It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
Is that the same Chris Bryant who fought two general elections for Jeremy Corbyn, or a different one?
The issue with British winters is not the temperature, it is the lack of sunlight.
The table for sunlight hours on wiki is quite illuminating, and explains why I never enjoyed a single English winter in twenty years living there…
My daughter suffers from SAD. It is cumulative and this time of year is the worst. She is currently in Cyprus and it genuinely is for medical reasons.
I am happy she has a found a way through. I don’t really want to spend another Q1 in the UK.
OTOH I would never want to spend a Q1 in NYC. The bitter, sometimes deadly cold grinds you down, the same way the darkness depresses you in the UK
They've got cars big as bars They've got rivers of gold But the wind goes right through you It's no place for the old
It’s actually great, though. The quality of light is brilliant and the air smells fresh despite what must be atrocious pollution from the oversized cars.
I’ve taken the kids to school every day since Jan 4 across Central Park; I think minus 8 was probably the lowest. You just need to dress properly.
I’m dreading the summer, though.
Good for you, but not for me. I hate the cold, possibly more than the dark
I love tropical climates, basically. I would ideally do six months in Sri Lanka/Thailand etc (in their dry season) then the other six spring summer months in Europe, mostly London and the UK with some side trips to the Med
I wilt in the heat.
I was v v v v lucky to grow up in Auckland, New Zealand which basically never goes below zero or above 30.
It’s a bit humid, but otherwise I’d challenge anyone to find a better climate on earth.
My ideal is basically
Q1, NZ Q2, London (well, NYC these days) Q3, Normandy or something Q4, London again.
I lived in Christchurch, and it had a much nicer climate than Auckland or Wellington. Kiwis rate Nelson, Napier or Bay of Plenty better, but rather small towns for me.
Of course Christchurch lost a lot in the Earthquake since I was there.
Regarding winter in the UK - it is better inland than on the coast. Getting battered by gales and heavy rain just makes life miserable from November to February. The flipside is the rest of the year is a big improvement, having got through the winter makes you appreciate it more.
I used to quite enjoy the gales and heavy rain when I lived in Aber.
That said, I was quite a bit younger then.
And whatever the weather, the view from my office in Hugh Owen Building was always stunning. Either a melancholic grandeur with the wind and rain, or a perfect azure sky and sea, and when I was working late (which I often did) the sunsets were just something else.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
Is that the same Chris Bryant who fought two general elections for Jeremy Corbyn, or a different one?
Famously Denis Healey’s first rule of holes was: when you are in one, stop digging. His second rule is just as important: when you finally stop digging, you’re still in a hole.
After nearly two weeks where, on the issue of pensions, the SNP simply could not be persuaded to stop digging, it is worth looking at how deep a hole they are now in.
‘If an independent country such as Iceland, with a population only marginally bigger than Ayrshire, can manage pensions, currency, health, education & international relations, why on earth would anyone conclude that Scotland couldn’t?'
Quite
I don't know what the answer is, but there are several possibilities. This pile on is Johnsonism at its worst; it is up there with Starmer/Savile and lies on buses.
Of course Scotland can. But they need to accept that the transition is complicated and disruptive and they won’t get free handouts from the rUK
How the **** is Harry Maguire anywhere near the England team?
How is he getting a game ahead of Bailly, Lingard, Jones, my gran?
Maguire and Andrew Robertson were part of the mighty back four in Hull City’s magnificent, relegation 2016-17 season… saw the when we beat Liverpool 2-0… it’s instructive that one has ended up at Liverpool, and is world class, the other one…
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
You seem to be suggesting that your stance has been vindicated somehow, but I don't see in what way?
How the **** is Harry Maguire anywhere near the England team?
How is he getting a game ahead of Bailly, Lingard, Jones, my gran?
Maguire and Andrew Robertson were part of the mighty back four in Hull City’s magnificent, relegation 2016-17 season… saw the when we beat Liverpool 2-0… it’s instructive that one has ended up at Liverpool, and is world class, the other one…
Maguire was great for 2 years at Leicester, and England was a lot better with him in 2018 and 2020. He is a good player, though not without faults. He played a lot better with Ndidi in front of him for example.
No footballer is without fault, Ronaldo rarely tracks back or tackles for example, the key is to blend the team to build on their strengths and compensate for their vulnerabilities.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
You seem to be suggesting that your stance has been vindicated somehow, but I don't see in what way?
Well, we can be fairly sure that China isn't about to send a stream of refugees from Eastern Europe towards the west. Russia, on the other hand, plausibly is.
The result of such an influx of refugees will not be political harmony, will it?
And that's apart from any direct threat Russia may pose, doesn't take too much imagination to think about.
If there is a Russian invasion of Ukraine we can expect it to be very well recorded through open sources, but there's serious questions about how effectively that information is analysed and shared with the public.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
Is that the same Chris Bryant who fought two general elections for Jeremy Corbyn, or a different one?
Is your point that Russian influence has penetrator both parties, as well as a lot of our media? If so I agree. Money talks, especially to politicians. Hence the money laundromat and Belgravia bolthole for kleptocrats from the world over.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
Is that the same Chris Bryant who fought two general elections for Jeremy Corbyn, or a different one?
Is your point that Russian influence has penetrator both parties, as well as a lot of our media? If so I agree. Money talks, especially to politicians. Hence the money laundromat and Belgravia bolthole for kleptocrats from the world over.
I suspect a fair chunk of the Labour useful idiots are doing it for free….
