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Will Boris Johnson announce his resignation before the end of January? – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
    Most obviously perhaps, diversion of police resources that could be doing something else.

    There's also the question of extent, and whether he wants more than actual working Royals.
    Nah, he clearly needs protection from kidnap and terrorism threats. Much better use of police time than spending £20m on Assange or whatever it was.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said the lockdown ultras dismissing South African data has a huge element of "well they're just a bunch of spear chucking primitives" about it. Even among the scientists there was so much scepticism around it all that wouldn't have been the case had the data come from France or the US.

    The denial of their Delta to Omicron comparison showing that Omicron was less deadly was probably the worst moment of the Omicron wave.

    There was an actual post on here from @Big_G_NorthWales at the time in which I said that the SA scientists had shown it to be mild and he actually replied with words to the effect of “well they are not our/British scientists”. I picked him up on it at the time.

    That said, I don’t mean to single Big G out. His post was merely representative of the pervading colonial attitudes on PB at the time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    The idea of anyone either having fun or being allowed to enjoy themselves in Mrs May's government is indeed a bit of a stretch. And did it make them any more competent?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Boris is going nowhere.

    As I said.

    But if he does this week, what about your credibility? Surely there is so much uncertainty this weekend, none of us can be so sure what happens next couple of days?

    The only thing we can be sure about is wether or not the letters are in tomorrow, the Assailant will still release something to keep up momentum Tuesday evening.

    What does nowhere mean anyway, you reckon he is in for 10 years? What is your take on exit date?
    I’m making a prediction that he’ll not go in the near term. I could be wrong. I often am.

    But it doesn’t appear that the Tory Party have the cojones to get rid of him.
    Thanks.

    I had to look up cojones, my initial thought was something in find in a finger buffet with a sweet chilli dip.
    Could well be tapas in Spain for all I know. They are big on sweetbreads in the Continent.
    I think customarily served to the victorious matador.
    One wonders what happens when the matador loses. Just as well bulls are vegans.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Speak for yourself. I’m a Pict.
    Whoops - meant to say Germanic. Not trying to pretend I'm a Royal or my dad was a POW.
    I'm partly Pict anyway too ...
    Nothing wrong with Germans. Her Majesty is a fine woman. How many PM’s will have served her when Boris is booted out? Must be well into double figures.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533

    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

    Binned. Though I agree with you it was a waste of time and money in the first place.
    Thanks for your reply, Richard. I have been met with a wall of silence from most other PBers!
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour have a lead of 43% - 33% in "All seats Labour has lost since 2005" in this Opinium poll.

    Given that would include 40 seats in Scotland where they are now pretty much nowhere, that must mean a huge lead in England.
    Spot on.

    The details in these polls are much, much worse for the Conservatives than the headline figures.
    I’ve seen it suggested - including here - that it is middle class voters in the south who are the most upset with the PM’s goings on.

    The polling detail suggests the opposite. Perhaps those who have had the tougher lockdown experience are more angry than the middle class office workers sipping their Chardonnay from their home offices?
    Agreed. Con VI in the SE (outwith London) has been tremendous. They are building up support where they really don’t need it. The North is totally gone. The key is the Midlands: Labour have a clear lead for now, but swingback still feasible.
    Labour seem to be so far ahead in the North of England that a large number of Redwall Mps look doomed. There'd need to be an enormous swing back for the Tories to have a hope of holding Blyth Valley or Leigh, for instance.
    In the absence of proper, full-sample regional and/or redwall polling (there have been very few) then our only option is to keep a very close eye on the North and the Midlands sun-samples. In this respect YouGov is by far the market leader, as they are the only polling firm to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.
    What you can pick up on looking at the latest poll is complete apathy

    For the North 15% won't vote, 22% don't know Tories on 17%, labour 30%

    For the midlands 12% won't vote, 17% don't know Tories on 23% Labour 28%

    From https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/48dfh8v55q/TheTimes_VI_220113_W.pdf

    What you can see is that Tories votes are going down and won't vote is going up, but there is a distinct move to Labour from the Lib Dems / Greens in winnable Labour seats.
    I don't think 'Don't Know' = Apathy. I think it means what it says. Such as 'I voted Tory last time but I don't know if I will again."
    It’s the not voting that = apathy, those figures are increasing
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions last Christmas were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    Morning, @DavidL.

    I don't wholly agree - what helped before Christmas was the voluntary action taken by many people to eschew pre-Christmas socialising in exchange for being able to have a Christmas at home with loved ones and/or family.

    The hospitality industry suffered because those who were risk averse but wanted to see their families decided the work "do", the pre-Christmas social wasn't worth the risk.

    There have been a lot of deaths reported this week and the argument as to whether some or all were directly attributable to the virus will rage on - hopefully we're through the worst but I do suspect (and it's no more than that) the generational intermixing at Christmas might have had deleterious effects.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - test and trace failed because people couldn't or wouldn't do it. It wasn't in theory a bad idea as a mechanism for trying to control virus outbreaks but impractical.

    I'd also argue we've been very lucky that Omicron wasn't a more severe strain of the virus - had it, for example, had the severity of Delta or even the original strain we'd have been in a lot worse position even with vaccination.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,819

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    I'm a bit reluctant to go back into the argument on its merits, since none of us will affect the outcome and we've debated it to death. Mostly I was just reporting my impression of what most people in my area think. But since you ask, I would think that wfh does reduce transmission, which is already ridiculously high, and that's helping to flatten the curve. Masks in shops? Probably, a bit. Is it a big deal?

    As for wfh being a huge barrier to trade, that depends on the business. There isn't an instruction to wfh regardless, merely to wfh if it's reasonably practical. I spend my days writing submissions to the Government, studying current research, giving remote interviews and leading work by colleagues to plan future campaigns. I could do all that just as well from anywhere, so I'm happy to comply with the instruction to do it from home. If I was running a shop, it would clearly be impractical and I wouldn't do it. It seems a reasonable rule for now though when the infection level comes down it should be replaced by merely a recommendation.

    But I'll leave it there.
    I would think that wfh does reduce transmission, which is already ridiculously high

    You still have the mentality of 'if we only have some more restrictions then covid will go away'.

    And you seem willing for other people to live under these restrictions forever in the hope of achieving that.

    Whereas the other view is that we should aim to return to the pre covid world and the way for that is for people to come into contact with the virus with both multiple vaccinations and a weaker variant allowing that to be done safely.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809

    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

    Relaxed about it either way for now, which I suspect may be a common view, hence the lack of replies. I'd expect it is removed at the next renewal date.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317
    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    Seems perfectly reasonable if he is willing to pay, either that or licence his own armed security.

    I think he does need armed security, and if not permitted in the UK then it is obvious why he needs to live in America.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

    Binned. Though I agree with you it was a waste of time and money in the first place.
    Thanks for your reply, Richard. I have been met with a wall of silence from most other PBers!
    I know what I would do RE: Plan B

    I'd follow the data.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Swedish is fantastic at creating compound words. Once you get the hang of it you can be quite creative. A typical example:

    Flaggstångsknopp : the wee decorative bit at the top of a flagpole.

    But the record is apparently:

    Nordvästersjökustartilleriflygspaningssimulatoranläggningsmaterielunderhållsuppföljningssystemdiskussionsinläggsförberedelsearbete - 131 letters.
    Swedes have always been the Germans of the North...😇
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,640

    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said the lockdown ultras dismissing South African data has a huge element of "well they're just a bunch of spear chucking primitives" about it. Even among the scientists there was so much scepticism around it all that wouldn't have been the case had the data come from France or the US.

    The denial of their Delta to Omicron comparison showing that Omicron was less deadly was probably the worst moment of the Omicron wave.

    There was an actual post on here from @Big_G_NorthWales at the time in which I said that the SA scientists had shown it to be mild and he actually replied with words to the effect of “well they are not our/British scientists”. I picked him up on it at the time.

    That said, I don’t mean to single Big G out. His post was merely representative of the pervading colonial attitudes on PB at the time.
    Not just Big_G or just on PB. Even among the government scientists there was really so much scepticism about the SA data. Do we really think Chris Whitty would have gone on TV to warn against making conclusions for the UK based on US data or French data? Of course not, that it was from SA is why they were so eager to dismiss it and actually disbelieve our own data which confirmed that Omicron was a paper tiger for at least a couple of weeks "surely those spear chucking primitives weren't right all along, our data must be incorrect".
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
    I had one placed , that meant I cleared my feet but not rich yet.
    Hope the Scots, Irish and Welsh around here are all in good form this fine morning! Certain other PBers are a bit down in the dumps.
    I think Scot Tories have done ok out of this, tbh. Could've been a lot worse. Have to grudgingly accept that Ross neutralised the threat with impeccable timing.

