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ANALYSING LABOUR-LIB DEM TACTICAL VOTING SINCE 1983 – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
  • Leon said:

    The Spectator eviscerates the SAGE modellers, again


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sage-vs-actual-update-as-of-22-jan

    Right now is when we are meant to be seeing 600-6000 deaths a day. Yesterday was 274 - most of them “with” Covid

    The article rightly skewers Chris Whitby for his remarks saying “all we know about Omicron is bad” when we had data that showed the opposite

    The boffins must be held to account in any inquiry

    OMICRON THE PAPER TIGER

    You heard it here first.
  • Cyclefree said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    I do wonder what my MP, Trudi Harrison, Boris's PPS, thinks of the current imbroglio.
    Whatever she thinks in her innermost thoughts, at present she's no doubt badgering Tory MPs and those with serious influence upon / over them, like . . . like a crazed badger!

    Though back in 1990, if diaries of Alan Clark (son of Lord Clark of Civilization) are to be believed, Margaret Thatcher's PPS was less-than-vigorous in his advocacy.

    Not so with Lord Home back in 1940 when he was Neville Chamberlain's PPS. At least according to my memory re: diaries of Harold Nicholson and Chips Cannon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Leon said:

    The Spectator eviscerates the SAGE modellers, again


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sage-vs-actual-update-as-of-22-jan

    Right now is when we are meant to be seeing 600-6000 deaths a day. Yesterday was 274 - most of them “with” Covid

    The article rightly skewers Chris Whitby for his remarks saying “all we know about Omicron is bad” when we had data that showed the opposite

    The boffins must be held to account in any inquiry

    OMICRON THE PAPER TIGER

    You heard it here first.
    His rivals said it in the last French presidential election.

    Oh sorry, omicron not Oh, Macron?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    The key thing will be the Janet and John bit. I would suggest something like this.

    'Coming as I do from the position of a neutral investigator, it is
    Unfortunately very obvious that even if the letter of the law wasn't broken,
    Numerous things were done that broke the spirit of it, this involves
    [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and
    So I am making a recommendation they all be disciplined for their actions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    I don't see how Gray and people who have told her things would not go public if that happened.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Not an expert, but I presume De Gaulle is still considered “good” and I’m not aware of any crook allegations. Do enlighten us.
  • Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    "The Brits partitioned MY country too, you know!" :lol:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    The key thing will be the Janet and John bit. I would suggest something like this.

    'Coming as I do from the position of a neutral investigator, it is
    Unfortunately very obvious that even if the letter of the law wasn't broken,
    Numerous things were done that broke the spirit of it, this involves
    [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and
    So I am making a recommendation they all be disciplined for their actions.
    It will be consise, clear, and limited.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Not an expert, but I presume De Gaulle is still considered “good” and I’m not aware of any crook allegations. Do enlighten us.
    You mean apart from taking power in a coup?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    He was a Bronski Beat fan. He put down The Communards.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    He was a Bronski Beat fan. He put down The Communards.
    I was taking that as Red. But he still gets high Marx for it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    The key thing will be the Janet and John bit. I would suggest something like this.

    'Coming as I do from the position of a neutral investigator, it is
    Unfortunately very obvious that even if the letter of the law wasn't broken,
    Numerous things were done that broke the spirit of it,
    This involves [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and
    So I am making a recommendation they all be disciplined for their actions.
    Nobody's interested in any of that anyway. Did Reynolds speak to Johnson? Nothing else matters.

    Edited the layout of the quoted text
  • Excellent analysis by TLG86, esp. as it is provides a plethora of data to back it up.

    Might be interesting to, in broad terms, compare the trends & patterns 1982 - 2022, with 1905 - 1945?

    Each an era of significant shifts, surges, collapses, twists, turns & rollercoaster rides for politicos, parties & the Great British Public.

    And the interval 1946 - 1982 was NOT without its ups & downs, and while tactical voting was a factor both Orpington Man and Jeremy Thorpe made fleeting appearances on the political state. Until that is the former petered out, and the later got the hook.
  • eek said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    So in addition to Ireland's immorality over free riding on the NATO defence umbrella and leeching on the tax base of neighbours, they are now choosing a former terrorist group as the next government. I guess they needed to replace looking the other way as their national religion abused a generation of kids. What an unethical country.
    Er… you are aware that the Tories were once considered a terrorist outfit, aren’t you? Revolutionary Jacobites actively organising a coup with French assistance were considered to be traitors.

    You also might want to rephrase your sentence defaming the Catholic Church (OGH alert).
    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834. You seem to be confusing them with a political faction from a century earlier that shared the same nickname.

    I also referred to a religion, not a specific organization, so you can run along with your cancel culture.
    You might want to self-cancel for five minutes. Go lie down with your favourite teddy and your Union Jack blankie. Once rested, sip a cup of tea, eat a chocky biccy, peck your wife on the cheek, then come back and play nicely with the bigger children.
    I see I have hit a nerve with the Celtic Nats. Come back when you have an actual argument.
    Could I ask that you follow your own advice and come back with one which explains why Ireland's current polling exists.

    Hint the political party that grew out of the IRA and has been successful enough that the terrorists decided that more violence wasn't worthwhile - is not the party it was in the 1980s or even 2000.
    Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael ALL have their roots in various splits of the original 1905 incarnation of SF. Even Irish Labour could be said to have a link, given that they merged with Democratic Left, who had their origins in the Officials.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    And the full report accidentally tragically leaks the following day.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    What the fuck are you drinking
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    Macron is like an overly-intense girlfriend.
    Donnons-nous un break.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    If Sunak succeeds Boris, this will be the first time in hundreds of years (OK, since Jacques Chirac?) that the leader of the French has been taller than the leader of the UK

    I DON’T LIKE THE SYMBOLISM
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    The key thing will be the Janet and John bit. I would suggest something like this.

