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The polling evidence against Johnson mounts – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,808
edited February 2022 in General
imageThe polling evidence against Johnson mounts – politicalbetting.com

New Saanta-ComRes polling issued this evening has more bad news for Johnson who is still the occupant at Number 10.

Read the full story here

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    Khan Beats Dick
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334
    Unpopular said:

    Khan Beats Dick

    Dick is pulled out of hole.
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    Khan for PM.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
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    One of the first items in the new Met Commissioner’s inbox - decide whether or not to effectively call the Prime Minister a criminal. Good luck with that one.

    https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/status/1491850497086603270
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,794
    Time to disband the Met, as they disbanded the RUC after the Troubles?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,947
    My issue with Boris now is that I really, really don't want to walk away from a voting station having just voted for him. Better, Tory, candidates are available.
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    Looking forward to briefing wars between Sadiq Khan and Priti Patel as to who pulled the trigger.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    One of the first items in the new Met Commissioner’s inbox - decide whether or not to effectively call the Prime Minister a criminal. Good luck with that one.

    https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/status/1491850497086603270

    Well, since he's already admitted being a criminal I would have thought that one would be fairly easy.

    Deciding what the hell to do about all the criminals in the Met is the trick here.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,968
    Is Khan giving Dick the chop because of performance? Or is anyone going to argue for "skin in the game" being the motive? Do we think it'll make a vast difference to Boris's prospects of standing up firm against his recent troubles?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082
    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.
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    Sandpit said:

    Time to disband the Met, as they disbanded the RUC after the Troubles?

    That was the plan I had for a thread the week after next.

    Get Chris Patten to chair the review.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
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    Looking forward to briefing wars between Sadiq Khan and Priti Patel as to who pulled the trigger.

    Dick's statement makes clear it was Khan who pulled the trigger.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    It is inevitable.

    She will get a higher paid job, a golden parachute and a golden hello. All on the taxpayer.

    That's failure at her level in the world.
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    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Don't worry, we've got a massive Johnson to make fun of.
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    Sandpit said:

    Time to disband the Met, as they disbanded the RUC after the Troubles?

    The analogy does not really hold because there is not half the population calling for it, and in any case, it was as much a rebranding exercise in Northern Ireland.

    I'd be more afraid of Boris trying a power grab by moving various specialist units directly under the Home Office, or even Cabinet Office control.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,794
    Don’t let your arse hit the door on the way out.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,604
    Smart politics by Labour. Moments after recess.
    However. Am I alone in being annoyed that for a second time, the head of counter terror has been deposed by a politician over whom I exert no democratic control?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334
    Hmm. I note that the death of Jean Charles de Menezes and the rather pointed comments of the coroner's jury is not mentioned as one of the challenges she faced.

    Does she just not think about it?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082
    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
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    Farooq said:

    Is Khan giving Dick the chop because of performance? Or is anyone going to argue for "skin in the game" being the motive? Do we think it'll make a vast difference to Boris's prospects of standing up firm against his recent troubles?

    She is staying on for a short transition and I do not see this affecting the investigation

    Indeed , I really hope conservative mps act on return to the Commons, irrespective of the investigation and Sue Gray

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    Sandpit said:

    Time to disband the Met, as they disbanded the RUC after the Troubles?

    Yes this has to happen. A force that has been too bad for too long which really doesn't hold the confidence of the population or the politicians who oversee it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334
    dixiedean said:

    Smart politics by Labour. Moments after recess.
    However. Am I alone in being annoyed that for a second time, the head of counter terror has been deposed by a politician over whom I exert no democratic control?

    A good argument for separating the Met out from the functions of counterterrorism etc and giving them to a national police force under the control of the Home Office.

    Not that Dick was very good at counterterrorism. The one time she tried, her men shot somebody completely innocent.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584

    Sandpit said:

    Time to disband the Met, as they disbanded the RUC after the Troubles?

    That was the plan I had for a thread the week after next.

    Get Chris Patten to chair the review.
    I have a nice range of chocolate teapots in mind to replace the Met.