    Labour remain incredibly weak north of the border. I had high hopes for Sarwar...
    I like both Ross and Sarwar. I think they are both doing reasonably well in truly appalling circumstances for their respective parties. Ross played an absolute blinder this week. Kudos! Sarwar has been strangely invisible for quite a long time now. Huge, huge mistake for SLab to rely too heavily on Big Jackie.

    I’m beginning to think the SCons might do surprisingly well in May, due to their unity and backbone. SLDs ditto. I suspect Sarwar is going to have some explaining to do after the polling stations close.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777
    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869

    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on here.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    These kinds of posts are peak tedium. We’re all here, except for isam who had a run in with the ban hammer.
    I don't think they're 'peak tedium.' Everyone NOW thinks Johnson is a charlatan and a despicable liar. Many of us have been of that opinion for years and couldn't believe that the once proud Tory party would elect him

    'Peak tedium' are the repetitive posts from the likes of me saying 'I TOLD YOU SO'. More interesting are explanations from people like you telling the rest of us why you couldn't see what was obvious and in plain sight.
    I’m with you Roger. The entire erstwhile Boris fan club on here owes us an explanation, and an apology.
    Not for me. Virtually all the PB right of centre just want Boris done now, Sunak in and the fight back begin, it’s the left who are beginning to sound moody and catty by the prospect. I’m not for rubbing peoples noses in it.

    Sunak v Starmer v Davey is at least back to proper politics where votes and seats are fought for and deservedly won or lost as it should be, on the issues and policies. Elections are stronger for that.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,411
    edited January 16
    DavidL said:

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    The idea of anyone either having fun or being allowed to enjoy themselves in Mrs May's government is indeed a bit of a stretch. And did it make them any more competent?
    At least they didn't funnel off billions of pounds' worth of unmonitored contracts to personal contacts. I was no fan of Theresa May, but she was never corruptible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions last Christmas were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    Morning, @DavidL.

    I don't wholly agree - what helped before Christmas was the voluntary action taken by many people to eschew pre-Christmas socialising in exchange for being able to have a Christmas at home with loved ones and/or family.

    The hospitality industry suffered because those who were risk averse but wanted to see their families decided the work "do", the pre-Christmas social wasn't worth the risk.

    There have been a lot of deaths reported this week and the argument as to whether some or all were directly attributable to the virus will rage on - hopefully we're through the worst but I do suspect (and it's no more than that) the generational intermixing at Christmas might have had deleterious effects.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - test and trace failed because people couldn't or wouldn't do it. It wasn't in theory a bad idea as a mechanism for trying to control virus outbreaks but impractical.

    I'd also argue we've been very lucky that Omicron wasn't a more severe strain of the virus - had it, for example, had the severity of Delta or even the original strain we'd have been in a lot worse position even with vaccination.
    Sure, but there are two points there. Unlike many other governments, not least in Scotland, the UK government was always more open to people using their own judgment and assessing risk by reference to their personal circumstances. Their clear reluctance to play nanny was, in my view, a commendable instinct.

    Secondly, had Omicron been much more dangerous that would have been clear from the SA data. And we would indeed have been in desperate trouble, no matter what policies were followed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,640
    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    I don't think they can, the licence fee collection agency is not part of the BBC and the BBC doesn't have access to the data.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,929
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Poor Novax what a shame!

    I actually do feel for him. He's been mistreated here. I'm still a fan and I hope he goes on to smash all the records and end the GOAT conversation. But it's a reasonable decision by Australia. The error was granting him a visa in the first place.
    His errors are being a consistently anti-vax @sshat, not getting vaccinated, going around spreading the virus after he's got a positive result, and lying on immigration forms.

    Given that, how do you think he's been 'mistreated'?

    I feel zero sympathy for him. Like Johnson, his mistakes are all his own and unforced.
    Told he could play. Given a visa. Goes. Visa is cancelled on arrival with no due process. Held for hours at airport. Detained in a shitty hostel. Goes to court, wins and gets visa back because of the aforesaid no due process. Back in the draw. Starts prep for the tourny. Then at the 11th hour the govt cancels his visa again in order to escape the hole they themselves have dug with their incompetence.

    This is surely enough to justify using the word 'mistreated'. It was cock-up not conspiracy - they shouldn't have granted him the exemption and the visa in the first place - but it resulted in him being mistreated. So I think an accurate summary is he *was* mistreated but you have zero sympathy for him because he himself has behaved badly and is being a total twat about Covid vaccination. You're probably in the majority on this outside Serbia and the tennis world.
    Yes - incompetence though? Pre-election populist posturing I'd say. Anyone who has been travelling lately knows that countries have in effect contracted out their border requirements to the airlines, who check every passenger at check-in. If there was an error then the airline's procedures were at fault. If this had happened to you or I I think we'd have been waved through or at worst given a Covid test before leaving the airport.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    moonshine said:

    What to make of the Telegraph Carrie story, replete with photo of scissors legs.

    They’ll know it’s not dynamite with the reading public. But one gets the impression that the reading public are not the target. There is one reader this story is targeted at and his name is Boris Johnson.

    It’s gloves off stuff. “Unless you exit stage left, we are coming after your personal life and this is a mere amuse bouche to the 12 course tasting menu we have lined up”.

    Let us not forget that this is a man who for all his faults, has always done his best to retain a certain mystery about his family life. To the extent that until very recently his wikipedia entry had to caveat his many children he has.

    Quite something for the Boris Bible to take this approach. I am not tempted by TSE’s bet. Far too much uncertainty.

    ‘this is a man who for all his faults, has always done his best to retain a certain mystery about his family life’

    Well, that’s one way of putting it. I’d put that in his faults ledger myself.
    That’s one hell of a ledger. Must be at Volume Eight by now.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Speak for yourself. I’m a Pict.
    Pictthewrongsport.
    Vg
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions last Christmas were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    Morning, @DavidL.

    I don't wholly agree - what helped before Christmas was the voluntary action taken by many people to eschew pre-Christmas socialising in exchange for being able to have a Christmas at home with loved ones and/or family.

    The hospitality industry suffered because those who were risk averse but wanted to see their families decided the work "do", the pre-Christmas social wasn't worth the risk.

    There have been a lot of deaths reported this week and the argument as to whether some or all were directly attributable to the virus will rage on - hopefully we're through the worst but I do suspect (and it's no more than that) the generational intermixing at Christmas might have had deleterious effects.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - test and trace failed because people couldn't or wouldn't do it. It wasn't in theory a bad idea as a mechanism for trying to control virus outbreaks but impractical.

    I'd also argue we've been very lucky that Omicron wasn't a more severe strain of the virus - had it, for example, had the severity of Delta or even the original strain we'd have been in a lot worse position even with vaccination.
    Another airy dismissal.

    The South Africans told us it was mild. They actually told us this. Emphatically and repeatedly. They had the real world data in front of them. Dr Angelique Coetzee was on record calling the UK reaction hysterical. At the time.

    In what universe were we “lucky” that it was mild?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286

    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

    Binned. Though I agree with you it was a waste of time and money in the first place.
    Thanks for your reply, Richard. I have been met with a wall of silence from most other PBers!
    I think its obvious from my other comments I think that they should be binned too. I would be genuinely interested to hear from anyone who thought differently.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    JBriskin3 said:

    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

    Binned. Though I agree with you it was a waste of time and money in the first place.
    Thanks for your reply, Richard. I have been met with a wall of silence from most other PBers!
    I know what I would do RE: Plan B

    I'd follow the data.
    Which is saying what to you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Poor Novax what a shame!

    I actually do feel for him. He's been mistreated here. I'm still a fan and I hope he goes on to smash all the records and end the GOAT conversation. But it's a reasonable decision by Australia. The error was granting him a visa in the first place.
    His errors are being a consistently anti-vax @sshat, not getting vaccinated, going around spreading the virus after he's got a positive result, and lying on immigration forms.

    Given that, how do you think he's been 'mistreated'?

    I feel zero sympathy for him. Like Johnson, his mistakes are all his own and unforced.
    Told he could play. Given a visa. Goes. Visa is cancelled on arrival with no due process. Held for hours at airport. Detained in a shitty hostel. Goes to court, wins and gets visa back because of the aforesaid no due process. Back in the draw. Starts prep for the tourny. Then at the 11th hour the govt cancels his visa again in order to escape the hole they themselves have dug with their incompetence.

    This is surely enough to justify using the word 'mistreated'. It was cock-up not conspiracy - they shouldn't have granted him the exemption and the visa in the first place - but it resulted in him being mistreated. So I think an accurate summary is he *was* mistreated but you have zero sympathy for him because he himself has behaved badly and is being a total twat about Covid vaccination. You're probably in the majority on this outside Serbia and the tennis world.
    But all that occurred because of the points I made above. If he got vaccinated like nearly all the other players, none of this would have happened. He got the visa exception through a lie; he lied on his forms.

    The Aussie authorities were more than fair with him. Fairer than they would be with me or you in his situation.