    'Coming as I do from the position of a neutral investigator, it is
    Unfortunately very obvious that even if the letter of the law wasn't broken,
    Numerous things were done that broke the spirit of it, this involves
    [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and
    So I am making a recommendation they all be disciplined for their actions.
    “This involves [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and the tethered goat.”
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    If Sunak succeeds Boris, this will be the first time in hundreds of years (OK, since Jacques Chirac?) that the leader of the French has been taller than the leader of the UK

    I DON’T LIKE THE SYMBOLISM

    Indeed, how could we look down on the French?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Omnium said:

    Complete nonsese in the header (sorry). The LDs are meaningless.

    You really don't like the LDs, do you?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_North_Shropshire_by-election

    It was 5 weeks ago and the Conservatives have done so well since then !!
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Charles de Gaulle?

    Think he passes the "I'm not a crook" test (which author of phrase did NOT).

    As for whether or not he was actually any good, despite obvious demerits, and reasonable debate over what "good" actually means, think on balance he more than makes the grade.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    What the fuck are you drinking
    lol

    Gin martinis, again. And large,

    But I’m serious. And if you argue my point, you have to offer me a French leader who would be better. There is no De Gaulle or Madame Thatcher waiting in the wings

    This time around they have Zemmour (interesting but mad), Le Pen (yawn, also a bit mad, still), some anonymous centre right woman, the terrible commie mayor of Paris, and various other also-rans

    Macron has proved he is competent and apparently quite honest. He may be REDACTED but he’;s not having embarrassing affairs on a scooter. He always looks smart with that nice crisp white shirt on his elfin figure (oddly like Sunak)

    I also think he’s better than Hollande (not hard) and better than Sarko (who promised much and had the much hotter wife but in the end was ineffectual)

    That’s all I’m saying. He’s pretty good by the notably poor standard of recent French presidents, so he will win again

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    Bloody hell, that's a first. I more or less agree with Nick Leon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Leon said:

    The Spectator eviscerates the SAGE modellers, again


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sage-vs-actual-update-as-of-22-jan

    Right now is when we are meant to be seeing 600-6000 deaths a day. Yesterday was 274 - most of them “with” Covid

    The article rightly skewers Chris Whitby for his remarks saying “all we know about Omicron is bad” when we had data that showed the opposite

    The boffins must be held to account in any inquiry

    OMICRON THE PAPER TIGER

    You heard it here first.
    It was potentially a very real tiger, wrestled to submission by Boris Johnson through a comprehensive vaccination programme and the implementation of Plan B.

    (And I am not taking the p***, and in the grand scheme of things he is still a useless ar**.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    Macron is like an overly-intense girlfriend.
    Donnons-nous un break.
    A very good analogy, but it does not rebut my argument

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    Complete nonsese in the header (sorry). The LDs are meaningless.

    You really don't like the LDs, do you?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_North_Shropshire_by-election

    It was 5 weeks ago and the Conservatives have done so well since then !!
    No - I don't like them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited January 2022

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Charles de Gaulle?

    Think he passes the "I'm not a crook" test (which author of phrase did NOT).

    As for whether or not he was actually any good, despite obvious demerits, and reasonable debate over what "good" actually means, think on balance he more than makes the grade.
    As I noted above, I consider people who deliberately engineer massive instability and military reverses to seize power in a coup while pretending to support the constitution and the civilian government do *not* pass that test.
  • TimT said:

    Leon said:

    If Sunak succeeds Boris, this will be the first time in hundreds of years (OK, since Jacques Chirac?) that the leader of the French has been taller than the leader of the UK

    I DON’T LIKE THE SYMBOLISM

    Indeed, how could we look down on the French?
    Was going to say, in the traditional manner, by standing on the White Cliffs of Dover.

    Sadly turns out that Cap Griz Nez is allegedly 24 meters higher. But maybe in feet & inches it's different?
  • Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    Sounds like Jerry Ford with a beret.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.
    I see you were stung by my charge that you never surprise.
  • ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    The key thing will be the Janet and John bit. I would suggest something like this.

    'Coming as I do from the position of a neutral investigator, it is
    Unfortunately very obvious that even if the letter of the law wasn't broken,
    Numerous things were done that broke the spirit of it, this involves
    [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and
    So I am making a recommendation they all be disciplined for their actions.
    In which case, like those review quotes you get on movie posters, Boris will go with "The Law Wasn't Broken", and probably eat the rest of the report.

