Soon to be Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

System

Soon to be Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

He’s teetotal, tidy, smart-looking. He brushes his hair and smiles engagingly. He’s articulate and coherent. With a successful highly lucrative City career behind him and a blameless private life, he has no obvious faults: no sackings or embarrassing public apologies, at least. A perfect ethnic minority blend of William Hague and David Cameron, even down to being MP for the former’s constituency, its name and location combining the best of North and South. Honestly, a novelist couldn’t better it. And he drinks tea – from God’s Own Country! What more could anyone want?

Read the full story here

eek

Problem is he's the best person the Tories have in the options they have to choose from - because Bozo removed the other options from the board.

Edit - it's always Bozo the clown....

TheScreamingEagles

I think he's overrated and his support might crater if he also gets fined.

Sandpit

Does PB break, when a poster gets to 100,000?

dixiedean

Fourth. Like the final goal in Frankie Lampard's first game.
UTFT.

malcolmg

5th

JBriskin3

Azn

Billionaire

Ex-Goldman

Drinks Yorkshire Tea

I would say he's nailed on next Tory leader.

ydoethur

The issue Cyclefree identifies is the most pressing one. There's no sign any politician has any ideas to sort out the many problems we face.

Not that there are any easy answers, but nobody, not Starmer, not even supposed radicals like the Greens or RefUK, are even asking the right questions.

In their absence, basic competence even if it's not high level competence would be an improvement.

Pulpstar

Rugby union has far too much stuff that gives penalties tbh.

dixiedean

Brodie in Homeland drank Yorkshire Tea, too.
And look what he did.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

Does PB break, when a poster gets to 100,000?

My plan is to reach 99,999 posts then reset the post counts.

ClippP

Another great opener, Ms Cyclefree. Well done.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Does PB break, when a poster gets to 100,000?

My plan is to reach 99,999 posts then reset the post counts.

Surely you just host a business meeting?

I know there wouldn't be wine, but couldn't we at least bring our own cheese and cake?

kle4

Missed his shot.

dixiedean

Pulpstar said:

Rugby union has far too much stuff that gives penalties tbh.

Yep. Scrums in particular are seen as a way of getting a penalty, rather than instigating any kind of exciting back move.

kle4

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Punching up or down is an absolutely foolish line that some people take. If you don't believe in 'nasty' comedy, that's fine. And if you do, that's fine. But having special protected groups or particular targets (who alone can be subjected to the most extreme humour) is to hold no principle on the boundary of taste or free speech at all, but an arbitrary preference for one side or against another.

To concisely rephrase: it's a crock of shit.

I have a theory that the people preoccupied with issues of race are those who are, in actuality, racist. The opposite of a racist isn't an 'anti-racist', it's someone who sees no colour, just likes everyone, with no prior judgements, until given a reason to do otherwise. 'Punching down' is a deeply racist idiom.

I don't think that's a very plausible theory, to be honest. The people I know who think about these issues a lot are mostly people who have experienced racism, frequently pretty nasty racism at that. Accusing them of being racists sounds an awful lot like gaslighting.

I'm not sure the term gaslighting is very helpful, however (it rarely is). That theory may well be wrong, but is someone advaancing it truly gaslighting? It's not been hard to find people who have suggested X cannot be a racist because they are a great anti-racist, yet in fact X has said racist things (the classic example would be the sort of thing Baddiel details). In that situation it wouldn't be gaslighting to call someone a racist even though they would see themselves as anti-racist, even though labelling anyone who who is preoccupied with these issues as racist would be incorrect.

I think that calling someone who talks about racism because they experience racism a racist is a textbook example of gaslighting to be honest.

But that was not the original proposition. The original 'theory' was about people 'preoccupied with issues of race'. That will undoubtedly include people who have experienced racism, but is not the full extent of them. Indeed, many people are rightly and positively interested in issues of race without having experienced racism themselves.

So even if the theory was bollocks I don't think anyone suggested the approach you are calling gaslighting. Indeed, is it gaslighting to imply that was what was suggested? Am I gaslighting by suggesting that your suggestion was not the original suggestion?

I can only go by my own experience, which is that people who are "preoccupied by race" are people who face racism and have the "preoccupation" forced upon them. If there are people who just woke up one day and decided to become obsessed by race for no reason I can only say that I have never met them.

Personally I think the idea those preoccupied by matters of race are likely to be racist is not correct - at what point does it become being 'preoccupied' for a start - though people concerned with such matters are not immune from doing or saying racist things, but I think it is a bit against the current zeitgeist to act as though people who have not experienced racism cannot be preoccupied with racial issues - plenty of allies out there seeking to help raise and address these issues.

Have you really never met anyone who is very keen on racial and equalities matters who is not necessarily someone with personal experience of such matters? I may joke about some politically correct terminology or the like, but I think it is a good thing people beyond an oppressed group can care a lot about these things.

Leon

Pulpstar said:

Rugby union has far too much stuff that gives penalties tbh.

It’s not a classic match

Scrappy. England dominant but unable to convert. Meh

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

Rugby union has far too much stuff that gives penalties tbh.

Where’s rugby’s Michael Masi when you need him, to turn the rule book inside-out a minute before the end of the match?

TheScreamingEagles

Fantastic rugby by England.

Take note Scotland, that's how you play rugby.

pigeon

JBriskin3 said:

Azn

Billionaire

Ex-Goldman

Drinks Yorkshire Tea

I would say he's nailed on next Tory leader.

If and when there's finally a vacancy, I think there's a real risk he gets outflanked from the right by Truss.

There is no solution to our problems that doesn't involve rebalancing of taxation away from incomes and towards assets, and that is only going to come (if it ever does) with a Labour Government.

Will it then act, bearing in mind that this is necessarily going to involve at least some soaking of elderly voters' property wealth? No idea.