    It is 100% his own fault.
    That he can't play the Aussie Open - or in fact visit Australia without quarantining - is 100% his fault but the mistreatment I described is not.

    The tournament gave him an exemption (from vaccination) on the grounds of a recent prior infection and this was in conflict with the Federal requirement for entering the country - which was vaccination or quarantine with exceptions to this NOT including a recent prior infection.

    That was essentially the cock-up. It meant that instead of being told he couldn't play and not travelling there, he did travel there thinking (justifiably) that he could. As did a couple of other players, I believe. And then what transpired transpired.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
    Most obviously perhaps, diversion of police resources that could be doing something else.

    There's also the question of extent, and whether he wants more than actual working Royals.
    Nah, he clearly needs protection from kidnap and terrorism threats. Much better use of police time than spending £20m on Assange or whatever it was.
    Not so simple. Why should Harry get public protection resources that eg Princess Anne does not get, for example?

    He chose to walk away from his official role.

    What the demand is for is important, and I don't think that has been specced by the PH side.

    What are they proposing for other countries, and are they arguing that private security is uniquely unsuitable in the UK?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Swedish is fantastic at creating compound words. Once you get the hang of it you can be quite creative. A typical example:

    Flaggstångsknopp : the wee decorative bit at the top of a flagpole.

    But the record is apparently:

    Nordvästersjökustartilleriflygspaningssimulatoranläggningsmaterielunderhållsuppföljningssystemdiskussionsinläggsförberedelsearbete - 131 letters.
    Swedes have always been the Germans of the North...😇
    A very fair summary! (Although my fellow citizens nowadays strenuously deny our incredible debt to German society, culture and language.)
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    I don't think they can, the licence fee collection agency is not part of the BBC and the BBC doesn't have access to the data.
    That’s an even bigger problem then..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Okay, fine. So what would you do now? Continue with restrictions indefinitely “just in case”?
    No, and I have never supported restrictions "indefinitely or just in case"

    What I do support is appropriate measures to "Live With Covid" such as work on improved ventilation in schools, cross infection in health and social care, accelerated access to anti-virals for vulnerable groups, active surveillance of emerging variants, improved treatment of long covid, recovery of non covid services etc. All of this requires thought, and Living With Covid will not mean a return to 2019 Living Without Covid.
    Agreed. Indeed no sane person could disagree.

    But the debate is about Plan B. Would you can it now? If not now, when?
    I think it can safely lapse on the 26th.

    Hospitality will need to think through its future though, and that can look quite grim.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/15/uk-tourism-industry-in-peril-as-overseas-visitors-stay-away
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

    Binned. Though I agree with you it was a waste of time and money in the first place.
    Thanks for your reply, Richard. I have been met with a wall of silence from most other PBers!
    I know what I would do RE: Plan B

    I'd follow the data.
    Which is saying what to you?
    I don't know - I'm just taking the piss out of Labour's position.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    I've just seen the cricket - not terribly good. Last I looked we were 90-3 and now it's game very much over.

    On to other matters, should we return to Plan A restrictions now? The case numbers are certainly moving in the right direction though the extent to which that mirrors what is actually happening is debatable. I think we're seeing a lot of mild cases going unreported.

    Certainly, the decision of several train companies to reduce services from tomorrow suggests the virus is till doing its work in the population. Apart from having to wear a mask in shops and on the tube, the current restrictions ae having no impact on me so I don't mind if Boris Johnson feels the need to offer some "good news" as an attempt to bolster his own shattered political reputation.

    The higher death toll last week was worrying but hopefully we're past the worst of that as well.

    Apart from the "I told you so" merchants, you can't blame any Government from acting from a innate sense of caution - assuming the behaviour of the virus in South Africa in summer will translate to England in winter was a risk. Fortunately, the vaccination programme got to enough vulnerable people with the booster to stave off anything more serious.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,745
    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Good. She’s right on this. We need to fund the TV transmission and broadcast infrastructure through general taxation and allow the BBC to seek their funding via other means.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    The Prime Minister known in history books as the dancing queen? Are you sure?

    Got to feel sorry for the sober Boris administration following that, they have been dragged down by the party culture they inherited. Poor bastards, they never stood a chance. 😕
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions last Christmas were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    Morning, @DavidL.

    I don't wholly agree - what helped before Christmas was the voluntary action taken by many people to eschew pre-Christmas socialising in exchange for being able to have a Christmas at home with loved ones and/or family.

    The hospitality industry suffered because those who were risk averse but wanted to see their families decided the work "do", the pre-Christmas social wasn't worth the risk.

    There have been a lot of deaths reported this week and the argument as to whether some or all were directly attributable to the virus will rage on - hopefully we're through the worst but I do suspect (and it's no more than that) the generational intermixing at Christmas might have had deleterious effects.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - test and trace failed because people couldn't or wouldn't do it. It wasn't in theory a bad idea as a mechanism for trying to control virus outbreaks but impractical.

    I'd also argue we've been very lucky that Omicron wasn't a more severe strain of the virus - had it, for example, had the severity of Delta or even the original strain we'd have been in a lot worse position even with vaccination.
    Another airy dismissal.

    The South Africans told us it was mild. They actually told us this. Emphatically and repeatedly. They had the real world data in front of them. Dr Angelique Coetzee was on record calling the UK reaction hysterical. At the time.

    In what universe were we “lucky” that it was mild?
    Just because it looks mild doesn’t mean it actually is - the dataset being used at the time to say it was mild has incomplete as not enough time had passed to reveal the full picture.

    Now it turns out that SA was correct but there was a significant chance that what happened in SA wasn’t going to be reflected elsewhere
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    I don't think they can, the licence fee collection agency is not part of the BBC and the BBC doesn't have access to the data.
    That’s an even bigger problem then..
    Don't understand. The BBC restrict internet access acc to whether you have a licence or not.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,411
    edited January 16
    Johnson appears now to be in some sort of zombie zone. He probably has very little Cabinet support, but there's obvious collective nervousness at taking his mantle as the economic or more specifically social outlook deteriorates. That leaves either an extraordinarily surprising and honourable resignation, a call from the Met police, or the May elections as an apparently increasingly commonly agreed end date. I think those three look pretty clearly in reverse order of likelihood.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
    I had one placed , that meant I cleared my feet but not rich yet.
    Hope the Scots, Irish and Welsh around here are all in good form this fine morning! Certain other PBers are a bit down in the dumps.
    I think Scot Tories have done ok out of this, tbh. Could've been a lot worse. Have to grudgingly accept that Ross neutralised the threat with impeccable timing.

    Labour remain incredibly weak north of the border. I had high hopes for Sarwar...
    I like both Ross and Sarwar. I think they are both doing reasonably well in truly appalling circumstances for their respective parties. Ross played an absolute blinder this week. Kudos! Sarwar has been strangely invisible for quite a long time now. Huge, huge mistake for SLab to rely too heavily on Big Jackie.

    I’m beginning to think the SCons might do surprisingly well in May, due to their unity and backbone. SLDs ditto. I suspect Sarwar is going to have some explaining to do after the polling stations close.
    I completely agree that Sarwar has been invisible but the Labour vote is well up nationally and it would be surprising if some of that did not bleed into Scotland, despite the lack of effort on Sarwar's part. I think that Labour will improve. The SNP administration in Glasgow is clearly on a mission to make that in Holyrood look good and their zeal has been noteworthy. I can see them losing control and some Labour recovery in the City, if not enough to become the largest party.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Good. She’s right on this. We need to fund the TV transmission and broadcast infrastructure through general taxation and allow the BBC to seek their funding via other means.
    Yep adverts on BBC 1 reminding people what voting Tory results in
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Okay, fine. So what would you do now? Continue with restrictions indefinitely “just in case”?
    No, and I have never supported restrictions "indefinitely or just in case"

    What I do support is appropriate measures to "Live With Covid" such as work on improved ventilation in schools, cross infection in health and social care, accelerated access to anti-virals for vulnerable groups, active surveillance of emerging variants, improved treatment of long covid, recovery of non covid services etc. All of this requires thought, and Living With Covid will not mean a return to 2019 Living Without Covid.
    Agreed. Indeed no sane person could disagree.

    But the debate is about Plan B. Would you can it now? If not now, when?
    I think it can safely lapse on the 26th.

    Hospitality will need to think through its future though, and that can look quite grim.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/15/uk-tourism-industry-in-peril-as-overseas-visitors-stay-away
    Why wait until 26 Jan? On what basis? Re: hospitality, it was trashed at its most profitable time at Christmas, now we are telling it to “think through its future”…
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Amazingly poor timing. Declaring war on the BBC just when her government most needs them. The flavour of recent broadcasts is reminiscent of the dog days of Major’s premiership. The stench of moral and national decay is palpable. The BBC is good at that stuff.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Poor Novax what a shame!

