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ANALYSING LABOUR-LIB DEM TACTICAL VOTING SINCE 1983 – politicalbetting.com

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  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Telegraph reporting tonight that Downing Street police have given damning testimony to Sue Gray’s inquiry into parties.

    We reported in Dec that an officer was present in No 10 the night of the Christmas party on Dec 18th 2020 who could have seen/heard it.
    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485371009939165184/photo/1

    These Islamaphobia claims knock the Corbyn's anti Semitism ones into insignificance. The Tories are in very deep shit. Deservedly
    Was Corbyn ever removed as Labour leader for anti Semitism allegations? No he led Labour at 2 general elections, only stepping down after a landslide defeat in the second
    Exactly. No one ever suggested Jews were denied advancement under Corbyn on account of their faith. That would have been a very dark day indeed. But that's exactly what the Tories are being accused of.
    There was not a single Jew in Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet. Javid is in the Cabinet and of Muslim heritage
    Ed Miliband is as Jewish as Javid is Muslim.
    Which is to say, neither are believers. I see what you're doing here, and it's not right.
    Ed Miliband is in the Shadow Cabinet now, he was not at the 2019 general election
    I stand corrected. I could have sworn he was in the shadow cabinet under Corbyn but I was wrong.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Officers deployed to guard Downing Street would have a detailed knowledge of the comings and goings at Number 10 and would therefore be in a position to corroborate some of the most damning allegations that have emerged in recent weeks, such as whether a suitcase of alcohol was brought in to one event on the eve of the Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral.

    They may also have been in a position to comment on the wider drinking culture in Downing Street during lockdown, and whether they issued any warnings to party attendees or officials.

    Amid reports that some Number 10 staffers have been “circling the wagons” by holding back information from the Gray inquiry, and even deleting incriminating photographs and WhatsApp messages, the police officers are likely to be seen as impartial observers.

    While police officers cannot be compelled to speak to Ms Gray – unlike Downing St staff – it is understood they were “only too willing” to co-operate.

    One source said on Sunday night: “Met officers have spoken to Sue Gray now, as you would expect, and have been able to provide a lot of information.”

    Asked how significant the material they had disclosed was, the source added: “Put it this way, if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister by the end of the week, I’d be very surprised.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/23/number-10-police-questioned-sue-gray-downing-street-parties/

    Would it be impolite to ask what all these police officers were doing when all this alleged breaking of Covid rules was happening? Did they somehow think it was not their job to enforce the rules as they did with everyone else?

    Also, neither the police nor those working on the investigation should be making statements like this. I'm no defender of Boris. Or the police, come to that. But police officers or investigators expressing views on the political consequences of allegedly unlawful actions by politicians worries me a bit. The police did not exactly cover themselves in glory over the Andrew Mitchell story. It's no better if investigators do it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Through all the (rightful) criticism of Germany, the West really doesn’t have many options as far as I can see.

    The US is not terribly interested. If Russia decide to dismember Ukraine, they will.

    Yes, it isn't worth starting WW3 over, and everyone West of the Carpathians knows that.
    Do you think Poland was worth starting WW2 over?
    Bet the Poles were really chuffed about it in 1945.
    They are. They count themselves as war victors, but ended up being sold down the river to Stalin. (Not that we had much option).
    Operation was a success but the patient died. I doubt the Poles were as thrilled as you think

    We had just won WW2 with Nazi Germany, we were not then immediately going to start WW3 with Stalin's Russia by going into Eastern Europe
    That's a negative, sir. Stalin's Russia had just won ww2 with Nazi Germany.
    I think the best version of that I have heard was:

    The British Empire won WWII by giving the world time
    The US won WWII by building the materiel
    The USSR won WWII by spilling blood
    Attributed to Stalin, I don't know whether rightly or not
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Telegraph reporting tonight that Downing Street police have given damning testimony to Sue Gray’s inquiry into parties.

    We reported in Dec that an officer was present in No 10 the night of the Christmas party on Dec 18th 2020 who could have seen/heard it.
    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485371009939165184/photo/1

    These Islamaphobia claims knock the Corbyn's anti Semitism ones into insignificance. The Tories are in very deep shit. Deservedly
    You think that there are perspectives from which anti semitism is insignificant?

    Course there are, only kidding. The posts to which you are replying have nothing to do with Islam that I can see, though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I love how quickly movies got made back in the day, even considering less post production effects etc.
    • Dr No 1963
    • From Russia With Love 1964
    • Goldfiner 1964
    • Thunderball 1965
    • Casino Royale 1967 (which I don't remember but must have been shit, as it had the largest budget but made 100m less than the previous movie)
    • You Only Live Twice 1967
    https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/James-Bond#tab=summary
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Telegraph reporting tonight that Downing Street police have given damning testimony to Sue Gray’s inquiry into parties.

