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ANALYSING LABOUR-LIB DEM TACTICAL VOTING SINCE 1983 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited February 6 in General
imageANALYSING LABOUR-LIB DEM TACTICAL VOTING SINCE 1983 – politicalbetting.com

Following the stunning success for the Liberal Democrats at the North Shropshire by-election, former YouGov head, Peter Kellner, wrote in the Guardian:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Just took part in a YouGov poll of Tory Party members, so we should see that soon.
  • Oh was that a first, how serendipitous.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,785

    Top piece Tom, really informative, and a pleasure to publish.

    Thank you. I’ve put all the data into a proper database so this was pretty easy to pull together.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,252
    Exclusive: The Independent reported claims from two sources that they were told to “clean up” phones amid the partygate investigation.

    Now, a third source has come forward.

    All three described a ‘culture of fear’ & holding back info from inquiry.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/partygate-boris-johnson-sue-gray-investigation-b1998921.html
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    The Lib dems did an excellent job of heavily squeezing the Labour vote in lots of seats in the Southeast of England in 2019 but they didn't gain seats because the Tory vote was so high nationally.

    In hindsight I agree that the Tories could have done a lot worse in the South of England in 1997. Labour arguably split the Lib Dem vote in seats like Folkestone, Southend W, E Worthing etc back then.

    It's why I think the Tories are now in deep trouble longer term in SE England (in Surrey etc) even the Tories largely hold off the LDs at the next election.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,382
    edited January 23
    And they say Germans don't have a sense of humour (insert your own cracks about arrows pointing to Ukraine).

    https://twitter.com/SwearingSport/status/1485011540357128197?s=20
  • When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,252
    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721
  • When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    An interesting analysis. In the LibDem graphs, the 31 seats in 1983 are rather different to the 14 seats in 2019, so I’m not convinced that a direct comparison like this is valid. Maybe these results are not about tactical voting, but just about where is a LibDem marginal shifting over time…?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,308
    edited January 23

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cracking piece

    This question probably arises from early onset dementia but what Alliance are we talking about?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,308
    edited January 23
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cracking piece

    This question probably arises from early onset dementia but what Alliance are we talking about?

    The SDP/Liberal Alliance before their official merger, whose victory in 1983 would have been very good for Britain. I remember David Steel in David Owen's pocket on Spitting Image.
  • When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok , thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    I'm expecting the usual Redfield & Wilton tomorrow and YouGov Wed/Thur and then a plethora of polls over the weekend, assuming the Gray report is published Thursday/Friday.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cracking piece

    This question probably arises from early onset dementia but what Alliance are we talking about?

    The SDP/Liberal Alliance before their official merger, whose victory in 1983 would have been very good for Britain. I remember David Steel in David Owen's pocket on Spitting Image.
    Ty
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697

    Just took part in a YouGov poll of Tory Party members, so we should see that soon.

    Have you rejoined?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,407
    (FPT)
    Dura_Ace said:

    What do the non-noninterventionsts want the UK government to do in Ukraine? Specifically.

    Any proposal has to be something that is both physically possible with what's left of the armed forces and something that won't get cockblocked by the Americans.

    What we are doing already - supplying arms and training, and encouraging other European allies to do likewise.
    The idea of a UK expeditionary force is entirely fanciful.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,252
    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837
  • philiph said:

    Just took part in a YouGov poll of Tory Party members, so we should see that soon.

    Have you rejoined?
    Yes, purely in the hope to stop one of the moonbat people taking over from Boris Johnson.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697

    philiph said:

    Just took part in a YouGov poll of Tory Party members, so we should see that soon.

    Have you rejoined?
    Yes, purely in the hope to stop one of the moonbat people taking over from Boris Johnson.
    Very wise action, and the only sensible reason to be a member right now.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,828
    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    That's clearly a move to try and ensure a rapid elevation without a vote.

    As otherwise the NI increase will be in place before the leadership election is finished.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,651

    Just took part in a YouGov poll of Tory Party members, so we should see that soon.

    Once a Tory-Boy, always a Tory-Boy!
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    This is "her truth", and therefore we must accept it at face value.

    A cynic would suggest that she's made it politically impossible for the new leader not to reappoint her, probably to a Cabinet role. That's sheer coincidence, of course.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    This is "her truth", and therefore we must accept it at face value.

    A cynic would suggest that she's made it politically impossible for the new leader not to reappoint her, probably to a Cabinet role. That's sheer coincidence, of course.
    Pushy of her. If she doesn't like it here she could always go back to where she came from.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,162
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    I do wonder what my MP, Trudi Harrison, Boris's PPS, thinks of the current imbroglio.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,303
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Dura_Ace said:

    What do the non-noninterventionsts want the UK government to do in Ukraine? Specifically.

