“Last week. I made clear to the Metropolitan Police Commissioner the scale of the change I believe is urgently required to rebuild the trust and confidence of Londoners in the Met and to root out the racism, sexism, homophobia, bullying, discrimination and misogyny that still exists. “I am not satisfied with the Commissioner’s response. “On being informed of this, Dame Cressida Dick has said she will be standing aside. It’s clear that the only way to start to deliver the scale of the change required is to have new leadership right at the top of the Metropolitan Police."
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
So as far as you're concerned Russia can invade Lithuania and Poland as well as Ukraine? Do you not think they will defend themselves?
We need to find diplomatic solutions. Hence talking about heavy sanctions and going after Russian money in the west. That can work - a lot of oligarchs that have influence.
But war? Lets assume that Russia takes Kiev. Are we going to war with Russia knowing at best that we get sucked into a mess and at worse we all get nuked? So very few of the conventional WWIII scenarios find a resolution without nukes being fired.
Dunno about you but I'd prefer not to get nuked. So lets go after Russian money as we are threatening. Problem is that we can't just make vague threats as the idiot Truss did - we need to actually propose international sanctions.
The sanctions are rolling into law as we type.
What happens when Russia takes half Ukraine, though?
What are you going to do when the remaining Western half of Ukraine opens the cooling ponds at the reactors? Say "no, that would be rude"?
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
The collapsed Kids Company charity was mismanaged, a watchdog has concluded.
The charity, set up by Camila Batmanghelidjh, folded in 2015 amid financial problems. A police investigation found no evidence of criminality or safeguarding failures.
A new report by the Charity Commission found Kids Company had repeatedly failed to pay tax and its workers.
Ex-trustees said they were pleased it found no basis for action to be taken but rejected the mismanagement finding.
Time to disband the Met, as they disbanded the RUC after the Troubles?
That was the plan I had for a thread the week after next.
Get Chris Patten to chair the review.
I have a nice range of chocolate teapots in mind to replace the Met.
No, think of the advantages
A chocolate teapot won't accidentally shoot Brazilian sparkies on the tube A chocolate teapot won't try and frame Cabinet Ministers A chocolate teapot won't be corrupt and stupid etc etc
And you'd also have chocolate.
What's not to like?
I bought a chocolate teapot for my brother one Christmas:
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
So as far as you're concerned Russia can invade Lithuania and Poland as well as Ukraine? Do you not think they will defend themselves?
We need to find diplomatic solutions. Hence talking about heavy sanctions and going after Russian money in the west. That can work - a lot of oligarchs that have influence.
But war? Lets assume that Russia takes Kiev. Are we going to war with Russia knowing at best that we get sucked into a mess and at worse we all get nuked? So very few of the conventional WWIII scenarios find a resolution without nukes being fired.
Dunno about you but I'd prefer not to get nuked. So lets go after Russian money as we are threatening. Problem is that we can't just make vague threats as the idiot Truss did - we need to actually propose international sanctions.
They have. SWIFT access terminated and Nordstream 2 cancelled
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
The Tories have two problems, and it is interesting to think about which is trickier. The obvious problem is that a Trumpian Tory party (as distinct from a popular or populist one) is unelectable; the other problem is that Labour is aiming directly at the traditional centre right voter - I am one - for whom a competent centrist Labour party (in coalition if necessary) is the only possible alternative to a Trumpist Tory.
That option is currently on the table. Lammy's ringing defence of NATO on C4 this evening is just one example.
A further Tory problem, if Labour can keep the loony fringe in its box, is that ATM the Tories are more divided and indecisive than Labour.
Of course if the left starts mouthing off again all bets are off.
The collapsed Kids Company charity was mismanaged, a watchdog has concluded.
The charity, set up by Camila Batmanghelidjh, folded in 2015 amid financial problems. A police investigation found no evidence of criminality or safeguarding failures.
A new report by the Charity Commission found Kids Company had repeatedly failed to pay tax and its workers.
Ex-trustees said they were pleased it found no basis for action to be taken but rejected the mismanagement finding.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.
Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.
Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.
He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.
Think of a medieval court.....
From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.
