The Corbyn Conundrum – politicalbetting.com
The Corbyn Conundrum – politicalbetting.com
Keir Starmer has it in for Jeremy Corbyn.
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The Corbyn Conundrum – politicalbetting.com
The Corbyn Conundrum – politicalbetting.com
Keir Starmer has it in for Jeremy Corbyn.
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However Despite Ukraine sovereignty and right to self determination tottering on the brink yet again tonight, it’s been blown off the front of many front pages I’ve just read through. There’s plenty on these UK front pages I like tonight - I posted all week there needs to be unity amongst allies for best impact, it seems there’s no agreed sanction package yet because of too much wrangling between allies, but Boris is going to Munich now to sort it out. UK going to our EU allies and influencing them is exactly what I’ve wanted to see more of 🙂 I have posted for months I feel sorry for our security services trying to protect our way of life because I don’t trust our greedy and gullible MPs to be on board with this, and the Mail seems to be pushing this line too in their big front page story today. MSM pushing this can only be a good thing in my opinion. 🙂
I mean - what?
Is your greeting to do with diets? https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/read-this/brits-set-to-abandon-new-years-diets-on-19th-february-new-data-reveals-3549946
Headers like this one make the site a great read for political betting. They deserve a response 👍🏻
It has highlighted some important things in weighing up this niche bet, such as Starmer’s control of the NEC being the ultimate factor in a whipless MP standing, despite grey area’s in the rule books. But there’s a couple of other ifs and buts too I would like to comment on. I think I saw the Starmer interview this week quoted in header, but previously Starmer has said Corbyn knows exactly what he needs to do and say in order to have whip restored, I think Starmer’s hard line can only survive so far if Corbyn does do those things - rather like in The Gumball Rally film when they slowed down just for a little while and the police chief could not do anything about it! When Starmer pushed through his reforms at the last party conference, likely his mind was on things like this, but not to forget the unions neutered the reforms pushed through at last Party conference, in what momentum called a successful victory over Starmer, likely their minds were on this too! I note and seriously considered where Quincel said “MP’s personal votes are generally much smaller than they think” which I suspect is true in general, such as all the whipless people losing at end of last parliament, but can throw up exceptions, Red Ken beating his own party in London for example, and there’s a common denominator here in word London, it could be Corbyn is way offUK main stream with his pro PLO stance and other hobby horses but on his patch his voters also being way off UK main stream in sharing all that with him.
Hope this helps 🙂.
https://www.facebook.com/dave.quantrill.3/videos/1317114938763528/
“I urge fellow countrymen who are in reserve to come to the military commissariats. Today I signed a decree on general mobilization,"
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1494921859359555585?s=21
Ironic, for the man who marched with banners of Stalin and Lenin to find himself at risk of becoming a non-person in the Party.
Seems strange to have discussion over Yesterday's Man.
On the other hand, I know what's coming. Another centre-right Labour party which steals tory clothes.
Whilst I despise the anti-semitism of Jeremy Corbyn and some of his outre views, I am a radical and an anti-capitalist. I am beginning to despair that we're going to have a repeat performance of Tony Blair who may have been according to Mike Smithson Labour's most successful ever leader but who wasn't really Labour. He may have ushered in a kinder social worldview but he stuffed the NHS full of managers, sucked the life out of the regions, directly fed the anger over immigration and Brexit, and was the kind of Metropolitan elitist that makes me want to vomit. That's not even to mention his vile invasion of Iraq, destabilising the world for at least a century.
Anyway, curling beckons.
Islington North CLP cannot select a candidate for the next election while Corbyn does not have the Labour whip - unless he says he will be retiring. Then they can select a candidate in the normal way. If Corbyn still does not have the whip when an election is called, an NEC sub-committee will decide whether he can stand for Labour or whether the NEC should create a candidate shortlist from which Islington North CLP can choose. Basically, unless he apologises - which he won’t - he will not be the Labour candidate at the next election.
The really fun bit is that if he runs against Labour anyone campaigning for, or even just publicly backing, him will be liable for expulsion from the party.
Quite why Corbyn wants the Labour whip when he has never felt any obligation to follow it is a mystery.
Typical Marxist hypocrisy.
(when Leon is here)
p.s. Good morning!