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
You seem to be suggesting that your stance has been vindicated somehow, but I don't see in what way?
Well, we can be fairly sure that China isn't about to send a stream of refugees from Eastern Europe towards the west. Russia, on the other hand, plausibly is.
The result of such an influx of refugees will not be political harmony, will it?
And that's apart from any direct threat Russia may pose, doesn't take too much imagination to think about.
Perhaps @Luckyguy1983 simply doesn’t follow the news.
Drawing on a recent Freedom of Information (FOI) response, this blog looks at the pattern and substance of Scottish Government meetings on gender recognition reform between May and December 2021. We describe what meetings took place, at whose initiative, what was discussed and what these records tell us about the Scottish Government’s relationship with external bodies, and its understanding of reform.
The analysis highlights a marked bias in engagement towards those who agree with the Government position. Despite a manifesto commitment to a consultative approach, the Scottish Government did not set up any meetings with groups that submitted critical comments to its last consultation.
It becomes clear, in fact, that one reason why the Scottish Government has been unable to “conscientiously take into account” any criticism of its proposals is that it fundamentally misunderstands the law it is proposing to reform…..
Maintaining this mindset has been aided by officials & Ministers avoiding engagement with those who disagree with them. They have instead kept their detailed engagement to people who share, & presumably supported in the first place, their (mis)perception of the law as it stands.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
Famously Denis Healey’s first rule of holes was: when you are in one, stop digging. His second rule is just as important: when you finally stop digging, you’re still in a hole.
After nearly two weeks where, on the issue of pensions, the SNP simply could not be persuaded to stop digging, it is worth looking at how deep a hole they are now in.
‘If an independent country such as Iceland, with a population only marginally bigger than Ayrshire, can manage pensions, currency, health, education & international relations, why on earth would anyone conclude that Scotland couldn’t?'
Quite
I don't know what the answer is, but there are several possibilities. This pile on is Johnsonism at its worst; it is up there with Starmer/Savile and lies on buses.
Of course Scotland can. But they need to accept that the transition is complicated and disruptive and they won’t get free handouts from the rUK
I'm not sure that Scotland's leaders are expecting any transition to be easy. It would require a negotiation, a trade off, "back scratching". Mind you, the way that this government has handled the exiting the EU negotiations doesn't fill me with optimism.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
I disagree completely about looking silly, I think the idea we'd look silly if there is not now an invasion is, sorry to say, pretty dumb.
People can see the Russians are built up on the border, and either they are ready to invade or they are wanting to look like they are ready to invade. Either way a response to that possibility being imminent is not silly, even if it does not occur.
It's the same logic the Corbyns of the world will use if no invasion occurs, saying it shows there never would have been so all reaction was overblown.
Just seen an outdoor billboard entreating people to 'level up' with the army cadets. First time ive seen that in real life, I guess someone at least got the government memo.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
How the **** is Harry Maguire anywhere near the England team?
How is he getting a game ahead of Bailly, Lingard, Jones, my gran?
Maguire and Andrew Robertson were part of the mighty back four in Hull City’s magnificent, relegation 2016-17 season… saw the when we beat Liverpool 2-0… it’s instructive that one has ended up at Liverpool, and is world class, the other one…
Maguire was great for 2 years at Leicester, and England was a lot better with him in 2018 and 2020. He is a good player, though not without faults. He played a lot better with Ndidi in front of him for example.
No footballer is without fault, Ronaldo rarely tracks back or tackles for example, the key is to blend the team to build on their strengths and compensate for their vulnerabilities.
For sure, getting Maguire for £12m, getting two decent years out of him and moving him on for £80m represents excellent business…
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
Better safe than sorry. If they don't make this call and an attack occurs, you just know our wonderful media will blame our governments for not doing more to warn people to get out.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
Xi has been talking to Putin, not impossible China will invade Taiwan soon too. The US, Australia, UK defence pact therefore looks sensible. Boris has always been committed to NATO, more so than Macron
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
It’s potentially a very good tactic by US/UK. Russia has been saying they aren’t going to invade but can’t be trusted. If they are going to invade then there is the much remarked upon window before the thaw makes it harder for their tanks etc.
If the US/UK say Russia are about to attack then Russia either attacks and gets the opprobrium and sanctions it would deserve and shows themselves to be liars, or if they think “we can’t invade because it shows either the US/UK were right and so good judgement or they clearly have very good intelligence on us” - then neither option looks good for Russia.
The US/UK tactic could result in Russia having to hold off to “prove US/UK wrong” and so if this pushes back any Russian invasion then it makes it harder for Russia on the ground due to missing the window if they do still go in, or it reduces the chances of them going in because they have missed the window.
I think the US/UK would rather people pointed and laughed and said they were wrong and overly worried than the alternative which is a brutal and problematic war.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
Reports this week had Boris keen to re-engage with China on trade.
The whiplash for those dwindling Johnson / Brexit supporters must be extreme.
Just seen an outdoor billboard entreating people to 'level up' with the army cadets. First time ive seen that in real life, I guess someone at least got the government memo.
So if us Northerners want to level up we need to receive combat training.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
Xi has been talking to Putin too, not impossible China will invade Taiwan soon too. Boris has always been committed to NATO, more so than Macron
China is surely dissuaded from any invasion of Taiwan by how it would look. From their point of view Chinese fighting Chinese, and for no reason. The Ukranians aren't ready for the Russian army. The Taiwanse defences are ready for the Chinese.
