The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
Putin screwed up, not us.
He’s failed to develop his domestic economy, millions of his people live in poverty (poverty, not inequality), he wasted billions on the Olympics and the World Cup, he exports almost nothing but gas, Russia has had a terrible response to the pandemic, he’s attracted sanctions due to extra-judicial killings overseas, and needs his people to see some form of “success”.
Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault?
The question is why didn't we learn anything from the previous breed?
Unfortunately, there are some lessons that each generation needs to learn anew, for themselves, often the hard way.
It may be a coincidence that the new waves of populism broke as the people who directly experienced WW2 left public life and then life itself, but the timing is suggestive.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
He pushed his luck on multiple occasions and no one stood up to him
Georgia? South Ossetia? Syria? Crimea? Donetsk?
Why would he stop?
How were we meant to “stand up to him” in Georgia or South Ossetia? Nuke Volgograd? Parachute into Red Square?
No one is going to do that. Certainly not you, or your sons and daughters, should you have them. Who would sacrifice their British child for “Donetsk”?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
I don’t think it’s self hatred and guilt.
It is a given that Putin is an aggressive man with a complex about Russia’s status and recovering former glories. Old school politician.
It’s reasonable to argue the West has failed to contain him, in the way that the 1930s failed to contain Hitler.
That’s not self hatred; that’s asking sensible questions about what we could have done differently
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
I don't think it is "us" that have screwed up, it is a combination of many factors. But I would say the main reason could be summarised as western naivety, and it is still much in evidence now.
The apparent weakness of the Western alliances might be a factor.
There's the Afghanistan debacle for a start, democracy in the US looking shaky, and the EU fragmenting. These things might encourage an opportunist.
I wonder also what pressure Putin is under internally.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
I think you are being unfair to Jonathan. He is not blaming us for Putin invading Ukraine, if he does, but what, if anything, we could have done differently in the past to prevent this. Currently on BBC news they are discussing just this.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
I think you are being unfair to Jonathan. He is not blaming us for Putin invading Ukraine, if he does, but what, if anything, we could have done differently in the past to prevent this. Currently on BBC news they are discussing just this.
Fair enough. Perhaps I was a bit snappy. Sorry Jonathan. I also forget that it is about 8am there and cold
Horrifically poor voter retention for the Liberal Democrats. Lots of LDs planning on voting Labour, but no reciprocation.
2019 UK GE voters - how they’ll vote next time:
Con: Con 84% Lab 5% LD 3% Grn 1%
Lab: Lab 91% Grn 9% Con 0 LD 0
LD: LD 58% Lab 36% Grn 3% Con 0
Grn: Grn 87% Lab 4% LD 3% Con 1%
(Techne; 8-9 February; 1,631)
There will be lots of reciprocation where there's a marginal seat in which the LibDems are unquestionably 2nd to the Tories. But in a national poll on "who would you support?" it doesn't show up. Similarly, I suspect only some of the 9% of 2019 Labour voters now saying "Green" will actually refuse to vote Labour in a marginal where Labour is close to the Tories.
The bloc pattern is striking and a bit depressing for those of us who like dialogue. How many 2019 Tories will vote for a centre-left party? 9%. How many Lab/LibDem voters will vote Tory? 0%. That means that the election, if held tomorrow, would depend almost entirely on tactical voting and differential abstention.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
Our big stick is Trident. A stick we can never wield.
Mr. Jonathan, on that note, every government I can remember has reduced our armed forces' capability. The only department Labour didn't splurge spending on was Defence.
Partygate questionnaire recipients: If you ring round to co-ordinate your answers with fellow incredibly hard-working staff be careful you're not doing something which has a tendency to pervert the course of justice. https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1492410437274640384
Why on Earth would anyone actually reply to an emailed questionnaire? Would any of the lawyers here recommend a client reply to something like this?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, giving him the confidence, to reach this moment?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London, after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
And of course resourcing more to combat Russian cyber terrorism.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
Putin screwed up, not us.
He’s failed to develop his domestic economy, millions of his people live in poverty (poverty, not inequality), he wasted billions on the Olympics and the World Cup, he exports almost nothing but gas, Russia has had a terrible response to the pandemic, he’s attracted sanctions due to extra-judicial killings overseas, and needs his people to see some form of “success”.
I do wonder if Putin is worried what happens when the true level of Russia's Covid deaths is laid at his door.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
He pushed his luck on multiple occasions and no one stood up to him
Georgia? South Ossetia? Syria? Crimea? Donetsk?
Why would he stop?
How were we meant to “stand up to him” in Georgia or South Ossetia? Nuke Volgograd? Parachute into Red Square?
No one is going to do that. Certainly not you, or your sons and daughters, should you have them. Who would sacrifice their British child for “Donetsk”?
Kept our word to Georgia? Not allowed Nordstream 2?
I’m not a strategist.
But our lack of actions were read by him as weakness.
You are the one wringing your hands and saying “we’re weak and feeble we couldn’t have done anything”. Self hatred?
What matters is not who she is or what she's doing, but whether her customers are happy.
When I was younger and living in Edinburgh, I worked as a waiter in a steakhouse. Apparently someone had been murdered in the upstairs flat few years back, before the current restaurant opened, and from day one there were strange apparitions, things moving on their own, lights flicking on and off. Customers noticed and it was affecting business. I had a friend, someone I've now lost touch with, who was into the spiritual arts and when I told her about what was happening at work she was really confident she could help. The manager was really sceptical, but I brought her in to chat and she convinced him. After the place closed one evening she did some weird mumbo-jumbo, burned some sage and other strange stuff. And from that day on, the flickering lights stopped, the moving objects moved no more. Nobody saw any more ghosts.
Now, it's not for me to say whether that steakhouse was really haunted, but even the most sceptical of the staff and management agree that it was a rare job well done by a medium
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
Our big stick is Trident. A stick we can never wield.
Maybe we needed a range of sticks. I fear that woeful underinvestment in defence was a factor in this. We forgot some important lessons. The economic aspect is important. With China’s backing, Putin doesn’t have to worry about sanctions quite as much.
Morning all, let's hope the world hasn't turned to cinders this time next week, so we can all discuss HYUFD 's threshold for finally withdrawing support for Boris, rather than dusting off 1950's "Protect and Survive" manuals.
Somewhat more realistically, any military movement against centres of population in Ukraine would be a catastrophe.
Funny how the No1 target in the United Kingdom is just outside Glasgow. Very odd that they didn’t locate the 200 nuclear warheads in southern England. I wonder why?
Geology? Access to the North Atlantic? Employment opportunities for the locals?
