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The 10 Stages of a Crisis – politicalbetting.com

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  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Overplaying his hand. First this pisses off MPs who don't want Dom telling them what to do secondly it creates a can kicking opportunity-ok I have heard Gray but I'll wait to see what dom comes up with before making a final judgement
    I find it interesting that he mentions the photos again - looks as if he's storing them up for later news pressure if the Gray report isn't sufficiently harsh for him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    On the child vaccinations. Despite all the data from countries that had vaccinated children and the trials etc. JCVI blocked them. In part by claiming that the number of children who were likely to end up catching COVID was a ludicrously low number.

    If you put a sensible number into the risk/reward models, the evidence was clearly in favour of child vaccination. And is....
    I agree, the JVCI were seriously wrong about that. The Saj rather put them on the spot about it though and forced a decision from them one way or another.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Yes.

    He should resign because lawmakers can't be lawbreakers.

    Even though he's got the big calls right, the fact that he broke his own laws is terminal and he has to go. That point of principle is absolute and no matter how many credits are on his ledger he has to go.
    The traits that might (might - not sure at all) bring Boris down are the ones he has displayed throughout his career. It's a bit rich to say that one instance of his lying, dissembling, rules are for little people should be cause for resignation/defenestration.

    England has done very well imo and if you are saying that Boris and only Boris could have brought us to where we are now then I would take issue although the discussion would of course be moot.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Cummings seems to be organising a "phone-in" on Twitter. Somewhat amusing ; Call Dom with any questions and queries you may have.

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1485592208657063938?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Ask Me Anything on Sue Gray, parties, trolleys... And expect the parties story to roll on AFTER SG report cos photos etc will not be given to the Cabinet Office. MPs must scrap the 🛒 if they want the nightmare to end...

    “What role did you play in reshuffle which done for Nusrat, Dom?”
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Foxy said:

    So what do the hawks on this propose? Sending our troops and planes to defend the Ukraine steppe? If so what happens if there is direct and fatal conflict with the Russian Army?



    IF the west was united armed conflict wouldn't be necessary.

    Divided, it isn't worth a single British life.

    Is my view.
  • Will they ever get to that ultimate aim, in your opinion?
    Not for all countries. Expansion was always the enemy of integration and it was always going to be the case that they were going to lose countries as they continued towards a single state. That is not the same as saying the EU will fail. But it will not look the same in 20 years time. The core will be tighter both economically and politically whilst the fringes will either have hived off or be notably second tier within the reformed EU.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    And that single point demolishes all of the things you say sit as a credit on his account. Its like being a fantastic employee hitting every KPI in sight until you punch out the boss in the office after drinking 5 pints with a client over lunch.

    The credits, the sterling appraisals all go in the bin as you get immediately dismissed for gross misconduct.

    Even if you consider Brexit, Vaccines and general policy to have been excellent its no defence against breaking the law, lying to parliament, breaking the ministerial code. Repeatedly.

    Our politics either stands for something or it doesn't.
    Is it “our politics”? Looks very much like “their politics”. There is no ‘demos’.

    (Outstanding post by the way.)
  • Nope that was and still is the aim. The fact that they are fighting like rats in a sack over their own vested interests doesn't change the ultimate aim of the EU.
    Only amongst a minority of EU zealots . It was a card that was well played by Leave, but no-one in Europe really believes in it. They might say it, but there will never be a majority in France particularly, but any other nation in the 27 for that matter, to be subsumed by an EU super state. It is never going to happen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    .
    kle4 said:

    Theyll add 'on all sides' after deescalation.

    Idk, I totally buy Russia's position that Ukraine is a threat to it and that the might Russian army will steamroller them (paraphrase).
    Ukraine is a threat to Russia.
    If it were to become a prosperous democracy that would be seriously bad for Putin's regime. Russians might ask why they couldn't be, too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,696
    MaxPB said:

    I actually think he'll get a lot of credit for the UK being the first into the endemic stage of a global pandemic, but he's also probably not going to be PM by then. A lot of the UK post vaccine playbook has been correct, some of that is Boris and some of it is the MPs. In a year's time it will be fairly widely accepted that the UK got the early bits wrong but the later bits right while countries in Europe got the early bits right but the later bits wrong. National pandemic strategies will reflect that as well.
    At the end of it all, Japan will have had way fewer deaths *and* way fewer lockdowns.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Chris said:

    The simple fact is that if the rate of exponential growth in infections that we saw in early- to mid-December had continued as it was, the health service and probably much of our other infrastructure would have collapsed around the New Year. And given the data, there was no reason to expect the growth rate would drop until well beyond that point.

    Fortunately the growth rate did suddenly drop. I don't believe anyone understands why. And I don't think people like you predicted it would drop. I think you just repeated the mantra "Infections don't matter any more".

    As it is, I always made it perfectly clear what assumptions I was making. People like you just said there shouldn't be any restrictions, and that everything would be fine, and that infections were meaningless, and so on and so forth.

    And of course you're going to claim now that facts have proved you were right all along and everyone else was hysterical and unreasonable. But just because a 100-1 outsider comes in, that doesn't mean the reckless gambler who staked his life savings on it was right all along. Quite the opposite.
    Surprised at the likes on this post.

    Bart is right: you were insulting to those who disagreed with you. "Stupid", was your epithet of choice as I recall.

    Now you are trying to rewrite history – again.

    100-1 outsider. FFS, the South Africans had already told us that Milder was 1-3 odds-on favourite.