Just seen an outdoor billboard entreating people to 'level up' with the army cadets. First time ive seen that in real life, I guess someone at least got the government memo.
So if us Northerners want to level up we need to receive combat training.
It won't be given. So you either go without or you take it.
Deborah Haynes@haynesdeborah·8hFor those in UK, US, EU who look at Ukraine crisis & take comfort in fact it’s not happening in their back yard - don’t be fooled. If Russia invades in defiance of warnings, it’s a direct challenge to a world order that’s seen Western democracies, rules & ideas dominate since WW2
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
Better safe than sorry. If they don't make this call and an attack occurs, you just know our wonderful media will blame our governments for not doing more to warn people to get out.
I vaguely recall a story about a boy who cried wolf. IIRC the outcome was ultimately suboptimal. See also Matilda.
I also think that hyping up this threat in this way makes it harder for Putin to back off without losing serious face. That is not ideal either.
Reading the Opinium changes - interesting. Essentially as i understand it they are no longer believing people who say they will vote, and instead going by whether they actually voted last time.
I see a case for that. But motivation to vote is part of the changes in attitudes over time. For example, I think quite a few people voted Labour in 2017 as Corbyn was new toi them, but they went off him in 2019. That's not much guide to how that group will vote in 2023/4; conversely there may be some who really liked him in 2019 and don't much fancy the new regime (cf. BigG and the Jezziah), and might well not vote. The same sort of thing arises with the Tories. On the whole, I think that stated certainty to vote is more convincing than what we did last time.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
Xi has been talking to Putin too, not impossible China will invade Taiwan soon too. Boris has always been committed to NATO, more so than Macron
China is surely dissuaded from any invasion of Taiwan by how it would look. From their point of view Chinese fighting Chinese, and for no reason. The Ukranians aren't ready for the Russian army. The Taiwanse defences are ready for the Chinese.
Xi will likely invade Taiwan soon enough, he is committed to a One China policy
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
Better safe than sorry. If they don't make this call and an attack occurs, you just know our wonderful media will blame our governments for not doing more to warn people to get out.
I vaguely recall a story about a boy who cried wolf. IIRC the outcome was ultimately suboptimal. See also Matilda.
I also think that hyping up this threat in this way makes it harder for Putin to back off without losing serious face. That is not ideal either.
But the wolves are lined up at the border. What else can our governments do?
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
That's equally true of Bulgaria and that country has been part of the EU for 15 years.
David Patrikarakos@dpatrikarakos·4hPutin has actually always been pretty cautious and calculating/rational. Is this still the case? Or has 20 years of being the Czar sent him mad - like so many before him? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
Better safe than sorry. If they don't make this call and an attack occurs, you just know our wonderful media will blame our governments for not doing more to warn people to get out.
Exactly this, the Afghanistan debacle is still fresh in the memory
Have no doubts , however, that the possibility of a Russian attack is very much on the table. The troops levels, the dispositions, force types and the sheer number of combat formations as a proportion of the Russian active army would tell you that the tools are there. I posted late Thursday that the Russians would have everything in place force composition & disposition-wise within the next 48 hours. The urgency of tone from many countries in the last 24 hours indicates that.
What potentially moves it from a possible to probable event is the lack of off ramps that the Russians have given themselves. They have gone to the wire and for what so far? The West and the Ukrainians haven't yielded an inch. An effective annexation of Belarus is it but that was on the cards anyway.
Putin is in danger of putting himself in a shit or get off the pot situation.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
Xi has been talking to Putin too, not impossible China will invade Taiwan soon too. Boris has always been committed to NATO, more so than Macron
China is surely dissuaded from any invasion of Taiwan by how it would look. From their point of view Chinese fighting Chinese, and for no reason. The Ukranians aren't ready for the Russian army. The Taiwanse defences are ready for the Chinese.
Xi will likely invade Taiwan soon enough, he is committed to a One China policy
He gains nothing and possibly loses everything. Taiwan is a minor annoyance at most. The tensions within China are surely his main issue. From his point of view it's ok, but it could be better.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
Xi has been talking to Putin, not impossible China will invade Taiwan soon too. The US, Australia, UK defence pact therefore looks sensible. Boris has always been committed to NATO, more so than Macron
My Analysis how close Conservative Party have been to China and Russia both in and out the Lobby the last 10 years doesn’t play and wont play, is because the Chinese in particular were wise to groom and seduce all the UK parties, they’ve all got plenty to hide. Focus only falls on Tories because they are holding power. That’s a pretty likely analysis isn’t it?
Blimey, just got to the last episode of The Crown series four. I don’t care about them making stuff up about the royals and their private lives, but it’s a proper hatchet job on Thatcher.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
What they’ve been trying to do, is to reposition themselves from looking east to looking west. But that comes with costs.
The 2014 problems there, came from a decision of the government to closer align with the EU.
The bear to the east wants to keep the place poor so they join with him, and every time they start to look west that bear growls a little louder.
(Actually, Ukraine would make an awesome trade partner with a non-EU UK. An almost unlimited source of agricultural land, and a safe place to outsource more intellectual work. Now, I know I am biased on this, but it does work).
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
That's equally true of Bulgaria and that country has been part of the EU for 15 years.
It’s not though.
Bulgarian GDP per capita has quadrupled since 1989. Ukraine is closer to doubling. Even Belarus has done better than Ukraine.
Aside from homegrown issues, there’s been an absolute failure to bring Ukraine into the Western economic order.