Odd how the Nats ignore that where we actually manufacture the nukes is 50 miles from London.....but that doesn't fit the victim narrative.
Partygate questionnaire recipients: If you ring round to co-ordinate your answers with fellow incredibly hard-working staff be careful you're not doing something which has a tendency to pervert the course of justice. https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1492410437274640384
Why on Earth would anyone actually reply to an emailed questionnaire? Would any of the lawyers here recommend a client reply to something like this?
Don’t talk to the police, ever.
Because the subtext is we'll drag you down the station if you don't comply
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
Our big stick is Trident. A stick we can never wield.
Some times a big stick standing quietly on the corner is sufficient
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
I think you are being unfair to Jonathan. He is not blaming us for Putin invading Ukraine, if he does, but what, if anything, we could have done differently in the past to prevent this. Currently on BBC news they are discussing just this.
Fair enough. Perhaps I was a bit snappy. Sorry Jonathan. I also forget that it is about 8am there and cold
I am enjoying an exceptionally pleasant lunch
Generous of you Leon. Even though I responded to you I can understand your reaction as clearly Putin is the villain here and not us.
" ...... I do not find The Hanged Man. Fear death by water. I see crowds of people, walking round in a ring. Thank you. If you see my sister, Tell her I bring the horoscope myself: One must be so careful these days."
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
Our big stick is Trident. A stick we can never wield.
Some times a big stick standing quietly on the corner is sufficient
How is our having Trident impacting on a US/NATO response to Ukraine.
"Yay guys, we just nuked Volgograd! Hope that helps the combined effort at applying pressure..."
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
I don't know about "we". But in the spirit of honest enquiry I'd like to understand something. I despise Russian expansionist nationalism just as I despise it in anyone else, and I don't have any sympathy with Putin throwing his weight around, let alone invading. But I don't understand the Ukrainian position either. They agreed to regional autonomy for the pro-Russian east and fresh elections there, but are now reluctant as they don't want an additional bunch of pro-Putin MPs in Kiev. OK, but what what they like to happen apart from Putin buggering off? Presumably not an unrepresented eastern sector forever. Perhaps a confederation where neither part gets to run the other, or what?
Partygate questionnaire recipients: If you ring round to co-ordinate your answers with fellow incredibly hard-working staff be careful you're not doing something which has a tendency to pervert the course of justice. https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1492410437274640384
Why on Earth would anyone actually reply to an emailed questionnaire? Would any of the lawyers here recommend a client reply to something like this?
Don’t talk to the police, ever.
Because the subtext is we'll drag you down the station if you don't comply
Which is what they should be doing in the first place.
If they want to talk to people as suspects or witnesses, then make appointments and let them turn up with their lawyer.
They’re fishing for evidence, and hoping people will incriminate themselves and others.
They are also spending a huge amount of time and resources on what are very minor matters, for mostly political reasons.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
Yugoslavia. Nato bombed the wossname out of the Serbs and Russia was powerless to defend their fellow Slavs. That is why Putin embarked on a massive revamp of his country's armed forces: training; tactics and weapons.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
No need to apologise. It’s just an argument. Not personal. Who doesn’t enjoy being roasted by Leon?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
I think what has changed is Russian rearmament. They have a lot of new equipment and are re-energised. They tested some of the new stuff in Syria too.
The second factor was the near toppling of the Belarus government 2 years ago. Indeed, one of the sidegames of the current crisis is the Russian occupation of Belarus, is now achieved. There won't be anything like the same resistance movement resurfacing there.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
I don't know about "we". But in the spirit of honest enquiry I'd like to understand something. I despise Russian expansionist nationalism just as I despise it in anyone else, and I don't have any sympathy with Putin throwing his weight around, let alone invading. But I don't understand the Ukrainian position either. They agreed to regional autonomy for the pro-Russian east and fresh elections there, but are now reluctant as they don't want an additional bunch of pro-Putin MPs in Kiev. OK, but what what they like to happen apart from Putin buggering off? Presumably not an unrepresented eastern sector forever. Perhaps a confederation where neither part gets to run the other, or what?
Ukraine signed up to the Minsk Accords to buy themselves time with absolutely no intention of honouring them. See also: Johnson and the 6 counties.
The latest Alastair Meeks, on AI. I don't agree with this one (I care about beings that can experience joy and suffering, I don't care about the feelings of artificial constructs), but it's interesting, as always!
Interesting as always. But Mr Meeks, I think, misses out the hard question. Can we create beings which not only have the simulacra of knowledge and intelligence (as my copy of War and Peace or my computer or the internet does) but have the consciousness to be aware that they do so.
If they don't then AI machines are glorified machines. But if in fact consciousness is an emergent property of matter in particular configurations (eg the way our brains are formed) the matter is different. In particular the artificial manufacture of consciousness machines is open to the same objections as cloning humans.
But the issue of how consciousness arises and what it is is both heavily contested, and surrounded by almost total ignorance. Which is why it is called by philosophers 'the hard question'.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
Partygate questionnaire recipients: If you ring round to co-ordinate your answers with fellow incredibly hard-working staff be careful you're not doing something which has a tendency to pervert the course of justice. https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1492410437274640384
Why on Earth would anyone actually reply to an emailed questionnaire? Would any of the lawyers here recommend a client reply to something like this?
Don’t talk to the police, ever.
Because the subtext is we'll drag you down the station if you don't comply
Which is what they should be doing in the first place.
If they want to talk to people as suspects or witnesses, then make appointments and let them turn up with their lawyer.
They’re fishing for evidence, and hoping people will incriminate themselves and others.
They are also spending a huge amount of time and resources on what are very minor matters, for mostly political reasons.
If you hope people will incriminate themselves you are much better off interviewing them face to face. And I cannot imagine the emails say they must be answered under exam conditions with no consultation of lawyers. So it's not the most cunning trap ever
Partygate questionnaire recipients: If you ring round to co-ordinate your answers with fellow incredibly hard-working staff be careful you're not doing something which has a tendency to pervert the course of justice. https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1492410437274640384
Why on Earth would anyone actually reply to an emailed questionnaire? Would any of the lawyers here recommend a client reply to something like this?
Don’t talk to the police, ever.
Because the subtext is we'll drag you down the station if you don't comply
Which is what they should be doing in the first place.
If they want to talk to people as suspects or witnesses, then make appointments and let them turn up with their lawyer.
They’re fishing for evidence, and hoping people will incriminate themselves and others.
They are also spending a huge amount of time and resources on what are very minor matters, for mostly political reasons.
Agree with that, apart from '..the political reasons.' They are truly between a rock and a hard place, damned if they do and damned if they don't.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
He pushed his luck on multiple occasions and no one stood up to him
Georgia? South Ossetia? Syria? Crimea? Donetsk?
