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As long as MPs rate VI ahead of Approval ratings the PM is safe – politicalbetting.com

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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    edited February 2022

    nico679 said:

    If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.

    This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .

    Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
    None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
    I do not think you can rationalise Putin who is a very real threat to peace in Europe
    On the contrary, love or loathe him, his actions are usually rational from his own perspective. At least up until now. And it's a bit of a stretch to imagine he's gone completely doolally in the past couple of years. We've seen no public displays of it at least.
    Yes, that's what's so peculiar - he's a nationalist authoritarian reactionary, but not obviously nuts like Bolsanaro or Lukashenko - he seems quite rational and sober. So you'd expect his policies to be driven by cold self-interest, or possibly national interest. But...?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    .

    nico679 said:

    If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.

    This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .

    Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
    None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
    None of this makes sense from a rational standpoint.
    A desire to rebuild the Russian empire isn’t particularly rational, but it is a real thing.
    Killing tens of thousands by launching a war of aggression isn’t rational either. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    kle4 said:

    I forget how big Ukraine is sometimes. With 41 million people it's a big beast by weight of population.

    Their population peaked at 52.2 million in 1993, so a pretty hefty drop of 20% since then in just 29 years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973
    Leon said:

    Happening

    BNO News
    @BNONews
    ·
    14m
    Satellite images show Russian helicopter unit, tanks, armored personnel carriers and support equipment has arrived at Millerovo Airfield, minutes from the border with Ukraine - Reuters

    Less than 12 miles as the crow flies from the border.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660

    nico679 said:

    If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.

    This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .

    Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
    None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
    I do not think you can rationalise Putin who is a very real threat to peace in Europe
    On the contrary, love or loathe him, his actions are usually rational from his own perspective. At least up until now. And it's a bit of a stretch to imagine he's gone completely doolally in the past couple of years. We've seen no public displays of it at least.
    Yes, that's what's so peculiar - he's a nationalist authoritarian reactionary, but not obviously nuts like Bolanaro or Lukashenko - he seems quite rational and sober. So you'd expect his policies to be driven by cold self-interest, or possibly national interest. But...?
    After a while I think powerful people just start to believe their own hype, and that’s when it all goes wrong. Even the cleverest seem to succumb eventually.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Cyclefree said:

    I have just watched the documentary "Berlin 1945" on iPlayer - in 3 parts. No narration other than at the very start and end. It is film from the time and actors reading extracts from the diaries of Berliners and Americans, Russians and others. It covers the period from April 1945 to the end of the year.

    Quietly moving. The last 5 minutes had me weeping. Do watch if you can.

    Thanks for the recommendation.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660
    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.

    This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .

    Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
    None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
    I do not think you can rationalise Putin who is a very real threat to peace in Europe
    On the contrary, love or loathe him, his actions are usually rational from his own perspective. At least up until now. And it's a bit of a stretch to imagine he's gone completely doolally in the past couple of years. We've seen no public displays of it at least.
    Yes, that's what's so peculiar - he's a nationalist authoritarian reactionary, but not obviously nuts like Bolanaro or Lukashenko - he seems quite rational and sober. So you'd expect his policies to be driven by cold self-interest, or possibly national interest. But...?
    After a while I think powerful people just start to believe their own hype, and that’s when it all goes wrong. Even the cleverest seem to succumb eventually.
    Though there is a tiny bit of me wondering if he’s Logan Roy and we’re about to find out he’s got our mum to sign away the voting rights.
  • TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.

    This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .

    Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
    None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
    I do not think you can rationalise Putin who is a very real threat to peace in Europe
    On the contrary, love or loathe him, his actions are usually rational from his own perspective. At least up until now. And it's a bit of a stretch to imagine he's gone completely doolally in the past couple of years. We've seen no public displays of it at least.
    Yes, that's what's so peculiar - he's a nationalist authoritarian reactionary, but not obviously nuts like Bolanaro or Lukashenko - he seems quite rational and sober. So you'd expect his policies to be driven by cold self-interest, or possibly national interest. But...?
    After a while I think powerful people just start to believe their own hype, and that’s when it all goes wrong. Even the cleverest seem to succumb eventually.
    Plus people think they can get away with it if nobody is willing to say no. Its why democracy always beats autocracy in the end.