    No, think of the advantages

    A chocolate teapot won't accidentally shoot Brazilian sparkies on the tube
    A chocolate teapot won't try and frame Cabinet Ministers
    A chocolate teapot won't be corrupt and stupid
    etc etc

    And you'd also have chocolate.

    What's not to like?
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    "Khan Fires Dick" not quite up to "Truman Fires MacArthur" as a headline. Still good enough for govt work.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
    Well yes, but what her lack of talent or achievements? Aren't they afraid she might show them up inthat field?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Smart politics by Labour. Moments after recess.
    However. Am I alone in being annoyed that for a second time, the head of counter terror has been deposed by a politician over whom I exert no democratic control?

    A good argument for separating the Met out from the functions of counterterrorism etc and giving them to a national police force under the control of the Home Office.

    Not that Dick was very good at counterterrorism. The one time she tried, her men shot somebody completely innocent.
    Well, he was guilty of being a bit suntanned. And in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    "Constable Savage approves this message."
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Don't worry, we've got a massive Johnson to make fun of.
    For now! Let's hope the loss of Dick as a sturdy buttress won't fatally impair Johnson - it would be truly horrifying for innuendo fans to witness his end as well. :lol:
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,918
    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Don't worry, we've got a massive Johnson to make fun of.
    For now! Let's hope the loss of Dick as a sturdy buttress won't fatally impair Johnson - it would be truly horrifying for innuendo fans to witness his end as well. :lol:
    Johnson and Dick being buggered simultaneously for their many cockups is a Talbot Rothwell wet dream.
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    How odd. Running an incompetent operation that lets "the rapist" keep working as a cop and instead persecutes the women who protest against his crimes, accused of blatant favouritism and even corruption with who it investigates, seen as openly racist and sexist by large chunks of the population with evidence to back up their assertions. And having been told no confidence chooses to resign.

    People don't resign because their position is untenable. They work to make it MORE untenable and blame the people presenting the evidence.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
    edited February 2022
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
    Well yes, but what her lack of talent or achievements? Aren't they afraid she might show them up inthat field?
    No, no, no. That is the *point*

    If you are in the Senior Management Team and they start firing people in The Senior Management Team for being shit - well you are up next. So it is vital that she be re-hired immediately for more money.

    It's A Self Preservation Society.....

    I'm sorry, but I have to give you 1/10 for that piece of work...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334
    Cookie said:

    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?

    Johnson hasn't spent anything yet. The one major commitment was HS2 and they've cut the budget there. The IRP will never be delivered, because it is literally undeliverable, so that's worthless.

    So I'm not quite sure why you think anyone else would 'spend less.'
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    BREAKING: Va. deputy AG overseeing election issues resigns after The Washington Post uncovered Facebook posts by her claiming Jan. 6 rioters were "patriots" and the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump



    https://twitter.com/jjouvenal/status/1491842837595492353
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    Somewhat odd timing by Khan, it has to be said.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
    Well yes, but what her lack of talent or achievements? Aren't they afraid she might show them up inthat field?
    No, no, no. That is the *point*

    If you are in the Senior Management Team and they start firing people in The Senior Management Team for being shit - well you are up next. So it is vital that she be re-hired immediately for more money.

    It's A Self Preservation Society.....

    I'm sorry, but I have to give you 1/10 for that piece of work...
    I've been thinking about your earlier offer.

    In light of that post, Jupiter isn't quite far enough.

    Can we make it Alpha Centauri?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,256
    After Truss's humiliation today even the very stupidest Tory MPs must see that not only is Johnson a laughing stock but it's spread to the whole party. Lavrov was grinning from ear to ear. He thinks he's dealing with Dell Boy and Rodney and who can blame him.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,544
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Smart politics by Labour. Moments after recess.
    However. Am I alone in being annoyed that for a second time, the head of counter terror has been deposed by a politician over whom I exert no democratic control?

    A good argument for separating the Met out from the functions of counterterrorism etc and giving them to a national police force under the control of the Home Office.