Why would he stop?
His intervention in Syria helped stem the tide of the rise of ISIS. For that we should be appreciative. For the others we just stood aside and let him
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Russia is NOT a great power. It’s a corrupt and fragile kleptocracy. It has a hollowed out and vulnerable economy which is dependent on fossil fuels and a declining population.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
Mr. Jonathan, on that note, every government I can remember has reduced our armed forces' capability. The only department Labour didn't splurge spending on was Defence.
Def nice spending rose under Labour, 97-2010. Although the cuts from the mid eighties to the late nineties under the Tories were so severe, Labour weren't able to totally reverse them. https://ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/fiscal_facts/defence
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
Our big stick is Trident. A stick we can never wield.
Maybe we needed a range of sticks. I fear that woeful underinvestment in defence was a factor in this. We forgot some important lessons. The economic aspect is important. With China’s backing, Putin doesn’t have to worry about sanctions quite as much.
"Woeful underinvestment in defence" = Decades of Tory defence cuts.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
Our big stick is Trident. A stick we can never wield.
Some times a big stick standing quietly on the corner is sufficient
How is our having Trident impacting on a US/NATO response to Ukraine.
"Yay guys, we just nuked Volgograd! Hope that helps the combined effort at applying pressure..."
If Ukraine still had nukes do think Russia would be behaving like this?
Dearie dearie me. Con MPs really are a spineless bunch.
Not actually true and malicious of the police
“Equivalent to being interviewed under caution” means “not being interviewed under caution”.
But the media runs with a different story which is not actually true.
For Johnson- who made a media career largely out of stories that were not strictly true- to be laid low by a story that is not strictly true- would be an elegant end to this fable.
You’re being too kind. He’s made a career through lying through his teeth, and been sacked for his mendacity.
There are numerous damning statements in the public sphere from former employers and schoolmasters. The man is a disgrace. He couldn’t obtain a position manning the till at Asda if the HR department saw his references. But the Tory Party thought he was just what they needed.
All true, and a good reason for the Conservative Party to go to its room and think very hard about what it's done over the last few years and come back when it's ready to be more truthful and make better choices.
As for Johnson, one should try hard not to speak ill of the dead. And he is (politically) dead. Politicians don't come back from blowing trust like this. Even if the Met end up not charging or FPNing him. Even if the Conservatives (shorn of those prepared to stand up to Boris) keep him.
What we're seeing now is the instinctive flapping of a decapitated chicken. Unfortunately for all of us, this phase could last a couple of years
I can’t see the Tory party pandering to it that long. He’s toast and for all the frothing you get from some here and online about MPs being spineless etc etc I believe they are just biding their time for the optimum moment. When they tried to take May out she won the vote. They won’t make the mistake with Johnson.
Why so confident?
Noises from some in the Tory party, and the expectation that the MPs will realise just how bad the polling numbers are and the chances of turning it around are receding and I expect the catalyst for this to be the local elections which will be bleak. Also if he gets an FPN he is toast.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
At some point lefties will stop bla
Here we go again ...
I'm off. You once told me Leon to stick around, presumably because you thought you post interesting things but I find your incessant Brexit anti-leftie anti-woke diatribes exceptionally tedious. For an accomplished writer you aren't half stuck in a rut. I hope your new writing will be about something a lot more interesting. If you mention Brexit in it I'm going to ask your publisher to pulp.
Have a nice day.
It reminds me of a time I was having breakfast in the Russell Hotel and someone saw a mouse and quietly all the diners disappeared and all you were left with were half eaten croissants
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Russia is NOT a great power. It’s a corrupt and fragile kleptocracy. It has a hollowed out and vulnerable economy which is dependent on fossil fuels and a declining population.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
Russia is not a great power in economic terms, Russia is a great power in military terms.
The Russian military is the third most powerful in the world after the US and Chinese militaries. Hence NATO remains so vital to all NATO member states in Europe to keep Putin out and not moving beyond Ukraine
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
I don't know about "we". But in the spirit of honest enquiry I'd like to understand something. I despise Russian expansionist nationalism just as I despise it in anyone else, and I don't have any sympathy with Putin throwing his weight around, let alone invading. But I don't understand the Ukrainian position either. They agreed to regional autonomy for the pro-Russian east and fresh elections there, but are now reluctant as they don't want an additional bunch of pro-Putin MPs in Kiev. OK, but what what they like to happen apart from Putin buggering off? Presumably not an unrepresented eastern sector forever. Perhaps a confederation where neither part gets to run the other, or what?
The agreed to that under the threat of military invasion and annexation of a second part of their country.
Saw about half the Branagh remake of Death on the Nile this evening. Left the cinema roughly half way through, just couldn't do it. I slept through most of the first one but just couldn't nod off in this one.
The reviews have been 'meh'. But my wife has seen the Ustinov one a dozen times, so I'm seeing it tomorrow.
The Branagh DOTN suffers in comparison with the Ustinov version for being totally humourless. You’d have thought an actor like Branagh would understand the importance of the Porter’s scene from the Scottish play for example, but no. Branangh also seems to think it’s all about character, when with Christie it’s all about plot. It was always going to be tough topping a version with Bette Davis and Maggie Smith sparring and Angela Lansbury chewing the scenery and they don’t.
It was so dreadfully overwrought. You're never more than 30 seconds away from someone blubbing away about their tragic back story. And that takes so much time! We were what felt like 2 hours in before the deed was actually done.
His performance is just nothing. Whatever you may say about Finney, Ustinov and Suchet, they were all good enough actors to assume their chosen accent and then act through it. Branagh just seems to be making a Herculean effort not to sound like John Malkovich. Which he usually manages, but there's no room for any acting.
While we’re on these subjects - nukes, Ukraine and Scotland - the agony of Ukraine completely demolishes the CND/Sturgeon argument to scrap Trident. See here
Saw about half the Branagh remake of Death on the Nile this evening. Left the cinema roughly half way through, just couldn't do it. I slept through most of the first one but just couldn't nod off in this one.
The reviews have been 'meh'. But my wife has seen the Ustinov one a dozen times, so I'm seeing it tomorrow.
The Branagh DOTN suffers in comparison with the Ustinov version for being totally humourless.
Oh dear. His Orient Express was similarly extremely dull.
I thought it was well produced and well acted but hated the ending (so not really Branagh's fault) so will watch DOTN.
My issue was really that there are so many crime procedurals on tv that a movie adaption of such novels feels unnecessary, just a big budget 2 part episode. To really succeed it needs something extra - Knives Out was great as it has sufficient colour and humour to make it stand out from being just another murder mystery.