    You ignored them. Others did not.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Most amusing:

    '[Dominic Cummings] concluded his post ominously: "Other damaging stories will come out until he is gone. It's clear talking to people in No10 and 70 Whitehall that many officials are desperate to shove the kunlangeta off the ice this week."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-live-news-uk-boris-johnson-sue-gray-report-parties-nusrat-ghani-12514080

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Foxy said:

    So what do the hawks on this propose? Sending our troops and planes to defend the Ukraine steppe? If so what happens if there is direct and fatal conflict with the Russian Army?
    UK will send weapons, drones and probably a few “diplomats” from Hereford to help out. As will most of the West, including the US once Mr President has woken up from his afternoon nap.

    If it gets to the point of British troops being on the ground, then that fact is going be the least of our problems.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foxy said:

    So what do the hawks on this propose? Sending our troops and planes to defend the Ukraine steppe? If so what happens if there is direct and fatal conflict with the Russian Army?
    Thousands of body bags arriving at RAF Lyneham. (Which is in Wiltshire. Which is in England. Quick geography lesson for mendacious BritNat Nige.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    One of my favourite Churcill quotes applies here (and also to the occasions when Johnson makes the right call): “The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes.”
    Indeed. See also Nick Griffin and the ‘Rotherham problem’.

    It is always good to evaluate what’s being said, not just who’s saying it.
  • No, Thatcher was the greatest PM of my lifetime.

    Boris absolutely should go. He's still the second-greatest PM of my lifetime even though he should go, I'm not calling for him to go and bring back prior failures like Brown or Major.
    Let's suppose you are right but even then you could be wrong because greatest and most significant are not the same thing. Arguably before 2019 the most significant recent Prime Minister was Edward Heath who took us into Europe, but no-one calls him great.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Surprised at the likes on this post.

    Bart is right: you were insulting to those who disagreed with you. "Stupid", was your epithet of choice as I recall.

    Now you are trying to rewrite history – again.

    100-1 outsider. FFS, the South Africans had already told us that Milder was 1-3 odds-on favourite.

    You ignored them. Others did not.
    We will never know what "whatever it takes" meant to @Chris.

    Which is a shame because had he articulated it there would have been a discussion.

    He did articulate his 800k case/day forecast but again was reluctant to put his money where his mouth was. Particularly strange because if we are all stupid then he must be clever and any prediction made would have been very well thought through. Perhaps an odds on chance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210

    Germany was neutered by the 4 occupying powers (Soviet empire, British empire, French empire and American empire).

    You cannot neuter a political entity and then complain when it cannot act in an aggressive fashion.

    (Well, Tories can. Obviously. Maybe you’re a “Real” Tory after all Big G.)
    Germany had no problem supplying military equipment and training to... Russia.

    After Russia had invaded and annexed part of Ukraine. And was continuing to fight a war there.
  • TOPPING said:

    Right this minute, which country would you prefer to be in Covid-wise (restrictions, level of infections/deaths, etc)?

    And don't say Somewherenesia (pop: 2,500).

    I have to say that I am very glad I'm in England.
    It's not a meaningful question, Topping.

    Right now I'm happy to be living in rural Gloucestershire where cases are low and it's easy to semi self-isolate, as I do most of the time. But your question is just another way of asking which countries performed best? We won't know the answer to all that until all the papers are in. Places like NZ, Singapore, Vietnam seem likely to get a pass mark; the USA definitely not; the UK, possibly, possibly not.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Are you HYUFD? Do opinion polls trump what is right and wrong in your eyes?

    Restrictions are bad. That Sturgeon and the majority of Scots wrongly backed them as necessary, when they weren't, shows that Sturgeon and the majority of Scots were wrong.
    Sturgeon governs in the interest of Scots, not to please random unqualified Tories with wild epidemiology theories on an obscure blog.
  • Germany was neutered by the 4 occupying powers (Soviet empire, British empire, French empire and American empire).

    You cannot neuter a political entity and then complain when it cannot act in an aggressive fashion.

    (Well, Tories can. Obviously. Maybe you’re a “Real” Tory after all Big G.)
    Is that the best you can do

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    MISTY said:

    IF the west was united armed conflict wouldn't be necessary.

    Divided, it isn't worth a single British life.

    Is my view.
    And you don't think that 3-4m refugees from the Ukraine is going to be a problem for us either? I am genuinely surprised how little attention this is getting whilst we wet ourselves about after work drinkies 2 years ago (and the rather more important matter of the PM lying about it). If Russia invades Europe will be in chaos and so will we. The economic consequences will be on a level with Covid, possibly even worse. We need to do what we can to discourage this disaster.
  • Are you HYUFD? Do opinion polls trump what is right and wrong in your eyes?

    Restrictions are bad. That Sturgeon and the majority of Scots wrongly backed them as necessary, when they weren't, shows that Sturgeon and the majority of Scots were wrong.
    "the majority of scots were wrong". Good, and they apparently think you are wrong. Which does make nippie's point for her that people north of the wall support what she is doing and want more of that and less of what you and Peppa are doing.

    Its like the people making comments like Arden showing a "lack of leadership" because of her clear policies which people in her country agree with. I fundamentally disagree with America backing the rights of people who shoot small children in their classrooms over the right of the children not to be murdered, but as its not my country or my society what does it matter what I think?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,696
    kle4 said:

    Indeed. As has been noted as well a lot of the comments about what Grays findings may be are either made up expectations management or implicit accusation she is corrupt and leaking details.
    I’ve read the Terms of Reference of reference for the inquiry: http://data.parliament.uk/DepositedPapers/Files/DEP2021-0936/Terms_of_Reference_Cabinet_Secretary_Investigations_December2021.pdf There is nothing in them saying that Gray has to keep shtum about her findings, that she shouldn’t “leak” details. Indeed, they say the “findings … will be made public”! :-)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    Most amusing:

    '[Dominic Cummings] concluded his post ominously: "Other damaging stories will come out until he is gone. It's clear talking to people in No10 and 70 Whitehall that many officials are desperate to shove the kunlangeta off the ice this week."

