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Andrew totally dominates the front pages – politicalbetting.com

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  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Not a great day for the monarchy. Just need Anne and Edward for a full house.

    William is going to have his work cut out.

    William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
    Just like you his brother is clearly too dumb to realise the Royal Family are there for Wales just as much as for England. After all his father is Prince of the bloody place.

    Anyway, we are all aware that you would much prefer President Boris.
    100% absolutely.

    A bad President can be removed (see: Trump) much easier than a bad Monarch can be.
    Trump nearly had a successful coup to remain in power in 2020.

    Bad monarchs rarely matter given we have constitutional monarchs not an absolute monarch anyway. In any case an Act of Parliament can replace one monarch by the next in the line of succession as at the Abdication.

    A bad President however like the US President has far more impact on most peoples' lives.
    Of course there is zero chance of the monarch being replaced by a president who is head of government (as in the US). A UK president would be something like the president of Ireland or Germany.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited February 2022
    Unpopular said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: glad to see the general level of disgust at rich man's "justice"

    Yes - lots of disgust being expressed.

    Justice would have meant a criminal trial where the allegations could be properly tested.

    But when I pointed this out on here weeks ago and the inappropriateness of having such serious matters decided in civil proceedings, I was told off by many on here, that Giuffre had every right to make a claim, blah blah

    And yet the end result is completely unsatisfactory: she has got some money, she has not got any admission of guilt or an apology from him, if guilty he has not been convicted and properly punished, if innocent he has not cleared his name and the promise to help sex trafficking victims is meaningless since he's retired from public life and will not be allowed to resume it.

    It is a complete mess and exactly what those who cheered Ms Giuffre on were warned was likely to happen.

    If a man commits rape he should be in prison. If he is innocent he should not have his good character attacked in this way or have to pay out.

    It's not rich man's justice. It's completely unsatisfactory and not justice at all.

    I am curious about attitudes towards fighting a civil case based on alleged criminal conduct without involving any process in the criminal justice system. I understand bringing a claim in a civil case against a defendant who was found guilty, it seems murkier when the defendant was found not guilty (though I understand this to be a consequence of the differing burdens of proof and such claims are not barred), but litigating based on criminal conduct that has not been tested at all (even at the level of a police investigation, as I understand it) seems like a potentially dark road.

    Is there any jurisprudence on this issue?
    Two different systems: there is criminal law and then there is civil law where you can sue for a tort (a wrong) done to you. That, very simply, is the basis for her claim.

    Her claim was not based any finding by a criminal court. As a matter of law, Andrew is an innocent man. What is unsatisfactory is that people can effectively be deemed to be guilty of a crime - even though they haven't been - on the basis of a legal process which has none of the rules and protections of the criminal justice system, rules and protections which are in place for very good reasons. It is also unsatisfactory for the claimant who can get a load of mud and insinuations flung at them which would not be allowed in a criminal court.

    The other reason it is unsatisfactory is this: if a man is a rapist he should not be able to buy himself out of punishment. He is, after all, potentially a risk to other women. Imagine if a paedophile was able to buy himself out of trouble but still be free to continue abusing children.

    It is a form of private justice which is fundamentally pre-modern in its mindset. That is why all civilised states have put the criminal law, prosecution and punishment in the hands of the state - on behalf of all of us - because we all have an interest in seeing that criminals are caught, convicted and properly punished.

    That is why I bore on about the criminal justice system being such a fundamental and vital obligation of the state and why I deplore its neglect and underfunding and the indifference, indeed, outright contempt for it, shown by governments and, let me be blunt, the public who think that they are being ever so edgy and perspicacious when they attack lawyers and the legal system, when in fact they are shooting themselves in the foot and attacking something which, if well done, protects them from tyrants and criminals and anarchy.

    But I do not see any way in which one can prevent people from suing for a tort. In some cases, it may be the only way in which some sort of justice can be obtained.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    Hm, yes, but - genuine question - are there any good examples anywhere in the world of this working? (Val d'Aosta in Italy strikes me as an example of a region given a greater degree of autonomy without creating constant friction between the centre and the distinct region, but that's possibly only because I don't know it terribly well.) Scotland appears to me to be very much an example of how not to do it. Devolution there appears to have created an unstoppable momentum towards separation and stoked a state of permanent grievance without seeing any noticeably better outcomes in terms of governance. (Not that the pre-devolution settlement was a model of how to do it either).

    Worth noting that language in Ukraine is not necessarily a proxy for national identity. An analogy can be drawn with Wales if you don't look too closely: the English-as-a-first-language resident of Pontypool sees himself as no less Welsh that the the Welsh-as-a-first-language resident of Caernarvon. Though there are also, I understand, in Ukraine, Russian speaker who do identify as Russian.
  • Eabhal said:

    Not a great day for the monarchy. Just need Anne and Edward for a full house.

    William is going to have his work cut out.

    William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
    Just a marketing decision by the Firm. I guess they’re breathing a sigh of relief that arid armpit Andy was more a gowf man than rugby.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2022

    Nigelb said:

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    They will, but the Minsk accords are based on the premise of the Russian occupied regions within the Ukraine border returning to Ukrainian control. Any plan is viable only once Ukraine's borders are guaranteed by all sides including Russia.
    A settlement with only Ukraine giving ground isn't a settlement at all.
    At the moment it is like the "peace deals" during the Yugoslav Wars - The international community kept demanding people sign an agreement, and the Serbs kept on creating "facts on the ground"
    I like both yours and Nigel’s posts actually.

    Do you agree with me the link is a well written and balanced piece (apart from one glaring error During his visit to Moscow on Feb. 15, Scholtz called recognizing the independence of Russian-occupied regions a “political catastrophe.” )

    What I found interesting reading it was echoes to the peace process in Northern Ireland.

    “Knowing that the militants are fully controlled by Russia, Ukraine demanded that local Donbas elections be held in compliance with Ukrainian legislation, under OSCE standards and supervision, and - only after all militant forces and paramilitaries are withdrawn and disbanded - and the eastern border is back under Ukrainian control. “

    “The Kremlin demands the “special status” and elections before withdrawing from the region (Ukraine feel the local militias are very heavily backed by Russia) meaning that it could influence the elections.”

    You could on one hand think Kiev will allow these border changing polls, all it needs is elections not influenced by Russia supplied militias. But on the other hand you could argue, Kiev can never be satisfied such a position of elections without militia influence is met. …unless pressured into it.

    Russia v Ukraine. And as you mentioned Yugoslav wars. Despite all lofty talk of Freedom and Sovereignty, it feels a bit like stepping into a neighbours house where they are having one of their time honoured barneys with each other?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Nigelb said:



    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.

    They will, but the Minsk accords are based on the premise of the Russian occupied regions within the Ukraine border returning to Ukrainian control. Any plan is viable only once Ukraine's borders are guaranteed by all sides including Russia.
    A settlement with only Ukraine giving ground isn't a settlement at all.
    Yes, I agree - that's why, as I said, it's difficult to do when seen to be a product of Russia threats. The removal of the threat with clear recognition of Ukraine as a unitary state and the inplementation of the Minsk deal (which abolishes the separatist regions so it's not bad for Ukrainian statehood) should take place in an agreed choerographed sequence. That's the sort of thing which third parties can reasonably help with.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,840
    edited February 2022
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Banks could blow all the BTLers out the water. Offer interest only on OO held property stock (At 75% LTV it would be safe enough). Higher LTVs could be sold where the bank takes a cut of the appreciation (To cover depreciation risk), to the Daddy of mortgages - 100% LTV mortgage with the bank holding all the capital risk/reward. Basically renting from the bank directly without the middle man.

    Northern Rock?
    Not the same concept, my idea is for the banks to offer 100% OO interest only mortgages with the bank taking on the risk/reward of capital appreciation.
    Well that's what the repossession is for, what's to stop the owner remortgaging 5 years later on a traditional mortgage? I'm not a huge defender of landlords, yet I'd be pretty worried if banks decided to offer products that turned them into landlords, it seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

    I can't imagine the mess of derivatives that would come into being with that kind of mortgage asset.
    Banks are already going into rental investment.

    We all know about Legal and General. Also Lloyds (50k homes), and ..er.. John Lewis.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/aug/19/lloyds-plans-big-move-into-uk-rental-market-with-50000-homes

    The blatant thing is that such will only be interested in the top of the market in all likelihood.