    Not that Dick was very good at counterterrorism. The one time she tried, her men shot somebody completely innocent.
    You need to ask who up the food chain authorised that shooting.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,501
    edited February 2022
    ..
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
    Well yes, but what her lack of talent or achievements? Aren't they afraid she might show them up inthat field?
    True. But even the Britain's least talented and effective public functionaries have to acknowledge that there's nobody that can dissapoint quite like Dick.
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    Johnson is toxic to every who human who ever goes near him: item # 360

    PC Dick gone.

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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,968
    Farooq said:

    Is Khan giving Dick the chop because of performance? Or is anyone going to argue for "skin in the game" being the motive? Do we think it'll make a vast difference to Boris's prospects of standing up firm against his recent troubles?

    "for skin" and "vast difference", and not even a murmur of approval? You are all peasants!
    [flounces]
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Smart politics by Labour. Moments after recess.
    However. Am I alone in being annoyed that for a second time, the head of counter terror has been deposed by a politician over whom I exert no democratic control?

    A good argument for separating the Met out from the functions of counterterrorism etc and giving them to a national police force under the control of the Home Office.

    Not that Dick was very good at counterterrorism. The one time she tried, her men shot somebody completely innocent.
    You need to ask who up the food chain authorised that shooting.
    As Gold Commander, she did. I don't think that's ever been disputed.

    The more pertinent question is who organised the coverup, including the - ahem - implausible but suspiciously consistent answers officers gave at the inquest.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
    Well yes, but what her lack of talent or achievements? Aren't they afraid she might show them up inthat field?
    No, no, no. That is the *point*

    If you are in the Senior Management Team and they start firing people in The Senior Management Team for being shit - well you are up next. So it is vital that she be re-hired immediately for more money.

    It's A Self Preservation Society.....

    I'm sorry, but I have to give you 1/10 for that piece of work...
    I've been thinking about your earlier offer.

    In light of that post, Jupiter isn't quite far enough.

    Can we make it Alpha Centauri?
    The only problem is that I want to promise COD. So I would be telling old Elon that he'd have to wait 10,000 years for payment. Not sure that.... flies.

    How about we revise the offer to -

    2) 50% to deliver the entire DfE to extra-solar escape velocity, with a bonus for every extra 0.01% of C achieved.

    ??
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334
    Roger said:

    After Truss's humiliation today even the very stupidest Tory MPs must see that not only is Johnson a laughing stock but it's spread to the whole party. Lavrov was grinning from ear to ear. He thinks he's dealing with Dell Boy and Rodney and who can blame him.

    Bit harsh. Dell Boy and Rodney were way more honest and sophisticated than Putin.
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    Roger said:

    After Truss's humiliation today even the very stupidest Tory MPs must see that not only is Johnson a laughing stock but it's spread to the whole party. Lavrov was grinning from ear to ear. He thinks he's dealing with Dell Boy and Rodney and who can blame him.

    Humiliation? But I read on here that to point to her laughably bad performance and the disastrous impact it may have on UK-Russian relations at this critical juncture is unpatriotic. That we should be cheering on her crapfest like she is any good.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
    Well yes, but what her lack of talent or achievements? Aren't they afraid she might show them up inthat field?
    No, no, no. That is the *point*

    If you are in the Senior Management Team and they start firing people in The Senior Management Team for being shit - well you are up next. So it is vital that she be re-hired immediately for more money.

    It's A Self Preservation Society.....

    I'm sorry, but I have to give you 1/10 for that piece of work...
    I've been thinking about your earlier offer.

    In light of that post, Jupiter isn't quite far enough.

    Can we make it Alpha Centauri?
    The only problem is that I want to promise COD. So I would be telling old Elon that he'd have to wait 10,000 years for payment. Not sure that.... flies.

    How about we revise the offer to -

    2) 50% to deliver the entire DfE to extra-solar escape velocity, with a bonus for every extra 0.01% of C achieved.

    ??
    Deal.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334
    edited February 2022

    So, how do we get them to put @Cyclefree in charge of cleaning up the cesspit?

    We tell Johnson that she'll drop charges against him?

    Hopefully by the time he finds that the 'charges' we have in mind to be dropped against him are literally made of dynamite it'll be too late for him to change his mind...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,120
    I cannot see a VONC now until the local elections.