    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-live-news-uk-boris-johnson-sue-gray-report-parties-nusrat-ghani-12514080

    I see that Kulangeta is the Innuit word for Narcissist-Psychopath. He likes his wide frames of reference , does our Dominic.
  • Thousands of body bags arriving at RAF Lyneham. (Which is in Wiltshire. Which is in England. Quick geography lesson for mendacious BritNat Nige.)
    You are a very very sick bastard. If there were any proof needed that many Scots Nats are nasty and unpleasant wankers then your posts like this (and particularly the previous one on this subject where you seemed to think this could be a topic of amusement) certainly provide it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Nope that was and still is the aim. The fact that they are fighting like rats in a sack over their own vested interests doesn't change the ultimate aim of the EU.
    Wishful thinking.

    I’m in the “sack”. We quite like each other in here. I’d trust a German Social Democrat before an English Tory any day of the week.
  • "the majority of scots were wrong". Good, and they apparently think you are wrong. Which does make nippie's point for her that people north of the wall support what she is doing and want more of that and less of what you and Peppa are doing.

    Its like the people making comments like Arden showing a "lack of leadership" because of her clear policies which people in her country agree with. I fundamentally disagree with America backing the rights of people who shoot small children in their classrooms over the right of the children not to be murdered, but as its not my country or my society what does it matter what I think?
    Which is why I have long said that Scotland should be an independent country.

    Yes Ardern and Sturgeon are bad leaders, but if they're who those nations wish to be led by, that should be their choice not mine.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    edited January 2022

    It's not a meaningful question, Topping.

    Right now I'm happy to be living in rural Gloucestershire where cases are low and it's easy to semi self-isolate, as I do most of the time. But your question is just another way of asking which countries performed best? We won't know the answer to all that until all the papers are in. Places like NZ, Singapore, Vietnam seem likely to get a pass mark; the USA definitely not; the UK, possibly, possibly not.

    The question more is interested in what your priorities are. We are told via a poll that the Scots were happy with the level of lockdown imposed by Sturgeon (who has said it was "worth it").

    But "best" can be everyone locked down going nowhere no chance of catching the virus; or it can mean everything open you takes your chances having been or not been vaccinated.

    Hence when people say this or that country did better it is meaningless without knowing what they value.

    And will "the papers" contain the lack of procedures done during the pandemic, the effects on mental health, education, etc?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Germany had no problem supplying military equipment and training to... Russia.

    After Russia had invaded and annexed part of Ukraine. And was continuing to fight a war there.
    Germany's policy is up to Germany, its none of our business. If they have become Russia-ambivalent or Russia apologist, that's up to them.

    What we should here in Britain should do is stop pretending the West is what it was and that Germany is a reliable ally, when it may not be. We have to adjust our policy approach. Very regrettable in the circumstances, but perhaps necessary.

  • Wishful thinking.

    I’m in the “sack”. We quite like each other in here. I’d trust a German Social Democrat before an English Tory any day of the week.
    Of course you would. But that is because you are a racist as you have made plain on here many times before.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Sandpit said:

    I’ll be a happy man if I can smuggle in one refugee from Ukraine ;)

    She speaks excellent English, can work as a teacher or translator.
    It shows the complete absurdity of our immigration policy that we have many tens of thousands, probably low hundreds of thousands here that should have been sent home a decade or more ago and have no real connection with this country other than being here for that decade whilst people like your better half, playing by the rules and married to a Brit, find it so difficult.
  • Only amongst a minority of EU zealots . It was a card that was well played by Leave, but no-one in Europe really believes in it. They might say it, but there will never be a majority in France particularly, but any other nation in the 27 for that matter, to be subsumed by an EU super state. It is never going to happen.
    It has been inevitable since the introduction of the Euro.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210

    You are a very very sick bastard. If there were any proof needed that many Scots Nats are nasty and unpleasant wankers then your posts like this (and particularly the previous one on this subject where you seemed to think this could be a topic of amusement) certainly provide it.
    Both he and Foxy seem unhappy that troops *won't* be committed to Ukraine.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    No, Thatcher was the greatest PM of my lifetime.
    Absolutely right about the first part. She was the greatest PM of my lifetime too.


    Boris [is] the second-greatest PM of my lifetime .
    Absolutely wrong about the second part. In what possible warped universe does your brain exist that you even think such junk? There is no measure whatsoever that can possibly justify this remark unless you think Brexit the unbridled triumph (do you really?!) that only Boris Johnson served up. If you do think that then you are being staggeringly myopian. Brexit is one part of a much larger brief on which Johnson has been mostly appalling. Absolutely godawful sloppy mess of a PM who has no command of his brief, is bloody bone idle, shops his colleagues and civil servants to save his skin and lies repeatedly and then lies some more and more and more.

    He is, without doubt, on every empirical measure the worst PM of my lifetime and he is about to be booted out for very good reasons.

    Oh and he was a puppet on Brexit. The real mastermind was Dominic Cummings.

    As for 2019, he won because Labour had the most unelectable leader of a lifetime.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    DavidL said:

    And you don't think that 3-4m refugees from the Ukraine is going to be a problem for us either? I am genuinely surprised how little attention this is getting whilst we wet ourselves about after work drinkies 2 years ago (and the rather more important matter of the PM lying about it). If Russia invades Europe will be in chaos and so will we. The economic consequences will be on a level with Covid, possibly even worse. We need to do what we can to discourage this disaster.
    Why should we sacrifice ourselves when our so-called key allies seem happy to defend the Western Alliance to the last British soldier?

