Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
Thankfully every other past or present Tory member here seems to respect democracy more than you do, so we can dismiss your views as fairly eccentric and weird.
I think the letters that are in, possibly 40-45, are not coming out again for the sake of convenient timing, so one more sizeable, slightly different, shake of events could still tip it, Ukraine or no. But that is not a given.
I still think if MPs are forced to stare into the untempered schism of another year of Boris, that the spread between his messages of support and actual VONC support could well exceed Heath's, and letter hesitant MPs needn't worry too much about the VONC failing. And even if he does lock in another year (as opposed to MPs waiting for that full year), the likely mood in 12 months time will have soured further.
No thanks, not behind Boris. The guy is an arse and a liability. At a time like this we need a serious PM, Boris will undoubtedly make things worse.
Although with one or two exceptions, we are in fact United in thinking Johnson is a tosser who needs to be removed and replaced by somebody honest, sane, coherent and reasonably intelligent.
And I agree but that is not happening while this immediate threat is hanging over Europe
On the contrary, @MaxPB is right it makes it much more urgent to get rid of him. Just as the fall of Norway made it imperative to get rid of Chamberlain. You need serious politicians for these times, not buffoons and serial failures.
I have a great feeling of bitterness when being told to 'come together' or 'unite' behind a bad leader. Boris definetly shouldn't be allowed to use the Ukraine situation to dodge partygate.
No thanks, not behind Boris. The guy is an arse and a liability. At a time like this we need a serious PM, Boris will undoubtedly make things worse.
Although with one or two exceptions, we are in fact United in thinking Johnson is a tosser who needs to be removed and replaced by somebody honest, sane, coherent and reasonably intelligent.
And I agree but that is not happening while this immediate threat is hanging over Europe
On the contrary, @MaxPB is right it makes it much more urgent to get rid of him. Just as the fall of Norway made it imperative to get rid of Chamberlain. You need serious politicians for these times, not buffoons and serial failures.
I have a great feeling of bitterness when being told to 'come together' or 'unite' behind a bad leader. Boris definetly shouldn't be allowed to use the Ukraine situation to dodge partygate.
I appeal to my friends - and I have friends in this House...
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
I agree. Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.
If the Tories end up on 315 seats and with a clear majority in England then a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP rainbow coalition isn't going to be viable as much as people want to make it work.
A second IndyRef and Tories continuing in Downing Street is entirely viable. Especially since the stupid 'generation' line is really wearing thin now, by the end of the next Parliament (2029) it will have been 15 years since the last referendum. That's practically a generation.
There's no need for the SNP to give confidence and supply in that scenario, just abstain on English matters while the Tories help facilitate the SNP getting their second vote on Scottish matters.
Yup and kick it into the back end of the parliament, say 2028 and it's starting to look like 2014 was a pretty long time ago as well, certainly a generation in some parts of Glasgow.
That HYFUD can't see he's being played like a fiddle by Boris is quite sad. Boris has no principles, no honour and he will betray anyone and the nation in order to further his own agenda of staying on as PM.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
That's the thing with politics, be it regular kind or the warring kind - if you go high risk it's perfectly possible things spiral out of control well beyond what you intended.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
I agree. Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.
If the Tories end up on 315 seats and with a clear majority in England then a Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP rainbow coalition isn't going to be viable as much as people want to make it work.
A second IndyRef and Tories continuing in Downing Street is entirely viable. Especially since the stupid 'generation' line is really wearing thin now, by the end of the next Parliament (2029) it will have been 15 years since the last referendum. That's practically a generation.
There's no need for the SNP to give confidence and supply in that scenario, just abstain on English matters while the Tories help facilitate the SNP getting their second vote on Scottish matters.
Yup and kick it into the back end of the parliament, say 2028 and it's starting to look like 2014 was a pretty long time ago as well, certainly a generation in some parts of Glasgow.
That HYFUD can't see he's being played like a fiddle by Boris is quite sad. Boris has no principles, no honour and he will betray anyone and the nation in order to further his own agenda of staying on as PM.