    L&G rents are significantly higher than normal market rents, and they aim for the top 25% or so afaics.
    Hmm - comparing to my idea it seems banks won't worry about capital depreciation as they may be able to hold the houses forever

    & When banks see how much they're making from all this (And thus more get in on the act) compared to traditional mortgages, prices will head up, up and away again...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    Facts on the ground though. Is there any more possibility of Ukraine getting the Donbass back than the Palestinians getting the West Bank and East Jerusalem?
    Should these things ever be surrendered as an aim though?
    The choice for Ukraine is either some sort of regional autonomy and a permanent Russian influence in their government, or getting shot of them behind new borders with a more Ukranian majority. Crimea is even less likely to return.
    But I don’t think the Ukrainians will ever agree with you on that.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    Yes I agree no sign of it. No sign of it either way though. Do we have enough evidence to know London and Washington aren’t on same page as Berlin and Paris behind the scenes. Though this is the area to watch, we are thankful to Carlotta for flagging this up.

    US and UK could be remaining silent whilst the Germans and French do the pressing for them? Washington and London sold out the Czechs in 1945, London had already done that to the Czechs in 1938! But no. As Ben Wallace suggested “whiff of Munich” it must be France and Germany he was referring to, not his own policy. So Think I agree with you.

    But What’s the possibility Germany, France, US, UK and Ukraine all decide to implement the pleblicite and border changes? Zero possibility? Is it appeasement. Surrendering to aggression? Or more complicated than that in bigger security picture?

    Does that explain why London and Washington remain silent on this?
    To pressure Ukraine to accept this is to invoke Munich. Why should London and Washington go that road?

    Note that the Ukrainian comments on this are specific to who they think is doing this.
    I don’t believe Washington and London were ever in the room for the Minsk agreements. Germany France, Russia and Ukraine in the room together were known as the Normandy group or something similarly odd.

    But how do these things really work though, power brokers act through actors? Gangsters certainly do, it keeps their hands clean 😁
  • MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    11% house price inflation?

    This is crazy. A direct transfer of wealth from from young workers without asset-rich parents, to the the asset rich older generation - and their offspring. Our economic system is morally bankrupt.

    Come on labour. Scrape the barnacles off the boat and consolidate the workers vote. Go into the next election offering a massive income tax cut, paid for by a proper property tax.

    A 10% increase in house prices corresponds to a 1.3% drop in birth rates, further compounding our demographic problem.

    Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2846173

    Though really you don't need a source, it's just common sense. If people can't afford the space, or ever afford to get out of the rental trap, they can't afford kids.
    Rents are the real scandal in the UK. I mean in theory it should be mortgage interest cost + cost of repairs & maintenance + some small profit/admin.
    The mortgage interest cost is very low,
    repairs are - well plenty of landlords don't seem too bothered about those..
    The profit/admin is generally huge.
    The rental situation is only going to get worse though. The new rules and regs mean that many people who were renting out the Granny flat are now pulling out of that market. It is rapidly collapsing as the costs make it no longer viable.
    Do you have a link to these new rules and regs?
    They are in many different places. The big ones are an end to Section 21 evictions (this is where a landlord can choose not to renew a tenancy at the end of the tenancy period), the automatic right to pets and the Minimum C rating for Energy Performance Certificates on all rented property. These are fine for where people are renting out a separate property but they cause all manner of complications and costs when the rented property is part of your house.

    For the record I don't rent out anything (except my soul on occasion) but got into researching this as 3 friends all renting long term in various properties reported their landlords were packing up because of the new rules. One of them is actually coming to stay with me for a while whilst he tries to find a new place.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited February 2022

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    This is correct.

    As I see it, Ukraine needs the stability to go (approximately) through the process that Western Europe went through in say 1945-1970, and much of Eastern Europe went through in 1990-2015. That is, it needs a stable environment to do what it will do.

    That is quite possibly as an EU member (if the EU gets its current internal scrummages resolved), or in some form of association.

    Which parts of Poland or Latvia or Finland want to rejoin Russia? That will perhaps be the Ukraine in 15 years if the economy can get the stability to work.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182

    Eabhal said:

    Not a great day for the monarchy. Just need Anne and Edward for a full house.

    William is going to have his work cut out.

    William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
    Just a marketing decision by the Firm. I guess they’re breathing a sigh of relief that arid armpit Andy was more a gowf man than rugby.
    Their Dad is the Prince of Wales. In those circumstances, you'd rather expect them both to be supporting Wales. Though whether Harry could find Wales on a map without help is a matter of speculation.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    Oh Poet, are you quite sure. You know, if Putin steps under a bus on Gorky Street, Igor the incinerator of the GRU will take control of Russia! Putin is a Dove compared to the nationalistic nutters who will follow him.

    20 years ago it looked like China could moderate to pro market western style nation, look how they are now so firmly gripped by extreme nationalism, their hands steady filling up with blood.
  • Pulpstar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    11% house price inflation?

    This is crazy. A direct transfer of wealth from from young workers without asset-rich parents, to the the asset rich older generation - and their offspring. Our economic system is morally bankrupt.

    Come on labour. Scrape the barnacles off the boat and consolidate the workers vote. Go into the next election offering a massive income tax cut, paid for by a proper property tax.

    A 10% increase in house prices corresponds to a 1.3% drop in birth rates, further compounding our demographic problem.

    Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2846173

    Though really you don't need a source, it's just common sense. If people can't afford the space, or ever afford to get out of the rental trap, they can't afford kids.
    Rents are the real scandal in the UK. I mean in theory it should be mortgage interest cost + cost of repairs & maintenance + some small profit/admin.
    The mortgage interest cost is very low,
    repairs are - well plenty of landlords don't seem too bothered about those..
    The profit/admin is generally huge.
    The idea rents are mostly set by costs plus profit margin is a common fallacy. They are mostly set by incomes and at the lower level by housing benefit LHA rates.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    Not a great day for the monarchy. Just need Anne and Edward for a full house.

    William is going to have his work cut out.

    William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
    Just a marketing decision by the Firm. I guess they’re breathing a sigh of relief that arid armpit Andy was more a gowf man than rugby.
    Their Dad is the Prince of Wales. In those circumstances, you'd rather expect them both to be supporting Wales. Though whether Harry could find Wales on a map without help is a matter of speculation.
    And William is the next POW...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is ready for Russia cutting off gas supplies and is 'now on the safe side for this winter'. She adds: 'One of the main lessons we have already learnt is we must diversify our energy sources and we must get rid of the dependency of Russian gas.'

    Ursula Von der Leyen also says EU sanction would go well beyond previous asset freezes/travel bans. She suggests exports of hi-tech components 'for which Russia is almost entirely dependent on us' would be cut off. 'Our sanctions can bite very hard and the Kremlin knows this.'


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1493903160632659972

    Given her past history, this will be an embargo of exports *to* Russia of

    - Natural gas
    - Vodka
    - Caviare

    She will then sue someone to cover up the fuck up - probably the Ukrainian Government.
    Does ensuring EU sanctions happen in good time rely on placing a contract.
  • Exc - Golden tier 1 investment visas for foreign billionaires to come to Britain are set for the chop over longstanding security concerns

    Priti Patel expected to announce they will be binned in immigration shakeup within weeks


    https://twitter.com/natashac/status/1493880796188483587?s=21
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,394

    A lot of “shooting the messenger” in the replies:

    Babcock boss warns Rosyth yard could move to England if Scots vote Yes…

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1493855651856064514

    I think a reason this is salient is because oil and gas has already been written off by Nicola and here's a threat to another part of the engineering/manufacturing sector in Scotland. Its' credible because rUK would be somewhat unlikely to order warships from a foreign country if there were yards in rUK that could do the .job (as there are).

    As with the codswallop about rUK paying Scots pensions, the best a lot of the Yes twitterati can do is threaten the Trident bases. Or suggest the brilliance of IndyScot negotiators would lead to wholesale concessions from the rUK. Wouldn't bet the house on that.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    Oh Poet, are you quite sure. You know, if Putin steps under a bus on Gorky Street, Igor the incinerator of the GRU will take control of Russia! Putin is a Dove compared to the nationalistic nutters who will follow him.