    Any proposal has to be something that is both physically possible with what's left of the armed forces and something that won't get cockblocked by the Americans.

    What we are doing already - supplying arms and training, and encouraging other European allies to do likewise.
    The idea of a UK expeditionary force is entirely fanciful.
    For shits and giggles, we could give the Ukranians one suitcase nuclear device.

    I say this in jest, of course. But aren't the Ukranians capable of producing something like this themselves?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    I do wonder what my MP, Trudi Harrison, Boris's PPS, thinks of the current imbroglio.
    Yes. That's all a bit on the back burner, but the claim that she wrote to Wallace in her mp capacity is I hope something which is going to be explored.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Dura_Ace said:

    What do the non-noninterventionsts want the UK government to do in Ukraine? Specifically.

    Any proposal has to be something that is both physically possible with what's left of the armed forces and something that won't get cockblocked by the Americans.

    What we are doing already - supplying arms and training, and encouraging other European allies to do likewise.
    The idea of a UK expeditionary force is entirely fanciful.
    For shits and giggles, we could give the Ukranians one suitcase nuclear device.

    I say this in jest, of course. But aren't the Ukranians capable of producing something like this themselves?
    Generates a lot of power from nuclear

    NNPT though
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,407
    At the risk of folk being tired of this stuff, a very good thread going into why, mechanistically, in the particular case of Covid, antibodies from vaccination are much to be preferred to those from infection.
    https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1485217124125663232
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,410
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    Rishi Sunak *is* the heir apparent. The opinion polls tell us that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,252
    "She would've had no confidence in the complaints process".

    Former chairman of the Conservative Muslim Forum, Mohammed Amin, says Nusrat Ghani probably feared the Tory Party would've "turned on her" if she had filed a complaint of Islamophobia.

    https://trib.al/9vs6Ft6 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1485262266903769089/video/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,252
    U.K. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has more than enough room to protect households from a sharp rise in energy bills in April and still cut taxes before the next general election, official forecasts are expected to show https://trib.al/tpITpqb
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,162
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    This is "her truth", and therefore we must accept it at face value.

    A cynic would suggest that she's made it politically impossible for the new leader not to reappoint her, probably to a Cabinet role. That's sheer coincidence, of course.
    I can very easily see a way in which what both parties have said could be reconciled. It is not at all uncommon in my experience for people to remember only parts of a conversation or to take the wrong meaning or intention from what is said or to say some things but not mean what the other person takes from them etc. And it is also easy for people to later draw conclusions from what is said which were not intended.

    Where the truth lies here who knows. The failure is not getting to grips with the issue at the time. Big problems never start out that way. They always start out as small issues which are ignored and so get worse.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,252
    Meanwhile: Liz Truss Instagram stories in full campaign video mode, complete with emotive background music https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1485263623534612482/photo/1
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,303
    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Dura_Ace said:

    What do the non-noninterventionsts want the UK government to do in Ukraine? Specifically.

    Any proposal has to be something that is both physically possible with what's left of the armed forces and something that won't get cockblocked by the Americans.

    What we are doing already - supplying arms and training, and encouraging other European allies to do likewise.
    The idea of a UK expeditionary force is entirely fanciful.
    For shits and giggles, we could give the Ukranians one suitcase nuclear device.

    I say this in jest, of course. But aren't the Ukranians capable of producing something like this themselves?
    Generates a lot of power from nuclear

    NNPT though
    If Russian tanks are spotted on the horizon of Kiev, I wonder how much that treaty will matter.

    If I were the Ukranian government, I would seriously consider packing as much nuclear material into a dirty bomb as possible, popping it in a suitcase in the back of the Lada, and having a couple of "tourists" drive it up to the walls of the Kremlin right about now.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,010
    Afternoon all :)

    The point about 1997 is hugely valid. The Conservatives were saved in a number of seats by Labour, from third, rather than the LDs, from second, improving their vote share. Michael Howard in Folkestone & Hythe being one such example.

    As for next time, the number of seats where the LDs are challengers to the Conservatives are fewer and even some of the 1997 gains have faded from sight (to be replaced by others such as St Albans). The problem is the LDs start from such a long way back and the national polling remains close to the 2019 numbers.

    A 10% swing would 26 Conservative seats fall and that has to be the aim for the party. Some of those are less likely than they look - conversely, one or two outside the 10% might be more likely. I've always thought 20-25 gains would be the top end of LD prospects though of course if the Conservative vote collapsed sub 30% many others would be within range.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,785
    edited January 23

    An interesting analysis. In the LibDem graphs, the 31 seats in 1983 are rather different to the 14 seats in 2019, so I’m not convinced that a direct comparison like this is valid. Maybe these results are not about tactical voting, but just about where is a LibDem marginal shifting over time…?