Its almost worth wanting that to come to pass, in order to see HYUFD combust/justify IndyRef 2 take your pick.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.
I would demand a VONC if he even considered that
And your demand would mean even less than Tissue Price demanding one a month ago.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.
I would demand a VONC if he even considered that
And if he won such a vote?
419 miles for the tanks to cover from Edinburgh to London...
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
The big question is does he just go for Donetsk and Luhansk (sp?) or does he go for the entire country and seize Kiev and the government and all opposition too.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
More likely he attacks the Donbass and the Ukrainian army cannot pile in because they need to protect Kiev. I only see a full invasion happening if Putin really has gone mad.
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
Salisbury could have led to World War III. It was an act of war.
It didn't because Theresa May isn't stupid.
But it does show that Putin's judgement is very seriously out of kilter with safety.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
Salisbury could have led to World War III. It was an act of war.
It didn't because Theresa May isn't stupid.
But it does show that Putin's judgement is very seriously out of kilter with safety.
Or its because he knows that he can engage in acts of war and the West won't respond in kind.
If you know your opposition has no backbone, and you have no principles, why play it safe?
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
My vacuous guess is that he will sit it out. Russians play the longer chess game.
Although the cost of supplying a sitting army of maybe 200k strength at war-readiness position must be eye watering.
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
Salisbury could have led to World War III. It was an act of war.
It didn't because Theresa May isn't stupid.
But it does show that Putin's judgement is very seriously out of kilter with safety.
No it wouldn't, there is a difference between Russian intelligence services poisoning a dissident and invasion of the largest country in Eastern Europe in the EU and NATO
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
You're utterly delusional.
If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.
Biden has been a much better President than I expected.
Calm and measured.
If he pulls this off then I think we can quietly park the Afghan f-up onto one side. At least as far as POTUS re-election is concerned. If you are an Afghan you may have a different opinion.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
I’d like to see him try. I mean I REALLY would like to see him try.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
So all these letters many of them are sending their constituents, sharing their shock and outrage, are just more lies, putting the MPs down on the same level of immorality as the leader?
Biden has been a much better President than I expected.
Calm and measured.
If he pulls this off then I think we can quietly park the Afghan f-up onto one side. At least as far as POTUS re-election is concerned. If you are an Afghan you may have a different opinion.
The problem is nobody cared about Afghanistan in the end. It had been twenty years and enough is enough.
A civilised, democratic European nation getting invaded by Russia . . . that's altogether different to uncivilised barbarians blowing each other up in the desert after twenty years of us failing to contain them.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
You're utterly delusional.
If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.
And to be honest indyref2 is winnable for the union anyway
@michaeldweiss The strategy of aggressively declassifying and leaking so much of the intel the US had on this was rooted in deterring a war. If one comes to pass, it won't have worked because Putin fundamentally didn't care if we knew what he was up to. This gambit will be studied for years.
One Ukrainian official told me earlier today, "the Americans started this 'drama' of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And now Putin is going to show us he's much better than the West at drama production."
Been awhile since Europe has had a good old fashioned territory grab war. I suppose the Armenian-Azerbaijan war a couple years ago counts, right on the periphery.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
And, to be fair, the despising is pretty mutual.
Now, Indyref 2 is a heck of a prize, if Johnson can deliver it. And it is the sort of mad gesture Boris might make if sufficiently cornered.
But propping up a Tory government? It would be a brave move by the SNP.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
You're utterly delusional.
If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.
Bullshit. The SNP would vote down almost the entire Tory legislative platform every week anyway, they don't agree with the Tories on anything.
Even Starmer Labour agrees more with the Tories on most issues than the SNP does. A Starmer Labour and Tory grand coalition might be possible to sideline the SNP and indyref2 if Starmer was willing, that would also keep Tory Ministers in government. A Tory SNP deal is impossible
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
The big question is does he just go for Donetsk and Luhansk (sp?) or does he go for the entire country and seize Kiev and the government and all opposition too.