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed. See also Nick Griffin and the ‘Rotherham problem’.

    It is always good to evaluate what’s being said, not just who’s saying it.
    You’ll be telling us you’re favourite Mussolini and Franco quotes next. Ask HY: he’s a huge Franco admirer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    MISTY said:

    Germany's policy is up to Germany, its none of our business. If they have become Russia-ambivalent or Russia apologist, that's up to them.

    What we should here in Britain should do is stop pretending the West is what it was and that Germany is a reliable ally, when it may not be. We have to adjust our policy approach. Very regrettable in the circumstances, but perhaps necessary.

    Indeed. But I would add that if Germany wants to be transactional in her dealing with the world, we should reciprocate.

    So when they come screaming about a Swift system cut-off or the Nord Stream II pipeline having a bad day, just tell that that "that's business".
  • DavidL said:

    And you don't think that 3-4m refugees from the Ukraine is going to be a problem for us either? I am genuinely surprised how little attention this is getting whilst we wet ourselves about after work drinkies 2 years ago (and the rather more important matter of the PM lying about it). If Russia invades Europe will be in chaos and so will we. The economic consequences will be on a level with Covid, possibly even worse. We need to do what we can to discourage this disaster.
    I misread that as "if Russia invades Europe" and was about to point out that its Ukraine and not Europe.

    I watched the new Netflix film about the Munich agreement last night. Just 20 years after the end of a crushing war the fear of war rises again - its barely conceivable to my generation never mind my kids'.

    What do I think we should do about Russia refounding the Soviet Union by force? Nothing militarily. Despite 30 years of post-cold war stability both sides retain the ability to reduce each other to pockets of Mad Max surrounded by oceans of molten glass.

    Unlike in the late 30s we don't face down a despot intent on conquering western Europe and committing genocide. And should Putin decide to turn into one we have the ultimate deterrent to make him stop and think. We aren't going to get involved and Putin knows it. If they were about to invade France then maybe. But they're not.
  • You are a very very sick bastard. If there were any proof needed that many Scots Nats are nasty and unpleasant wankers then your posts like this (and particularly the previous one on this subject where you seemed to think this could be a topic of amusement) certainly provide it.
    I could not agree more

    He is not representative of the Scottish people, just bigoted and anti English
  • Surprised at the likes on this post.

    Bart is right: you were insulting to those who disagreed with you. "Stupid", was your epithet of choice as I recall.

    Now you are trying to rewrite history – again.

    100-1 outsider. FFS, the South Africans had already told us that Milder was 1-3 odds-on favourite.

    You ignored them. Others did not.
    Yep. Chris has been proved consistently wrong on all his claims related to the threat of Covid over the past year or more and has never once been willing to admit he got it wrong. All he does is repeat the same old idiocy and then once he is shown to be wrong, lie about what he said.
  • TOPPING said:

    The question more is interested in what your priorities are. We are told via a poll that the Scots were happy with the level of lockdown imposed by Sturgeon (who has said it was "worth it").

    But "best" can be everyone locked down going nowhere no chance of catching the virus; or it can mean everything open you takes your chances having been or not been vaccinated.

    Hence when people say this or that country did better it is meaningless without knowing what they value.

    And will "the papers" contain the lack of procedures done during the pandemic, the effects on mental health, education, etc?
    Not meaningless, Topping, but certainly difficult.

    May I just add that my evaluation of Covid strategies was colored heavily by my recent experiences on returning from South Africa. They rather emphasised that if you are going to lock down, you have to do it thoroughly and enforce and carry the population with you. We achieved something like that in the original lockdown for a while and it was worth it.

    Half measures are useless, possibly worse than that; they may do more harm than good. In the current circumstances I would suggest the government would do best by advising what is recommended and what is not and then leaving it to our own good sense (if we have any!) to moderate our behaviour accordingly.

    This is kind of what we are now, even if not explicitly stated.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,625
    UK gas up over 20% today to £2.27, European TTF gas up a similar percentage to 95 euro cents.

    Stock markets taking a battering too.

    Lots of doom and gloom mongers about too.

    It feels like it’s all going to crap at the moment.
  • Which is why I have long said that Scotland should be an independent country.

    Yes Ardern and Sturgeon are bad leaders, but if they're who those nations wish to be led by, that should be their choice not mine.
    So your "the majority of Scots are wrong" comment is absurd. They might be from your perspective. But your perspective doesn't matter in this case as it doesn't for NZ. People get what they vote for, and Sturgeon just won a 4th election on the bounce on a record turnout and a record vote for her party. She absolutely does have the democratic mandate and the polls show a much wider support for her actions than just those SNP voters.
  • Heathener said:

    Absolutely right about the first part. She was the greatest PM of my lifetime too. Absolutely wrong about the second part. In what possible warped universe does your brain exist that you even think such junk? There is no measure whatsoever that can possibly justify this remark unless you think Brexit the unbridled triumph (do you really?!) that only Boris Johnson served up. If you do think that then you are being staggeringly myopian. Brexit is one part of a much larger brief on which Johnson has been mostly appalling. Absolutely godawful sloppy mess of a PM who has no command of his brief, is bloody bone idle, shops his colleagues and civil servants to save his skin and lies repeatedly and then lies some more and more and more.

    He is, without doubt, on every empirical measure the worst PM of my lifetime and he is about to be booted out for very good reasons.

    Oh and he was a puppet on Brexit. The real mastermind was Dominic Cummings.