    I actually do feel for him. He's been mistreated here. I'm still a fan and I hope he goes on to smash all the records and end the GOAT conversation. But it's a reasonable decision by Australia. The error was granting him a visa in the first place.
    His errors are being a consistently anti-vax @sshat, not getting vaccinated, going around spreading the virus after he's got a positive result, and lying on immigration forms.

    Given that, how do you think he's been 'mistreated'?

    I feel zero sympathy for him. Like Johnson, his mistakes are all his own and unforced.
    Told he could play. Given a visa. Goes. Visa is cancelled on arrival with no due process. Held for hours at airport. Detained in a shitty hostel. Goes to court, wins and gets visa back because of the aforesaid no due process. Back in the draw. Starts prep for the tourny. Then at the 11th hour the govt cancels his visa again in order to escape the hole they themselves have dug with their incompetence.

    This is surely enough to justify using the word 'mistreated'. It was cock-up not conspiracy - they shouldn't have granted him the exemption and the visa in the first place - but it resulted in him being mistreated. So I think an accurate summary is he *was* mistreated but you have zero sympathy for him because he himself has behaved badly and is being a total twat about Covid vaccination. You're probably in the majority on this outside Serbia and the tennis world.
    Brought it on himself, lying toerag and first order arse thinking he is above the plebs. No sympathy here.
    Like I say, that'll be the majority view outside Serbia. But I do have sympathy for him. They should have told him he couldn't come and play, not told him he could then change their mind when he rocks up.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    I don't think they can, the licence fee collection agency is not part of the BBC and the BBC doesn't have access to the data.
    That’s an even bigger problem then..
    Don't understand. The BBC restrict internet access acc to whether you have a licence or not.
    No they restrict on regional IP addresses and ask a question - you can lie when you are asked the “do you have a licence” question
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,745
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    I don't think they can, the licence fee collection agency is not part of the BBC and the BBC doesn't have access to the data.
    That’s an even bigger problem then..
    No problem is insurmountable. Move to a Netflix style subscription model and chuck in a Britbox too, for good measure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    I don't think they can, the licence fee collection agency is not part of the BBC and the BBC doesn't have access to the data.
    That’s an even bigger problem then..
    Don't understand. The BBC restrict internet access acc to whether you have a licence or not.
    No they restrict on regional IP addresses and ask a question - you can lie when you are asked the “do you have a licence” question
    Should require the licence serial number to log in.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,676
    Carnyx said:

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    There's an interesting piece in the GRaun by Sonia Khan, the lady who got thrown out by Mr Cummings (IIRC AIUI going well beyond plausible chains of command, so in itself a major warning signal as to functioning of Downing St). Though I have a suspicion it's all part of the Blame the Civil Servants and Save the Pooch campaign (rather reminiscent of those leaflets old folk get sent at Christmas from certain animal charities with a photo of a yearning puppy and the not very implicit message 'pay up or the hound gets it').

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/16/from-prosecco-tuesdays-to-thank-you-tipples-no-10-has-a-serious-drink-problem
    Oh, really. It's in the Graun, so as a leftie, of course I believe it!

    Seriously though, it suggests a very sad state of affairs indeed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,867



    Fair enough, a nice reply.

    Do any PBer support the maintenance of Plan B beyond 26 Jan?

    If so, why?

    Yes, for wfh and shopping/trains, until the infection level drops to say 20K/day. Not too bothered about anything else. I take the point that some people really like shopping, and I know some who do, but they regard having a mask on while they do it as a minor issue.

    But mainly you're getting a wall of silence because most people have discussed it to death. Que sera sera.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said the lockdown ultras dismissing South African data has a huge element of "well they're just a bunch of spear chucking primitives" about it. Even among the scientists there was so much scepticism around it all that wouldn't have been the case had the data come from France or the US.

    The denial of their Delta to Omicron comparison showing that Omicron was less deadly was probably the worst moment of the Omicron wave.

    There was an actual post on here from @Big_G_NorthWales at the time in which I said that the SA scientists had shown it to be mild and he actually replied with words to the effect of “well they are not our/British scientists”. I picked him up on it at the time.

    That said, I don’t mean to single Big G out. His post was merely representative of the pervading colonial attitudes on PB at the time.
    Not just Big_G or just on PB. Even among the government scientists there was really so much scepticism about the SA data. Do we really think Chris Whitty would have gone on TV to warn against making conclusions for the UK based on US data or French data? Of course not, that it was from SA is why they were so eager to dismiss it and actually disbelieve our own data which confirmed that Omicron was a paper tiger for at least a couple of weeks "surely those spear chucking primitives weren't right all along, our data must be incorrect".
    In fairness, I think that the suspicion was that SA was underplaying the consequences because they were very upset about the flight restrictions imposed on them. They felt that they had been penalised for being candid and we felt that they were not doing enough testing to have a proper grip of what was going on. But the government would not have made the decisions that they did if they didn't accept the SA data.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,146
    RobD said:


    These kinds of posts are peak tedium.

    They are nothing compared to the three pages classics on J-class air travel.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,640
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions last Christmas were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    I'd also argue we've been very lucky that Omicron wasn't a more severe strain of the virus - had it, for example, had the severity of Delta or even the original strain we'd have been in a lot worse position even with vaccination.
    Just to address this specific point - it's not true. The scientists had been saying since the beginning that any variant which evaded our existing immunity would be milder because it would be less able to enter our cells.

    The scientists in this country seemed to go into a massive panic, ignored the high quality data coming out of SA in favour of their own poorly modelled severity data.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,135
    Only way I see him going in January is if there are pictures of a dancing living it large tipsy Boris at one of these downing Street parties. Seeing that on front pages whilst families couldn't be with their dying loved ones could be the end for him. I don't think any inquiry/investigation will nail him.

    The timetable seems to be May, get the local election bloodbath out the way then a Sunak, Truss, Hunt or someone else makes their move to 'save the party' by the next GE.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,953

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Amazingly poor timing. Declaring war on the BBC just when her government most needs them. The flavour of recent broadcasts is reminiscent of the dog days of Major’s premiership. The stench of moral and national decay is palpable. The BBC is good at that stuff.
    Disagree, it's an excellent distraction. It's an emotive culture-war type thing, which is why we're talking about it. It fascinates the media because they love talking about themselves. And it's even a good policy on the merits.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,745
    edited January 16
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Good. She’s right on this. We need to fund the TV transmission and broadcast infrastructure through general taxation and allow the BBC to seek their funding via other means.
    Yep adverts on BBC 1 reminding people what voting Tory results in
    Yet people manage to watch other channels without adverts without so much as a murmur. Or simply time shift and skip through the ads like we do.

    Of course there are other means of funding than just ads.

    The license fee funding just a handful of channels in this day and age, with the multiplicity of other channels and subscription services, is just anachronistic. The license fee must go.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@timloughton becomes the 6th Conservative to call for Johnson to resign.

    Loughton 6th to call for BJ to go. Brexiteer & BJ backer told me last night they not putting in letter (yet) but mood in constituency “very bad”. Whether PM wld have to go? Said 50:50 (& in wks not mths)

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1482632193495252995
    https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1482463465629495297

    I'm finding it quite tiresome hearing of all these crocodile tears from MPs and voters who were more than happy to vote for and support Boris when it suited them. They got exactly what they voted for.

    They were more than happy to foist an inadequate on the rest of us. Now that they've finally realised what the rest of us worked out a while ago, we're expected to sympathise with their boo-hooing and get behind whichever other inadequate and previous Boris supporter they want to foist on us again.

    Er..... no.
    I still don’t like the constant referring of Sue Gray as not independent - maybe it’s just me, my gut feel is it comes across as politically partisan attack on her and quality of her work.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,089
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    It has definitely reduced a lot now, with a quarter of youngsters being teetotal and many of the rest not wanting to make an arse of themselves on social media big factors.

    I've noticed that increasing numbers of my A-level students view conspicuous alcohol consumption as something done by chavs and degenerate boomers. Tobacco is utterly beyond the pale for them and at least half are vegetarian. There is hope...
    Weed?
    Dunno. If they are doing it they are not telling me about it. This is a group of high academic achievers with well heeled parents though so probably not entirely typical.

    100% of them are into video games. That medium matters more to them than film, TV or music.

    They almost never express any political opinions (beyond hating Boris and JRM) but a few of the boys (and it's just the boys) are alarmingly enthralled by the marathon podcasts of that far right enabling, steroid laden grifter with a head like a big toe Joe Rogan. I am deprogramming them and redirecting them to Chapo Trap House.
    They're a lost generation really. Totally useless for anything.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Carnyx said:

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    There's an interesting piece in the GRaun by Sonia Khan, the lady who got thrown out by Mr Cummings (IIRC AIUI going well beyond plausible chains of command, so in itself a major warning signal as to functioning of Downing St). Though I have a suspicion it's all part of the Blame the Civil Servants and Save the Pooch campaign (rather reminiscent of those leaflets old folk get sent at Christmas from certain animal charities with a photo of a yearning puppy and the not very implicit message 'pay up or the hound gets it').