Who knows. Biden is saying Kiev and all out-attack, as are multiple American and AUKUS sources. But they are playing mind-games as well
It seems highly unlikely at this stage, that Putin will do NOTHING. Why bother with these elaborate False Flag attacks, evacuating 700,000 people, blowing up pipelines, if you only intend to threaten and gesture, and not do anything in reality?
Putin is a DO-ER. A man of action. That's his whole persona, elaborately constructed over many years. Doing *nothing* would be a major reverse, for him, now
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
Although you have to wonder why he would need this many troops to do that.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
You're utterly delusional.
If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.
And to be honest indyref2 is winnable for the union anyway
Max has timescaled it all logically.
Make it 2028 for IndyRef2 and both the SNP and the Tories have a reason not to pull the plug on each other. The Tories know if they do, they're heading for the Opposition benches, and the SNP won't want to rock the boat before the referendum.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
You're utterly delusional.
If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.
And to be honest indyref2 is winnable for the union anyway
Though any PM who granted it and lost it would have to resign the next day, as both Boris and Starmer would also be aware
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
So all these letters many of them are sending their constituents, sharing their shock and outrage, are just more lies, putting the MPs down on the same level of immorality as the leader?
The letter writers are far more in tune with the conservative party then @HYUFD blind loyalty
My concern is that this immediate crisis will defer the day the mps act, but they will in due course
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
Thankfully every other past or present Tory member here seems to respect democracy more than you do, so we can dismiss your views as fairly eccentric and weird.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
And, to be fair, the despising is pretty mutual.
Now, Indyref 2 is a heck of a prize, if Johnson can deliver it. And it is the sort of mad gesture Boris might make if sufficiently cornered.
But propping up a Tory government? It would be a brave move by the SNP.
Brave but smart. Win independence and who cares that they supped with the devil in order to get it, an independent Scotland won't have a Tory PM anyway.
Its like the prisoners dilemma, the game theory outcome is for everyone to cheat on what they'd usually claim and make the deal.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
And, to be fair, the despising is pretty mutual.
Now, Indyref 2 is a heck of a prize, if Johnson can deliver it. And it is the sort of mad gesture Boris might make if sufficiently cornered.
But propping up a Tory government? It would be a brave move by the SNP.
Not really, for people who want an independent Scotland they won't care what happens in the rest of the UK. After the independence vote the English Tories will be gone forever in their view and Westminster won't matter.
It only becomes dangerous for them if they contrive to lose the referendum. That feels unlikely in scenario of 18 years of Tory government and 9 years of Boris as PM.
@michaeldweiss The strategy of aggressively declassifying and leaking so much of the intel the US had on this was rooted in deterring a war. If one comes to pass, it won't have worked because Putin fundamentally didn't care if we knew what he was up to. This gambit will be studied for years.
One Ukrainian official told me earlier today, "the Americans started this 'drama' of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And now Putin is going to show us he's much better than the West at drama production."
I cannot even tell what point that official is trying to make. If Putin does invade then it was real, thus meaning the reaction of the Americans was not drama.
As for Putin not caring if others know what he is up to, sure, the flimsiness of denials and evasions always made that clear. But it remains interesting that he still feels he needs pretexts, however vestigial.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.
I would demand a VONC if he even considered that
Its odd. You're happy to give away NI but practically psychotic when it comes to Scotland.
"Ever closer union" was picturesque rhetoric, behind which "federalism by stealth" was the actual policy. It didn't need to be that way, but those who pushed for it knew exactly what they were doing (and still are). It has been a political disaster that will take decades to unravel and the euro-federalists are as much to blame as the brexiteers.
The problem was our membership was always half-hearted. We could just about go along with a notion of free trade though we sometimes baulked at that in terms of the impact on our traditional trading links with the Commonwealth.
Over 40 years, we never came close to accepting the EEC or the EU and in the end the illogicality of our membership became too much for all sides. We protested over the finances even though we were and are one of the world's most powerful economies. We were happy to take European money to improve the infrastructure of our poorer peripheries but when the even poorer nations of first southern and then eastern Europe joined, it seemed we (and the Germans) were always left to pay the bill.
We had two choices - either embrace the European ideal fully - Euro, Schengen etc or leave. Our "neither owt nor nowt" membership frustrated everyone and I suspect it's beneficial for all we go our separate ways for now.
