Johnson has 15% lead over Sunak amongst CON voters as “best PM” – politicalbetting.com

kle4 said:

Gary_Burton said:

MrEd said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Johnson lead in a much-reduced voter pool needs to be considered in the light of how many 2019 Tories have been lost, but would return with Sunak.

I personally don't think many of those lost since 2019 are coming back if Boris leads the Tories into the next election. It will be a bloody hard sell on the doorstep.

Many (of us) left not only because of Boris but because he cleared out what we had regarded as the Cameroonian wing of the party. It left the party with the Dorries Rees-Moggs, Raabs et al as ascendant.

As it is often pointed out, the new 2019 Cons MPs all signed the Brexit pledge and the Cons are now more than ever a hard Brexit party. Of course Brexit is done (talking to you, @Leon ) but the character of the party is significantly different even from 2017.

Not to say that a change of leader wouldn't help and probably lead to personnel changes but the guts of the party I (we?) knew and liked have been removed.

No, it is not the party of R. A. Butler.

Butler was a Tory MP from 1929-65, during the entirety of which the UK was not even in the EEC.

Boris' economic policies are also closer to Macmillan's than Thatcher's

Huh? I never mentioned Europe.

Have you not come across "Butskellism" and the "Post War Consensus"? I don't believe Johnson would fit into any post-war consensus, except perhaps when he was Mayor of London, and that seems like a political lifetime ago. He is now a Trumpian populist.

P.S. Johnson's economic policies are closer to Dave Nellist's than Mrs Thatcher's.

Johnson is a big spender who wants to build more houses, his economic policies are closer to Macmillan and Butler's Tory Party than Thatcher's. Boris described himself as a 'Brexity Hezza' which is pretty accurate.

Obviously however he is not a socialist like Nellist though, he is not nationalising industries, is not raising income tax and inheritance tax and nor is he allowing unions to strike at will, nor is he abolishing Eton or Marlborough, which he and Macmillan and Butler attended. Nellist and Militant wanted to do all that. Boris also complains a six figure income is not even enough for him, Nellist only took the average wage as an MP.

Indeed after Thatcher in 1983 and 1987, the Tory leaders who have won the biggest general election majorities for their party since WW2 are Macmillan in 1959 and Boris in 2019

You've sold me on Dave Nellist. Coventry's finest! If only I lived in Erdington.

Even though Nellist’s views were slightly different from mine, I always respected that he took an average worker’s salary

I believe Nadia Whittome does that as well.

Never really saw the need, since being an MP is not being an average worker even if you eschew taking the full salary, but it is at least a significant gesture.

Nigelb said:

Two bits of good Covid news today in the UK.

First, adding another two weeks of ONS data means Covid’s infection fatality rate has now crossed below the "2x flu" line.

Latest IFR is roughly 60% higher than flu and still falling.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1492138139103768576

noneoftheabove said:

Nigelb said:

Two bits of good Covid news today in the UK.

First, adding another two weeks of ONS data means Covid’s infection fatality rate has now crossed below the "2x flu" line.

Latest IFR is roughly 60% higher than flu and still falling.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1492138139103768576

Which given the high proportion of unvaxxed in the covid fatality stats presumably means for the covid boosted flu would actually have a higher IFR than covid.

TOPPING said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

MrEd said:

On topic, I think that poll (if it’s a true reflection so caveat required) mirrors what a few of us having been saying for a while namely Sunak - and the whole “Dishy Rishi” thing - is over-proportionally appealing to the chattering classes who are very unlikely to vote Conservative in the first place.

I am not enthusiastic about him, but would return to the Conservatives (my natural political home) if he replaced The Clown.

I believe you need Hercules to clear out the Conservatives' Augean stables after Johnson has finally vacated. A period in opposition to remove the smell of corruption would be well deserved for the Conservative Party.

You could be right, but the thought of a bossy Labour government doesn't fill me with joy. My ideal is to have a genuine Conservative government that is keen on good governance with a reasonably plausible non-clownish leader.