We may hope not. But it might be.
What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
This is true, however, nothing he has done so far seems to be beyond the established modus operandi of post Soviet (which has mainly been Putin) Russian foreign policy. Which is to dominate near neighbours and try to prevent any of the Soviet successor states joining NATO.
Which is what has been said many times before - "This guy plays by *these* rules"
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
It has nothing to do with it being OK. What China is doing in Hong Kong isn't OK. What Saudi Arabia is doing in Yemen isn't OK. What Mugabe has done in Zimbabwe isn't OK. There's a big difference between it being OK and it being sensible or warranted for the UK to seek to intervene militarily to stop it happening.
“Last week. I made clear to the Metropolitan Police Commissioner the scale of the change I believe is urgently required to rebuild the trust and confidence of Londoners in the Met and to root out the racism, sexism, homophobia, bullying, discrimination and misogyny that still exists. “I am not satisfied with the Commissioner’s response. “On being informed of this, Dame Cressida Dick has said she will be standing aside. It’s clear that the only way to start to deliver the scale of the change required is to have new leadership right at the top of the Metropolitan Police."
He was pretty good on this. Very clear, very careful (as you've illustrated). It really was something that could have blown up in his face.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.
Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.
Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.
He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.
Think of a medieval court.....
From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.
We may hope not. But it might be.
What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
I don't think modern Russia is as coherent as this, personally. The Siloviiki, from various accounts, are as much concerned with personal enrichment and short-term pragmatism, as they are with any long-term domestic, or global goals at all.
It seems to be an ad-hoc kleptocracy with a nationalist veneer. The cultural forces of conviction seem much weaker than in Erdogan's Turkey or Modi's India, for instance.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.
Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.
Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.
He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.
Think of a medieval court.....
From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.
We may hope not. But it might be.
What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
This is true, however, nothing he has done so far seems to be beyond the established modus operandi of post Soviet (which has mainly been Putin) Russian foreign policy. Which is to dominate near neighbours and try to prevent any of the Soviet successor states joining NATO.
Which is what has been said many times before - "This guy plays by *these* rules"
What if something has changed?
Speak softly and carry a big stick seems an applicable doctrine. Sadly successive leaders of the UK have chosen to speak loudly and carry a pencil.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.
Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.
Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.
He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.
Think of a medieval court.....
From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.
We may hope not. But it might be.
What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
I don't think modern Russia is as coherent as this, personally. The Siloviiki, from various accounts, are as much concerned with personal enrichment and short-term pragmatism, as they are with any long-term domestic or global goals at all.
It seems to be an ad-hoc kleptocracy with a nationalist veneer. The cultural forces of conviction seem much weaker than in Erdogan's Turkey or Modi's India, for instance.
They are united by being Greater Russian Nationalists, though. They genuinely seem to believe that they are the Strong Men required to lead the Russian people.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
It has nothing to do with it being OK. What China is doing in Hong Kong isn't OK. What Saudi Arabia is doing in Yemen isn't OK. What Mugabe has done in Zimbabwe isn't OK. There's a big difference between it being OK and it being sensible or warranted for the UK to seek to intervene militarily to stop it happening.
If we don’t respond to an invasion of a NATO member the west is done
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
You're talking about "the Europeans" in a way that excludes part of the EU.
The collapsed Kids Company charity was mismanaged, a watchdog has concluded.
The charity, set up by Camila Batmanghelidjh, folded in 2015 amid financial problems. A police investigation found no evidence of criminality or safeguarding failures.
A new report by the Charity Commission found Kids Company had repeatedly failed to pay tax and its workers.
Ex-trustees said they were pleased it found no basis for action to be taken but rejected the mismanagement finding.
Interesting response.
Several of them have fond it hard to get 1-day-a-year trustee gigs with the mismanagement thing hanging over them.
Apparently ,some stupid people think they are legally responsible for something they are legally responsible for....
Wasn’t he suggested last time there was a vacancy, but too many people said it would be the wrong approach? Those people, being those who benefit massively from not bringing in outsiders.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
Wasn’t he suggested last time there was a vacancy, but too many people said it would be the wrong approach? Those people, being those who benefit massively from not bringing in outsiders.