    Fair point, and I didn’t mention in the piece that the Labour - Lib Dem front has all but vanished.

    But I think this is where the second charts are useful. They compare like with like for each election. Yes, you might expect each party to do better in its marginals as having more of the vote is likely to make them marginals. But, as is often the case, it’s the trend that’s interesting. And 2019 didn’t look that different to 2015 or 2017.

    EDIT: actually, 2015 was different - the Lib Dems didn’t get as much of a boost in the marginals, which is perhaps explained by their participation in the coalition government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,471
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile: Liz Truss Instagram stories in full campaign video mode, complete with emotive background music https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1485263623534612482/photo/1

    LOL! Quite the shrinking violet
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Cyclefree said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    This is "her truth", and therefore we must accept it at face value.

    A cynic would suggest that she's made it politically impossible for the new leader not to reappoint her, probably to a Cabinet role. That's sheer coincidence, of course.
    I can very easily see a way in which what both parties have said could be reconciled. It is not at all uncommon in my experience for people to remember only parts of a conversation or to take the wrong meaning or intention from what is said or to say some things but not mean what the other person takes from them etc. And it is also easy for people to later draw conclusions from what is said which were not intended.

    Where the truth lies here who knows. The failure is not getting to grips with the issue at the time. Big problems never start out that way. They always start out as small issues which are ignored and so get worse.

    Indeed so. And maybe she didn't really think much about it at the time, but what's happened since has caused her to place a less charitable interpretation on it than she previously had.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,162

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    Rishi Sunak *is* the heir apparent. The opinion polls tell us that.
    No. Being Prime Minister is an elected position. This is not a monarchy. I am really fed up with this idea that the role of PM is something to which someone should feel entitled.

    Let him or anyone else bloody earn it by persuading voters at a GE not a tiny constituency of MPs and whoever are the members of the Tory party. We had Brown foisted on us, then May then Boris. Only 1 of those won a GE. I don't want a Sunak or Truss or A.N. Other foisted on us. Who leads the country affects all of us. It's not just some Tory party game.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,785
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The point about 1997 is hugely valid. The Conservatives were saved in a number of seats by Labour, from third, rather than the LDs, from second, improving their vote share. Michael Howard in Folkestone & Hythe being one such example.

    As for next time, the number of seats where the LDs are challengers to the Conservatives are fewer and even some of the 1997 gains have faded from sight (to be replaced by others such as St Albans). The problem is the LDs start from such a long way back and the national polling remains close to the 2019 numbers.

    A 10% swing would 26 Conservative seats fall and that has to be the aim for the party. Some of those are less likely than they look - conversely, one or two outside the 10% might be more likely. I've always thought 20-25 gains would be the top end of LD prospects though of course if the Conservative vote collapsed sub 30% many others would be within range.

    Lol at the Folkestone and Hythe result in 1997. I think part of the issue is that in places like that and Woking (where I live), it’s difficult to get the Labour vote to switch in big enough numbers.

    I think Nick Palmer made the point recently that the Lib Dem vote might improve closer to the election (at the expense of Labour) as people start to think about their own seat.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,893
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    Rishi Sunak *is* the heir apparent. The opinion polls tell us that.
    No. Being Prime Minister is an elected position. This is not a monarchy. I am really fed up with this idea that the role of PM is something to which someone should feel entitled.

    Let him or anyone else bloody earn it by persuading voters at a GE not a tiny constituency of MPs and whoever are the members of the Tory party. We had Brown foisted on us, then May then Boris. Only 1 of those won a GE. I don't want a Sunak or Truss or A.N. Other foisted on us. Who leads the country affects all of us. It's not just some Tory party game.
    I'm afraid that so long as we carry on with the system of professional politicians, we'll have party games.

    Sortition is the answer.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,382
    edited January 23
    Doug Beattie the latest Unionist white hope being twatty on Twitter. Lots of 'ye can't even make a joke anymore' guff on the accompanying thread. Regardless of the acceptability or not of the gag, indicative of entire absence of love between folk ostensibly on the same side.

    https://twitter.com/BeattieDoug/status/1485179816261398530?s=20


  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,327
    Cyclefree said:

    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    This is "her truth", and therefore we must accept it at face value.

    A cynic would suggest that she's made it politically impossible for the new leader not to reappoint her, probably to a Cabinet role. That's sheer coincidence, of course.
    I can very easily see a way in which what both parties have said could be reconciled. It is not at all uncommon in my experience for people to remember only parts of a conversation or to take the wrong meaning or intention from what is said or to say some things but not mean what the other person takes from them etc. And it is also easy for people to later draw conclusions from what is said which were not intended.

    Where the truth lies here who knows. The failure is not getting to grips with the issue at the time. Big problems never start out that way. They always start out as small issues which are ignored and so get worse.