Mr. Jonathan, on that note, every government I can remember has reduced our armed forces' capability. The only department Labour didn't splurge spending on was Defence.
British armed Forces have been cut in personnel numbers by about 25% since 2010. Pretty soon we won't have enough to porter in pandemics or drive lorries to supermarkets.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
Genuine question, why is it the UK's fault this might be happening? Is it because Ukraine starts with UK? Does this make it our responsibility? Does this responsibility extend to other countries? Which ones?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is because Ireland is not in the Middle East or South America or anywhere else that has been on the sharp end of regime change?
Mr. James, spending matters but I did say capability. Also, a small rise is not a splurge, unlike the money thrown everywhere else (including half the rebate back to the EU).
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Putin is a Russian imperialist, and as mad as a March hare, I daresay he is quite content to leave the Kremlin feet first in a box as a Russian hero and patriot. How can one counter that attitude?
It's a shame James Bond is no longer with us. A covert operation to remove another rogue menace would have been right up his street.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
I would because China is an aggressive expansionist power, with a demonstrable record as such, and the UK isn't threatening Ireland, so I'd be concerned Ireland were under its thumb as China would have no real interest in its defence or welfare - just in intimidating the UK.
The two situations aren't remotely comparable: there's a massive difference between democratic nations clubbing together for their own defence in the face of potential non-democratic aggressors versus "belt & road" - so your whatabouttery falls flat I'm afraid.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
I don't think it is "us" that have screwed up, it is a combination of many factors. But I would say the main reason could be summarised as western naivety, and it is still much in evidence now.
The apparent weakness of the Western alliances might be a factor.
There's the Afghanistan debacle for a start, democracy in the US looking shaky, and the EU fragmenting. These things might encourage an opportunist.
I wonder also what pressure Putin is under internally.
The naivety was first that we could get away with quickly expanding NATO and the EU up to the border with Russia without consequence.
The second flaw was the idea that it is possible to negotiate with Russia without showing willingness to commit to measures beyond sanctions, ie military action. Putin just thinks - correctly - that he can act without any significant consequence.
Something like what is happening now became inevitable following the departure of Trump, who's unpredictablity was a deterrent. Putin knows that we will do nothing, we have already said as much. I think @MrEd said something similar yesterday.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
He pushed his luck on multiple occasions and no one stood up to him
Georgia? South Ossetia? Syria? Crimea? Donetsk?
Why would he stop?
How were we meant to “stand up to him” in Georgia or South Ossetia? Nuke Volgograd? Parachute into Red Square?
No one is going to do that. Certainly not you, or your sons and daughters, should you have them. Who would sacrifice their British child for “Donetsk”?
No one, but he barely seemed to even face a cross word and wages finger.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Russia is NOT a great power. It’s a corrupt and fragile kleptocracy. It has a hollowed out and vulnerable economy which is dependent on fossil fuels and a declining population.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
Russia is not a great power in economic terms, Russia is a great power in military terms.
The Russian military is the third most powerful in the world after the US and Chinese militaries. Hence NATO remains so vital to all NATO member states in Europe to keep Putin out and not moving beyond Ukraine
They have limited ability to project power. Lots of bodies and tanks. Makes them a regional power not a global one
The latest Alastair Meeks, on AI. I don't agree with this one (I care about beings that can experience joy and suffering, I don't care about the feelings of artificial constructs), but it's interesting, as always!
Interesting as always. But Mr Meeks, I think, misses out the hard question. Can we create beings which not only have the simulacra of knowledge and intelligence (as my copy of War and Peace or my computer or the internet does) but have the consciousness to be aware that they do so.
If they don't then AI machines are glorified machines. But if in fact consciousness is an emergent property of matter in particular configurations (eg the way our brains are formed) the matter is different. In particular the artificial manufacture of consciousness machines is open to the same objections as cloning humans.
But the issue of how consciousness arises and what it is is both heavily contested, and surrounded by almost total ignorance. Which is why it is called by philosophers 'the hard question'.
I'm far from convinced that AI is actually "AI". As far as I can tell they are just very fast and sophisticated super computers that are very good at processing huge quantities of data and doing analysis and pattern detection and representing that back in a more coherently human way through clever programming.
They are very far from self-learning or self-development, yet alone self-awareness.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
But it was your FIRST reaction. It’s OUR fault
“Somewhere along the line we screwed up”
We? We??? Who the fuck is “we”???
Me? You? Mike Smithson on an off day?
It’s absurd. This is now a crippling intellectual reflex. You guys thrive on self hatred and guilt, esp if that guilt can be slightly shifted to “someone more right wing than me”. Grow up
Leon with the greatest respect you are a fool. YOUR reaction was to talk about “our fault” and rant about lefties like a teenager trying to escape blame.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
Our big stick is Trident. A stick we can never wield.
Maybe we needed a range of sticks. I fear that woeful underinvestment in defence was a factor in this. We forgot some important lessons. The economic aspect is important. With China’s backing, Putin doesn’t have to worry about sanctions quite as much.
"Woeful underinvestment in defence" = Decades of Tory defence cuts.
Definitely a factor. I’ve never understood recent Conservative decisions on defence. Honestly I think it goes further. This country’s attitude towards defence and the armed forces is really weird. Very emotional and not remotely businesslike.
Why the fuck am I flying home tomorrow. I’m staring at the sunlit Indian Ocean from the verandah of a great British colonial Raj-era hotel. As flunkeys offer me weird free syllabubs that I do not want. Does it get better than that?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Putin is a Russian imperialist, and as mad as a March hare, I daresay he is quite content to leave the Kremlin feet first in a box as a Russian hero and patriot. How can one counter that attitude?
It's a shame James Bond is no longer with us. A covert operation to remove another rogue menace would have been right up his street.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Russia is NOT a great power. It’s a corrupt and fragile kleptocracy. It has a hollowed out and vulnerable economy which is dependent on fossil fuels and a declining population.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
Russia is not a great power in economic terms, Russia is a great power in military terms.
The Russian military is the third most powerful in the world after the US and Chinese militaries. Hence NATO remains so vital to all NATO member states in Europe to keep Putin out and not moving beyond Ukraine
They have limited ability to project power. Lots of bodies and tanks. Makes them a regional power not a global one
Yes well they are the strongest military power in Europe, that is our region
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is because Ireland is not in the Middle East or South America or anywhere else that has been on the sharp end of regime change?
Sorry, my unspoken assumption is that in either case the troops were there by the express invitation of the Irish. Obviously if Ireland were invaded by America, I would certainly not be happy about it.