    If the Tories see heavy losses then Sunak's time may come
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,794

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Smart politics by Labour. Moments after recess.
    However. Am I alone in being annoyed that for a second time, the head of counter terror has been deposed by a politician over whom I exert no democratic control?

    A good argument for separating the Met out from the functions of counterterrorism etc and giving them to a national police force under the control of the Home Office.

    Not that Dick was very good at counterterrorism. The one time she tried, her men shot somebody completely innocent.
    You need to ask who up the food chain authorised that shooting.
    If it were a military operation abroad, rather than a police operation domestically, we know that the decision would have gone all the way up to the PM. Does make one wonder…
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Is Khan giving Dick the chop because of performance? Or is anyone going to argue for "skin in the game" being the motive? Do we think it'll make a vast difference to Boris's prospects of standing up firm against his recent troubles?

    "for skin" and "vast difference", and not even a murmur of approval? You are all peasants!
    [flounces]
    Please, this is a family political betting site.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sad for lovers of crude innuendo that we're seeing the end of Dick. Still, as others have said, it would be foolish to bet against Dick re-emerging in a prominent position.

    Surely you mean, 'it would be hard?'
    Despite the lack of any discernible talent or achievements, I suspect many civil service head honchos even as we speak are probably salivating at the prospect of taking on Dick.
    Well yes, but what her lack of talent or achievements? Aren't they afraid she might show them up inthat field?
    No, no, no. That is the *point*

    If you are in the Senior Management Team and they start firing people in The Senior Management Team for being shit - well you are up next. So it is vital that she be re-hired immediately for more money.

    It's A Self Preservation Society.....

    I'm sorry, but I have to give you 1/10 for that piece of work...
    I've been thinking about your earlier offer.

    In light of that post, Jupiter isn't quite far enough.

    Can we make it Alpha Centauri?
    The only problem is that I want to promise COD. So I would be telling old Elon that he'd have to wait 10,000 years for payment. Not sure that.... flies.

    How about we revise the offer to -

    2) 50% to deliver the entire DfE to extra-solar escape velocity, with a bonus for every extra 0.01% of C achieved.

    ??
    Deal.
    Right. So that is Civil Service Administration & Eduction sorted.

    Who else wants a job? We've got the High Inquisition & Gardening staffed....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,794

    Somewhat odd timing by Khan, it has to be said.

    Only a couple of months after her contract was extended. That would have been the obvious time to have done it.
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    In other news the threat to Liberty Steel should be a national issue - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/10/thousands-of-liberty-steel-jobs-at-risk-england-hmrc-winding-up-order

    Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.

    Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.

    This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334
    Sandpit said:

    Somewhat odd timing by Khan, it has to be said.

    Only a couple of months after her contract was extended. That would have been the obvious time to have done it.
    That should never have happened. It just should not.

    If I were Patel, I would be furious tonight. But equally it is her own stupid fault for not taking the initiative to get rid of Dick when she had the initiative.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,087
    HYUFD said:

    I cannot see a VONC now until the local elections.

    If the Tories see heavy losses then Sunak's time may come

    Good
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,334

    In other news the threat to Liberty Steel should be a national issue - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/10/thousands-of-liberty-steel-jobs-at-risk-england-hmrc-winding-up-order

    Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.

    Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.

    This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?

    Isn't it actually the government (well, HMRC) itself that's pursuing them? Or have I misread that?

    I agree it's a disaster, especially for Rotherham.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,918
    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?

    Johnson hasn't spent anything yet. The one major commitment was HS2 and they've cut the budget there. The IRP will never be delivered, because it is literally undeliverable, so that's worthless.

    So I'm not quite sure why you think anyone else would 'spend less.'
    It takes a bloody age to spend any money in infrastructure.
    My expectation is that the biggest levelling up spending this parliament will be on buses. Because you can spend on them quickly. There's already quite a lot of bus spending in the pipeline.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
    Cicero said:

    The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.

    Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.

    Sadly, yes.