You have an odd perception of what a Labour government would entail, Nigel.

And on another matter - I do hope you're exercising enough and getting your five a day?

Labour governments are always bossy. They like to tell people how to live their lives. Labour politicians are essentially instinctively bossy people who primarily look after those in the public sector. That doesn't necessarily mean all bad, and Labour has done some great things when in power, but I will always view them with great distrust. Would I trust Starmer more than The Clown, yes, most definitely. Would I vote Labour if The Clown is still PM, yes quite possibly

No idea whatsoever, what your other comment references tho.

Someone once described @kinabalu as being a poster who would swim out to sea and attach a hook personally to a fish before coming back to the shore and attempting to reel it in.

I'm sure his latter comments are the beginning of some long, tortuous, attempted "gotcha" enterprise.

SandyRentool said:

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...

"Lassa fever: Patient dies at Bedfordshire hospital"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-60353207

Nigelb said:

Two bits of good Covid news today in the UK.

First, adding another two weeks of ONS data means Covid’s infection fatality rate has now crossed below the "2x flu" line.

Latest IFR is roughly 60% higher than flu and still falling.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1492138139103768576

Nigelb said:

Interesting figures on world-wide rechargeable battery production.
https://insideevs.com/news/566626/global-xev-battery-market-2021/

Korean companies have about 30% of the market, Japanese 15%, and Chinese most of the rest.

Burgessian said:

NickPalmer said:

Mexicanpete said:

MrEd said:

Gary_Burton said:

I think we have already seen the Tory nadir in polling where they bottomed out at 27% (which is unlikely to be repeated IMO) and the Labour lead seems to have stabilised at around 8% for the time being.

This polling doesn't shock me too much as Johnson must still have a lot of positive support in places like the Midlands and Essex as HYUFD has been arguing even if the new found Tory support in the north is quite a bit softer.

Labour’s major issue is that their polling seems to be entirely driven by perceptions of the Conservative. Labour’s core vote - currently - is probably not far off the Tories’ 30pc. Their issue is the natural default for softer voters is the Conservatives. Chances are, if the news becomes more positive, Labour’s lead reverses out quickly.

Hmmm. Stranger things have happened, I daresay. However for Johnson to recover personally he needs something positive to happen, like singlehandedly defeating the Russian army, or throwing some really right-on red meat to the hoi poloi. I have suggested capital punishment for nonces, but you might have some tastier red meat to offer. Otherwise I don't see it.

Labour's support is soft and the Conservative position post Johnson is hopeful, but for the economic catastrophe heading our way. I have always agreed with the notion that Governments lose elections, Oppositions don't win them, and at the moment Johnson is making a pretty good hand of confirming that idea.

Good discussion and I broadly agree. There is something of a slow race going on between Labour getting some concrete, attractive proposals well-known and the Conservatives sorting themselves out and saying "Now, forward with this!"

Labour has lots of low-profile policies but both the delays in internal policy process and the difficulty of oppositions in getting coverage are hampering the process - the closest we've got is probably scrapping VAT on energy, which ticks both the "help living standards" and "use Brexit constructively" boxes (though green voters purse their lips dubiously). But it still feels more like tactics than strategy.

The closest the Tories have got is Gove's levelling-up programme, which got a "not ambitious enough" reception rather than outright rejection, but was obscured by Partygate. I do think that the Tories are more than Labour in danger of a sense of drift and decline - people don't really expect the Opposition to be full of practical ideas for the next few months, but they notice if the Government isn't.

Meanwhile the LibDems have Labour's problem only more so, and arguably their strength in by-elections is masking the underlying issue that there aren't a lot of people who know what direction they're going. I doubt if their national poll ratings will improve until that becomes clearer.

Interesting and very plausible. All I would say is beware the economy.

There is a view that the Tories will soon be in trouble over the economy. This could well be. BUT - there is a but. Instinctively, when jobs and livelihoods seem at risk, people turn to the Conservatives. It's just a thing. The economy being first and foremost in people's mind is not necessarily going to be good for Starmer. Also, BJ, to be fair, always gives an impression of dynamism and getting things done. Starmer doesn't - not at all. I imagine this is why Dom considers him a dud.