    Indeed. I think Chris Argyris coined this the ladder of inference Essentially:
    1. We observe only a small part of the universe in front of us
    2. From this small selection of facts that we observe, we create a story
    3. From that story, we create meaning
    4. To that meaning, we add assumptions
    5. Which create or modify beliefs
    6. Which generate emotions
    7. which result in actions
    8. and our beliefs then act as a filter or a narrowing of the data we select to choose from all the available information in the environment.

    Whenever I hear a friend or colleague or relation telling me what someone's intention was behind a perceived harm or slight, I ask them to walk back from that belief of the others' intent all the things that they have added in their own head to get back to the actual dispassionate facts, and then to ask what other facts might there be that I missed or did not look for which might offer an alternative explanation.

    Rarely are what we perceive as intentional slights anything to do with us at all, but are usually about something or someone else in the other's life.

    That is not to say that people do not act with intent to harm. Just that that is far rarer than we assume.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,822
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    I’m finding myself accidentally defending Sunak a lot today but not intentionally shilling for him.

    You are correct that he could have resigned if he didn’t like the policy but I don’t agree he could have just “stopped it”.

    He’s not the PM - however much we don’t think Boris is suitable as PM he is PM and so the boss. If he wants this (it might not be his baby but assuming it is) then Sunak really has two options. First as you said “resign” which would have rocked the boat massively before we were where we are now so quite a nuclear option.

    The second option was to say “I’m going to stay and try and limit the damage, try and maybe reason or change PM’s mind over time or find ways to balance a bad policy. I can’t do this if I’m not CotE so best I stay because the replacement might just nod through whatever they are told to.”

    So resigning on principle is good but sometimes it’s better to stay and try and fix things from the inside where you actually can do something other than snipe from the back-benches.

    We don’t know what conversations were had behind the scenes so we cannot presume he either just quietly acquiesced or argued the point but ultimately Chairman Boris over-ruled.

    It might have completely been his idea in which case that will no doubt soon be briefed and leaked if so.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    edited January 23
    On topic: it's worth reminding ourselves just how few marginals (based on the definition in the article, i.e. being 10% or less behind the winner) are available to the Liberal Democrats. A grand total of 15, of which 13 are held by the Conservatives (and in the two London seats amongst that number - Wimbledon, and Cities of London and Westminster - third-placed Labour won over ten thousand votes in 2019, and will presumably want to mount a strong effort of their own.) That leaves the yellows with only eleven straight Con-LD marginals where they might have a reasonable expectation of squeezing the Labour vote to take the win.

    Assuming that the Liberal Democrats held everything they already have and won all of those eleven targets as well, that'd get them back to a position slightly better than they held after 1992. That could be very important if the overall election result is very close, but it'll get them nowhere near recapturing third party status from the SNP.

    It seems that any prospect of a major Liberal Democrat revival is going to require either several electoral cycles, or a very substantial Conservative collapse. For context, if the Lib Dems were to hold their current 13 seats and capture all of the top 33 Con-LD marginals, then that would get them back to the total of 46 seats that they won in 1997. Marginal number 33 (as ordered by swing needed to capture) is Totnes, which Anthony Mangnall took back from Sarah Wollaston in 2019 with a majority of nearly 13,000, as well as an absolute majority of all the votes cast.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    Nigelb said:

    At the risk of folk being tired of this stuff, a very good thread going into why, mechanistically, in the particular case of Covid, antibodies from vaccination are much to be preferred to those from infection.
    https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1485217124125663232

    No need to apologise, quite the reverse: most interesting suggestion.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,253
    edited January 23
    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,459

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,382
    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    I'll strike you off the Ireland should rejoin the UK list then.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    :lol: what an idiotic post
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    Rishi Sunak *is* the heir apparent. The opinion polls tell us that.
    No. Being Prime Minister is an elected position. This is not a monarchy. I am really fed up with this idea that the role of PM is something to which someone should feel entitled.

    Let him or anyone else bloody earn it by persuading voters at a GE not a tiny constituency of MPs and whoever are the members of the Tory party. We had Brown foisted on us, then May then Boris. Only 1 of those won a GE. I don't want a Sunak or Truss or A.N. Other foisted on us. Who leads the country affects all of us. It's not just some Tory party game.
    The Prime Minister is chosen by parliament. When you elect an MP it has their party membership listed on the ballot, not the name of who they are supporting as PM.

