The 10 Stages of a Crisis – politicalbetting.com

MoonRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

MoonRabbit said:

NickPalmer said:

Exceptionally good analysis by Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish, on the prospects for Boris Johnson, MP by MP:

https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/every-conservative-mps-position-on-boris-johnson-and-the-parties-in-number-10-bc4f5f77032f

Summary: 82 friendly, 92 hostile or "icy", the rest cool, neutral or unknown. Makes a VONC a near-certainty, though not yet a succesful VONC.

And the reason the iceberg is there is because this is a contrived attack, Boris is under little pressure on the greater fundamentals of policy and delivery.

Disagree. Look at the MP which defected, he'd been in talks since October. The Red-Torys are restless because the 'levelling up' isn't producing anything tangible. and no plans for education or the NHS or pressure on household bills etc etc.

What exactly is Boris and the government doing apart from meaningless sound bites is the question.

Yours is as opposition would say - but the reason why election results like 15 and 92 happen is because oppositions believe their own hype. That’s always a danger in politics isn’t it? Others don’t see it as you do.

If there is no vonc following Sues report, no vonc in a fortnight, as I suspect, you will be saying “stupid people lacking spines” but my analysis I just gave you is probably the real reason.

I’m a Libdem. I think he should be under immense pressure now from naff policy and lack of delivery. But from the coalition of factions which put him there I’m not part of, I don’t think he is.

eek said:

11 - carry on as before.

RochdalePioneers said:

Great thread, which neatly lists all the reasons why he is toast.

boulay said:

“ Or as any classicist will tell you: After Hubris comes Nemesis. Then what?”

Catharsis.

Hopefully.

RandallFlagg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Farooq said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

English Labour break into the upper 40s. Klaxons at central office.

England
Lab 46%
Con 36%
LD 10%

Scotland
SNP 45%
Lab 22%
Con 18%
LD 9%

Wales
Lab 44%
Con 29%
PC 11%
LD 10%

(Survation/38 Degrees; 14-17 January 2022; sample size 2,036)

36% in England is still higher for the Tories than the 33% they got in 1997 and the 35% they got in 2001 and 2004.

29% in Wales for the Tories is even better than the 27% Cameron's Tories got in Wales in 2015.

18% in Scotland is also better still than the 15% the Conservatives got in Scotland under Cameron in 2015

Very pleased to see you comparing current VI numbers with low-tide marks for your political party. Lang may yer lum reek!

In 2015 the Tories won a UK majority.

Boris is still doing better in Scotland and Wales than Cameron did in 2015

Boris Johnson should resign, say four in five Scots as poll reveals Downing Street parties scandal 'hurts case for union'

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/boris-johnson-should-resign-say-four-in-five-scots-as-poll-reveals-downing-street-parties-scandal-hurts-case-for-union-3536052

Semi serious question. Is it still hurting the Union if 4 in 5 English also agree that he should resign? Seems to me there might be a meeting of minds on this particular issue across the border quite soon.

Depends on how much self reflection is involved.
Scots voters will with some justification tell themselves that they’ve had a total **** inflicted on them by English voters. Will English voters take any modicum of blame for said total **** being where he is?

This is a key point for me.

There's a certain element "I hate to say we told you so, but we told you so" about this. One of the the things that would gladden the unionist part of my heart would be some kind of sign that English politics had somehow learned a lesson. But no, alongside the "everyone thinks Boris should go" is fully one in three people saying they will vote Conservative. As in "if there were an election tomorrow..."

I humbly suggest that anyone who says Boris must go, but states Conservative would be who they would vote for with Boris in charge, need not be taken at their word.

It's an age-old canard of unionism that surveys on issues show a meeting of minds between England and Scotland. It's a tempting argument, but it raises the question of why Scotland and England constantly vote in quite different ways. And the lack of engagement with that question from the unionist side quickens the nationalist part of my heart.

If you vote for the SNP at Westminster (which only stands in 59 out of 650 constituencies), then it's by default impossible for you to get the government you want.

How many GEs is it now that if Scotland had voted Lab in every single Westminster seat we would still not have got the government we wanted?

I think Labour could have done well enough in 2015 to get a hung parliament if they'd retained their Scottish seats and Cameron wasn't able to use the 'Ed Miliband will be in Alex Salmond's pocket' attack line.
Also considering SCONS rise in fortunes was a response to the SNP's dominance, they probably wouldn't have won thirteen seats in 2017. Take about ten of those away and add another 30 or Scottish seats onto what Corbyn won back then and he could have probably formed a minority government.