My iPhone is now desperately trying to autocorrect Brexiteer (the most popular version by an order of magnitude, according to Google) to Brexiter, the preferred form for Remoaners, as the latter seems less romantic and flattering. I believe the Guardian and FT have both banned "Brexiteer" for that reason
Is Apple run by a europhile? Has Clegg extended his tentacles from Facebook?
The resentments you nurture seem increasingly esoteric, and strangely trivial.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
So all these letters many of them are sending their constituents, sharing their shock and outrage, are just more lies, putting the MPs down on the same level of immorality as the leader?
If they don't act on it then their shock and outrage is phony.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
Your do realise they may shoot you if you tried, so my recommendation is don't.
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime
Bollocks. The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.
And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
Biden has been a much better President than I expected.
Calm and measured.
If he pulls this off then I think we can quietly park the Afghan f-up onto one side. At least as far as POTUS re-election is concerned. If you are an Afghan you may have a different opinion.
Personally VERY doubtful that either Afghanistan or Ukraine will be factors of any significance in 2024 presidential election. Certainly WAY to early to tell at this juncture.
What Biden's current visibility on world stage is doing (methinks) is helping to restore his standing with US voters, at a time when he and (especially) his party needs for him to be getting out of the public opinion dog house.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
All seems a bit unnecessary, but making it extra clear those areas are as gone as Crimea even if they are not formally absorbed into mother Russia, but have Russian troops and officials there to 'protect' it, seems both achievable and the sort of thing no one outside Ukraine will kick up more than words about.
@michaeldweiss The strategy of aggressively declassifying and leaking so much of the intel the US had on this was rooted in deterring a war. If one comes to pass, it won't have worked because Putin fundamentally didn't care if we knew what he was up to. This gambit will be studied for years.
One Ukrainian official told me earlier today, "the Americans started this 'drama' of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And now Putin is going to show us he's much better than the West at drama production."
I cannot even tell what point that official is trying to make. If Putin does invade then it was real, thus meaning the reaction of the Americans was not drama.
As for Putin not caring if others know what he is up to, sure, the flimsiness of denials and evasions always made that clear. But it remains interesting that he still feels he needs pretexts, however vestigial.
I think the implication is that Putin will do something even more 'shock and awe'-y than the Americans have been predicting.
BNO News @BNONews · 14m Satellite images show Russian helicopter unit, tanks, armored personnel carriers and support equipment has arrived at Millerovo Airfield, minutes from the border with Ukraine - Reuters
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
So all these letters many of them are sending their constituents, sharing their shock and outrage, are just more lies, putting the MPs down on the same level of immorality as the leader?
The letter writers are far more in tune with the conservative party then @HYUFD blind loyalty
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
Not necessarily, people thought the Tories would ruthlessly get rid of Theresa May after she lost the majority, yet they didn't. This new breed of Tory MP has lost its cunning and ruthlessness. The deal would be done and they'd release carefully worded statements of disagreement in principle but nothing that actually commits them to giving up the whip.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.
I would demand a VONC if he even considered that
Its odd. You're happy to give away NI but practically psychotic when it comes to Scotland.
No I am not, I also want the government to now invoke Article 16 and remove the Irish Sea border
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime
Bollocks. The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.
And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.
Able Archer came incredibly close, although we didn’t realise it at the time.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
Not necessarily, people thought the Tories would ruthlessly get rid of Theresa May after she lost the majority, yet they didn't. This new breed of Tory MP has lost its cunning and ruthlessness. The deal would be done and they'd release carefully worded statements of disagreement in principle but nothing that actually commits them to giving up the whip.
Plus Theresa May contrived to lose the majority after being 25 points ahead in the polls.
If Boris manages to win 315 seats, about 60-80 seats more than Labour, from having been 10+ points behind in the polls, after 14 years of Tory-led government then that would be much more impressive than May getting around that when she went to the polls early because she had a 25 point lead.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
On current polling it is more likely Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories in a hung parliament than the other way round anyway
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.
