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Johnson: leading his party into opposition? – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 2022

    I think Leask’s been pretty turned off by the riper end of Cyberbritnattery, and he feels validated by the splitting off of Wings from mainstream Indy support. Wouldn’t put him in our camp yet but a rare open mind on the Herald is to be welcomed.

    Oh for the days of Bell and McIlvanney.
    Quite. Just been rereading The Papers of Tony Veitch and bought McIlvanney's last and unfinished Jock noir, completed by Ian Rankin: not read yet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Do it, if Everton go down, you'll have money to drown your sorrows.
    Pick 3 of 4 from Watford, Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle I think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    "It is understood that up to 30 letters of no-confidence have been submitted to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee of Tory MPs."

    Mail


    If true, then I am thinking that any one of the serious contenders (Sunak, Truss, Hunt) could mobilise their support team to get over the line for the 54 required. So, now a matter of timing?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    MaxPB said:

    On Fortis Green? Never been to it, our neighbours said it wasn't very good. The husband recommended the stag to us when they had us over to welcome us just after we moved in. The neighbours have done well to make friends with us now that I've got all of my garden gadgets, they come over for wood fired pizza and regularly for smoked meats. The wife makes a pretty mean espresso martini and brings over loads of premade which I think is a fair trade!
    The Clissold used to be a fine place, with good if not brilliant food, and a nice space out the back. It also has a colourful history. The Kinks formed there and played their first gig out the back. Rod Stewart and Viv Albertine and other various arty/counter-cultural types associated with Creighton Comp/Fortismere School (my daughter's school!) also hung out there

    It was fun and the history made it special. But the revamp has turned it into a pseudo-Greek taverna (why? It was doing fine as it was?!) and has apparently ruined it.

    So praise the Lord for the Bald Faced Stag
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    JBriskin3 said:

    I fear for this country having a former leader of the CPS as PM.

    So you’re not worried about what’s going on now with several bills going through parliament . What exactly is Starmer likely to do that could be worse than what the Tories are doing ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,652
    Leon said:

    No, it isn't a class thing, because I agree - I like motorway service stations for the exact same reason. I also like a good railway station and even a nice airport - if they are not horribly crowded - on partly the same basis. It IS the transience. The liminal space with a purpose. Yet motorway stations are even better because everyone is, as you say, voluntarily paused

    You've been driving three hours. You fancy a stop. You get out and stretch your legs and head in to the Moto on the M3. You get a decent coffee (these days). You sigh and relax, think about buying something pointless for the car or the kids. It is a tiny tiny holiday in the hurly burly of life

    But that doesn't stop the beans and eggs in open metal coffins being disgusting. They were

    You can do a good fry up in a few minutes, from the start, if it is efficiently run and sufficiently busy. A great transport caff does exactly that. Bacon and sausages always sizzling on the griddle - and therefore ready to go - that's the key
    Ok, we agree on the essentials then. Don't get all 'upmarket' with fry ups. There's no point and no need. Ingredients and timing is what it's about. I also take the point about the beans and the eggs sitting there and maybe going off. But this doesn't apply to sausages, which benefit from resting, so self-service works well for them. I'm surprised somebody like you who makes such a deal of 'taking back control' doesn't see the value in being able to choose your own sausage.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    TimT said:

    Yeah, my brother-in-law's family are all Camborne, so they probably don't know Redruth that well. ;)
    I'll meet you at HELLFIRE CORNER on Boxing Day
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited January 2022

    I think Leask’s been pretty turned off by the riper end of Cyberbritnattery, and he feels validated by the splitting off of Wings from mainstream Indy support. Wouldn’t put him in our camp yet but a rare open mind on the Herald is to be welcomed.

    Oh for the days of Bell and McIlvanney.
    Cyberbritnattery? Nice try but is your team which is the zealot nationalists. Hence the perfectly named Cybernats for your lot (although I prefer the term SNP Types)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kinabalu said:

    Ok, we agree on the essentials then. Don't get all 'upmarket' with fry ups. There's no point and no need. Ingredients and timing is what it's about. I also take the point about the beans and the eggs sitting there and maybe going off. But this doesn't apply to sausages, which benefit from resting, so self-service works well for them. I'm surprised somebody like you who makes such a deal of 'taking back control' doesn't see the value in being able to choose your own sausage.
    *hungry* (though some potatoes are boiling to go with the pickled herring and beetroot)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    "It is understood that up to 30 letters of no-confidence have been submitted to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee of Tory MPs."

    Mail


    If true, then I am thinking that any one of the serious contenders (Sunak, Truss, Hunt) could mobilise their support team to get over the line for the 54 required. So, now a matter of timing?

    Timing will be as soon as Sue Grey's report is out. No point going to early when that report is either fatal to Boris or a complete whitewash designed to protect Boris (which would be equally fatal).
  • kle4 said:

    It would be pretty remarkable for someone to to both win a huge majority and to lose it. Usually they at get out and the successor can be blamed for a bit part of it.