    Sad because my step-mother remembers, in her words, the poor boys in St Petersburg (yes, but that is how she thinks of the place) in the late 80s. The ones without arms or legs.

    There will be many.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,194
    Dick's out
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,448
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    I cannot see a VONC now until the local elections.

    If the Tories see heavy losses then Sunak's time may come

    How do you make that connection?

    Dick was more likely to prop up Johnson. Her successor is more likely to want to make a point: distancing himself or herself from the whiff of corruption and cosying up.

    I'm wondering if Priti Patel has done this deliberately to make Johnson more exposed. (Whitehall had to approve Khan's decision.)
  • Options
    Cicero said:

    The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.

    Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.

    We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.

    If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584

    So, how do we get them to put @Cyclefree in charge of cleaning up the cesspit?

    Bribe them?
    Quite simple. Convince them that she is corrupt puppet. Once she is in place, with their enthusiastic support......

    Doesn't anyone else watch "The Blacklist"??
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,604
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?

    Johnson hasn't spent anything yet. The one major commitment was HS2 and they've cut the budget there. The IRP will never be delivered, because it is literally undeliverable, so that's worthless.

    So I'm not quite sure why you think anyone else would 'spend less.'
    It takes a bloody age to spend any money in infrastructure.
    My expectation is that the biggest levelling up spending this parliament will be on buses. Because you can spend on them quickly. There's already quite a lot of bus spending in the pipeline.
    Will any of that lead to cheaper fares?
  • Options

    Roger said:

    After Truss's humiliation today even the very stupidest Tory MPs must see that not only is Johnson a laughing stock but it's spread to the whole party. Lavrov was grinning from ear to ear. He thinks he's dealing with Dell Boy and Rodney and who can blame him.

    Humiliation? But I read on here that to point to her laughably bad performance and the disastrous impact it may have on UK-Russian relations at this critical juncture is unpatriotic. That we should be cheering on her crapfest like she is any good.
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1491850372016746504

    @MacaesBruno
    Bizarre to see prominent Brits praise Lavrov - the ultimate bore - just because they hate Brexit
    We're not praising Lavrov. We're condemning Truss. They are *both* shit. Its not either / or.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,544
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Smart politics by Labour. Moments after recess.
    However. Am I alone in being annoyed that for a second time, the head of counter terror has been deposed by a politician over whom I exert no democratic control?

    A good argument for separating the Met out from the functions of counterterrorism etc and giving them to a national police force under the control of the Home Office.

    Not that Dick was very good at counterterrorism. The one time she tried, her men shot somebody completely innocent.
    You need to ask who up the food chain authorised that shooting.
    If it were a military operation abroad, rather than a police operation domestically, we know that the decision would have gone all the way up to the PM. Does make one wonder…
    Keep wondering....
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?

    Johnson hasn't spent anything yet. The one major commitment was HS2 and they've cut the budget there. The IRP will never be delivered, because it is literally undeliverable, so that's worthless.

    So I'm not quite sure why you think anyone else would 'spend less.'
    It takes a bloody age to spend any money in infrastructure.
    My expectation is that the biggest levelling up spending this parliament will be on buses. Because you can spend on them quickly. There's already quite a lot of bus spending in the pipeline.
    Will any of that lead to cheaper fares?
    The purpose would be to boost the profits of Arriva, National Express, Stagecoach etc. Actual bus provision doesn't matter.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,448
    I know lots of you probably hate Sadiq Khan but it's an impressive move.

    At least someone of power in London has the courage to punish serial incompetence.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Is Khan giving Dick the chop because of performance? Or is anyone going to argue for "skin in the game" being the motive? Do we think it'll make a vast difference to Boris's prospects of standing up firm against his recent troubles?

    "for skin" and "vast difference", and not even a murmur of approval? You are all peasants!
    [flounces]
    You actually disagreeing with yourself now? 🙂

    Simple question for Khan, when did you first hear of the Downing Street booze ups and how long did you sit on the knowledge?

    I don’t like this sacking at all. Why now. Why this moment? It stinks.