So all these letters many of them are sending their constituents, sharing their shock and outrage, are just more lies, putting the MPs down on the same level of immorality as the leader?
The letter writers are far more in tune with the conservative party then @HYUFD blind loyalty
Are they? I cannot say I agree.
I believe they are and next week would have been perilous for Boris having returned his questionnaire had it not been for this Ukraine crisis
If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
On current polling it is more likely Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories in a hung parliament than the other way round anyway
If Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories this is all moot and Labour are in Downing Street.
The scenario being discussed is the Tories falling just short, eg 315 seats. In that scenario, Labour would be about 80 behind.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
No you wouldn’t
Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.
I would demand a VONC if he even considered that
Its odd. You're happy to give away NI but practically psychotic when it comes to Scotland.
UK without Northern Ireland is still Great Britain. Whereas without Scotland is truly Little England.
Quite a substantial country of world renown, actually, but with galactic-class inferiority complex.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
On current polling it is more likely Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories in a hung parliament than the other way round anyway
If Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories this is all moot and Labour are in Downing Street.
The scenario being discussed is the Tories falling just short, eg 315 seats. In that scenario, Labour would be about 80 behind.
If the Tories are just short on 315 seats they would of course do a deal with the DUP again not the SNP and invoke Article 16 and rip up the NIP not grant the SNP indyref2
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
If the Tories have ~80 seats more than Labour, it's 2010 redux and a rainbow coalition of all the losers isn't plausible anyway, surely?
If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
On current polling it is more likely Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories in a hung parliament than the other way round anyway
If Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories this is all moot and Labour are in Downing Street.
The scenario being discussed is the Tories falling just short, eg 315 seats. In that scenario, Labour would be about 80 behind.
If the Tories are just short on 315 seats they would of course do a deal with the DUP again not the SNP and invoke Article 16 and rip up the NIP not grant the SNP indyref2
Not if as the polls suggest the DUP lose their seats and the SNP are needed instead. If the DUP aren't sufficient, but the SNP are, then IndyRef2 is the logical price to pay.
If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
But he will also want to install a puppet regime in Kiev, that will not countenance membership of NATO or the EU
Biden is probably right. Putin will attack Kiev AND Eastern Ukraine. Seize the capital and the Russian speaking areas. Subjugate the former, annexe the latter. Job done
It is hard to see him trying to take over all of Ukraine, what's in it for him but a grinding Vietnam/Afghanistan?
He has the troops to take the capital and impose a leader he wants, meanwhile he can expand Russia along the Black Sea, formalizing the absorption of Crimea
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
On current polling it is more likely Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories in a hung parliament than the other way round anyway
If Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories this is all moot and Labour are in Downing Street.
The scenario being discussed is the Tories falling just short, eg 315 seats. In that scenario, Labour would be about 80 behind.
If the Tories are just short on 315 seats they would of course do a deal with the DUP again not the SNP and invoke Article 16 and rip up the NIP not grant the SNP indyref2
Not if as the polls suggest the DUP lose their seats and the SNP are needed instead. If the DUP aren't sufficient, but the SNP are, then IndyRef2 is the logical price to pay.
They won't, latest polls have the DUP regaining most of their votes lost to the TUV after walking out of Stormont and that would be even more so under Westminster FPTP. Most of the remaining 8 DUP seats are safe DUP and Unionist anyway
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
All seems a bit unnecessary, but making it extra clear those areas are as gone as Crimea even if they are not formally absorbed into mother Russia, but have Russian troops and officials there to 'protect' it, seems both achievable and the sort of thing no one outside Ukraine will kick up more than words about.
Yes, although it would also end the current situation which worked to his advantage as it was a stalemate that destabalised Ukraine. So he will have to find another region to lay claim to.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
All seems a bit unnecessary, but making it extra clear those areas are as gone as Crimea even if they are not formally absorbed into mother Russia, but have Russian troops and officials there to 'protect' it, seems both achievable and the sort of thing no one outside Ukraine will kick up more than words about.
I think we’re about to find out whether Putin really is a 4D chess master or the same old same old, the narcissist drunk on hubris who used to consult his officials but stopped doing so after being convinced of his own genius.