"Anti-Semitic Muslim who claimed Grenfell Tower victims were ‘burnt alive in a Jewish sacrifice’ is jailed for 11 months for stirring racial hatred
Tahra Ahmed, 51, posted antisemitic conspiracy theories on social media She was found guilty of two counts of stirring up racial hatred at the Old Bailey Ahmed wrote a post claiming Jews 'have always been behind ritual torture' She volunteered to help survivors and grieving families in the days aftet the blaze "
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
What they’ve been trying to do, is to reposition themselves from looking east to looking west. But that comes with costs.
The 2014 problems there, came from a decision of the government to closer align with the EU.
The bear to the east wants to keep the place poor so they join with him, and every time they start to look west that bear growls a little louder.
(Actually, Ukraine would make an awesome trade partner with a non-EU UK. An almost unlimited source of agricultural land, and a safe place to outsource more intellectual work. Now, I know I am biased on this, but it does work).
The 2014 problems came from a decision in Russia to attack Ukraine. Nothing else. Blaming the victim is not just offensive, it's factually wrong. Ukraine was within its sovereign rights to seek closer relationships with one party without having a chunk taken out of it by another.
Blimey, just got to the last episode of The Crown series four. I don’t care about them making stuff up about the royals and their private lives, but it’s a proper hatchet job on Thatcher.
You can’t libel the dead……it’s got distinctly worse as Morgan has gravitated from research to prejudice.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
That's equally true of Bulgaria and that country has been part of the EU for 15 years.
It’s not though.
Bulgarian GDP per capita has quadrupled since 1989. Ukraine is closer to doubling. Even Belarus has done better than Ukraine.
Aside from homegrown issues, there’s been an absolute failure to bring Ukraine into the Western economic order.
Ukraine's economy took a really big hit directly after and as a result of Russia invading a large chunk of its territory.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
What they’ve been trying to do, is to reposition themselves from looking east to looking west. But that comes with costs.
The 2014 problems there, came from a decision of the government to closer align with the EU.
The bear to the east wants to keep the place poor so they join with him, and every time they start to look west that bear growls a little louder.
(Actually, Ukraine would make an awesome trade partner with a non-EU UK. An almost unlimited source of agricultural land, and a safe place to outsource more intellectual work. Now, I know I am biased on this, but it does work).
I’m not sure what you mean by costs.
Apart from using some very good Ukrainian developers, I’ve no real understanding of the country.
But when I look at it’s economic performance since 1989 and compare it with either it’s West-facing neighbours (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania etc) and even its Russia facing neighbours (Belarus, Russia itself), it’s an economic disaster.
GDP per capita is pathetic.
Ironically the people of Crimea have seen living standards rise since the Russian annexation.
I want to see a West-facing Ukraine, but I just want to note that the place is fucked, has been fucked for thirty years, and it is potentially arguable that independence is a chimera compared to stagnant living standards for ordinary people.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
That's equally true of Bulgaria and that country has been part of the EU for 15 years.
It’s not though.
Bulgarian GDP per capita has quadrupled since 1989. Ukraine is closer to doubling. Even Belarus has done better than Ukraine.
Aside from homegrown issues, there’s been an absolute failure to bring Ukraine into the Western economic order.
Ukraine's economy took a really big hit directly after and as a result of Russia invading a large chunk of its territory.
Yes, but/and performance before that was already really dreadful.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
What they’ve been trying to do, is to reposition themselves from looking east to looking west. But that comes with costs.
The 2014 problems there, came from a decision of the government to closer align with the EU.
The bear to the east wants to keep the place poor so they join with him, and every time they start to look west that bear growls a little louder.
(Actually, Ukraine would make an awesome trade partner with a non-EU UK. An almost unlimited source of agricultural land, and a safe place to outsource more intellectual work. Now, I know I am biased on this, but it does work).
The 2014 problems came from a decision in Russia to attack Ukraine. Nothing else. Blaming the victim is not just offensive, it's factually wrong. Ukraine was within its sovereign rights to seek closer relationships with one party without having a chunk taken out of it by another.
Indeed. The trigger was Ukraine trying to face west, but the aggression was totally on Putin and Russia. I’m really not seeking to blame the victim, my wife is Ukranian.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
That's equally true of Bulgaria and that country has been part of the EU for 15 years.
It’s not though.
Bulgarian GDP per capita has quadrupled since 1989. Ukraine is closer to doubling. Even Belarus has done better than Ukraine.
Aside from homegrown issues, there’s been an absolute failure to bring Ukraine into the Western economic order.
Ukraine's economy took a really big hit directly after and as a result of Russia invading a large chunk of its territory.
Yes, but/and performance before that was already really dreadful.
I was looking at GDP growth figures for Ukraine and Russia earlier, and the noticeable difference was the middle dip post invasion for Ukraine. Both countries were hit by the GFC and Covid. Given that, I don't think the Ukraine's figures were especially bad before Putin came and chewed a limb off.
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
What they’ve been trying to do, is to reposition themselves from looking east to looking west. But that comes with costs.
The 2014 problems there, came from a decision of the government to closer align with the EU.
The bear to the east wants to keep the place poor so they join with him, and every time they start to look west that bear growls a little louder.
(Actually, Ukraine would make an awesome trade partner with a non-EU UK. An almost unlimited source of agricultural land, and a safe place to outsource more intellectual work. Now, I know I am biased on this, but it does work).
I’m not sure what you mean by costs.
Apart from using some very good Ukrainian developers, I’ve no real understanding of the country.