    As for 2019, he won because Labour had the most unelectable leader of a lifetime.
    Whilst we disagree on the value of Brexit I think you are otherwise 100% correct in your assessment of Johnson.
  • MaxPB said:

    That's not true, the story of vaccines is Patrick Vallance and Dom approaching the PM telling him to take vaccine procurement away from the DoH and specifically Hancock because they/he was liable to fuck it up. Boris personally contacted Dame Kate Bingham and convinced her to take on the role as head of a new vaccine procurement body which would answer directly to him and Patrick Vallance, not the DoH.

    Hancock got the meme that he watched a movie and bought all the vaccines but it's not true. It was Kate Bingham and team who did the purchasing and she was put in place by Boris but advised by Dom and Patrick Vallance.
    Appreciate the correction of the record. My point remains - it was not the PM who like a titan stood there and said "we will need vaccines, get on with it". So when he personally gets the credit I just giggle a little.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    MISTY said:

    Why should we sacrifice ourselves when our so-called key allies seem happy to defend the Western Alliance to the last British soldier?

    We have an interest in the stability of Europe and of the Ukraine. But it is completely beyond our power to influence this, let alone determine it. What we need to do is work with others who are like minded to stop this. It is extremely regrettable that finding like minded nations is so difficult, especially when they will be more directly affected than us, but we have to live in the real world.

    The presence of UK and US troops on the ground or planes in the air in the Ukraine would, in my view, make war considerably less likely. It's not without risk, I fully accept that. But if we can find a credible group of like minded nations that seems to me the best move in a very tricky situation.

    Not our problem is not a useful response.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MISTY said:

    Germany's policy is up to Germany, its none of our business. If they have become Russia-ambivalent or Russia apologist, that's up to them.

    What we should here in Britain should do is stop pretending the West is what it was and that Germany is a reliable ally, when it may not be. We have to adjust our policy approach. Very regrettable in the circumstances, but perhaps necessary.

    So very transparent.

    Nationalism among Tories is spiralling out of control. It will end in tears.

    Never mind, the big boys will clean up the toddlers’ mess.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Indeed. But I would add that if Germany wants to be transactional in her dealing with the world, we should reciprocate.

    So when they come screaming about a Swift system cut-off or the Nord Stream II pipeline having a bad day, just tell that that "that's business".
    We should also perhaps precisely who and what we are negotiating with over Northern Ireland, and whether the fact that some of the participants are Russia-friendly changes the game somewhat.

    And We should ask German travellers for visas to the UK travel. Hilarious.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106

    Sturgeon governs in the interest of Scots, not to please random unqualified Tories with wild epidemiology theories on an obscure blog.
    If two ferries with painted on windows is governing “in the interests of Scots”…

    I guess they are the SNPs ferries, at least
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Not meaningless, Topping, but certainly difficult.

    May I just add that my evaluation of Covid strategies was colored heavily by my recent experiences on returning from South Africa. They rather emphasised that if you are going to lock down, you have to do it thoroughly and enforce and carry the population with you. We achieved something like that in the original lockdown for a while and it was worth it.

    Half measures are useless, possibly worse than that; they may do more harm than good. In the current circumstances I would suggest the government would do best by advising what is recommended and what is not and then leaving it to our own good sense (if we have any!) to moderate our behaviour accordingly.

    This is kind of what we are now, even if not explicitly stated.
    Yes meaningless was a bit de trop.

    But your last sentence is the key. We are in a position now, in England (I keep typing "UK" then having to go back and change it), which as you note, is "best". I agree.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    UK will send weapons, drones and probably a few “diplomats” from Hereford to help out. As will most of the West, including the US once Mr President has woken up from his afternoon nap.
    The RAF MQ-9A fleet is in Mosul and Kuwait, though with American mercenaries, sorry contractors, doing the launch and recovery element. They can't transit controlled airspace and couldn't be deconflicted even if they could get to Ukraine.

    This isn't some Call of Duty DLC with really good textures we're talking about. It's a real shooting war with fucking Russia. I can't believe how naive and blasé people are about involving British forces.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited January 2022
    DavidL said:

    It shows the complete absurdity of our immigration policy that we have many tens of thousands, probably low hundreds of thousands here that should have been sent home a decade or more ago and have no real connection with this country other than being here for that decade whilst people like your better half, playing by the rules and married to a Brit, find it so difficult.
    Indeedy! It’s rather annoying when you are in a position that slips through the cracks in the system, in a situation that was seemingly not thought about by those who wrote the relevant legislation.

    The eventual solution will likely involve her arriving on a visit visa, and unable to work for at least a year while the lawyers’ bills add up trying to get her leave to remain. Ironically, the most difficult bit will be proving my income.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Farooq said:

    What specifically was Chris wrong about?
    He said there would be 800k cases/day. There weren't, as far as I am aware.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    I’ve read the Terms of Reference of reference for the inquiry: http://data.parliament.uk/DepositedPapers/Files/DEP2021-0936/Terms_of_Reference_Cabinet_Secretary_Investigations_December2021.pdf There is nothing in them saying that Gray has to keep shtum about her findings, that she shouldn’t “leak” details. Indeed, they say the “findings … will be made public”! :-)
    Leaking what you are thinking or may be determining during an investigation shouldn't need to be in the terms of reference!

    The findings being public is a reemphasis of that, since leaking partial findings would be most improper and misleading.
  • TOPPING said:

    The question more is interested in what your priorities are. We are told via a poll that the Scots were happy with the level of lockdown imposed by Sturgeon (who has said it was "worth it").

    But "best" can be everyone locked down going nowhere no chance of catching the virus; or it can mean everything open you takes your chances having been or not been vaccinated.

    Hence when people say this or that country did better it is meaningless without knowing what they value.

    And will "the papers" contain the lack of procedures done during the pandemic, the effects on mental health, education, etc?
    Precisely.

    What is bizarre is people chopping and changing their priorities to suit their agenda.