    What we all have to hope is that Ms Gray can write a report where a misleading pecis is impossible. That's doable, it's the same skill good teachers use when giving instructions to Year 9, as you know. But it's not easy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    He was a Bronski Beat fan. He put down The Communards.
    I was taking that as Red. But he still gets high Marx for it.
    We're talking France not Luxembourg.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    What the fuck are you drinking
    lol

    Gin martinis, again. And large,

    But I’m serious. And if you argue my point, you have to offer me a French leader who would be better. There is no De Gaulle or Madame Thatcher waiting in the wings

    This time around they have Zemmour (interesting but mad), Le Pen (yawn, also a bit mad, still), some anonymous centre right woman, the terrible commie mayor of Paris, and various other also-rans

    Macron has proved he is competent and apparently quite honest. He may be REDACTED but he’;s not having embarrassing affairs on a scooter. He always looks smart with that nice crisp white shirt on his elfin figure (oddly like Sunak)

    I also think he’s better than Hollande (not hard) and better than Sarko (who promised much and had the much hotter wife but in the end was ineffectual)

    That’s all I’m saying. He’s pretty good by the notably poor standard of recent French presidents, so he will win again

    Pretty much the same here! Pink lemonade and gin, I’ve made a carafe of pink rabbits 🍸

    Oh you are right Leon, the options in that field don’t inspire. I’d vote for Amélie Dorendeu in a heart beat.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    IshmaelZ said:

    I think Gray is going to resolve this, actually. There just isn't any useful wiggle room

    There's a bloke in Herodotus I think who gets sentenced to death by a king so he says tell you what: give me a year's reprieve and I will teach your horse to sing, and you pardon me if I am successful. Someone says to him wtf is the point of that, do you seriously think a horse can sing? And the bloke says well, I get an extra year, and during that year I might die, the king might die, the horse might die, or the horse might learn to sing.

    Bojo's thinking on appointing Gray.

    Great story. In Johnson's case I'm going for the singing horse ending.
  • ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    The key thing will be the Janet and John bit. I would suggest something like this.

    'Coming as I do from the position of a neutral investigator, it is
    Unfortunately very obvious that even if the letter of the law wasn't broken,
    Numerous things were done that broke the spirit of it, this involves
    [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and
    So I am making a recommendation they all be disciplined for their actions.
    “This involves [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] and the tethered goat.”
    In which case, the goat will be the scapegoat.

    I'll get my goa... coat.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited January 2022

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    The resilience of Fianna Fail is most interesting in this poll although I suppose FG could get a bounce when Varadkar regains the Taoiseach position.

    I suppose the most likely outcome next time could be a Sinn Fein-FF coalition but we'll see.


    Also what has happened to the Social Democrats?!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Im Westen, nichts Neues?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Another big drop in England hospital figures
  • Neatest little self own from the last thread. No names, no pack drill.

    'no need for personal insults, you risk coming across as a prick'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Applicant said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING – Nusrat Ghani responds to Downing Street statement re Islamaphobia at top of Conservative Party.

    “When I told PM in June 2020 what had been said to me in the Government Whips’ Office I urged him to take it seriously as a Government matter and instigate an inquiry… /1

    “He wrote to me that he could not get involved and suggested I use the internal Conservative Party complaint process. This, as I had already pointed out, was very clearly not appropriate for something that happened on Government business…” /2

    “I do not even know if the words that were conveyed to me about what was said in reshuffle meetings at Downing Street were by members of the Conservative Party. Not a day has gone by without thinking about what I was told and wondering why I was in politics, while hoping…” /3

    “…for the Government to take this seriously. Those that have not had their identity + faith questioned cannot fully appreciate what it does to you. Now is not the time I would have chosen for this to come out and I have pursued every avenue and process I thought available…” /4

    “…to me, but many people have known what happened. In my statement yesterday I was careful not to mention any names or implicate the PM. All I have ever wanted was for his Govt to take this seriously, investigate properly and ensure no other colleague has to endure this." /5


    https://twitter.com/cazjwheeler/status/1485256790702968837

    NG is vice chair of 1922, and seriously enraged about Kabul doggie airlift
    This is "her truth", and therefore we must accept it at face value.

    A cynic would suggest that she's made it politically impossible for the new leader not to reappoint her, probably to a Cabinet role. That's sheer coincidence, of course.
    Alternative less cynical view, the Muslim Woman who brought down Boris Johnson - good luck to her 😔
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Also - finished Archive 81 on Netflix. It's bloody great. Highly recommended. It's their best new show in a while.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Which is actually why you like him. He defends the Enlightenment against the Iconoclasm. This is such a giant plus for you that it outweighs his intense Frenchness.

    The surprise has been ruined.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    alex_ said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Another big drop in England hospital figures
    I need to not scan read, I caught the first five words and though the men were playing cricket again today.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Old_Hand said:

    The talk of whips "blackmailing" Conservative back-benchers and its possible police investigation ignores section 21 of the Theft Act 1968. This defines "blackmail" as making "an unwarranted demand with menaces". Since when has a demand to be loyal to the Party whose money, manpower and manifesto secured your election in the first place been "unwarranted"?

    So a warranted demand with menaces is a ok?

    Besides, an expectation of general loyalty to the party is not unwarranted. But unwavering loyalty is not warranted, since MPs have a higher loyalty to their constituents to act in their best interests.

    What is talked about may not amount to blackmail, I am no lawyer. It certainly is not unusual. But there are still meant to be some lines in politics - a party might say there will be consequences for your career advancement, even for your ability to be selected as a candidate again. But consequences for your constituents? For your family if personal, non political matters are used to strong arm you?

    Nothing makes someone ungrateful faster than demaning they be grateful. And few things may stoke disloyalty more effectively than demanding robotic loyalty in service to a leader, leaders who do not last forever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    The Nus Ghani allegations are appalling, if not exactly surprising.

    Boris has completely screwed up the party for a generation, I suspect. The culture of bullying, nastiness, insouciance of the rules, arrogance, and incompetence will years to sort out, and I don't think voters are going to forgive the Tories for a long time. Eventually some future David Cameron may emerge and take the party through all the detoxification again, but it could be a long wait. And that's without even taking into account the multiple crises coming (NHS backlog, care for elderly crisis, cost of living, justice system backlogs, Brexit damage to the economy...). Some of those are admittedly not entirely the government's fault, but it will get the blame all the same.