    20 years ago it looked like China could moderate to pro market western style nation, look how they are now so firmly gripped by extreme nationalism, their hands steady filling up with blood.
    Oh Cottontail, there are "nationalistic nutters" on both sides. That is usually the case. :)

    The Western Ukraine has been a blood-soaked place for a long time

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia
  • Exc - Golden tier 1 investment visas for foreign billionaires to come to Britain are set for the chop over longstanding security concerns

    Priti Patel expected to announce they will be binned in immigration shakeup within weeks


    https://twitter.com/natashac/status/1493880796188483587?s=21

    What are the odds there will be something called "Category A" or similar visas available to replace them.....

    File under believe it when we see the details and they actually implement it, far more likely a rebrand to assuage media and US criticism over Russian money.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Stolen from Twitter:

    "The grand old Duke of York, he had 12 million quid.
    He gave it to someone he never met, for something he never did."

    Let's hope they don't recreate the chorus - I don't want to know what happened 'when he was up'.
    Not particularly keen to hear what he was up to when he was down either tbh.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    rkrkrk said:

    Stolen from Twitter:

    "The grand old Duke of York, he had 12 million quid.
    He gave it to someone he never met, for something he never did."

    Let's hope they don't recreate the chorus - I don't want to know what happened 'when he was up'.
    Can't be any worse than "had ten thousand men", surely?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unpopular said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: glad to see the general level of disgust at rich man's "justice"

    Yes - lots of disgust being expressed.

    Justice would have meant a criminal trial where the allegations could be properly tested.

    But when I pointed this out on here weeks ago and the inappropriateness of having such serious matters decided in civil proceedings, I was told off by many on here, that Giuffre had every right to make a claim, blah blah

    And yet the end result is completely unsatisfactory: she has got some money, she has not got any admission of guilt or an apology from him, if guilty he has not been convicted and properly punished, if innocent he has not cleared his name and the promise to help sex trafficking victims is meaningless since he's retired from public life and will not be allowed to resume it.

    It is a complete mess and exactly what those who cheered Ms Giuffre on were warned was likely to happen.

    If a man commits rape he should be in prison. If he is innocent he should not have his good character attacked in this way or have to pay out.

    It's not rich man's justice. It's completely unsatisfactory and not justice at all.

    I am curious about attitudes towards fighting a civil case based on alleged criminal conduct without involving any process in the criminal justice system. I understand bringing a claim in a civil case against a defendant who was found guilty, it seems murkier when the defendant was found not guilty (though I understand this to be a consequence of the differing burdens of proof and such claims are not barred), but litigating based on criminal conduct that has not been tested at all (even at the level of a police investigation, as I understand it) seems like a potentially dark road.

    Is there any jurisprudence on this issue?
    Two different systems: there is criminal law and then there is civil law where you can sue for a tort (a wrong) done to you. That, very simply, is the basis for her claim.

    Her claim was not based any finding by a criminal court. As a matter of law, Andrew is an innocent man. What is unsatisfactory is that people can effectively be deemed to be guilty of a crime - even though they haven't been - on the basis of a legal process which has none of the rules and protections of the criminal justice system, rules and protections which are in place for very good reasons. It is also unsatisfactory for the claimant who can get a load of mud and insinuations flung at them which would not be allowed in a criminal court.

    The other reason it is unsatisfactory is this: if a man is a rapist he should not be able to buy himself out of punishment. He is, after all, potentially a risk to other women. Imagine if a paedophile was able to buy himself out of trouble but still be free to continue abusing children.

    It is a form of private justice which is fundamentally pre-modern in its mindset. That is why all civilised states have put the criminal law, prosecution and punishment in the hands of the state - on behalf of all of us - because we all have an interest in seeing that criminals are caught, convicted and properly punished.

    That is why I bore on about the criminal justice system being such a fundamental and vital obligation of the state and why I deplore its neglect and underfunding and the indifference, indeed, outright contempt for it, shown by governments and, let me be blunt, the public who think that they are being ever so edgy and perspicacious when they attack lawyers and the legal system, when in fact they are shooting themselves in the foot and attacking something which, if well done, protects them from tyrants and criminals and anarchy.

    I do not see any way in which one can prevent people from suing for a tort. In some cases, it may be the only way in which some sort of justice can be obtained.
    But I would note here that there were ample opportunities for the US prosecutors to prosecute those who allegedly abused Ms Giuffre. They did not do so. One should ask why? When they did so they did not choose to use her as a witness. Again why? She chose not to have her day in court this time either, despite having won all the interlocutory proceedings and being in an apparently strong position (Andrew would have been IMO a dreadful witness). Again, why?

    I simply do not buy the missing photo story at this stage. It is the first thing you would ask for if instructed because it is the only evidence that they had met - something which Andrew has always denied.

    Despite being in a very strong position she has not got an admission that they met, has not got an admission of any wrong doing and has not got an apology from him. I find that odd. I would like to understand why - simply from a professional perspective.

    The settlement is a very good settlement because like all good settlements it gives something to both parties, rather more to Andrew in many ways, Because he has conceded nothing in terms of his story which may matter more to him than money. But he has lost public opinion and his reputation - though that was IMO lost when he did that interview.

    But I am still troubled by the way this case has conflated "he's an ignorant arrogant entitled arse" into "therefore he's a rapist and or a nonce". That is not any form of justice. It is a form of mob justice. And if it happened to you or one of your family you'd be worried about it too.
    I think we know the why? It is incredibly likely that Ms Giuffre was implicit in finding, recruiting and trafficking younger girls for Epstein and Maxwell. Which is a story neither the US and Ms Giuffre wish to have highlighted...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited February 2022
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unpopular said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: glad to see the general level of disgust at rich man's "justice"

    Yes - lots of disgust being expressed.

    Justice would have meant a criminal trial where the allegations could be properly tested.

    But when I pointed this out on here weeks ago and the inappropriateness of having such serious matters decided in civil proceedings, I was told off by many on here, that Giuffre had every right to make a claim, blah blah

    And yet the end result is completely unsatisfactory: she has got some money, she has not got any admission of guilt or an apology from him, if guilty he has not been convicted and properly punished, if innocent he has not cleared his name and the promise to help sex trafficking victims is meaningless since he's retired from public life and will not be allowed to resume it.

    It is a complete mess and exactly what those who cheered Ms Giuffre on were warned was likely to happen.

    If a man commits rape he should be in prison. If he is innocent he should not have his good character attacked in this way or have to pay out.

    It's not rich man's justice. It's completely unsatisfactory and not justice at all.

    I am curious about attitudes towards fighting a civil case based on alleged criminal conduct without involving any process in the criminal justice system. I understand bringing a claim in a civil case against a defendant who was found guilty, it seems murkier when the defendant was found not guilty (though I understand this to be a consequence of the differing burdens of proof and such claims are not barred), but litigating based on criminal conduct that has not been tested at all (even at the level of a police investigation, as I understand it) seems like a potentially dark road.

    Is there any jurisprudence on this issue?
    Two different systems: there is criminal law and then there is civil law where you can sue for a tort (a wrong) done to you. That, very simply, is the basis for her claim.

    Her claim was not based any finding by a criminal court. As a matter of law, Andrew is an innocent man. What is unsatisfactory is that people can effectively be deemed to be guilty of a crime - even though they haven't been - on the basis of a legal process which has none of the rules and protections of the criminal justice system, rules and protections which are in place for very good reasons. It is also unsatisfactory for the claimant who can get a load of mud and insinuations flung at them which would not be allowed in a criminal court.

    The other reason it is unsatisfactory is this: if a man is a rapist he should not be able to buy himself out of punishment. He is, after all, potentially a risk to other women. Imagine if a paedophile was able to buy himself out of trouble but still be free to continue abusing children.

    It is a form of private justice which is fundamentally pre-modern in its mindset. That is why all civilised states have put the criminal law, prosecution and punishment in the hands of the state - on behalf of all of us - because we all have an interest in seeing that criminals are caught, convicted and properly punished.

    That is why I bore on about the criminal justice system being such a fundamental and vital obligation of the state and why I deplore its neglect and underfunding and the indifference, indeed, outright contempt for it, shown by governments and, let me be blunt, the public who think that they are being ever so edgy and perspicacious when they attack lawyers and the legal system, when in fact they are shooting themselves in the foot and attacking something which, if well done, protects them from tyrants and criminals and anarchy.