This is truer in General Elections than by-elections. In a de-selection process I wonder if Corbyn would press red and go for a poisonous by-election?
But Leader? No, promoted beyond his natural level. Should never have allowed himself to be persuaded to take the job.
It is the problem Labour have had since the fall of the Berlin Wall - most of the electorate knows that socialism doesn't work, but Labour needs socialist votes and activists. So it persecutes them but just about stops short of forcing them to set up their own party.
A couple of questions.
I note that the document linked for the detail is a set of proposals on the conference agenda, rather than the actual Labour Party Rule Book (which I don't have the energy to go and read this morning). Are we sure they were all passed?
The bizarre rules demonstrate how to manipulate the Labour Party. An electoral college amongst sub-branches is a wrinkle used by extremists such as Militant. You create potempkin sub-branches with 2 men and a hamster, then make meetings at short notice or bizarre times of the week when opponents cannot be available. And Abracadabra.
Equally, the central over-rule if close to an Election was one of the ways Blair & friends manipulated it back.
Corbyn? Not sure. For Starmer, I'd say it is symbolic.
I know that they are probably enjoying the thought of Russia cocking a snook at the west and the angst and attention on Russia not China as “the bad guys” and maybe supporting Russia against China’s “enemy” is attractive however China must also be aware that there will potentially be a knock-on to global trade especially if this spirals into a bigger issue and they really don’t need that.
They will also have seen the build up as a lab study for what would happen if they try the same with Taiwan so it’s served a purpose for them already.
So if you are China do you allow the current shenanigans to continue for a bit but step in before it goes bang?
If China has a word in Putin’s ear and says “no mate, not good for business” does Putin have to recalculate?
Can China get global kudos by stepping in and brokering “peace”?
China can walk out the winner from this without having lifted a finger.
Not sure China's world trade will be affected by a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
China will surely be looking at the bigger picture - everyone knows the old adage that no plan survives first contact with the enemy - and so will perhaps think that it’s better to stop things as they are than risk something getting out of control that they could have stopped (a recent example maybe being Covid, cough, cough).
China’s leaders are only safe as long as Chinese growth and prosperity keeps going and they have enough problems behind the scenes with the massive debt problems for builders etc. do they really want to risk a totally avoidable global recession, however small a risk right now?
They’ve learnt lessons re Western reaction and so can factor that into their Taiwan strategy but wouldn’t benefit from further hostilities in Europe.
China is in a great position - as I said they can get global (especially non western) kudos for stopping this, “look we told you us Chinese are not in favour of expansionism and empire building, just peace and love and trade”. They also, if they publicly tell Russia not to invade, are in a great position if they decided to take advantage and take over areas near the Russia/Chinese border.
Russia will be distracted in Ukraine without their military resources, and Russia can’t exactly start stamping its feet and crying about nasty Chinese invading them whilst they are invading someone else….
Shouldn’t your ire be directed at the EU who persist in this “vile nasty” trade?
It’s possible he might not even make you vomit. (Arguably not a bad election slogan if he’s running against Boris.)
I think people often forget that it wasn't just a rabid right-wing mob who voted for Brexit. There was ambivalence towards the EU which they brought on themselves.
Oh God, look at me now talking about Brexit.
This is the really big outcome of this: the new axis, as you say, of Russia+China.
As so many other issues rage it has been instructive watching left intellectuals like Ricky Dicky Burgon launching yet another round of reinstate the Jeremy. If you are winners lik Pidcock, Webbe, Burgon etc then the removal of the Jeremy is the final crime.
There is no chance that an apology is coming, so no chance of His reinstatement under the whip, which means one of three things happens. He graciously retires thus solving the problem. He runs as an independent and takes all the remaining hardened trots with him, or he runs under a different banner with the same result.
If he runs either as an independent or under Peace & Justice / TUSC / Left Unity / Scab Action or whatever, he will lose. If nothing else because his friends will be bussed in from around the country to canvas, in that finger jabbing in the face argumentative style that is so effective.
Final point. Fun as it would be to see Sultana et al exit the Labour Party I can't see them doing so.
Makes the comparison from when he was preparing to invade Iraq and says they are clearly now ready, just whether they do or not.
Back to the old “Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics”.
Also high praise from him for UK being first in to provide weaponry to Ukraine when it started kicking off.