And, the danger Labour could fall into, is if they blame the downturn on Brexit. Not a good way of winning back the Red Wall. The Tories, in any event, have the ready-made excuse of Covid. There's everything to play for.

Farooq said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_xP said:

My bit on Cressida Dick; whether it remotely matters if a prime minister breaks the law; and the general Absolute State of Things https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/11/farewell-cressida-dick-the-met-chief-only-interested-in-one-thing-ignoring-bad-coppers

She nicked the idea - Cressida moaning about fictional TV portrayals of the police - from PB. I wrote that as long ago as last June.

Not the first time PB headers get "borrowed" from by paid journalists.They could at least credit PB, OGH and his wonderful header writers. (Or share their fee .....?)

Humph ....😡

I have seen a few things in Hyde articles that have appeared on here, both articles and comments.

MightyAlex said:

As we're on Democracy. Tunisia's has just gone. Evaporated by enablers and wealthy neighbours. Seems like winter in Arabia now.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/tunisia-coup-saied-problems-desperation-mount

I'm sure the disappearances will start shortly.

ydoethur said:

Burgessian said:

NickPalmer said:

Mexicanpete said:

MrEd said:

Gary_Burton said:

I think we have already seen the Tory nadir in polling where they bottomed out at 27% (which is unlikely to be repeated IMO) and the Labour lead seems to have stabilised at around 8% for the time being.

This polling doesn't shock me too much as Johnson must still have a lot of positive support in places like the Midlands and Essex as HYUFD has been arguing even if the new found Tory support in the north is quite a bit softer.

Labour’s major issue is that their polling seems to be entirely driven by perceptions of the Conservative. Labour’s core vote - currently - is probably not far off the Tories’ 30pc. Their issue is the natural default for softer voters is the Conservatives. Chances are, if the news becomes more positive, Labour’s lead reverses out quickly.

Hmmm. Stranger things have happened, I daresay. However for Johnson to recover personally he needs something positive to happen, like singlehandedly defeating the Russian army, or throwing some really right-on red meat to the hoi poloi. I have suggested capital punishment for nonces, but you might have some tastier red meat to offer. Otherwise I don't see it.

Labour's support is soft and the Conservative position post Johnson is hopeful, but for the economic catastrophe heading our way. I have always agreed with the notion that Governments lose elections, Oppositions don't win them, and at the moment Johnson is making a pretty good hand of confirming that idea.

Good discussion and I broadly agree. There is something of a slow race going on between Labour getting some concrete, attractive proposals well-known and the Conservatives sorting themselves out and saying "Now, forward with this!"

Labour has lots of low-profile policies but both the delays in internal policy process and the difficulty of oppositions in getting coverage are hampering the process - the closest we've got is probably scrapping VAT on energy, which ticks both the "help living standards" and "use Brexit constructively" boxes (though green voters purse their lips dubiously). But it still feels more like tactics than strategy.

The closest the Tories have got is Gove's levelling-up programme, which got a "not ambitious enough" reception rather than outright rejection, but was obscured by Partygate. I do think that the Tories are more than Labour in danger of a sense of drift and decline - people don't really expect the Opposition to be full of practical ideas for the next few months, but they notice if the Government isn't.

Meanwhile the LibDems have Labour's problem only more so, and arguably their strength in by-elections is masking the underlying issue that there aren't a lot of people who know what direction they're going. I doubt if their national poll ratings will improve until that becomes clearer.

Interesting and very plausible. All I would say is beware the economy.

There is a view that the Tories will soon be in trouble over the economy. This could well be. BUT - there is a but. Instinctively, when jobs and livelihoods seem at risk, people turn to the Conservatives. It's just a thing. The economy being first and foremost in people's mind is not necessarily going to be good for Starmer. Also, BJ, to be fair, always gives an impression of dynamism and getting things done. Starmer doesn't - not at all. I imagine this is why Dom considers him a dud.