    For the first time it smells to me of political establishment cover up. It was right the police did not act when they knew partying was going on, someone very high up the chain made that correct call - now Dick is gone all we are going to get is sacrificed scape goats, not the truth. The police should not be made the scapegoat for making the right call at the time. Nor should Labour lawyers request yesterday have investigation blocked by the sacking of someone who would investigate replaced by someone who won’t.

    If you think this post is bonkers and don’t like it at all, remember You read it here first.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,914
    Sandpit said:

    Time to disband the Met, as they disbanded the RUC after the Troubles?

    Defund the Police...🤔

    Where have we heard that before?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,116

    Cicero said:

    The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.

    Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.

    We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.

    If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
    So as far as you're concerned Russia can invade Lithuania and Poland as well as Ukraine? Do you not think they will defend themselves?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,087

    In other news the threat to Liberty Steel should be a national issue - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/10/thousands-of-liberty-steel-jobs-at-risk-england-hmrc-winding-up-order

    Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.

    Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.

    This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?

    Not this govt, this country. The U.K. has not given a stuff about manufacturing for many many years. From Thatcher, through new labour to the present day. We do not value a manufacturing base.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,448
    edited February 2022

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Is Khan giving Dick the chop because of performance? Or is anyone going to argue for "skin in the game" being the motive? Do we think it'll make a vast difference to Boris's prospects of standing up firm against his recent troubles?

    "for skin" and "vast difference", and not even a murmur of approval? You are all peasants!
    [flounces]
    If you think this post is bonkers and don’t like it at all,
    Your theory doesn't make any sense of Sadiq's key role in firing her.

    I think this is more likely to expose Johnson, not less. We know that Priti Patel has been sounding out support.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,256
    David Lammy is a little bit good on Ch4 News.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,194
    Anything about knife crime in the resignation statement ?
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,918
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?

    Johnson hasn't spent anything yet. The one major commitment was HS2 and they've cut the budget there. The IRP will never be delivered, because it is literally undeliverable, so that's worthless.

    So I'm not quite sure why you think anyone else would 'spend less.'
    It takes a bloody age to spend any money in infrastructure.
    My expectation is that the biggest levelling up spending this parliament will be on buses. Because you can spend on them quickly. There's already quite a lot of bus spending in the pipeline.
    Will any of that lead to cheaper fares?
    I would expect so. Not least because it's very easy to spend money on fares. Much easier to give public transport authorities to subsidise fares than to reopen a railway line (which in most cases closed for very sound economic reasons).
    Bus Back Better is worth a look on this. Interesting not least because Boris genuinely seems to have written the introduction in his name. It is written in pure Borisese.
    The only problem with subsidising fares is that you need to keep spending. It's not capital spend. Though if by doing so you drive up passengers sufficiently it dies start to pay for itself.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,116
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?

    Johnson hasn't spent anything yet. The one major commitment was HS2 and they've cut the budget there. The IRP will never be delivered, because it is literally undeliverable, so that's worthless.

    So I'm not quite sure why you think anyone else would 'spend less.'
    It takes a bloody age to spend any money in infrastructure.
    My expectation is that the biggest levelling up spending this parliament will be on buses. Because you can spend on them quickly. There's already quite a lot of bus spending in the pipeline.
    £350m a week?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584
    edited February 2022

    Cicero said:

    The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.

    Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.

    We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.

    If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
    The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.

    Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.

    Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.

    He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.

    Think of a medieval court.....

    From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.

    We may hope not. But it might be.

    What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
  • Options

    In other news the threat to Liberty Steel should be a national issue - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/10/thousands-of-liberty-steel-jobs-at-risk-england-hmrc-winding-up-order

    Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.

    Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.

    This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?

    When I was running a business, I always made sure that my payments to HMRC went in on time.

    If they are not paying their taxes, then this was inevitable.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,918
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    I keep finding myself in the position of defending Boris, which really isn't the intention - I'm as keen to see him go as the next man. And I suppose Rishi is who I'd want to see replace him. And yet - I can't see levelling up going better with anyone but Boris in charge. He's personally invested. Without going into my professional life too much, I know the Boris regime is trying to spend money in the north - ideally before the next election. And it is the treasury which is the biggest obstacle.