Heathener

Anyone else think we may be in for something BIG in one of the Sunday papers?

HYUFD

Sunak could be one of 3 Tory leadership hopefuls. At best he would be the next John Major, who narrowly wins another term for the Tories after ten years in power. Alternatively he could be the next Douglas Home, who narrowly lost a general election after ten years in power in 1964 but made it closer than expected so Wilson only got a majority of 4. At worst he would be the next Michael Portillo or on the Labour side David Miliband and fail to even become leader, let alone win a general election.

If Sunak wants to be the first, like Major in 1992 he needs to connect with the average voter. That means focusing on low taxes but also a commitment to public services and while opposed to socialism not getting too close to the laissez faire wing of the City and large corporations and the libertarian wing of the Tory right.

Now Brexit has got done austerity and deregulation will not keep the redwall. While any form of wealth tax would be as disastrous as May's dementia tax proved with Tory leaning swing voters.

I also disagree all alternatives to Boris would be better. Other than maybe Sunak most would probably poll worse than Boris with the public in the end

Sandpit

Get in there!

IanB2

Don't go telling the Tories that their cupboard is empty, until they've chucked out the stuff beyond its sell-by date.

Sandpit

Heathener said:

Anyone else think we may be in for something BIG in one of the Sunday papers?

Yes, the Mail have got the Lord Ashcroft biography of Carrie Johnson. It’s not particularly complementary.

TheScreamingEagles

Heathener said:

Anyone else think we may be in for something BIG in one of the Sunday papers?

Well the Sunday Times is still a broadsheet and has many sections, so that's definitely big.

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Does PB break, when a poster gets to 100,000?

My plan is to reach 99,999 posts then reset the post counts.

Am I right in remembering that all the account start dates got reset, in 2013?

Luckyguy1983

Excellent header @Cyclefree. Don't forget, we don't really know what Sunak has up his sleeve to win him the next GE - it would seem silly to take VAT off energy now, when it would benefit Boris. I think he's very good, clear front-runner.

eek

HYUFD said:

Sunak could be one of 3 Tory leadership hopefuls. At best he would be the next John Major, who narrowly wins another term for the Tories after ten years in power. Alternatively he could be the next Douglas Home, who narrowly lost a general election after ten years in power but made it closer than expected so Wilson only got a majority of 4. At worst he would be the next David Miliband or Michael Portillo and fail to even become leader, let alone win a general election.

If Sunak wants to be the first, like Major he needs to connect with the average voter. That means focusing on low taxes but also a commitment to public services and while opposed to socialism not getting too close to the laissez faire wing of the City and large corporations and the libertarian wing of the Tory right.

Now Brexit has got done austerity and deregulation will not keep the redwall. While any form of wealth tax would be as disastrous as May's dementia tax proved with Tory leaning swing voters

A wealth tax is easily sellable - as I would be binning council tax and stamp duty at the same time.

It also fixes the obvious political landmine that is council tax band revaluation - something that is now 25 years overdue.

TheScreamingEagles

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Does PB break, when a poster gets to 100,000?

My plan is to reach 99,999 posts then reset the post counts.

Am I right in remembering that all the account start dates got reset, in 2013?

Yes, when me moved over to Vanilla.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Sunak could be one of 3 Tory leadership hopefuls. At best he would be the next John Major, who narrowly wins another term for the Tories after ten years in power. Alternatively he could be the next Douglas Home, who narrowly lost a general election after ten years in power but made it closer than expected so Wilson only got a majority of 4. At worst he would be the next David Miliband or Michael Portillo and fail to even become leader, let alone win a general election.

If Sunak wants to be the first, like Major he needs to connect with the average voter. That means focusing on low taxes but also a commitment to public services and while opposed to socialism not getting too close to the laissez faire wing of the City and large corporations and the libertarian wing of the Tory right.

Now Brexit has got done austerity and deregulation will not keep the redwall. While any form of wealth tax would be as disastrous as May's dementia tax proved with Tory leaning swing voters.

I also disagree all alternatives to Boris would be better. Other than maybe Sunak most would probably poll worse than Boris with the public in the end

A new John Major is the best you now have to hope for, pal.

MarqueeMark

I met Rishi Sunak today, for the first time. (SW Conservatives Conference in Plymouth. Not a short journey for him to make from Downing Street.)

He spent two hours working the room, having photos with anyone who wanted, and answering questions from the floor.

Labour should be very worried. I am not a paid up member of his fan club, was not on him at 200/1 so don't have a book talking. But from what I saw today, he will bring back many to the Conservative Party. A very, very impressive performer.

If only there were an opening for the top job....as it is, all that effort today was so much wasted vote-touting....

kle4

I don't know, I'm not fully persuaded by the idea the question is not whether Sunak or someone else would be a much better leader than Boris, but what plans, ideas and vision they have for the country.

Perhaps I am overly technocratic and unambitious, but I feel like vision and ideas are a bonus rather than essential. Parties are supposed to provide an amount of ideological direction, of visions, but as we know in reality they are inconsistent in the extreme and the reality is it is a grab bag of ideas with no real ideology to speak of. Likewise for an individual leader, sure it 'd be nice if they had some plan or vision, but any long term plan would be hard to assess, it would not be able to cover everything, a lot of it would need to be junked in the face of circumstance anyway, and of course they might have a plan, idea and vision, and the talent to pursue it, but their ideas might be crap (cyclefree notes a few Sunak had which were not great).

So I'm not sure in such a complex political structure any proper plan or vision worthy of the name is even possible now, beyond 'spend more here' and vague goals like 'improve x', and then it is just a quesiton of whether the leader is competent and flexible enough to achieve those to some degree.

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Does PB break, when a poster gets to 100,000?

My plan is to reach 99,999 posts then reset the post counts.

Am I right in remembering that all the account start dates got reset, in 2013?

Yes, when me moved over to Vanilla.