Branagh is one of the most talented actors of our times, but he can't do Poirot and he insists on doing Poirot.
I used to love Agatha’s Poirot books (but can’t stand the Miss Marple ones). I consider ever single one of the tv and film adaptations to be dire. They’ve ruined the books for me.
I think Joan Hickman was ok but David Suchet *is* Poirot and there's no point anyone else trying.
Just as in real life no one person can be brilliant at every job neither can one talented actor play every conceivable character.
Yes, the Suchet interpretation of Poirot is just exceptional. I watched the Clapham Cook one recently, which was in the first bloc, and it is clear he gets the role from the very start. It does help that the regulars alongside him are also very good in their roles as well.
Joan Hickson as Miss Marple. She’s the best one I’ve seen. Less comic than others. But, for TV, she is really helped by excellent acting and production values.
Joan Hickson was Christie's own choice for the role.
David Suchet is amazing, but Finney and Ustinov are OK - the latter in particular is underrated in the role imo. Branagh has not got the chops for it, full stop. Not helped by a leaden script of course.
Why the fuck am I flying home tomorrow. I’m staring at the sunlit Indian Ocean from the verandah of a great British colonial Raj-era hotel. As flunkeys offer me weird free syllabubs that I do not want. Does it get better than that?
Because from the day after tomorrow you have to pay for yourself?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
I don't know about "we". But in the spirit of honest enquiry I'd like to understand something. I despise Russian expansionist nationalism just as I despise it in anyone else, and I don't have any sympathy with Putin throwing his weight around, let alone invading. But I don't understand the Ukrainian position either. They agreed to regional autonomy for the pro-Russian east and fresh elections there, but are now reluctant as they don't want an additional bunch of pro-Putin MPs in Kiev. OK, but what what they like to happen apart from Putin buggering off? Presumably not an unrepresented eastern sector forever. Perhaps a confederation where neither part gets to run the other, or what?
The agreed to that under the threat of military invasion and annexation of a second part of their country.
Yes, I am surprised the context of that agreement is so hard to grasp. It comes across as nascent both sidesism. Not quite there, but in that region.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
Genuine question, why is it the UK's fault this might be happening? Is it because Ukraine starts with UK? Does this make it our responsibility? Does this responsibility extend to other countries? Which ones?
I think we covered this. I’m not talking about fault, but we might have done to avoid this defeat for our foreign policy and security. It was not inevitable in my view. Somewhere we took our eye off the ball.
Why the fuck am I flying home tomorrow. I’m staring at the sunlit Indian Ocean from the verandah of a great British colonial Raj-era hotel. As flunkeys offer me weird free syllabubs that I do not want. Does it get better than that?
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Russia is NOT a great power. It’s a corrupt and fragile kleptocracy. It has a hollowed out and vulnerable economy which is dependent on fossil fuels and a declining population.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
Russia is not a great power in economic terms, Russia is a great power in military terms.
The Russian military is the third most powerful in the world after the US and Chinese militaries. Hence NATO remains so vital to all NATO member states in Europe to keep Putin out and not moving beyond Ukraine
They have limited ability to project power. Lots of bodies and tanks. Makes them a regional power not a global one
Yes well they are the strongest military power in Europe, that is our region
They are not a military threat to France of Germany or the UK. Old Soviet territories and at a stretch the Baltics and CEE yes.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is because Ireland is not in the Middle East or South America or anywhere else that has been on the sharp end of regime change?
Sorry, my unspoken assumption is that in either case the troops were there by the express invitation of the Irish. Obviously if Ireland were invaded by America, I would certainly not be happy about it.
Speaking of Ireland, President Biden's Irish heritage mother supposedly hated England so much she refused to even sleep in the same bed as the Queen had once slept in at hotel she was staying in
Why the fuck am I flying home tomorrow. I’m staring at the sunlit Indian Ocean from the verandah of a great British colonial Raj-era hotel. As flunkeys offer me weird free syllabubs that I do not want. Does it get better than that?
It has been delightfully sunny here. Whilst cold, there are hints of spring. That is joyous and touches the soul.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is because Ireland is not in the Middle East or South America or anywhere else that has been on the sharp end of regime change?
Sorry, my unspoken assumption is that in either case the troops were there by the express invitation of the Irish. Obviously if Ireland were invaded by America, I would certainly not be happy about it.
Speaking of Ireland, President Biden's Irish heritage mother supposedly hated England so much she refused to even sleep in the same bed as the Queen had once slept in at the White House
Why do people who quit from senior public sector jobs always seem to qualify for a payout? According to the Mail Dick is expecting to be paid the remainder of her 2 year contract amounting to something close to £500k https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10504449/Cressida-Dick-Sadiq-Khan-war-500-000-payoff-plus-160-000-year-pension.htm She has resigned. She might look to claim that she was constructively dismissed because one of her employers expressed a lack of trust and confidence in her. He might reply for very good reasons and do you want a list?
But it will probably be resolved by a very expensive deal which will be concealed for "confidentialty" reasons. Bah.
Putin is a Russian imperialist, and as mad as a March hare, I daresay he is quite content to leave the Kremlin feet first in a box as a Russian hero and patriot. How can one counter that attitude?
Putin serves at the pleasure of the 100 people who own 35% of the Russian economy. Completely fuck their economy and he'll be gone.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Russia is NOT a great power. It’s a corrupt and fragile kleptocracy. It has a hollowed out and vulnerable economy which is dependent on fossil fuels and a declining population.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
Russia is not a great power in economic terms, Russia is a great power in military terms.
The Russian military is the third most powerful in the world after the US and Chinese militaries. Hence NATO remains so vital to all NATO member states in Europe to keep Putin out and not moving beyond Ukraine
They have limited ability to project power. Lots of bodies and tanks. Makes them a regional power not a global one
Yes well they are the strongest military power in Europe, that is our region
They are not a military threat to France of Germany or the UK. Old Soviet territories and at a stretch the Baltics and CEE yes.
They are. Russia could beat the French, German or UK militaries one on one. Only the European NATO nations acting together can hold off Russia
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is because Ireland is not in the Middle East or South America or anywhere else that has been on the sharp end of regime change?
Sorry, my unspoken assumption is that in either case the troops were there by the express invitation of the Irish. Obviously if Ireland were invaded by America, I would certainly not be happy about it.
Speaking of Ireland, President Biden's Irish heritage mother supposedly hated England so much she refused to even sleep in the same bed as the Queen had once slept in at hotel she was staying in
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
I would because China is an aggressive expansionist power, with a demonstrable record as such, and the UK isn't threatening Ireland, so I'd be concerned Ireland were under its thumb as China would have no real interest in its defence or welfare - just in intimidating the UK.