HYUFD said:

RandallFlagg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Farooq said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

English Labour break into the upper 40s. Klaxons at central office.

England
Lab 46%
Con 36%
LD 10%

Scotland
SNP 45%
Lab 22%
Con 18%
LD 9%

Wales
Lab 44%
Con 29%
PC 11%
LD 10%

(Survation/38 Degrees; 14-17 January 2022; sample size 2,036)

36% in England is still higher for the Tories than the 33% they got in 1997 and the 35% they got in 2001 and 2004.

29% in Wales for the Tories is even better than the 27% Cameron's Tories got in Wales in 2015.

18% in Scotland is also better still than the 15% the Conservatives got in Scotland under Cameron in 2015

Very pleased to see you comparing current VI numbers with low-tide marks for your political party. Lang may yer lum reek!

In 2015 the Tories won a UK majority.

Boris is still doing better in Scotland and Wales than Cameron did in 2015

Boris Johnson should resign, say four in five Scots as poll reveals Downing Street parties scandal 'hurts case for union'

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/boris-johnson-should-resign-say-four-in-five-scots-as-poll-reveals-downing-street-parties-scandal-hurts-case-for-union-3536052

Semi serious question. Is it still hurting the Union if 4 in 5 English also agree that he should resign? Seems to me there might be a meeting of minds on this particular issue across the border quite soon.

Depends on how much self reflection is involved.
Scots voters will with some justification tell themselves that they’ve had a total **** inflicted on them by English voters. Will English voters take any modicum of blame for said total **** being where he is?

This is a key point for me.

There's a certain element "I hate to say we told you so, but we told you so" about this. One of the the things that would gladden the unionist part of my heart would be some kind of sign that English politics had somehow learned a lesson. But no, alongside the "everyone thinks Boris should go" is fully one in three people saying they will vote Conservative. As in "if there were an election tomorrow..."

I humbly suggest that anyone who says Boris must go, but states Conservative would be who they would vote for with Boris in charge, need not be taken at their word.

It's an age-old canard of unionism that surveys on issues show a meeting of minds between England and Scotland. It's a tempting argument, but it raises the question of why Scotland and England constantly vote in quite different ways. And the lack of engagement with that question from the unionist side quickens the nationalist part of my heart.

If you vote for the SNP at Westminster (which only stands in 59 out of 650 constituencies), then it's by default impossible for you to get the government you want.

How many GEs is it now that if Scotland had voted Lab in every single Westminster seat we would still not have got the government we wanted?

I think Labour could have done well enough in 2015 to get a hung parliament if they'd retained their Scottish seats and Cameron wasn't able to use the 'Ed Miliband will be in Alex Salmond's pocket' attack line.
Also considering SCONS rise in fortunes was a response to the SNP's dominance, they probably wouldn't have won thirteen seats in 2017. Take about ten of those away and add another 30 or Scottish seats onto what Corbyn won back then and he could have probably formed a minority government.

Even then May would still have got 307 seats to 292 for Labour with the SNP on just 5-15 seats in Scotland if Labour had won 30 Scottish seats.

So May would still have stayed PM with the backing of the 10 DUP MPs as the LDs would have abstained rather than support Corbyn or May, though of course May would still have been unable to get Brexit through

IshmaelZ said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

CarlottaVance said:

From Playbook: Johnson’s allies note Tory MP anger on partygate is the boiling point rather than the root of disquiet — most unhappiness is over No10 operation/whips, Covid and policy direction of govt. They’ll argue this is fixable and he deserves a chance to lead in “peacetime”

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485570968017936386?s=20

So the argument is its not simply this, which is outrageous enough, but that everything is s**t and people are generally unhappy even without just this? And that's his allies saying that?

What does "From Playbook" mean? That this is a really lame deflection technique from a treatise on How to Weather a Crisis?

Theuniondivvie said:

OldKingCole said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Farooq said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

English Labour break into the upper 40s. Klaxons at central office.

England
Lab 46%
Con 36%
LD 10%

Scotland
SNP 45%
Lab 22%
Con 18%
LD 9%

Wales
Lab 44%
Con 29%
PC 11%
LD 10%

(Survation/38 Degrees; 14-17 January 2022; sample size 2,036)

36% in England is still higher for the Tories than the 33% they got in 1997 and the 35% they got in 2001 and 2004.

29% in Wales for the Tories is even better than the 27% Cameron's Tories got in Wales in 2015.