    I do not see any way in which one can prevent people from suing for a tort. In some cases, it may be the only way in which some sort of justice can be obtained.
    But I would note here that there were ample opportunities for the US prosecutors to prosecute those who allegedly abused Ms Giuffre. They did not do so. One should ask why? When they did so they did not choose to use her as a witness. Again why? She chose not to have her day in court this time either, despite having won all the interlocutory proceedings and being in an apparently strong position (Andrew would have been IMO a dreadful witness). Again, why?

    I simply do not buy the missing photo story at this stage. It is the first thing you would ask for if instructed because it is the only evidence that they had met - something which Andrew has always denied.

    Despite being in a very strong position she has not got an admission that they met, has not got an admission of any wrong doing and has not got an apology from him. I find that odd. I would like to understand why - simply from a professional perspective.

    The settlement is a very good settlement because like all good settlements it gives something to both parties, rather more to Andrew in many ways, Because he has conceded nothing in terms of his story which may matter more to him than money. But he has lost public opinion and his reputation - though that was IMO lost when he did that interview.

    But I am still troubled by the way this case has conflated "he's an ignorant arrogant entitled arse" into "therefore he's a rapist and or a nonce". That is not any form of justice. It is a form of mob justice. And if it happened to you or one of your family you'd be worried about it too.
    I think we know the why? It is incredibly likely that Ms Giuffre was implicit in finding, recruiting and trafficking younger girls for Epstein and Maxwell. Which is a story neither the US and Ms Giuffre wish to have highlighted...
    Isn't that libellous? You might land Mike in trouble.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Several news outlets now leading on the Prince Charles - Saudi Arabia controversy.

    The Platinum year is not going terribly well so far.

    https://news.sky.com/story/investigation-over-honours-and-citizenship-for-saudi-national-launched-by-police-12543427

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Cookie said:

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    Hm, yes, but - genuine question - are there any good examples anywhere in the world of this working? (Val d'Aosta in Italy strikes me as an example of a region given a greater degree of autonomy without creating constant friction between the centre and the distinct region, but that's possibly only because I don't know it terribly well.) Scotland appears to me to be very much an example of how not to do it. Devolution there appears to have created an unstoppable momentum towards separation and stoked a state of permanent grievance without seeing any noticeably better outcomes in terms of governance. (Not that the pre-devolution settlement was a model of how to do it either).

    Worth noting that language in Ukraine is not necessarily a proxy for national identity. An analogy can be drawn with Wales if you don't look too closely: the English-as-a-first-language resident of Pontypool sees himself as no less Welsh that the the Welsh-as-a-first-language resident of Caernarvon. Though there are also, I understand, in Ukraine, Russian speaker who do identify as Russian.
    Alto Adige (Sudtirol) is such an example.

    Of course, regional devolution works much better when within the EU. Hence why Northern Ireland has resurrected as a problem for the UK.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,760
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Banks could blow all the BTLers out the water. Offer interest only on OO held property stock (At 75% LTV it would be safe enough). Higher LTVs could be sold where the bank takes a cut of the appreciation (To cover depreciation risk), to the Daddy of mortgages - 100% LTV mortgage with the bank holding all the capital risk/reward. Basically renting from the bank directly without the middle man.

    Northern Rock?
    Not the same concept, my idea is for the banks to offer 100% OO interest only mortgages with the bank taking on the risk/reward of capital appreciation.
    Wouldn’t work with bank capital requirements
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unpopular said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: glad to see the general level of disgust at rich man's "justice"

    Yes - lots of disgust being expressed.

    Justice would have meant a criminal trial where the allegations could be properly tested.

    But when I pointed this out on here weeks ago and the inappropriateness of having such serious matters decided in civil proceedings, I was told off by many on here, that Giuffre had every right to make a claim, blah blah

    And yet the end result is completely unsatisfactory: she has got some money, she has not got any admission of guilt or an apology from him, if guilty he has not been convicted and properly punished, if innocent he has not cleared his name and the promise to help sex trafficking victims is meaningless since he's retired from public life and will not be allowed to resume it.

    It is a complete mess and exactly what those who cheered Ms Giuffre on were warned was likely to happen.

    If a man commits rape he should be in prison. If he is innocent he should not have his good character attacked in this way or have to pay out.

    It's not rich man's justice. It's completely unsatisfactory and not justice at all.

    I am curious about attitudes towards fighting a civil case based on alleged criminal conduct without involving any process in the criminal justice system. I understand bringing a claim in a civil case against a defendant who was found guilty, it seems murkier when the defendant was found not guilty (though I understand this to be a consequence of the differing burdens of proof and such claims are not barred), but litigating based on criminal conduct that has not been tested at all (even at the level of a police investigation, as I understand it) seems like a potentially dark road.

    Is there any jurisprudence on this issue?
    Two different systems: there is criminal law and then there is civil law where you can sue for a tort (a wrong) done to you. That, very simply, is the basis for her claim.

    Her claim was not based any finding by a criminal court. As a matter of law, Andrew is an innocent man. What is unsatisfactory is that people can effectively be deemed to be guilty of a crime - even though they haven't been - on the basis of a legal process which has none of the rules and protections of the criminal justice system, rules and protections which are in place for very good reasons. It is also unsatisfactory for the claimant who can get a load of mud and insinuations flung at them which would not be allowed in a criminal court.

    The other reason it is unsatisfactory is this: if a man is a rapist he should not be able to buy himself out of punishment. He is, after all, potentially a risk to other women. Imagine if a paedophile was able to buy himself out of trouble but still be free to continue abusing children.

    It is a form of private justice which is fundamentally pre-modern in its mindset. That is why all civilised states have put the criminal law, prosecution and punishment in the hands of the state - on behalf of all of us - because we all have an interest in seeing that criminals are caught, convicted and properly punished.

    That is why I bore on about the criminal justice system being such a fundamental and vital obligation of the state and why I deplore its neglect and underfunding and the indifference, indeed, outright contempt for it, shown by governments and, let me be blunt, the public who think that they are being ever so edgy and perspicacious when they attack lawyers and the legal system, when in fact they are shooting themselves in the foot and attacking something which, if well done, protects them from tyrants and criminals and anarchy.

    I do not see any way in which one can prevent people from suing for a tort. In some cases, it may be the only way in which some sort of justice can be obtained.
    But I would note here that there were ample opportunities for the US prosecutors to prosecute those who allegedly abused Ms Giuffre. They did not do so. One should ask why? When they did so they did not choose to use her as a witness. Again why? She chose not to have her day in court this time either, despite having won all the interlocutory proceedings and being in an apparently strong position (Andrew would have been IMO a dreadful witness). Again, why?

    I simply do not buy the missing photo story at this stage. It is the first thing you would ask for if instructed because it is the only evidence that they had met - something which Andrew has always denied.

    Despite being in a very strong position she has not got an admission that they met, has not got an admission of any wrong doing and has not got an apology from him. I find that odd. I would like to understand why - simply from a professional perspective.

    The settlement is a very good settlement because like all good settlements it gives something to both parties, rather more to Andrew in many ways, Because he has conceded nothing in terms of his story which may matter more to him than money. But he has lost public opinion and his reputation - though that was IMO lost when he did that interview.

    But I am still troubled by the way this case has conflated "he's an ignorant arrogant entitled arse" into "therefore he's a rapist and or a nonce". That is not any form of justice. It is a form of mob justice. And if it happened to you or one of your family you'd be worried about it too.
    I think we know the why? It is incredibly likely that Ms Giuffre was implicit in finding, recruiting and trafficking younger girls for Epstein and Maxwell. Which is a story neither the US and Ms Giuffre wish to have highlighted...
    Isn't that libellous? You might land Mike in trouble.
    Hardly plenty of reports say similar things https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/05/ghislaine-maxwell-victims-testimony-proves-prince-andrew-accuser/ is just the top one when I went looking.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    Oh Poet, are you quite sure. You know, if Putin steps under a bus on Gorky Street, Igor the incinerator of the GRU will take control of Russia! Putin is a Dove compared to the nationalistic nutters who will follow him.