    I do agree the choice of PM should be formalized in a parliamentary vote.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    :lol: what an idiotic post
    If you don't have arguments to defend the free riding and the tax haven and the former terrorists, then just admit to it. Vapid insults reflect on you more than me.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited January 23
    .......
    pigeon said:

    On topic: it's worth reminding ourselves just how few marginals (based on the definition in the article, i.e. being 10% or less behind the winner) are available to the Liberal Democrats. A grand total of 15, of which 13 are held by the Conservatives (and in the two London seats amongst that number - Wimbledon, and Cities of London and Westminster - third-placed Labour won over ten thousand votes in 2019, and will presumably want to mount a strong effort of their own.) That leaves the yellows with only eleven straight Con-LD marginals where they might have a reasonable expectation of squeezing the Labour vote to take the win.

    Assuming that the Liberal Democrats held everything they already have and won all of those eleven targets as well, that'd get them back to a position slightly better than they held after 1992. That could be very important if the overall election result is very close, but it'll get them nowhere near recapturing third party status from the SNP.

    It seems that any prospect of a major Liberal Democrat revival is going to require either several electoral cycles, or a very substantial Conservative collapse. For context, if the Lib Dems were to hold their current 13 seats and capture all of the top 33 Con-LD marginals, then that would get them back to the total of 46 seats that they won in 1997. Marginal number 33 (as ordered by swing needed to capture) is Totnes, which Anthony Mangnall took back from Sarah Wollaston in 2019 with a majority of nearly 13,000, as well as an absolute majority of all the votes cast.

    Depends what happens to the Tory vote I think, If it drops to 33-35% at the next election and the Lib Dems get up to 15% they could gain up to 20 Tory seats and win seats like Romsey, Wantage, Wokingham, Woking, Harrogate, Taunton and hold Chesham and Amersham as a best case scenario. Otherwise, if the Tories recover to 40% say, I think they are limited to around 10-12 gains if they are lucky and will find seats lime St Ives and Hazel Grove more difficult to gain than they look.

    I can't see how the Lib Dems win any seats in Devon for the foreseeable future, that looks completely gone for them. Sarah Wollaston did as well as she could in 2019 as I never believed that seat was winnable.


    I'm also interested to see what happens in Westminster and especially Finchley at the local elections as the Lib Dem votes in 2019 may or may not have been a flash in the pan for the LDs in 2019.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,253
    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    Er… you are aware that the Tories were once considered a terrorist outfit, aren’t you? Revolutionary Jacobites actively organising a coup with French assistance were considered to be traitors.

    You also might want to rephrase your sentence defaming the Catholic Church (OGH alert).
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    I'll strike you off the Ireland should rejoin the UK list then.
    Would rather we get rid of NI. The fewer people that start violently rioting over flags the better.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,988
    edited January 23
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    Rishi Sunak *is* the heir apparent. The opinion polls tell us that.
    No. Being Prime Minister is an elected position. This is not a monarchy. I am really fed up with this idea that the role of PM is something to which someone should feel entitled.

    Let him or anyone else bloody earn it by persuading voters at a GE not a tiny constituency of MPs and whoever are the members of the Tory party. We had Brown foisted on us, then May then Boris. Only 1 of those won a GE. I don't want a Sunak or Truss or A.N. Other foisted on us. Who leads the country affects all of us. It's not just some Tory party game.
    But the role of PM is not and never has been a directly elected position.

    What do you propose? That Parties can't change leaders midterm? That Boris is compelled to remain PM and thus Party Leader regardless of what MPs and the Parliamentary Conservative Party thinks?

    Your "this is not a monarchy" point is relevant because this (as in the UK) is a monarchy and that creates this scenario.

    Presidents are often directly elected. Prime Ministers almost never are.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    Aslan said:

    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    :lol: what an idiotic post
    If you don't have arguments to defend the free riding and the tax haven and the former terrorists, then just admit to it. Vapid insults reflect on you more than me.
    :lol: I'm sorry I'll try hard to post more serious analyses like "TERRORISTS AND KIDDIE FIDDLERS. UNETHICAL!" in future.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    Er… you are aware that the Tories were once considered a terrorist outfit, aren’t you? Revolutionary Jacobites actively organising a coup with French assistance were considered to be traitors.

    You also might want to rephrase your sentence defaming the Catholic Church (OGH alert).
    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834. You seem to be confusing them with a political faction from a century earlier that shared the same nickname.

    I also referred to a religion, not a specific organization, so you can run along with your cancel culture.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,253

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    I'll strike you off the Ireland should rejoin the UK list then.
    This morning it was New Zealand getting it in the neck, now it’s Ireland. According to some BritNats, London is the only place anybody should ever be ruled from.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,572
    edited January 23
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile: Liz Truss Instagram stories in full campaign video mode, complete with emotive background music https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1485263623534612482/photo/1

    LOL! Quite the shrinking violet
    I’m telling you all now, her hair stylist is winning this.