And, the danger Labour could fall into, is if they blame the downturn on Brexit. Not a good way of winning back the Red Wall. The Tories, in any event, have the ready-made excuse of Covid. There's everything to play for.

Shame really that both sides seem more interested in working out what will play to their political advantage than pondering what might be in the best interests of the country.

pm215 said:

Malmesbury said:

1) Cases are down - Case numbers don't mean anything
2) Hospitalisations are down - Better treatments - it's still there
3) Deaths are down - You are a Trumpian COVID denier. Plus Long COVID

On the subject of these three stats, is there a good explanation of why they have such completely different shapes in the national graphs? In particular why have deaths been a very slowly declining plateau that has now suddenly dropped precipitously, rather than looking more like the gradually-declining admissions graph?

(My tealeaf-based theory for the shapes of cases vs admissions is that the latter is following cases-in-over-60s, which didn't peak so high at Christmas -- less socializing than the under-30s -- and didn't have a January plateau -- which was mostly driven by kids in school. But as I say that's tealeaf and rune-reading, not evidence based.)

pm215 said:

Malmesbury said:

1) Cases are down - Case numbers don't mean anything
2) Hospitalisations are down - Better treatments - it's still there
3) Deaths are down - You are a Trumpian COVID denier. Plus Long COVID

On the subject of these three stats, is there a good explanation of why they have such completely different shapes in the national graphs? In particular why have deaths been a very slowly declining plateau that has now suddenly dropped precipitously, rather than looking more like the gradually-declining admissions graph?

(My tealeaf-based theory for the shapes of cases vs admissions is that the latter is following cases-in-over-60s, which didn't peak so high at Christmas -- less socializing than the under-30s -- and didn't have a January plateau -- which was mostly driven by kids in school. But as I say that's tealeaf and rune-reading, not evidence based.)

Burgessian said:

ydoethur said:

Burgessian said:

NickPalmer said:

Mexicanpete said:

MrEd said:

Gary_Burton said:

I think we have already seen the Tory nadir in polling where they bottomed out at 27% (which is unlikely to be repeated IMO) and the Labour lead seems to have stabilised at around 8% for the time being.

This polling doesn't shock me too much as Johnson must still have a lot of positive support in places like the Midlands and Essex as HYUFD has been arguing even if the new found Tory support in the north is quite a bit softer.

Labour’s major issue is that their polling seems to be entirely driven by perceptions of the Conservative. Labour’s core vote - currently - is probably not far off the Tories’ 30pc. Their issue is the natural default for softer voters is the Conservatives. Chances are, if the news becomes more positive, Labour’s lead reverses out quickly.

Hmmm. Stranger things have happened, I daresay. However for Johnson to recover personally he needs something positive to happen, like singlehandedly defeating the Russian army, or throwing some really right-on red meat to the hoi poloi. I have suggested capital punishment for nonces, but you might have some tastier red meat to offer. Otherwise I don't see it.

Labour's support is soft and the Conservative position post Johnson is hopeful, but for the economic catastrophe heading our way. I have always agreed with the notion that Governments lose elections, Oppositions don't win them, and at the moment Johnson is making a pretty good hand of confirming that idea.

Good discussion and I broadly agree. There is something of a slow race going on between Labour getting some concrete, attractive proposals well-known and the Conservatives sorting themselves out and saying "Now, forward with this!"

Labour has lots of low-profile policies but both the delays in internal policy process and the difficulty of oppositions in getting coverage are hampering the process - the closest we've got is probably scrapping VAT on energy, which ticks both the "help living standards" and "use Brexit constructively" boxes (though green voters purse their lips dubiously). But it still feels more like tactics than strategy.

The closest the Tories have got is Gove's levelling-up programme, which got a "not ambitious enough" reception rather than outright rejection, but was obscured by Partygate. I do think that the Tories are more than Labour in danger of a sense of drift and decline - people don't really expect the Opposition to be full of practical ideas for the next few months, but they notice if the Government isn't.