    20 years ago it looked like China could moderate to pro market western style nation, look how they are now so firmly gripped by extreme nationalism, their hands steady filling up with blood.
    Oh Cottontail, there are "nationalistic nutters" on both sides. That is usually the case. :)

    The Western Ukraine has been a blood-soaked place for a long time

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia
    Oh no. Horrible image of dead every day people ☹️

    What hideous crime did they commit to deserve that 😢
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    With the current track I'd have thought they and you should be okay. It's southern Britain that looks in the firing line, especially the south-west.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    Fill up with petrol and be ready to pick them up from Glasgow when the storm abates and they route wide over Ireland behind the storm???

    It does look like a bad one: the yellow warning on Monday was very highest impact, very low confidence; the amber is highest impact with medium confidence. There's a distinct possibility of a Red weather warning for a few hours when they are more confident of when and where the highest impacts will strike.

    Moreso than would be the case for raising an Impact level from say, a high impact, high confidence Amber.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    Oh Poet, are you quite sure. You know, if Putin steps under a bus on Gorky Street, Igor the incinerator of the GRU will take control of Russia! Putin is a Dove compared to the nationalistic nutters who will follow him.

    20 years ago it looked like China could moderate to pro market western style nation, look how they are now so firmly gripped by extreme nationalism, their hands steady filling up with blood.
    Oh Cottontail, there are "nationalistic nutters" on both sides. That is usually the case. :)

    The Western Ukraine has been a blood-soaked place for a long time

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia
    Oh no. Horrible image of dead every day people ☹️

    What hideous crime did they commit to deserve that 😢
    "What hideous crime did they commit to deserve that"

    Existing.

    Civil Wars Aren't Civil.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    Heathener said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    With the current track I'd have thought they and you should be okay. It's southern Britain that looks in the firing line, especially the south-west.
    Thanks.
    I'm geared up to pick them up from elsewhere in the UK, but - typically - everywhere else seems to be harder hit than Manchester. If they can land anywhere, it'll be here.
  • The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    Oh Poet, are you quite sure. You know, if Putin steps under a bus on Gorky Street, Igor the incinerator of the GRU will take control of Russia! Putin is a Dove compared to the nationalistic nutters who will follow him.

    20 years ago it looked like China could moderate to pro market western style nation, look how they are now so firmly gripped by extreme nationalism, their hands steady filling up with blood.
    Oh Cottontail, there are "nationalistic nutters" on both sides. That is usually the case. :)

    The Western Ukraine has been a blood-soaked place for a long time

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia
    Oh no. Horrible image of dead every day people ☹️

    What hideous crime did they commit to deserve that 😢
    Not being Ukies.

    When I was in Poltava (a largely Russian-speaking city) they were flying Stephan Bandera's flag from the Victory Monument. He collaborated with the Nazis and carried out atrocities. But the enemy was Stalin who had carried out genocide against the Ukrainians...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Banks could blow all the BTLers out the water. Offer interest only on OO held property stock (At 75% LTV it would be safe enough). Higher LTVs could be sold where the bank takes a cut of the appreciation (To cover depreciation risk), to the Daddy of mortgages - 100% LTV mortgage with the bank holding all the capital risk/reward. Basically renting from the bank directly without the middle man.

    Northern Rock?
    Not the same concept, my idea is for the banks to offer 100% OO interest only mortgages with the bank taking on the risk/reward of capital appreciation.
    Wouldn’t work with bank capital requirements
    There exist buy/rent concepts today that are similar, and where it is a fund that own a portion of the property.

    Shared Ownership, I believe it is called.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2022
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    Oh Poet, are you quite sure. You know, if Putin steps under a bus on Gorky Street, Igor the incinerator of the GRU will take control of Russia! Putin is a Dove compared to the nationalistic nutters who will follow him.

    20 years ago it looked like China could moderate to pro market western style nation, look how they are now so firmly gripped by extreme nationalism, their hands steady filling up with blood.
    Oh Cottontail, there are "nationalistic nutters" on both sides. That is usually the case. :)

    The Western Ukraine has been a blood-soaked place for a long time

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia
    Oh no. Horrible image of dead every day people ☹️

    What hideous crime did they commit to deserve that 😢
    Not being Ukies.

    When I was in Poltava (a largely Russian-speaking city) they were flying Stephan Bandera's flag from the Victory Monument. He collaborated with the Nazis and carried out atrocities. But the enemy was Stalin who had carried out genocide against the Ukrainians...
    They’ve all had/got Nationalistic Militia ethnic cleansing each other!

    Why can’t they live next door to one another?

    Actually reading through all that, surprising the Poles haven’t got the popcorn out for when Putin goes in after the modern day heirs of those who committed that 50-100k mostly tortured or raped first then immolated women and children massacre 😧

    This is what the Second World War was in reality, away from Hollywood, cover for all these terrible slaughter they neighbour atrocities.

    Time to pray for peace tolerance and goodwill to everyone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    BBC saying it will be 89 miles an hour with me in south Devon on Friday morning - and that's not the gusts! - and a sustained period of high winds (50+) over several days.

    Crikey.....
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    With the current track I'd have thought they and you should be okay. It's southern Britain that looks in the firing line, especially the south-west.
    Thanks.
    I'm geared up to pick them up from elsewhere in the UK, but - typically - everywhere else seems to be harder hit than Manchester. If they can land anywhere, it'll be here.
    The current central estimated track of the highest winds appear to be skirting the south coast of Ireland and crossing to the Welsh side of the Bristol Channel late Friday morning, but still uncertainty on this. Manchester is at the top of the amber warning zone, possibly nearer the central track if it edges more up into Cardigan Bay, but a good distance from any landfall.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
    Reminds me of the time I had to land at Scilly St Mary’s in a gusty crosswind, making sure to stop the plane during the uphill first two thirds to avoid the plunge down toward the cliff after the hump in the runway, then just enough time for a quick cup of tea before taking off again flying back east to try and outrun the incoming storm. The most expensive cup of tea of my life.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited February 2022

    Exc - Golden tier 1 investment visas for foreign billionaires to come to Britain are set for the chop over longstanding security concerns

    Priti Patel expected to announce they will be binned in immigration shakeup within weeks


    https://twitter.com/natashac/status/1493880796188483587?s=21

    The other day I went looking for evidence as to how much dirty Russian money is in / has gone through London. And I couldn't find anything very clear - beyond a Transparency International claim of £4.4bn of property in the UK.

    And a total claim of 67.5bn total suspected dodgy Russian money coming in up to 2015 or so in a Guardian piece linked below. Does anyone have solid information?

    They also note that Golden Tier 1 visas significantly reduced after a clampdown at that date.

    In the eight years to September 2015, Russian citizens made up 764 of the 3,396 people who paid for these so-called golden visas – making them the second largest group of applicants, after Chinese citizens. This arrangement brought in around £800m of Russian investment, but the flow dropped markedly after April 2015, when the UK authorities began to check the origin of the money used to buy these government bonds. Once rigorous checks were put in place and the price of the visa was doubled, the number of applications fell sharply. In the final quarter of last year, just 16 Russians applied for a golden visa.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/may/25/how-britain-let-russia-hide-its-dirty-money

    Given these statements, we have a bit of possibly overdone campaigning going on now, and plenty of party politics.

    (Plus expect the French to talk about it - they demanded action on that in the UK when they were being leaned on to cancel their 1.7bn Euro contract to supply Russia with a pair of 20,000 ton amphibious landing ships around 2014.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    I hadn't realise that Mouse had sold his windmill (not in Old Amsterdam) some time ago - allegedly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    If it's worse than Arwen then it will be a bastard. Were very lucky up here it hit overnight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
    Reminds me of the time I had to land at Scilly St Mary’s, making sure to stop the plane during the uphill first two thirds to avoid the plunge down toward the cliff after the hump in the runway, then just enough time for a quick cup of tea before taking off again to try and outturn the incoming storm. The most expensive cup of tea of my life.
    Pilots joke that they get paid £100k a year for a couple of hours’ work, spending the rest of the time just playing with the computers, drinking tea and chatting up the cabin crew.

    Well, that stormy night is those couple of hours when they earn their money!

    (Yes, it’s a joke, but like every good joke there’s just about enough truth in it…)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    BBC saying it will be 89 miles an hour with me in south Devon on Friday morning - and that's not the gusts! - and a sustained period of high winds (50+) over several days.