Most erstwhile geopolitical geniuses choose the latter route. That, or years of unchallenged power turn them a big potty.
I would hope, though I don’t pretend to know what’s on their mind, that faced with any realistic risk of this escalating to something a bit more direct and nukey, the Russian generals would tell Vlad to piss off.
BNO News @BNONews · 14m Satellite images show Russian helicopter unit, tanks, armored personnel carriers and support equipment has arrived at Millerovo Airfield, minutes from the border with Ukraine - Reuters
It is strangely reminiscent of those days leading up to Iraq in 2003, when we all knew there was a predetermined plan and we’re just waiting for the inevitable.
I hope Putin’s warriors get similarly bogged down and humiliated.
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime
Bollocks. The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.
And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.
More like 509 years, assuming he was 21 and of age to say anything political at all, even if it was only to express unwavering support for Henry Tudor in his resolute exit from the EU, sorry the RC Church.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
All seems a bit unnecessary, but making it extra clear those areas are as gone as Crimea even if they are not formally absorbed into mother Russia, but have Russian troops and officials there to 'protect' it, seems both achievable and the sort of thing no one outside Ukraine will kick up more than words about.
Yes, although it would also end the current situation which worked to his advantage as it was a stalemate that destabalised Ukraine. So he will have to find another region to lay claim to.
BBC Newsnight just repeated the fake news that the UK has had one of the highest rates of death from Covid-19. According to the latest data we're not in the top 30 countries on that measure.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
Not necessarily, people thought the Tories would ruthlessly get rid of Theresa May after she lost the majority, yet they didn't. This new breed of Tory MP has lost its cunning and ruthlessness. The deal would be done and they'd release carefully worded statements of disagreement in principle but nothing that actually commits them to giving up the whip.
The difference is that in 2017, May had lost the majority but she didn't have any other major political flaws.
Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?
Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?
What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?
Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper
Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy
Perilous moment for the world
Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict
You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?
I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.
He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3
We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime
Bollocks. The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.
And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.
More like 509 years, assuming he was 21 and of age to say anything political at all, even if it was only to express unwavering support for Henry Tudor in his resolute exit from the EU, sorry the RC Church.
The monks will not matter as they mostly voted Pope anyway with only a handful voting Henry. We may lose a few clergy to France but the Hugenot vote will more than make up for it.
BBC Newsnight just repeated the fake news that the UK has had one of the highest rates of death from Covid-19. According to the latest data we're not in the top 30 countries on that measure.
That's terrible.
Why is it so difficult for these journos to just check some facts? Covid Derangement Syndrome.
BNO News @BNONews · 1m U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters
He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.
All seems a bit unnecessary, but making it extra clear those areas are as gone as Crimea even if they are not formally absorbed into mother Russia, but have Russian troops and officials there to 'protect' it, seems both achievable and the sort of thing no one outside Ukraine will kick up more than words about.
I think we’re about to find out whether Putin really is a 4D chess master or the same old same old, the narcissist drunk on hubris who used to consult his officials but stopped doing so after being convinced of his own genius.
Most erstwhile geopolitical geniuses choose the latter route. That, or years of unchallenged power turn them a big potty.
I would hope, though I don’t pretend to know what’s on their mind, that faced with any realistic risk of this escalating to something a bit more direct and nukey, the Russian generals would tell Vlad to piss off.
There's a rumour that he has parked most of the Russian military on the border with Ukr all winter because he fears a military coup in Moscow.
I have just watched the documentary "Berlin 1945" on iPlayer - in 3 parts. No narration other than at the very start and end. It is film from the time and actors reading extracts from the diaries of Berliners and Americans, Russians and others. It covers the period from April 1945 to the end of the year.
Quietly moving. The last 5 minutes had me weeping. Do watch if you can.
If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
I do not think you can rationalise Putin who is a very real threat to peace in Europe
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
Not necessarily, people thought the Tories would ruthlessly get rid of Theresa May after she lost the majority, yet they didn't. This new breed of Tory MP has lost its cunning and ruthlessness. The deal would be done and they'd release carefully worded statements of disagreement in principle but nothing that actually commits them to giving up the whip.
