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Soon to be Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981
    .
    HYUFD said:

    Boris mini bounce at a much needed time, Labour lead back clearly below 10%
    Do you think the fightback has been achieved by the Savile slur?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,606
    philiph said:

    A real shame to miss out on his knowledge and experiences, which are different to almost everyone on the site.
    Only JackW could compete for the length of family history :)
    The loss is to the detriment of the site for those who either concur or dissent from his views.
    His candour was always remarkable because of the ease of identifying him.
    Forcing anonymity by doxing or other threats encourages bullying and keyboard warrior behaviour. When your identity is known you need far more balls, honesty and conviction than the regiments of internet personnas we see every day.
    I for one will miss @charles, as well as other departed posters.
    I miss Charles too. A very nice man. Perhaps he could be invited to the March get together.

    On a point of order there are others on here with even longer and quite as illustrious family histories, though perhaps not talked about as much.
  • HYUFD said:

    Nope, Germany has selection and its non selective schools provide excellent vocational and technical education
    Which few people have ever been bothered about in this country.

    What the grammar school supporters should advocate is to turn comps into technical schools before they start creating grammars.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,308
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Boris mini bounce at a much needed time, Labour lead back clearly below 10%
    Much needed for Labour too. It's crucial that Johnson stays in position for at least seven or eight months. Listening to the audience hissing and laughing at him on Any Questions is quite cathartic. I can't see a sliver of hope that he'll recover but there is a danger that a new leader might persuade voters that the problem has gone with him
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,627
    Cyclefree said:

    What in God's name is in it for Barclay?
    Former Chief of Staff to the PM sounds way cooler than Former Cabinet Office Minister?
  • Foxy said:

    I wouldn't argue with that at all. It is the lack of decent training, education and skills of those further down the SE scale that is the real root of the levelling up problem.
    I dunno. I went to a bog standard, slightly rough comprehensive. My fundamental observation was that there was a good chunk of the kids in each class, maybe 25% or more, who had absolutely no interest in learning, no curiosity about the world, no self-discipline and who viewed every day as just an excuse to mess around from start to finish. They disrupted everyone else. Nothing any teacher did or said made any difference.

    Now maybe if they had been shown straight to the brick laying course things would have been different but I doubt it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    Former Chief of Staff to the PM sounds way cooler than Former Cabinet Office Minister?
    For a few seconds, until the question “which PM?”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    Cyclefree said:

    I miss Charles too. A very nice man. Perhaps he could be invited to the March get together.

    On a point of order there are others on here with even longer and quite as illustrious family histories, though perhaps not talked about as much.
    Maybe but I doubt many if any with families also as rich as his is
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,163
    edited February 2022
    Tim Montgomerie
    @montie
    ·
    Feb 3
    Who would now go and work in No10? Sooner rather than later Boris will let you down.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1489332561524494344

    ===

    We have an answer now: Steve Barclay.
  • Foxy said:

    I wouldn't argue with that at all. It is the lack of decent training, education and skills of those further down the SE scale that is the real root of the levelling up problem.
    And training, education and skills shouldn't be things that you finish at 16 or 18 or 21 but rather something which you are continually improving.

    I'd like to see everyone have a education/training allowance or tax credit to encourage continual lifetime learning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595

    .

    Do you think the fightback has been achieved by the Savile slur?
    Crosby can be a shit but he is also a shit who knows how to win
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,163
    edited February 2022
    Roger said:

    Much needed for Labour too. It's crucial that Johnson stays in position for at least seven or eight months. Listening to the audience hissing and laughing at him on Any Questions is quite cathartic. I can't see a sliver of hope that he'll recover but there is a danger that a new leader might persuade voters that the problem has gone with him
    Must be a nightmare planning tactics in Starmer's office at moment.

