politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Garethofthevale said:

Interesting to see in that poll a big drop in the Lab share. Would have expected it to be up considering the LDs also see a predicted large drop.

Could be some tactical voting for UKIP to give the Cons a bloody nose but doesn't bode particularly well for Ed

Ed will still be the big winner from Clacton - all the way to number 10 - the Kippers will be made up with this out come too.

Indeed. Ed becoming PM stops a referendum in 2017. a referendum which the Kippers don't want to happen.

Pulpstar said:

Lennon said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Interesting to see in that poll a big drop in the Lab share. Would have expected it to be up considering the LDs also see a predicted large drop.

Could be some tactical voting for UKIP to give the Cons a bloody nose but doesn't bode particularly well for Ed

Lib Dems have switched to Labour, Labour has switched to UKIP and staying at home.

When was the last time the Lib Dems, Cons, Labour ALL lost vote share at an election ?
Scotland sometime ?

Bradford West - 2012?

Yep - unfortunately for Dave UKIP is more than just a 1 man band.

AndyJS said:

Does anyone seriously believe either Cameron or Ed can win a majority next year?

AndyJS said:

Does anyone seriously believe either Cameron or Ed can win a majority next year?

Neil said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Garethofthevale said:

Interesting to see in that poll a big drop in the Lab share. Would have expected it to be up considering the LDs also see a predicted large drop.

Could be some tactical voting for UKIP to give the Cons a bloody nose but doesn't bode particularly well for Ed

Ed will still be the big winner from Clacton - all the way to number 10 - the Kippers will be made up with this out come too.

Indeed. Ed becoming PM stops a referendum in 2017. a referendum which the Kippers don't want to happen.

Dave as PM is no guarantee... If he is in coalition it's not happening

Not so.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/29/david-cameron-eu-referendum_n_5230769.html

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

Garethofthevale said:

Interesting to see in that poll a big drop in the Lab share. Would have expected it to be up considering the LDs also see a predicted large drop.

Could be some tactical voting for UKIP to give the Cons a bloody nose but doesn't bode particularly well for Ed

Ed will still be the big winner from Clacton - all the way to number 10 - the Kippers will be made up with this out come too.

Indeed. Ed becoming PM stops a referendum in 2017. a referendum which the Kippers don't want to happen.

Dave as PM is no guarantee... If he is in coalition it's not happening

Wishful thinking from the Kippers - look to Scotland and how YES are winning against the odds - take a leap and stop being so scared...

Stuart_Dickson said:

- LD 2% (-10.9%)

Where is Mark Senior when you want him?

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Kate Maltby — "Tory morale has collapsed – again":

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/katemaltby/100284781/tory-morale-has-collapsed-again/

"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."

I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.

I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Does anyone seriously believe either Cameron or Ed can win a majority next year?

Ed - Yes.
Dave - No.

NOM has deserved favouritism though.

I'd make a Tory Overall Majority about a 10% chance (9/1).

I agree NOM should be favorite - and a little shorter, as should an Ed Overall.

Casino_Royale said:

Also Neil Hamilton should hang up his coat; he's a has-been with far too much history.

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Kate Maltby — "Tory morale has collapsed – again":

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/katemaltby/100284781/tory-morale-has-collapsed-again/

"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."

I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.

I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.

He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Also Neil Hamilton should hang up his coat; he's a has-been with far too much history.

Agreed. Christine should be the one standing instead of her husband

rcs1000 said:

Icarus said:

Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.

He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.

Stuart_Dickson said:

stodge said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

- LD 2% (-10.9%)

Where is Mark Senior when you want him?

Well, I'm not Mark but I'll simply offer two thoughts - 1) at least the poll share hasn't dropped since Survation and 2) given the party only polled 13% in 2010, I suspect it wasn't at the top of anyone's target list.

It is far from inevitable that poorly placed parties collapse at by-elections. That characteristic seems to belong purely to the Lib Dems these days.

Witness how the oft-derided Scottish Tories have performed when squeezed:

Inverclyde by-election (Westminster), 2011, 4th place on 12%, vote held up respectably (-2.1) and moved up to 3rd place.

Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 3rd place on 8.1%, vote held up respectably (-0.4) and moved down to 4th place.

Dunfermline by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 4th place on 7.1%, increased by 1.2 points

Cowdenbeath by-election (Holyrood), 2014, 3rd place on 7.0%, increased by 2.4 points

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Does anyone seriously believe either Cameron or Ed can win a majority next year?

Ed - Yes.
Dave - No.

NOM has deserved favouritism though.

I'd make a Tory Overall Majority about a 10% chance (9/1).

AndyJS said:

NP said yesterday that Carswell's defection hadn't had much effect on UKIP support.

5 polls since the defection: UKIP average = 15.6%
5 polls before the defection: UKIP average = 13.6%

A 2 point / 15% increase seems like a significant change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

Swiss_Bob said:

Not forgetting anyone with a European passport can now come and work here since I forget, though the people have voted to revoke that, I think. Whether the Govt can get away with ignoring the people I'm not sure.

HurstLlama said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Kate Maltby — "Tory morale has collapsed – again":

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/katemaltby/100284781/tory-morale-has-collapsed-again/

"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."

I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.

I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.

He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.

I don't know about that. Thirty-six can be funny age the start of the end of youth, that big 40 birthday is now firmly in sight and yet one seems to have achieved so little of what one set out to do. It can be a time to rush when there aren't enough hours in a day and time spent in a job one isn't enjoying or at least that takes you forward is massively wasted. Its all bollocks of course but you don't realise that until you get to sixty.

There were if memory serves about 150 new Conservative MPs in 2010. Of which nine have either gone or announced they won't stand again. A "wastage" rate of somewhat less than 10% after five years. In public sector terms I think that is very low. Take any group of 150 new entrants to any job in the public sector and more than 10% of them will have gone in the first five years. It maybe the same in the private sector, I wouldn't know.

Pulpstar said:

HurstLlama said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Kate Maltby — "Tory morale has collapsed – again":

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/katemaltby/100284781/tory-morale-has-collapsed-again/

"Chris Kelly is a man of such ambition that at university he and his friend Justin Tomlinson bet £100 that one of them would be prime minister by 2038. If he sees no point in defending his 3,856 majority in 2015 – and contrary to rumour, doesn’t fancy his chances with Ukip – the flame really has gone out of the hearts of the pushiest of Tory Boys."

I know Chris well from my time at Conservative Future. He was always very ambitious and a well connected and popular young Thatcherite.

I'm friends with him on Facebook and he posted a touchingly personal status update yesterday. I have no idea why he resigned, but perhaps he decided it wasn't worth it and there are more important things in life.

He's only 36, so he could have stayed on a bit longer in the Commons and still had time to do other things.

I don't know about that. Thirty-six can be funny age the start of the end of youth, that big 40 birthday is now firmly in sight and yet one seems to have achieved so little of what one set out to do. It can be a time to rush when there aren't enough hours in a day and time spent in a job one isn't enjoying or at least that takes you forward is massively wasted. Its all bollocks of course but you don't realise that until you get to sixty.

There were if memory serves about 150 new Conservative MPs in 2010. Of which nine have either gone or announced they won't stand again. A "wastage" rate of somewhat less than 10% after five years. In public sector terms I think that is very low. Take any group of 150 new entrants to any job in the public sector and more than 10% of them will have gone in the first five years. It maybe the same in the private sector, I wouldn't know.

Shit ! I'm 33 >< - 3 years till the end is nigh...

rcs1000 said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

stodge said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

- LD 2% (-10.9%)

Where is Mark Senior when you want him?

Well, I'm not Mark but I'll simply offer two thoughts - 1) at least the poll share hasn't dropped since Survation and 2) given the party only polled 13% in 2010, I suspect it wasn't at the top of anyone's target list.

It is far from inevitable that poorly placed parties collapse at by-elections. That characteristic seems to belong purely to the Lib Dems these days.

