Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
England
10-01-2022 115,998 03-01-2022 137,541
09-01-2022 121,228 02-01-2022 123,547
08-01-2022 130,330 01-01-2022 162,572
07-01-2022 149,405 31-12-2021 160,276
Four days of week on week days by reported drop in England now, the most up to date metric (Other nations by reported is a bit wonky for this analysis due to multiple day dumps).
The data by specimen date shows that the probably top of the curve *might* be between the 29th and the 4th. Reporting day is especially all over the place at the moment.
The more detailed localised data is still just up to the 4th....
In England the 4th was the peak day by specimen date. That series wil start registering some reasonable falls over the next few days, it already has for the 5th compared to the 29th.
With reporting day we might actually see a fair bit of catch up in England over the next few days as the testing system is able to catch up with the number of samples. By the end of this week the lag in the system might have reduced a lot so we could see some rises in reported cases but still falling by specimen date as the 6 day backfill is lumped in with a reduction in reporting lag to 3 days.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
The problem is the "with" or "due to" issue. As so many people have Omicron the deaths figure will stay high for a while. How many deaths would Omicron actually cause by itself?
Think we can safely say the plague has moved North.
Even in the North East, the admissions look like this. Elsewhere, flat or falling, in England
Looks to me that every region has peaked now. The consensus is the 7 day average figure, and there was a big drop when the figures from the 29th Dec moved out of the seven day figures; there will be another one in a few days when the figures from 3rd Jan drop out. The more excitable of us look at more granularity than 7 day averages - if we look at day to day figures (by day of test), they are dropping like a stone. These figures are subject to much greater vagaries of course.
Think we can safely say the plague has moved North.
Even in the North East, the admissions look like this. Elsewhere, flat or falling, in England
Looks to me that every region has peaked now. The consensus is the 7 day average figure, and there was a big drop when the figures from the 29th Dec moved out of the seven day figures; there will be another one in a few days when the figures from 3rd Jan drop out. The more excitable of us look at more granularity than 7 day averages - if we look at day to day figures (by day of test), they are dropping like a stone. These figures are subject to much greater vagaries of course.
Looking at day by day figures is a good way to drive oneself mad, I find. Reading coffee grounds, on tea leaves on black chickens. At midnight.....
I see we are already on an only elections which matter are London Boroughs trip a bit early this year. Suppose Labour swept Inner London, but lost most of the WM and S Yorkshire too. Would Boris face a VONC? Or are they intrinsically less important?
I wouldn't claim they are the only elections that matter by any stretch.
I live in London and can bring far more insight to London local elections than I can elsewhere.
Fair enough. My comment was more aimed at another poster who doesn't. However. It is a repetitive theme of the media that Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington and Barnet are of vital superimportance. Much larger Metro boroughs elsewhere barely merit a mention.
There aren't that many councils Labour can gain in the North, possibly Kirklees and Wirral from NOC, the latter at a stretch.
I think Tory control in Dudley, Walsall and Solihull* is probably secure.
*Probably the most interesting theoretical upset if the Tories lose enough seats to Greens and LDs as Solihull could get a Green led council.
However. When the Tories hold Wandsworth (they always do) it will be portrayed as a great victory in Labour London by the media (it always is), regardless of the results elsewhere. It's been like that for over 30 years. This is because journalists are particularly fascinated by Inner London for some strange reason.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
The problem is the "with" or "due to" issue. As so many people have Omicron the deaths figure will stay high for a while. How many deaths would Omicron actually cause by itself?
IIRC someone here calculated the numbers, and reckoned that we are looking at a couple of deaths per day for that, given the prevalence of COVID times the normal death rate...
Let's vary Stocky's puzzle. Same scenario except there's just the one bag!
A: 2 dips and win if you pick green with either. B: 1 dip and win if it's either green or yellow.
B is still a 50% chance of winning obvs.
What is A now?
With or without replacement? 7/12 without replacement (1/4 + 1/3). 1/2 with (1/4 + 1/4).