    Crikey.....
    Yet aren’t we southerners sheltered from the worst of it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    I think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    I also suspect the desire of some parts of Ukraine to rejoin Russia will be greater, once Putin is no longer in charge.

    Ukraine are better off trying to sort the problem while the Russian leadership is unattractive.
    Oh Poet, are you quite sure. You know, if Putin steps under a bus on Gorky Street, Igor the incinerator of the GRU will take control of Russia! Putin is a Dove compared to the nationalistic nutters who will follow him.

    20 years ago it looked like China could moderate to pro market western style nation, look how they are now so firmly gripped by extreme nationalism, their hands steady filling up with blood.
    Oh Cottontail, there are "nationalistic nutters" on both sides. That is usually the case. :)

    The Western Ukraine has been a blood-soaked place for a long time

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia
    Oh no. Horrible image of dead every day people ☹️

    What hideous crime did they commit to deserve that 😢
    Not being Ukies.

    When I was in Poltava (a largely Russian-speaking city) they were flying Stephan Bandera's flag from the Victory Monument. He collaborated with the Nazis and carried out atrocities. But the enemy was Stalin who had carried out genocide against the Ukrainians...
    They’ve all had/got Nationalistic Militia ethnic cleansing each other!

    Why can’t they live next door to one another?

    Actually reading through all that, surprising the Poles haven’t got the popcorn out for when Putin goes in after the modern day heirs of those who committed that 50-100k mostly tortured or raped first then immolated women and children massacre 😧

    This is what the Second World War was in reality, away from Hollywood, cover for all these terrible slaughter they neighbour atrocities.

    Time to pray for peace tolerance and goodwill to everyone.
    Ha.

    You've got Poles vs Ukrainians vs Russians vs X vs Y .....

    The first rule of such civil wars is that it its perfectly possible to have 8 sides - all hating each other.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
    Reminds me of the time I had to land at Scilly St Mary’s, making sure to stop the plane during the uphill first two thirds to avoid the plunge down toward the cliff after the hump in the runway, then just enough time for a quick cup of tea before taking off again to try and outturn the incoming storm. The most expensive cup of tea of my life.
    Pilots joke that they get paid £100k a year for a couple of hours’ work, spending the rest of the time just playing with the computers, drinking tea and chatting up the cabin crew.

    Well, that stormy night is those couple of hours when they earn their money!

    (Yes, it’s a joke, but like every good joke there’s just about enough truth in it…)
    They spent their schooldays looking out of the window, and became so proficient that they decided to make a career out of it?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    MattW said:

    Exc - Golden tier 1 investment visas for foreign billionaires to come to Britain are set for the chop over longstanding security concerns

    Priti Patel expected to announce they will be binned in immigration shakeup within weeks


    https://twitter.com/natashac/status/1493880796188483587?s=21

    The other day I went looking for evidence as to how much dirty Russian money is in / has gone through London. And I couldn't find anything very clear - beyond a Transparency International claim of £4.4bn of property in the UK.

    And a total claim of 67.5bn total suspected dodgy Russian money coming in up to 2015 or so in a Guardian piece linked below. Does anyone have solid information?

    They also note that Golden Tier 1 visas significantly reduced after a clampdown at that date.

    In the eight years to September 2015, Russian citizens made up 764 of the 3,396 people who paid for these so-called golden visas – making them the second largest group of applicants, after Chinese citizens. This arrangement brought in around £800m of Russian investment, but the flow dropped markedly after April 2015, when the UK authorities began to check the origin of the money used to buy these government bonds. Once rigorous checks were put in place and the price of the visa was doubled, the number of applications fell sharply. In the final quarter of last year, just 16 Russians applied for a golden visa.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/may/25/how-britain-let-russia-hide-its-dirty-money

    Given these statements, we have a bit of possibly overdone campaigning going on now, and plenty of party politics.

    (Plus expect the French to talk about it - they demanded action on that in the UK when they were being leaned on to cancel their 1.7bn Euro contract to supply Russia with a pair of 20,000 ton amphibious landing ships around 2014.)
    Actually, I note that 16 every quarter is 16*32 = 512 in 8 years, so if sustained that rate is not such a large sounding fall.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
    Winds will be westerlies - orientation of the runway at Manchester is SW-NE.

    If the forecast pans out and the worst is over by 7, we should be ok.

    Pro-Rata's suggestion of making sure I have a full tank of petrol is a good one though!
    In all honesty, I wouldn't mind a late night dash to Glasgow. Three-and-three-quarter hours to get there - if I was to hear at half 6 that planes were being diverted I could be there not much after ten. They wouldn't have to wait around long, traffic on the way home would be light, the kids would get to see Scotland for the first time - albeit in the night and in the middle of a hailstorm - and they'd probably sleep on the way home.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    Worth reading their annual report:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rzw_QwiIL8oB_UI0IG4FgEJQCjSKo4NP/view

    In 2020/2021, our income increased significantly, to £2.9m. Our expenditure amounted to £1.8m for the year. We were able to significantly build our supporter base, increasing the number of regular donors by 11,052, and our income from regular and one-off donations to £1.1m, up from £0.2m in the previous year. Without this vital income stream, we could not deliver our litigation programme and continue to strengthen our organisation.

    A fool and their money...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138
    edited February 2022
    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
    Winds will be westerlies - orientation of the runway at Manchester is SW-NE.

    If the forecast pans out and the worst is over by 7, we should be ok.

    Pro-Rata's suggestion of making sure I have a full tank of petrol is a good one though!
    In all honesty, I wouldn't mind a late night dash to Glasgow. Three-and-three-quarter hours to get there - if I was to hear at half 6 that planes were being diverted I could be there not much after ten. They wouldn't have to wait around long, traffic on the way home would be light, the kids would get to see Scotland for the first time - albeit in the night and in the middle of a hailstorm - and they'd probably sleep on the way home.
    This really is going to be the big news of the end of the week. Peak winds in the South West and South East means more deciduous trees to blow over on high ground than further North, and more chaos in aviation and shipping. Plus more national journalists affected.

    Looking at the raw modelled wind speeds they’re the strongest I can remember being predicted this close to the event in the SE.

    Perfect SW to NE track with rapid deepening and sting jet.

    I’m getting the ferry from Calais the next day. Just 55- 60mph gusts by then.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    "Malaysian female minister advises husbands to beat their 'stubborn' wives 'gently' to discipline them for 'unruly' behaviour

    Siti Zailah Mohd Yusoff suggested husbands sleep separately from wives for three days if the women do not change their 'unruly' behaviour
    But if that did not work, the minister said the husbands should strike their wives
    Deputy minister for women and family accused of normalising domestic abuse "

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10518473/Outrage-Malaysian-female-minister-advises-husbands-beat-stubborn-wives-gently.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    Many years back, a mate walked into a rather disreputable pub off Tottenham Court road, dressed in usual business suit. We were all off to the park to play softball - so he had his kit in a bag and the baseball bat in his hand.

    Someone saw a large gent in a suit enter the pub, baseball bat in hand and called the police.

    Some little time later (I hadn't arrived by then) the police stormed into the pub, looking for the Piranha Bothers. It took a long time before they accepted that someone in London was using a baseball bat to play a sport...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,138
    Oh and spring tides too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    Andy_JS said:

    "Malaysian female minister advises husbands to beat their 'stubborn' wives 'gently' to discipline them for 'unruly' behaviour

    Siti Zailah Mohd Yusoff suggested husbands sleep separately from wives for three days if the women do not change their 'unruly' behaviour
    But if that did not work, the minister said the husbands should strike their wives
    Deputy minister for women and family accused of normalising domestic abuse "

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10518473/Outrage-Malaysian-female-minister-advises-husbands-beat-stubborn-wives-gently.html

    No mention of sticks no thicker than your thumb?

    Progress indeed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
    Winds will be westerlies - orientation of the runway at Manchester is SW-NE.

    If the forecast pans out and the worst is over by 7, we should be ok.

    Pro-Rata's suggestion of making sure I have a full tank of petrol is a good one though!
    In all honesty, I wouldn't mind a late night dash to Glasgow. Three-and-three-quarter hours to get there - if I was to hear at half 6 that planes were being diverted I could be there not much after ten. They wouldn't have to wait around long, traffic on the way home would be light, the kids would get to see Scotland for the first time - albeit in the night and in the middle of a hailstorm - and they'd probably sleep on the way home.
    Yes, Manchester’s runways are orientated 50º and 230º, if you look at them on Google maps you see the numbers 05 and 23 painted at the end.