18% in Scotland is also better still than the 15% the Conservatives got in Scotland under Cameron in 2015

Very pleased to see you comparing current VI numbers with low-tide marks for your political party. Lang may yer lum reek!

In 2015 the Tories won a UK majority.

Boris is still doing better in Scotland and Wales than Cameron did in 2015

Boris Johnson should resign, say four in five Scots as poll reveals Downing Street parties scandal 'hurts case for union'

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/boris-johnson-should-resign-say-four-in-five-scots-as-poll-reveals-downing-street-parties-scandal-hurts-case-for-union-3536052

Semi serious question. Is it still hurting the Union if 4 in 5 English also agree that he should resign? Seems to me there might be a meeting of minds on this particular issue across the border quite soon.

Depends on how much self reflection is involved.
Scots voters will with some justification tell themselves that they’ve had a total **** inflicted on them by English voters. Will English voters take any modicum of blame for said total **** being where he is?

This is a key point for me.

There's a certain element "I hate to say we told you so, but we told you so" about this. One of the the things that would gladden the unionist part of my heart would be some kind of sign that English politics had somehow learned a lesson. But no, alongside the "everyone thinks Boris should go" is fully one in three people saying they will vote Conservative. As in "if there were an election tomorrow..."

I humbly suggest that anyone who says Boris must go, but states Conservative would be who they would vote for with Boris in charge, need not be taken at their word.

It's an age-old canard of unionism that surveys on issues show a meeting of minds between England and Scotland. It's a tempting argument, but it raises the question of why Scotland and England constantly vote in quite different ways. And the lack of engagement with that question from the unionist side quickens the nationalist part of my heart.

If you vote for the SNP at Westminster (which only stands in 59 out of 650 constituencies), then it's by default impossible for you to get the government you want.

How many GEs is it now that if Scotland had voted Lab in every single Westminster seat we would still not have got the government we wanted?

I think Labour could have done well enough in 2015 to get a hung parliament if they'd retained their Scottish seats and Cameron wasn't able to use the 'Ed Miliband will be in Alex Salmond's pocket' attack line.
Also considering SCONS rise in fortunes was a response to the SNP's dominance, they probably wouldn't have won thirteen seats in 2017. Take about ten of those away and add another 30 or Scottish seats onto what Corbyn won back then and he could have probably formed a minority government.

Lotta coulda probly there.

As the VIth form Biology master at my old school used to say in such circumstances 'If your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle!'

I was tempted by a cheap trans issues line there, but resisted rather than open up that whole wearying debate you'll be glad to hear.

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

IshmaelZ said:

CarlottaVance said:

From Playbook: Johnson’s allies note Tory MP anger on partygate is the boiling point rather than the root of disquiet — most unhappiness is over No10 operation/whips, Covid and policy direction of govt. They’ll argue this is fixable and he deserves a chance to lead in “peacetime”

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485570968017936386?s=20

Also Alex Wickham

One underpriced dynamic is that some of the 1922 Committee executive is actively working against Johnson. You might think the body governing leadership rules is impartial — not in the Tory party, where the referees are players

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485571579476160516

vice chairs of 1922 - Ghani, Wragg

eek said:

IshmaelZ said:

CarlottaVance said:

From Playbook: Johnson’s allies note Tory MP anger on partygate is the boiling point rather than the root of disquiet — most unhappiness is over No10 operation/whips, Covid and policy direction of govt. They’ll argue this is fixable and he deserves a chance to lead in “peacetime”

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485570968017936386?s=20

Also Alex Wickham

One underpriced dynamic is that some of the 1922 Committee executive is actively working against Johnson. You might think the body governing leadership rules is impartial — not in the Tory party, where the referees are players

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485571579476160516

vice chairs of 1922 - Ghani, Wragg

I think the one thing the 1922 committee want is a definitive answer were a VONC to be called. There is little point letting a wounded Boris continue as PM but I don't think there is any certainty (prior to Sue Gray's report being published) that a VONC will result in a decisive decision one way or the other.

A VONC with Boris getting 220-250 votes and not Boris getting 80-120 votes is the worst of all options.

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

eek said:

IshmaelZ said:

CarlottaVance said:

From Playbook: Johnson’s allies note Tory MP anger on partygate is the boiling point rather than the root of disquiet — most unhappiness is over No10 operation/whips, Covid and policy direction of govt. They’ll argue this is fixable and he deserves a chance to lead in “peacetime”

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485570968017936386?s=20

Also Alex Wickham

One underpriced dynamic is that some of the 1922 Committee executive is actively working against Johnson. You might think the body governing leadership rules is impartial — not in the Tory party, where the referees are players

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485571579476160516

vice chairs of 1922 - Ghani, Wragg

I think the one thing the 1922 committee want is a definitive answer were a VONC to be called. There is little point letting a wounded Boris continue as PM but I don't think there is any certainty (prior to Sue Gray's report being published) that a VONC will result in a decisive decision one way or the other.