I meant without. So, looks like it's A now. Different answer entirely!
But with no time to calculate would you instinctively still go with B if faced with the choice in real life, ie with the bag right there in front of you and, say, £10k up for grabs?
Or do you think you'd just *know* it was A?
Or would you be paralyzed by indecision?
As demonstrated, I'd quickly do the maths in my head and pick the wrong bag!
Like a golfer who can hole the long ones but misses the odd two footer.
It's a great way to be.
In my PhD thesis, I cocked up a simple bit of maths in a derivation (multiplying two fractions together). I spotted it the night before my viva, doing last minute prep. Panic. Then looked at it and realised the mistake should have made my end figures completely ridiculous, which I surely(?) would have spotted. Looked into it futher and realised that I'd made the exact same error in another place, perfectly cancelling out the first error. So the end answers, via two - cancelling - errors, were correct.*
The examiners never noticed. I quietly corrected both errors in the final version.
Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class
It is remarkable. As pointed out here, one of the few constants in Johnson's political career since Mayor of London days is his unhealthy closeness to property developers.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
You discover that UK death certificate data are not that simple
The official w-o-w measure on the dashboard now shows a rise of just 1%. It's quite possible that will turn green this week, and show a fall. Which would be quite remarkable, and much earlier than expected if it is sustained. Still, demain est un autre jour.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
The problem is the "with" or "due to" issue. As so many people have Omicron the deaths figure will stay high for a while. How many deaths would Omicron actually cause by itself?
My understanding is that the South Africans topped out at a quite breathtaking 60% non-covid 'covid' admissions 'incidental' admissions. I wonder how close we'll get to that number?
As you say, it also skews the deaths number if it's anomalously high.
Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class
It is remarkable. As pointed out here, one of the few constants in Johnson's political career since Mayor of London days is his unhealthy closeness to property developers.
There is nowhere else to get the money from so the property developers (and anyone buying a new property from them in the next few years) will be paying the bill.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class
It is remarkable. As pointed out here, one of the few constants in Johnson's political career since Mayor of London days is his unhealthy closeness to property developers.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
It is interesting that the hospitalisations are fading almost as fast as the cases - not much of a lag at all..
Makes sense if a big chunk of them are people arriving with covid, not because of covid.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
The problem is the "with" or "due to" issue. As so many people have Omicron the deaths figure will stay high for a while. How many deaths would Omicron actually cause by itself?
My understanding is that the South Africans topped out at a quite breathtaking 60% non-covid 'covid' admissions 'incidental' admissions. I wonder how close we'll get to that number?
As you say, it also skews the deaths number if it's anomalously high.
We'll get a view of what the non-overlapping 14 day period for Omicron infections were this Friday, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere around 1/7 people had COVID in the last 28 days with something like 1/15 older people as well which means the dashboard number could be capturing a lot of incidental deaths at the moment.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
This is day of. It's still going up.
It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again....
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
Just got back from the cinema after watching The King's Man, absolutely brilliant, the dangers of Scottish Nationalism and the violence therein are a key plot point.
Just got back from the cinema after watching The King's Man, absolutely brilliant, the dangers of Scottish Nationalism and the violence therein are a key plot point.
BBC: 'Boris Johnson has refused to say whether he attended a Downing Street social event during the first lockdown, which may have broken Covid rules.
Asked if he had been at the outdoor drinks gathering on 20 May 2020, the PM said the event was "the subject of a proper investigation".'
What a tosser.
A proper investigation just like wot that wallpaper one was.
I think this one will be more forensic
We can say with certainty, I believe:
1. Boris Johnson didn't fool Lord Geidt for a second. He was an intelligence officer dealing with with Balkan mass murderers; 2. Lord Geidt saw no advantage in formally finding against Johnson. This would be tantamount to accusing Johnson of lying. Either Johnson would have to go or Geidt would have to resign in that case, and it wouldn't likely be Johnson. So he's sticking around.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
This is day of. It's still going up.
It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.