It's not serious - he is probably not interested these days.
Yes - even the suggestion was considered a bit of a declaration of war by the Met.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.
Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.
Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.
He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.
Think of a medieval court.....
From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.
We may hope not. But it might be.
What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
I don't think modern Russia is as coherent as this, personally. The Siloviiki, from various accounts, are as much concerned with personal enrichment and short-term pragmatism, as they are with any long-term domestic or global goals at all.
It seems to be an ad-hoc kleptocracy with a nationalist veneer. The cultural forces of conviction seem much weaker than in Erdogan's Turkey or Modi's India, for instance.
They are united by being Greater Russian Nationalists, though. They genuinely seem to believe that they are the Strong Men required to lead the Russian people.
Stalin was a career bandit.....
He was, but don't forget there were many layers of real communist conviction and systems backing him up, too.
The Russian populace at large, and also higher echelons, are nothing like as convinced of Russia's destiny now as the nomenclatura were then so convinced of that convenient stew of national-communist destiny.
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
Unfortunately, the discussion has become so polarised you either have to risk WW3 or be accused of "appeasing" Putin. A lot of that is hopefully for domestic audiences and the serious diplomats are doing their job in figuring out how to de-escalate this situation.
Liz Truss strutting around doing her best Margaret Thatcher may impress some but for serious people it's just embarrassing. I imagine Lavrov could barely stop himself laughing.
Instead of bluster and bravado, we should be establishing what it is Putin actually wants - I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine (which is a lot of risk for very little reward). There may be a deal to be done including some political recognition for Russian interests east of the Dniepr and a commitment Ukraine will never join NATO (Moldova is in a similar position).
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
It has nothing to do with it being OK. What China is doing in Hong Kong isn't OK. What Saudi Arabia is doing in Yemen isn't OK. What Mugabe has done in Zimbabwe isn't OK. There's a big difference between it being OK and it being sensible or warranted for the UK to seek to intervene militarily to stop it happening.
This. Even if we wanted to be the Big Bad and stand up to Russia, with what are we doing it? This isn't the cold war any more. We don't pose any kind of threat to Russia, they still pose a massive threat to us. By ourselves all we can really threaten him with is a strategic platform which would bring absolute destruction on ourselves.
To be serious, one thing that the new candidate has to be is appointed form totally outside the Met. Never even served in it. So they can do a complete reset of a force that's clearly become insular, complacent and absolutely corrupt from top to bottom.
If that means appointing from outside the UK that's fine.
Although I wonder if Drew Harris might be persuaded to cross the Irish Sea. He's British, after all, and has been making the right noises in a very similar situation at the Garda:
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
Unfortunately, the discussion has become so polarised you either have to risk WW3 or be accused of "appeasing" Putin. A lot of that is hopefully for domestic audiences and the serious diplomats are doing their job in figuring out how to de-escalate this situation.
Liz Truss strutting around doing her best Margaret Thatcher may impress some but for serious people it's just embarrassing. I imagine Lavrov could barely stop himself laughing.
Instead of bluster and bravado, we should be establishing what it is Putin actually wants - I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine (which is a lot of risk for very little reward). There may be a deal to be done including some political recognition for Russian interests east of the Dniepr and a commitment Ukraine will never join NATO (Moldova is in a similar position).
He wants the Minsk accords implemented. Which f*cks Ukraine and scares anyone else near Russia
After Truss's humiliation today even the very stupidest Tory MPs must see that not only is Johnson a laughing stock but it's spread to the whole party. Lavrov was grinning from ear to ear. He thinks he's dealing with Dell Boy and Rodney and who can blame him.
Humiliation? But I read on here that to point to her laughably bad performance and the disastrous impact it may have on UK-Russian relations at this critical juncture is unpatriotic. That we should be cheering on her crapfest like she is any good.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
NATO includes those American chaps. And they are massively in place in Baltics at the moment, with more arriving.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
You're talking about "the Europeans" in a way that excludes part of the EU.
Remember that I have stepped back from the table as a player and taken a top down view. To Russia that is exactly how they see it. You have to understand the position and perspective of the other side to do any kind of negotiation.