    I suppose you could argue that a Rishi led government would spend less, but more effectively. Perhaps?

    Johnson hasn't spent anything yet. The one major commitment was HS2 and they've cut the budget there. The IRP will never be delivered, because it is literally undeliverable, so that's worthless.

    So I'm not quite sure why you think anyone else would 'spend less.'
    It takes a bloody age to spend any money in infrastructure.
    My expectation is that the biggest levelling up spending this parliament will be on buses. Because you can spend on them quickly. There's already quite a lot of bus spending in the pipeline.
    Will any of that lead to cheaper fares?
    I would expect so. Not least because it's very easy to spend money on fares. Much easier to give public transport authorities to subsidise fares than to reopen a railway line (which in most cases closed for very sound economic reasons).
    Bus Back Better is worth a look on this. Interesting not least because Boris genuinely seems to have written the introduction in his name. It is written in pure Borisese.
    The only problem with subsidising fares is that you need to keep spending. It's not capital spend. Though if by doing so you drive up passengers sufficiently it dies start to pay for itself.
    Boris's transport sidekick Andrew Gilligan is very big on this. Would Rishi's transport sidekick be as keen? Seems unlikely to me, though you never know.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Anything about knife crime in the resignation statement ?

    Yes, she claims to have made big progress on it:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1491852177043861507
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,247
    Cicero said:

    The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.

    Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.

    Spot on. Lesson from history, Georgia, Crimea and Syria demonstrate a thug can’t be appeased
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,116

    Pulpstar said:

    Anything about knife crime in the resignation statement ?

    Yes, she claims to have made big progress on it:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1491852177043861507
    That part is worded very strangely. "We are acheiving remarkable results in key areas of violence, with thousands of fewer victims of knife crime..."
  • Options

    Cicero said:

    The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.

    Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.

    We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.

    If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
    So as far as you're concerned Russia can invade Lithuania and Poland as well as Ukraine? Do you not think they will defend themselves?
    We need to find diplomatic solutions. Hence talking about heavy sanctions and going after Russian money in the west. That can work - a lot of oligarchs that have influence.

    But war? Lets assume that Russia takes Kiev. Are we going to war with Russia knowing at best that we get sucked into a mess and at worse we all get nuked? So very few of the conventional WWIII scenarios find a resolution without nukes being fired.

    Dunno about you but I'd prefer not to get nuked. So lets go after Russian money as we are threatening. Problem is that we can't just make vague threats as the idiot Truss did - we need to actually propose international sanctions.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,986
    edited February 2022

    "Khan Fires Dick" not quite up to "Truman Fires MacArthur" as a headline. Still good enough for govt work.

    "Dick goes limp after being rubbed up by Khan"?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,448
    Taz said:

    In other news the threat to Liberty Steel should be a national issue - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/10/thousands-of-liberty-steel-jobs-at-risk-england-hmrc-winding-up-order

    Britain needs the steel products they make and needs the steel production capacity and capabilities they offer. Letting the company go to the wall and the UK reliant on foreign imports is a strategic disaster.

    Supposedly this is the kind of thing Brexit was going to stop. Allowing the UK government to legally provide the exact same state aid that half the EU states provide illegally. And yet as with cutting VAT on energy we campaigned for the right to do so but now choose not to.

    This government really couldn't give a fuck could it?

    Not this govt, this country. The U.K. has not given a stuff about manufacturing for many many years. From Thatcher, through new labour to the present day. We do not value a manufacturing base.
    That might be the first time on here that I've agreed with you.

    Quite right. Margaret Thatcher, whom I've praised as a great PM, nevertheless allowed our manufacturing infrastructure to be run into the ground.

    Her obsessive private sector economics and hatred of the State destroyed much of the industrial spine of this country.
  • Options
    Shehab Khan ITV
    @ShehabKhan
    ·
    40m
    NEW: I understand Sadiq Khan called Cressida Dick for a meeting this afternoon to tell her he no longer had confidence in her.

    She declined the meeting invite and offered her resignation instead.
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:

    Anything about knife crime in the resignation statement ?