    If they end up in Glasgow or London, the airline will probably put them all on the next train to Manchester, or rent a bus - assuming trains are running and motorways open! If they’re lucky they’ll get a free night in an hotel, and a trip to Manchester in the morning.

    Alternate airports could be a long way away though, Madrid, Paris, Amsterdam would all be reasonable places to stop as far as the pilots are concerned, or they might postpone the flight 24h and leave them in the Canaries, especially if the corresponding outbound flight is also delayed. Airplane logistics gets complicated, with pilots also having duty time limits and mandatory rest breaks. They also have a company operations centre they can call or message from the plane, to help the pilots with decision-making. What’s almost certain, is that there will be planes scattered out of position all over Europe for a couple of days at the weekend!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    Worth reading their annual report:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rzw_QwiIL8oB_UI0IG4FgEJQCjSKo4NP/view

    In 2020/2021, our income increased significantly, to £2.9m. Our expenditure amounted to £1.8m for the year. We were able to significantly build our supporter base, increasing the number of regular donors by 11,052, and our income from regular and one-off donations to £1.1m, up from £0.2m in the previous year. Without this vital income stream, we could not deliver our litigation programme and continue to strengthen our organisation.

    A fool and their money...
    For a QC he's, how can I put it, remarkably creative about the accuracy of his statements.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
    My understanding is that line this will probably not work if you try it in front of a judge. They’ve heard it before...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
    My understanding is that line this will probably not work if you try it in front of a judge. They’ve heard it before...
    Surely the next question would be

    "Where were you going to practise/play?"

    followed by

    "Who were you going to practise/play with?"

    You can't even practise baseball/softball on your own.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited February 2022

    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
    My understanding is that line this will probably not work if you try it in front of a judge. They’ve heard it before...
    Surely the next question would be

    "Where were you going to practise/play?"

    followed by

    "Who were you going to practise/play with?"

    You can't even practise baseball/softball on your own.
    You can at the batting cages, of which there are now several in and around London. You don't even need the ball and glove...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    Applicant said:

    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
    My understanding is that line this will probably not work if you try it in front of a judge. They’ve heard it before...
    Surely the next question would be

    "Where were you going to practise/play?"

    followed by

    "Who were you going to practise/play with?"

    You can't even practise baseball/softball on your own.
    You can at the batting cages, of which there are now several in and around London. You don't even need the ball and glove...
    So you were going to a batting cage? Which one, where? Have you ever been to a batting cage in London before? etc etc
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Do NOT go out on Friday. Storm Eunice is likely really really really nasty.

    "Has the potential to be the worst storm in several decades" BBC lunchtime forecast, following a Met Office update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    60mph winds in Manchester. 90mph on the south coast!

    At what stage do aeroplanes stop flying/landing/bothering to even take off? Wife and kids flying back from the Canaries on Friday afternoon. Landing in Manchester about 8 - by that stage the current forecast is down to about 20mph. Should I be worried?
    A steady wind of about 50mph is okay, so long as it’s down the runway and not across it. Gusty winds are more difficult for pilots, as they’re unpredictable and cause speed changes inside the plane, which makes it ‘unstable’ on approach and they go around (abandon the landing). They study the weather carefully before they take off, and will plan for an ‘alternate’ airport that’s clear of the storm, where they can land and sit it out. A few more gallons of fuel than usual too!
    Also, about 30mph winds, bridges start getting closed to traffic, starting with high-sided trucks, particularly empty ones. By 50-55 mph, they shut the bridges to all traffic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    O/t but this has just popped up in my inbox. Leon might be interested. Whether it'll make any difference to anyone .......

    Thai ministers are set to change Bangkok's name to Krung Thep Maha Nakhon
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    IanB2 said:
    If Mr Johnson avoids a FPN on the evidence we have seen including photographs, it proves conclusively he is indeed above the law.

    If as a nation we are fine by this, so be it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    'Britons lay the blame on Russia when it comes to the situation in Ukraine. % that say it's the responsibility of…

    Entirely Russia: 32%
    More Russia than NATO: 23%
    NATO and Russia equally: 12%
    More NATO than Russia: 3%
    Entirely NATO: 2%
    Don't know: 28%'
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1493978893556006916?s=20&t=GJpeZlvIg-1Tfga0Mic9Zg
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    O/t but this has just popped up in my inbox. Leon might be interested. Whether it'll make any difference to anyone .......

    Thai ministers are set to change Bangkok's name to Krung Thep Maha Nakhon

    Krung Thep Maha Nakhon by name, Krung Thep Maha Nakhon by nature, doesn’t have quite the same ring to it…
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    IanB2 said:
    If Mr Johnson avoids a FPN on the evidence we have seen including photographs, it proves conclusively he is indeed above the law.

    If as a nation we are fine by this, so be it.
    Whatever happens (or doesn't) we can no longer hang it all on Dick.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Sandpit said:

    O/t but this has just popped up in my inbox. Leon might be interested. Whether it'll make any difference to anyone .......

    Thai ministers are set to change Bangkok's name to Krung Thep Maha Nakhon

    Krung Thep Maha Nakhon by name, Krung Thep Maha Nakhon by nature, doesn’t have quite the same ring to it…
    Doesn't trip off the tongue, does it!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    TimS said:

    Oh and spring tides too.

    Yes. 9am on the West Wales coast, coincident with the worst of the storm. Aberystwyth might be fun. Also Milford Haven...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    UK R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    Case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    Deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    Age related data

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  • Cyclefree said:

    Unpopular said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: glad to see the general level of disgust at rich man's "justice"

    Yes - lots of disgust being expressed.

    Justice would have meant a criminal trial where the allegations could be properly tested.

    But when I pointed this out on here weeks ago and the inappropriateness of having such serious matters decided in civil proceedings, I was told off by many on here, that Giuffre had every right to make a claim, blah blah

    And yet the end result is completely unsatisfactory: she has got some money, she has not got any admission of guilt or an apology from him, if guilty he has not been convicted and properly punished, if innocent he has not cleared his name and the promise to help sex trafficking victims is meaningless since he's retired from public life and will not be allowed to resume it.

    It is a complete mess and exactly what those who cheered Ms Giuffre on were warned was likely to happen.

    If a man commits rape he should be in prison. If he is innocent he should not have his good character attacked in this way or have to pay out.

    It's not rich man's justice. It's completely unsatisfactory and not justice at all.

    I am curious about attitudes towards fighting a civil case based on alleged criminal conduct without involving any process in the criminal justice system. I understand bringing a claim in a civil case against a defendant who was found guilty, it seems murkier when the defendant was found not guilty (though I understand this to be a consequence of the differing burdens of proof and such claims are not barred), but litigating based on criminal conduct that has not been tested at all (even at the level of a police investigation, as I understand it) seems like a potentially dark road.

    Is there any jurisprudence on this issue?
    Two different systems: there is criminal law and then there is civil law where you can sue for a tort (a wrong) done to you. That, very simply, is the basis for her claim.

    Her claim was not based any finding by a criminal court. As a matter of law, Andrew is an innocent man. What is unsatisfactory is that people can effectively be deemed to be guilty of a crime - even though they haven't been - on the basis of a legal process which has none of the rules and protections of the criminal justice system, rules and protections which are in place for very good reasons. It is also unsatisfactory for the claimant who can get a load of mud and insinuations flung at them which would not be allowed in a criminal court.

    The other reason it is unsatisfactory is this: if a man is a rapist he should not be able to buy himself out of punishment. He is, after all, potentially a risk to other women. Imagine if a paedophile was able to buy himself out of trouble but still be free to continue abusing children.

    It is a form of private justice which is fundamentally pre-modern in its mindset. That is why all civilised states have put the criminal law, prosecution and punishment in the hands of the state - on behalf of all of us - because we all have an interest in seeing that criminals are caught, convicted and properly punished.

    That is why I bore on about the criminal justice system being such a fundamental and vital obligation of the state and why I deplore its neglect and underfunding and the indifference, indeed, outright contempt for it, shown by governments and, let me be blunt, the public who think that they are being ever so edgy and perspicacious when they attack lawyers and the legal system, when in fact they are shooting themselves in the foot and attacking something which, if well done, protects them from tyrants and criminals and anarchy.