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/16/from-prosecco-tuesdays-to-thank-you-tipples-no-10-has-a-serious-drink-problem
    Oh, really. It's in the Graun, so as a leftie, of course I believe it!

    Seriously though, it suggests a very sad state of affairs indeed.
    Quite. I was however interested to see the chap quoted earlier on PB denying there was any of that piss-artistry in Mrs May's time. Perhaps her office was uncharacteristically arid at that period, of course.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120


    Another airy dismissal.

    The South Africans told us it was mild. They actually told us this. Emphatically and repeatedly. They had the real world data in front of them. Dr Angelique Coetzee was on record calling the UK reaction hysterical. At the time.

    In what universe were we “lucky” that it was mild?

    I leave airy dismissals to the England cricket team.

    No Government is going to simply rely on what another country says. Yes, it is useful information but we have an older population in winter. We had to be sure those who were triple vaccinated weren't going to be at risk because while Omicron itself might be "mild" that didn't and doesn't mean there was no risk especially for older people with other existing health conditions.

    The high numbers of deaths in the past week would suggest some form of risk for those with co-morbidities clearly exists. The actions of individuals avoiding social contact to prevent contracting the virus allowing the possibility of visiting older relatives in safety at Christmas is the story of what has happened.

    Yes, that was bad for the hospitality industry and those who like busy social pubs but it was part human nature and part re-enforced by the messages underlining the transmissibility of the virus.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Swedish is fantastic at creating compound words. Once you get the hang of it you can be quite creative. A typical example:

    Flaggstångsknopp : the wee decorative bit at the top of a flagpole.

    But the record is apparently:

    Nordvästersjökustartilleriflygspaningssimulatoranläggningsmaterielunderhållsuppföljningssystemdiskussionsinläggsförberedelsearbete - 131 letters.
    Swedes have always been the Germans of the North...😇
    A very fair summary! (Although my fellow citizens nowadays strenuously deny our incredible debt to German society, culture and language.)
    Germany is currently a shambles.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Good. She’s right on this. We need to fund the TV transmission and broadcast infrastructure through general taxation and allow the BBC to seek their funding via other means.
    Unfortunately for you though, in about 8 weeks she’s shuffled out, and this policy binned as too controversial for poll comeback.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Amazingly poor timing. Declaring war on the BBC just when her government most needs them. The flavour of recent broadcasts is reminiscent of the dog days of Major’s premiership. The stench of moral and national decay is palpable. The BBC is good at that stuff.
    The tweet is odd. As if it was OK to threaten the young and middle-aged with prison. Obvs really focussed on the zimmer vote. As usual.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions in Christmas 2020 were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    A few other mistakes:

    1) Lack of a general health and fitness campaign
    2) Poor on risk segmentation eg could have sent better masks for the most vulnerable
    3) Obsession about hand washing while ignoring ventilation
    4) Closure of non-essential but non-risky activities eg golf courses
    Good points. Especially 1.

    The first thing that hits one upon leaving an airport in Scotland or England is how unfit/unwell most people look. You lot really, really need to up your game.

    A few helpful suggestions:
    - crack down on alcohol consumption like a ton of bricks (exhorbitant pricing, limited distribution/availability, total advertising ban and strict control of ingredients/strength)
    - ban on advertising sugary products
    - ban on fast food and confectionery sales within 1000m of schools
    - more PE; much, much more PE
    - invest in grassroots sport and fuck those privileged tossers in Olympics etc
    - about 100 other low-lying fruit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286

    Johnson appears now to be in some sort of zombie zone. He probably has very little Cabinet support, but there's obvious collective nervousness at taking his mantle as the economic or more specifically social outlook deteriorates. That leaves either an extraordinarily surprising and honourable resignation, a call from the Met police, or the May elections as an apparently increasingly commonly agreed end date. I think those three look pretty clearly in reverse order of likelihood.

    The economy is now larger than pre-Covid, the last restrictions are about to be dropped and that will boost output in Q1. Boris is very rightly in serious trouble for his pathological lying but 2022 may well prove to be a good year for the UK unless the wheels come off in China.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,819
    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions last Christmas were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    Morning, @DavidL.

    I don't wholly agree - what helped before Christmas was the voluntary action taken by many people to eschew pre-Christmas socialising in exchange for being able to have a Christmas at home with loved ones and/or family.

    The hospitality industry suffered because those who were risk averse but wanted to see their families decided the work "do", the pre-Christmas social wasn't worth the risk.

    There have been a lot of deaths reported this week and the argument as to whether some or all were directly attributable to the virus will rage on - hopefully we're through the worst but I do suspect (and it's no more than that) the generational intermixing at Christmas might have had deleterious effects.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - test and trace failed because people couldn't or wouldn't do it. It wasn't in theory a bad idea as a mechanism for trying to control virus outbreaks but impractical.

    I'd also argue we've been very lucky that Omicron wasn't a more severe strain of the virus - had it, for example, had the severity of Delta or even the original strain we'd have been in a lot worse position even with vaccination.
    Sure, but there are two points there. Unlike many other governments, not least in Scotland, the UK government was always more open to people using their own judgment and assessing risk by reference to their personal circumstances. Their clear reluctance to play nanny was, in my view, a commendable instinct.

    Secondly, had Omicron been much more dangerous that would have been clear from the SA data. And we would indeed have been in desperate trouble, no matter what policies were followed.
    I suspect there's quite a widespread feeling that 'people like them' should have more restrictions placed upon them.

    And some bitterness that the NHS didn't collapse because 'people like them' didn't have more restrictions placed upon them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@timloughton becomes the 6th Conservative to call for Johnson to resign.

    Loughton 6th to call for BJ to go. Brexiteer & BJ backer told me last night they not putting in letter (yet) but mood in constituency “very bad”. Whether PM wld have to go? Said 50:50 (& in wks not mths)

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1482632193495252995
    https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1482463465629495297

    I'm finding it quite tiresome hearing of all these crocodile tears from MPs and voters who were more than happy to vote for and support Boris when it suited them. They got exactly what they voted for.

    They were more than happy to foist an inadequate on the rest of us. Now that they've finally realised what the rest of us worked out a while ago, we're expected to sympathise with their boo-hooing and get behind whichever other inadequate and previous Boris supporter they want to foist on us again.

    Er..... no.
    I still don’t like the constant referring of Sue Gray as not independent - maybe it’s just me, my gut feel is it comes across as politically partisan attack on her and quality of her work.
    Don't think it is; rather, it's to - or should be - to her position as a subordinate of the very people under criticism, the senior heads of the CS and the PM. And reporting to the PM who decides on publication (and how much).
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@timloughton becomes the 6th Conservative to call for Johnson to resign.

    Loughton 6th to call for BJ to go. Brexiteer & BJ backer told me last night they not putting in letter (yet) but mood in constituency “very bad”. Whether PM wld have to go? Said 50:50 (& in wks not mths)

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1482632193495252995
    https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1482463465629495297

    I'm finding it quite tiresome hearing of all these crocodile tears from MPs and voters who were more than happy to vote for and support Boris when it suited them. They got exactly what they voted for.

    They were more than happy to foist an inadequate on the rest of us. Now that they've finally realised what the rest of us worked out a while ago, we're expected to sympathise with their boo-hooing and get behind whichever other inadequate and previous Boris supporter they want to foist on us again.

    Er..... no.
    I still don’t like the constant referring of Sue Gray as not independent - maybe it’s just me, my gut feel is it comes across as politically partisan attack on her and quality of her work.
    She’s employed by the civil service and her ultimate boss (Boris) is one of the people she is investigating. I just see her as being given an impossible no win task that no one could perform at the best of times even if you ignore the scrutiny the report will be under when it’s released.

    David Green has a great overview on why the report won’t please anyone https://t.co/L6UTIrkB5T
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,160
    edited January 16
    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    It's all very well making plans for the future, Nadine, but you're about to be entombed with your Pharaoh in his pyramid along with all the other low-status labourers. Your political life is desiccated and bandaged, and the heavy stone is about to be rolled into place to seal you in forever.

    Goodbye, Nadine. You won't be missed by anyone.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,411
    edited January 16
    jonny83 said:

    Only way I see him going in January is if there are pictures of a dancing living it large tipsy Boris at one of these downing Street parties. Seeing that on front pages whilst families couldn't be with their dying loved ones could be the end for him. I don't think any inquiry/investigation will nail him.

    The timetable seems to be May, get the local election bloodbath out the way then a Sunak, Truss, Hunt or someone else makes their move to 'save the party' by the next GE.