    Do we go for him or pull back on the pedal and keep him there?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    HYUFD said:

    Crosby can be a shit but he is also a shit who knows how to win
    Is that a good thing?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Carnyx said:

    But grammars did fail, because they demanded the existence of sec mods.
    Why?
    I always find this an utterly lazy argument.
    Is it beyond the abilities of mankind to devise a better option than secondary modern schools?
    It is a failure of educationalists, LA education departments, Dept of Education, successive governments, ministers and society to not demand something better.
    To suggest there was not a better option is wrong. To be critical of those I list above for endemic failure of those non grammar school pupils is entirely valid. The pupils deserved better and it was possible to provide better with thought, planning, imagination and money.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981

    It’s like the Hindenburg coming to the rescue of the Titanic - a 2 hour disaster to be followed by a 2 minute one.
    LOL!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,250

    Sorry. Can't agree with that.

    Wierd. Creepy. Tedious.

    Definitely not funny.
    Are we talking Radiohead?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,623
    Cyclefree said:

    What in God's name is in it for Barclay?
    Maybe Carrie will bake him a cake.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    Foxy said:

    I think my family goes back at least as far as his. Just that most of them were peasants.
    So does mine. I just don't know who any of them were.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,163
    edited February 2022
    Johnson promising the Express tax cuts literally a week after penning a joint article in S Times saying the NI tax rise had to go ahead no matter what.

    Is anyone in the conservative party still being taken in by this lying charlatan?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Cyclefree said:

    I miss Charles too. A very nice man. Perhaps he could be invited to the March get together.

    On a point of order there are others on here with even longer and quite as illustrious family histories, though perhaps not talked about as much.
    Point of order noted.
    I suspect most of us have equally long familly histories.
    Some are better researched, known and documented.
    How far back can you trace yours?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,623
    Cyclefree said:

    I miss Charles too. A very nice man. Perhaps he could be invited to the March get together.

    On a point of order there are others on here with even longer and quite as illustrious family histories, though perhaps not talked about as much.
    I think we all have family histories of equal length. Starting in the primordial soup.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,250

    I will have you know that my family stretches back to the dawn of humanity. I just do not know all their names....
    There was an amoeba called Brian.....
  • Johnson promising the Express tax cuts literally a week after penning a joint article in S Times saying the NI tax rise had to go ahead no matter what.

    Is anyone in the conservative party still being taken in by this lying charlatan?

    Lots of people don't think of NI as a tax.

    And indeed for oldies it isn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    Tim Montgomerie
    @montie
    ·
    Feb 3
    Who would now go and work in No10? Sooner rather than later Boris will let you down.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1489332561524494344

    ===

    We have an answer now: Steve Barclay.

    As someone says below, at least a while back the job brought the attraction of offering the only nightlife in town.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    I dunno. I went to a bog standard, slightly rough comprehensive. My fundamental observation was that there was a good chunk of the kids in each class, maybe 25% or more, who had absolutely no interest in learning, no curiosity about the world, no self-discipline and who viewed every day as just an excuse to mess around from start to finish. They disrupted everyone else. Nothing any teacher did or said made any difference.

    Now maybe if they had been shown straight to the brick laying course things would have been different but I doubt it.
    Sure, but where does that attitude come from, and how can we overturn it.

    If its 25% of a comp, how high it is in a Secondary Modern?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,623

    I dunno. I went to a bog standard, slightly rough comprehensive. My fundamental observation was that there was a good chunk of the kids in each class, maybe 25% or more, who had absolutely no interest in learning, no curiosity about the world, no self-discipline and who viewed every day as just an excuse to mess around from start to finish. They disrupted everyone else. Nothing any teacher did or said made any difference.

    Now maybe if they had been shown straight to the brick laying course things would have been different but I doubt it.
    Straight to the borstal might have helped
  • HYUFD said:

    Crosby can be a shit but he is also a shit who knows how to win
    Tomorrow will mark two months since the Tories had a poll lead (Redfield & Wilton).
  • Foxy said:

    Sure, but where does that attitude come from, and how can we overturn it.

    If its 25% of a comp, how high it is in a Secondary Modern?
    At the time, being a kid, I was just bemused.

    Now I blame the parents and the home life. But then where did the parents learn their attitude?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    Foxy said:

    I think my family goes back at least as far as his. Just that most of them were peasants.
    Technically ALL our families go way back to the primordial gloop.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I get that, and I'm not saying 'no selection'. I'm saying the purpose of selection needs to be as much to improve the outcomes of those who don't make it to grammar schools, as those who do.