The difference is that in 2017, May had lost the majority but she didn't have any other major political flaws.
The latter cannot be said of the incumbent...
The latter cannot be said of May either.
The thing is that in 2017 May losing a majority was a failure. In 2010 and [potentially in this scenario 2024] nearly getting a majority would be a success.
If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
I do not think you can rationalise Putin who is a very real threat to peace in Europe
On the contrary, love or loathe him, his actions are usually rational from his own perspective. At least up until now. And it's a bit of a stretch to imagine he's gone completely doolally in the past couple of years. We've seen no public displays of it at least.
Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.
Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.
I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.
What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.
If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.
Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.
Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you
With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.
Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.
I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2
But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.
In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.
In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
If the Tories have ~80 seats more than Labour, it's 2010 redux and a rainbow coalition of all the losers isn't plausible anyway, surely?
They are not losers though. All of the MPs will havve won their own seats.
A Tory-SNP deal would be an absolute gift for Labour. -Allows Labour to portray themselves as party of the union -Many pro-independence voters are pro-independence because they see it as the most anti-tory position to take. The left wing SNP vote would collapse as quickly as the left wing Lib Dem vote following the coalition if it happened. Labour landslide following GE after it happens. There's a case to be made it would be a better outcome in the next GE for Labour than a minority government if it happened.
If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine
None of this makes sense from the Russian viewpoint, does it? If he just goes for the eastern bit that he always controls, he gets zero benefit and moderate Western sanctions. If he goes for some more so as to build a land bridge to Crimea, he get modest benefit and huge Western sanctions. If he goes for the whole country, he gets a nightmare occupation of a well-developed nationalist country as well as gigantic Western sanctions. I can't see what's in it for him personally, never mind Russia, Ukraine or the wider world.
Well the threats are having a damaging effect on the Ukrainian economy which Putin might see as a good thing. I hope the resulting sanctions have been made crystal clear to him.
I have just watched the documentary "Berlin 1945" on iPlayer - in 3 parts. No narration other than at the very start and end. It is film from the time and actors reading extracts from the diaries of Berliners and Americans, Russians and others. It covers the period from April 1945 to the end of the year.
Quietly moving. The last 5 minutes had me weeping. Do watch if you can.
It's an incredible piece of work, I've watched it twice. The music/sound score, simple as it is, contributes a lot to it as well.
Comments
I still think if MPs are forced to stare into the untempered schism of another year of Boris, that the spread between his messages of support and actual VONC support could well exceed Heath's, and letter hesitant MPs needn't worry too much about the VONC failing. And even if he does lock in another year (as opposed to MPs waiting for that full year), the likely mood in 12 months time will have soured further.
The prime minister has returned his questionnaire to the Metropolitan Police about allegations of lockdown breaches in Downing St, it’s understood.
Deadline was 10pm tonight. He’s been working with private lawyers on his response.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Putin would already have swallowed Kiev and be wondering what's next if he was.
That HYFUD can't see he's being played like a fiddle by Boris is quite sad. Boris has no principles, no honour and he will betray anyone and the nation in order to further his own agenda of staying on as PM.
Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.
Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?
It may seem trite but it does feel like the abusive ex husband who continues to menace his former wife.
I would demand a VONC if he even considered that
Calm and measured.
He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess
It didn't because Theresa May isn't stupid.
But it does show that Putin's judgement is very seriously out of kilter with safety.
Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.
Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote
If you know your opposition has no backbone, and you have no principles, why play it safe?
Although the cost of supplying a sitting army of maybe 200k strength at war-readiness position must be eye watering.
If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.
A civilised, democratic European nation getting invaded by Russia . . . that's altogether different to uncivilised barbarians blowing each other up in the desert after twenty years of us failing to contain them.
The strategy of aggressively declassifying and leaking so much of the intel the US had on this was rooted in deterring a war. If one comes to pass, it won't have worked because Putin fundamentally didn't care if we knew what he was up to. This gambit will be studied for years.