    Ironically domestically if Boris does survive the next few months then he could be more measured and sensible going forwards after the scare of being challenged and put on notice than he was when he was trying to excuse Owen Paterson because he thought he could get away with it.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,679
    There's rumours that Putin has been isolated during covid and he's very afraid of catching it. Add that to his age, time in office and the paranoia that must go with leading such an autocratic state - it could be a potent cocktail.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    edited February 2022
    Ukraine had a larger population than England in 1993: 52 million vs 48 million. Today the figures are 41 million and 58 million.
  • Ask any sensible SNP supporter on PB (i.e. Alistair, Carnyx, TUD etc...) what they think about the prospect of a Tory-SNP deal. They know it would be a fucking disaster for the pro-independence movement.

    Likely quite true.

    But note that Conservative parties in British mold are noted for self-serving pragmatism.

    For example, during first century of confederation, the basic glue of Canadian Conservatism was working partnership, ultramontane French Catholics in Quebec + ultra-Protestant Orangemen in Ontario.

    Politics do make strange bedfellows. Just ask Lynne Cheney!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    nico679 said:

    If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.

    This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .

    Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
    None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
    At a guess, Putin has decided that vassalizing Ukraine and winning plaudits at home as the liberator of oppressed Russians is more important to him than his economic relationship with the West. That, and the various theories about his desperation to keep Ukraine out of both NATO and the EU for strategic reasons are correct.

    And so, a new iron curtain descends across Europe from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea - Finland, regardless of whether it chooses to accede to NATO, is closely aligned with the West - and Russia takes the economic pain until it can build the necessary infrastructure to reorient its energy exports to China.

    Certainly the idea that Russia wants to attempt to install a friendly regime to toe the line in Kyiv is bolstered both by the recent statements of Western leaders and intelligence agencies, and their diplomatic postures. British and American delegations have moved to Lviv rather than fully evacuate the country for a reason. It would appear they expect Putin to take the capital and thereafter lend his new puppet Russian internal security forces to round up dissidents and suppress dissent, rather than attempt a direct military conquest of the whole country. Best case scenario: the Ukrainian military collapses and the puppet assumes full control. Worst case scenario: it regroups in the West and the country collapses into a civil war, with pro-Russian and pro-Western factions knocking seven bells out of each other for years.

    In any event, the threat of a pro-Western Ukraine succeeding as a peaceful liberal democracy, and therefore showing Russia up as a basket case, is removed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Andy_JS said:

    Ukraine had a larger population than England in 1993: 52 million vs 48 million. Today the figures are 41 million and 58 million.

    Congratulations to Ukraine for doing their bit to combat global overpopulation.
  • kle4 said:

    I don't know about Putin's mental state or political nous, but as I've noted before he's definitely getting lazier. Making himself PM for 4 years because of rules around consecutive terms was relatively creative as autocracies go, but now he's just gone for the 'term limits are reset because of constitutional reforms' move, which is just lame.

    Yes, a decade ago Putin was wrastling with bears. These days believe he's down to grappling with gophers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Police are advising against all travel to and from Basildon. Nothing to do with the storm - it’s just shit there.
  • This is great photograph:


  • Ask any sensible SNP supporter on PB (i.e. Alistair, Carnyx, TUD etc...) what they think about the prospect of a Tory-SNP deal. They know it would be a fucking disaster for the pro-independence movement.