OK, well that was a factoid dragged from the depths of my memory.

In which case I started posting here regularly, earlier than 2013.

kinabalu

Descending from the important questions in the Header to the nakedly partisan - apols - I wonder how a Sunak/Starmer match-up would play to the country? I haven't quite worked out a take on this yet. I probably need to since he looks nailed on if and when 'it' finally happens.

eek

Luckyguy1983 said:

Excellent header @Cyclefree. Don't forget, we don't really know what Sunak has up his sleeve to win him the next GE - it would seem silly to take VAT off energy now, when it would benefit Boris. I think he's very good, clear front-runner.

AS was pointed out earlier today - at some point in the near future £35bn of (petrol / diesel) fuel duty tax revenue needs to be replaced. Removing VAT on home usage isn't great when you may need it down the line.

TheScreamingEagles

Steve Barclay has been appointed the new Downing Street chief of staff. He will remain a minister and create a new Office of the Prime Minister across No 10 and the Cabinet Office, where he is now based.

Guto Harri, Boris Johnson’s former spindoctor in City Hall is BACK. He is the new No 10 director of communications after the resignation of Jack Doyle last week. Johnson putting his old gang back together

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1490021415621431299

Scott_xP

TheScreamingEagles said:

Steve Barclay has been appointed the new Downing Street chief of staff. He will remain a minister and create a new Office of the Prime Minister across No 10 and the Cabinet Office, where he is now based.

Guto Harri, Boris Johnson’s former spindoctor in City Hall is BACK. He is the new No 10 director of communications after the resignation of Jack Doyle last week. Johnson putting his old gang back together

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1490021415621431299

We will be told that appointing MPs to staff jobs is a great sign of strengthening relationships with the Parliamentary Party.

This is wrong.

It is a sign of desperation that the only people who will take the jobs are those with no options outside Westminster.

https://twitter.com/pollymackenzie/status/1490024180615729157

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Steve Barclay has been appointed the new Downing Street chief of staff. He will remain a minister and create a new Office of the Prime Minister across No 10 and the Cabinet Office, where he is now based.

Guto Harri, Boris Johnson’s former spindoctor in City Hall is BACK. He is the new No 10 director of communications after the resignation of Jack Doyle last week. Johnson putting his old gang back together

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1490021415621431299

Hmm. They actually think he has a future? Or was Harri unemployed and Barclay told he would be if he didn't accept?

Heathener

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

JBriskin3

pigeon said:

JBriskin3 said:

Azn

Billionaire

Ex-Goldman

Drinks Yorkshire Tea

I would say he's nailed on next Tory leader.

If and when there's finally a vacancy, I think there's a real risk he gets outflanked from the right by Truss.

There is no solution to our problems that doesn't involve rebalancing of taxation away from incomes and towards assets, and that is only going to come (if it ever does) with a Labour Government.

Will it then act, bearing in mind that this is necessarily going to involve at least some soaking of elderly voters' property wealth? No idea.

An interesting couple of points.

First - yup he's not nailed on enough for Truss not to be a contender (I was being a bit hyperbolic)

RE: Tax - I'm not sure Labour would tackle the issue; as far as I'm aware it's only the Lib Dems that have properly approached the issue.

ydoethur

Heathener said:

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

Don't you? Cameron indicates otherwise.

Sandpit

On topic, I’d like to see a PM with experience of running and building a small business, who’s very much aware of the impact of legislation and bureaucracy on holding back success, and prepared to take a scythe to things that get in the way for minimal benefit. Do we have any of those on the green benches?

Scott_xP

Would that be the same Guto Harri that said “hugely divisive” Boris Johnson was “digging his political grave”?
https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-digging-political-grave-says-former-aide-guto-harri/

moonshine

I was thinking today about Dishi’s “so long as I’m in this job” comment at his presser the other day. I think he’s going down on the good ship Johnson, this reported photo of him sitting next to a gurning beer swilling PM might be enough to get him fined. And that would be that. Another person who’s career turns out to be senseless collateral damage in Johnson’s grubby life.

It would sure explain why we seemed to be on the verge of the VONC ages ago but then did not get the nudge over the line from his supporters. There was a story recently with a Sunak loyalist saying “we waited for the nod and it never came”. Would explain why.

Meanwhile it would mean most backbenchers would be looking outside the Cabinet for a replacement, unless they have been seduced by Liz’s fizz or are one of the small number that thinks any of the others are up to it. Which would also explain the delay. If you’re pro Brexit and anti lockdown, who do you go for if Sunak has to recuse himself?

TheScreamingEagles

This is why private schools are the best, they always do the best for their pupils.

Private schools ‘gamed’ Covid rules to give their pupils more top A-levels

Our study of pandemic grade inflation shows that many leading independents at least doubled their clutch of A*s

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-gamed-covid-rules-to-give-their-pupils-more-top-a-levels-6z0z6w9r5

TheScreamingEagles

For a man battling to save his premiership, Boris Johnson was upbeat towards the end of last week. “He keeps yelling ‘Onward!’ at people,” said a No 10 official. The question this weekend among staff and ministers is: to what? “It is unclear if we are heading to the sunlit uplands or the valley of death,” one aide said.

Many MPs and even close aides are still contemplating the end of Johnson’s time in charge after a bruising week in which he lost five senior aides and the number of MPs calling for him to resign kept rising.

Nonetheless, allies say he is determined to cling on. “He’s making very clear that they’ll have to send a Panzer division to get him out of there,” said one senior adviser.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

solarflare

kinabalu said:

Descending from the important questions in the Header to the nakedly partisan - apols - I wonder how a Sunak/Starmer match-up would play to the country? I haven't quite worked myself out a take on this yet. I do probably need to since he looks nailed on if and when 'it' finally happens.

Starmer's only real appeal is that he is the boring-but-competent one against the charismatic but flawed partygate buffoonery of Boris (being generous to Boris there).