We see new NATO states as European. Russia sees them as Russian and wants to stop others joining NATO. Whats more he has spent 20 years undermining NATO countries politically so that the population is ill-informed, cynical and apathetic.
So again, are people here in Britain in 2022 prepared to fight a general war against Russia because he threatens Lithuania? We all know the answer is no. So why pretend otherwise?
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
NATO includes those American chaps. And they are massively in place in Baltics at the moment, with more arriving.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
After Truss's humiliation today even the very stupidest Tory MPs must see that not only is Johnson a laughing stock but it's spread to the whole party. Lavrov was grinning from ear to ear. He thinks he's dealing with Dell Boy and Rodney and who can blame him.
Humiliation? But I read on here that to point to her laughably bad performance and the disastrous impact it may have on UK-Russian relations at this critical juncture is unpatriotic. That we should be cheering on her crapfest like she is any good.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
NATO includes those American chaps. And they are massively in place in Baltics at the moment, with more arriving.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
I want MOABs dropped soon.
Can the B-52s deliver the Mother Of All Bombs?
Probably - though that would require an overflight of the target. So probably would be done by a B-2.
Indeed. I saw a presentation about the effects of Brexit and they discussed the widening gap between "Brexit is going well" and "Brexit is going badly". They put it down to the fact that the "Brexit doing well" group is older and are dying and the "Brexit is bad" group are younger people coming of age at 18. No one is actually changing their minds....
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.
Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.
Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.
He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.
Think of a medieval court.....
From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.
We may hope not. But it might be.
What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
I don't think modern Russia is as coherent as this, personally. The Siloviiki, from various accounts, are as much concerned with personal enrichment and short-term pragmatism, as they are with any long-term domestic, or global goals at all.
It seems to be an ad-hoc kleptocracy with a nationalist veneer. The cultural forces of conviction seem much weaker than in Erdogan's Turkey or Modi's India, for instance.
I think that you cannot ignore the Rusian military-industrial complex. They have had a lot of investment and new toys over the last decade or so. They have a strong desire to test them out.
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
Unfortunately, the discussion has become so polarised you either have to risk WW3 or be accused of "appeasing" Putin. A lot of that is hopefully for domestic audiences and the serious diplomats are doing their job in figuring out how to de-escalate this situation.
Liz Truss strutting around doing her best Margaret Thatcher may impress some but for serious people it's just embarrassing. I imagine Lavrov could barely stop himself laughing.
Instead of bluster and bravado, we should be establishing what it is Putin actually wants - I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine (which is a lot of risk for very little reward). There may be a deal to be done including some political recognition for Russian interests east of the Dniepr and a commitment Ukraine will never join NATO (Moldova is in a similar position).
The problem is that various diplomatic attempts have been made and Putin is holding to the list of demands he made at the start. Which are simply "give me everything I want".
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
NATO includes those American chaps. And they are massively in place in Baltics at the moment, with more arriving.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
OK. So President Biden decides he is going to war with Russia. In ordinary times you would expect Americans to be all flag and country. But now? Are the people who think Biden stole the election and is the singular threat to their way of life going to back him getting tangled into a shooting war with Russia which could literally destroy their way of life? Over Litvokranya?
Putin has undermined the American psyche so badly with Trump that I'd question if Biden could carry public support for using said BUFFs against Russian forces.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
NATO includes those American chaps. And they are massively in place in Baltics at the moment, with more arriving.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
Then let the Americans do it. Perhaps we can join after a couple of years when a Russian ally launches a preemptive attack on our fleet.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
NATO includes those American chaps. And they are massively in place in Baltics at the moment, with more arriving.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
I want MOABs dropped soon.
Can the B-52s deliver the Mother Of All Bombs?
Probably - though that would require an overflight of the target. So probably would be done by a B-2.
The Skeets are scarier, in many ways.
Its a big difference fighting a war with uncontested air superiority, as per Iraq, and one where at the very least it is contested.
James Oh Brien @mrjamesob · 39m Cressida Dick never broke the law. Boris Johnson did. Guess which one just resigned.
I think that is a very bold claim indeed to make about Cressida Dick.