    Yes, she claims to have made big progress on it:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1491852177043861507
    That part is worded very strangely. "We are acheiving remarkable results in key areas of violence, with thousands of fewer victims of knife crime..."
    Yes, it doesn't actually say fewer kids are being killed, which you might have thought would be the measure.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,584

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Is Khan giving Dick the chop because of performance? Or is anyone going to argue for "skin in the game" being the motive? Do we think it'll make a vast difference to Boris's prospects of standing up firm against his recent troubles?

    "for skin" and "vast difference", and not even a murmur of approval? You are all peasants!
    [flounces]
    You actually disagreeing with yourself now? 🙂

    Simple question for Khan, when did you first hear of the Downing Street booze ups and how long did you sit on the knowledge?

    I don’t like this sacking at all. Why now. Why this moment? It stinks.

    For the first time it smells to me of political establishment cover up. It was right the police did not act when they knew partying was going on, someone very high up the chain made that correct call - now Dick is gone all we are going to get is sacrificed scape goats, not the truth. The police should not be made the scapegoat for making the right call at the time. Nor should Labour lawyers request yesterday have investigation blocked by the sacking of someone who would investigate replaced by someone who won’t.

    If you think this post is bonkers and don’t like it at all, remember You read it here first.
    I think Dick leapt before any push - so that she can roll into the next high paid job that much more easily.

    It also blurs, as you say, all the stuff about timelines and what really happened.. And the police* do love the idea that leaving a post shuts down any investigation into the holder.

    *Civil Service as well.
  • Options
    Who should replace Cressida Dick as the new Metropolitan Police Commissioner?

    'Sue Gray!' jokes one veteran observer of the force's leadership over the years.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1491859945091964928
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,082

    Cicero said:

    The blockade of Ukraine by the Russian naval forces seems to have begun. Despite promises to Macron and indeed to Truss, there seems to be no stopping the Russian determination to launch a war in Ukraine. Here in Tallinn, things are quiet, but there is a general sense that the crisis is not going away and that the next three months will be a rough ride across Europe. There is real concern that the Belarusian exercises are cover to put pressure on the so called "Suwalki gap", the border between Poland and Lithuania that lies between the large Russian garrison in the Kaliningradskay oblast and the new Russian forces now in Hrodna, which is only 10km from the border.

    Russia is not seeking any exit and the only time they even hesitate is when credible deterrence is offered by NATO. So those who posted this morning that things were winding down seem to be rather mistaken. The regime in Moscow believes in the use of force as a legitimate act of state policy. The last time that was tried it ended very badly indeed. However the only way to stop this blackmail is to make sure that if Russia launches an attack on its neighbour then the cost is so severe that even Putin should fear the consequences.

    We're not going to threaten war over Ukraine. Putin knows this. The idea of the long-threatened "lets kill everyone" war breaking out over what until recently was an internal Soviet issue is beyond comprehension.

    If he was about to surge armies through the Fulda gap then OK its war. But through the Suwalki gap? No.
    The danger is that you are assuming top-of-the-mountian-lofty-rationality in an opponent.

    Read some Herman Kahn. A huge historical mistake is to assume that dictatorial opponents are individual actors, without enormous pressures from their barons.

    Putin isn't sitting in a vast, marble lined room, by a huge fire. With a globe of the world, and a fine brandy.. he is not deciding the fate of the world like a personal chess game.

    He is the pinnacle of a pyramid of ruthless and powerful men. Each of them (and Putin himself) have ideologies they cleave to. Alliance, requirements, hatreds. They have things they believe in, more than just money and power. Though those are very important.

    Think of a medieval court.....

    From Putin's point of view, it may be that a giant tank battle with NATO forces is the safe option for him personally. Another Great Patriotic War to rally the dying embers of his regime.

    We may hope not. But it might be.

    What is rational to us, may not even be the 13th best choice to him.
    This is true, however, nothing he has done so far seems to be beyond the established modus operandi of post Soviet (which has mainly been Putin) Russian foreign policy. Which is to dominate near neighbours and try to prevent any of the Soviet successor states joining NATO.
This discussion has been closed.