The two situations aren't remotely comparable: there's a massive difference between democratic nations clubbing together for their own defence in the face of potential non-democratic aggressors versus "belt & road" - so your whatabouttery falls flat I'm afraid.
That sort of thing always thinks it is making such a clever point too, always with an unspoken 'aha!' In them. But things can be ostensibly similar if you break it down to the simplest points of comparison without being actually reasonably comparable in practice.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
I would because China is an aggressive expansionist power, with a demonstrable record as such, and the UK isn't threatening Ireland, so I'd be concerned Ireland were under its thumb as China would have no real interest in its defence or welfare - just in intimidating the UK.
The two situations aren't remotely comparable: there's a massive difference between democratic nations clubbing together for their own defence in the face of potential non-democratic aggressors versus "belt & road" - so your whatabouttery falls flat I'm afraid.
You don't think the US has a record as an aggressive expansionist power? There is a publicly available audio recording of the US representatives in Ukraine discussing between themselves who they are going to put in place as President there you know. Let's be real please.
Putin is a Russian imperialist, and as mad as a March hare, I daresay he is quite content to leave the Kremlin feet first in a box as a Russian hero and patriot. How can one counter that attitude?
Putin serves at the pleasure of the 100 people who own 35% of the Russian economy. Completely fuck their economy and he'll be gone.
Putin has arrested plenty of billionaires and is a billionaire himself anyway
Why do people who quit from senior public sector jobs always seem to qualify for a payout? According to the Mail Dick is expecting to be paid the remainder of her 2 year contract amounting to something close to £500k https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10504449/Cressida-Dick-Sadiq-Khan-war-500-000-payoff-plus-160-000-year-pension.htm She has resigned. She might look to claim that she was constructively dismissed because one of her employers expressed a lack of trust and confidence in her. He might reply for very good reasons and do you want a list?
But it will probably be resolved by a very expensive deal which will be concealed for "confidentialty" reasons. Bah.
Yes, I think most of us will know examples of people getting a quick payoff even after cocking up to save time and money if they challenge things.
The latest Alastair Meeks, on AI. I don't agree with this one (I care about beings that can experience joy and suffering, I don't care about the feelings of artificial constructs), but it's interesting, as always!
Interesting as always. But Mr Meeks, I think, misses out the hard question. Can we create beings which not only have the simulacra of knowledge and intelligence (as my copy of War and Peace or my computer or the internet does) but have the consciousness to be aware that they do so.
If they don't then AI machines are glorified machines. But if in fact consciousness is an emergent property of matter in particular configurations (eg the way our brains are formed) the matter is different. In particular the artificial manufacture of consciousness machines is open to the same objections as cloning humans.
But the issue of how consciousness arises and what it is is both heavily contested, and surrounded by almost total ignorance. Which is why it is called by philosophers 'the hard question'.
I'm far from convinced that AI is actually "AI". As far as I can tell they are just very fast and sophisticated super computers that are very good at processing huge quantities of data and doing analysis and pattern detection and representing that back in a more coherently human way through clever programming.
They are very far from self-learning or self-development, yet alone self-awareness.
Rather agree. As to 'rights', if they are conscious and aware AI could have intrinsic rights. I don't think we can create consciousness mechanically, but who knows. I am absolutely sure that we should not. The problem arises if and when we realise we have done it unaware.
If AI don't have awareness, then their rights are actually rights of others - like the right of 'The Girl with the pearl earring' not to be destroyed for fun is actually the right of humans metaphorically transferred.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is because Ireland is not in the Middle East or South America or anywhere else that has been on the sharp end of regime change?
Sorry, my unspoken assumption is that in either case the troops were there by the express invitation of the Irish. Obviously if Ireland were invaded by America, I would certainly not be happy about it.
Speaking of Ireland, President Biden's Irish heritage mother supposedly hated England so much she refused to even sleep in the same bed as the Queen had once slept in at the White House
My (Irish) mother refused to shake Prince Charles' hand when he visited the school at which she was Head of Music. She said he could pat her poodle (called Josh) instead so he did.
Putin is a Russian imperialist, and as mad as a March hare, I daresay he is quite content to leave the Kremlin feet first in a box as a Russian hero and patriot. How can one counter that attitude?
Putin serves at the pleasure of the 100 people who own 35% of the Russian economy. Completely fuck their economy and he'll be gone.
I'm guessing Russian Extinction Rebellion have a harder time of it from the authorities getting them off the gas key to their economy.
Horrifically poor voter retention for the Liberal Democrats. Lots of LDs planning on voting Labour, but no reciprocation.
2019 UK GE voters - how they’ll vote next time:
Con: Con 84% Lab 5% LD 3% Grn 1%
Lab: Lab 91% Grn 9% Con 0 LD 0
LD: LD 58% Lab 36% Grn 3% Con 0
Grn: Grn 87% Lab 4% LD 3% Con 1%
(Techne; 8-9 February; 1,631)
There will be lots of reciprocation where there's a marginal seat in which the LibDems are unquestionably 2nd to the Tories. But in a national poll on "who would you support?" it doesn't show up. Similarly, I suspect only some of the 9% of 2019 Labour voters now saying "Green" will actually refuse to vote Labour in a marginal where Labour is close to the Tories.
The bloc pattern is striking and a bit depressing for those of us who like dialogue. How many 2019 Tories will vote for a centre-left party? 9%. How many Lab/LibDem voters will vote Tory? 0%. That means that the election, if held tomorrow, would depend almost entirely on tactical voting and differential abstention.
Differential turnout absolutely critical. Looking likely a lot of soft Con voters will be reluctant to vote. And a lot of Lab and SNP who abstained last time might turn up. If they’re still on the Electoral Registers?
Why do people who quit from senior public sector jobs always seem to qualify for a payout? According to the Mail Dick is expecting to be paid the remainder of her 2 year contract amounting to something close to £500k https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10504449/Cressida-Dick-Sadiq-Khan-war-500-000-payoff-plus-160-000-year-pension.htm She has resigned. She might look to claim that she was constructively dismissed because one of her employers expressed a lack of trust and confidence in her. He might reply for very good reasons and do you want a list?
But it will probably be resolved by a very expensive deal which will be concealed for "confidentialty" reasons. Bah.
Same reason people in the private sector are compensated for "loss of office" (or at least the ones well above my paygrade). Because it is the boss class who write the contracts.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Give it a rest Leon. “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.” There will always be Barbarians at the gate. The trick is to have a gate and lock it.