Indeed. And she's resigning because she has been forced to, it isn't some noble act. One may well be worse than the other, but it's possible to consider neither Dick nor Boris deserve to keep their positions.
I seem to have inadvertently tuned in to the local London news this evening.
Despite what the news channels may think, this story is irrelevant to the rest of the country.
Not completely. Head of the met is also responsible for counterterrorism, and sadly the terrorists think the whole U.K. is fair game. Plus there is a sense that while not in reality the case, the head of the met, is the highest police officer nationally.
I seem to have inadvertently tuned in to the local London news this evening.
Despite what the news channels may think, this story is irrelevant to the rest of the country.
Not true, actually. The Met has significant nationwide powers, including counterterrorism and protecting national consulates and missions. They also still provide much specialist support to smaller police forces.
We may wish it didn't affect us, but that's a different problem.
The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.
Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.
We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.
If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
Are you really saying it’s ok for Russia to invade Poland and/or Lithuania and we will ignore an Article 5 invocation?
I'm saying its not OK for Russia to invade anyone. I am not advocating a pro-Russian position or pro-Putin and I agree with Starmer's attack on the Stop The War wazzocks.
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
NATO includes those American chaps. And they are massively in place in Baltics at the moment, with more arriving.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
OK. So President Biden decides he is going to war with Russia. In ordinary times you would expect Americans to be all flag and country. But now? Are the people who think Biden stole the election and is the singular threat to their way of life going to back him getting tangled into a shooting war with Russia which could literally destroy their way of life? Over Litvokranya?
Putin has undermined the American psyche so badly with Trump that I'd question if Biden could carry public support for using said BUFFs against Russian forces.
No - he will wait for the Russians to fire the first shot.
American forces would only get directly involved if there is an attack on a NATO member. If there is such an attack, it would unify American politics.
So if Putin goes for the Baltics (see @Cicero) then the Americans will be in the game.
What's going on with the 18-24s? Surprisingly right wing at their tender age. Or just loads of them voting Green perhaps (Con number is higher but not that much higher than the 25-34s).
25-34 presumably the age group most frustrated by their inability to afford property.
Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.
Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.
This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?
If the company goes to the wall, the Sanjeev loses all his money. It doesn't mean everyone loses their jobs. It means that the adminstrators take over.
If the plants are fundamentally profitable at the operating level (and most are), then they will find new owners. The issue is that Sanjeev has debts of $10bn+ and has to make a $1bn interest payment each year.
And the plants don't throw off that much money in free cash flow, and he's over-leveraged, and no one wants to lend him more money.
My issue with Boris now is that I really, really don't want to walk away from a voting station having just voted for him. Better, Tory, candidates are available.
Yes he has to go for many reasons and whilst not the most important this is one of them - so that people who want to vote Tory at the next GE can do so without needing to dash home immediately for a long soapy shower.
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
Unfortunately, the discussion has become so polarised you either have to risk WW3 or be accused of "appeasing" Putin. A lot of that is hopefully for domestic audiences and the serious diplomats are doing their job in figuring out how to de-escalate this situation.
Liz Truss strutting around doing her best Margaret Thatcher may impress some but for serious people it's just embarrassing. I imagine Lavrov could barely stop himself laughing.
Instead of bluster and bravado, we should be establishing what it is Putin actually wants - I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine (which is a lot of risk for very little reward). There may be a deal to be done including some political recognition for Russian interests east of the Dniepr and a commitment Ukraine will never join NATO (Moldova is in a similar position).
"I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine"
Why are you sure? He's already done it twice in the last seven years - once by proxy.
Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.
Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.
This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?
If the company goes to the wall, the Sanjeev loses all his money. It doesn't mean everyone loses their jobs. It means that the adminstrators take over.
If the plants are fundamentally profitable at the operating level (and most are), then they will find new owners. The issue is that Sanjeev has debts of $10bn+ and has to make a $1bn interest payment each year.
And the plants don't throw off that much money in free cash flow, and he's over-leveraged, and no one wants to lend him more money.
Note that such a bankruptcy turned OneWeb from a dead turkey to a must-buy.