But when I look at it’s economic performance since 1989 and compare it with either it’s West-facing neighbours (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania etc) and even its Russia facing neighbours (Belarus, Russia itself), it’s an economic disaster.
GDP per capita is pathetic.
Ironically the people of Crimea have seen living standards rise since the Russian annexation.
I want to see a West-facing Ukraine, but I just want to note that the place is fucked, has been fucked for thirty years, and it is potentially arguable that independence is a chimera compared to stagnant living standards for ordinary people.
The costs are the Russian reaction in 2014, and the current situation.
They’ve seen what’s happened to Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, and want to be a part of that.
The Ukranian currency devalued 75% vs the US$ in 2014, and has barely recovered since. Ukrainians keep their savings in dollars literally under the mattress.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
If it all kicks off in the Ukraine then Boris's foreign-policy legacy will surely be in tatters. What the hell was he doing making submarine deals on the other side of the world and pissing off the French while Putin was deep into his plans for European conquest? Talk about taking your eye off the ball.
Xi has been talking to Putin too, not impossible China will invade Taiwan soon too. Boris has always been committed to NATO, more so than Macron
China is surely dissuaded from any invasion of Taiwan by how it would look. From their point of view Chinese fighting Chinese, and for no reason. The Ukranians aren't ready for the Russian army. The Taiwanse defences are ready for the Chinese.
Xi will likely invade Taiwan soon enough, he is committed to a One China policy
We can safely file this under "wont happen", especially for the foreseeable future.
“The Federal Foreign Office has also issued a travel warning for Ukraine. German nationals in Ukraine are asked to consider leaving the country.” - Foreign Minister @ABaerbock 3/3
What is clear is that both the US and the UK are ratcheting up the threat level to Ukraine about as high as it can go. Last weekend it was Embassy staff that were being cleared out, now it is everyone, including the soldiers that have been training the Ukranians to use their new kit.
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
The suggestion is that Russia was planning a ‘false flag’ attack for cover, so the US and UK have gone in hard now to prevent that development.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
It’s important to note that, despite the software industry (which I’ve used), that Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
What they’ve been trying to do, is to reposition themselves from looking east to looking west. But that comes with costs.
The 2014 problems there, came from a decision of the government to closer align with the EU.
The bear to the east wants to keep the place poor so they join with him, and every time they start to look west that bear growls a little louder.
(Actually, Ukraine would make an awesome trade partner with a non-EU UK. An almost unlimited source of agricultural land, and a safe place to outsource more intellectual work. Now, I know I am biased on this, but it does work).
The 2014 problems came from a decision in Russia to attack Ukraine. Nothing else. Blaming the victim is not just offensive, it's factually wrong. Ukraine was within its sovereign rights to seek closer relationships with one party without having a chunk taken out of it by another.
Indeed. The trigger was Ukraine trying to face west, but the aggression was totally on Putin and Russia. I’m really not seeking to blame the victim, my wife is Ukranian.
Righto, just there's an awful lot of it about on here, people saying that we shouldn't mess about in Russia's "sphere of influence" as if we should pretend that Ukraine isn't big enough and ugly enough to make its own mind up. It's amazing how many people have a Great Power attitude to geopolitics and not only accept but actively argue in favour of saying that one country must be subservient to another against its will just because it's nearby. They should try that attitude on someone from, say, Lithuania if they really want to get a well-earned earful.
Blimey, just got to the last episode of The Crown series four. I don’t care about them making stuff up about the royals and their private lives, but it’s a proper hatchet job on Thatcher.
Yep, the Tories did indeed do a proper hatchet job on her!
The fuss is, in the calamity of this reset she was stupidly over looked for the whips office.
That’s Dominic Greaves old seat. And people were arguing on here with me, the cultural revolution of 2019 did not change the DNA of the Tory Party. Really?
Blimey, just got to the last episode of The Crown series four. I don’t care about them making stuff up about the royals and their private lives, but it’s a proper hatchet job on Thatcher.
You can’t libel the dead……it’s got distinctly worse as Morgan has gravitated from research to prejudice.
I enjoyed Gillian Anderson's performance but the portrayal was a bit grotesque. Where the show was strong imo was on the Charles/Diana/Camilla story. I think they nailed the essence of that in a way that was fair to the 3 of them.
Ignore the crappy scale, but see what has happened to Ukrainian money since 2014.
Awesome for me going there on holiday and buying $1 beers, not so awesome for those living there buying close to $2/litre petrol. Most of the people who live in my wife’s home city, can’t afford to get a $60 taxi 150km to Kiev airport, let alone a flight to anywhere.
The issue with British winters is not the temperature, it is the lack of sunlight.
The table for sunlight hours on wiki is quite illuminating, and explains why I never enjoyed a single English winter in twenty years living there…
My daughter suffers from SAD. It is cumulative and this time of year is the worst. She is currently in Cyprus and it genuinely is for medical reasons.
I am happy she has a found a way through. I don’t really want to spend another Q1 in the UK.
OTOH I would never want to spend a Q1 in NYC. The bitter, sometimes deadly cold grinds you down, the same way the darkness depresses you in the UK
They've got cars big as bars They've got rivers of gold But the wind goes right through you It's no place for the old
It’s actually great, though. The quality of light is brilliant and the air smells fresh despite what must be atrocious pollution from the oversized cars.
I’ve taken the kids to school every day since Jan 4 across Central Park; I think minus 8 was probably the lowest. You just need to dress properly.