There is the repeated suggestion that Omicron is quite a bit "faster" than Delta, in terms of infection to illness.
Just got back from the cinema after watching The King's Man, absolutely brilliant, the dangers of Scottish Nationalism and the violence therein are a key plot point.
This could be an interesting fishing trip.
It is a fact, the villain wants to destroy England because the English have occupied Scotland for centuries.
Also big shout out to Tom Hollander, who plays King George V, Tsar Nicholas II, and Kaiser Wilhelm II in this film, an excellent WWI film as well.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
This is day of. It's still going up.
It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.
I found an ONS report saying 13,000 people died in the week ending 24 Dec. If Covid prevalence is one in 15 then that is 123 people a day dying who just happen to have Covid. Of course not all of them will have had a test, but it is potentially significant.
Just got back from the cinema after watching The King's Man, absolutely brilliant, the dangers of Scottish Nationalism and the violence therein are a key plot point.
This could be an interesting fishing trip.
1000lb test line (check) hook made from small anchor (check)
Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?
Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.
Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?
Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.
What about using Westminster Hall?
How about the UK government meets 4 days a week in HoC. Monday or Friday is for the English only MPs, who also serve as England's UKMPs. No additional elections or facilities required.
I think the neat solution, and desirable as it requires fewer politicians, is to make all the devolved Parliaments - including the English one - meet for 1-2 days a week and consist of the national contingents from the UK Parliament.
Imagine the resources that could be saved.
The devolved Parliaments are a bit of a dog's breakfast that needs significant reform, anyway.
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
He's not altogether wrong. I remember a new MP in 1997 (not me!) wondering how to vote in the first free vote that we've had. He asked his whip, who said with an ironical smile "I don't mind, vote however you like, dear boy!" The MP said desperately, "But you've got to tell me!"
Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
I've had a go at trying to seperate the died of/with (Using England specimen Jan 1st stats)
My conclusion is that there likely aren't many coincidental deaths at all, and that Covid is still very dangerous if you're over 85.
It's all calculated in good faith so if anyone finds any howling oversights please let me know.
Covid +ve, Tested +ve within prior 28 days, coincidental death 2.20
This is the vast majority of covid +ve deaths, covid highly likely had some effect. Covid +ve, Tested +ve within prior 28 days, covid a contributing factor 130.1
I would have thought this would be low - some care home residents maybe. Covid +ve, did not test +ve within prior 28 days, covid a contributing factor 14.02 Will be picked up by death certificate, but not 28 day stat Covid -ve (Within prior 28 days), covid was a contributing factor to death (Included within 14.02)
These are also coincidental Covid deaths, but they will not be picked up by the 28 day stat Covid +ve, did not test +ve within prior 28 days, coincidental death Unknown
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again....
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
It's good he admits it was a mistake, but it doesn't explain how he and the government made that mistake, especially when they were pretending they were not doing that very thing when they forced people to vote for it.
The simpler explanation is he would not have regarded it as a mistake if he had gotten away with it, and so in answer to the question it absolutely will happen again if they again think they can get away with it (rightly or not).
Just got back from the cinema after watching The King's Man, absolutely brilliant, the dangers of Scottish Nationalism and the violence therein are a key plot point.
It was a very confused movie, seeking both to be silly action and emotional and missing the mark. Curious the trailers did not lead on the maniacal Scottish nat as the villain though.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
Secondary pneumonia with the patient dieing say 40 days after initial Covid infection would be the sort of death recorded with death certs but not in the 28 day stat I think.
Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?
Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.
Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?
Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.
What about using Westminster Hall?
How about the UK government meets 4 days a week in HoC. Monday or Friday is for the English only MPs, who also serve as England's UKMPs. No additional elections or facilities required.
I think the neat solution, and desirable as it requires fewer politicians, is to make all the devolved Parliaments - including the English one - meet for 1-2 days a week and consist of the national contingents from the UK Parliament.
Imagine the resources that could be saved.
The devolved Parliaments are a bit of a dog's breakfast that needs significant reform, anyway.