Meanwhile the LibDems have Labour's problem only more so, and arguably their strength in by-elections is masking the underlying issue that there aren't a lot of people who know what direction they're going. I doubt if their national poll ratings will improve until that becomes clearer.

Interesting and very plausible. All I would say is beware the economy.

There is a view that the Tories will soon be in trouble over the economy. This could well be. BUT - there is a but. Instinctively, when jobs and livelihoods seem at risk, people turn to the Conservatives. It's just a thing. The economy being first and foremost in people's mind is not necessarily going to be good for Starmer. Also, BJ, to be fair, always gives an impression of dynamism and getting things done. Starmer doesn't - not at all. I imagine this is why Dom considers him a dud.

And, the danger Labour could fall into, is if they blame the downturn on Brexit. Not a good way of winning back the Red Wall. The Tories, in any event, have the ready-made excuse of Covid. There's everything to play for.

Shame really that both sides seem more interested in working out what will play to their political advantage than pondering what might be in the best interests of the country.

I think we're trying to forecast what may happen electorally. The purpose of the site, no?

Andy_JS said:

Off topic

"Why I’ll miss the madness of Neighbours
The Aussie soap had a rich vein of surrealism under its sunny surface.
Daniel Raven"

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/02/10/why-ill-miss-the-madness-of-neighbours/

Interesting article for anyone who was addicted to the show in the late 80s / early 90s — such as about a third of the UK population, which was more than the entire population of Australia at the time.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Techne UK, 8-9 Feb (NB. UK totals)

Lab 41% (+1)
Con 33% (+1)
LD 9% (-1)
SNP 4% (-)
Green 6% (-)
Oth 7% (-1)

(changes from 1-2 Feb)

https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/R4-UK-2022-2-11-DATA.pdf

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Techne UK, 8-9 Feb (NB. UK totals)

Lab 41% (+1)
Con 33% (+1)
LD 9% (-1)
SNP 4% (-)
Green 6% (-)
Oth 7% (-1)

(changes from 1-2 Feb)

https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/R4-UK-2022-2-11-DATA.pdf

Andy_JS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Techne UK, 8-9 Feb (NB. UK totals)

Lab 41% (+1)
Con 33% (+1)
LD 9% (-1)
SNP 4% (-)
Green 6% (-)
Oth 7% (-1)

(changes from 1-2 Feb)

https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/R4-UK-2022-2-11-DATA.pdf

Everyone seems to be down.

Andy_JS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Techne UK, 8-9 Feb (NB. UK totals)

Lab 41% (+1)
Con 33% (+1)
LD 9% (-1)
SNP 4% (-)
Green 6% (-)
Oth 7% (-1)

(changes from 1-2 Feb)

https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/R4-UK-2022-2-11-DATA.pdf

Everyone seems to be down.

Andy_JS said:

"Labour MP Rosie Duffield: Keir Starmer no better than Jeremy Corbyn and it could make me defect
Canterbury MP accuses Labour leader of failing to tackle local activists who mounted harassment campaign"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/11/labour-mp-rosie-duffield-keir-starmer-no-better-jeremy-corbyn/

Leon said:

If I may be allowed a paternal boast. Gratz to older daughter who got almost straight 9s in her mock GCSEs, from English to geography to science

I have no idea what that means - 9?! - but apparently it’s A star.

Super bright. Well done lass

MarqueeMark said:

kinabalu said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Johnson lead in a much-reduced voter pool needs to be considered in the light of how many 2019 Tories have been lost, but would return with Sunak.

I personally don't think many of those lost since 2019 are coming back if Boris leads the Tories into the next election. It will be a bloody hard sell on the doorstep.

You were quite a big Johnson supporter as I recall and I'm interested in what's changed it for you. Was it Peppa Pig? Paterson? the NIC hike? The parties? The lying to parliament? Or was it a case of all of it acting cumulatively and drip drip to replace in your mind's eye what you imagined Boris Johnson to be with what he actually is?

Lying to Parliament. I simply do not believe his "there were no parties" line and so by convention, he must resign.