    John Major to an extent.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    MaxPB said:

    On Fortis Green? Never been to it, our neighbours said it wasn't very good. The husband recommended the stag to us when they had us over to welcome us just after we moved in. The neighbours have done well to make friends with us now that I've got all of my garden gadgets, they come over for wood fired pizza and regularly for smoked meats. The wife makes a pretty mean espresso martini and brings over loads of premade which I think is a fair trade!
    "with FRESHLY GRATED parmesan"

    London is truly BACK!
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    nico679 said:

    So you’re not worried about what’s going on now with several bills going through parliament . What exactly is Starmer likely to do that could be worse than what the Tories are doing ?
    I'm not particlulary concerned about any bills no. Starmer having no ideology is much more dangerous than Boris will ever be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    "The Metropolitan Police has made clear it is unlikely to launch a probe unless the Cabinet Office flags potential incidents where offences might have been committed;"

    Mail


    Why? Some of those involved have literally admitted to it on the record. Indeed, Johnson said he went to one for 25 mins and told this in the Commons! Hansard wrote it down.

    PB lawyers - if I walk into a police station and say I committed a crime, do they say we will have to wait for an independent inquiry?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,652
    nico679 said:

    What a fabulous post . It’s a bit like my love of airports although I’m a nervous flyer to say the least ! I could be anyone going anywhere.
    Cheers! Kindred spirits, perhaps, on this. I also dislike flying but like airports. Singapore Changi is my favourite. A cold Tiger beer in that tropical garden there is 20 mins that takes a lot of beating.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    JBriskin3 said:

    I fear for this country having a former leader of the CPS as PM.

    Why at least he understands that Justice Delayed is often Justice Denied and may properly fund our courts and justice system rather than throwing the money at the sexy bits (Police, Prisons) rather than the equally or more essential middle and end bits (Courts and Probation)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    "The Metropolitan Police has made clear it is unlikely to launch a probe unless the Cabinet Office flags potential incidents where offences might have been committed;"

    Mail


    Why? Some of those involved have literally admitted to it on the record. Indeed, Johnson said he went to one for 25 mins and told this in the Commons! Hansard wrote it down.

    PB lawyers - if I walk into a police station and say I committed a crime, do they say we will have to wait for an independent inquiry?

    One really begins to wonder how many of the cops were at the party.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    eek said:

    Why at least he understands that Justice Delayed is often Justice Denied and may properly fund our courts and justice system rather than throwing the money at the sexy bits (Police, Prisons) rather than the equally or more essential middle and end bits (Courts and Probation)
    Yay! More spliff smokers in jail. Not exactly something I want.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,026
    JBriskin3 said:

    Cyberbritnattery? Nice try but is your team which is the zealot nationalists. Hence the perfectly named Cybernats for your lot (although I prefer the term SNP Types)
    Oh dear
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited January 2022

    So what's your favorite breakfast spot in the Free State of Maryland? Or across the river in the Old Dominion, if you prefer?? Or even in Our Nation's Capital??

    Re Pret, last time I was in London (nearly 20 years ago) it was my day-time go-to option; by current standards it did not seem too expensive (I was on vacation so didn't mind much anyway) I esp. liked their ham sandwiches on French bread (or reasonable facsimile). One of those washed down with a can of Coke could keep me going for a LONG time.

    Best meal I ever enjoyed in UK, was at a B&B/bar/restaurant a few miles north (and above) Hebden Bridge. I stopped there late one winter afternoon to find a place to lay my weary head. Walked in the front door and was damn near knocked over by the wonderful aroma coming from the kitchen! Can't remember what I ate, wasn't esp. fancy but will never forget how good it was.
    Alas, Damascus is a dry town (still) so we have no decent eateries at all.

    Best breakfast I've had in recent years in MD was on the Eastern Shore. Middle of no-f***ing-where. I think it was a car sales showroom across from a falling down church at a crossroads of firebreaks in the loblolly forest that goes by the name of Royal Oak. The spot is called "t at the General Store" http://www.tatthegeneralstore.com

    In DC there is an amazing Middle Eastern restaurant in the Navy Yards, Albi, that has a breakfast counter attached to it, Yellow the Cafe. That is excellent too. https://www.yellowthecafe.com
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    malcolmg said:

    Oh dear
    Blimey - if this was the extent of MalkyG's flaming then I guess he might actually have a point and will have to up my game.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ping said:
    There's even a Big Dog reference in the comments!

    "Big Dog looking for one of these....."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    malcolmg said:

    Oh dear
    Hello Malky, hope you are well. Bit of a smirr here but mostly dry. Got some Orkney pickled herring and Baxters beet to go with boiled potatoes and a decent NZ white.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    53m
    Boris Johnson needs to survive until 7 June to outlast Brown

    However, since he has lasted this long he would be listed PM from 2019-22, which looks decent even if he were to go now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    "The Metropolitan Police has made clear it is unlikely to launch a probe unless the Cabinet Office flags potential incidents where offences might have been committed;"

    Mail


    Why? Some of those involved have literally admitted to it on the record. Indeed, Johnson said he went to one for 25 mins and told this in the Commons! Hansard wrote it down.

    PB lawyers - if I walk into a police station and say I committed a crime, do they say we will have to wait for an independent inquiry?

    Commons is not prosecutable, no? Immunity for MPs (but not MSPs or MWPs I believe).
  • Focus will shift from the Tories to Labour very soon now. Starmer & Co look to be reasonably robust (although some front-benchers are frankly just not up to it). Sarwar & Co are in a dire situation: their team is appallingly weak.

    But as I say, all will clarify with time. One constant remains in SLab’s favour: the overwhelming support from BBC Scotland.
    TBH, all Sarwar needs to achieve in May's local elections is for Labour to be the largest party in Glasgow which is entirely doable if the Tories get squeezed out and the Greens also gain seats at the expense of the SNP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    jonny83 said:

    Just seen the Tonga eruption time lapse footage captured by satellites in space. Holy Shit!