    And right now, poorer kids in selective counties do worse (academically) than those in non-selective counties.



    Now, I suspect that this is an artifact of the top 5-10% doing better, but then 80-90% doing quite a lot worse.

    And that's a serious problem.
    Well the Sutton Trust - whose whole raison d'etre is improvement in education for the disadvantaged - did a major report on this very thing a few years ago and found overall there was no evidence that Grammar schools caused a reduction in outcomes for the non selective schools in the same counties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    Sure, but where does that attitude come from, and how can we overturn it.

    If its 25% of a comp, how high it is in a Secondary Modern?
    Probably 1/3 but then most of the bright kids in a selective area will be in a grammar school, not a comp with the disruptive 25%
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,606
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe but I doubt many if any with families also as rich as his is
    You don't know that either.
    philiph said:

    Point of order noted.
    I suspect most of us have equally long familly histories.
    Some are better researched, known and documented.
    How far back can you trace yours?
    15th century. Of course there are so many branches and not all have been researched. But most of the main ones have been.

    Some of the Irish records get a bit ropey and I have dear @Charles's family to thank for that!

    I do have some land deeds for the family farm from the 1780's ie before the Act of Union and I would love a professional archivist or historian to have a look at them. Apart from anything else Irish land law is quite interesting.

    I do realise that that last sentence sounds like the saddest nerdiest thing that anyone could ever write.

    So perhaps I should stop now ....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161

    I dunno. I went to a bog standard, slightly rough comprehensive. My fundamental observation was that there was a good chunk of the kids in each class, maybe 25% or more, who had absolutely no interest in learning, no curiosity about the world, no self-discipline and who viewed every day as just an excuse to mess around from start to finish. They disrupted everyone else. Nothing any teacher did or said made any difference.

    Now maybe if they had been shown straight to the brick laying course things would have been different but I doubt it.
    This was my experience as well. A minority of people who make life a misery for everyone else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595

    Straight to the borstal might have helped
    In pre industrial times most of the bottom 25% would have been agricultural labourers, in Victorian times some would have got a factory job doing routine labour, others ended up in the workhouse.

    Now they end up doing mainly routine unskilled work eg in fast food or a supermarket or warehouse or on a building site, or they end up on welfare
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,606

    Technically ALL our families go way back to the primordial gloop.
    Of course. But not everyone knows the names of their ancestors beyond a few generations and for many few records were kept. Hence the popularity of all those archive / family history programmes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    edited February 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    You don't know that either. 15th century. Of course there are so many branches and not all have been researched. But most of the main ones have been.

    Some of the Irish records get a bit ropey and I have dear @Charles's family to thank for that!

    I do have some land deeds for the family farm from the 1780's ie before the Act of Union and I would love a professional archivist or historian to have a look at them. Apart from anything else Irish land law is quite interesting.

    I do realise that that last sentence sounds like the saddest nerdiest thing that anyone could ever write.

    So perhaps I should stop now ....
    You can google Charles' family's net worth very easily and it is comfortably 9 figures
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829
    HYUFD said:

    You can google Charles' family's net worth very easily and it is comfortably 9 figures
    I have a cousin worth that. Not bad for someone who hasn't inherited a penny.
  • Eh? I'm not advocating for the abolition of private schools or grammar schools. I'm merely showing that his "statistic" is meaningless as a measure of the benefits of grammar schools.
    Fair enough and apologies I hadn't reread the whole thread properly. I still maintain that abolishing Grammars and Private schools would seriously damage education in England not improve it. And that from a Comprehensive boy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    I have a cousin worth that. Not bad for someone who hasn't inherited a penny.
    Self made though, not inherited and I assume they don't post on PB so he was still most likely the richest poster
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Lots of people don't think of NI as a tax.

    And indeed for oldies it isn't.
    Q: What's the only tax that *is* predominantly levied on olds?
    A: IHT, albeit that it only becomes payable when they are in a cadaverous state.