And I don't see why we should be taking any notice of a former United States intelligence commander responsible for one of the greatest military blunders since the Second World War (in terms of the consequences) and who lied through his teeth about the intelligence behind it. Not to mention the fact that he's a convicted criminal who was forced to resign from his post.
US intelligence is crap. You'd have thought we might have learned our lessons over Weapons of Mass Destruction. Now we're expected to follow their scaremongering over Ukraine? What a load of crap.
https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/downfall-the-case-against-boeing-movie-review-2022
However, I do think that Corbyn has crossed a line and I would not be unhappy to see him leave. I always thought he would be an absolute disaster as Labour leader (I was only wrong in the sense that he was less of a disaster than I expected). I don't know what my fellow Labour members were thinking when they elected him, although I know that many who did bitterly regret it. I hope that the public can forgive us for being so monumentally stupid.
The UK one is the first afaics (apart from certain US States and India) to try and ban import / sale of foie gras.
What is now in question is whether this happens. Personally I'd like to see it come in, and I've emailed Lee Anderson to say so !
Curling? PBs first Olympian?
And they would be right to be!
They had some cracking parties in that place, I remember catching an early Northern Line train back to South London on Sunday morning.
I'm not at all pro Putin but I don't think the west and NATO have got this right. We should be more aware of understandable Russian sensibilities and we should spell out that Ukraine will never be permitted to join NATO.
And keep right out of it.
I take issue re the criticism of Petraeus though in this instance - he was talking from the perspective of the Iraq war where he was a divisional commander 2* general on the ground and pointing out the stages.
As he made clear there was the initial build up of forces and hardware and it was when the logistics were finally in place that was the point where he knew they were able/ready to go in as soon as the order came.
I think it’s clear that if you are doing exercises you require a lot less in terms of logistical support - medical resources are needed for accidents and also to train the chain but you don’t need the full medical back up of the size there for an exercise lasting a couple of weeks.
The same applies for other logistics.
I suppose it’s like your neighbour tells you they are going away for a holiday - if they walk out of the house with a couple of suitcases and get in a cab then you don’t think anything of it. If the removal vans arrive, packing boxes, the car is packed up with the dog and family heirlooms then you might just think it’s more than a holiday and question why they need all their belongings for a holiday.
Putin clearly wants concessions but ultimately he isn’t really going to get enough now which leaves him in a pickle at home.
Remember the cost of keeping this size force in place is not cheap - he will know that ultimately the USSR “lost” the Cold War was because they couldn’t keep up the spending…… he will at some stage need to piss or get off the pot.
As you say, we shall see.
Interesting variety of headlines. Mirror trying to break the prospect of Labour standing against Corbyn gently. JC not really getting the nuances - he is not a Lab MP.
“It’s the sort of thing I'd talk to my local Tory association about” one said, which I think is moderate Tory for: "shit will hit the fan"
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/fpn-boris-johnson-leadership-crisis-conservative-party
Blair never expelled Corbyn from Labour when he was leader however and Cameron never expelled the likes of Bill Cash from the Tories either when he was leader. Both won. So removing your ideological opponents from the party has a mixed record and Starmer needs to be careful what he does with Corbyn
Were Russia to invade, incorporate a slice of Ukraine into Russia, and install a puppet in Kyiv, that would be a win for China too. It would make an invasion of Taiwan seem like a more realistic prospect.
And if the West then refused to buy Russian gas, China would be one of the few buyers for a distressed seller. That would be an opportunity to make Russia dependent on China.
Leave Putin in play. There are far, far, worse evils that we need to deal with.
I'm advocating letting a state determine its own destiny. You're arguing for the brute next door to dictate to a separate country what it should do.
The ‘concessions’ Putin is seeking simply can’t be granted through diplomatic means, as he’s effectively demanding the Ukraine becomes a Russian protectorate.
I don’t see how you equate reporting of the massive military preparations on the Ukraine border with Iraq. Whether or not Putin pulls the trigger is basically down to predicting his whim; pointing out that he’s put himself in a position to do so at a moment’s notice is neither wrong nor irresponsible.
And this isn’t about a disgraced former commander in any event.