    I've put down my priorities consistently, post-vaccines and have criticised the government when they imposed Plan B and last Spring for not lifting restrictions sooner. Pre-vaccines I viewed things differently.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,153

    Sturgeon governs in the interest of Scots, not to please random unqualified Tories with wild epidemiology theories on an obscure blog.
    Sturgeon governs in the interest of her personal popularity, like all politicians. Stoking fear (see Yousaf and his claims about children) and presenting yourself as a saviour is very effective.

    The hope is that our political system aligns political popularity with the long term needs of the country, but it often doesn't on stuff like HS2 and perhaps Covid-19.

    The Sturgeon bubble *could* pop quite suddenly, like Clegg, Salmond etc, but it's more likely that she has developed a sort of aura, like Merkel, and is basically invincible.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I could not agree more

    He is not representative of the Scottish people, just bigoted and anti English
    Nonsense.

    I’m an Anglophile. Very pro-England and her people.

    What I’m opposed to is British Nationalism, which is rampant on these threads. Shame on you Big G for joining in their chorus.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,636
    Nice header, but a quibble.

    I take full responsibility is just one of those meaningless phrases, where it sounds obvious that it's a good thing, but in actual fact it's often ridiculous.

    No one should be taking full responsibility for anything that someone else does, there surely has to be at least some portion of blame that falls on the person who did the thing.
  • TOPPING said:

    Yes meaningless was a bit de trop.

    But your last sentence is the key. We are in a position now, in England (I keep typing "UK" then having to go back and change it), which as you note, is "best". I agree.
    Yes, some qualified agreement then Topping. We are currently getting it about right considering where we are now. We may however be in the position of the man giving directions to Dublin: 'Well, you shouldn't really be starting from here.'
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    So very transparent.

    Nationalism among Tories is spiralling out of control. It will end in tears.

    Never mind, the big boys will clean up the toddlers’ mess.
    What will end in tears is Russian appeasement. Which you seem to champion.

    In your case I guess its 'my enemy's enemy is my friend'. I guess Sturgeon & Co take their allies as they come. Despots? Appeasers? no problem. Key common denominator - anti English.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    I haven't thought about Ukraine but all I did think the other day when I heard that some of HMF had been sent to do something or other (train? advise?) I thought they had better get the fuck out of there pretty damn quickly if a shooting war begins.

    Send more troops in? You must be joking.

    Although interestingly perhaps that reaction is what plenty of Americans have thought throughout the ages when her troops have been sent to fight in far off lands with no real threat to their homeland.
  • Sandpit said:

    Indeedy! It’s rather annoying when you are in a position that slips through the cracks in the system, in a situation that was seemingly not thought about by those who wrote the relevant legislation.

    The eventual solution will likely involve her arriving on a visit visa, and unable to work for at least a year while the lawyers’ bills add up trying to get her leave to remain.
    What is the issue? Your working in a sandpit meaning you can't meet the financial requirement, or something else?

    Have a foreign wife so aware of the extremely painful experience that is dealing with byzantine immigration rules...

    (If she's married to a Brit it's very unlikely she'll get a visit visa imo)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    .

    Appreciate the correction of the record. My point remains - it was not the PM who like a titan stood there and said "we will need vaccines, get on with it". So when he personally gets the credit I just giggle a little.
    When assessing a record, you do need to give credit as well as blame.
    I remain grateful that government and PM made the right decisions on vaccines, even if they mucked up much else.

    Doesn't alter the fact that Boris has to go.
  • ajbajb Posts: 152
    A good header.

    For those of us who are not habitual liars, this progression may seem like an inevitable one. Unfortunately someone like Johnson will have lived through many occasions where they managed to brush off the accusation, the non-apology worked, they shifted the blame, etc.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822

    Appreciate the correction of the record. My point remains - it was not the PM who like a titan stood there and said "we will need vaccines, get on with it". So when he personally gets the credit I just giggle a little.
    I think listening to the advice and getting the DoH out of the picture was a good move, he could have done nothing and let Hancock fuck it up and land us with not enough of the right vaccines or bought loads of vaccines that didn't stand and chance of being approved because of cheapness (CureVac) because that's what the DoH would probably have done. It contrasts with what Starmer would have done in the same place as well. There's simply no chance that the current Labour party would allow a pharmaceuticals VC expert near the national vaccine procurement programme, this, IMO is where the plaudits are deserved, though that's not specific to Boris, rather a difference in outlook from Labour (though probably not Blair).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    rkrkrk said:

    Nice header, but a quibble.

    I take full responsibility is just one of those meaningless phrases, where it sounds obvious that it's a good thing, but in actual fact it's often ridiculous.

    No one should be taking full responsibility for anything that someone else does, there surely has to be at least some portion of blame that falls on the person who did the thing.

    It's even more ludicrous when they try to explain in the same breath why it wasn't anything to do with them at all.
  • I expect a reduced Labour lead today with Redfield and Wilton of about 10% as the storm slowly blows over.

    I can see Johnson lasting at least another 6-11 months.
  • Farooq said:

    What specifically was Chris wrong about?
    HIs claims last September that the massive rise in cases would result in a similarly massive case in hospitalisations and deaths. A few weeks ago I went and found and reposted the quotes from then with him attacking everyone and claiming we were all stupid because we were suggesting there was an uncoupling of the case to hospitalisation ratios. Thankfully it wasn't just me and Robert Smithson also mentioned this. Lots of us had arguments with Chris about this and he has never at any time admitted he was wrong.
  • Are you HYUFD? Do opinion polls trump what is right and wrong in your eyes?