    IHT currently raises a little over £5bn per year. If I were in Johnson's (or his successor's) place, then I would instruct the Chancellor to announce the outright abolition of IHT in Spring 2024 and then immediately go to the country. The olds, especially very wealthy olds, and their expectant heirs will be thrilled to bits, and the Treasury can always increase the OAP arse wiping tax Health and Social Care levy from 1.25% to 2% at the same time which would, according to recent projections, raise around £7bn and therefore screw the entire cost out of the working age population and their employers, with £2bn to spare. This additional money could be used to double the winter fuel allowance as well. That's the core vote bought off at everyone else's expense for another term. Result.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Cyclefree said:

    What in God's name is in it for Barclay?
    If he thinks he has no other prospects under someone else then being chief dogsbody to the incumbent is still something.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829
    HYUFD said:

    Self made though, not inherited and I assume they don't post on PB so he was still most likely the richest poster
    Yep. Comprehensive school and Kingston Poly. Nice bloke too, you really wouldn't know. Indeed I only found out when he upgraded his season ticket to a corporate box at Old Trafford, and googled his company.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    edited February 2022

    I will have you know that my family stretches back to the dawn of humanity. I just do not know all their names....
    How come you got 4 likes and I got 2 for the same joke? Is it the way you tell um?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981
    .
    HYUFD said:

    Crosby can be a shit but he is also a shit who knows how to win
    You are better than that.

    You have a faith and believe in a Christian moral code. Johnson operates from the gutter and he has done so since his days of colluding with Darius Guppy.
  • Technically ALL our families go way back to the primordial gloop.
    Apart from the aliens who walk amongst us.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,623
    Foxy said:

    Yep. Comprehensive school and Kingston Poly. Nice bloke too, you really wouldn't know. Indeed I only found out when he upgraded his season ticket to a corporate box at Old Trafford, and googled his company.
    Hold on. You just said he was a nice bloke and then followed up by revealing that he is a Man U fan!

    Goodnight world, and to all our ancestors.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,606
    HYUFD said:

    You can google Charles' family's net worth very easily and it is comfortably 9 figures
    So?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    Hold on. You just said he was a nice bloke and then followed up by revealing that he is a Man U fan!

    Goodnight world, and to all our ancestors.

    To be fair, he was born there!
  • TresTres Posts: 2,782
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    You can google Charles' family's net worth very easily and it is comfortably 9 figures
    That will buy a lot of Marjorie Taylor Greene posters.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,782
    Cyclefree said:

    Of course. But not everyone knows the names of their ancestors beyond a few generations and for many few records were kept. Hence the popularity of all those archive / family history programmes.
    And not everyone feels the need to bore the rest of us about it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    HYUFD said:

    Self made though, not inherited and I assume they don't post on PB so he was still most likely the richest poster
    Am I the only poster here who doesn't know who Charles is in the real world?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,782
    kjh said:

    Am I the only poster here who doesn't know who Charles is in the real world?
    No.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    kjh said:

    How come you got 4 likes and I got 2 for the same joke? Is it the way you tell um?
    Depending on which way people scroll through the chat they may get to one before the other, and only like the first person to make the gag.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    Eabhal said:

    Duke of Rothesay
    No, that Charles was not as posh as our Charles
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,003
    I miss Charles's input too
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    kjh said:

    Am I the only poster here who doesn't know who Charles is in the real world?
    I was most disappointed he did not have a suitably posh quadruple-barrelled surname.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    Eabhal said:

    Duke of Rothesay
    I had to look that up. Now you're just being silly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347

    Technically ALL our families go way back to the primordial gloop.
    If you met my family you might consider not much progress has been achieved since that gloop.
  • Penny Mordaunt became the latest Minister to be put on 'resignation watch' tonight as sources in the pro-Boris Johnson camp said a no-confidence vote was inevitable.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10480891/Penny-Mordaunt-latest-MP-resignation-watch-Partygate-scandal.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2022
    According to experts, there are a number of answers. First, although Israel’s headline vaccination rate once sat at the top of all vaccine charts, it has gradually slipped down a middling position.