Sunak would essentially occupy the same boring-but-competent territory. Which is bad for Starmer.

Scott_xP

NEW: I understand that Henry Newman, close friend of Carrie Johnson, will be leaving his post in No 10. Tory MPs were demanding his head. He and BJ have agreed a sideays move which is likely to see him return to work with Michael Gove
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

ClippP

MarqueeMark said:

I met Rishi Sunak today, for the first time. (SW Conservatives Conference in Plymouth. Not a short journey for him to make from Downing Street.)

He spent two hours working the room, having photos with anyone who wanted, and answering questions from the floor.

Labour should be very worried. I am not a paid up member of his fan club, was not on him at 200/1 so don't have a book talking. But from what I saw today, he will bring back many to the Conservative Party. A very, very impressive performer.

If only there were an opening for the top job....as it is, all that effort today was so much wasted vote-touting....

Were Liz and the other one working the room too, Mr Mark? How did they go down?

Heathener

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

Don't you? Cameron indicates otherwise.

Well for a start Cameron is now widely reviled by the British population so what worked 15 years ago isn't the same now.

Secondly, to an extent Cameron was born to it and was more landed gentry of the old school one nation, soft centre left (albeit patronising feudal) type.

Bankers are loathed by most Brits still, hedge fund managers as much.

And nothing about MarqueeMark's post makes me worried. The Conservatives don't need someone capable of schmooooozing the tory faithful. They need someone who can win back our trust.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

For a man battling to save his premiership, Boris Johnson was upbeat towards the end of last week. “He keeps yelling ‘Onward!’ at people,” said a No 10 official. The question this weekend among staff and ministers is: to what? “It is unclear if we are heading to the sunlit uplands or the valley of death,” one aide said.

Many MPs and even close aides are still contemplating the end of Johnson’s time in charge after a bruising week in which he lost five senior aides and the number of MPs calling for him to resign kept rising.

Nonetheless, allies say he is determined to cling on. “He’s making very clear that they’ll have to send a Panzer division to get him out of there,” said one senior adviser.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

I'd hope, though I know I'd not do it in the same situation, that such talk would prompt more resistance, not less. When someone talks so much of how they'll fight to stay on, it's designed to discourage people from taking up the fight, but it should tell those with concerns that there is no point in waiting and hoping for someone to do the right thing, and you must act.

HYUFD

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

Don't you? Cameron indicates otherwise.

Cameron never worked in the City before election, he was a SPAD and head of PR for Carlton.

Sunak worked for Goldman Sachs and a hedge fund

Heathener

Scott_xP said:

NEW: I understand that Henry Newman, close friend of Carrie Johnson, will be leaving his post in No 10.

The tory pin up boy. Oh dear.

TheScreamingEagles

Three different sources say that Carrie Johnson has grown weary of the pressure on her, their children and her husband, and has privately voiced the view that it might be preferable if he were to throw in the towel.

One who knows the couple and the prime minister’s inner circle well said: “She was saying she had had enough a couple of weeks ago. She was telling friends the pressure on her was too much and she’d be happier if he left.” A friend of Carrie added: “She just wants to focus on her children.”

It is not claimed she is telling her husband to resign; indeed, some of them think that is unlikely. But the pressure will only intensify this weekend with the publication of extracts from a biography bankrolled by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft. The book is expected to make claims about the extent of Carrie’s influence over No 10 policy. It also repeats allegations that she fiddled her expenses when she communications director of the Conservative Party, something she has always denied.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

eek

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why private schools are the best, they always do the best for their pupils.

Private schools ‘gamed’ Covid rules to give their pupils more top A-levels

Our study of pandemic grade inflation shows that many leading independents at least doubled their clutch of A*s

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-gamed-covid-rules-to-give-their-pupils-more-top-a-levels-6z0z6w9r5

3 A*s from a private school - nice set of B's you got there...

Luckyguy1983

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Punching up or down is an absolutely foolish line that some people take. If you don't believe in 'nasty' comedy, that's fine. And if you do, that's fine. But having special protected groups or particular targets (who alone can be subjected to the most extreme humour) is to hold no principle on the boundary of taste or free speech at all, but an arbitrary preference for one side or against another.

To concisely rephrase: it's a crock of shit.

I have a theory that the people preoccupied with issues of race are those who are, in actuality, racist. The opposite of a racist isn't an 'anti-racist', it's someone who sees no colour, just likes everyone, with no prior judgements, until given a reason to do otherwise. 'Punching down' is a deeply racist idiom.

I don't think that's a very plausible theory, to be honest. The people I know who think about these issues a lot are mostly people who have experienced racism, frequently pretty nasty racism at that. Accusing them of being racists sounds an awful lot like gaslighting.

I'm not sure the term gaslighting is very helpful, however (it rarely is). That theory may well be wrong, but is someone advaancing it truly gaslighting? It's not been hard to find people who have suggested X cannot be a racist because they are a great anti-racist, yet in fact X has said racist things (the classic example would be the sort of thing Baddiel details). In that situation it wouldn't be gaslighting to call someone a racist even though they would see themselves as anti-racist, even though labelling anyone who who is preoccupied with these issues as racist would be incorrect.

I think that calling someone who talks about racism because they experience racism a racist is a textbook example of gaslighting to be honest.

But that was not the original proposition. The original 'theory' was about people 'preoccupied with issues of race'. That will undoubtedly include people who have experienced racism, but is not the full extent of them. Indeed, many people are rightly and positively interested in issues of race without having experienced racism themselves.

So even if the theory was bollocks I don't think anyone suggested the approach you are calling gaslighting. Indeed, is it gaslighting to imply that was what was suggested? Am I gaslighting by suggesting that your suggestion was not the original suggestion?