    Restrictions are bad. That Sturgeon and the majority of Scots wrongly backed them as necessary, when they weren't, shows that Sturgeon and the majority of Scots were wrong.
    Signed: Bartophil Robson who always knows best
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Sandpit said:

    Indeedy! It’s rather annoying when you are in a position that slips through the cracks in the system, in a situation that was seemingly not thought about by those who wrote the relevant legislation.

    The eventual solution will likely involve her arriving on a visit visa, and unable to work for at least a year while the lawyers’ bills add up trying to get her leave to remain. Ironically, the most difficult bit will be proving my income.
    Surely all those winnings on @Morris_Dancer's racing tips help?

    Seriously, all the best. I am really sympathetic to the problem.
  • So your "the majority of Scots are wrong" comment is absurd. They might be from your perspective. But your perspective doesn't matter in this case as it doesn't for NZ. People get what they vote for, and Sturgeon just won a 4th election on the bounce on a record turnout and a record vote for her party. She absolutely does have the democratic mandate and the polls show a much wider support for her actions than just those SNP voters.
    That my perspective doesn't matter does not make it absurd.

    If the majority of Americans elect Donald J Trump as the 47th* President of the United States of America in 2024 then I would say they were wrong to do so. As would almost everyone on this site.

    That I think they're wrong doesn't give me a vote, but my not having a vote doesn't lessen my right to have an opinion.

    * Following the precedent of Grover Cleveland who was 22nd and 24th.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    Dura_Ace said:

    The RAF MQ-9A fleet is in Mosul and Kuwait, though with American mercenaries, sorry contractors, doing the launch and recovery element. They can't transit controlled airspace and couldn't be deconflicted even if they could get to Ukraine.

    This isn't some Call of Duty DLC with really good textures we're talking about. It's a real shooting war with fucking Russia. I can't believe how naive and blasé people are about involving British forces.
    Agreed, though of course there are already UK forces in Ukraine - albeit in limited numbers, and for training purposes only.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Farooq said:

    I questioned this point before. I understand his prediction was 800,000 infections per day.
    And I wasn't able to work out how many there actually were. I can see from Zoe that total infections peaked a couple of weeks ago at about 2.8 million, but I don't see any day-by-day new cases data. So I'm unclear how good a prediction that was.
    I am not entirely sure I know the difference between infections and cases because if we know about the former don't they automatically become the latter?

    But whichever it was he was wrong.
  • Nonsense.

    I’m an Anglophile. Very pro-England and her people.

    What I’m opposed to is British Nationalism, which is rampant on these threads. Shame on you Big G for joining in their chorus.
    Rubbish. I have never once seen you say anything that was not highly critical of the English. And usually in the most crass and ignorant manner as well.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MISTY said:

    What will end in tears is Russian appeasement. Which you seem to champion.

    In your case I guess its 'my enemy's enemy is my friend'. I guess Sturgeon & Co take their allies as they come. Despots? Appeasers? no problem. Key common denominator - anti English.
    Less of the straw men. I haven’t uttered a single sentence about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If I did it would only be on a forum populated by reasonable adults, so PB isn’t an option.

    A fascinating insight nevertheless into the distorted mental world occupied by Tories. (Or at least the stereotypical ones who are most vocal around here.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    People always seek to discriminate against habitual liars. Discrimination is wrong. Ergo, it is ok to be an habitual liar.

    Signed A Johnson, aged 12.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Nigelb said:

    .

    When assessing a record, you do need to give credit as well as blame.
    I remain grateful that government and PM made the right decisions on vaccines, even if they mucked up much else.

    Doesn't alter the fact that Boris has to go.
    When considering praise and blame, I think it was Field Marshall Foch, who when asked if he was responsible for the victory on the Marne that pushed the Germans back in 1914, thought for a bit and then replied - he wasn't sure, but that he was quite certain that he would have been blamed for a defeat.
  • I expect a reduced Labour lead today with Redfield and Wilton of about 10% as the storm slowly blows over.

    I can see Johnson lasting at least another 6-11 months.

    Welcome, Mary.

    Agree on the first point, less confident about the second.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,153

    So your "the majority of Scots are wrong" comment is absurd. They might be from your perspective. But your perspective doesn't matter in this case as it doesn't for NZ. People get what they vote for, and Sturgeon just won a 4th election on the bounce on a record turnout and a record vote for her party. She absolutely does have the democratic mandate and the polls show a much wider support for her actions than just those SNP voters.
    Blair got a stonking majority and then took us to war in Iraq. Mandate != Correct.

    SNP support is slightly cultish at times; people seen to drop their general suspicion of politicians, and this can lead to stuff like the Salmond mess - "indyref(2) is too important to worry about stuff like that".

    Beware the zeal of the convert ;) (Though you did move to a Tory part of Scotland, which should help).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    What is the issue? Your working in a sandpit meaning you can't meet the financial requirement, or something else?

    Have a foreign wife so aware of the extremely painful experience that is dealing with byzantine immigration rules...

    (If she's married to a Brit it's very unlikely she'll get a visit visa imo)
    Yeah, it’s a pain in the arse. We met and married out here in Dubai, so she’s never lived in the UK. She’s had a couple of visit visas before, for holidays etc.

    Right now, we are happy where we are, but you never know what the future brings when you are on a temporary work visa, as we all are out here. Yes, the difficult bit is proving that she won’t be a burden on the state, because I don’t have any employment records in the UK for more than a decade. It’s doable, but will take a lot of time and money when the time comes. I’ll probably need to come back with a job offer well into the 40% tax rate, and a pile or two of cash savings.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979

    Sturgeon governs in the interest of Scots, not to please random unqualified Tories with wild epidemiology theories on an obscure blog.
    "Sturgeon governs in the interest of Scots". Hmm. Maybe. Particularly if you conflate interests of Scots with interests of SNP.