    Truss the “hair apparent”
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,477
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    I'll strike you off the Ireland should rejoin the UK list then.
    Would rather we get rid of NI. The fewer people that start violently rioting over flags the better.
    I'm of the 'get rid of NI' mindset too.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    I'll strike you off the Ireland should rejoin the UK list then.
    This morning it was New Zealand getting it in the neck, now it’s Ireland. According to some BritNats, London is the only place anybody should ever be ruled from.
    Accusing me of wanting Ireland ruled from London after I specifically said I want less of Ireland ruled from London... you do struggle, don't you? Please keep up.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,253
    edited January 23
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    Er… you are aware that the Tories were once considered a terrorist outfit, aren’t you? Revolutionary Jacobites actively organising a coup with French assistance were considered to be traitors.

    You also might want to rephrase your sentence defaming the Catholic Church (OGH alert).
    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834. You seem to be confusing them with a political faction from a century earlier that shared the same nickname.

    I also referred to a religion, not a specific organization, so you can run along with your cancel culture.
    You might want to self-cancel for five minutes. Go lie down with your favourite teddy and your Union Jack blankie. Once rested, sip a cup of tea, eat a chocky biccy, peck your wife on the cheek, then come back and play nicely with the bigger children.
  • Omnium said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    I'll strike you off the Ireland should rejoin the UK list then.
    Would rather we get rid of NI. The fewer people that start violently rioting over flags the better.
    I'm of the 'get rid of NI' mindset too.
    Absolutely get rid of National Insurance. 👍

    Oh the other NI? Yeah get rid of that too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited January 23

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    Rishi Sunak *is* the heir apparent. The opinion polls tell us that.
    No. Being Prime Minister is an elected position. This is not a monarchy. I am really fed up with this idea that the role of PM is something to which someone should feel entitled.

    Let him or anyone else bloody earn it by persuading voters at a GE not a tiny constituency of MPs and whoever are the members of the Tory party. We had Brown foisted on us, then May then Boris. Only 1 of those won a GE. I don't want a Sunak or Truss or A.N. Other foisted on us. Who leads the country affects all of us. It's not just some Tory party game.
    What do you propose? That Parties can't change leaders midterm?
    That, I think, is the common position in many European countries.

    The constructed coalitions are so intricate, that it would shatter like a crystal if the key position changed. Consider the setup in Germany at present, or that the Netherlands spent 9 months creating a new government.

    Some people on Euro Twitter get quite bemused at the idea of leader changes or cabinet reshuffles without changing the Government.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,572

    Doug Beattie the latest Unionist white hope being twatty on Twitter. Lots of 'ye can't even make a joke anymore' guff on the accompanying thread. Regardless of the acceptability or not of the gag, indicative of entire absence of love between folk ostensibly on the same side.

    https://twitter.com/BeattieDoug/status/1485179816261398530?s=20


    Palestinian Liberation Front versus the Liberation Front of Palestine.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,828

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As we discussed on T&G this morning, the most interesting political development of the whole day is the MoS’s line that Rishi Sunak now refers to the social care levy as “the Prime Minister’s tax”. If he does, it’s dead in the water and we won’t see it in April.

    Well worth also noting that Dominic Raab would now only defend its introduction in April at the 4th time of me asking him on @TimesRadio this morning, and then only I asked him yes or no. A policy who’s only friend left in Whitehall is the PM.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1485253815930654721

    Oh for crying out loud. He's the bloody Chancellor. If he didn't like it he should have stopped it or resigned (a threat to do so would have been enough). But this pathetic "I'm happy to be part of the gang when it does well but when it doesn't, no, I had nothing to do with it, saw nothing did nothing, said nothing" is dreadful.

    The more he does this the less I think him fit to be PM.

    Also I really dislike this Gordon Brown-style assumption that he is the heir apparent.
    Rishi Sunak *is* the heir apparent. The opinion polls tell us that.
    No. Being Prime Minister is an elected position. This is not a monarchy. I am really fed up with this idea that the role of PM is something to which someone should feel entitled.

    Let him or anyone else bloody earn it by persuading voters at a GE not a tiny constituency of MPs and whoever are the members of the Tory party. We had Brown foisted on us, then May then Boris. Only 1 of those won a GE. I don't want a Sunak or Truss or A.N. Other foisted on us. Who leads the country affects all of us. It's not just some Tory party game.
    But the role of PM is not and never has been a directly elected position.

    What do you propose? That Parties can't change leaders midterm? That Boris is compelled to remain PM and thus Party Leader regardless of what MPs and the Parliamentary Conservative Party thinks?

    Your "this is not a monarchy" point is relevant because this (as in the UK) is a monarchy and that creates this scenario.

    Presidents are often directly elected. Prime Ministers almost never are.
    If Boris had been elected President in 2019 there would be nothing anyone could do to replace him until the next election in 2023/2024.