I can only go by my own experience, which is that people who are "preoccupied by race" are people who face racism and have the "preoccupation" forced upon them. If there are people who just woke up one day and decided to become obsessed by race for no reason I can only say that I have never met them.

Personally I think the idea those preoccupied by matters of race are likely to be racist is not correct - at what point does it become being 'preoccupied' for a start - though people concerned with such matters are not immune from doing or saying racist things, but I think it is a bit against the current zeitgeist to act as though people who have not experienced racism cannot be preoccupied with racial issues - plenty of allies out there seeking to help raise and address these issues.

Have you really never met anyone who is very keen on racial and equalities matters who is not necessarily someone with personal experience of such matters? I may joke about some politically correct terminology or the like, but I think it is a good thing people beyond an oppressed group can care a lot about these things.

But there's a strong element of 'physician heal thyself' about many such people. Take the (in)actions of the police service in Rotherham. Their inaction (in the cause of community cohesion) strongly suggests that they themselves believed that the widespread abuse of girls was cultural. If those in charge had simply prosecuted these crimes as crimes at the earliest stage, it would never have escalated in the way that it did. The same is surely true of those who are strongly against stop and search. They're worried about what will be found, because they personally have a racist belief about young black men. Or those who want to end 'white academic education' because they claim it disadvantages black children. The implications of that belief in particular are surely unspeakably racist.

pigeon

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why private schools are the best, they always do the best for their pupils.

Private schools ‘gamed’ Covid rules to give their pupils more top A-levels

Our study of pandemic grade inflation shows that many leading independents at least doubled their clutch of A*s

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-gamed-covid-rules-to-give-their-pupils-more-top-a-levels-6z0z6w9r5

"If Old Labour had bulldozed Eton in the Seventies then almost everyone's life would be better today." Discuss.

Heathener

solarflare said:

kinabalu said:

Descending from the important questions in the Header to the nakedly partisan - apols - I wonder how a Sunak/Starmer match-up would play to the country? I haven't quite worked myself out a take on this yet. I do probably need to since he looks nailed on if and when 'it' finally happens.

Starmer's only real appeal is that he is the boring-but-competent one against the charismatic but flawed partygate buffoonery of Boris (being generous to Boris there).

Sunak would essentially occupy the same boring-but-competent territory. Which is bad for Starmer.

Except that one has a modicum of working class background and a trusted profession.

The other is the richest person in Parliament and was a banker. Replace the first letter & you have how most people view them.

Theuniondivvie

Penalty try?

Ha!

TheScreamingEagles

Oh FFS, did DavidL just say England are going to win this?

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sunak could be one of 3 Tory leadership hopefuls. At best he would be the next John Major, who narrowly wins another term for the Tories after ten years in power. Alternatively he could be the next Douglas Home, who narrowly lost a general election after ten years in power but made it closer than expected so Wilson only got a majority of 4. At worst he would be the next David Miliband or Michael Portillo and fail to even become leader, let alone win a general election.

If Sunak wants to be the first, like Major he needs to connect with the average voter. That means focusing on low taxes but also a commitment to public services and while opposed to socialism not getting too close to the laissez faire wing of the City and large corporations and the libertarian wing of the Tory right.

Now Brexit has got done austerity and deregulation will not keep the redwall. While any form of wealth tax would be as disastrous as May's dementia tax proved with Tory leaning swing voters.

I also disagree all alternatives to Boris would be better. Other than maybe Sunak most would probably poll worse than Boris with the public in the end

A new John Major is the best you now have to hope for, pal.

Fair enough but when have Labour ever won a fourth or fifth consecutive general election? Never. The best they managed was 3 consecutive general election wins under Blair

Leon

Stupid, stupid England

Scott_xP

NEW DANGER FOR BORIS: Dominic Cummings has a series of WhatsApp groups where officials in No 10/Cab Office and CCHQ who want Johnson out are leaking him information. Expect to see the fruits of that in a blog early next week https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

eek

TheScreamingEagles said:

Three different sources say that Carrie Johnson has grown weary of the pressure on her, their children and her husband, and has privately voiced the view that it might be preferable if he were to throw in the towel.

One who knows the couple and the prime minister’s inner circle well said: “She was saying she had had enough a couple of weeks ago. She was telling friends the pressure on her was too much and she’d be happier if he left.” A friend of Carrie added: “She just wants to focus on her children.”

It is not claimed she is telling her husband to resign; indeed, some of them think that is unlikely. But the pressure will only intensify this weekend with the publication of extracts from a biography bankrolled by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft. The book is expected to make claims about the extent of Carrie’s influence over No 10 policy. It also repeats allegations that she fiddled her expenses when she communications director of the Conservative Party, something she has always denied.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

Bozo is going to regret not leaving last Summer as the vaccination program worked and Brexit had been successfully completed. It's been all downhill since then.

Theuniondivvie

Wheels falling off..

Running on bare axles now

Scott_xP

NEW: I'm told Dominic Cummings has a spy in the Tory treasurer's department who has been feeding him information about what he considers to be Johnson's misuse of party funds. MORE HERE: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

HYUFD

Heathener said:

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

Sunak has a net worth of £200 million and is son in law of a billionaire. He would be the richest PM in the modern era and also while not as posh as Home or Cameron, being Winchester and Oxford educated still pretty posh himself

kle4

Stupid bloody decision by the player.

Heathener

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sunak could be one of 3 Tory leadership hopefuls. At best he would be the next John Major, who narrowly wins another term for the Tories after ten years in power. Alternatively he could be the next Douglas Home, who narrowly lost a general election after ten years in power but made it closer than expected so Wilson only got a majority of 4. At worst he would be the next David Miliband or Michael Portillo and fail to even become leader, let alone win a general election.

If Sunak wants to be the first, like Major he needs to connect with the average voter. That means focusing on low taxes but also a commitment to public services and while opposed to socialism not getting too close to the laissez faire wing of the City and large corporations and the libertarian wing of the Tory right.