Align powers / responsibilities at the same time.
Though I don't see BJ getting a round tuit.
Why would he? There is no interest in England, beyond theoretical discussions amongst politics geeks, in constitutional reform, and there's no political benefit to be had for the Prime Minister or his party in obsessing over the minutiae of the devolved settlements.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
And excess deaths, while not being explicitly covid, are likely a good measure too, and one that is better for international comparisons, given fundamentally different testing regimes.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
This is day of. It's still going up.
It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.
I found an ONS report saying 13,000 people died in the week ending 24 Dec. If Covid prevalence is one in 15 then that is 123 people a day dying who just happen to have Covid. Of course not all of them will have had a test, but it is potentially significant.
It's less than that because Covid cases skew towards younger people whereas death skews toward older people.
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
He's not altogether wrong. I remember a new MP in 1997 (not me!) wondering how to vote in the first free vote that we've had. He asked his whip, who said with an ironical smile "I don't mind, vote however you like, dear boy!" The MP said desperately, "But you've got to tell me!"
I don't really get that attitude. If you weren't able to pay attention to the debate, and you're free to vote how you like, just don't vote.
[Translated] The AP-HP makes public the first data on hospitalizations by variant.
Patients infected with #Omicron mainly go to conventional hospitalization rather than critical care (Omicron represents 54% of those admitted to HC and 19% of those admitted to SC at the end of December).
Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.
Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
It'd be honest, but make the UK look worse than it actually is.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
It'd be honest, but make the UK look worse than it actually is.
I would have thought it would break the other way but I'm far from sure.
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
He's not altogether wrong. I remember a new MP in 1997 (not me!) wondering how to vote in the first free vote that we've had. He asked his whip, who said with an ironical smile "I don't mind, vote however you like, dear boy!" The MP said desperately, "But you've got to tell me!"
I don't really get that attitude. If you weren't able to pay attention to the debate, and you're free to vote how you like, just don't vote.
I don't think the issue is not being able to pay attention necessarily. A vote may well be classed as free, but for all you know the whips and the bosses who wield them will still take note of if you are the wrong sort in such a vote. Find yourself mostly alone among a mass of the opposition and it being a free vote won't stop you facing consequences for getting it 'wrong'.
People say they don't care about something all the time, but the reality can be something else. A newbie may not know if the vote truly is a free one or not.
Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.
Not worth a huge amount, sadly. Please just open them with friends and family and drink them.
It was a very confused movie, seeking both to be silly action and emotional and missing the mark. Curious the trailers did not lead on the maniacal Scottish nat as the villain though.
After the way the Scot Nats behaved over the Robert the Bruce film you can understand why the trailers didn't lead on that.
An argument Cineworld not screening a film about Robert the Bruce in Scotland led to some Scottish Nationalists blaming the chain’s Israeli owners for the decision.
Cineworld was heavily criticised by Scottish Nationalists for not scheduling Robert the Bruce, a biopic about the famous leader starring Angus Macfayden.
A campaign was set up by to protest against the decision, which Mr Macfayden and a number of SNP MPs backed.
But some of those protesting began to question whether the decision not to screen the film had been made via the Israeli owners of Cineworld.
“I have just had a conversation with the Aberdeen branch manager”, one prominent Nationalist Twitter account tweeted.
“She told me she has been kept in the dark by HQ. The chief executive she believes took the descion [sic] he is based in Israel.”
The CEO of Cineworld is Moshe “Mooky” Greidinger, whose family had a controlling stake in Cinema City International, which Cineworld took over in 2014.
“Someone posted the Board members. Quite a few Israelis. Why would they want to influence a screening?” mused one Nationalist.
“Because they don’t want another sovereign state that supports Palestine”, another replied.
Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.
Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
It'd be honest, but make the UK look worse than it actually is.
28 days is used because of a rough balance between deaths-from-COVID-outside-28-days and deaths-with-COVID-but-not-of-COVID-inside-28-days.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
It'd be honest, but make the UK look worse than it actually is.