    We reported in Dec that an officer was present in No 10 the night of the Christmas party on Dec 18th 2020 who could have seen/heard it.
    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-14/did-an-alarm-alert-police-to-a-downing-street-christmas-party https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485371009939165184/photo/1

    These Islamaphobia claims knock the Corbyn's anti Semitism ones into insignificance. The Tories are in very deep shit. Deservedly
    Maybe, but currently at the he said, she said stage.
    And, as to be expected, lots of people are automatically assuming that both what was said is true and that the entirety of the conversation or conversations have been revealed and that the correct interpretation of what was meant is as described by one party to those conversations.

    It's all a bit Red Queen isn't it.

    (And no I do not downplay anti-Muslim prejudice. I deplore it.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Cyclefree said:

    Officers deployed to guard Downing Street would have a detailed knowledge of the comings and goings at Number 10 and would therefore be in a position to corroborate some of the most damning allegations that have emerged in recent weeks, such as whether a suitcase of alcohol was brought in to one event on the eve of the Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral.

    They may also have been in a position to comment on the wider drinking culture in Downing Street during lockdown, and whether they issued any warnings to party attendees or officials.

    Amid reports that some Number 10 staffers have been “circling the wagons” by holding back information from the Gray inquiry, and even deleting incriminating photographs and WhatsApp messages, the police officers are likely to be seen as impartial observers.

    While police officers cannot be compelled to speak to Ms Gray – unlike Downing St staff – it is understood they were “only too willing” to co-operate.

    One source said on Sunday night: “Met officers have spoken to Sue Gray now, as you would expect, and have been able to provide a lot of information.”

    Asked how significant the material they had disclosed was, the source added: “Put it this way, if Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister by the end of the week, I’d be very surprised.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/23/number-10-police-questioned-sue-gray-downing-street-parties/

    Would it be impolite to ask what all these police officers were doing when all this alleged breaking of Covid rules was happening? Did they somehow think it was not their job to enforce the rules as they did with everyone else?

    Also, neither the police nor those working on the investigation should be making statements like this. I'm no defender of Boris. Or the police, come to that. But police officers or investigators expressing views on the political consequences of allegedly unlawful actions by politicians worries me a bit. The police did not exactly cover themselves in glory over the Andrew Mitchell story. It's no better if investigators do it.
    It seems to me, Unlike some of you on here I have more faith in the police, as an organisation and collection of in the main decent individuals. So in their defence, Is a tad more, say “politically” difficult for individual officers to enforce obvious party rule breaking at the Downing Street complex than at 21 University Terrace?

    But they should have asked up the chain though? How long have senior police been sitting on the knowledge there was industrial partying, and did they ever think of acting on it?

    No one’s coming out of this very well? 🙁
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Through all the (rightful) criticism of Germany, the West really doesn’t have many options as far as I can see.

    The US is not terribly interested. If Russia decide to dismember Ukraine, they will.

    Yes, it isn't worth starting WW3 over, and everyone West of the Carpathians knows that.
    Do you think Poland was worth starting WW2 over?
    Bet the Poles were really chuffed about it in 1945.
    They are. They count themselves as war victors, but ended up being sold down the river to Stalin. (Not that we had much option).
    Operation was a success but the patient died. I doubt the Poles were as thrilled as you think

    https://www.nytimes.com/1973/08/05/archives/churchill-stalin-made-polish-deal.html
    To be fair, Churchill did ask the military to prepare a War Plan to take back Eastern Europe.

    But apparently people were a bit cold on the idea of following up WWII with WWIII, without a tea break.
    It does leap up from the page appears the Yanks happy to stand back and let the communists take Europe and install their local communists as puppet governments! Though, also true, London stood back and let this happen too, as well as not aiding people slaughtered in uprisings 😢
    Indeed - something that was rapidly regretted.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Jungle etc
    Are you familiar with the James Barr Lords of the Desert? Where instead of having a special relationship with US, they were at war with our foreign policy and Empire and we were battling back. “London feared the Chinese Nationalists backed by the US were poised to seize Hong Kong”. I’ve never heard that before. There was such massive manoeuvrings going on in 45 Malmesbury!

    The first James Barr book, a line in the sand, is good too, Roald Dahl blows up the French airfield whilst french airmen are having a picnic with ladies 😂
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048

    Johnson's strategy according to The Times, I wonder, if he'll send Michael Ellis again?

    Downing Street is drawing up plans to “own the narrative” of Gray’s report, The Times has been told. Members of Johnson’s team have approached Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, to ask whether Johnson could go to the dispatch box almost immediately after Gray delivers her findings to address MPs, regardless of what business is planned for the Commons at that time.