Now Brexit has got done austerity and deregulation will not keep the redwall. While any form of wealth tax would be as disastrous as May's dementia tax proved with Tory leaning swing voters.

I also disagree all alternatives to Boris would be better. Other than maybe Sunak most would probably poll worse than Boris with the public in the end

A new John Major is the best you now have to hope for, pal.

Fair enough but when have Labour ever won a fourth or fifth consecutive general election? Never. The best they managed was 3 consecutive general election wins under Blair

The Conservatives haven't this time either. Both Cameron and May had an NOM each.

Leon

Why take off Marcus Smith?

Rubbish

Eabhal

Cheating English

pigeon

Leon said:

Stupid, stupid England

At least they aren't as shit as the cricketers.

Am watching Burnley v Watford instead. Far less painful.

Heathener

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why private schools are the best, they always do the best for their pupils.

Private schools ‘gamed’ Covid rules to give their pupils more top A-levels

Our study of pandemic grade inflation shows that many leading independents at least doubled their clutch of A*s

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-gamed-covid-rules-to-give-their-pupils-more-top-a-levels-6z0z6w9r5

"If Old Labour had bulldozed Eton in the Seventies then almost everyone's life would be better today." Discuss.

Well said

TheScreamingEagles

Sunak remains in a strong position. A new Focal Data poll today, commissioned by Hanover Communications, shows he has the best chance of reaching voters in the red wall seats that flipped to the Tories in 2019 and outstrips closest rivals in the Conservatives’ southeastern heartlands.

Combining first and second preferences for the next prime minister puts Sunak (35 per cent) ahead of Starmer (33 per cent) and Johnson (30 per cent). In the red wall Sunak is on 35 per cent compared to Starmer on 32 per cent, and Johnson on 29 per cent. Taking both first and second preferences into account in the Tory heartlands Sunak leads (50 per cent) compared with both Johnson (38 per cent) and Starmer (17 per cent).

The poll echoes a Survation survey for the Labour Party, shared with MPs last week, which found that only by keeping Johnson in place could Starmer win the next election. If the Tories swapped Johnson for Sunak or Liz Truss, Starmer would lose.

Scott_xP

Steve Barclay wasn't included in the runners and riders list in The Times this morning, because frankly the idea of a sitting member of Cabinet taking on the Chief of Staff role, alongside existing ministerial and constituency duties, is absurd.
https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1490027312523395073
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1490021304946368517

kinabalu

solarflare said:

kinabalu said:

Descending from the important questions in the Header to the nakedly partisan - apols - I wonder how a Sunak/Starmer match-up would play to the country? I haven't quite worked myself out a take on this yet. I do probably need to since he looks nailed on if and when 'it' finally happens.

Starmer's only real appeal is that he is the boring-but-competent one against the charismatic but flawed partygate buffoonery of Boris (being generous to Boris there).

Sunak would essentially occupy the same boring-but-competent territory. Which is bad for Starmer.

But at the GE this bland 'just another Tory' Sunak will be asking the country to extend its spell of (just another) Tory government from 14 years to 19 years. Is he better positioned than an outlier like "Boris" to do this? Hmm, maybe, maybe not. And if things are up shit creek, as they probably will be, I think I'd incline towards the 'not'.

Sandpit

Scott_xP said:

NEW DANGER FOR BORIS: Dominic Cummings has a series of WhatsApp groups where officials in No 10/Cab Office and CCHQ who want Johnson out are leaking him information. Expect to see the fruits of that in a blog early next week https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paralysed-in-no-10-are-the-pm-and-his-wife-ready-to-let-it-go-2kdcnrhss

The first thing a new PM needs to do, is hand monitored ‘work’ phones to everyone in No.10 and the Cabinet Office, and ban personal devices from the office.

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sunak could be one of 3 Tory leadership hopefuls. At best he would be the next John Major, who narrowly wins another term for the Tories after ten years in power. Alternatively he could be the next Douglas Home, who narrowly lost a general election after ten years in power but made it closer than expected so Wilson only got a majority of 4. At worst he would be the next David Miliband or Michael Portillo and fail to even become leader, let alone win a general election.

If Sunak wants to be the first, like Major he needs to connect with the average voter. That means focusing on low taxes but also a commitment to public services and while opposed to socialism not getting too close to the laissez faire wing of the City and large corporations and the libertarian wing of the Tory right.

Now Brexit has got done austerity and deregulation will not keep the redwall. While any form of wealth tax would be as disastrous as May's dementia tax proved with Tory leaning swing voters.

I also disagree all alternatives to Boris would be better. Other than maybe Sunak most would probably poll worse than Boris with the public in the end

A new John Major is the best you now have to hope for, pal.

Fair enough but when have Labour ever won a fourth or fifth consecutive general election? Never. The best they managed was 3 consecutive general election wins under Blair

The last time a political party won a fifth consecutive general election was 1826. The only time since then a party has even won four on the spin was 1992.

So it's not that surprising.

Leon

Scotland will win this, but I wouldn’t get over excited. A poor performance, and a lucky victory

I don’t think Ireland and France will be overly concerned

tlg86

On topic, how do we define fairness? It seems to me that fairness today is defined as "giving money to people like me".

HYUFD

Heathener said:

solarflare said:

kinabalu said:

Descending from the important questions in the Header to the nakedly partisan - apols - I wonder how a Sunak/Starmer match-up would play to the country? I haven't quite worked myself out a take on this yet. I do probably need to since he looks nailed on if and when 'it' finally happens.

Starmer's only real appeal is that he is the boring-but-competent one against the charismatic but flawed partygate buffoonery of Boris (being generous to Boris there).

Sunak would essentially occupy the same boring-but-competent territory. Which is bad for Starmer.

Except that one has a modicum of working class background and a trusted profession.