    I can see why @Cyclefree dislikes the historic method but when you look at the end result of your suggested solution it does look way, way worse.

    But that's the thing quick fixes look easy until you go into the detail and discover the consequences may be worse than the current issue.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,976
    File under the Scottish section of “oh dear. What a shame, Etc”


    “It’s really saddening to see unionists and their press sneering at the pitiful attendance at an independence march. 2 years ago tens of thousands marched now only a few hundred turned out. It is almost criminal what the leadership of AUOB have done to depress numbers like this.”


    https://twitter.com/petewishart/status/1484947632053272582?s=21


    The SNP will never call another Indy vote. It will forever recede into the Hebridean mist. Tantalisingly close, yet perpetually unreachable, like those grapes in that story
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    Doug Beattie the latest Unionist white hope being twatty on Twitter. Lots of 'ye can't even make a joke anymore' guff on the accompanying thread. Regardless of the acceptability or not of the gag, indicative of entire absence of love between folk ostensibly on the same side.

    https://twitter.com/BeattieDoug/status/1485179816261398530?s=20


    Palestinian Liberation Front versus the Liberation Front of Palestine.
    The People's Front of Judea and the Judean People's Front, shurely...?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,572
    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Dura_Ace said:

    What do the non-noninterventionsts want the UK government to do in Ukraine? Specifically.

    Any proposal has to be something that is both physically possible with what's left of the armed forces and something that won't get cockblocked by the Americans.

    What we are doing already - supplying arms and training, and encouraging other European allies to do likewise.
    The idea of a UK expeditionary force is entirely fanciful.
    For shits and giggles, we could give the Ukranians one suitcase nuclear device.

    I say this in jest, of course. But aren't the Ukranians capable of producing something like this themselves?
    Generates a lot of power from nuclear

    NNPT though
    In an ironic twist - Ukraine political leaders get sozzled on cheap bubbly. London blows up.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,477



    Absolutely get rid of National Insurance. 👍

    Oh the other NI? Yeah get rid of that too.

    When your careless you can get likes from Sturat Dickson. Nobody wants that!

    Northern Ireland, and the Northern Irish are fine so far as it goes. However in reality they're violent nutters. Begone!

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Dura_Ace said:

    What do the non-noninterventionsts want the UK government to do in Ukraine? Specifically.

    Any proposal has to be something that is both physically possible with what's left of the armed forces and something that won't get cockblocked by the Americans.

    What we are doing already - supplying arms and training, and encouraging other European allies to do likewise.
    The idea of a UK expeditionary force is entirely fanciful.
    For shits and giggles, we could give the Ukranians one suitcase nuclear device.

    I say this in jest, of course. But aren't the Ukranians capable of producing something like this themselves?
    Generates a lot of power from nuclear

    NNPT though
    In an ironic twist - Ukraine political leaders get sozzled on cheap bubbly. London blows up.
    causing millions of pounds worth of improvements
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,178
    Leon said:

    File under the Scottish section of “oh dear. What a shame, Etc”


    “It’s really saddening to see unionists and their press sneering at the pitiful attendance at an independence march. 2 years ago tens of thousands marched now only a few hundred turned out. It is almost criminal what the leadership of AUOB have done to depress numbers like this.”


    https://twitter.com/petewishart/status/1484947632053272582?s=21


    The SNP will never call another Indy vote. It will forever recede into the Hebridean mist. Tantalisingly close, yet perpetually unreachable, like those grapes in that story

    Different organizations, actually. Also the march is distinctly off topic as being specifically an anti-BJ march. Better things to do in the time of covid, especially as it's on a par with marching to say that 'kittens are cute' or 'Rangers fans shit in woods'.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19867660.one-banner-glasgow-hundreds-protest-boris-johnson/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,382
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    I'll strike you off the Ireland should rejoin the UK list then.
    Would rather we get rid of NI. The fewer people that start violently rioting over flags the better.
    Aye


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,382
    Leon said:

    File under the Scottish section of “oh dear. What a shame, Etc”


    “It’s really saddening to see unionists and their press sneering at the pitiful attendance at an independence march. 2 years ago tens of thousands marched now only a few hundred turned out. It is almost criminal what the leadership of AUOB have done to depress numbers like this.”


    https://twitter.com/petewishart/status/1484947632053272582?s=21


    The SNP will never call another Indy vote. It will forever recede into the Hebridean mist. Tantalisingly close, yet perpetually unreachable, like those grapes in that story

    Waahey, more top notch tourist class Scotch analysis!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,572
    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
  • That's never a penalty, and I'm a Liverpool fan.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,968
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    File under the Scottish section of “oh dear. What a shame, Etc”


    “It’s really saddening to see unionists and their press sneering at the pitiful attendance at an independence march. 2 years ago tens of thousands marched now only a few hundred turned out. It is almost criminal what the leadership of AUOB have done to depress numbers like this.”