    ..and yet with Cummings and the pattern of events so far, you couldn't exclude something like that at as coming up, either. That's why I think either a May departure or some new leak that forces him out sooner look the two most likely turns of events, for now.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on here.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    These kinds of posts are peak tedium. We’re all here, except for isam who had a run in with the ban hammer.
    I don't think they're 'peak tedium.' Everyone NOW thinks Johnson is a charlatan and a despicable liar. Many of us have been of that opinion for years and couldn't believe that the once proud Tory party would elect him

    'Peak tedium' are the repetitive posts from the likes of me saying 'I TOLD YOU SO'. More interesting are explanations from people like you telling the rest of us why you couldn't see what was obvious and in plain sight.
    I’m with you Roger. The entire erstwhile Boris fan club on here owes us an explanation, and an apology.
    Not for me. Virtually all the PB right of centre just want Boris done now, Sunak in and the fight back begin, it’s the left who are beginning to sound moody and catty by the prospect. I’m not for rubbing peoples noses in it.

    Sunak v Starmer v Davey is at least back to proper politics where votes and seats are fought for and deservedly won or lost as it should be, on the issues and policies. Elections are stronger for that.
    Always rub opponents’ noses in it. Life offers up few pleasures, and Schadenfeude is one of the sweetest.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,819
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Poor Novax what a shame!

    I actually do feel for him. He's been mistreated here. I'm still a fan and I hope he goes on to smash all the records and end the GOAT conversation. But it's a reasonable decision by Australia. The error was granting him a visa in the first place.
    His errors are being a consistently anti-vax @sshat, not getting vaccinated, going around spreading the virus after he's got a positive result, and lying on immigration forms.

    Given that, how do you think he's been 'mistreated'?

    I feel zero sympathy for him. Like Johnson, his mistakes are all his own and unforced.
    Told he could play. Given a visa. Goes. Visa is cancelled on arrival with no due process. Held for hours at airport. Detained in a shitty hostel. Goes to court, wins and gets visa back because of the aforesaid no due process. Back in the draw. Starts prep for the tourny. Then at the 11th hour the govt cancels his visa again in order to escape the hole they themselves have dug with their incompetence.

    This is surely enough to justify using the word 'mistreated'. It was cock-up not conspiracy - they shouldn't have granted him the exemption and the visa in the first place - but it resulted in him being mistreated. So I think an accurate summary is he *was* mistreated but you have zero sympathy for him because he himself has behaved badly and is being a total twat about Covid vaccination. You're probably in the majority on this outside Serbia and the tennis world.
    But all that occurred because of the points I made above. If he got vaccinated like nearly all the other players, none of this would have happened. He got the visa exception through a lie; he lied on his forms.

    The Aussie authorities were more than fair with him. Fairer than they would be with me or you in his situation.

    It is 100% his own fault.
    That he can't play the Aussie Open - or in fact visit Australia without quarantining - is 100% his fault but the mistreatment I described is not.

    The tournament gave him an exemption (from vaccination) on the grounds of a recent prior infection and this was in conflict with the Federal requirement for entering the country - which was vaccination or quarantine with exceptions to this NOT including a recent prior infection.

    That was essentially the cock-up. It meant that instead of being told he couldn't play and not travelling there, he did travel there thinking (justifiably) that he could. As did a couple of other players, I believe. And then what transpired transpired.
    That would suggest that the tennis authorities in Australia should be paying everyone's legal costs at the least plus resignations of the relevant people.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    stodge said:


    Another airy dismissal.

    The South Africans told us it was mild. They actually told us this. Emphatically and repeatedly. They had the real world data in front of them. Dr Angelique Coetzee was on record calling the UK reaction hysterical. At the time.

    In what universe were we “lucky” that it was mild?

    I leave airy dismissals to the England cricket team.

    No Government is going to simply rely on what another country says. Yes, it is useful information but we have an older population in winter. We had to be sure those who were triple vaccinated weren't going to be at risk because while Omicron itself might be "mild" that didn't and doesn't mean there was no risk especially for older people with other existing health conditions.

    The high numbers of deaths in the past week would suggest some form of risk for those with co-morbidities clearly exists. The actions of individuals avoiding social contact to prevent contracting the virus allowing the possibility of visiting older relatives in safety at Christmas is the story of what has happened.

    Yes, that was bad for the hospitality industry and those who like busy social pubs but it was part human nature and part re-enforced by the messages underlining the transmissibility of the virus.
    Yet again - YET AGAIN - and I really can’t believe I’m repeating this again…

    The SA data was NOT comparing SA with the UK or indeed any other far flung land.

    It was comparing SA (Delta) with SA (Omicron) and it found the latter to be a far milder variant. The South Africans were absolutely crystal clear about this, said so emphatically and repeatedly.

    Yet they were ignored.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,065

    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
    That's what I thought. But think about it a bit more - why should a rich person be able to buy a limited public service which should be provided on the basis of need and risk? When homeowners want extra security they sometimes employ private guards. Would it be right for them to pay the police to patrol their streets even if the need is greater somewhere else?

    Also Harry is not denying that he has a security team and that it can provide security. His complaint is that they do not have "adequate jurisdiction". What does he mean by that? Does he mean powers of arrest? But if someone was doing something arrestable his security team would be able to call in the police. And if not that, what?
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,745

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions in Christmas 2020 were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    A few other mistakes:

    1) Lack of a general health and fitness campaign
    2) Poor on risk segmentation eg could have sent better masks for the most vulnerable
    3) Obsession about hand washing while ignoring ventilation
    4) Closure of non-essential but non-risky activities eg golf courses
    Good points. Especially 1.

    The first thing that hits one upon leaving an airport in Scotland or England is how unfit/unwell most people look. You lot really, really need to up your game.

    A few helpful suggestions:
    - crack down on alcohol consumption like a ton of bricks (exhorbitant pricing, limited distribution/availability, total advertising ban and strict control of ingredients/strength)
    - ban on advertising sugary products
    - ban on fast food and confectionery sales within 1000m of schools
    - more PE; much, much more PE
    - invest in grassroots sport and fuck those privileged tossers in Olympics etc
    - about 100 other low-lying fruit
    Ha ha, what a Puritan crank. 😂😂😂😂
  • So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    This might be a clue as to where the culture came from;

    Dominic Cummings: Winning political campaigns have ‘hot women and beer and pizza and music’
    Boris Johnson’s former aide says Vote Leave campaign was ‘like Animal House.’




    https://www.politico.eu/article/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-beer-campaigns-vote-leave/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,010
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
    I had one placed , that meant I cleared my feet but not rich yet.
    Hope the Scots, Irish and Welsh around here are all in good form this fine morning! Certain other PBers are a bit down in the dumps.
    I think Scot Tories have done ok out of this, tbh. Could've been a lot worse. Have to grudgingly accept that Ross neutralised the threat with impeccable timing.

    Labour remain incredibly weak north of the border. I had high hopes for Sarwar...
    I like both Ross and Sarwar. I think they are both doing reasonably well in truly appalling circumstances for their respective parties. Ross played an absolute blinder this week. Kudos! Sarwar has been strangely invisible for quite a long time now. Huge, huge mistake for SLab to rely too heavily on Big Jackie.

    I’m beginning to think the SCons might do surprisingly well in May, due to their unity and backbone. SLDs ditto. I suspect Sarwar is going to have some explaining to do after the polling stations close.
    I completely agree that Sarwar has been invisible but the Labour vote is well up nationally and it would be surprising if some of that did not bleed into Scotland, despite the lack of effort on Sarwar's part. I think that Labour will improve. The SNP administration in Glasgow is clearly on a mission to make that in Holyrood look good and their zeal has been noteworthy. I can see them losing control and some Labour recovery in the City, if not enough to become the largest party.
    How would the SNP lose control without SLab becoming the largest party? The SNP currently only have 35 out of 85 councillors.

    D'ye see yer old pals the Greens coming to SLab's rescue, contra their national party's arrangement with the SNP in Holyrood? That might be worth it just to see the volte-face from the hypocrites who whined and whined about them being the Nats' little helpers.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Swedish is fantastic at creating compound words. Once you get the hang of it you can be quite creative. A typical example:

    Flaggstångsknopp : the wee decorative bit at the top of a flagpole.

    But the record is apparently:

    Nordvästersjökustartilleriflygspaningssimulatoranläggningsmaterielunderhållsuppföljningssystemdiskussionsinläggsförberedelsearbete - 131 letters.
    Swedes have always been the Germans of the North...😇
    A very fair summary! (Although my fellow citizens nowadays strenuously deny our incredible debt to German society, culture and language.)
    Germany is currently a shambles.
    Wishful thinking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,365

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions in Christmas 2020 were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    A few other mistakes:

    1) Lack of a general health and fitness campaign
    2) Poor on risk segmentation eg could have sent better masks for the most vulnerable
    3) Obsession about hand washing while ignoring ventilation
    4) Closure of non-essential but non-risky activities eg golf courses
    Good points. Especially 1.

    The first thing that hits one upon leaving an airport in Scotland or England is how unfit/unwell most people look. You lot really, really need to up your game.