    Johnson’s team is especially keen for him to speak on the same day as the findings are published if the report is critical. “If it’s leaning towards a difficult finding then you don’t want an overnight period for a narrative to build,” a minister said.

    One rather wishes that they put this much effort into the strategy of governing the country.
  • kle4 said:

    I love how quickly movies got made back in the day, even considering less post production effects etc.

    • Dr No 1963
    • From Russia With Love 1964
    • Goldfiner 1964
    • Thunderball 1965
    • Casino Royale 1967 (which I don't remember but must have been shit, as it had the largest budget but made 100m less than the previous movie)
    • You Only Live Twice 1967
    https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/James-Bond#tab=summary
    Casino Royale (1967) was actually a spoof.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,100
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    With Morrison playing such a blinder over Djokovic - is it trolling for me to ask, HY please explain? 🙂

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election

    Oh you already answered in old thread. I’ll stop trolling then.

    The French Elections the most important one.

    Unless there’s a Tory leader election. 🙂
    The French will probably again mak wrong call.
    Whoever wins, they will be French 💁‍♀️
    Who was the last French president who was (a) not a crook and (b) any actual good? Am I being harsh in suggesting pretty much the only one who ticks both columns is Adolphe Thiers?
    Not an expert, but I presume De Gaulle is still considered “good” and I’m not aware of any crook allegations. Do enlighten us.
    You mean apart from taking power in a coup?
    I think "arrogant fool" is probably fair for de Gaulle. Based on what I have read of him - mainly tangentially.

    If you want to look for criminal stuff for him, as opposed to corruption, then the various wars to protect the rump French Empire may be one place.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,100
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Final point

    Macron is also surprisingly firm in the Culture Wars. When the statues started falling, he gave a speech to the French people saying, Very Sternly, “not a single statue in the French Republic will fall, they are our patrimony”

    And, as far as I know - I am happy to be corrected - his promise has been fulfilled

    Yes, both @Casino_Royale and I have made that point and if it wasn't for his general obnoxiousness I'd be pretty happy with him as PM here tbh. I'd rate him far ahead of Boris on economic and cultural issues. He's got the ability and confidence to say "shut the fuck up" to whining wokists.

    I also think he's got an innate understanding of how wokism is making the west weak. China terms it as white liberalism, but essentially it is weakness.
    Boris has the right instincts on Woke but is too emotionally needy and weirdly feeble to follow through. I have finally - belatedly - realised this. He’s terrifically bright and often sees the bigger picture but he hasn’t got the backbone to Really Do Anything. Apart from Brexit, which he won and then concluded with his bravado. But bravado is not enough for a long career at the top

    Boris is like some hero on a battlefield who takes on the Tiger tanks armed only with his derring-do and a sense of destiny, and maybe some small grenades. But heroes are meant to die, quite soon after their acts, if not during. As Greek myth tells us.

    Mythologically and politically he is doomed

    In the medium term someone like Macron is preferable. Macron also has an astute vision of the future, as you say. His prescient prediction that “NATO is brain dead” is perhaps about to be tested. I fear it will be proved correct
    I think Boris has underestimated the damage wokism is doing to western nations. Companies, governments and charities are paralysed in fear of criticising anything or anyone that might not be white, straight and male (with an actual cock and balls). It allows China to get away with genocide, it allows Middle Eastern countries to restart slave auctions and sex offending men into women's prisons because they say they're women.

    There's a lack of confidence across the west, yet Macron is someone who has successfully stood up to the nonsense. Boris could have done but he's useless, and as you say heroes die in the best stories, the ultimate or final sacrifice in order to save everyone else. Boris is past his time, his usefulness has passed now that Brexit is delivered, he needs to make the sacrifice in order to ensure it isn't unwound by a Labour/SNP government in 2024.
    You and Leon just need to turn off GB News. You would both be so much more relaxed and realise woke is just a manufactured crock...
    They sound like two great aunts at a wedding whispering in a corner "What does she think she's come as?"
    Do we have any current information on how GB news is doing?
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited January 2022
    “The US has ordered the relatives of its embassy staff in Ukraine to leave amid rising tension in the region.

    The State Department also warned people not to travel to Ukraine and Russia due to the ongoing tension and "potential for harassment against US citizens".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60106416

    Biden is seriously scarred by the Afghanistan shambles. I think analysts are wrong to read too much into there being specific intel.

    I think the chance of Russia fully invading Ukraine is remote, and the chance of significant Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine is much lower than the media hysteria would lead us to believe.

    It’s in everyone’s interests to hype this up.

    Calm down, people.
This discussion has been closed.