A VONC with Boris getting 220-250 votes and not Boris getting 80-120 votes is the worst of all options.

I'm not sure Boris' support at the 1922 is worse than his support from MPs generally.

Indeed senior positions at 1922 are weighted towards older intakes, who I would have thought are more supportive. I would have assumed that the 1922 are pretty split because clearly there are some who are not fans, inc. Ghani.

NickPalmer said:

Entertaining and accurate lead - thank you Cyclefree. I especially enjoyed "rewilding of personal behaviour" - a lovely phrase.

Replying to The Valiant last thread - IIRC Alastair Meeks got fed up with being harassed over his pro-EU views. It'd be great if he could be encouraged back, as his excellent pieces are I think only reaching a small audience,

Replying to MoonRabbit - VONCs that fail are possible, simply because MPs are - how shall we put it - not always reliable in their assertions of what they will do in a secret ballot.

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Would a leadership election go ahead were Russia to launch the attack on Ukraine?

I think not.

It is even possible that one would be abandoned and postponed half way through if there was military action.

"Now is not the time etc etc"

Worth bearing in mind if peeps are betting on exit dates.

We changed Prime Ministers during both world wars, twice during WWII, Ukraine will not save Boris Johnson.

Roger said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

Sorry but to borrow cycleefree's theme 'All the perfumes in Arabia will not sweeten his sticky little hand' He's been a disaster. The worst PM in recent memory (Chinese use of 'recent'). The only comfort is when he's gone we'll be able to have a serious appraisil of his 'Covid success'

kle4 said:

Too many stages, cant we even have a crisis efficiently?

Malmesbury said:

On topic, for some reason I am reminded of DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"

- Enthusiasm
- Disillusionment
- Panic
- The Search for the Guilty
- The punishment of the Innocent
- Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants

david_herdson said:

CarlottaVance said:

From Playbook: Johnson’s allies note Tory MP anger on partygate is the boiling point rather than the root of disquiet — most unhappiness is over No10 operation/whips, Covid and policy direction of govt. They’ll argue this is fixable and he deserves a chance to lead in “peacetime”

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1485570968017936386?s=20

Johnson's allies can note whatever they like but that doesn't make their assertions true.

In this case, the root problem is not policy, whipping operations or Covid: it's Johnson's personal and political character - and that is not something that he can fix (and in any case, the other issues are consequences of that character, so they're not fixable either).

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Would a leadership election go ahead were Russia to launch the attack on Ukraine?

I think not.

It is even possible that one would be abandoned and postponed half way through if there was military action.

"Now is not the time etc etc"

Worth bearing in mind if peeps are betting on exit dates.

We changed Prime Ministers during both world wars, twice during WWII, Ukraine will not save Boris Johnson.

Times have changed. Even sensible lose their shit over switching PMs without an election, of the tories just anointing one or their members picking one, and couldn't handle the idea of Raab (or anyone) being primary among the Cabinet while the PM was in hospital. How could decisions be made was the cry.

No way the Tories do a switch if there's a european war flaring up. Not now.

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

eek said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Would a leadership election go ahead were Russia to launch the attack on Ukraine?

I think not.

It is even possible that one would be abandoned and postponed half way through if there was military action.

"Now is not the time etc etc"

Worth bearing in mind if peeps are betting on exit dates.

We changed Prime Ministers during both world wars, twice during WWII, Ukraine will not save Boris Johnson.

Times have changed. Even sensible lose their shit over switching PMs without an election, of the tories just anointing one or their members picking one, and couldn't handle the idea of Raab (or anyone) being primary among the Cabinet while the PM was in hospital. How could decisions be made was the cry.

No way the Tories do a switch if there's a european war flaring up. Not now.

Times haven't changed

What has changed is that fewer people understand how our Parliamentary system works and that the vast majority of us do not vote for the Prime Minister, they vote for a representative to represent their views in Parliament.

Cyclefree said:

eek said:

11 - carry on as before.

12 - Go back to what you were doing before when everyone who was around for the last crisis has forgotten, retired or died. "This time it's different."

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Would a leadership election go ahead were Russia to launch the attack on Ukraine?

I think not.