I’m dreading the summer, though.
Good for you, but not for me. I hate the cold, possibly more than the dark
I love tropical climates, basically. I would ideally do six months in Sri Lanka/Thailand etc (in their dry season) then the other six spring summer months in Europe, mostly London and the UK with some side trips to the Med
I wilt in the heat.
I was v v v v lucky to grow up in Auckland, New Zealand which basically never goes below zero or above 30.
It’s a bit humid, but otherwise I’d challenge anyone to find a better climate on earth.
My ideal is basically
Q1, NZ Q2, London (well, NYC these days) Q3, Normandy or something Q4, London again.
I lived in Christchurch, and it had a much nicer climate than Auckland or Wellington. Kiwis rate Nelson, Napier or Bay of Plenty better, but rather small towns for me.
Of course Christchurch lost a lot in the Earthquake since I was there.
If you like a very moderate climate, both ends of the temperature range, the Roseland Peninsula is about as good as it gets. Spring starts in mid-January IIRC.
Ignore the crappy scale, but see what has happened to Ukrainian money since 2014.
Awesome for me going there on holiday and buying $1 beers, not so awesome for those living there buying close to $2/litre petrol. Most of the people who live in my wife’s home city, can’t afford to get a $60 taxi 150km to Kiev airport, let alone a flight to anywhere.
What’s your read on the ordinary Ukrainian view?
One other thing I’ve noticed is that Russia is now an exporter of grain, and one of (if not the world’s leading) supplier of wheat.
It’s possible Putin just wants Ukraine’s wheat production - which, with investment, should be the world’s largest - which is concentrated in the east and south.
Or, he wants to stop it becoming part of the EU order.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
You seem to be suggesting that your stance has been vindicated somehow, but I don't see in what way?
Well, we can be fairly sure that China isn't about to send a stream of refugees from Eastern Europe towards the west. Russia, on the other hand, plausibly is.
The result of such an influx of refugees will not be political harmony, will it?
And that's apart from any direct threat Russia may pose, doesn't take too much imagination to think about.
Perhaps @Luckyguy1983 simply doesn’t follow the news.
Sarcasm aside, you still haven't said why recent developments should convince anyone that Russia is a bigger threat to the UK than China. They are menacing a near neighbour. China also menaces its near neighbours, but that doesn't seem to make the headlines.
Ignore the crappy scale, but see what has happened to Ukrainian money since 2014.
Awesome for me going there on holiday and buying $1 beers, not so awesome for those living there buying close to $2/litre petrol. Most of the people who live in my wife’s home city, can’t afford to get a $60 taxi 150km to Kiev airport, let alone a flight to anywhere.
What’s your read on the ordinary Ukrainian view?
One other thing I’ve noticed is that Russia is now an exporter of grain, and one of (if not the world’s leading) supplier of wheat.
It’s possible Putin just wants Ukraine’s wheat production - which, with investment, should be the world’s largest - which is concentrated in the east and south.
Or, he wants to stop it becoming part of the EU order.
Good question. There’s dozens of different views coming from Russian and Ukranian forums, and to be honest I’ve given up listening to wifey, as much as she has given up trying to understand the whole thing.
I’m not sure that grain and wheat come into it too much, they’re secondary considerations. I guess in Putin’s dreams, he can starve the EU of food as well as gas.
What’s clear though, is that Putin sees Ukraine as within the Russian ‘sphere’, if not Russian territory, and very much dislikes any suggestion that the EU and NATO might come closer to his border. He’s also desparate for domestic wins after the pandemic, which has been brutal for Russia.
Younger Americans forget Alaska is closer to Russia than most of Europe is
Judging by American education I suspect they have little idea where anywhere is.
Be interesting to see how many could differentiate between the Baltic and Black Seas.
Where's Guam? Perhaps you know, but I bet Americans would outscore Europeans on that. Even, where are the Phillipines?
They'll almost certainly do better on 'where's Canada?' too.
Yeah, my point was really that the foreign secretary of a European country should be able to differentiate without thinking about it.
If we're talking about Truss, she doesn't regard herself as coming from a European country, does she. Nowadays anyway. She's representing, in her mind, a World Power.
Why do people who quit from senior public sector jobs always seem to qualify for a payout? According to the Mail Dick is expecting to be paid the remainder of her 2 year contract amounting to something close to £500k https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10504449/Cressida-Dick-Sadiq-Khan-war-500-000-payoff-plus-160-000-year-pension.htm She has resigned. She might look to claim that she was constructively dismissed because one of her employers expressed a lack of trust and confidence in her. He might reply for very good reasons and do you want a list?
But it will probably be resolved by a very expensive deal which will be concealed for "confidentialty" reasons. Bah.
Same reason people in the private sector are compensated for "loss of office" (or at least the ones well above my paygrade). Because it is the boss class who write the contracts.
But it is our money she is beiing loaded up with.
Admittedly, in her case, asking her to actually work for it would do more harm than good and we are well shot of her. But could she not be redeployed to some (very) quiet Hamlet somewhere to walk the beat for the next 2 years?
I mean, I appreciate that there is a non negligible risk someone in that Hamlet may get shot whilst going about their business, that several people will be accused of being peodophiles without a shred of credible evidence, that race relations may deterioate to a significant extent and that she would still find ways of bullying people and abusing her position whilst taking positive steps to block any inquiry into her behaviour but its the principle of the thing.