    Footage of the tsunami on Tonga.


    https://twitter.com/DonLew87/status/1482342784505987081?s=20


    Difficult to tell how bad it is. Maybe not apocalyptic, given the incredible size of the explosion in those amazing images. I guess they had tons of warning at least, thank God it happened in a remote part of the Pacific

    The person who stayed behind to film the waves is.... brave
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    1000s of NHS staff have just THREE weeks to get first jab in order to be fully up to date with vax by April sacking deadline says Dr Mosley in Mail
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,182
    dixiedean said:

    Today plumbed new depths. We've had a crippling time with injuries, true.
    But we're back to close to full strength (as near as any can hope to be at this time of year).
    Yet we were totally outplayed by Norwich.
    "Yet we were totally outplayed by Norwich".

    That's not something one reads too often.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,128
    dixiedean said:

    Today plumbed new depths. We've had a crippling time with injuries, true.
    But we're back to close to full strength (as near as any can hope to be at this time of year).
    Yet we were totally outplayed by Norwich.
    When were Everton last relegated? I think it is unlikely myself.

    Benitez will go, but it isn't him that's the problem. Something toxic is going on.



  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,182
    darkage said:

    One observation about this website and the comments on it, is that in the case of Labour and the Conservatives, it always seems like "the leader is about to go". But they very rarely are, in reality. They are more likely to hang on. Corbyn was a good example of this. It got really bad, and he just hung on. Boris could follow a similar path, he just clings on through whatever madness gets unearthed, until he eventually gets comprehensively beaten in an election and has to go. From a conservative point of view, I think that it is easy to be fed up with him and want to topple him, but they have to find a leader who can recreate the electoral formula that was successful in 2019. In the end, this is easier said than done. Might be better to see what happens at end of the current crisis, see if Boris can pull the situation back somehow.

    It would set a dreadful precedent if Johnson survives this.

    It is one thing surviving incompetence like Major, May, Corbyn and Starmer. Quite another, outrageous mendacity and corruption.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,101
    A Russian invasion of Ukraine looks pretty imminent...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    edited January 2022

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine looks pretty imminent...

    OH FFS I am commissioned to visit Odessa (a long held ambition) in March. All exes paid

    I suppose if they invade now it might all be over by then, and the thousands of corpses will have been buried in huge pits up near Kiev, so they won't disturb my journey? One can but hope

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,182

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine looks pretty imminent...

    Maybe Johnson will be saved by Putin.
  • kle4 said:

    However, since he has lasted this long he would be listed PM from 2019-22, which looks decent even if he were to go now.
    It wouldn't be humiliating, but it also wouldn't be a substantial Premiership of the sort that gets you a lesson about you in school a century later. And at some level, that's what he's after, isn't he?

    Action packed, sure. And maybe making a difference, depending on how much the UK rolls back/forward on you-know-what.

    But Thatcher, Blair and Churchill were substantial. Cameron, Major, Wilson, Macmillan, Attlee, significant. Below them, the also-rans, who look like getting another added to their list.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,222
    edited January 2022

    TBH, all Sarwar needs to achieve in May's local elections is for Labour to be the largest party in Glasgow which is entirely doable if the Tories get squeezed out and the Greens also gain seats at the expense of the SNP.
    Not sure about that. As I said previously SLab might benefit in Glasgow from more general SCon but I very much doubt they’ll take all 7 of their seats, also SNP have a good chance of getting back the 2 Alba seats. SLab’s performance in the Glasgow regional list last year was hardly stellar.

    Still, if Anas just points at a few more full wheelie bins..
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,905

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine looks pretty imminent...

    What's the latest?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Carnyx said:

    Commons is not prosecutable, no? Immunity for MPs (but not MSPs or MWPs I believe).
    The fundamental point is that doing over some student who had a house party for his mates for ten grand is easy. Going after the Prime Minister and his hangers-on is a whole different matter.

    It gives the distinct appearance that the Metropolitan Police are unwilling to act out of cowardice, sloth, or some combination of the two.

    Coming on top of the legion of other scandals in which it has been embroiled, it is small wonder that this is an organisation that struggles to command respect.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,553

    Calmac ferries still do stuff along those lines, or I effing hope so. Haven’t been able to partake for a couple of years 🙁
    When I used to travel to Arran for Children’s Hearings (pre Covid) I used to save myself for a Calmac breakfast. If I was feeling particularly greedy I would have another on the sail home.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    eek said:

    Timing will be as soon as Sue Grey's report is out. No point going to early when that report is either fatal to Boris or a complete whitewash designed to protect Boris (which would be equally fatal).
    GRAY


    G


    R


    A


    Y


    FFS.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    pigeon said:

    The fundamental point is that doing over some student who had a house party for his mates for ten grand is easy. Going after the Prime Minister and his hangers-on is a whole different matter.

    It gives the distinct appearance that the Metropolitan Police are unwilling to act out of cowardice, sloth, or some combination of the two.

    Coming on top of the legion of other scandals in which it has been embroiled, it is small wonder that this is an organisation that struggles to command respect.
    Didn’t we have this discussed a few days back namely that the fines were for people who got arsey when told to disperse?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    TBH, all Sarwar needs to achieve in May's local elections is for Labour to be the largest party in Glasgow which is entirely doable if the Tories get squeezed out and the Greens also gain seats at the expense of the SNP.
    Yes, I tend to agree. SLab could tank everywhere else, but if they manage largest party in Glasgow it’ll be the headline on the BBC.