It is even possible that one would be abandoned and postponed half way through if there was military action.

"Now is not the time etc etc"

Worth bearing in mind if peeps are betting on exit dates.

We changed Prime Ministers during both world wars, twice during WWII, Ukraine will not save Boris Johnson.

Times have changed. Even sensible lose their shit over switching PMs without an election, of the tories just anointing one or their members picking one, and couldn't handle the idea of Raab (or anyone) being primary among the Cabinet while the PM was in hospital. How could decisions be made was the cry.

No way the Tories do a switch if there's a european war flaring up. Not now.

If Johnson has become an electoral liability the Conservatives won't worry about anything so comparatively trivial as a pan-European war to winning the next GE.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

Sorry but to borrow cycleefree's theme 'All the perfumes in Arabia will not sweeten his sticky little hand' He's been a disaster. The worst PM in recent memory (Chinese use of 'recent'). The only comfort is when he's gone we'll be able to have a serious appraisil of his 'Covid success'

Only the Moaning Myrtle's who abhor Brexit and all it stands for are banging on about how he's been a disaster.

Being objective, there's no reason to say that. First country in the world to roll out vaccines. First major country in the world to vaccinate all the vulnerable, then all the population (who wanted it). First major country in the world to roll out boosters. First country in Europe to lift all Covid restrictions.

If he'd only made the trains run on time he'd have a full house.

Considering you were hysterically screaming in December about what an imminent disaster we were doomed to without restrictions due to the exponential growth and that those of us who disagreed were just too stupid to realise how catastrophic it all was . . . surely you must credit the boosters and Boris with being able to avert the catastrophe you were warning us about?

Or would you rather just scream fire in a crowded theatre and then when there's no fire just pretend you always knew all was fine.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

Sorry but to borrow cycleefree's theme 'All the perfumes in Arabia will not sweeten his sticky little hand' He's been a disaster. The worst PM in recent memory (Chinese use of 'recent'). The only comfort is when he's gone we'll be able to have a serious appraisil of his 'Covid success'

Only the Moaning Myrtle's who abhor Brexit and all it stands for are banging on about how he's been a disaster.

Being objective, there's no reason to say that. First country in the world to roll out vaccines. First major country in the world to vaccinate all the vulnerable, then all the population (who wanted it). First major country in the world to roll out boosters. First country in Europe to lift all Covid restrictions.

If he'd only made the trains run on time he'd have a full house.

Considering you were hysterically screaming in December about what an imminent disaster we were doomed to without restrictions due to the exponential growth and that those of us who disagreed were just too stupid to realise how catastrophic it all was . . . surely you must credit the boosters and Boris with being able to avert the catastrophe you were warning us about?

Or would you rather just scream fire in a crowded theatre and then when there's no fire just pretend you always knew all was fine.

IshmaelZ said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

Even the Rector of Stiffkey found a showbiz niche after his disgrace

Didn't end well mind

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Davidson

BartholomewRoberts said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

OldKingCole said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Farooq said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

English Labour break into the upper 40s. Klaxons at central office.

England
Lab 46%
Con 36%
LD 10%

Scotland
SNP 45%
Lab 22%
Con 18%
LD 9%

Wales
Lab 44%
Con 29%
PC 11%
LD 10%

(Survation/38 Degrees; 14-17 January 2022; sample size 2,036)

36% in England is still higher for the Tories than the 33% they got in 1997 and the 35% they got in 2001 and 2004.

29% in Wales for the Tories is even better than the 27% Cameron's Tories got in Wales in 2015.

18% in Scotland is also better still than the 15% the Conservatives got in Scotland under Cameron in 2015

Very pleased to see you comparing current VI numbers with low-tide marks for your political party. Lang may yer lum reek!

In 2015 the Tories won a UK majority.

Boris is still doing better in Scotland and Wales than Cameron did in 2015

Boris Johnson should resign, say four in five Scots as poll reveals Downing Street parties scandal 'hurts case for union'

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/boris-johnson-should-resign-say-four-in-five-scots-as-poll-reveals-downing-street-parties-scandal-hurts-case-for-union-3536052

Semi serious question. Is it still hurting the Union if 4 in 5 English also agree that he should resign? Seems to me there might be a meeting of minds on this particular issue across the border quite soon.

Depends on how much self reflection is involved.
Scots voters will with some justification tell themselves that they’ve had a total **** inflicted on them by English voters. Will English voters take any modicum of blame for said total **** being where he is?

This is a key point for me.