    But more importantly, perhaps, vaccination rates among the vulnerable are not as good as they might be. While in the UK nearly all the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated, in Israel 10 per cent or more of the over 60s remain unprotected.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/israels-rise-covid-deaths-important-lesson-uk-vaccines/

    From memory I am not sure it quite true to say "nearly all" in the UK, but better than many other nations.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,984
    HYUFD said:

    No, that Charles was not as posh as our Charles
    Haha! He was a great poster, showed me a world I don't (and likely never will) have any experience of.

    But he was hilariously out of touch on stuff like the UC earnings taper rate/marginal rate of tax. That some people can't get a grip on that explains the prejudices of some of those at the top.
  • “Orf to her bed”?

    If the Star story is correct (a BIG if) the Queen (looking thinner, again) may be orf for her big sleep….

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1490090424928804870?s=21
  • Penny Mordaunt became the latest Minister to be put on 'resignation watch' tonight as sources in the pro-Boris Johnson camp said a no-confidence vote was inevitable.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10480891/Penny-Mordaunt-latest-MP-resignation-watch-Partygate-scandal.html

    Do it Penny.

    Would catapult her straight into the leadership race as the only one with the backbone.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829
    kjh said:

    Am I the only poster here who doesn't know who Charles is in the real world?
    Me neither.

    After all, it doesn't really matter. This is a board about politics, ideas and betting. For gossip go to the other PB.
  • “Orf to her bed”?

    If the Star story is correct (a BIG if) the Queen (looking thinner, again) may be orf for her big sleep….

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1490090424928804870?s=21

    Utter bollx imho.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    “Orf to her bed”?

    If the Star story is correct (a BIG if) the Queen (looking thinner, again) may be orf for her big sleep….

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1490090424928804870?s=21

    She has looked a lot frailer these last months. I hope not too much is required in terms of personal appearances for the jubilee events.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,984
    edited February 2022

    Utter bollx imho.
    If they aren't rehearsing London Bridge I'd be more worried.

    It has to be massive. And perfect. I have an insight into what happens if she passes at Balmoral and it's suitably complex.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Utter bollx imho.
    Yeah, it's clearly planning for the ascension.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    HYUFD said:

    Self made though, not inherited and I assume they don't post on PB so he was still most likely the richest poster
    Why are you in awe of people who inherit wealth? They are not special. I'm rather proud of the fact that I did alright and didn't.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981

    It’s like the Hindenburg coming to the rescue of the Titanic - a 2 hour disaster to be followed by a 2 minute one.

    “Orf to her bed”?

    If the Star story is correct (a BIG if) the Queen (looking thinner, again) may be orf for her big sleep….

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1490090424928804870?s=21

    From the funniest post ever on PB to quoting the Daily Star. From the sublime to the ridiculous. Tut, tut!
  • Utter bollx imho.
    Given she’s just reiterated her 1947 commitment to serve, and signed the letter “your servant” - I very much doubt she has any intention of stepping down until a higher authority so decides.
  • RobD said:

    Yeah, it's clearly planning for the ascension.
    "possibly within a year"

    Yes, well as the Queen is of a certain age... a certain amount of planning for next year is a good idea.

  • Eabhal said:

    If they aren't rehearsing London Bridge I'd be more worried.

    It has to be massive. And perfect. I have an insight into what happens if she passes at Balmoral and it's suitably complex.
    Better get Bozza out of Downing Street by then or otherwise...

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981
    edited February 2022
    RobD said:

    Yeah, it's clearly planning for the ascension.
    Uh? Accession, or are we talking another Easter redux?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Uh? Accession or are we talking another Easter redux?
    Oops, wrong word.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    kjh said:

    Why are you in awe of people who inherit wealth? They are not special. I'm rather proud of the fact that I did alright and didn't.
    Fair enough, though Charles went to Eton and Oxford and has his own career in financial services so it is not as if he just relied solely on family wealth
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981
    RobD said:

    Oops, wrong word.
    You may be correct. They say Lord works in mysterious ways.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Better get Bozza out of Downing Street by then or otherwise...