I believe he knows he is banged to rights, but refuses to go because he does not want to give Cummings the glee of getting his scalp.

Leon said:

US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

Leon said:

US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

Well that ensures no challenge to Boris likely until May.

Economic sanctions on Russia will follow and further military reinforcements sent by NATO to Poland and the Baltic States

A full scale Russian invasion throws EVERYTHING into confusion, abeyance and mayhem. Not least my planned trip to Odessa in March. Oh well

Leon said:

If I may be allowed a paternal boast. Gratz to older daughter who got almost straight 9s in her mock GCSEs, from English to geography to science

I have no idea what that means - 9?! - but apparently it’s A star.

Super bright. Well done lass

Northern_Al said:

MarqueeMark said:

kinabalu said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Johnson lead in a much-reduced voter pool needs to be considered in the light of how many 2019 Tories have been lost, but would return with Sunak.

I personally don't think many of those lost since 2019 are coming back if Boris leads the Tories into the next election. It will be a bloody hard sell on the doorstep.

You were quite a big Johnson supporter as I recall and I'm interested in what's changed it for you. Was it Peppa Pig? Paterson? the NIC hike? The parties? The lying to parliament? Or was it a case of all of it acting cumulatively and drip drip to replace in your mind's eye what you imagined Boris Johnson to be with what he actually is?

Lying to Parliament. I simply do not believe his "there were no parties" line and so by convention, he must resign.

I believe he knows he is banged to rights, but refuses to go because he does not want to give Cummings the glee of getting his scalp.

I agree. The thing is though, what on earth was he thinking of when all these social gatherings were taking place at No. 10, often at exactly the same time as he was delivering sombre briefings to the nation that we must avoid all unnecessary social interactions? I mean, he's not stupid. And even if he is, there must have been some folk around saying to him "PM, this really isn't a good idea". They can't have really believed that there'd be no leaks, whether from Cummings or elsewhere. It defies belief.

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

If I may be allowed a paternal boast. Gratz to older daughter who got almost straight 9s in her mock GCSEs, from English to geography to science

I have no idea what that means - 9?! - but apparently it’s A star.

Super bright. Well done lass

An 8 is an A*. A 9 is an extra grade above that designed to distinguish the very brightest.

Awarding it however is rather more complex than 'this would be a 9 as it was a 9 last year.' I tend not to give out marks above an 8 in mocks, as a result.

Video here explains it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5RVOydPszQ

Bear in mind for many subjects this will only be the second year of using these grades - only in Maths and English did we get three series of exams before Covid hit.

But it's an impressive achievement. Congratulations to her.

NickPalmer said:

Leon said:

US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

They've been saying that for months. May be true, but still seems to me totally bonkers purely from the perspective of Putin's interest. The negatives seem to vastly outweigh the positives - ruined relations, largely hostile country, huge costs, sanctions vs some sort of nationalist gratification.

But I appreciate that Putin's mind may work in some mysteriously different way.

NickPalmer said:

Leon said:

US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

They've been saying that for months. May be true, but still seems to me totally bonkers purely from the perspective of Putin's interest. The negatives seem to vastly outweigh the positives - ruined relations, largely hostile country, huge costs, sanctions vs some sort of nationalist gratification.

But I appreciate that Putin's mind may work in some mysteriously different way.

NickPalmer said:

Leon said:

US BELIEVES PUTIN HAS DECIDED TO INVADE UKRAINE, EXPECT INVASION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK - NBC

They've been saying that for months. May be true, but still seems to me totally bonkers purely from the perspective of Putin's interest. The negatives seem to vastly outweigh the positives - ruined relations, largely hostile country, huge costs, sanctions vs some sort of nationalist gratification.

But I appreciate that Putin's mind may work in some mysteriously different way.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

franklyn said:

This cultural issues in banking and in the Met, discussed by Cyclefree, are very similar to those which are bringing the NHS to its knees. If you want to know more, do read my new book, LIFELINE. (The first chapter is free on Kindle).
https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=lifeline+Dr+Barry+Monk&crid=2XRKH17E60MIA&sprefix=lifeline+dr+barry+monk,aps,179&ref=nb_sb_noss

Read it; *think* I recommended it on pb before you did (to fit with today's theme).