Sturgeon 13% Scottish Government 7% Anas Sarwar 1% Keir Starmer -10 Patrick Harvie -15 Alex Cole-Hamilton -15 Lorna Slater -15 Rishi Sunak -19 Douglas Ross -21 UK Government -50 Alex Salmond -62 Boris Johnson -62
What's going on with the 18-24s? Surprisingly right wing at their tender age. Or just loads of them voting Green perhaps (Con number is higher but not that much higher than the 25-34s).
25-34 presumably the age group most frustrated by their inability to afford property.
18-24yos still being influenced by their parents' political views, perhaps, and haven't yet realised the full extent of the scorched Earth Neoliberal hell-scape that the Tory party has created for them to live in. Nice to see that my own Gen X age bracket is still reliably left wing.
To put the Russia - NATO brinksmanship into context, take a step back from the table and look at the strategic overview. On one side of the table we have Russia. Essentially a dictatorship, Putin can do what he wants. On the other side we have Ukraine - not remotely as strong - and the NATO powers who are really not worried about Ukraine but more worried about NATO members in the Baltic.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
Unfortunately, the discussion has become so polarised you either have to risk WW3 or be accused of "appeasing" Putin. A lot of that is hopefully for domestic audiences and the serious diplomats are doing their job in figuring out how to de-escalate this situation.
Liz Truss strutting around doing her best Margaret Thatcher may impress some but for serious people it's just embarrassing. I imagine Lavrov could barely stop himself laughing.
Instead of bluster and bravado, we should be establishing what it is Putin actually wants - I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine (which is a lot of risk for very little reward). There may be a deal to be done including some political recognition for Russian interests east of the Dniepr and a commitment Ukraine will never join NATO (Moldova is in a similar position).
"I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine"
Why are you sure? He's already done it twice in the last seven years - once by proxy.
Indeed - it's like saying ex-PC Simon Harwood doesn't want to hit people.
Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.
Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.
This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?
If the company goes to the wall, the Sanjeev loses all his money. It doesn't mean everyone loses their jobs. It means that the adminstrators take over.
If the plants are fundamentally profitable at the operating level (and most are), then they will find new owners. The issue is that Sanjeev has debts of $10bn+ and has to make a $1bn interest payment each year.
And the plants don't throw off that much money in free cash flow, and he's over-leveraged, and no one wants to lend him more money.
Note that such a bankruptcy turned OneWeb from a dead turkey to a must-buy.
The plants without the debt.... yum.....
If we get that - great. But we have a proud track record of letting them fold and then close. Primary industry tends to be loss-making thanks to cheap production costs and subsidies elsewhere. So we can't rely on "they're really profitable".
What's going on with the 18-24s? Surprisingly right wing at their tender age. Or just loads of them voting Green perhaps (Con number is higher but not that much higher than the 25-34s).
25-34 presumably the age group most frustrated by their inability to afford property.
18-24yos still being influenced by their parents' political views, perhaps, and haven't yet realised the full extent of the scorched Earth Neoliberal hell-scape that the Tory party has created for them to live in. Nice to see that my own Gen X age bracket is still reliably left wing.
Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.
Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.
This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?
If the company goes to the wall, the Sanjeev loses all his money. It doesn't mean everyone loses their jobs. It means that the adminstrators take over.
If the plants are fundamentally profitable at the operating level (and most are), then they will find new owners. The issue is that Sanjeev has debts of $10bn+ and has to make a $1bn interest payment each year.
And the plants don't throw off that much money in free cash flow, and he's over-leveraged, and no one wants to lend him more money.
Note that such a bankruptcy turned OneWeb from a dead turkey to a must-buy.
The plants without the debt.... yum.....
Sale of British strategic asset to American private equity incoming.
What's going on with the 18-24s? Surprisingly right wing at their tender age. Or just loads of them voting Green perhaps (Con number is higher but not that much higher than the 25-34s).
25-34 presumably the age group most frustrated by their inability to afford property.
The most surprising group is the 55-64s, that's horrific for Boris. Labour approaching landslide territory based on those splits IMO.