    Thanks :)
    Yes, we live in strange times but I just can't see them becoming that strange. If the SNP can stay consistent for decades about the comparatively less compromising temptation of sending representatives to the HoL, they're not going to fuck it up by dealing with the cesspit of BJ and the current Tory party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Captain Tom charity tried to make his daughter CEO on a 6 figure salary before the watchdog blocked the move

    https://twitter.com/murphy_simon/status/1494716804308029450?s=20&t=-MW_xhcfiXld9GwgzBOgug
  • This is great photograph:


    Looks like The Thaw has already gotten started?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BNO News
    @BNONews
    ·
    1m
    U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

    He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

    Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

    Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
    We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar

    He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
    Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
    I think that's right: he marches troops into an area they already - de facto - control. Announce that the car bombings and other stuff has been dealt with and the areas secured safe for Russians.

    Maybe send some refugees West, and organise a quick poll (with troops ensuring the right result is reached)

    Declare victory.

    But crucially, avoid getting into a firefight.

  • max seddon

    @maxseddon
    Just your average Friday night on a Ukrainian political talk show, where life is continuing as normal


    Glenn Kates @gkates

    Small update: Yuriy Butusov punched out Nestor Shufrych and got him in a headlock for a minute.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1494803744193757184

    ===

    Love the way the sign language person kept signing. Ending up with making a throat slit move across her neck.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    It’s worth recalling how Putin came to power. The idea that he shares our concept of what is societally desirable - or even what constitutes stability - is illusory.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/putins-real-long-game-214589/
    … To understand the shift underway in the world, and to stop being outmaneuvered, we first need to see the Russian state for what it really is. Twenty-five years ago, the Soviet Union collapsed. This freed the Russian security state from its last constraints. In 1991, there were around 800,000 official KGB agents in Russia. They spent a decade reorganizing themselves into the newly-minted FSB, expanding and absorbing other instruments of power, including criminal networks, other security services, economic interests, and parts of the political elite. They rejected the liberal, democratic Russia that President Boris Yeltsin was trying to build.

    Following the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings that the FSB almost certainly planned, former FSB director Vladimir Putin was installed as President. We should not ignore the significance of these events. An internal operation planned by the security services killed hundreds of Russian citizens. It was used as the pretext to re-launch a bloody, devastating internal war led by emergent strongman Putin. Tens of thousands of Chechen civilians and fighters and Russian conscripts died. The narrative was controlled to make the enemy clear and Putin victorious. This information environment forced a specific political objective: Yeltsin resigned and handed power to Putin on New Year’s Eve 1999…


    The article is from five years ago, but it reads just as well in today’s context.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576


    max seddon

    @maxseddon
    Just your average Friday night on a Ukrainian political talk show, where life is continuing as normal


    Glenn Kates @gkates

    Small update: Yuriy Butusov punched out Nestor Shufrych and got him in a headlock for a minute.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1494803744193757184

    ===

    Love the way the sign language person kept signing. Ending up with making a throat slit move across her neck.

    Isnt Taiwan also famous for political punch ups? Something about a robust atmosphere when your nation has a permanent existential threat perhaps.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    @michaeldweiss
    The strategy of aggressively declassifying and leaking so much of the intel the US had on this was rooted in deterring a war. If one comes to pass, it won't have worked because Putin fundamentally didn't care if we knew what he was up to. This gambit will be studied for years.

    One Ukrainian official told me earlier today, "the Americans started this 'drama' of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And now Putin is going to show us he's much better than the West at drama production."


    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1494800291040051206

    Even if doesn't work at preventing a war, it has allowed the West to get massively more aid to the Ukraine than would otherwise have been the case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    @michaeldweiss
    The strategy of aggressively declassifying and leaking so much of the intel the US had on this was rooted in deterring a war. If one comes to pass, it won't have worked because Putin fundamentally didn't care if we knew what he was up to. This gambit will be studied for years.

    One Ukrainian official told me earlier today, "the Americans started this 'drama' of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And now Putin is going to show us he's much better than the West at drama production."


    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1494800291040051206

    Even if doesn't work at preventing a war, it has allowed the West to get massively more aid to the Ukraine than would otherwise have been the case.
    Yes, by not pretending to buy it for sake of appearing 'reasonable' they had space to try something at least even if it cannot counter a determined invader.
  • This is great photograph:


    Looks like The Thaw has already gotten started?
    Vlad's tanks aint going anywhere.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Andy_JS said:

    Ukraine had a larger population than England in 1993: 52 million vs 48 million. Today the figures are 41 million and 58 million.