    https://twitter.com/petewishart/status/1484947632053272582?s=21


    The SNP will never call another Indy vote. It will forever recede into the Hebridean mist. Tantalisingly close, yet perpetually unreachable, like those grapes in that story

    Different organizations, actually. Also the march is distinctly off topic as being specifically an anti-BJ march. Better things to do in the time of covid, especially as it's on a par with marching to say that 'kittens are cute' or 'Rangers fans shit in woods'.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19867660.one-banner-glasgow-hundreds-protest-boris-johnson/
    Though let's not kid ourselves the SNP want to see anyone other than themselves as being responsible for the Indy movement.

    Pete Wishart has an absolute fucking cheek.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,470
    If that's a penalty I'm in the Cabinet tomorrow.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,572
    pigeon said:

    Doug Beattie the latest Unionist white hope being twatty on Twitter. Lots of 'ye can't even make a joke anymore' guff on the accompanying thread. Regardless of the acceptability or not of the gag, indicative of entire absence of love between folk ostensibly on the same side.

    https://twitter.com/BeattieDoug/status/1485179816261398530?s=20


    Palestinian Liberation Front versus the Liberation Front of Palestine.
    The People's Front of Judea and the Judean People's Front, shurely...?
    Yep 🤦‍♀️
  • We needed that but it's never a penalty in a universe where I want to watch football.

    https://twitter.com/AndyK_LivNews/status/1485277848428498954
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,976
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    File under the Scottish section of “oh dear. What a shame, Etc”


    “It’s really saddening to see unionists and their press sneering at the pitiful attendance at an independence march. 2 years ago tens of thousands marched now only a few hundred turned out. It is almost criminal what the leadership of AUOB have done to depress numbers like this.”


    https://twitter.com/petewishart/status/1484947632053272582?s=21


    The SNP will never call another Indy vote. It will forever recede into the Hebridean mist. Tantalisingly close, yet perpetually unreachable, like those grapes in that story

    Different organizations, actually. Also the march is distinctly off topic as being specifically an anti-BJ march. Better things to do in the time of covid, especially as it's on a par with marching to say that 'kittens are cute' or 'Rangers fans shit in woods'.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19867660.one-banner-glasgow-hundreds-protest-boris-johnson/

    But all the oomph has gone out of Indy. It is now *something desirable at some time in the future* - no longer an urgent political imperative. Moreover, it doesn’t have to be imperative, for the SNP, they still reign supreme at Holyrood, with all the perks of power and almost zero hassle. Everything bad can be blamed on London

    The fact the pro-Indy factions are now squabbling, bitterly, is a classic symptom of a stagnant cause

    I guess at some point the more militant YESSERS will turn on Sturgeon, or her successor, for their failure to secure a vote, but she is awfully good at fending them off…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,512

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    I'd have thought the simple explanation was that Morrison surprised quite a bit last time as the Coalition had been behind consistently for 3 years, so 2022 was going to be hard.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963
    dixiedean said:

    If that's a penalty I'm in the Cabinet tomorrow.

    Good news! We could do with some people of intelligence and integrity rather than the current bunch of useless tossers.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    Er… you are aware that the Tories were once considered a terrorist outfit, aren’t you? Revolutionary Jacobites actively organising a coup with French assistance were considered to be traitors.

    You also might want to rephrase your sentence defaming the Catholic Church (OGH alert).
    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834. You seem to be confusing them with a political faction from a century earlier that shared the same nickname.

    I also referred to a religion, not a specific organization, so you can run along with your cancel culture.
    You might want to self-cancel for five minutes. Go lie down with your favourite teddy and your Union Jack blankie. Once rested, sip a cup of tea, eat a chocky biccy, peck your wife on the cheek, then come back and play nicely with the bigger children.
    I see I have hit a nerve with the Celtic Nats. Come back when you have an actual argument.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,512
    dixiedean said:

    If that's a penalty I'm in the Cabinet tomorrow.

    I hope you do a good job. Try to make friends with likely successor PMs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    If that's a penalty I'm in the Cabinet tomorrow.

    I hope you do a good job. Try to make friends with likely successor PMs.
    Never mind that, can we persuade @dixiedean to go straight for the top job?
  • Not going to lie but I still want to have Alisson Becker's babies, I don't care how messy the conception is.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-60103323

    How does the Welsh Govt argue it’s not “playing politics” with a straight face? There is a legitimate debate to be had about vaccine mandates in the NHS and/or care homes in England - but how does one seriously argue against them in combination with a policy of vaccine passports for the general population?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,572

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,963

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,477
    Complete nonsese in the header (sorry). The LDs are meaningless.
This discussion has been closed.