    A few helpful suggestions:
    - crack down on alcohol consumption like a ton of bricks (exhorbitant pricing, limited distribution/availability, total advertising ban and strict control of ingredients/strength)
    - ban on advertising sugary products
    - ban on fast food and confectionery sales within 1000m of schools
    - more PE; much, much more PE
    - invest in grassroots sport and fuck those privileged tossers in Olympics etc
    - about 100 other low-lying fruit
    I don't think puritanism is the answer.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,640
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions in Christmas 2020 were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    A few other mistakes:

    1) Lack of a general health and fitness campaign
    2) Poor on risk segmentation eg could have sent better masks for the most vulnerable
    3) Obsession about hand washing while ignoring ventilation
    4) Closure of non-essential but non-risky activities eg golf courses
    Good points. Especially 1.

    The first thing that hits one upon leaving an airport in Scotland or England is how unfit/unwell most people look. You lot really, really need to up your game.

    A few helpful suggestions:
    - crack down on alcohol consumption like a ton of bricks (exhorbitant pricing, limited distribution/availability, total advertising ban and strict control of ingredients/strength)
    - ban on advertising sugary products
    - ban on fast food and confectionery sales within 1000m of schools
    - more PE; much, much more PE
    - invest in grassroots sport and fuck those privileged tossers in Olympics etc
    - about 100 other low-lying fruit
    Ha ha, what a Puritan crank. 😂😂😂😂
    Completely barking.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    Cyclefree said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
    That's what I thought. But think about it a bit more - why should a rich person be able to buy a limited public service which should be provided on the basis of need and risk? When homeowners want extra security they sometimes employ private guards. Would it be right for them to pay the police to patrol their streets even if the need is greater somewhere else?

    Also Harry is not denying that he has a security team and that it can provide security. His complaint is that they do not have "adequate jurisdiction". What does he mean by that? Does he mean powers of arrest? But if someone was doing something arrestable his security team would be able to call in the police. And if not that, what?
    If it's an offence liable to arrest, they can do a Citizen's Arrest aiui.

    I think there are a lot of things that need to be explored.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions in Christmas 2020 were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    A few other mistakes:

    1) Lack of a general health and fitness campaign
    2) Poor on risk segmentation eg could have sent better masks for the most vulnerable
    3) Obsession about hand washing while ignoring ventilation
    4) Closure of non-essential but non-risky activities eg golf courses
    Good points. Especially 1.

    The first thing that hits one upon leaving an airport in Scotland or England is how unfit/unwell most people look. You lot really, really need to up your game.

    A few helpful suggestions:
    - crack down on alcohol consumption like a ton of bricks (exhorbitant pricing, limited distribution/availability, total advertising ban and strict control of ingredients/strength)
    - ban on advertising sugary products
    - ban on fast food and confectionery sales within 1000m of schools
    - more PE; much, much more PE
    - invest in grassroots sport and fuck those privileged tossers in Olympics etc
    - about 100 other low-lying fruit
    Ha ha, what a Puritan crank. 😂😂😂😂
    That’s a compliment in Sweden.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,411
    edited January 16
    DavidL said:

    Johnson appears now to be in some sort of zombie zone. He probably has very little Cabinet support, but there's obvious collective nervousness at taking his mantle as the economic or more specifically social outlook deteriorates. That leaves either an extraordinarily surprising and honourable resignation, a call from the Met police, or the May elections as an apparently increasingly commonly agreed end date. I think those three look pretty clearly in reverse order of likelihood.

    The economy is now larger than pre-Covid, the last restrictions are about to be dropped and that will boost output in Q1. Boris is very rightly in serious trouble for his pathological lying but 2022 may well prove to be a good year for the UK unless the wheels come off in China.
    The economy and standards of living are about to diverge much more markedly, which is why I mentioned social as much as economic, really. They're all nervous about taking this crown, as seems quite openly admitted .
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,745

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Good. She’s right on this. We need to fund the TV transmission and broadcast infrastructure through general taxation and allow the BBC to seek their funding via other means.
    Unfortunately for you though, in about 8 weeks she’s shuffled out, and this policy binned as too controversial for poll comeback.
    We will see.

    This policy really isn’t that controversial and will be less and less controversial as time goes on and people keep moving away from consuming their entertainment from TV channels. Ratings are solidly in decline, even with 7 day catch up added in. Dr Who on New Year’s Day classic example. Decent share, incredibly low numbers. Certainly not what it would get in such a time slot even five years ago.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869

    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on here.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    These kinds of posts are peak tedium. We’re all here, except for isam who had a run in with the ban hammer.
    I don't think they're 'peak tedium.' Everyone NOW thinks Johnson is a charlatan and a despicable liar. Many of us have been of that opinion for years and couldn't believe that the once proud Tory party would elect him

    'Peak tedium' are the repetitive posts from the likes of me saying 'I TOLD YOU SO'. More interesting are explanations from people like you telling the rest of us why you couldn't see what was obvious and in plain sight.
    I’m with you Roger. The entire erstwhile Boris fan club on here owes us an explanation, and an apology.
    Not for me. Virtually all the PB right of centre just want Boris done now, Sunak in and the fight back begin, it’s the left who are beginning to sound moody and catty by the prospect. I’m not for rubbing peoples noses in it.

    Sunak v Starmer v Davey is at least back to proper politics where votes and seats are fought for and deservedly won or lost as it should be, on the issues and policies. Elections are stronger for that.
    Always rub opponents’ noses in it. Life offers up few pleasures, and Schadenfeude is one of the sweetest.
    I’ve obviously still a lot to learn.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,397
    DavidL said:

    Johnson appears now to be in some sort of zombie zone. He probably has very little Cabinet support, but there's obvious collective nervousness at taking his mantle as the economic or more specifically social outlook deteriorates. That leaves either an extraordinarily surprising and honourable resignation, a call from the Met police, or the May elections as an apparently increasingly commonly agreed end date. I think those three look pretty clearly in reverse order of likelihood.

    The economy is now larger than pre-Covid, the last restrictions are about to be dropped and that will boost output in Q1. Boris is very rightly in serious trouble for his pathological lying but 2022 may well prove to be a good year for the UK unless the wheels come off in China.
    Inflation.

    And the number of people on unemployment related benefits is still significantly higher than pre-pandemic (though that data is quite out of date now).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions in Christmas 2020 were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    A few other mistakes:

    1) Lack of a general health and fitness campaign
    2) Poor on risk segmentation eg could have sent better masks for the most vulnerable
    3) Obsession about hand washing while ignoring ventilation
    4) Closure of non-essential but non-risky activities eg golf courses
    1 is by far the most important. In lockdown 1 I stopped drinking, took up more exercise despite my gym being closed and lost about 20 pounds to be ready for Covid. I regret to advise subsequent developments have not necessarily been to my advantage....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286
    Cyclefree said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
    That's what I thought. But think about it a bit more - why should a rich person be able to buy a limited public service which should be provided on the basis of need and risk? When homeowners want extra security they sometimes employ private guards. Would it be right for them to pay the police to patrol their streets even if the need is greater somewhere else?

    Also Harry is not denying that he has a security team and that it can provide security. His complaint is that they do not have "adequate jurisdiction". What does he mean by that? Does he mean powers of arrest? But if someone was doing something arrestable his security team would be able to call in the police. And if not that, what?
    I think getting licences for concealed weapons in this country is extraordinarily difficult.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823
    edited January 16

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Good. She’s right on this. We need to fund the TV transmission and broadcast infrastructure through general taxation and allow the BBC to seek their funding via other means.
    Unfortunately for you though, in about 8 weeks she’s shuffled out, and this policy binned as too controversial for poll comeback.
    We can but hope Nadine Dorries is exiled to the backbenches for good and for all. However:

    Leaving aside the rather sinister way she phrased it, she is on this only issue only correct and the licence fee is insupportable. I watch maybe 6 hours of BBC content a month. I could manage without it altogether if I wished. But because I watch a fair amount of live sport on Sky, I have to keep paying the licence fee.

    If Sky moves to an all streaming service, and I watch everything on catch up, then I no longer need the licence fee. And I will definitely cancel it.

    And that is the way things are moving.

    Which means the licence fee will no longer fund the Beeb anyway and they need to find a new model.

    It is not the culture war nutters on either side that are getting rid of it, but changing technology and economics. Just as we don't see gangers with scythes working in the fields at harvest time any more.

    If the Beeb had any sense, they would have been moving to a subscription model along the lines of Sky but much cheaper for ten years. Indeed, an international subscription model could have worked. Given their back catalogue, the world-renowned news service and the legacy capital resources they have, they could have been Netflix on steroids.

    Alas, they do not have any sense. They are too late to the party and it looks to me as though in about 2-3 years they'll fade away, possibly via a merger.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,160
    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@timloughton becomes the 6th Conservative to call for Johnson to resign.