    Other councils that SLab will be focussed on include Aberdeen, East Lothian, Edinburgh, Falkirk, Fife, Inverclyde, Midlothian, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian.

    Glasgow result last time:

    SNP 39 councillors
    Lab 31 councillors
    Con 8 councillors
    Grn 7 councillors

    Currently SNP minority control
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    edited January 2022
    Foxy said:

    When were Everton last relegated? I think it is unlikely myself.

    Benitez will go, but it isn't him that's the problem. Something toxic is going on.



    1951. Came back in 54.
    We have been relegated twice. Spent a grand total of 4 seasons out of the top division. By far the best record of anyone.
    Agree Benitez isn't the problem. We keep attracting hugely internationally well regarded managers who fail.
    Ironically. With us unable to spend under FFP, the situation is ideal for one David Moyes right now.
    13 points from our first six games.
    6 from last 13.
    We are in worse free fall than the Tory Party.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    jonny83 said:

    Just seen the Tonga eruption time lapse footage captured by satellites in space. Holy Shit!

    It makes you wonder what Karkatoa, Tambora or Thera would have looked like from space.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    What's the latest?
    Can’t say what the latest is but was in Kiev last November and was surprised at how relaxed it was given the tension. Very good city and some great restaurants.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited January 2022

    Not sure about that. As I said previously SLab might benefit from SCon travails in Glasgow but I very much doubt they’ll take all 7 of their seats, also SNP have a good chance of getting back the 2 Alba seats. SLab’s performance in the Glasgow regional list last year was hardly stellar.

    Still, if Anas just points at a few more full wheelie bins..
    Slab does better at local elections than Holyrood at least in places like Glasgow or N Lanarkshire and they are more transfer friendly. They also gained a by election in the Partick East/Kelvindale last year on transfers. I'm not saying it WILL happen but it is entirely plausible based on local issues. Sarwar would get a media bounce from that (even if it would be wrong to try and transpose that to Slab's fortunes at Holyrood or even Westminster).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ….
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited January 2022

    Evening all. Had to call an ambulance for my 74 year old mum this afternoon. She's suffering long covid, has been diagnosed with atrial fibrillation and is a few days into beat blockers for that. Breathing has been hard, this afternoon was seriously laboured and gaspy so I called 999.

    She's ok, so you don't need to express your sympathies - now sat at home having had an hour of treatment and lots of checks. Likely an acute burst of laboured breathing from those conditions combined with an anxiety attack.

    Reason for the post - the paramedic was on her own. Lots of single crews because they are "dropping like flies" with Omicron. Hospitals critically busy with patients - mostly younger and middle aged vax deniers. All of them say how sorry they are they denied the vaccines as they get hooked up to the machines.

    Whilst I don't support mandatory vaccinations and a "your papers please" society, we do need to punish the wazzocks refusing to get jabbed. If not a tax hike how about an economic recovery payments for everyone who has been jabbed. No jab, no dough.

    I know you said no sympathies but you have mine.

    And whilst you focus on the vaccine issue I also hope the callous bastards on the far right, some of whom frequent this place, will read this and post with a good deal more grace and compassion than is sometimes evident. This remains a bloody nasty virus, especially for many of our most vulnerable.

    Incidentally a good friend of mine is incapable of having the vaccines because she has anaphylactic reaction to one of the ingredients. So we should also temper comments about those unvaccinated.
  • dixiedean said:

    1951. Came back in 54.
    We have been relegated twice. Spent a grand total of 4 seasons out of the top division. By far the best record of anyone.
    Agree Benitez isn't the problem. We keep attracting hugely internationally well regarded managers who fail.
    Ironically. With us unable to spend under FFP, the situation is ideal for one David Moyes right now.
    Sean Dyche would be a good fit and time coming to an end at Burnley. Probably not very popular with the fans though!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579

    It wouldn't be humiliating, but it also wouldn't be a substantial Premiership of the sort that gets you a lesson about you in school a century later. And at some level, that's what he's after, isn't he?

    Action packed, sure. And maybe making a difference, depending on how much the UK rolls back/forward on you-know-what.

    But Thatcher, Blair and Churchill were substantial. Cameron, Major, Wilson, Macmillan, Attlee, significant. Below them, the also-rans, who look like getting another added to their list.
    Boris will not be an also ran, however abject his departure and brief his tenure, simply because he forced through Brexit (after winning the referendum) by cleverly securing an election and then romping home with a big majority: which enabled Brexit to be concluded (when it was about to be derailed)

    He changed the country in a fundamental and historic way. Which you cannot say of the other minor PMs, like May, Brown, Callaghan etc

    Now he may be seen as a terrible villain, or he may be partly exonerated by posterity (who knows) but he's definitely not a minor footnote of an also-ran

    It looks like he will be historically unique, and in his very own category: remarkably brief period in office, outstandingly important in British history, absurdly dramatic departure from Number 10
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,553
    JBriskin3 said:

    Cyberbritnattery? Nice try but is your team which is the zealot nationalists. Hence the perfectly named Cybernats for your lot (although I prefer the term SNP Types)
    Are you on the Ross or the Jack wing of Britnattery, @JBriskin3
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,513

    Sean Dyche would be a good fit and time coming to an end at Burnley. Probably not very popular with the fans though!
    A few seasons ago I backed Everton to go down @ 25-1. The one thing I didn’t want was Big Sam turning up at Goodison Park. Of course, that’s exactly what happened.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Are you on the Ross or the Jack wing of Britnattery, @JBriskin3
    I don't understand what "Jack" is referring to - but I have a Union Flag baccy tin if that helps.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    1000s of NHS staff have just THREE weeks to get first jab in order to be fully up to date with vax by April sacking deadline says Dr Mosley in Mail

    I don't think that Javid will back down on this (the principle of mandatory vaccination to protect vulnerable people) and a lot of the heel-diggers won't back down, either. So, lots of sackings coming in a health service that's already desperately short-staffed.