    I'm just glad she made it out of the worst of the pandemic. A demise in mid-2020 would have been terrible.
  • I forget the precise terms of reference, but my impression is that OGH's invitation to March 2nd PB-Fest 2022 is an open to all PBers past and present, human or not?

    Regardless of race, religion, creed, party, income, ideology, woke, wack, woof, weave or shoe size?

    OR previous / current status re: posting on PB?

    May the last be first . . . and may the Devil NOT take the hindmost!
  • RobD said:

    I'm just glad she made it out of the worst of the pandemic. A demise in mid-2020 would have been terrible.
    Yeh, Charles would have been sat on his own at the funeral while Johnson got lashed up with his aides.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    edited February 2022

    Labour lead down to 7% with deltapoll:

    Lab 41 (-1)
    Con 34 (+2)
    LD 10 (-)

    I predicted it'd be 6-7 this morning (I am Mystic Nick). As i said, I think that's the underlying position, with a bounce upwards when there's a new scandal, settling back when nothing much new has emerged for a few days. (No Opinium tomght?)

    HYUFD isn't wrong that that is a recoverable lead two years out from the election. The MPs who've declared no conifdence will be in an awkward position if the challenge fizzles, though.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981
    RobD said:

    I'm just glad she made it out of the worst of the pandemic. A demise in mid-2020 would have been terrible.
    I am not a Monarchist, but I hope she goes on and on. Besides, the Queen deserves better than an accidentally comedic eulogy from bumbling Billy Bunter.
  • I am not a Monarchist, but I hope she goes on and on. Besides, the Queen deserves better than an accidentally comedic eulogy from bumbling Billy Bunter.
    May she go on living until she no longer enjoys it. Most of the her time, anyway.

    And from the looks of things, from the first she's always looked like someone who is very comfortable (again most of the time) in her own skin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981

    I predicted it'd be 6-7 this morning (I am Mystic Nick). As i said, I think that's the underlying position, with a bounce upwards when there's a new scandal, settling back when nothing much new has emerged for a few days. (No Opinium tomght?)

    HYUFD isn't wrong that that is a recoverable lead two years out from the election. The MPs who've declared no conifdence will be in an awkward position if the challenge fizzles, though.
    Nothing new has emerged for a few days?

    This could be a significant decline, but equally it could be MoE.

    We are at this polling point (which I wasn't expecting) before the economic tsunami hits (which I was expending).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,722
    Cyclefree said:

    I miss Charles too. A very nice man. Perhaps he could be invited to the March get together.

    On a point of order there are others on here with even longer and quite as illustrious family histories, though perhaps not talked about as much.
    I was momentarily quite - well, excited is the wrong word, but interested - when my Dad and I managed to trace our family tree back to King John.
    Then a little back of a fag packet maths worked out that EVERYONE is descended from King John - or at least, if you have British ancestry, the odds of NOT having King John as an ancestor are so small as to be negligible. So not quite so exciting.
    But actually slightly more interesting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,250

    Do it Penny.

    Would catapult her straight into the leadership race as the only one with the backbone.

    The timing for Rishi must be tricky. Knowing when to jump....

    BTW, the gossip in the bar at the SW Conference was that at least two Cabinet Ministers have fully manned operations for their leadership bid up and running.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,932

    Labour lead down to 7% with deltapoll:

    Lab 41 (-1)
    Con 34 (+2)
    LD 10 (-)

    Pretty poor that Labour just can't seem to make headway in the polls at the moment.
    Having said that, even when at their worst, and Labour at their best, the Cons have never actually got less than 30% in any GE since the war.... possibly since ever.
    And likewise, Labour rarely manage more than 40%. 1997 and 2001 were the best they managed in more modern three party politics times.

    The thing about 1997 was as much the boundaries as anything else. Labour managed a 12.5% lead and got a majority of 179. The Cons managed 11.5% last time and only got a majority of 80.
  • Pretty poor that Labour just can't seem to make headway in the polls at the moment.
    Having said that, even when at their worst, and Labour at their best, the Cons have never actually got less than 30% in any GE since the war.... possibly since ever.
    And likewise, Labour rarely manage more than 40%. 1997 and 2001 were the best they managed in more modern three party politics times.