    Loughton 6th to call for BJ to go. Brexiteer & BJ backer told me last night they not putting in letter (yet) but mood in constituency “very bad”. Whether PM wld have to go? Said 50:50 (& in wks not mths)

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1482632193495252995
    https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1482463465629495297

    I'm finding it quite tiresome hearing of all these crocodile tears from MPs and voters who were more than happy to vote for and support Boris when it suited them. They got exactly what they voted for.

    They were more than happy to foist an inadequate on the rest of us. Now that they've finally realised what the rest of us worked out a while ago, we're expected to sympathise with their boo-hooing and get behind whichever other inadequate and previous Boris supporter they want to foist on us again.

    Er..... no.
    I still don’t like the constant referring of Sue Gray as not independent - maybe it’s just me, my gut feel is it comes across as politically partisan attack on her and quality of her work.
    Don't think it is; rather, it's to - or should be - to her position as a subordinate of the very people under criticism, the senior heads of the CS and the PM. And reporting to the PM who decides on publication (and how much).
    It's that simple. To be someone's boss is to have some power over them. That is the opposite of them being independent.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    There were many people on here who were pointing out very early on that the frightening spike of cases in SA was not being followed by either a spike in hospitalisations or deaths. The government clearly saw that too and decided that the risk of plan B was worth it. It was a brave call, had Omicron proven more lethal in an older population with more co-morbidities forcing the government to take further precautions they would have lost most or all of the credit they have earned with vaccines etc.

    As it is we have seen that the restrictions on sports events, pubs, nightclubs etc which so ruined New Year in Scotland have been proven to be unnecessary and the economic damage all too avoidable.

    So plan B is added to the list of successes which includes the methodology of selecting the vaccines with Kate Bingham; the incredibly quick approval and roll out; the strategic investments in vaccine manufacture; the best sequencing system in the world; the furlough scheme, the grants for the self employed, the hospitality sector and retail; the booster scheme and the decision, despite a lot of medical controversy, to extend vaccines to children.

    Of course there have been failures too: airport policy throughout has been chaotic and irrational; the test and trace system has been incredibly ineffective and an unbelievable waste of money; the decisions in Christmas 2020 were clearly sub-optimal; education has been far more disrupted than it should have been; the decision to clear out the bed blockers from hospital to Care homes could have been handled a lot better and, although understandable, the Nightingale hospitals proved rather a waste of money.

    No doubt there are other points that could be made in either category but for me it is a solid B+, arguably A-, and has been a hell of a lot more important to the welfare and future of the residents of this country than civil servants drinking after hours at their work.

    A few other mistakes:

    1) Lack of a general health and fitness campaign
    2) Poor on risk segmentation eg could have sent better masks for the most vulnerable
    3) Obsession about hand washing while ignoring ventilation
    4) Closure of non-essential but non-risky activities eg golf courses
    Good points. Especially 1.

    The first thing that hits one upon leaving an airport in Scotland or England is how unfit/unwell most people look. You lot really, really need to up your game.

    A few helpful suggestions:
    - crack down on alcohol consumption like a ton of bricks (exhorbitant pricing, limited distribution/availability, total advertising ban and strict control of ingredients/strength)
    - ban on advertising sugary products
    - ban on fast food and confectionery sales within 1000m of schools
    - more PE; much, much more PE
    - invest in grassroots sport and fuck those privileged tossers in Olympics etc
    - about 100 other low-lying fruit
    I don't think puritanism is the answer.
    So you acknowledge the problem. What is the answer then?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823
    Cyclefree said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
    That's what I thought. But think about it a bit more - why should a rich person be able to buy a limited public service which should be provided on the basis of need and risk? When homeowners want extra security they sometimes employ private guards. Would it be right for them to pay the police to patrol their streets even if the need is greater somewhere else?

    Also Harry is not denying that he has a security team and that it can provide security. His complaint is that they do not have "adequate jurisdiction". What does he mean by that? Does he mean powers of arrest? But if someone was doing something arrestable his security team would be able to call in the police. And if not that, what?
    I suspect he means 'they can't carry guns.'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,014
    Of course, go away for an hour to get some lunch with the wife, and come back to see seven wickets down and the match has finished!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,640
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Johnson appears now to be in some sort of zombie zone. He probably has very little Cabinet support, but there's obvious collective nervousness at taking his mantle as the economic or more specifically social outlook deteriorates. That leaves either an extraordinarily surprising and honourable resignation, a call from the Met police, or the May elections as an apparently increasingly commonly agreed end date. I think those three look pretty clearly in reverse order of likelihood.

    The economy is now larger than pre-Covid, the last restrictions are about to be dropped and that will boost output in Q1. Boris is very rightly in serious trouble for his pathological lying but 2022 may well prove to be a good year for the UK unless the wheels come off in China.
    Inflation.

    And the number of people on unemployment related benefits is still significantly higher than pre-pandemic (though that data is quite out of date now).
    Yes, inflation is why my usual optimism has gone for the UK economy. The cost of living is about to rise by a very significant number for households across the UK and so are taxes. It's a pincer movement that will destroy demand.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,676
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@timloughton becomes the 6th Conservative to call for Johnson to resign.

    Loughton 6th to call for BJ to go. Brexiteer & BJ backer told me last night they not putting in letter (yet) but mood in constituency “very bad”. Whether PM wld have to go? Said 50:50 (& in wks not mths)

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1482632193495252995
    https://twitter.com/timloughton/status/1482463465629495297

    I'm finding it quite tiresome hearing of all these crocodile tears from MPs and voters who were more than happy to vote for and support Boris when it suited them. They got exactly what they voted for.

    They were more than happy to foist an inadequate on the rest of us. Now that they've finally realised what the rest of us worked out a while ago, we're expected to sympathise with their boo-hooing and get behind whichever other inadequate and previous Boris supporter they want to foist on us again.

    Er..... no.
    I still don’t like the constant referring of Sue Gray as not independent - maybe it’s just me, my gut feel is it comes across as politically partisan attack on her and quality of her work.
    She’s employed by the civil service and her ultimate boss (Boris) is one of the people she is investigating. I just see her as being given an impossible no win task that no one could perform at the best of times even if you ignore the scrutiny the report will be under when it’s released.

    David Green has a great overview on why the report won’t please anyone https://t.co/L6UTIrkB5T
    Is she employed by the Civil Service though. I thought her job record was somewhat strange, implying another employer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,365
    "BBC licence fee to be abolished in 2027 and funding frozen
    Government announcement will force broadcaster to close services and make further redundancies"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/16/bbc-licence-fee-to-be-abolished-in-2027-and-funding-frozen
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Oh this is going to be fun

    Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    This licence fee announcement will be the last. The days of the elderly being threatened with prison sentences and bailiffs knocking on doors, are over.

    Time now to discuss and debate new ways of funding, supporting and selling great British content.

    How long to the BBC adds a validation check on iPlayer and talks about adverts on BBC 1 prime time.

    Good. She’s right on this. We need to fund the TV transmission and broadcast infrastructure through general taxation and allow the BBC to seek their funding via other means.
    Unfortunately for you though, in about 8 weeks she’s shuffled out, and this policy binned as too controversial for poll comeback.
    We can but hope Nadine Dorries is exiled to the backbenches for good and for all. However:

    Leaving aside the rather sinister way she phrased it, she is on this only issue only correct and the licence fee is insupportable. I watch maybe 6 hours of BBC content a month. I could manage without it altogether if I wished. But because I watch a fair amount of live sport on Sky, I have to keep paying the licence fee.

    If Sky moves to an all streaming service, and I watch everything on catch up, then I no longer need the licence fee. And I will definitely cancel it.

    And that is the way things are moving.

    Which means the licence fee will no longer fund the Beeb anyway and they need to find a new model.

    It is not the culture war nutters on either side that are getting rid of it, but changing technology and economics. Just as we don't see gangers with scythes working in the fields at harvest time any more.

    If the Beeb had any sense, they would have been moving to a subscription model along the lines of Sky but much cheaper for ten years. Indeed, an international subscription model could have worked. Given their back catalogue, the world-renowned news service and the legacy capital resources they have, they could have been Netflix on steroids.

    Alas, they do not have any sense. They are too late to the party and it looks to me as though in about 2-3 years they'll fade away, possibly via a merger.
    Doesn’t help that the single market in media in Europe has been removed from the BBC. They had been doing extremely well on the mainland. Waving bye bye to those markets was painful for them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,286

    DavidL said:

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    The idea of anyone either having fun or being allowed to enjoy themselves in Mrs May's government is indeed a bit of a stretch. And did it make them any more competent?
    At least they didn't funnel off billions of pounds' worth of unmonitored contracts to personal contacts. I was no fan of Theresa May, but she was never corruptible.
    Nor did she face a crisis like Covid requiring urgent action. She would have dithered and whilst that would no doubt have saved a few bob here and there many more people would have died.
This discussion has been closed.