The other is the richest person in Parliament and was a banker. Replace the first letter & you have how most people view them.

Starmer also attended a private school and Oxford for postgraduate studies after Leeds. He was also a lawyer who are almost as unloved as bankers.

Heathener

Theuniondivvie said:

Wheels falling off..

Running on bare axles now

Who? England? Or Boris Johnson?

Or both?

Razedabode

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

Sunak has a net worth of £200 million and is son in law of a billionaire. He would be the richest PM in the modern era and also while not as posh as Home or Cameron, being Winchester and Oxford educated still pretty posh himself

I don’t care how rich someone is. I do care about overall competence and image

kle4

Maybe the cricket team could play rugby and the rugby team play cricket?

MarqueeMark

Heathener said:

ydoethur said:

Heathener said:

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

Don't you? Cameron indicates otherwise.

Well for a start Cameron is now widely reviled by the British population so what worked 15 years ago isn't the same now.

Secondly, to an extent Cameron was born to it and was more landed gentry of the old school one nation, soft centre left (albeit patronising feudal) type.

Bankers are loathed by most Brits still, hedge fund managers as much.

And nothing about MarqueeMark's post makes me worried. The Conservatives don't need someone capable of schmooooozing the tory faithful. They need someone who can win back our trust.

This post is a keeper....

HYUFD

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Sunak could be one of 3 Tory leadership hopefuls. At best he would be the next John Major, who narrowly wins another term for the Tories after ten years in power. Alternatively he could be the next Douglas Home, who narrowly lost a general election after ten years in power but made it closer than expected so Wilson only got a majority of 4. At worst he would be the next David Miliband or Michael Portillo and fail to even become leader, let alone win a general election.

If Sunak wants to be the first, like Major he needs to connect with the average voter. That means focusing on low taxes but also a commitment to public services and while opposed to socialism not getting too close to the laissez faire wing of the City and large corporations and the libertarian wing of the Tory right.

Now Brexit has got done austerity and deregulation will not keep the redwall. While any form of wealth tax would be as disastrous as May's dementia tax proved with Tory leaning swing voters.

I also disagree all alternatives to Boris would be better. Other than maybe Sunak most would probably poll worse than Boris with the public in the end

A new John Major is the best you now have to hope for, pal.

Fair enough but when have Labour ever won a fourth or fifth consecutive general election? Never. The best they managed was 3 consecutive general election wins under Blair

The last time a political party won a fifth consecutive general election was 1826. The only time since then a party has even won four on the spin was 1992.

So it's not that surprising.

Yes and if the Tories win the next general election under Sunak or Boris or whoever they will match Lord Liverpool's record set in 1826 of a remarkable 5 consecutive terms in power.

Major the only other party leader to win a general election after ten years of their party in power

Razedabode

Whilst I drown my sorrows at this England rugby turnaround, there’s some better news - Lewis Hamilton has returned!

Would expect him to be up for some revenge

Scott_xP

All is not well on the populist right wing. https://twitter.com/ukip/status/1490028772535451648

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunak remains in a strong position. A new Focal Data poll today, commissioned by Hanover Communications, shows he has the best chance of reaching voters in the red wall seats that flipped to the Tories in 2019 and outstrips closest rivals in the Conservatives’ southeastern heartlands.

Combining first and second preferences for the next prime minister puts Sunak (35 per cent) ahead of Starmer (33 per cent) and Johnson (30 per cent). In the red wall Sunak is on 35 per cent compared to Starmer on 32 per cent, and Johnson on 29 per cent. Taking both first and second preferences into account in the Tory heartlands Sunak leads (50 per cent) compared with both Johnson (38 per cent) and Starmer (17 per cent).

The poll echoes a Survation survey for the Labour Party, shared with MPs last week, which found that only by keeping Johnson in place could Starmer win the next election. If the Tories swapped Johnson for Sunak or Liz Truss, Starmer would lose.

How could Johnson be the 'next' Prime Minister? That's either a stupid question or clumsy phrasing by the reporter.

Scott_xP

Key thing about tonight's appointments is that Guto Harri and Steve Barclay have very different political outlooks. What people have been desperate for from No.10 is clarity over Boris's direction. This tells me he still isn't clear in his own mind what that direction is.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1490029664722636806

HYUFD

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why private schools are the best, they always do the best for their pupils.

Private schools ‘gamed’ Covid rules to give their pupils more top A-levels

Our study of pandemic grade inflation shows that many leading independents at least doubled their clutch of A*s

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-gamed-covid-rules-to-give-their-pupils-more-top-a-levels-6z0z6w9r5

"If Old Labour had bulldozed Eton in the Seventies then almost everyone's life would be better today." Discuss.

"If Old Labour had not bulldozed most of the Grammar schools in the Sixties and Seventies then almost everyone's life would be better today." Discuss

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why private schools are the best, they always do the best for their pupils.

Private schools ‘gamed’ Covid rules to give their pupils more top A-levels

Our study of pandemic grade inflation shows that many leading independents at least doubled their clutch of A*s

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-gamed-covid-rules-to-give-their-pupils-more-top-a-levels-6z0z6w9r5

"If Old Labour had bulldozed Eton in the Seventies then almost everyone's life would be better today." Discuss.

"If Old Labour had not bulldozed most of the Grammar schools in the Sixties and Seventies then almost everyone's life would be better today." Discuss

Apart from the people who didn't get into the grammar schools I presume

SeaShantyIrish2

Excellent piece by Cyclefree, even better than her usual high standard.

Very timely AND forward-looking, with plenty of food for thought regardless of personal / partisan / ideological / sociological / historical viewpoint, in general OR specific re: Rishi Sunak.

TheScreamingEagles

Dirty Scotland, that should be a red card.

I'd rather lose than win the way Scotland have played today.