    Don't know if this, in and of itself, will be politically important though. The wave of departures from the care sector over vaccine refuser sentiment didn't cause much blow-back, after all. And Labour will find it hard to attack the Government over these sackings without making it look as if they're more interested in the obstinacy of the workforce than the welfare of the patients.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    Leon said:

    Boris will not be an also ran, however abject his departure and brief his tenure, simply because he forced through Brexit (after winning the referendum) by cleverly securing an election and then romping home with a big majority: which enabled Brexit to be concluded (when it was about to be derailed)

    He changed the country in a fundamental and historic way. Which you cannot say of the other minor PMs, like May, Brown, Callaghan etc

    Now he may be seen as a terrible villain, or he may be partly exonerated by posterity (who knows) but he's definitely not a minor footnote of an also-ran

    It looks like he will be historically unique, and in his very own category: remarkably brief period in office, outstandingly important in British history, absurdly dramatic departure from Number 10
    He will be like Edward Heath. A stunning election victory from unpromising circumstances followed by a brief and catastrophic premiership with just one lasting achievement, over Europe.

    Not quite the epitaph he wanted.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,553
    Foxy said:

    When were Everton last relegated? I think it is unlikely myself.

    Benitez will go, but it isn't him that's the problem. Something toxic is going on.



    The two Premiership teams I always hope to lose are Everton and Chelsea. It’s because Glasgow Rangers types support them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    GRAY


    G


    R


    A


    Y


    FFS.
    Sue Grey
    No A!

    I only do that when you do it, and only about 1 time in 10 btw
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    Here's the thing that rankles.
    6 points from 13 games. 5 of them are from games against Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea.
    All 3 we were the better team and looked comfortable at that level.
    But we are getting caned by our relegation rivals. It is clearly more than simply not being good enough.
  • Heathener said:

    I know you said no sympathies but you have mine.

    And whilst you focus on the vaccine issue I also hope the callous bastards on the far right, some of whom frequent this place, will read this and post with a good deal more grace and compassion than is sometimes evident. This remains a bloody nasty virus, especially for many of our most vulnerable.

    Incidentally a good friend of mine is incapable of having the vaccines because she has anaphylactic reaction to one of the ingredients. So we should also temper comments about those unvaccinated.
    Sure - there are absolutely a small number of people who can't have them. And thats why those of us who can HAVE to have them, to protect people like your good friend.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    Evening all. Had to call an ambulance for my 74 year old mum this afternoon. She's suffering long covid, has been diagnosed with atrial fibrillation and is a few days into beat blockers for that. Breathing has been hard, this afternoon was seriously laboured and gaspy so I called 999.

    She's ok, so you don't need to express your sympathies - now sat at home having had an hour of treatment and lots of checks. Likely an acute burst of laboured breathing from those conditions combined with an anxiety attack.

    Reason for the post - the paramedic was on her own. Lots of single crews because they are "dropping like flies" with Omicron. Hospitals critically busy with patients - mostly younger and middle aged vax deniers. All of them say how sorry they are they denied the vaccines as they get hooked up to the machines.

    Whilst I don't support mandatory vaccinations and a "your papers please" society, we do need to punish the wazzocks refusing to get jabbed. If not a tax hike how about an economic recovery payments for everyone who has been jabbed. No jab, no dough.

    This seems like the sort of thing the government should be throwing the kitchen sink at, yet I have seen surprisingly little effective advertising to convince people to get the vaccine.

    If anti vaxxers really are apologising as they're hooked up to the machines, someone should get their consent to be filmed and put together a tv commercial that's just a hard hitting reel of people on their death beds telling people to get jabbed. And it should be running 24/7. Every ad break. Every youtube preroll. Saturation coverage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    pigeon said:

    I don't think that Javid will back down on this (the principle of mandatory vaccination to protect vulnerable people) and a lot of the heel-diggers won't back down, either. So, lots of sackings coming in a health service that's already desperately short-staffed.

    Don't know if this, in and of itself, will be politically important though. The wave of departures from the care sector over vaccine refuser sentiment didn't cause much blow-back, after all. And Labour will find it hard to attack the Government over these sackings without making it look as if they're more interested in the obstinacy of the workforce than the welfare of the patients.
    The next thing we may see, although I would hope not, is people being fired from other roles for not being vaccinated. IKEA has already made tentative moves on this with their sick pay policy, and I'm pretty sure many private schools will not be far behind.

    The irony of that happening when the pandemic may finally be winding down would be remarkable but it doesn't mean it won't happen.

    Here's another guess - it will then start being applied to other vaccines too, especially flu.
  • pigeon said:

    I don't think that Javid will back down on this (the principle of mandatory vaccination to protect vulnerable people) and a lot of the heel-diggers won't back down, either. So, lots of sackings coming in a health service that's already desperately short-staffed.