    Good on those Tory MPs (including, if the reports are true, our very own member for Newcastle under Lyme) who have grasped the nettle. Getting rid of Boris is the indispensable first step for improving things, both for the party and, more importantly, the country, but it will be only the first step.

    I'm not so sure. I don't think people are seeing the Tory Party per se as the culprit but Boris Johnson. The analogy is with 1990 and when Major replaced Thatcher.

    Also, and this has gotten forgotten in the mists of time, Labour has a deep structural problem - the "Labour till I die" types in RW seats are dying off, in many places the Labour brand is toxic as it is associated with minority causes and the party is becoming an unstable coalition of urban, liberal professionals with socially conservative ethnic minority voters. The risk for Labour in the current situation is they fail to address the structural issues and believe they can ride to victory on Tory Sleaze. If anyone is going to profit from these disenchanted voters, it will be a restructured UKIP (which is why I think Farage was getting involving in the Djokavic case - it got him publicity a and association with a cause that has its adherents).
    You seem completely oblivious to everything Keir Starmer has said and done since he took over.
    Why don't you enlighten me (and us) instead of just making a statement without explanation?

    As far as I can see, Starmer has not done anything concrete except focused on the one issue that is of overwhelming importance to London Zone 1 wealthy Labour liberals like yourself, namely dealing with JC and the allegations of anti-Semitism. If he spent as much time on developing his policies for what he is going to do to address levelling up (and other issues) as he did on that topic, all of us might have a better understanding of what he stands for.
    I don't think you're the sharpest observer of Labour. Thing is, he's done the very opposite of trying to please people like me. He's altered the tone of the party with a view to attracting back the sort of voters turned off by the (imo largely false but still needs addressing) perception of Corbyn Labour as being unpatriotic, more animated by predominantly urban 'hot button' issues than the bread & butter, more interested in South America than the North of England, all of that stuff. As for policies, they are being developed and will be launched at the right time for policies - when the election comes.
    Tut Tur, @Kinablu, no need for personal insults, you risk coming across as a prick. In any event, I suspect I have a closer idea of what a RW voter may be thinking about than you do living in Gloucester Crescent.


    The simple fact is that , for all your glorification of SKS and his Grand Plan, he was getting little traction in the polls until BJ self-combusted. Which suggests that his messaging wasn't cutting through. The better question to ask - which I doubt you will - is what would JC have been doing in the polls given the current Tory problems. My guess is he actually would have been roughly similar - a loss of urban metro lefties like yourself but gaining some extra RW voters who would like his economic policies and general views on Brexit (minus the influence of a SKS)
    It is hard to say whether JC would have been similar. But my reason for thinking he wouldn't goes like this - Starmer may not have been cutting through until Boris combusted, but what he did manage was establish himself as unthreatening and reasonable, and so was in a good position to take advantage when Boris self combusted. Whereas with Corbyn we saw what happened when it was betweem him and Boris. Could he have turned that around? Perhaps. But unlike Starmer he was coming with so much of his own baggage that I don't think he could present himself as a plausible alternative when the wheels came of the Boris car, not when the public had already had their say on him.

    Policies I honestly don't think are very important, it is about leadership and the gut feel people have about your side, which is impossible to truly measure. But Corbyn repelled too many right from the start and, though he had some recoveries, could never escape that. Starmer had avoided repelling too many, and as Boris begins to repel Starmer has actually started pulling people instead - that's why the Labour score is up, not just the Tories down.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    I’ve mixed cocktails before March Through of the Monoliths. You are right.

    But the monoliths will go on. It’s PB Traditional!

    We can have Ukraine Proxy war monoliths - the number of UK supplied NR3A “Basingstokes” fired today and hit; the number of US supplied AOR7 “Pterodactyl” drones launched today.

    In Peaceful halcyon times we can have number of tractors in service and out of service in Lincolnshire v Yorkshire or something like that?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    MaxPB said:

    Also - finished Archive 81 on Netflix. It's bloody great. Highly recommended. It's their best new show in a while.

    Thanks. I need recommendations. Am about to finish “The Spanish Princess” (not as good as The White Princess or the White Queen, but still diverting)

    And on that note, off to my Sri Lankan hotel room, and a concluding glass of red. Later
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    That's a bit of a stonker as a post! About twelve shredded wheat (or wheetabix)!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Which is actually why you like him. He defends the Enlightenment against the Iconoclasm. This is such a giant plus for you that it outweighs his intense Frenchness.

    The surprise has been ruined.
    He defends the enlightenment against iconoclasm BECAUSE he intensely French. He believes strongly in his country and its values.
    Which are not so very unlike our own.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    I think Boris has underestimated the damage wokism is doing to western nations. Companies, governments and charities are paralysed in fear of criticising anything or anyone that might not be white, straight and male (with an actual cock and balls). It allows China to get away with genocide, it allows Middle Eastern countries to restart slave auctions and sex offending men into women's prisons because they say they're women.

    There's a lack of confidence across the west, yet Macron is someone who has successfully stood up to the nonsense. Boris could have done but he's useless, and as you say heroes die in the best stories, the ultimate or final sacrifice in order to save everyone else. Boris is past his time, his usefulness has passed now that Brexit is delivered, he needs to make the sacrifice in order to ensure it isn't unwound by a Labour/SNP government in 2024.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Just caught up with Fabricant's defence against Ghani's allegation. Talk about fanning the flames.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Just caught up with Fabricant's defence against Ghani's allegation. Talk about fanning the flames.