    Although they did lose the Crimea, which knocked off about 2.5 million people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BNO News
    @BNONews
    ·
    1m
    U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

    He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

    Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

    Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
    We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar

    He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
    Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
    I think that's right: he marches troops into an area they already - de facto - control. Announce that the car bombings and other stuff has been dealt with and the areas secured safe for Russians.

    Maybe send some refugees West, and organise a quick poll (with troops ensuring the right result is reached)

    Declare victory.

    But crucially, avoid getting into a firefight.
    It’s entirely possible - and would be something of a relief.
    He might even do this a few times so he can carry on accusing our intelligence services of crying wolf.
    See if political consensus in Ukraine starts to weaken under the pressure of economic destabilisation, etc.

    A lot of options are open to him if Russia can bear the expense of keeping 100k plus troops hanging around for a few months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216

    This is great photograph:


    Looks like The Thaw has already gotten started?
    Vlad's tanks aint going anywhere.
    “Russian tanks do not fear mud”, according to their propaganda.
    (Though they probably still get stuck.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973
    Has the advice from NPHET, the Irish advisory body for their government, about ending PCR testing and mask-wearing been mentioned? A lot of nonsense is being written and said about how reckless ending testing in England would be, but it's not far out of line with what is being recommended in Ireland.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2022/0218/1281557-mask-rules/
  • Has the advice from NPHET, the Irish advisory body for their government, about ending PCR testing and mask-wearing been mentioned? A lot of nonsense is being written and said about how reckless ending testing in England would be, but it's not far out of line with what is being recommended in Ireland.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2022/0218/1281557-mask-rules/

    It's like the Blackadder quote on espionage.

    British lifting of restrictions: Crazy, reckless irresponsible experiment.
    European lifting of restrictions: Sensible, rational steps.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973

    This is great photograph:


    Looks like The Thaw has already gotten started?
    Ternopil, in the West of Ukraine, where my Grandma was born, is forecast to reach 9C today (Saturday). Kyiv is forecast to remain above freezing until Wednesday night, Kharkiv in the east, the same. Pretty mild for the time of year.
  • NEW: U.S. says kicking Russia out of SWIFT financial messaging system will "probably not" be in any package of sanctions levelled if Russia invades Ukraine. Washington hints it would be unlikely to get EU support and would have too many "spillover effects"

    https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1494771937519804416
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    NEW: U.S. says kicking Russia out of SWIFT financial messaging system will "probably not" be in any package of sanctions levelled if Russia invades Ukraine. Washington hints it would be unlikely to get EU support and would have too many "spillover effects"

    https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1494771937519804416

    It is true that a large number of international (including US banks) would be impacted by Russian banks, oil companies, etc., not being able to fulfil their obligations.

    But that's also kinda the point of sanctions.
  • Globle makes a nice change from wordle... https://globle-game.com/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,304
    edited February 2022
    Nigelb said:

    This is great photograph:


    Looks like The Thaw has already gotten started?
    Vlad's tanks aint going anywhere.
    “Russian tanks do not fear mud”, according to their propaganda.
    (Though they probably still get stuck.)
    [ deleted for security considerations]
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,572
    rcs1000 said:

    NEW: U.S. says kicking Russia out of SWIFT financial messaging system will "probably not" be in any package of sanctions levelled if Russia invades Ukraine. Washington hints it would be unlikely to get EU support and would have too many "spillover effects"

    https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1494771937519804416

    It is true that a large number of international (including US banks) would be impacted by Russian banks, oil companies, etc., not being able to fulfil their obligations.

    But that's also kinda the point of sanctions.
    That seems potentially an overlarge claim, given that Russian GDP is somewhere between that of Spain and Italy in USD terms. ie not much above 1% of global GDP.

    Do we have a list, or some data?

  • Ah - at last I understand what VI is! I had been wondering what a Roman 6 had to do with politics!
This discussion has been closed.