The price of failure and mediocrity when you reach a certain level is a very good pay off. It is not her but the whole system. Sadly it is just us proles who get a month or two in lieu of notice and off you go.
Proles get nothing. It is the upper middle who get a month or two off with full pay. And the top who get a year or twos pay.
Not in any business I’ve worked in that has made redundancies and there have been a few. The proles, like me, always got their notice period paid in full.
Yes but your notice is never 2 years long.
That’s right. 3 months is the maximum I have ever had. Currently 2 months.
My notice is 3 months in my current entry level pretty much minimum wage job. I presume it will be much higher in future…
Dream on
Eh? I don’t want it to be higher.
@gallowgate So you were talking about salary being bigger rather than wanting a bigger notice period. It read that way to me at least. I thought it was odd wanting a longer notice period.
It must be about a year since I argued, against a swarm of Brexiters on here, that Russia was a more important threat to the UK than China. (At that stage joining the TPP was the great white hope).
Is that the same Chris Bryant who fought two general elections for Jeremy Corbyn, or a different one?
Is your point that Russian influence has penetrator both parties, as well as a lot of our media? If so I agree. Money talks, especially to politicians. Hence the money laundromat and Belgravia bolthole for kleptocrats from the world over.
Situation rather similar to that prevailing under the last of the Stuarts, from Charles II through Anne.
Perhaps the Churchill that Boris is REALLY trying to emulate, is not Winston, but rather John, 1st Duke of Marlborough? Who first gained advancement sleeping with Charles II's (then chief) mistress, glomming onto James II, until betraying him at last minute for William & Mary.
Then led British & allied armies to great victory over Louis XIV's Euro-plot for continental supremacy (sound familiar) at Battle of Blenheim; hence the House and dukedom. Later career more checkered, including spell in Tower of London after fall of Whigs and rise of (real?) Tories during reign of Queen Anne.
BTW (and also FYI) note that Sarah, Duchess of Marlborough was as political, and historically notorious, as her hubby. Again, sound at least slightly familiar?
At least IMHO seems like Carrie models herself more after Sarah Churchill than Clementine Churchill?
Comments
Of course Christchurch lost a lot in the Earthquake since I was there.
That said, I was quite a bit younger then.
And whatever the weather, the view from my office in Hugh Owen Building was always stunning. Either a melancholic grandeur with the wind and rain, or a perfect azure sky and sea, and when I was working late (which I often did) the sunsets were just something else.
Pathetic.
Huge task in front of new manager
No footballer is without fault, Ronaldo rarely tracks back or tackles for example, the key is to blend the team to build on their strengths and compensate for their vulnerabilities.
The result of such an influx of refugees will not be political harmony, will it?
And that's apart from any direct threat Russia may pose, doesn't take too much imagination to think about.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1492429454471225348?s=20&t=_TaHsvvesO-Z_fHc-FzhVA
The analysis highlights a marked bias in engagement towards those who agree with the Government position. Despite a manifesto commitment to a consultative approach, the Scottish Government did not set up any meetings with groups that submitted critical comments to its last consultation.
https://murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2022/02/11/the-room-where-it-happens/
Maintaining this mindset has been aided by officials & Ministers avoiding engagement with those who disagree with them. They have instead kept their detailed engagement to people who share, & presumably supported in the first place, their (mis)perception of the law as it stands.
https://twitter.com/mbmpolicy/status/1492400579854929922
Either the US and UK are getting a lot of chatter indicating that attack is imminent or they are going to look slightly silly. If we are not confident that the attack is about to start I am not sure I understand our current tactics.
People can see the Russians are built up on the border, and either they are ready to invade or they are wanting to look like they are ready to invade. Either way a response to that possibility being imminent is not silly, even if it does not occur.
It's the same logic the Corbyns of the world will use if no invasion occurs, saying it shows there never would have been so all reaction was overblown.
If the US/UK say Russia are about to attack then Russia either attacks and gets the opprobrium and sanctions it would deserve and shows themselves to be liars, or if they think “we can’t invade because it shows either the US/UK were right and so good judgement or they clearly have very good intelligence on us” - then neither option looks good for Russia.
The US/UK tactic could result in Russia having to hold off to “prove US/UK wrong” and so if this pushes back any Russian invasion then it makes it harder for Russia on the ground due to missing the window if they do still go in, or it reduces the chances of them going in because they have missed the window.
I think the US/UK would rather people pointed and laughed and said they were wrong and overly worried than the alternative which is a brutal and problematic war.
The whiplash for those dwindling Johnson / Brexit supporters must be extreme.
@MacaesBruno
Look at those numbers for younger people. It’s a new America-island
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1492515101546618884
https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1492245569980489729?s=21
I believe he posts on here as @BartholomewRoberts.
So you either go without or you take it.
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah
I also think that hyping up this threat in this way makes it harder for Putin to back off without losing serious face. That is not ideal either.
I see a case for that. But motivation to vote is part of the changes in attitudes over time. For example, I think quite a few people voted Labour in 2017 as Corbyn was new toi them, but they went off him in 2019. That's not much guide to how that group will vote in 2023/4; conversely there may be some who really liked him in 2019 and don't much fancy the new regime (cf. BigG and the Jezziah), and might well not vote. The same sort of thing arises with the Tories. On the whole, I think that stated certainty to vote is more convincing than what we did last time.
There’s a small window of a couple of weeks, because of the weather in eastern Ukraine. If that time passes off peacefully, it will be another year.