    That doesn't surprise me. When Michel Fabricant entered an intelligence contest against a bit of damp moss on the wall of Lichfield Cathedral, he came second.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    You are not quoting one completely new clearly Labor biased pollster, which has Labor far higher than other polls taken over the same period and Albanese even ahead as preferred PM unlike every other pollster which has Morrison ahead are you? You only need to read the commentary to see that
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited January 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Just caught up with Fabricant's defence against Ghani's allegation. Talk about fanning the flames.

    That doesn't surprise me. When Michel Fabricant entered an intelligence contest against a bit of damp moss on the wall of Lichfield Cathedral, he came second.
    Don't remind me, Betfair only let me bet pennies on that, really restricted my winnings.
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    Who would you have lead you into battle? I think it was Michael Howard of whom it was said that he would survive but his platoon probably wouldn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Controversial opinion: Macron is a pretty good French president: for the French. Best since Chirac?

    He’s a petulant, narcissistic, peculiarly epicene figure, who revels absurdly in his Anglophobia, but as French president in a very difficult situation, he’s done OK, if not well. His reforms are starting to bite, under the Covid surface, the French economy is showing vigour, he is a stalwart, patriotic defender of French interests (as we know to our pain), he steers the country clear of some pretty enormous rocks. His main failures have been AUKUS, strategically (but that wasn’t his fault), and his enthusiasm for vaxports (if you are a liberty minded French person) but many other leaders around the world have done far worse. He has maintained if not lifted French prestige in the world. He is now the de facto leader of the EU, with Merkel gone

    Given the alternatives, if I were French I’d give him another go.

    Macron will likely be narrowly re elected but if Pécresse is his opponent in the runoff I expect it to be very close. Zemmour and Le Pen voters will vote for Pécresse over Macron but Pécresse voters would vote for Macron over Le Pen
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    I think Boris has underestimated the damage wokism is doing to western nations. Companies, governments and charities are paralysed in fear of criticising anything or anyone that might not be white, straight and male (with an actual cock and balls). It allows China to get away with genocide, it allows Middle Eastern countries to restart slave auctions and sex offending men into women's prisons because they say they're women.

    There's a lack of confidence across the west, yet Macron is someone who has successfully stood up to the nonsense. Boris could have done but he's useless, and as you say heroes die in the best stories, the ultimate or final sacrifice in order to save everyone else. Boris is past his time, his usefulness has passed now that Brexit is delivered, he needs to make the sacrifice in order to ensure it isn't unwound by a Labour/SNP government in 2024.
    Wokism is almost by definition useless people being useless. They should throw themselves off isolated cliffs. Best lost.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    New Irish poll:

    Sinn Féin 34% (nc)
    Fianna Fáil 24% (+1)
    Fine Gael 22% (+2)
    Labour 4% (-1)
    Greens 3% (-2)
    Social Democrats 1% (-1)
    People Before Profit/Solidarity 2% (+1)
    Aontú 0 (nc)
    oth/ind 10% (+1)

    (Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times; 22 January)

    The resilience of Fianna Fail is most interesting in this poll although I suppose FG could get a bounce when Varadkar regains the Taoiseach position.

    I suppose the most likely outcome next time could be a Sinn Fein-FF coalition but we'll see.


    Also what has happened to the Social Democrats?!
    FF are more socially conservative than both FG and SF if not as economically rightwing as FG.

    They would only likely not continue their current coalition with FG therefore if SF took a more socially conservative stance
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    Basically, he's only ever prepared to put in a shift when it's in his immediate career interest, never when it's in ours. And even then, he knocks off mid-afternoon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    Basically, he's only ever prepared to put in a shift when it's in his immediate career interest, never when it's in ours. And even then, he knocks off mid-afternoon.
    Ah, don't say that, now I am seeing entirely too much of myself in him.
  • HYUFD said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    You are not quoting one completely new clearly Labor biased pollster, which has Labor far higher than other polls taken over the same period and Albanese even ahead as preferred PM unlike every other pollster which has Morrison ahead are you? You only need to read the commentary to see that
    I have my doubts Labor will win considering what happened to Bill Shorten although I don't follow Australian politics that closely.

    How does Albanese go down in Queensland for example (considering that the ALP got slaughtered in Queensland last time)?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Just caught up with Fabricant's defence against Ghani's allegation. Talk about fanning the flames.

    What else would you expect Fabricant to do? He was hardly going to help.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    edited January 2022

    Cancelled
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
  • Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    I think Boris has underestimated the damage wokism is doing to western nations. Companies, governments and charities are paralysed in fear of criticising anything or anyone that might not be white, straight and male (with an actual cock and balls). It allows China to get away with genocide, it allows Middle Eastern countries to restart slave auctions and sex offending men into women's prisons because they say they're women.

    There's a lack of confidence across the west, yet Macron is someone who has successfully stood up to the nonsense. Boris could have done but he's useless, and as you say heroes die in the best stories, the ultimate or final sacrifice in order to save everyone else. Boris is past his time, his usefulness has passed now that Brexit is delivered, he needs to make the sacrifice in order to ensure it isn't unwound by a Labour/SNP government in 2024.
    Wokism is almost by definition useless people being useless. They should throw themselves off isolated cliffs. Best lost.

    It's essentially authoritarian. It works when people cower before it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Just caught up with Fabricant's defence against Ghani's allegation. Talk about fanning the flames.