Comments
“Last week. I made clear to the
Metropolitan Police Commissioner
the scale of the change I believe is
urgently required to rebuild the
trust and confidence of Londoners
in the Met and to root out the
racism, sexism, homophobia,
bullying, discrimination and
misogyny that still exists.
“I am not satisfied with the
Commissioner’s response.
“On being informed of this, Dame
Cressida Dick has said she will be
standing aside. It’s clear that the
only way to start to deliver the
scale of the change required is to
have new leadership right at the
top of the Metropolitan Police."
"Met transitioning after Dick is removed"
What happens when Russia takes half Ukraine, though?
What are you going to do when the remaining Western half of Ukraine opens the cooling ponds at the reactors? Say "no, that would be rude"?
They will have to satisfy Patel, Johnson and Khan.
Crikey!!! That's a tall call.
Khan nil knowledge of Dick?
The charity, set up by Camila Batmanghelidjh, folded in 2015 amid financial problems. A police investigation found no evidence of criminality or safeguarding failures.
A new report by the Charity Commission found Kids Company had repeatedly failed to pay tax and its workers.
Ex-trustees said they were pleased it found no basis for action to be taken but rejected the mismanagement finding.
(* Redfield & Wilton, 6th December)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-29126161
As many American cities are discovering, defunding the police leads to a massive rise in crime.
Essentially - the paramedics are getting better at stopping the stabbed kids dying before they get to hospital.
The advantages for Russia - its in their back yard so aside from the political claims on the area their supply chain to forces is simple, NATO are divided and relatively weak, the US President can huff but will he puff?
A united NATO - pledged to the defence of a non-NATO member in Russia's back yard - could make Putin at least pause for thought. But we don't have unity and resolve and we aren't likely to get it even if the next target is Lithuania.
Because when push comes to shove are the Europeans really going to throw their populations into the fire over that? In the Cold War they would have been fighting for their own survival against invading soviet forces - any breakout of nuclear war would have turned West Germany into molten glass. But here in 2022? They won't. And Putin knows it.
So the solution to this isn't fly a squadron of B52s in and make baseless threats of force. Its go after all the Russian money that's in our territory. You can't invade Ukraine and wherever you like without facing the wrath of the people who own the Russian state. Again, Putin has to pause for thought.
But stop making baseless cold war threats. We aren't going to risk nuclear annihilation over Ukraine and Putin knows it.
That option is currently on the table. Lammy's ringing defence of NATO on C4 this evening is just one example.
A further Tory problem, if Labour can keep the loony fringe in its box, is that ATM the Tories are more divided and indecisive than Labour.
Of course if the left starts mouthing off again all bets are off.
Mind you, mere murders don't seem to have been the trigger for her defenestration.
No. Shit. Sherlock.
What if something has changed?
It seems to be an ad-hoc kleptocracy with a nationalist veneer. The cultural forces of conviction seem much weaker than in Erdogan's Turkey or Modi's India, for instance.
Stalin was a career bandit.....
Apparently ,some stupid people think they are legally responsible for something they are legally responsible for....
But - realpolitik. During the actual cold war there was a very real chance that NATO would collapse at the moment of biggest pressure. The KGB knew this hence so much effort put into undermining various states by fostering links to the same Stop The War type wazzocks and Red Army Faction terrorism.
So if we got to Lithuania invoking Article 5 I do have to ask how NATO would react after a prolonged period of Russian interference in our societies. Are people here going to support a general war against Russia because Putin invaded Lithuania? To stand resolutely against the oppressor in a place they can't even spell as Russia start bombing Birmingham? Really?
What makes our position even weaker is that we don't even have the weaponry to repel them. Decades of defence cuts have gutted the British military. And once you wipe out the bits we have left, all that remains are strategic weapons. So very quickly your Article 5 war sees HM armed forces squished and only Trident left. Strategic weapons. Which if you use them means getting turned to large sheets of molten glass.
Sorry to put such a pessimistic / realpoltik perspective on this, but our militaristic threats are ridiculous and Putin knows it. If we had a scaled up military with actual offensive capabilities then maybe our posture looks different. But we have half an army, bits of an airforce, a Navy carriers without escorts or planes. And Trident.