Razedabode said:

That Russian news puts party gate into perspective.

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

If I may be allowed a paternal boast. Gratz to older daughter who got almost straight 9s in her mock GCSEs, from English to geography to science

I have no idea what that means - 9?! - but apparently it’s A star.

Super bright. Well done lass

An 8 is an A*. A 9 is an extra grade above that designed to distinguish the very brightest.

Awarding it however is rather more complex than 'this would be a 9 as it was a 9 last year.' I tend not to give out marks above an 8 in mocks, as a result.

Video here explains it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5RVOydPszQ

Bear in mind for many subjects this will only be the second year of using these grades - only in Maths and English did we get three series of exams before Covid hit.

But it's an impressive achievement. Congratulations to her.

She is exceptionally bright. She was reading complex Julian Barnes novels aged 12-13

What particularly delights me is that she got 8 in maths and 9 in science. We always knew she was highly articulate and literate, but it’s very gratifying to see she can do it on the other side of the brain

Just mocks, of course, so who knows. But nice. V nice

These aren't ordinary mocks. We're still braced for Covid disruption and these mocks are designed to be exam substitutes if necessary. So doing well in them is really important to her. You've every reason to be pleased. I just thought you might like some more info on how the grades work!

Razedabode said:

That Russian news puts party gate into perspective.

OK - I think we’re about to enter into a really hostile, unprecedented period since ww2. No idea how it will pan out.

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Johnson lead in a much-reduced voter pool needs to be considered in the light of how many 2019 Tories have been lost, but would return with Sunak.

I personally don't think many of those lost since 2019 are coming back if Boris leads the Tories into the next election. It will be a bloody hard sell on the doorstep.

An honest and probably correct assessment, I think.
I marked you down as a Tory to take notice of for betting purposes some time back.

ydoethur said:

Razedabode said:

That Russian news puts party gate into perspective.

OK - I think we’re about to enter into a really hostile, unprecedented period since ww2. No idea how it will pan out.

It depends on what Putin's planning to achieve.

If he tries to conquer all of Ukraine, he will almost certainly tie up enough of his army and the Belorussian army for long enough to destabilise the very fragile pro-Moscow regimes in Minsk and possibly also Nur Sultan and maybe other places too.

If he tries to annexe the Donbass, it's unlikely he could go far wrong although probably it would cause a serious financial hit to Russia in the short term.

The questions are, is he in charge, and is he sane? If the answer to either question is no...

Roger said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_xP said:

My bit on Cressida Dick; whether it remotely matters if a prime minister breaks the law; and the general Absolute State of Things https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/11/farewell-cressida-dick-the-met-chief-only-interested-in-one-thing-ignoring-bad-coppers

She nicked the idea - Cressida moaning about fictional TV portrayals of the police - from PB. I wrote that as long ago as last June.

Not the first time PB headers get "borrowed" from by paid journalists.They could at least credit PB, OGH and his wonderful header writers. (Or share their fee .....?)

Humph ....😡

Influencing journalists used to be the point of pb. Around 2010 I used to wonder if I was the only PBer who was not a CCHQ-sponsored astroturfer, especially on Wednesday lunchtimes when pb would be full of messages about David Cameron's triumph at PMQs, even when it was clear he'd been KO'd by the clunking great fist.

Talking of GCHQ-sponsored astroturfers what on earth has happened to Philip [Redacted]? The story so far.....

from being the most prolific poster since records began his output dried up. This coincided with Partygate.

He then returned in the guise of Bartholomew Roberts (wasn't that Thatcher's maiden name?) but with a much reduced output.

Either he REALLY was a GCHQ-sponsored astroturfer who was cleared out with the bathwater of Partygate or a genuine crazy propagandist who couldn't face seeing the man he considered the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill being revealed as a buffoon.