Witness how the oft-derided Scottish Tories have performed when squeezed:

Inverclyde by-election (Westminster), 2011, 4th place on 12%, vote held up respectably (-2.1) and moved up to 3rd place.

Aberdeen Donside by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 3rd place on 8.1%, vote held up respectably (-0.4) and moved down to 4th place.

Dunfermline by-election (Holyrood), 2013, 4th place on 7.1%, increased by 1.2 points

Cowdenbeath by-election (Holyrood), 2014, 3rd place on 7.0%, increased by 2.4 points

UKIP is now the recipient of the "none of the above, I want a new form of politics" vote.

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

Icarus said:

Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.

He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.

"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."

Another post that shows why we need the like button back.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpath said:

volcanopete said:

... He knows enough about HoC procedure to place roadblocks across much of the Tory agenda,....

Previouisly he said
'The Out campaign must not descend into any kind of angry nativism. First and second generation Britons must feel as comfortable voting to quit the EU as those whose ancestors came over before William the Conqueror.'
He says we should be like Switzerland, 'where one in five workers is non-Swiss. Or Australia, where thousands of new arrivals become new Australians each year'.
Farage says immigration has left Britain 'unrecognisable'.

Lets remember that the EU migrants are broadly transitory unlike the great influx of permanant immigrants to Australia that Carswell is in favour of. But Carswsell if we are to believe what he has said is not for 'Britain First' - he wants to encourage defence contracts to be placed abroad.

It could be of course that Farage agrees with Carwsell and is only whipping up the gullible kipper gumballs as a means to an end. LiLabConKip?

Of course both Switzerland and Australia have strict controls on who comes into the country unlike the UK which has an open door policy to the whole of the EU. Migration is good but controls are necessary at all levels to ensure it properly benefits both the migrants and the new host country. Many countries have realised this including both those you and Carswell mention.

NickPalmer said:

AndyJS said:

NP said yesterday that Carswell's defection hadn't had much effect on UKIP support.

5 polls since the defection: UKIP average = 15.6%
5 polls before the defection: UKIP average = 13.6%

A 2 point / 15% increase seems like a significant change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

I'd certainly expected one, but hadn't noticed the 2-point bump. Thanks.

Swiss_Bob said:

Not forgetting anyone with a European passport can now come and work here since I forget, though the people have voted to revoke that, I think. Whether the Govt can get away with ignoring the people I'm not sure.

IIRC the position is that, in view of the referendum result, the Government attempted to negotiate an exemption from free movement with the EU while keeping the various trade concessions that they'd won earlier. The EU refused, so the Swiss Government are now going back to the people to ask them "Do you want to reverse the free movement deal AND abrogate the previous deal?" As the majority for the restrictions was narrow and sold on the basis that the EU would probably agree, it's thought that the answer will probably be "no, in that case let's forget the restrictions". But the Swiss electorate can never be taken for granted and they might say "yes, let's scrap both deals".

RobD said:

Still, a feature whose return I would welcome.

NickPalmer said:

IIRC the position is that, in view of the referendum result, the Government attempted to negotiate an exemption from free movement with the EU while keeping the various trade concessions that they'd won earlier. The EU refused, so the Swiss Government are now going back to the people to ask them "Do you want to reverse the free movement deal AND abrogate the previous deal?" As the majority for the restrictions was narrow and sold on the basis that the EU would probably agree, it's thought that the answer will probably be "no, in that case let's forget the restrictions". But the Swiss electorate can never be taken for granted and they might say "yes, let's scrap both deals".

RobD said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

Icarus said:

Where is David Owen? Surely it is time for him to join UKIP.

He recently rejoined Labour, I believe.

"The good fairies gave the young doctor almost everything: thick dark locks, matinee idol features, a lightning intelligence—unfortunately the bad fairy also made him a shit."

Another post that shows why we need the like button back.

Help us TSE, you're our only hope!

RodCrosby said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RodCrosby said:

Anyone else having problems with the quote and post buttons?

As you can see, no.

Intermittently, quote doesn't work, and post doesn't work unless I right click "Select all" on the text box...