    That doesn't surprise me. When Michel Fabricant entered an intelligence contest against a bit of damp moss on the wall of Lichfield Cathedral, he came second.
    Michael Fabricant, with his so obviously ridiculous blonde wig and so often wilfully provocative and ridiculous opinions, strongly resembles a Harry Enfield character from the 1990's, such as the Double Take brothers. In fact he even actually physically slightly resembles him by face, rather than just by implication.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Roger said:


    Cancelled

    For wokery?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
    Indeed. Dutch anger - as angry as the Dutch ever get - is all over Twitter. It was an insanely poor decision. The entire nation locked down, for a month, over Christmas, for no good reason at all. Imagine the human suffering packaged in that decision. Leaders have been lynched for less
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    When was the last national poll ? Haven't seen one for a while.

    Survation, published Friday, fieldwork Monday.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-1)
    LDEM: 10% (+2)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Chgs. w/ Dec

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1484552509838565377
    Ah Ok, thanks. I'm guessing there'll be a quite a few more this week when Gray has finished her magnum opus, slaving away in her candlelit chambers.
    She is waiting on more whitewash to be delivered
    It may be the most comprehensive and critical report ever written.

    The problem however is the rules of engagement are such that Ms Gray hands the report over to Johnson for him to take his crayons and scissors to the text. We are thus left with a very succinct "Boris is a world beater" which looks very much like an exoneration to me.
    I don't see how Gray and people who have told her things would not go public if that happened.
    She reminds me of a headmistress. I'm looking forward to hearing her speak though she might not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    Equivalent of 275,000 in the UK.......

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    I think Boris has underestimated the damage wokism is doing to western nations. Companies, governments and charities are paralysed in fear of criticising anything or anyone that might not be white, straight and male (with an actual cock and balls). It allows China to get away with genocide, it allows Middle Eastern countries to restart slave auctions and sex offending men into women's prisons because they say they're women.

    There's a lack of confidence across the west, yet Macron is someone who has successfully stood up to the nonsense. Boris could have done but he's useless, and as you say heroes die in the best stories, the ultimate or final sacrifice in order to save everyone else. Boris is past his time, his usefulness has passed now that Brexit is delivered, he needs to make the sacrifice in order to ensure it isn't unwound by a Labour/SNP government in 2024.
    Wokism is almost by definition useless people being useless. They should throw themselves off isolated cliffs. Best lost.

    It's essentially authoritarian. It works when people cower before it.
    Top smoke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Not sure of "choose to ignore" quite captures it. The cabinet asked a load of detailed questions about modelling and assumptions and inputs and came to the conclusion that it was all far too pessimistic. Now they may have been driven to finally start asking some searching questions because the backbench were getting apoplectic but who cares. The right thing was done in the end.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
    Indeed. Dutch anger - as angry as the Dutch ever get - is all over Twitter. It was an insanely poor decision. The entire nation locked down, for a month, over Christmas, for no good reason at all. Imagine the human suffering packaged in that decision. Leaders have been lynched for less
    They weren't locked down. They had an 8 PM Curfew. My Brother's lived in Amsterdam since he was twenty
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
    Indeed. Dutch anger - as angry as the Dutch ever get - is all over Twitter. It was an insanely poor decision. The entire nation locked down, for a month, over Christmas, for no good reason at all. Imagine the human suffering packaged in that decision. Leaders have been lynched for less
    They weren't locked down. They had an 8 PM Curfew. My Brother's lived in Amsterdam since he was twenty
    God, you’re so fucking dumb


    THE HAGUE, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The Netherlands will go into a strict lockdown over the Christmas and New Year period to try to contain the highly- contagious Omicron coronavirus variant, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Saturday.

    All non-essential shops and services, including restaurants, hairdressers, museums and gyms will be closed from Sunday until Jan. 14. All schools will be shut until at least Jan. 9.

    "The Netherlands is again shutting down. That is unavoidable because of the fifth wave that is coming at us with the Omicron variant," Rutte told a televised news conference.


    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/netherlands-set-announce-strict-christmas-lockdown-media-2021-12-18/
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Not an expert, but I presume De Gaulle is still considered “good” and I’m not aware of any crook allegations. Do enlighten us.
    De Gaulle, like JFK, is vastly over-rated.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
    Indeed. Dutch anger - as angry as the Dutch ever get - is all over Twitter. It was an insanely poor decision. The entire nation locked down, for a month, over Christmas, for no good reason at all. Imagine the human suffering packaged in that decision. Leaders have been lynched for less
    They weren't locked down. They had an 8 PM Curfew. My Brother's lived in Amsterdam since he was twenty
    Why are you THIS stupid and ill-informed?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
    Indeed. Dutch anger - as angry as the Dutch ever get - is all over Twitter. It was an insanely poor decision. The entire nation locked down, for a month, over Christmas, for no good reason at all. Imagine the human suffering packaged in that decision. Leaders have been lynched for less
    They weren't locked down. They had an 8 PM Curfew. My Brother's lived in Amsterdam since he was twenty
    Why are you THIS stupid and ill-informed?
    And to be honest even if it was only an 8 pm curfew, that’s still astonishing outside of war. And in no way needed.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
    Indeed. Dutch anger - as angry as the Dutch ever get - is all over Twitter. It was an insanely poor decision. The entire nation locked down, for a month, over Christmas, for no good reason at all. Imagine the human suffering packaged in that decision. Leaders have been lynched for less
    They are not shy about rioting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xp2UTLGXMY&ab_channel=BBCNews

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vzp4qGRg3E

    etc
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    I think Boris has underestimated the damage wokism is doing to western nations. Companies, governments and charities are paralysed in fear of criticising anything or anyone that might not be white, straight and male (with an actual cock and balls). It allows China to get away with genocide, it allows Middle Eastern countries to restart slave auctions and sex offending men into women's prisons because they say they're women.