There's a certain element "I hate to say we told you so, but we told you so" about this. One of the the things that would gladden the unionist part of my heart would be some kind of sign that English politics had somehow learned a lesson. But no, alongside the "everyone thinks Boris should go" is fully one in three people saying they will vote Conservative. As in "if there were an election tomorrow..."

I humbly suggest that anyone who says Boris must go, but states Conservative would be who they would vote for with Boris in charge, need not be taken at their word.

It's an age-old canard of unionism that surveys on issues show a meeting of minds between England and Scotland. It's a tempting argument, but it raises the question of why Scotland and England constantly vote in quite different ways. And the lack of engagement with that question from the unionist side quickens the nationalist part of my heart.

If you vote for the SNP at Westminster (which only stands in 59 out of 650 constituencies), then it's by default impossible for you to get the government you want.

How many GEs is it now that if Scotland had voted Lab in every single Westminster seat we would still not have got the government we wanted?

I think Labour could have done well enough in 2015 to get a hung parliament if they'd retained their Scottish seats and Cameron wasn't able to use the 'Ed Miliband will be in Alex Salmond's pocket' attack line.
Also considering SCONS rise in fortunes was a response to the SNP's dominance, they probably wouldn't have won thirteen seats in 2017. Take about ten of those away and add another 30 or Scottish seats onto what Corbyn won back then and he could have probably formed a minority government.

Lotta coulda probly there.

As the VIth form Biology master at my old school used to say in such circumstances 'If your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle!'

I was tempted by a cheap trans issues line there, but resisted rather than open up that whole wearying debate you'll be glad to hear.

If my Granny had wheels she would have been a bike.

(Gino de Campo, ITV)

I thought hinting a woman was "a bike" was already something you could get cancelled for nowadays too? 😲

BartholomewRoberts said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

OldKingCole said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RandallFlagg said:

Farooq said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

English Labour break into the upper 40s. Klaxons at central office.

England
Lab 46%
Con 36%
LD 10%

Scotland
SNP 45%
Lab 22%
Con 18%
LD 9%

Wales
Lab 44%
Con 29%
PC 11%
LD 10%

(Survation/38 Degrees; 14-17 January 2022; sample size 2,036)

36% in England is still higher for the Tories than the 33% they got in 1997 and the 35% they got in 2001 and 2004.

29% in Wales for the Tories is even better than the 27% Cameron's Tories got in Wales in 2015.

18% in Scotland is also better still than the 15% the Conservatives got in Scotland under Cameron in 2015

Very pleased to see you comparing current VI numbers with low-tide marks for your political party. Lang may yer lum reek!

In 2015 the Tories won a UK majority.

Boris is still doing better in Scotland and Wales than Cameron did in 2015

Boris Johnson should resign, say four in five Scots as poll reveals Downing Street parties scandal 'hurts case for union'

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/boris-johnson-should-resign-say-four-in-five-scots-as-poll-reveals-downing-street-parties-scandal-hurts-case-for-union-3536052

Semi serious question. Is it still hurting the Union if 4 in 5 English also agree that he should resign? Seems to me there might be a meeting of minds on this particular issue across the border quite soon.

Depends on how much self reflection is involved.
Scots voters will with some justification tell themselves that they’ve had a total **** inflicted on them by English voters. Will English voters take any modicum of blame for said total **** being where he is?

This is a key point for me.

There's a certain element "I hate to say we told you so, but we told you so" about this. One of the the things that would gladden the unionist part of my heart would be some kind of sign that English politics had somehow learned a lesson. But no, alongside the "everyone thinks Boris should go" is fully one in three people saying they will vote Conservative. As in "if there were an election tomorrow..."

I humbly suggest that anyone who says Boris must go, but states Conservative would be who they would vote for with Boris in charge, need not be taken at their word.

It's an age-old canard of unionism that surveys on issues show a meeting of minds between England and Scotland. It's a tempting argument, but it raises the question of why Scotland and England constantly vote in quite different ways. And the lack of engagement with that question from the unionist side quickens the nationalist part of my heart.

If you vote for the SNP at Westminster (which only stands in 59 out of 650 constituencies), then it's by default impossible for you to get the government you want.

How many GEs is it now that if Scotland had voted Lab in every single Westminster seat we would still not have got the government we wanted?

I think Labour could have done well enough in 2015 to get a hung parliament if they'd retained their Scottish seats and Cameron wasn't able to use the 'Ed Miliband will be in Alex Salmond's pocket' attack line.
Also considering SCONS rise in fortunes was a response to the SNP's dominance, they probably wouldn't have won thirteen seats in 2017. Take about ten of those away and add another 30 or Scottish seats onto what Corbyn won back then and he could have probably formed a minority government.