RodCrosby said:

AndyJS said:

"Exclusive: Tory Clacton selection will be any open primary":

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/09/exclusive-tory-clacton-selection-will-be-an-open-primary/

Is that a Tory first for a by-election?

Richard_Nabavi said:

NickPalmer said:

.

Yes, that is right.

The key point from the UK's point of view, of course, is the confirmation that any trade deal with the EU will almost certainly include some form of free movement of workers, most particularly if we want a free (or free-ish) market in services*, which we do. That's the bit which UKIP forget to tell their supporters.

* In fact I can't really see how you can have full cross-border trade in services without free movement of workers. If a company bids for a contract in another EU country, it needs to be able to move whichever workers it likes in to fulfil it, without delays and bureaucratic hoops. Otherwise it's not a free market in services.

Richard_Nabavi said:

NickPalmer said:

IIRC the position is that, in view of the referendum result, the Government attempted to negotiate an exemption from free movement with the EU while keeping the various trade concessions that they'd won earlier. The EU refused, so the Swiss Government are now going back to the people to ask them "Do you want to reverse the free movement deal AND abrogate the previous deal?" As the majority for the restrictions was narrow and sold on the basis that the EU would probably agree, it's thought that the answer will probably be "no, in that case let's forget the restrictions". But the Swiss electorate can never be taken for granted and they might say "yes, let's scrap both deals".

Yes, that is right.

The key point from the UK's point of view, of course, is the confirmation that any trade deal with the EU will almost certainly include some form of free movement of workers, most particularly if we want a free (or free-ish) market in services*, which we do. That's the bit which UKIP forget to tell their supporters.

* In fact I can't really see how you can have full cross-border trade in services without free movement of workers. If a company bids for a contract in another EU country, it needs to be able to move whichever workers it likes in to fulfil it, without delays and bureaucratic hoops. Otherwise it's not a free market in services.

Flightpath said:

Yes. The point about a free market is that it gives economies of scale. There is nothing to stop EU companies grown big taking over smaller British ones if we are out of the EU. Carswell has proposed opening up defence contracts to overseas - all overseas. He is not protectionist - hard to see where he opposes the EU really. His bugbear is in fact the way everyone else does politics. He espouses liberalism. If kippers were to ever get their way it would need to be totalitarian to achieve its aims (witness they do not want a referendum). Hardcore unthinking kippers just want isolationism. Despite what Carswell says they want the world to go away.

Roger said:

Ishmael. Your post is too asinine to grace with an answer. However I take from it that in your youth were part of it (from wikipedia)


In the 1980s the FCS was noted for being more radical than the main party, more Thatcherite than Thatcher – ministers invited to speak at conferences were routinely chastised for not going far enough.[3]

In addition to supporting no-holds-barred privatisation, controversial positions embraced included the support for American intervention in Grenada, RENAMO, the UNITA rebels in Angola, and the Contras in Nicaragua.[14] "Hang Nelson Mandela" slogans[17] were apparently worn by some leading members.[13] The Federation made badges with the words "Nicaragua Must be Free". Ironically, some Labour students began wearing them without realising their origin and intended meaning.[18]

Some delegates to the Loughborough conference wore T-shirts with the slogan "Morning Cloud, remember the Belgrano". In October 1985 they were accused of physically intimidating Edward Heath.[19]

The satirical magazine Private Eye alleged that members of the FCS at Aberystwyth wore springbok jerseys, racially abused ethnic minority bar staff at the student bar and organised a night out in Aberystwyth town centre to celebrate the anniversary of Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Germany. Following that incident, all members of the FCS were banned from giving speeches or organising meetings at the institute under the students' union's 'No Platform for Racists or Fascists' policy.[20]

HurstLlama said:

@Richard_Tyndall

"life as difficult as possible for legitimate students who want to come here and pay our universities to teach them "

Has there actually been a drop in the number of overseas students at our universities? The last time I looked I seem to recall there had not been either a undergraduate or post graduate level.

There had certainly been a drop at language schools and schools of management but as an awful lot of that was bogus anyway so it should have (and Labour started the crack down)