    There's a lack of confidence across the west, yet Macron is someone who has successfully stood up to the nonsense. Boris could have done but he's useless, and as you say heroes die in the best stories, the ultimate or final sacrifice in order to save everyone else. Boris is past his time, his usefulness has passed now that Brexit is delivered, he needs to make the sacrifice in order to ensure it isn't unwound by a Labour/SNP government in 2024.
    You and Leon just need to turn off GB News. You would both be so much more relaxed and realise woke is just a manufactured crock...
    My view would be Yes and No on that. There are specific issues with identity politics developing that do need attention particularly by the left, such as this useful article in the guardian today :

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/23/the-hounding-of-kate-clanchy-has-been-a-witch-hunt-without-mercy

    -and then there's also "woke" as the generic culture war nonsense regularly megaphoned by parts of the Tory party and press, covering a very wide range of liberalism, and serving the same reactionary purpose that the super-broad brush of "political correctness" did from the early '90s onward.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Just realised: the Covid situation has finally reached the point where 4pm has come and gone entirely unremarked. We've not even had Malmesbury's customary data splurge.

    Anyway, I've had a look so you don't have to. Summary: nothing unusual to report.

    Interesting stats abroad however. Holland reports 65,000 cases. By far their biggest total in a day

    All their terrible month of lockdown did was delay the peak by a couple of weeks, and maybe not even that, And at a truly brutal cost
    They've delayed their Omicron wave by about three weeks, at the cost of a hard lockdown that started before Christmas, and out of which they're being made to crawl painfully slowly because neither the scientists nor the government there can admit what an Olympic Gold medal winning cockup they've made of the entire situation.

    Rotten governance is not solely a British preserve, even if Johnson is distressingly adept at it. And at least our cabinet didn't entirely discount both the South African evidence and the questionable track record of the modellers and choose to turn the whole country back into an open prison. Again.
    To make the situation even more spicy - or bitter, if you are Dutch - apparently the Dutch government made their lockdown decision on the basis of Imperial College modelling. The same modelling that our government, in the end - and to their eternal credit, whatever their other sins - chose to ignore

    If I was a Dutchman I’d be rioting. Quite seriously
    Just been on the weekly family zoom call with my siblings. My sister who lives in Hengelo was saying how the Dutch modelers and policy-makers were now apologizing for making too pessimistic predictions about omicron.
    Indeed. Dutch anger - as angry as the Dutch ever get - is all over Twitter. It was an insanely poor decision. The entire nation locked down, for a month, over Christmas, for no good reason at all. Imagine the human suffering packaged in that decision. Leaders have been lynched for less
    They weren't locked down. They had an 8 PM Curfew. My Brother's lived in Amsterdam since he was twenty
    Why are you THIS stupid and ill-informed?
    And to be honest even if it was only an 8 pm curfew, that’s still astonishing outside of war. And in no way needed.
    But it’s not right. They had a strict lockdown. The schools closed. The pubs, restaurants, gyms, museum, galleries, concert halls - everything - was closed. Every cafe every bar every non essential shop. Shut. Not closing early. Shut

    The prime minister solemnly told his nation “The Netherlands is again shutting down”. For 4 weeks.

    If that isn’t a fucking lockdown what is? Roger is a moron and I for one hope he continues to post every day because it is hilarious

    “My brother has lived in Amsterdam since he was 20”

    Roger, your brother has moved to Uruguay to live in a sex triangle with an otter and a coal miner he’s just too embarrassed to tell his idiot brother so he makes up shit about Holland
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    What makes Nato braindead? There's hardly anything new about military alliances throughout history. Rest assured if we don't wish to form such alliances some of our 'rivals' will. Does the alliance need to be re-thought? Probably. It's in its eighth decade after all. The main issue is that the US is doing the heavy lifting of European security. There is no sensible reason why this should be. The other problem is the 'attack on one is an attack on all' of article 5. Obviously Greece and Turkey aren't the best of friends and are we saying we would immediately jump to support Mr Erdogan in any military adventure he might wish to embark upon? So it could be reinvented in a looser format but I'm wary of those who simply wish to dismantle it.

    Europe could take complete responsibility for its security with its own common defence partnership instead. I would hope that common interests in liberty, democracy, the rule of law and self determination would see a natural alliance form with North America that would look something like... Nato.

    But maybe that is not what Macron wants? Perhaps he sees a world of competing power blocks like the US, China, India, Russia and Europe is simply another actor in such a world. Alliances are for nothing more than leveraging one's interests or playing other superpowers off against each other. Getting the English speakers out of European security, marginalising the views of East Europeans and restoring the 'brain' as it were of European security around a Franco-German axis. Perhaps such an alliance would be less concerned about Russian incursions in Ukraine or Belarus, they might even be prepared to appease Russia in the Baltics rather than defend 'interests' that are more costly than they are worth. It's an alternative view of European security. But not the only plausible one and give the current divisions in attitude to Ukraine it isn't clear that the new 'central powers' in Paris and Berlin would prevail.

  • Absolute shower of shite, they really hate the North.

    Grant Shapps had been due in Manchester tom as part of a planned rail/HS2 visit, but the Transport Sec apparently pulled out on Friday. His office say GS's due at Covid-O meeting but insiders point out he's in fact helping the PM get MPs onside before Sue Gray reports

    Chaos..