MarqueeMark

Razedabode said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

I still don't think the British public will stomach a multi-millionare banker, hedge fund manager especially in the dark financial days ahead.

The tory party? That's a different story.

Sunak has a net worth of £200 million and is son in law of a billionaire. He would be the richest PM in the modern era and also while not as posh as Home or Cameron, being Winchester and Oxford educated still pretty posh himself

I don’t care how rich someone is. I do care about overall competence and image

On the other hand, he will be able to pay for his own refurbishing of Downing Street without the helping hand of a donor.....

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunak remains in a strong position. A new Focal Data poll today, commissioned by Hanover Communications, shows he has the best chance of reaching voters in the red wall seats that flipped to the Tories in 2019 and outstrips closest rivals in the Conservatives’ southeastern heartlands.

Combining first and second preferences for the next prime minister puts Sunak (35 per cent) ahead of Starmer (33 per cent) and Johnson (30 per cent). In the red wall Sunak is on 35 per cent compared to Starmer on 32 per cent, and Johnson on 29 per cent. Taking both first and second preferences into account in the Tory heartlands Sunak leads (50 per cent) compared with both Johnson (38 per cent) and Starmer (17 per cent).

The poll echoes a Survation survey for the Labour Party, shared with MPs last week, which found that only by keeping Johnson in place could Starmer win the next election. If the Tories swapped Johnson for Sunak or Liz Truss, Starmer would lose.

35% would still not give the Tories a majority again though.

I have also yet to see a poll where Truss does better than Boris v Starmer, even if some show Sunak doing better

Heathener

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

solarflare said:

kinabalu said:

Descending from the important questions in the Header to the nakedly partisan - apols - I wonder how a Sunak/Starmer match-up would play to the country? I haven't quite worked myself out a take on this yet. I do probably need to since he looks nailed on if and when 'it' finally happens.

Starmer's only real appeal is that he is the boring-but-competent one against the charismatic but flawed partygate buffoonery of Boris (being generous to Boris there).

Sunak would essentially occupy the same boring-but-competent territory. Which is bad for Starmer.

Except that one has a modicum of working class background and a trusted profession.

The other is the richest person in Parliament and was a banker. Replace the first letter & you have how most people view them.

lawyer who are almost as unloved as bankers.

Utterly untrue as Mike Smithson demonstrated the other day.

IPSOS MORI (One of your two permitted pollsters):

Other professions trusted by more than half of the public include museum curators, the police, lawyers, civil servants, the ordinary man/woman on the street and clergy/priests.
Professions with negative net trust ratings include bankers, local councillors, business leaders, professional footballers, estate agents and journalists.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-mori-veracity-index-2020-trust-in-professions


Chronicle Live:

Judges +83%
Bankers 41%

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/revealed-most-trusted-professions-uk-15441401


Valuewalk:

Lawyer = 2nd most respected career

https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/03/top-10-most-respected-professions/

RandallFlagg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunak remains in a strong position. A new Focal Data poll today, commissioned by Hanover Communications, shows he has the best chance of reaching voters in the red wall seats that flipped to the Tories in 2019 and outstrips closest rivals in the Conservatives’ southeastern heartlands.

Combining first and second preferences for the next prime minister puts Sunak (35 per cent) ahead of Starmer (33 per cent) and Johnson (30 per cent). In the red wall Sunak is on 35 per cent compared to Starmer on 32 per cent, and Johnson on 29 per cent. Taking both first and second preferences into account in the Tory heartlands Sunak leads (50 per cent) compared with both Johnson (38 per cent) and Starmer (17 per cent).

The poll echoes a Survation survey for the Labour Party, shared with MPs last week, which found that only by keeping Johnson in place could Starmer win the next election. If the Tories swapped Johnson for Sunak or Liz Truss, Starmer would lose.

I doubt people would prefer Truss to Starmer once they actually saw as her PM for a while. Labour would much rather be facing off against her than Sunak come the election.

pigeon

tlg86 said:

On topic, how do we define fairness? It seems to me that fairness today is defined as "giving money to people like me".

It's more often than not actually a case of "spending on this, this, this and this is a good idea and all very important - just so long as the funds are extracted from anyone and everyone except me." This is the major barrier to progress: there's enough acceptance of redistributive policies out there, but any given taxpayer tends to believe that the money always has to come either from:

(a) "the rich," typically defined either as billionaires and huge corporations (from whom you can extract more, but not nearly enough,) or everyone who has slightly more in assets and/or earnings than I do, or
(b) everyone, except for a certain number of specially exempt groups in society - pensioners, people with dependent children, NHS workers, whatever - and I just so happen to be a member of one or more of those groups

In theory, everyone likes fair; in practice, everyone also has an explanation for why asking them to pay more wouldn't be fair. So we make no progress.

Razedabode

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunak remains in a strong position. A new Focal Data poll today, commissioned by Hanover Communications, shows he has the best chance of reaching voters in the red wall seats that flipped to the Tories in 2019 and outstrips closest rivals in the Conservatives’ southeastern heartlands.

Combining first and second preferences for the next prime minister puts Sunak (35 per cent) ahead of Starmer (33 per cent) and Johnson (30 per cent). In the red wall Sunak is on 35 per cent compared to Starmer on 32 per cent, and Johnson on 29 per cent. Taking both first and second preferences into account in the Tory heartlands Sunak leads (50 per cent) compared with both Johnson (38 per cent) and Starmer (17 per cent).

The poll echoes a Survation survey for the Labour Party, shared with MPs last week, which found that only by keeping Johnson in place could Starmer win the next election. If the Tories swapped Johnson for Sunak or Liz Truss, Starmer would lose.

35% would still not give the Tories a majority again though.

I have also yet to see a poll where Truss does better than Boris v Starmer, even if some show Sunak doing better

Ah, you fancy being totally annihilated under Johnson instead of having a chance under Sunak?