If you read enough of the reviews, in fact, you start to think that the scariest word in the title was neither “Chainsaw” nor “Massacre” but “Texas.”
https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/they-came-they-sawed/
One creates chaos, the other prevents it.
We should do all we can to defend democracy in the world. That includes standing by Ukraine.
I never thought Keir would withhold the whip like this but it has been a clever move which infuriates his internal opponents. Corbyn might apologise but its an area where his much vaunted honesty fails him as his actions repeatedly demonstrate he wouldn't mean it - I believe after preparing and making his statement that got him suspended he tried a non apology as if he had not meant what he clearly said.
If he cannot be Labour I think he'd retire. He has party membership, still has support and fans, hed probably prefer it to parliament if he tries it. Rallies and conferences all the time.
* Jeremy represents a long-standing strand of the party, and not in an especially extreme way - as leader, he made no effort to purge opponents and was notoriously reluctant to criticise individual Tories - "It's not about the individual, it's about the system". He isn't especially warm, but he's decent to others and uber-tolerant of other people - I've heard him acknowledge the strengths of people as diverse as Ian Paisley, IDS and Tony Blair.
* The CLP is by no means solidly supportive - it's full of Guardian readers with a wide range of strong opinions, the most affably talkative CLP I've ever encountered: a fun time for a typical member is an evening in the pub debating Universal Minimum Wage or the best policy towards the Colombian drugs trade. Nonetheless he does have a majority there.
* Jeremy is liked by most local voters, including Tories - he's been helping them individually for decades with the same kind of stubborn refusal to give up that frustrates even allies. His surgeries go on forever - he will patiently listen to everyone until they've finished, then knock himself out trying to sort out their problems. I also think some voters feel an element of distaste for national politics and will rally round him because they enjoy a sturdy individual standing up to a national party.
* Islington N would be Labour anyway, but it's significant that the Greens are the main local opposition (the council is 47 Lab, 1 Green, and they're second in most places).
* He'd like to be back in the PLP, as a member for 50+ years, but I doubt if he really cares that much. He won't set up his own party or join another, but could well stand as an independent. He'll have no shortage of helpers and his Labour opponent will struggle to get many. If the Greens decide not to oppose him, I think he'll win.
* Starmer clearly wants to make an example of him, so I can't see him being the Labour candidate. I suspect that if the outcome is that he's elected as a lone independent left-wing voice, it'll actually suit everyone quite well.
He so devastated Labour's brand with his conflating Israeli aggression in the West Bank with Jewish Labour MPs. He sympathised with Russian assassins in Salisbury because he forgot that his beloved Soviet Union had expired a quarter of a century earlier. In short the man is a fool. He was the flag waver for a discredited Labour Party no-one wanted to vote for unless they sold copies of The Socialist Worker. He has to go, and never return.
I believe Kinnock was right to expell Degsy and Nellist, although it was a different moment. It was the era of Mrs T. and the Miners' Strike. Who on the left didn't want a Soviet enclave in Liverpool and Coventry in 1984? I attended meetings of Camden Labour Party at the time, they certainly did!
So you are not pro Putin but your point is absolutely pro Putin
A token labour candidate and ignoring the members helping Jeremy (running as an independent candidate) one last time seems the best approach if Jeremy wishes to fight the next election.
There are reasons why a Tory majority is still the front runner with the bookies.
BTW At the end of the next parliament Corbyn would be 80.
Everyone is supposed to just presume the threat is phoney and not worry about reacting at all?
In the boy who cried wolf the villagers should have responded to every cry, even though it was annoying to get false ones, because of the risks to them if it ever were true.
Now is his time to shine as the great Churchillian statesman. Expect more photo opportunities in fast jets.
Corbyn would almost certainly stand as an independent in his old seat of Islington North if expelled from Labour but he might actually win it
Russian media "News Front" was conveniently on the site of shelling of Vasylivka water pumping station and published a video of hits last night
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494948705044152325?s=20&t=hMyzF-8vAuu522Utlao_mg
*zero - ed.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/feb/17/andrew-neil-launches-libel-claim-against-jennifer-arcuri-after-epstein-tweet
Will she be protected by California's "Libel Tourism Protection Act". (Where she is reported to be living now).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libel_tourism#:~:text=The Act provides that California,the press as provided by
Time to do Saturday real life.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1494960734819819524