The other suggestion is that Putin doesn’t care about actually invading, as much as he cares about keeping up the uncertainty in Ukraine and investment away. Kiev has a thriving software industry, for example, selling internationally and earning hard currency. It’s in Russia’s interest to stop people wanting to do business in Kiev, and make the city poorer.
I wonder how many British forces there already will actually leave, or maybe (as in Libya) the evacuation flights will have the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service going the other way.
The bigger question is, how can Putin back down from here without losing face. He might feel he’s now committed.
We need to hear from Carrie.
Obviously I’m not pro-Russia, but independent Ukraine is riddled with poverty and corruption. Whatever Ukraine has been doing since independence hasn’t actually been working.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10503819/Joy-Morrissey-Boriss-new-Parliamentary-Private-Secretary-starred-racy-budget-movies.html
https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1492444776049872896
Have no doubts , however, that the possibility of a Russian attack is very much on the table. The troops levels, the dispositions, force types and the sheer number of combat formations as a proportion of the Russian active army would tell you that the tools are there. I posted late Thursday that the Russians would have everything in place force composition & disposition-wise within the next 48 hours. The urgency of tone from many countries in the last 24 hours indicates that.
What potentially moves it from a possible to probable event is the lack of off ramps that the Russians have given themselves. They have gone to the wire and for what so far? The West and the Ukrainians haven't yielded an inch. An effective annexation of Belarus is it but that was on the cards anyway.
Putin is in danger of putting himself in a shit or get off the pot situation.
The 2014 problems there, came from a decision of the government to closer align with the EU.
The bear to the east wants to keep the place poor so they join with him, and every time they start to look west that bear growls a little louder.
(Actually, Ukraine would make an awesome trade partner with a non-EU UK. An almost unlimited source of agricultural land, and a safe place to outsource more intellectual work. Now, I know I am biased on this, but it does work).
Bulgarian GDP per capita has quadrupled since 1989. Ukraine is closer to doubling. Even Belarus has done better than Ukraine.
Aside from homegrown issues, there’s been an absolute failure to bring Ukraine into the Western economic order.
Tahra Ahmed, 51, posted antisemitic conspiracy theories on social media
She was found guilty of two counts of stirring up racial hatred at the Old Bailey
Ahmed wrote a post claiming Jews 'have always been behind ritual torture'
She volunteered to help survivors and grieving families in the days aftet the blaze "
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10505383/Grenfell-volunteer-jailed-claiming-victims-burnt-alive-Jewish-sacrifice.html
Apart from using some very good Ukrainian developers, I’ve no real understanding of the country.
But when I look at it’s economic performance since 1989 and compare it with either it’s West-facing neighbours (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania etc) and even its Russia facing neighbours (Belarus, Russia itself), it’s an economic disaster.
GDP per capita is pathetic.
Ironically the people of Crimea have seen living standards rise since the Russian annexation.
I want to see a West-facing Ukraine, but I just want to note that the place is fucked, has been fucked for thirty years, and it is potentially arguable that independence is a chimera compared to stagnant living standards for ordinary people.
They'll almost certainly do better on 'where's Canada?' too.
They’ve seen what’s happened to Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, and want to be a part of that.
The Ukranian currency devalued 75% vs the US$ in 2014, and has barely recovered since. Ukrainians keep their savings in dollars literally under the mattress.
“The Federal Foreign Office has also issued a travel warning for Ukraine. German nationals in Ukraine are asked to consider leaving the country.” - Foreign Minister @ABaerbock 3/3
https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1492523802474991622
That’s Dominic Greaves old seat. And people were arguing on here with me, the cultural revolution of 2019 did not change the DNA of the Tory Party. Really?
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1492527330425774083
The Dutch, understandably, sensitive over Ukrainian air space.
They don't look like eyes and ears
Awesome for me going there on holiday and buying $1 beers, not so awesome for those living there buying close to $2/litre petrol. Most of the people who live in my wife’s home city, can’t afford to get a $60 taxi 150km to Kiev airport, let alone a flight to anywhere.
Russell didn't have a great game but Wales deserved the win.
One other thing I’ve noticed is that Russia is now an exporter of grain, and one of (if not the world’s leading) supplier of wheat.
It’s possible Putin just wants Ukraine’s wheat production - which, with investment, should be the world’s largest - which is concentrated in the east and south.
Or, he wants to stop it becoming part of the EU order.
I’m not sure that grain and wheat come into it too much, they’re secondary considerations. I guess in Putin’s dreams, he can starve the EU of food as well as gas.
What’s clear though, is that Putin sees Ukraine as within the Russian ‘sphere’, if not Russian territory, and very much dislikes any suggestion that the EU and NATO might come closer to his border. He’s also desparate for domestic wins after the pandemic, which has been brutal for Russia.
Perhaps the Churchill that Boris is REALLY trying to emulate, is not Winston, but rather John, 1st Duke of Marlborough? Who first gained advancement sleeping with Charles II's (then chief) mistress, glomming onto James II, until betraying him at last minute for William & Mary.
Then led British & allied armies to great victory over Louis XIV's Euro-plot for continental supremacy (sound familiar) at Battle of Blenheim; hence the House and dukedom. Later career more checkered, including spell in Tower of London after fall of Whigs and rise of (real?) Tories during reign of Queen Anne.
BTW (and also FYI) note that Sarah, Duchess of Marlborough was as political, and historically notorious, as her hubby. Again, sound at least slightly familiar?
At least IMHO seems like Carrie models herself more after Sarah Churchill than Clementine Churchill?