    The thing about 1997 was as much the boundaries as anything else. Labour managed a 12.5% lead and got a majority of 179. The Cons managed 11.5% last time and only got a majority of 80.
    Now that it's after midnight and officially the 6th, we have now gone two full months without any Tory poll leads. The last was Redfield & Wilton's poll on 6th December.
  • The timing for Rishi must be tricky. Knowing when to jump....

    BTW, the gossip in the bar at the SW Conference was that at least two Cabinet Ministers have fully manned operations for their leadership bid up and running.
    Have they installed telephone lines! (Sorry I am showing my age here) 👍
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited February 2022
    Cookie said:

    I was momentarily quite - well, excited is the wrong word, but interested - when my Dad and I managed to trace our family tree back to King John.
    Then a little back of a fag packet maths worked out that EVERYONE is descended from King John - or at least, if you have British ancestry, the odds of NOT having King John as an ancestor are so small as to be negligible. So not quite so exciting.
    But actually slightly more interesting.
    Still impressive - in sociological, historical, cultural ways for sure - to be able to document & connect the dots.

    EDIT - Relative of mine worked hard trying to qualify for Daughters of the American Revolution, along with other ladies in her genealogy club. Sadly, given fact immediate ancestors were nearly all Irish Catholic immigrants, best she could achieve was Daughters of the War of 1812.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    I'm a fan of exclusive/breaking royal stories which generally amount to 'It's a monarchy'. Like this one from the Express, with the startlingly fresh revelation that Charles fears the moment he becomes King because 'it will inevitably mean the loss of his beloved mother'

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/royal/1557982/Prince-Charles-Queen-news-terrified-ont

    Or of course the classic 'he sees it as his birthright' story

    https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/inside-prince-charles-plans-if-queen-elizabeth-steps-down/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347

    I predicted it'd be 6-7 this morning (I am Mystic Nick). As i said, I think that's the underlying position, with a bounce upwards when there's a new scandal, settling back when nothing much new has emerged for a few days. (No Opinium tomght?)

    HYUFD isn't wrong that that is a recoverable lead two years out from the election. The MPs who've declared no conifdence will be in an awkward position if the challenge fizzles, though.
    None were in the ruling Clique though were they? So it means retaliation by lack of reward, but they weren't likely to get that anyway.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,606
    Night all
    Cookie said:

    I was momentarily quite - well, excited is the wrong word, but interested - when my Dad and I managed to trace our family tree back to King John.
    Then a little back of a fag packet maths worked out that EVERYONE is descended from King John - or at least, if you have British ancestry, the odds of NOT having King John as an ancestor are so small as to be negligible. So not quite so exciting.
    But actually slightly more interesting.
    I have no British ancestry at all. In fact, given that part of my Italian family originated in Southern Spain and another part was Jewish, a significant part was probably Middle Eastern at some point.

    I mainly find it interesting because you see the personal connection with historical movements - whether emigration or expulsion or wars or conquest or whatever. It's like seeing history in miniature.

    Goodnight PB.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,932

    Utter bollx imho.
    Completely agree. HMQ isn't quitting. Best you'll get is a Regency, but actually abducate....? Not happening.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667

    Nothing new has emerged for a few days?

    This could be a significant decline, but equally it could be MoE.

    We are at this polling point (which I wasn't expecting) before the economic tsunami hits (which I was expending).
    Yes, I'd say nothing very new has happened that would interest most voters. Various advisers who they've never heard of coming and going, a few MPs who they've also not heard of sending letters, plus a report of a picture of Johnson holding a glass of beer.

    There is also, I think, a degree of acceptance that the tsunami is inevitable post-pandemic, but how it's handled will be crucial. Any more reports of companies having dubious claims written off with an airy shrug and there will be a serious backlash over rising taxes. I do think the Tories are in trouble, but it's not a slam-dunk.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    It's fairly despicable that the Queen is supporting the elevation of Camilla to a future Queen. Puts me off the whole royal family that they are legitimizing the hell Diana was put through. Its her first major mistake since the Diana years. Maybe we are better off as a republic after all.
This discussion has been closed.