    But I do not see any way in which one can prevent people from suing for a tort. In some cases, it may be the only way in which some sort of justice can be obtained.
    Indeed, thanks for this reply. Both consequences in this situation sit uneasily with me (implications of guilt for those who have not been given the benefit of a criminal trial, and the potentially guilty being able to pay away their criminality). The ability to bring a civil claim can really bolster justice for victims of crimes. As I understand it, when civil cases are brought following a criminal conviction, the civil burden of proof is automatically satisfied, and so the two systems of civil and criminal justice are not necessarily blind to each other.

    I guess there isn't, nor should there be, a way to stop someone who has suffered a wrong from pursuing their rights in a civil case, and if that is the only avenue of justice available...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    .

    IanB2 said:
    If Mr Johnson avoids a FPN on the evidence we have seen including photographs, it proves conclusively he is indeed above the law.

    If as a nation we are fine by this, so be it.
    Whatever happens (or doesn't) we can no longer hang it all on Dick.
    On the events of the last 30 years we can invariably hang Johnson's problems on Dick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    COVID Summary

    Cases down. R below 1, overall. R is below 1 in nearly all regions - Why is Scotland an outlier?
    Hospital admissions down. R below 1
    MV Beds down, steadily
    In Hospital down, steadily
    Deaths down, steadily

    image
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Unpopular said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unpopular said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: glad to see the general level of disgust at rich man's "justice"

    Yes - lots of disgust being expressed.

    Justice would have meant a criminal trial where the allegations could be properly tested.

    But when I pointed this out on here weeks ago and the inappropriateness of having such serious matters decided in civil proceedings, I was told off by many on here, that Giuffre had every right to make a claim, blah blah

    And yet the end result is completely unsatisfactory: she has got some money, she has not got any admission of guilt or an apology from him, if guilty he has not been convicted and properly punished, if innocent he has not cleared his name and the promise to help sex trafficking victims is meaningless since he's retired from public life and will not be allowed to resume it.

    It is a complete mess and exactly what those who cheered Ms Giuffre on were warned was likely to happen.

    If a man commits rape he should be in prison. If he is innocent he should not have his good character attacked in this way or have to pay out.

    It's not rich man's justice. It's completely unsatisfactory and not justice at all.

    I am curious about attitudes towards fighting a civil case based on alleged criminal conduct without involving any process in the criminal justice system. I understand bringing a claim in a civil case against a defendant who was found guilty, it seems murkier when the defendant was found not guilty (though I understand this to be a consequence of the differing burdens of proof and such claims are not barred), but litigating based on criminal conduct that has not been tested at all (even at the level of a police investigation, as I understand it) seems like a potentially dark road.

    Is there any jurisprudence on this issue?
    Two different systems: there is criminal law and then there is civil law where you can sue for a tort (a wrong) done to you. That, very simply, is the basis for her claim.

    Her claim was not based any finding by a criminal court. As a matter of law, Andrew is an innocent man. What is unsatisfactory is that people can effectively be deemed to be guilty of a crime - even though they haven't been - on the basis of a legal process which has none of the rules and protections of the criminal justice system, rules and protections which are in place for very good reasons. It is also unsatisfactory for the claimant who can get a load of mud and insinuations flung at them which would not be allowed in a criminal court.

    The other reason it is unsatisfactory is this: if a man is a rapist he should not be able to buy himself out of punishment. He is, after all, potentially a risk to other women. Imagine if a paedophile was able to buy himself out of trouble but still be free to continue abusing children.

    It is a form of private justice which is fundamentally pre-modern in its mindset. That is why all civilised states have put the criminal law, prosecution and punishment in the hands of the state - on behalf of all of us - because we all have an interest in seeing that criminals are caught, convicted and properly punished.

    That is why I bore on about the criminal justice system being such a fundamental and vital obligation of the state and why I deplore its neglect and underfunding and the indifference, indeed, outright contempt for it, shown by governments and, let me be blunt, the public who think that they are being ever so edgy and perspicacious when they attack lawyers and the legal system, when in fact they are shooting themselves in the foot and attacking something which, if well done, protects them from tyrants and criminals and anarchy.

    But I do not see any way in which one can prevent people from suing for a tort. In some cases, it may be the only way in which some sort of justice can be obtained.
    Indeed, thanks for this reply. Both consequences in this situation sit uneasily with me (implications of guilt for those who have not been given the benefit of a criminal trial, and the potentially guilty being able to pay away their criminality). The ability to bring a civil claim can really bolster justice for victims of crimes. As I understand it, when civil cases are brought following a criminal conviction, the civil burden of proof is automatically satisfied, and so the two systems of civil and criminal justice are not necessarily blind to each other.

    I guess there isn't, nor should there be, a way to stop someone who has suffered a wrong from pursuing their rights in a civil case, and if that is the only avenue of justice available...
    As in the Raith Rovers case.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited February 2022
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
    I once got escorted by one of the heavies all the way through Chicago O'Hare (changing for Seattle) because I had ice axes in the luggage.

    It was only September so you could perhaps forgive them for the paranoia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    .
    IanB2 said:

    How No 10 is testing out excuses to enable Boris Johnson to escape the Partygate scandal...

    Trying them out on PB ?
  • New thread
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited February 2022
    It seems this thread has been

    struck out

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    How No 10 is testing out excuses to enable Boris Johnson to escape the Partygate scandal...

    Trying them out on PB ?
    Starmer, being an experienced prosecution lawyer could have a fruitful afternoon with those.
  • Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
    I once got escorted by one of the heavies all the way through Chicago O'Hare (changing for Seattle) because I had ice axes in the luggage.

    It was only September so you could perhaps forgive them for the paranoia.
    They found a bullet in my luggage at Johannesburg Airport recently.

    I can explain.

    Honest.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good (sic) Law Project may be in trouble:

    The problem is that this is an existential issue for the GLP. Its whole point is that it can sue anyone it chooses over any error of public law. But that has now been rejected by the court. Crucially it raises money on the basis it can sue over any error.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-the-good-law-project-been-dealt-a-blow-

    That’s a lot of words to say “vexatious parasite”.
    Joylon Maugham seems to have dug himself further into a hole today by saying that his comms were "basically right" because he didn't say "we won", but that's exactly the phrase they used in their email and on their funding page.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1493927185794666497

    image
    This from the chap who thought that Tweeting that he'd beaten a fox to death with the baseball bat he kept to attack burglars with was a good idea.
    More interesting is the thought that Jo Maugham is a keen baseball player.

    It was I think the Russian Federation which recorded (how? who knows) that something like half a million baseball bats had been sold over a given period, and around 500 baseballs.
    LOL. A good friend of mine (who went on to become a fine police constable), as a teenager carried a baseball and glove in the back of his car, so he could tell the copper who stopped him that he was on his way to baseball practice!
    I once got escorted by one of the heavies all the way through Chicago O'Hare (changing for Seattle) because I had ice axes in the luggage.

    It was only September so you could perhaps forgive them for the paranoia.
    They found a bullet in my luggage at Johannesburg Airport recently.

    I can explain.

    Honest.
    I doubt one more bullet in Jo'burg would make much difference!
  • Cyclefree said:

    On topic: glad to see the general level of disgust at rich man's "justice"

    Yes - lots of disgust being expressed.

    Justice would have meant a criminal trial where the allegations could be properly tested.

    But when I pointed this out on here weeks ago and the inappropriateness of having such serious matters decided in civil proceedings, I was told off by many on here, that Giuffre had every right to make a claim, blah blah

    And yet the end result is completely unsatisfactory: she has got some money, she has not got any admission of guilt or an apology from him, if guilty he has not been convicted and properly punished, if innocent he has not cleared his name and the promise to help sex trafficking victims is meaningless since he's retired from public life and will not be allowed to resume it.

    It is a complete mess and exactly what those who cheered Ms Giuffre on were warned was likely to happen.

    If a man commits rape he should be in prison. If he is innocent he should not have his good character attacked in this way or have to pay out.

    It's not rich man's justice. It's completely unsatisfactory and not justice at all.

    So Cyclefree, do you STILL think that Rancid Andy's lawyers are crap?

    Personally think that the true crap mouthpiece is . . . as per usual . . . David Boies . . .
This discussion has been closed.