One Ukrainian official told me earlier today, "the Americans started this 'drama' of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And now Putin is going to show us he's much better than the West at drama production."
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1494800291040051206
Now, Indyref 2 is a heck of a prize, if Johnson can deliver it. And it is the sort of mad gesture Boris might make if sufficiently cornered.
But propping up a Tory government? It would be a brave move by the SNP.
Even Starmer Labour agrees more with the Tories on most issues than the SNP does. A Starmer Labour and Tory grand coalition might be possible to sideline the SNP and indyref2 if Starmer was willing, that would also keep Tory Ministers in government. A Tory SNP deal is impossible
It seems highly unlikely at this stage, that Putin will do NOTHING. Why bother with these elaborate False Flag attacks, evacuating 700,000 people, blowing up pipelines, if you only intend to threaten and gesture, and not do anything in reality?
Putin is a DO-ER. A man of action. That's his whole persona, elaborately constructed over many years. Doing *nothing* would be a major reverse, for him, now
But we can pray that nothing happens, nonetheless
Make it 2028 for IndyRef2 and both the SNP and the Tories have a reason not to pull the plug on each other. The Tories know if they do, they're heading for the Opposition benches, and the SNP won't want to rock the boat before the referendum.
My concern is that this immediate crisis will defer the day the mps act, but they will in due course
Its like the prisoners dilemma, the game theory outcome is for everyone to cheat on what they'd usually claim and make the deal.
It only becomes dangerous for them if they contrive to lose the referendum. That feels unlikely in scenario of 18 years of Tory government and 9 years of Boris as PM.
As for Putin not caring if others know what he is up to, sure, the flimsiness of denials and evasions always made that clear. But it remains interesting that he still feels he needs pretexts, however vestigial.
The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.
And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.
The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.
Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.
What Biden's current visibility on world stage is doing (methinks) is helping to restore his standing with US voters, at a time when he and (especially) his party needs for him to be getting out of the public opinion dog house.
BNO News
@BNONews
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Satellite images show Russian helicopter unit, tanks, armored personnel carriers and support equipment has arrived at Millerovo Airfield, minutes from the border with Ukraine - Reuters
If Boris manages to win 315 seats, about 60-80 seats more than Labour, from having been 10+ points behind in the polls, after 14 years of Tory-led government then that would be much more impressive than May getting around that when she went to the polls early because she had a 25 point lead.
This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .
The scenario being discussed is the Tories falling just short, eg 315 seats. In that scenario, Labour would be about 80 behind.
Quite a substantial country of world renown, actually, but with galactic-class inferiority complex.
Biden is probably right. Putin will attack Kiev AND Eastern Ukraine. Seize the capital and the Russian speaking areas. Subjugate the former, annexe the latter. Job done
It is hard to see him trying to take over all of Ukraine, what's in it for him but a grinding Vietnam/Afghanistan?
He has the troops to take the capital and impose a leader he wants, meanwhile he can expand Russia along the Black Sea, formalizing the absorption of Crimea
Most erstwhile geopolitical geniuses choose the latter route. That, or years of unchallenged power turn them a big potty.
I would hope, though I don’t pretend to know what’s on their mind, that faced with any realistic risk of this escalating to something a bit more direct and nukey, the Russian generals would tell Vlad to piss off.
I hope Putin’s warriors get similarly bogged down and humiliated.
The latter cannot be said of the incumbent...
Why is it so difficult for these journos to just check some facts? Covid Derangement Syndrome.
Quietly moving. The last 5 minutes had me weeping. Do watch if you can.
The thing is that in 2017 May losing a majority was a failure. In 2010 and [potentially in this scenario 2024] nearly getting a majority would be a success.
Success = Performance - Expectations
-Allows Labour to portray themselves as party of the union
-Many pro-independence voters are pro-independence because they see it as the most anti-tory position to take. The left wing SNP vote would collapse as quickly as the left wing Lib Dem vote following the coalition if it happened.
Labour landslide following GE after it happens. There's a case to be made it would be a better outcome in the next GE for Labour than a minority government if it happened.