Lotta coulda probly there.

As the VIth form Biology master at my old school used to say in such circumstances 'If your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle!'

I was tempted by a cheap trans issues line there, but resisted rather than open up that whole wearying debate you'll be glad to hear.

If my Granny had wheels she would have been a bike.

(Gino de Campo, ITV)

I thought hinting a woman was "a bike" was already something you could get cancelled for nowadays too? 😲

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

Sorry but to borrow cycleefree's theme 'All the perfumes in Arabia will not sweeten his sticky little hand' He's been a disaster. The worst PM in recent memory (Chinese use of 'recent'). The only comfort is when he's gone we'll be able to have a serious appraisil of his 'Covid success'

Only the Moaning Myrtle's who abhor Brexit and all it stands for are banging on about how he's been a disaster.

Being objective, there's no reason to say that. First country in the world to roll out vaccines. First major country in the world to vaccinate all the vulnerable, then all the population (who wanted it). First major country in the world to roll out boosters. First country in Europe to lift all Covid restrictions.

If he'd only made the trains run on time he'd have a full house.

Considering you were hysterically screaming in December about what an imminent disaster we were doomed to without restrictions due to the exponential growth and that those of us who disagreed were just too stupid to realise how catastrophic it all was . . . surely you must credit the boosters and Boris with being able to avert the catastrophe you were warning us about?

Or would you rather just scream fire in a crowded theatre and then when there's no fire just pretend you always knew all was fine.

The only conclusion I draw from that little outburst is that you're hysterically unable to read - or understand - or remember. Not sure which.

But if you really feel that's the only way you can defend the prime minister, you'd better carry on with it.

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

Entertaining and accurate lead - thank you Cyclefree. I especially enjoyed "rewilding of personal behaviour" - a lovely phrase.

Replying to The Valiant last thread - IIRC Alastair Meeks got fed up with being harassed over his pro-EU views. It'd be great if he could be encouraged back, as his excellent pieces are I think only reaching a small audience,

Replying to MoonRabbit - VONCs that fail are possible, simply because MPs are - how shall we put it - not always reliable in their assertions of what they will do in a secret ballot.

I hate to be personal, but Mr Meeks was extremely emotional in attacking and insulting others for Brexit views, but refused to accept he was being so, as well as any attacks he also received.

I'd love him to be around, but it seemed a situation where being on PB only caused him anger rather than it being cathartic, and he both recieved and gave out verbal lashings, not a matter of him being hounded or harassed for being pro EU.

When the fun stops stop, as they say. Real shame though.

IshmaelZ said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

Yes, it does make it harder. It feels like a corner has been turned (not least by shocking turnarounds for Tories in Midlands etc, albeit most often thats sub samples) by which some of his former strengths - irreverence etc - are now hurting him.

He doesn't have a cohesive ideology, so once personal appeal goes someone else is no worse. But he has surprised often.

My Boris fan relative is still all for him.

Let's not forget the depth of trouble he would be in even if nobody had opened a single bottle in Downing Street in the whole of 2020-21

Beginning Nov Paterson
End Nov peppa cbi speech
16 Dec North Salop

Allegra went on 8 Dec but partygate was in its infancy at the time of NS

JosiasJessop said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

Sorry but to borrow cycleefree's theme 'All the perfumes in Arabia will not sweeten his sticky little hand' He's been a disaster. The worst PM in recent memory (Chinese use of 'recent'). The only comfort is when he's gone we'll be able to have a serious appraisil of his 'Covid success'

Only the Moaning Myrtle's who abhor Brexit and all it stands for are banging on about how he's been a disaster.

Being objective, there's no reason to say that. First country in the world to roll out vaccines. First major country in the world to vaccinate all the vulnerable, then all the population (who wanted it). First major country in the world to roll out boosters. First country in Europe to lift all Covid restrictions.

If he'd only made the trains run on time he'd have a full house.

Considering you were hysterically screaming in December about what an imminent disaster we were doomed to without restrictions due to the exponential growth and that those of us who disagreed were just too stupid to realise how catastrophic it all was . . . surely you must credit the boosters and Boris with being able to avert the catastrophe you were warning us about?

Or would you rather just scream fire in a crowded theatre and then when there's no fire just pretend you always knew all was fine.