    Don't know if this, in and of itself, will be politically important though. The wave of departures from the care sector over vaccine refuser sentiment didn't cause much blow-back, after all. And Labour will find it hard to attack the Government over these sackings without making it look as if they're more interested in the obstinacy of the workforce than the welfare of the patients.
    Meanwhile, Novax has spent enough time in Oz to have got himself jabbed!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,582
    Heathener said:

    I know you said no sympathies but you have mine.

    And whilst you focus on the vaccine issue I also hope the callous bastards on the far right, some of whom frequent this place, will read this and post with a good deal more grace and compassion than is sometimes evident. This remains a bloody nasty virus, especially for many of our most vulnerable.

    Incidentally a good friend of mine is incapable of having the vaccines because she has anaphylactic reaction to one of the ingredients. So we should also temper comments about those unvaccinated.
    I have no issue with anyone who is unable to have the vaccine. Only those who could do, but choose not too.
    Has your friend had discussions about all available vaccines though? They are not the same, so maybe one type is possible?
    I’m not sure who you are referring too ‘far right’. There is no one on this site who fits that description. There are some who think the price in individual freedom has been too high, and that we have reached the time to stop measures designed for a pre vaccination world.
    I would halt plan b immediately, but I have no power.
  • Leon said:

    Footage of the tsunami on Tonga.


    https://twitter.com/DonLew87/status/1482342784505987081?s=20


    Difficult to tell how bad it is. Maybe not apocalyptic, given the incredible size of the explosion in those amazing images. I guess they had tons of warning at least, thank God it happened in a remote part of the Pacific

    The person who stayed behind to film the waves is.... brave
    Thanks for posting.

    You're right, hard to tell severity. My impression is that it's bad enough, but not the worst.

    Local geography will be a factor, saw report that somebody was predicting before the explosion, that if it happened, storm surge would esp. impact the capital, at least by the waterfront. Which would be a big problem, not just there but for national infrastructure & economy in general, but for disaster relief.

    Good news is that Australian, New Zealand and (no doubt) American navy, air force, etc. have already been mobilized and are on there way. And even though Tongans are cut off (mostly) from the world, they will know this without needing a news bulletin.

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,186
    JBriskin3 said:

    I'm not particlulary concerned about any bills no. Starmer having no ideology is much more dangerous than Boris will ever be.
    You're not a Dual National then?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903

    Evening all. Had to call an ambulance for my 74 year old mum this afternoon. She's suffering long covid, has been diagnosed with atrial fibrillation and is a few days into beat blockers for that. Breathing has been hard, this afternoon was seriously laboured and gaspy so I called 999.

    She's ok, so you don't need to express your sympathies - now sat at home having had an hour of treatment and lots of checks. Likely an acute burst of laboured breathing from those conditions combined with an anxiety attack.

    Reason for the post - the paramedic was on her own. Lots of single crews because they are "dropping like flies" with Omicron. Hospitals critically busy with patients - mostly younger and middle aged vax deniers. All of them say how sorry they are they denied the vaccines as they get hooked up to the machines.

    Whilst I don't support mandatory vaccinations and a "your papers please" society, we do need to punish the wazzocks refusing to get jabbed. If not a tax hike how about an economic recovery payments for everyone who has been jabbed. No jab, no dough.

    Sympathies.
    I believe Quebec is the first to bring in financial penalties. They are introducing a Health Solidarity Payment for the unvaxxed. Still in the planning stage.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,553
    edited January 2022
    Are you on the Ross or the Jack wing of Britnattery, @JBriskin3

    I don't understand what "Jack" is referring to - but I have a Union Flag baccy tin if that helps.

    Douglas or Alistair.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't understand what "Jack" is referring to - but I have a Union Flag baccy tin if that helps.
    Lol - took me a while (I'm drunk) - but you're perhaps reffering to the Union flag as Jack.

    As I said I've got a Union flag tobacco tin.

    I like Ross. For me he won the Holyrood election debate last year by quite a margin.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    edited January 2022
    ydoethur said:

    He will be like Edward Heath. A stunning election victory from unpromising circumstances followed by a brief and catastrophic premiership with just one lasting achievement, over Europe.

    Not quite the epitaph he wanted.
    An interesting and imaginative comparison, but I don't quite buy it. Boris will be far more controversial than Heath ever was
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,582
    pigeon said:

    I don't think that Javid will back down on this (the principle of mandatory vaccination to protect vulnerable people) and a lot of the heel-diggers won't back down, either. So, lots of sackings coming in a health service that's already desperately short-staffed.

    Don't know if this, in and of itself, will be politically important though. The wave of departures from the care sector over vaccine refuser sentiment didn't cause much blow-back, after all. And Labour will find it hard to attack the Government over these sackings without making it look as if they're more interested in the obstinacy of the workforce than the welfare of the patients.
    My hunch is it won’t be that many doctors. I’d hope they are more sensible. But we will see.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    Leon said:

    An interesting and imaginative comparison, but I don't quite buy it. Boris will be far more controversial than Heath ever was
    Possibly. But he's also a lot less competent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,128

    1000s of NHS staff have just THREE weeks to get first jab in order to be fully up to date with vax by April sacking deadline says Dr Mosley in Mail

    800 clinical and 200 non clinical at my Trust it seems.