One thing I've noticed that is quite common amongst some educated Westerners though is the argument about how we'd feel if a Russian military alliance expanded to the doorstep of the USA. Which is exactly the Kremlin line. The anachronistic 'spheres of influence' argument cuts across the self-determination of any country small or unlucky enough to be in the way.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
Would you care if Ireland entered into a military alliance with China and the PLAAF put a J-16 division into Casement?
If there were Chinese troops in Ireland, that would worry me a great deal. If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not. I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is because Ireland is not in the Middle East or South America or anywhere else that has been on the sharp end of regime change?
Sorry, my unspoken assumption is that in either case the troops were there by the express invitation of the Irish. Obviously if Ireland were invaded by America, I would certainly not be happy about it.
Speaking of Ireland, President Biden's Irish heritage mother supposedly hated England so much she refused to even sleep in the same bed as the Queen had once slept in at the White House
My (Irish) mother refused to shake Prince Charles' hand when he visited the school at which she was Head of Music. She said he could pat her poodle (called Josh) instead so he did.
The thing I would like to understand about this Ukraine situation is what changed. How did Putin come to the conclusion that war was possible and in his interests. Spool back 20 years and it would have been unthinkable.
Somewhere along the line we screwed up.
So, yet again, it’s OUR fault. Can’t it just be that we have a new breed of aggressive autocrats? Was Hitler OUR fault? Genghis Khan? The Roman Empire? The heat death of the Previous Universe?
At some point lefties will stop blaming whitey, the west, us, Britain, America, Israel, Western Europe, middle aged white men in particular, but I don’t expect this epiphany to happen anytime before the Chinese regime’s “Legal Enslavement of Whitey Act 2043”
Jonathan's point is a valid one that you have completely misunderstood.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, given him the confidence, to reach this point?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
I have now FORMALLY APOLOGISED to Jonathan for being a bit snippy. if he wants someone to blame (other than me) blame the Galle Face Hotel which has ill-advisedly gifted me a free stay with limitless free food and booze. Are they not aware of the risks?
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
Russia is NOT a great power. It’s a corrupt and fragile kleptocracy. It has a hollowed out and vulnerable economy which is dependent on fossil fuels and a declining population.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
Russia is not a great power in economic terms, Russia is a great power in military terms.
The Russian military is the third most powerful in the world after the US and Chinese militaries. Hence NATO remains so vital to all NATO member states in Europe to keep Putin out and not moving beyond Ukraine
They have limited ability to project power. Lots of bodies and tanks. Makes them a regional power not a global one
Yes well they are the strongest military power in Europe, that is our region
They are not a military threat to France of Germany or the UK. Old Soviet territories and at a stretch the Baltics and CEE yes.
They are. Russia could beat the French, German or UK militaries one on one. Only the European NATO nations acting together can hold off Russia
Russia is not going to invade Germany, France or the UK. They are not a threat.
Differential turnout absolutely critical. Looking likely a lot of soft Con voters will be reluctant to vote. And a lot of Lab and SNP who abstained last time might turn up. If they’re still on the Electoral Registers?
Agreed. I won in 1997 in Broxtowe primarily because Tory voters abstained - the number who crossed over to vote for me was small (though it actually got bigger after I'd been there for a while), and I believe that was true nationally too.
Horrifically poor voter retention for the Liberal Democrats. Lots of LDs planning on voting Labour, but no reciprocation.
2019 UK GE voters - how they’ll vote next time:
Con: Con 84% Lab 5% LD 3% Grn 1%
Lab: Lab 91% Grn 9% Con 0 LD 0
LD: LD 58% Lab 36% Grn 3% Con 0
Grn: Grn 87% Lab 4% LD 3% Con 1%
(Techne; 8-9 February; 1,631)
There will be lots of reciprocation where there's a marginal seat in which the LibDems are unquestionably 2nd to the Tories. But in a national poll on "who would you support?" it doesn't show up. Similarly, I suspect only some of the 9% of 2019 Labour voters now saying "Green" will actually refuse to vote Labour in a marginal where Labour is close to the Tories.
The bloc pattern is striking and a bit depressing for those of us who like dialogue. How many 2019 Tories will vote for a centre-left party? 9%. How many Lab/LibDem voters will vote Tory? 0%. That means that the election, if held tomorrow, would depend almost entirely on tactical voting and differential abstention.
Differential turnout absolutely critical. Looking likely a lot of soft Con voters will be reluctant to vote. And a lot of Lab and SNP who abstained last time might turn up. If they’re still on the Electoral Registers?
I think that 2019 was a particularly odd election. LD voters do tend to be more willing to vote tactically. The LD manifesto was the most anti-Brexit, and that obviously failed, but did up the vote. Chances are that those 2019 LDs switching back to Lab are the same anti-Brexit ones.
Why the fuck am I flying home tomorrow. I’m staring at the sunlit Indian Ocean from the verandah of a great British colonial Raj-era hotel. As flunkeys offer me weird free syllabubs that I do not want. Does it get better than that?
There’s a really easy way to not fly home tomorrow…
Comments
Thorough exposition of where legally we are now
Not good for Pig Dog
He’s failed to develop his domestic economy, millions of his people live in poverty (poverty, not inequality), he wasted billions on the Olympics and the World Cup, he exports almost nothing but gas, Russia has had a terrible response to the pandemic, he’s attracted sanctions due to extra-judicial killings overseas, and needs his people to see some form of “success”.
It may be a coincidence that the new waves of populism broke as the people who directly experienced WW2 left public life and then life itself, but the timing is suggestive.
How were we meant to “stand up to him” in Georgia or South Ossetia? Nuke Volgograd? Parachute into Red Square?
No one is going to do that. Certainly not you, or your sons and daughters, should you have them. Who would sacrifice their British child for “Donetsk”?
It is a given that Putin is an aggressive man with a complex about Russia’s status and recovering former glories. Old school politician.
It’s reasonable to argue the West has failed to contain him, in the way that the 1930s failed to contain Hitler.
That’s not self hatred; that’s asking sensible questions about what we could have done differently
There's the Afghanistan debacle for a start, democracy in the US looking shaky, and the EU fragmenting. These things might encourage an opportunist.
I wonder also what pressure Putin is under internally.
In my view, our security is our responsibility. No one else’s. We used to “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
"It is a given that Putin is an aggressive man with a complex about Russia’s status and recovering former glories. Old school politician."
That was Obama's take on the man - 'an old-fashioned Russian Nationalist".
I am enjoying an exceptionally pleasant lunch
The bloc pattern is striking and a bit depressing for those of us who like dialogue. How many 2019 Tories will vote for a centre-left party? 9%. How many Lab/LibDem voters will vote Tory? 0%. That means that the election, if held tomorrow, would depend almost entirely on tactical voting and differential abstention.
