependents DID receive STATE pensions, that is pensions enacted, funded and paid out by state governments, NOT the feds.

    Brits simply do NOT understand American federalism, and are constantly uttering/publishing howlers as a result.

    Such as the Scottish Nationalist claiming that USA paid for CSA pensions - and The Spectator refuting the claim via half-baked legal argument (based on Texas v White) which was also total BS.
    Point of pedantry, the other party involved is Ross Greer, Green MSP. He would probably resent being caled a nationalist of any stripe, regardless of what the Union flag shaggers say.

    Edit: sorry, I see you self corrected!
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    Aren't you supposed to throw things at the wall in the hope that some of it will stick?
    What is a ceiling but an upstairs wall?
    An upside down floor. ☺️

    Right now it’s a shame can’t drape some carpet on them.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,320

    Summary of the current affairs in Ukraine.

    "What has been happening in and around #Ukraine in the past 24 hours. THREAD."

    https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1494967622638710784

    There's even maps for those of us who don't know our DPR to our LPR.

    I was chatting about ward boundary changes to someone from another party yesterday, and he admitted that after recent developments he was more familiar with the map of the Donbas then some of the outlying areas of our constituency...
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,787
    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    That is sad that talking politics is stopping. I've not listened to it in ages though because it felt in the end like Runciman and co could not actually make sense of events as they unfolded in relation to Brexit and BoJo. They had some excellent guests though. The interview with Shoshana Zuboff regarding her book on surveillance capitalism had a massive influence on me.

    Regarding podcasts in general, in my experience a few are great, many more much less so and a waste of time. The problem is the standards of editing that apply say on the radio don't apply so there is a lot of rubbish going around. I do like triggernometry, but that is perhaps because my political views and general outlook is very close to Konstantin Kisin, one of the hosts. Again it is only certain episodes that are good, they are very insightful at dealing with trans issues, for instance.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,909

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather off-topic. But one of my regular UK political podcast listens is finishing up for good ('Talking Politics') and I'm looking for something to replace it. I tried Ed Millibands for a while after a recommendation, but found the "I like IdeaX - and I've found two policy wonks who agree it's an amazing idea!" format a bit tiring.

    I don't mind left/right/centre - as long as it's not way out there. Ideally something UK-based, but with a bit of international coverage too.

    I've recently enjoyed

    https://www.politico.eu/westminster-insider-podcast/
    https://bylinetimes.com/podcast/

    Nothing to do with politics but

    https://fallofcivilizationspodcast.com/

    is fantastic. They're v-rare maybe 3 a year but long and truly great. Something to sit down to and actually listen. The Byzantium and Easter island episodes are my most played.

    Oh - thanks very much for those - I'll give them all a go. I enjoy Dan Carlin's 'Hardcore History' podcasts so the Fall of Civilisations one sounds like an unexpected treat!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
  • Options

    malcolmg said:

    *🐎 update

    WOOOOOOOOOO WHAAAAAAAAA

    disaster for me my banker horse beaten , and it was my second choice , why do I do it.
    I haven’t had a winner for weeks, now I had 3/4 on a luckily 15. And it was fun.

    We do it because even on a winless day it’s still always a bit of fun?

    I need to get that pizza topping off the ceiling now before the other half gets in. 🤔
    Well, it's £33 you won me, so thanks.
    No worries 🤗

    Was that wholestone?
    Today, I decided to follow a collection of tips on here, but only for pin money. All four of yours. Perhaps I will quit while I'm ahead.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561

    *🐎 update

    IVE GOT PIZZA ON THE CEILING

    You'll never scrape the pineapple off.
    Good job I didn’t use pineapple 😃 Sumac chicken, onion, drizzled honey, squeeze of lemon
    Honey?? On a pizza?
    Oh don’t start another bout of Pizza Nazism. 🙂
    No wonder it's stuck to the ceiling! ;-)
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    rcs1000 said:

    Current French presidential polls look something like this:

    Macron - 24%
    Le Pen - 17%
    Pecresse - 15%
    Zemmour - 15%

    So if one of the right candidates pulls out and their votes get reallocated to the other two, could Macron get eliminated in the first round?

    Macron would have to drop to third to get eliminated in the first round. That means you would need two right wing candidates with more than 25% of the vote (i.e. at least 50% between them). Their total right now is 47%.

    Unless macron drops to 20% in the polls, I think it's unlikely.
    That's assuming the polls are accurate. And there is still time for things to shift a bit.
This discussion has been closed.