Why must we credit Johnson with the Boosters? Did he invent them? If I ever see him in a white labcoat he's more likely to be handing out IceCream (a la Mr Whippy), or in a hard hat as well polishing a JCB.

That's a rather unkind and unrealistic view.

IMO the government (and hence Johnson) can be praised for four things wrt boosters:
Recognising the need for boosters ahead of the event - before last summer.
Scheduling them for the elderly when they would be most effective over winter.
Expanding the booster scheme to under-50s when the issues with omicron became clear.
Ensuring we had supply.

There were issues with all of these, but generally they worked well.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

Sorry but to borrow cycleefree's theme 'All the perfumes in Arabia will not sweeten his sticky little hand' He's been a disaster. The worst PM in recent memory (Chinese use of 'recent'). The only comfort is when he's gone we'll be able to have a serious appraisil of his 'Covid success'

Only the Moaning Myrtle's who abhor Brexit and all it stands for are banging on about how he's been a disaster.

Being objective, there's no reason to say that. First country in the world to roll out vaccines. First major country in the world to vaccinate all the vulnerable, then all the population (who wanted it). First major country in the world to roll out boosters. First country in Europe to lift all Covid restrictions.

If he'd only made the trains run on time he'd have a full house.

Considering you were hysterically screaming in December about what an imminent disaster we were doomed to without restrictions due to the exponential growth and that those of us who disagreed were just too stupid to realise how catastrophic it all was . . . surely you must credit the boosters and Boris with being able to avert the catastrophe you were warning us about?

Or would you rather just scream fire in a crowded theatre and then when there's no fire just pretend you always knew all was fine.

The only conclusion I draw from that little outburst is that you're hysterically unable to read - or understand - or remember. Not sure which.

But if you really feel that's the only way you can defend the prime minister, you'd better carry on with it.

I've called repeatedly for months now for Boris to go. So not defending him.

But you're the one claiming there was a looming catastrophe were you not? You were extremely rude to me and others claiming we didn't understand exponential growth, simply because we disagreed with you.

Instead there were no new restrictions at the end of December as you were screaming were required and the number of people in intensive care is at a six-month low.

If you can't see the difference between your catastrophising and what really happened, then that speaks volumes.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Chris said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Burgessian said:

Imagine if Boris had done the decent thing and resigned which, as his defenestration is inevitable, would have been the sensible thing to have done. The view that he was a consequential PM who had taken the fall over something relatively trivial would have become a pretty general view and led rapidly to his reputational rehabilitation and an enjoyable, credible and lucrative post-PM career. Instead of which...

Do you think Brand Boris has been irredeemably trashed? I think so but recognise I'm a somewhat partial observer.

I don't think it has, a couple of years from now he'll be writing columns in the Telegraph again and collecting tens of thousands per speaking engagement.

Quite reasonably too. Heck even Theresa May gets such from speaking engagements.

Boris has been a successful PM but he's burnt too many bridges and became too arrogant. The hubristic attempt to save Patterson combined with not following own rules over drinking is the end of him.

But when all is said and done and once the heat and fire have gone out of this, he'll have a successful record. All careers end in failure, but his is over what should have been trivial stuff badly handled instead of getting the big calls on political issues like Brexit or vaccines wrong.

Sorry but to borrow cycleefree's theme 'All the perfumes in Arabia will not sweeten his sticky little hand' He's been a disaster. The worst PM in recent memory (Chinese use of 'recent'). The only comfort is when he's gone we'll be able to have a serious appraisil of his 'Covid success'

Only the Moaning Myrtle's who abhor Brexit and all it stands for are banging on about how he's been a disaster.

Being objective, there's no reason to say that. First country in the world to roll out vaccines. First major country in the world to vaccinate all the vulnerable, then all the population (who wanted it). First major country in the world to roll out boosters. First country in Europe to lift all Covid restrictions.

If he'd only made the trains run on time he'd have a full house.

Considering you were hysterically screaming in December about what an imminent disaster we were doomed to without restrictions due to the exponential growth and that those of us who disagreed were just too stupid to realise how catastrophic it all was . . . surely you must credit the boosters and Boris with being able to avert the catastrophe you were warning us about?

Or would you rather just scream fire in a crowded theatre and then when there's no fire just pretend you always knew all was fine.

Why must we credit Johnson with the Boosters? Did he invent them? If I ever see him in a white labcoat he's more likely to be handing out IceCream (a la Mr Whippy), or in a hard hat as well polishing a JCB.

For the same reason we must blame him for the parties. The buck stops there.

His government bought the vaccines and rolled them out, faster than any other major country on the planet. .