    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1485298861325357058
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    File under the Scottish section of “oh dear. What a shame, Etc”


    “It’s really saddening to see unionists and their press sneering at the pitiful attendance at an independence march. 2 years ago tens of thousands marched now only a few hundred turned out. It is almost criminal what the leadership of AUOB have done to depress numbers like this.”


    https://twitter.com/petewishart/status/1484947632053272582?s=21


    The SNP will never call another Indy vote. It will forever recede into the Hebridean mist. Tantalisingly close, yet perpetually unreachable, like those grapes in that story

    Different organizations, actually. Also the march is distinctly off topic as being specifically an anti-BJ march. Better things to do in the time of covid, especially as it's on a par with marching to say that 'kittens are cute' or 'Rangers fans shit in woods'.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19867660.one-banner-glasgow-hundreds-protest-boris-johnson/

    But all the oomph has gone out of Indy. It is now *something desirable at some time in the future* - no longer an urgent political imperative. Moreover, it doesn’t have to be imperative, for the SNP, they still reign supreme at Holyrood, with all the perks of power and almost zero hassle. Everything bad can be blamed on London

    The fact the pro-Indy factions are now squabbling, bitterly, is a classic symptom of a stagnant cause

    I guess at some point the more militant YESSERS will turn on Sturgeon, or her successor, for their failure to secure a vote, but she is awfully good at fending them off…
    Miibes aye, mibbes naw, but that march is not evidence either way, was all I was pointing out. And covid is still casting its shadow more generally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    What makes Nato braindead? There's hardly anything new about military alliances throughout history. Rest assured if we don't wish to form such alliances some of our 'rivals' will. Does the alliance need to be re-thought? Probably. It's in its eighth decade after all. The main issue is that the US is doing the heavy lifting of European security. There is no sensible reason why this should be. The other problem is the 'attack on one is an attack on all' of article 5. Obviously Greece and Turkey aren't the best of friends and are we saying we would immediately jump to support Mr Erdogan in any military adventure he might wish to embark upon? So it could be reinvented in a looser format but I'm wary of those who simply wish to dismantle it.

    Europe could take complete responsibility for its security with its own common defence partnership instead. I would hope that common interests in liberty, democracy, the rule of law and self determination would see a natural alliance form with North America that would look something like... Nato.

    But maybe that is not what Macron wants? Perhaps he sees a world of competing power blocks like the US, China, India, Russia and Europe is simply another actor in such a world. Alliances are for nothing more than leveraging one's interests or playing other superpowers off against each other. Getting the English speakers out of European security, marginalising the views of East Europeans and restoring the 'brain' as it were of European security around a Franco-German axis. Perhaps such an alliance would be less concerned about Russian incursions in Ukraine or Belarus, they might even be prepared to appease Russia in the Baltics rather than defend 'interests' that are more costly than they are worth. It's an alternative view of European security. But not the only plausible one and give the current divisions in attitude to Ukraine it isn't clear that the new 'central powers' in Paris and Berlin would prevail.

    France needs Turkey and the UK for any plausible military alliance in Europe, that means NATO. Germany has smaller armed forces than both and an even smaller navy than Poland
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    What makes Nato braindead? There's hardly anything new about military alliances throughout history. Rest assured if we don't wish to form such alliances some of our 'rivals' will. Does the alliance need to be re-thought? Probably. It's in its eighth decade after all. The main issue is that the US is doing the heavy lifting of European security. There is no sensible reason why this should be. The other problem is the 'attack on one is an attack on all' of article 5. Obviously Greece and Turkey aren't the best of friends and are we saying we would immediately jump to support Mr Erdogan in any military adventure he might wish to embark upon? So it could be reinvented in a looser format but I'm wary of those who simply wish to dismantle it.

    Europe could take complete responsibility for its security with its own common defence partnership instead. I would hope that common interests in liberty, democracy, the rule of law and self determination would see a natural alliance form with North America that would look something like... Nato.

    But maybe that is not what Macron wants? Perhaps he sees a world of competing power blocks like the US, China, India, Russia and Europe is simply another actor in such a world. Alliances are for nothing more than leveraging one's interests or playing other superpowers off against each other. Getting the English speakers out of European security, marginalising the views of East Europeans and restoring the 'brain' as it were of European security around a Franco-German axis. Perhaps such an alliance would be less concerned about Russian incursions in Ukraine or Belarus, they might even be prepared to appease Russia in the Baltics rather than defend 'interests' that are more costly than they are worth. It's an alternative view of European security. But not the only plausible one and give the current divisions in attitude to Ukraine it isn't clear that the new 'central powers' in Paris and Berlin would prevail.

    NATO has already dealt with a conflict *between* members - Greece and Turkey have an.... interesting relationship.

    It's been remarkably flexible over the years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    You are not quoting one completely new clearly Labor biased pollster, which has Labor far higher than other polls taken over the same period and Albanese even ahead as preferred PM unlike every other pollster which has Morrison ahead are you? You only need to read the commentary to see that
    I have my doubts Labor will win considering what happened to Bill Shorten although I don't follow Australian politics that closely.

    How does Albanese go down in Queensland for example (considering that the ALP got slaughtered in Queensland last time)?
    He is more populist left than Shorten, he might go down a bit better than he did in Queensland but will go down worse in my view in Victoria and NSW.

    Albanese is basically another Mark Latham, despite early Latham poll leads Howard beat Latham easily enough in 2004
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