    April is a very bad month to have a baby.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,553

    Slab does better at local elections than Holyrood at least in places like Glasgow or N Lanarkshire and they are more transfer friendly. They also gained a by election in the Partick East/Kelvindale last year on transfers. I'm not saying it WILL happen but it is entirely plausible based on local issues. Sarwar would get a media bounce from that (even if it would be wrong to try and transpose that to Slab's fortunes at Holyrood or even Westminster).
    STV as used in Scottish local elections is much more suited to tactical voting, so Slab, Slibdem and Scons give each other their second and third choices.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited January 2022

    Are you on the Ross or the Jack wing of Britnattery, @JBriskin3

    Got it (after a google) I admit I've not heard of Jack before.

    My ideology nowadays is simply Anti-SNP Type. We need a broad coalition for the sake of the north part of this island.
  • ydoethur said:

    He will be like Edward Heath. A stunning election victory from unpromising circumstances followed by a brief and catastrophic premiership with just one lasting achievement, over Europe.

    Not quite the epitaph he wanted.
    Though Heath's achievement was unwound in time.

    As for Johnson's...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    ydoethur said:

    Possibly. But he's also a lot less competent.
    Can't argue with that

    A better comparison for Boris might be a revolutionary leader who is quickly deposed, becoming highly contentious and reviled by many, even as the faithful stand firm

    Robespierre?
  • ydoethur said:

    Possibly. But he's also a lot less competent.
    And Heath never attracted the amount of ridicule Boris has in recent weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Can't argue with that

    A better comparison for Boris might be a revolutionary leader who is quickly deposed, becoming highly contentious and reviled by many, even as the faithful stand firm

    Robespierre?
    Bernardo O'Higgins? Crucial in Chilean independence. Unable to take power at once due to a lack of trust, but made life hell for the official leader until he could overthrow him. Ruled with the help of a powerful minority faction but spent his six years in power pissing them off until they finally deposed him.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,582
    Foxy said:

    800 clinical and 200 non clinical at my Trust it seems.

    April is a very bad month to have a baby.
    Do you understand their attitudes? I agree with what you have said about those with antibodies being exempt.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579

    Thanks for posting.

    You're right, hard to tell severity. My impression is that it's bad enough, but not the worst.

    Local geography will be a factor, saw report that somebody was predicting before the explosion, that if it happened, storm surge would esp. impact the capital, at least by the waterfront. Which would be a big problem, not just there but for national infrastructure & economy in general, but for disaster relief.

    Good news is that Australian, New Zealand and (no doubt) American navy, air force, etc. have already been mobilized and are on there way. And even though Tongans are cut off (mostly) from the world, they will know this without needing a news bulletin.

    This, if true, looks a lot worse in Fiji. Tho some in the thread say it is also Tonga. Did they get no warning?



    "KNOWKNEE
    @JohnnyTeisi
    · 13h
    This family were in church. They’d just finish having choir practice and the tsunami hit 😩❤️🇹🇴"


    https://twitter.com/JohnnyTeisi/status/1482232568770887681?s=20
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,445

    A Russian invasion of Ukraine looks pretty imminent...

    Based on what?

    I was at lunch and one of my nervous friends opined the Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to the worst crisis since Cuba and we'd all be facing incineration by this time next month.

    I'm much less convinced - Putin will be aware of significant non-military consequences if he moves into the whole of Ukraine. Strengthening the Russian hold around Dombass is a maybe but Russian tanks driving into Kiev - I still can't see it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    Foxy said:

    800 clinical and 200 non clinical at my Trust it seems.

    April is a very bad month to have a baby.
    800 clinical? Bloody hell.

    Javid needs a way around this.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,903
    ydoethur said:

    Bernardo O'Higgins? Crucial in Chilean independence. Unable to take power at once due to a lack of trust, but made life hell for the official leader until he could overthrow him. Ruled with the help of a powerful minority faction but spent his six years in power pissing them off until they finally deposed him.
    Bet there won't be a Boris Johnson FC, mind.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/O'Higgins_F.C.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    Foxy said:

    800 clinical and 200 non clinical at my Trust it seems.

    April is a very bad month to have a baby.
    What's the position in the private health sector? Presume many of these 800 are not thinking oh I will get another job next week?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    edited January 2022
    OMG this tsunami video. WTF were they thinking? It will go viral and become iconic. Amazingly, at the end it looks like they have all survived


    https://twitter.com/sirajnoorani/status/1482258754666065923?s=20


    EDIT: I reckon they knew the tsunami was coming (check the lifebelts) and they staged it all, trying to get the most hair-raising tsunami video. And they succeeded
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416
    kyf_100 said:

    This seems like the sort of thing the government should be throwing the kitchen sink at, yet I have seen surprisingly little effective advertising to convince people to get the vaccine.

    If anti vaxxers really are apologising as they're hooked up to the machines, someone should get their consent to be filmed and put together a tv commercial that's just a hard hitting reel of people on their death beds telling people to get jabbed. And it should be running 24/7. Every ad break. Every youtube preroll. Saturation coverage.
    I agree.

    I suppose the 'nudge' unit are telling them that saturation will make things worse, but feck it. At least it would make the rest of us feel something was being done about a group of people who seemed determined to force another lockdown on England if they can.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,128
    dixiedean said:

    1951. Came back in 54.
    We have been relegated twice. Spent a grand total of 4 seasons out of the top division. By far the best record of anyone.
    Agree Benitez isn't the problem. We keep attracting hugely internationally well regarded managers who fail.
    Ironically. With us unable to spend under FFP, the situation is ideal for one David Moyes right now.
    13 points from our first six games.
    6 from last 13.
    We are in worse free fall than the Tory Party.
    Benitez got Newcastle relegated, but he wasn't the problem there either.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,582

    I agree.