Don’t talk to the police, ever.
My interpretation of his point is how have we unwittingly empowered Putin, giving him the confidence, to reach this moment?
It's nothing to do with your racial fixation. It might be however to do with the traditional "World Policemen" doing little about Putin's escalating outrageous behaviour. Maybe sequestering property from the Putin shills who own London, after Salisbury, the Malaysian Airlines flight, and the invasion of Crimea, among other things might have focused minds.
And of course resourcing more to combat Russian cyber terrorism.
NATO is wholly defensive and doesn't conquer or annex territory by force; it's entirely rational for the Baltic States to join or exactly the same thing would have happened to them as has happened to Ukraine.
I’m not a strategist.
But our lack of actions were read by him as weakness.
You are the one wringing your hands and saying “we’re weak and feeble we couldn’t have done anything”. Self hatred?
When I was younger and living in Edinburgh, I worked as a waiter in a steakhouse. Apparently someone had been murdered in the upstairs flat few years back, before the current restaurant opened, and from day one there were strange apparitions, things moving on their own, lights flicking on and off. Customers noticed and it was affecting business.
I had a friend, someone I've now lost touch with, who was into the spiritual arts and when I told her about what was happening at work she was really confident she could help.
The manager was really sceptical, but I brought her in to chat and she convinced him. After the place closed one evening she did some weird mumbo-jumbo, burned some sage and other strange stuff. And from that day on, the flickering lights stopped, the moving objects moved no more. Nobody saw any more ghosts.
Now, it's not for me to say whether that steakhouse was really haunted, but even the most sceptical of the staff and management agree that it was a rare job well done by a medium
Superb BBC interview of Russian ambassador to UK demolishing Truss Moscow visit
In a way this is a good metaphor for our dealings with Putin, maybe. We offered him the all-you-can-eat curry buffet of ex-Soviet Republics and said Help Yourself, and have a beer as well (but the Baltics are like fine wines that carry a premium)
But, did we have much choice? I’m not sure. Russia is a great power with that intrinsic self belief and self confidence. It has a muscle memory of empire. I reckon we’ve done about as best we could with a Russia determined on expansion and with a clever and cunning military guy at the helm. We have contained it within the USSR as was
The time to stand up and physically fight will be if he he attacks NATO or - maybe - places outside the old Soviet Union
" ...... I do not find
The Hanged Man. Fear death by water.
I see crowds of people, walking round in a ring.
Thank you. If you see my sister,
Tell her I bring the horoscope myself:
One must be so careful these days."
"Yay guys, we just nuked Volgograd! Hope that helps the combined effort at applying pressure..."
If they want to talk to people as suspects or witnesses, then make appointments and let them turn up with their lawyer.
They’re fishing for evidence, and hoping people will incriminate themselves and others.
They are also spending a huge amount of time and resources on what are very minor matters, for mostly political reasons.
The second factor was the near toppling of the Belarus government 2 years ago. Indeed, one of the sidegames of the current crisis is the Russian occupation of Belarus, is now achieved. There won't be anything like the same resistance movement resurfacing there.
If they don't then AI machines are glorified machines. But if in fact consciousness is an emergent property of matter in particular configurations (eg the way our brains are formed) the matter is different. In particular the artificial manufacture of consciousness machines is open to the same objections as cloning humans.
But the issue of how consciousness arises and what it is is both heavily contested, and surrounded by almost total ignorance. Which is why it is called by philosophers 'the hard question'.
If there were America troops in Ireland, it would not.
I wonder if you can work out why I feel very differently about the two scenarios.
It is a regional power with serious strategic limitations imposed on it by geography.
Putin is throwing his weight around to gain internal domestic political advantage. But the whole thing is a house of cards.
The challenge is we can’t give up on Ukraine - it’s too important compared to a Georgia or a Syria. But failure isn’t an option for Putin. My concern is he misread the situation and overreached in his demands (perhaps as a negotiating tactic, perhaps because he thought he’d really get it). But the west (apart from Germany and France & Germany is coming into line) have stood firm… how does Putin backdown without losing his grip in Russia?
https://ifs.org.uk/tools_and_resources/fiscal_facts/defence
The Russian military is the third most powerful in the world after the US and Chinese militaries. Hence NATO remains so vital to all NATO member states in Europe to keep Putin out and not moving beyond Ukraine
His performance is just nothing. Whatever you may say about Finney, Ustinov and Suchet, they were all good enough actors to assume their chosen accent and then act through it. Branagh just seems to be making a Herculean effort not to sound like John Malkovich. Which he usually manages, but there's no room for any acting.
On the upside, the visuals are beautiful.
“Don’t give up your missiles!”
My issue was really that there are so many crime procedurals on tv that a movie adaption of such novels feels unnecessary, just a big budget 2 part episode. To really succeed it needs something extra - Knives Out was great as it has sufficient colour and humour to make it stand out from being just another murder mystery.
Is it because Ukraine starts with UK? Does this make it our responsibility?
Does this responsibility extend to other countries? Which ones?
It's a shame James Bond is no longer with us. A covert operation to remove another rogue menace would have been right up his street.
The two situations aren't remotely comparable: there's a massive difference between democratic nations clubbing together for their own defence in the face of potential non-democratic aggressors versus "belt & road" - so your whatabouttery falls flat I'm afraid.
The second flaw was the idea that it is possible to negotiate with Russia without showing willingness to commit to measures beyond sanctions, ie military action. Putin just thinks - correctly - that he can act without any significant consequence.
Something like what is happening now became inevitable following the departure of Trump, who's unpredictablity was a deterrent. Putin knows that we will do nothing, we have already said as much. I think @MrEd said something similar yesterday.
They are very far from self-learning or self-development, yet alone self-awareness.
David Suchet is amazing, but Finney and Ustinov are OK - the latter in particular is underrated in the role imo. Branagh has not got the chops for it, full stop. Not helped by a leaden script of course.
The lack of political support for increasing military capabilities is concerning.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10501769/Bidens-mother-Irish-descent-hated-England-chose-sleep-FLOOR.html
London in the Spring is hard to beat.
She has resigned. She might look to claim that she was constructively dismissed because one of her employers expressed a lack of trust and confidence in her. He might reply for very good reasons and do you want a list?
But it will probably be resolved by a very expensive deal which will be concealed for "confidentialty" reasons. Bah.
The Russians have seriously depleted their Far Eastern forces though.
If AI don't have awareness, then their rights are actually rights of others - like the right of 'The Girl with the pearl earring' not to be destroyed for fun is actually the right of humans metaphorically transferred.