Yes - even the suggestion was considered a bit of a declaration of war by the Met.
The Russian populace at large, and also higher echelons, are nothing like as convinced of Russia's destiny now as the nomenclatura were then so convinced of that convenient stew of national-communist destiny.
18-24s Lab 47% Con 20%
25-34s Lab 62% Con 17%
35-44s Lab 48% Con 25%
45-54s Lab 46% Con 29%
55-64s Lab 33% Con 35%
65s &+ Lab 28% Con 49%
Source: Redfield & Wilton Feb 7
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1491854196152360966?s=20&t=4KxVjrIqgqbK2JZmJSwiiw
Liz Truss strutting around doing her best Margaret Thatcher may impress some but for serious people it's just embarrassing. I imagine Lavrov could barely stop himself laughing.
Instead of bluster and bravado, we should be establishing what it is Putin actually wants - I'm sure he doesn't want to invade Ukraine (which is a lot of risk for very little reward). There may be a deal to be done including some political recognition for Russian interests east of the Dniepr and a commitment Ukraine will never join NATO (Moldova is in a similar position).
If that means appointing from outside the UK that's fine.
Although I wonder if Drew Harris might be persuaded to cross the Irish Sea. He's British, after all, and has been making the right noises in a very similar situation at the Garda:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/is-drew-harris-making-necessary-change-or-making-gardaí-paranoid-and-confused-1.4010284
For anyone who missed it, HYUFD only accepts two pollsters who were closest last time (IPSOS-Mori and Opinium). All the rest are now disregarded.
Except when it suits him, obvs.
NATO, together, can assemble enough conventional military power to repel an attack on the Baltic Republics.
The reason for the B-52s is probably to drop standoff containers carrying SUU-66/B - you can read up on what they did to an Iraqi division in 2003.
We see new NATO states as European. Russia sees them as Russian and wants to stop others joining NATO. Whats more he has spent 20 years undermining NATO countries politically so that the population is ill-informed, cynical and apathetic.
So again, are people here in Britain in 2022 prepared to fight a general war against Russia because he threatens Lithuania? We all know the answer is no. So why pretend otherwise?
Can the B-52s deliver the Mother Of All Bombs?
Guardian blog.
Genuine LOL.
The Skeets are scarier, in many ways.
@mrjamesob
·
39m
Cressida Dick never broke the law. Boris Johnson did. Guess which one just resigned.
Putin has undermined the American psyche so badly with Trump that I'd question if Biden could carry public support for using said BUFFs against Russian forces.
Despite what the news channels may think, this story is irrelevant to the rest of the country.
I expect it to be a cyberwar, at least initially.
We may wish it didn't affect us, but that's a different problem.
I should burn this laptop right?
https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1491869425708027910
American forces would only get directly involved if there is an attack on a NATO member. If there is such an attack, it would unify American politics.
So if Putin goes for the Baltics (see @Cicero) then the Americans will be in the game.
25-34 presumably the age group most frustrated by their inability to afford property.
If the plants are fundamentally profitable at the operating level (and most are), then they will find new owners. The issue is that Sanjeev has debts of $10bn+ and has to make a $1bn interest payment each year.
And the plants don't throw off that much money in free cash flow, and he's over-leveraged, and no one wants to lend him more money.
I give you 50/50 that you make it 1 year before they find you....
Alternatively make for LA and see if you can a bunch of ex-special forces guys to help you. I hear their pilot is a bit twitchy, so watch yourself.
Why are you sure? He's already done it twice in the last seven years - once by proxy.
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1491849486066491398
https://twitter.com/MisanthropeGirl/status/1491856012797779970
The plants without the debt.... yum.....
https://twitter.com/DavidRoe92/status/1491854100278956035
Huh? That’s nothing.
Sturgeon 13%
Scottish Government 7%
Anas Sarwar 1%
Keir Starmer -10
Patrick Harvie -15
Alex Cole-Hamilton -15
Lorna Slater -15
Rishi Sunak -19
Douglas Ross -21
UK Government -50
Alex Salmond -62
Boris Johnson -62
(Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman; 14-18 January; 1,004)
Well, it’s a theory.