    I suppose the 'nudge' unit are telling them that saturation will make things worse, but feck it. At least it would make the rest of us feel something was being done about a group of people who seemed determined to force another lockdown on England if they can.
    I dont think anti vaccers want a lockdown. I suspect there is a pretty strong correlation of anti vax and anti lockdown.
    It’s the modellers you want to watch...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    stodge said:

    Unfortunately, it's not from Tonga, but Indonesia and it's a tidal bore not a tsunami but apart from that, all good.
    lol. Fair enough

    They did get some great footage tho, and it WAS all staged, see here:

    https://twitter.com/Abdulrahman1492/status/1482375703731617801?s=20
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,286

    800 clinical? Bloody hell.

    Javid needs a way around this.
    The simplest answer often the best. Quietly abandon mandatory vaccination for NHS workers next week alongside the end of Plan B measures and hope no one really notices...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    If we date the start of the omicron wave to 6-Dec, there have now been more than 4m cases in this wave in England. Remember: that's not infections. That's cases. That 4m cases probably means over 10m infections, possibly over 15m.

    We do have restrictions on, so we can't simply conclude from the cases graph falling that we're passed the HIT absent restrictions. But I estimated omicron meant we needed about 20% of people infected to return to the unrestricted HIT. 10-15m infections should be enough for that.
  • I agree.

    I suppose the 'nudge' unit are telling them that saturation will make things worse, but feck it. At least it would make the rest of us feel something was being done about a group of people who seemed determined to force another lockdown on England if they can.
    Again I am reminded of the way the Thatcher Government reacted to AIDS and decided to go for the hard sell.

    Scaring the wits out of people works.

    "Don't die of ignorance" would be just as apt a catchphrase now as it was back in the 80s.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,128

    What's the position in the private health sector? Presume many of these 800 are not thinking oh I will get another job next week?
    No real private sector in midwifery, only in London.

    Private hospitals seem short of staff too. Lots have burnt out and quit, across sectors.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,101
    Inflation watch: my regular buy uncle bens microwave rice has just increased in price by 15% at Tesco. Raging.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    kyf_100 said:

    This seems like the sort of thing the government should be throwing the kitchen sink at, yet I have seen surprisingly little effective advertising to convince people to get the vaccine.

    If anti vaxxers really are apologising as they're hooked up to the machines, someone should get their consent to be filmed and put together a tv commercial that's just a hard hitting reel of people on their death beds telling people to get jabbed. And it should be running 24/7. Every ad break. Every youtube preroll. Saturation coverage.
    Since it became apparent that the Omicron variant was both less virulent and spreading very easily and rapidly, the drive to get people vaccinated has eased right off - understandably, in my view, especially given its infectiousness. It's ripping through the population so quickly (indeed, so fast that it looks like we may already be through the peak caseload) that it's too late for the jabs to save most of the remaining unvaccinated people who are going to get it. Thus the incentive to hurry along has been removed. Or, to look at it another way, it was one thing to get the boosters through all the elderly, middle-aged and vulnerable people who hadn't yet had them and were desperate for their turn; now we're down to third jabs for unconcerned youngsters and trying to persuade the heel-diggers to have their firsts, the imperative simply isn't there anymore.

    I've previously spoken of the possible benefits of mandatory vaccination, not for the sake of the refusers but to prevent the healthcare system from crashing and to avert the re-imposition of drastic lockdown measures that immiserate the whole community. Now that it's become apparent both that the pressure on the healthcare system from illness amongst the unvaccinated (as significant as it is) is not as drastic as was feared, and that lockdowns won't be making a comeback anyway because they don't work very well against Omicron, I'm content to allow the refusers to face the consequences of their choices.

    There is arguably a place for coercive measures in a period of emergency where there is a clear and substantial threat to the community, or for people in a position of particular responsibility: I remain in favour of mandatory jabs for health and care staff, who can always avoid them by the expedient of quitting if they're really determined not to have them. However, things get a great deal more murky if we're contemplating subjecting the unwilling to medical interventions primarily for the sake of convenience, or saving money, or saving them from themselves. We could do wonders for the nation's health and the wider economy if only we forced everyone to get weighed each year and imposed punitive taxes on fat people, for example, but excessive state intrusion into people's private lives should give us all pause for thought.
  • stodge said:

    Based on what?

    I was at lunch and one of my nervous friends opined the Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to the worst crisis since Cuba and we'd all be facing incineration by this time next month.

    I'm much less convinced - Putin will be aware of significant non-military consequences if he moves into the whole of Ukraine. Strengthening the Russian hold around Dombass is a maybe but Russian tanks driving into Kiev - I still can't see it.
    What I can't get my head around - although I am sure others will understand it better than I do - is why Putin decided to demand things he knows the West cannot deliver. He could have said that Ukraine was in the Russian sphere of influence and that the West had no right to interfere. NATO and the EU may not have liked that but they would not go to war over it. But the demand that NATO pull out of all the former Eastern Bloc countries was just fantasy. There is simply no way they would agree to that. There is no way under the Treaty they could. So why make such unacceptable demands?
This discussion has been closed.