    I think what she has done is very astutely understand that Scots like the idea of themselves being more prudent and cautious than those that live to the south. She has therefore sought to differentiate the ScotGov approach by always appearing to be more cautious than the UK, while in practice shadowing it. It's a sensible political approach as there is no real downside, but has little to do with the actualite of the pandemic, and certainly takes no account of the economic consequences, something which, in any event, is of little interest to the Scottish Government.
  • Nonsense.

    I’m an Anglophile. Very pro-England and her people.

    What I’m opposed to is British Nationalism, which is rampant on these threads. Shame on you Big G for joining in their chorus.
    I do not accept your observations and you do post some extraordinarily bitter posts that do not reflect the generosity of the Scots
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Rubbish. I have never once seen you say anything that was not highly critical of the English. And usually in the most crass and ignorant manner as well.
    I’ve posted many paeans of praise to England. Don’t blame me if you’ve missed them in the ridiculously long threads around here.

    Please stop spreading malicious lies about fellow posters.
  • Nigelb said:

    Agreed, though of course there are already UK forces in Ukraine - albeit in limited numbers, and for training purposes only.
    In which particular area are the Ukrainian military training them?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,153
    edited January 2022

    Rubbish. I have never once seen you say anything that was not highly critical of the English. And usually in the most crass and ignorant manner as well.
    It is slightly Jews/Israel, the kind of conflation that got Corbyn into a mess.

    The greatest achievement of the SNP is cementing a distinction between "Westminster" and "the English".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    I expect a reduced Labour lead today with Redfield and Wilton of about 10% as the storm slowly blows over.

    I can see Johnson lasting at least another 6-11 months.

    Gets him beyond May's tenure. Shouldn't be underestimated as a factor.
  • I’ve posted many paeans of praise to England. Don’t blame me if you’ve missed them in the ridiculously long threads around here.

    Please stop spreading malicious lies about fellow posters.
    Sure you have. In a generic "many of my friends are [black/Muslim/English]" kind of way.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Nigelb said:

    Agreed, though of course there are already UK forces in Ukraine - albeit in limited numbers, and for training purposes only.
    Is there anyone here arguing for committing British forces to fight in Ukraine?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Less of the straw men. I haven’t uttered a single sentence about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If I did it would only be on a forum populated by reasonable adults, so PB isn’t an option.

    A fascinating insight nevertheless into the distorted mental world occupied by Tories. (Or at least the stereotypical ones who are most vocal around here.)
    I only wish co-ordinated action by the international community were the solution. I only wish Putin could be constrained by a determined and united response from a big group of democratic states. We used to be able to rely on such a response to contain Russia in all its political forms.

    We can't ignore evidence that the response is no longer either determined or united, however.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    It has been inevitable since the introduction of the Euro.
    Indeed, fiscal policy, monetary policy and interest rates. Everything else except war is local government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    MaxPB said:

    I think listening to the advice and getting the DoH out of the picture was a good move, he could have done nothing and let Hancock fuck it up and land us with not enough of the right vaccines or bought loads of vaccines that didn't stand and chance of being approved because of cheapness (CureVac) because that's what the DoH would probably have done. It contrasts with what Starmer would have done in the same place as well. There's simply no chance that the current Labour party would allow a pharmaceuticals VC expert near the national vaccine procurement programme, this, IMO is where the plaudits are deserved, though that's not specific to Boris, rather a difference in outlook from Labour (though probably not Blair).
    I'm not entirely sure a Labour government (I exclude Corbyn) wouldn't have ended up doing much the same, given that the expertise was in the private sector, and there was no real capacity for such accelerated programs in the public sector.
    No way of really knowing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Farooq said:

    I am. If Ukraine requests them.
    Then you are foolish. That risks escalating to WWIII for very little gain over sending equipment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,115
    rkrkrk said:

    Nice header, but a quibble.

    I take full responsibility is just one of those meaningless phrases, where it sounds obvious that it's a good thing, but in actual fact it's often ridiculous.

    No one should be taking full responsibility for anything that someone else does, there surely has to be at least some portion of blame that falls on the person who did the thing.

    The phrasing reflects a chain of command.

    Bozo is responsible for the culture and practise in No 10.

    Did he pour wine into a printer? No.

    Is he responsible for allowing drinking to excess in the office? Hell yes.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I do not accept your observations and you do post some extraordinarily bitter posts that do not reflect the generosity of the Scots
    And you take this observation from a blog with some of the most extraordinarily bitter posts about Scots ever witnessed in social media?

    In the circumstances I am remarkably generous, composed and restrained. I deserve a little credit surely?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    Scott_xP said:

    The phrasing reflects a chain of command.

    Bozo is responsible for the culture and practise in No 10.

    Did he pour wine into a printer? No.

    Is he responsible for allowing drinking to excess in the office? Hell yes.
    Exactly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I misread that as "if Russia invades Europe" and was about to point out that its Ukraine and not Europe.

    I watched the new Netflix film about the Munich agreement last night. Just 20 years after the end of a crushing war the fear of war rises again - its barely conceivable to my generation never mind my kids'.

    What do I think we should do about Russia refounding the Soviet Union by force? Nothing militarily. Despite 30 years of post-cold war stability both sides retain the ability to reduce each other to pockets of Mad Max surrounded by oceans of molten glass.

    Unlike in the late 30s we don't face down a despot intent on conquering western Europe and committing genocide. And should Putin decide to turn into one we have the ultimate deterrent to make him stop and think. We aren't going to get involved and Putin knows it. If they were about to invade France then maybe. But they're not.
    A Far-Away Country ... of Which We Know Nothing
This discussion has been closed.