I would have thought it would break the other way but I'm far from sure.
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
It gives a quicker answer. Takes a lot longer to get the death certificate numbers and you can imagine if we switched now the conspiracy theorists would be all over it. Up to now its been seen as a reasonable approach (some will be wrong, although I don't know of any actually road traffic deaths that have been recorded as covid and I am sure it would have made the news), and some missed as they died on the 29th day, so its balanced. You can question if it will now not be as balanced with omicron and the wide infection levels that are not making people as sick, so the chance of an incidental covid death may have increased. We've seen two different calculations on here of how many it might be, with very different results, so its hard to say. My gut is we are probably seeing more incidental covid deaths, but not that many more, as the omicron case rises have been skewed to the young, who are less likely to die generally (of other things than covid).
Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class
Strong words from Gove, I'm genuinely impressed... so far.
We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.
The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...
It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
· 8m Replying to @PaulBrandITV Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
Isn't it that 28 days doesn't depend on a judgement - it's simply a factual question of whether they have had a diagnosis within 28 days. So it is more comparable over time and across regions.
These things depend on why you are measuring something. Often, consistency/comparability is more important than strict accuracy.
Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.
Not worth a huge amount, sadly. Please just open them with friends and family and drink them.
Thanks. I had not a clue. Assumed the Croft might be worth a bit being over 50 years old, but of course most things that are old don't necessarily get better. Might need lessons in port. No idea why I have never opened them as I like port.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
It'd be honest, but make the UK look worse than it actually is.
I would have thought it would break the other way but I'm far from sure.
Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate 173,509
The other obvious issue with headlining on the certificate deaths is they don't provide an up-to-date value for broadcasters and newspapers to hyperventilate over.
The weekly deaths by date registered are only complete up to Christmas Eve. The daily figures arranged by actual date of death are incomplete after December 6th.
*a little off topic *🐖 After Pope said too many petbabies you remember , they had dogbabies in my dad telegraph saying does the Pope have a point. I shared my master plan with my other half. We should have a teacup Pig. She was looking at me so heard me, but didn’t say anything. Maybe it was because she was drinking from a tea mug so got confused. That is a very miniature breed of pig I added. She took a long time but asked - what? In the Flat? Yes. I said. In the flat. Wilbur. She didn’t say anything. Then she put her headphones on and closed her eyes.
Those of you been in relationships longer than me. Do I take this as master plan back to drawing board already? My vision thing can see how nice it would be having little Wilbur to look after
Never said NO so you can always plead ignorance if it goes badly and blame her.
That’s true. LOL. Would be funny if he just appeared, and the look on her face when she finds him asleep on our bed (or chewing her headphones)
I appreciate teacup pigs get big in a year, but even a bigger Wilbur like this one my other half should love, like this picture (which looks a bit like her actually the one on left).
He would be neutered and I’ll soon have him potty trained and showered everyday. They are so intelligent I could get him to use the pot and pul the flush. He could even enjoy the sauna and shower time with me. They like to sweat they do.
Get one of the African pygmy hedgehogs, they look lovely , are small and not as prickly as the big UK ones.
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
· 8m Replying to @PaulBrandITV Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
Somewhat mind-boggling detail here: that argument the UKHSA has been making about the US's isolation period being different because it starts from a positive test rather than symptoms is... not true.
Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January
260.4
Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?
Does such data even exist?
Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....
Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)
Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...
I still don't understand this.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.
Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?
Isn't it that 28 days doesn't depend on a judgement - it's simply a factual question of whether they have had a diagnosis within 28 days. So it is more comparable over time and across regions.
These things depend on why you are measuring something. Often, consistency/comparability is more important than strict accuracy.
The argument, I think, is that very high case rates are skewing the figures now in a way they weren't before. I suspect however it's more an issue for hospitalisations than deaths. If you are ill enough to die, it's probably moot whether it was Covid or the other condition that finally finished you off. However if you are in hospital for a broken leg, the fact you also have Covid is a bit irrelevant.
Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January
260.4
Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
He's not altogether wrong. I remember a new MP in 1997 (not me!) wondering how to vote in the first free vote that we've had. He asked his whip, who said with an ironical smile "I don't mind, vote however you like, dear boy!" The MP said desperately, "But you've got to tell me!"
I don't really get that attitude. If you weren't able to pay attention to the debate, and you're free to vote how you like, just don't vote.
I don't think the issue is not being able to pay attention necessarily. A vote may well be classed as free, but for all you know the whips and the bosses who wield them will still take note of if you are the wrong sort in such a vote. Find yourself mostly alone among a mass of the opposition and it being a free vote won't stop you facing consequences for getting it 'wrong'.
People say they don't care about something all the time, but the reality can be something else. A newbie may not know if the vote truly is a free one or not.
Ugh, so the "no it's FINE, do whatever you like" game. Fuck that. If someone tells me it's a free vote, I'm not going to sit around playing mental 4D chess to work out what passive aggressive games might be underway. This is why I couldn't be an MP (well, there are 999 more reasons, but). I just couldn't stand voting for the wrong reasons, outsourcing my ethics to someone else's calculation. What a horrible job it must be.
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
This is day of. It's still going up.
It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.
I found an ONS report saying 13,000 people died in the week ending 24 Dec. If Covid prevalence is one in 15 then that is 123 people a day dying who just happen to have Covid. Of course not all of them will have had a test, but it is potentially significant.
It's less than that because Covid cases skew towards younger people whereas death skews toward older people.
It's probably the wrong calculation anyway. We won't know about whether most of them have Covid. If 2000/68000000 die every day that's only 4/150000 positive testees.
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
He's not altogether wrong. I remember a new MP in 1997 (not me!) wondering how to vote in the first free vote that we've had. He asked his whip, who said with an ironical smile "I don't mind, vote however you like, dear boy!" The MP said desperately, "But you've got to tell me!"
I don't really get that attitude. If you weren't able to pay attention to the debate, and you're free to vote how you like, just don't vote.
I don't think the issue is not being able to pay attention necessarily. A vote may well be classed as free, but for all you know the whips and the bosses who wield them will still take note of if you are the wrong sort in such a vote. Find yourself mostly alone among a mass of the opposition and it being a free vote won't stop you facing consequences for getting it 'wrong'.
People say they don't care about something all the time, but the reality can be something else. A newbie may not know if the vote truly is a free one or not.
Ugh, so the "no it's FINE, do whatever you like" game. Fuck that. If someone tells me it's a free vote, I'm not going to sit around playing mental 4D chess to work out what passive aggressive games might be underway. This is why I couldn't be an MP (well, there are 999 more reasons, but). I just couldn't stand voting for the wrong reasons, outsourcing my ethics to someone else's calculation. What a horrible job it must be.
I don't think it is unreasonable for an MP to trust in their party giving them directions on the smaller stuff, things they may not have the time to know everything about or just don't feel very strongly about and they trust in the party ideology (silly as that may be given how shifting that can be). But you need to have a bit of confidence in yourself too, and as you say no point to torturing yourself over free but not really free votes. If you cannot even manage that you definitely won't have the balls to do so on anything important, and we don't need MPs like that.
It's just not plausible that some people literally (or nearly) never vote against their own party line, human beings are not that consistent.
Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January
260.4
Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
· 8m Replying to @PaulBrandITV Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
· 8m Replying to @PaulBrandITV Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
Yep - Cummings had the date but he clearly didn't have the email otherwise he would have published it.
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
· 8m Replying to @PaulBrandITV Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
"proves over 100 staff..." Surely Downing Street knows better than to send mass emailings to a visible list of recipients?
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
· 8m Replying to @PaulBrandITV Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
"proves over 100 staff..." Surely Downing Street knows better than to send mass emailings to a visible list of recipients?
There was an arrogance in Boris Johnson's Downing Street that the rules apply?
I know, I am shocked as you are.
Plus, who organises a social do via email, you do it via WhatsApp.
Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January
260.4
Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.
Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well. Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so. MV beds - level(ish) Death - rising slowly.
I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.
The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.
This is day of. It's still going up.
It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.
I found an ONS report saying 13,000 people died in the week ending 24 Dec. If Covid prevalence is one in 15 then that is 123 people a day dying who just happen to have Covid. Of course not all of them will have had a test, but it is potentially significant.
It's less than that because Covid cases skew towards younger people whereas death skews toward older people.
It's probably the wrong calculation anyway. We won't know about whether most of them have Covid. If 2000/68000000 die every day that's only 4/150000 positive testees.
But on the other hand... people who die are probably more likely to have been tested for Covid. They certainly will if they have been admitted to hospital.
EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
· 8m Replying to @PaulBrandITV Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.
Whomever is leaking is unaware of the mantra that snitches get stitches.
Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January
260.4
Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
A clear demonstration that the Scots are the least freindly people in the UK. A dour breed
Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January
260.4
Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling
The broader point, however (and before this turns into an England v Scotland todger waving contest) is that, whether you use the dashboard figures or the ONS figures, there's nothing to suggest that Scotland has done any better during the Omicron wave by having additional restrictions. This, in turn, is important not because it permits us to criticise the Scottish Government, but because it suggests that the restrictions are largely or completely ineffectual against this variant.
And if the restrictions are no longer working then, of course...
(a) We know that we need to rely more on measures other than blanket restrictions in future, and (b) We have a better chance of getting rid of more of the existing rules more rapidly, and also of avoiding their making an unwelcome return in future
Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.
Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
He's not altogether wrong. I remember a new MP in 1997 (not me!) wondering how to vote in the first free vote that we've had. He asked his whip, who said with an ironical smile "I don't mind, vote however you like, dear boy!" The MP said desperately, "But you've got to tell me!"
I don't really get that attitude. If you weren't able to pay attention to the debate, and you're free to vote how you like, just don't vote.
I don't think the issue is not being able to pay attention necessarily. A vote may well be classed as free, but for all you know the whips and the bosses who wield them will still take note of if you are the wrong sort in such a vote. Find yourself mostly alone among a mass of the opposition and it being a free vote won't stop you facing consequences for getting it 'wrong'.
People say they don't care about something all the time, but the reality can be something else. A newbie may not know if the vote truly is a free one or not.
Ugh, so the "no it's FINE, do whatever you like" game. Fuck that. If someone tells me it's a free vote, I'm not going to sit around playing mental 4D chess to work out what passive aggressive games might be underway. This is why I couldn't be an MP (well, there are 999 more reasons, but). I just couldn't stand voting for the wrong reasons, outsourcing my ethics to someone else's calculation. What a horrible job it must be.
I don't think it is unreasonable for an MP to trust in their party giving them directions on the smaller stuff, things they may not have the time to know everything about or just don't feel very strongly about and they trust in the party ideology (silly as that may be given how shifting that can be). But you need to have a bit of confidence in yourself too, and as you say no point to torturing yourself over free but not really free votes. If you cannot even manage that you definitely won't have the balls to do so on anything important, and we don't need MPs like that.
It's just not plausible that some people literally (or nearly) never vote against their own party line, human beings are not that consistent.
The thing is, if you vote for something you're responsible for it. I'd hate to be on the hook for something and to have to justify it with so weak a reason as "I dunno I asked my mate and he said choose option A". It's up there with "I was only following orders" and "if I didn't someone else would have".
Comments
Westminster Voting Intention (10 Jan):
Labour 39% (+1)
Conservative 35% (–)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+2)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 3 Jan
Asked if he had been at the outdoor drinks gathering on 20 May 2020, the PM said the event was "the subject of a proper investigation".'
What a tosser.
With reporting day we might actually see a fair bit of catch up in England over the next few days as the testing system is able to catch up with the number of samples. By the end of this week the lag in the system might have reduced a lot so we could see some rises in reported cases but still falling by specimen date as the 6 day backfill is lumped in with a reduction in reporting lag to 3 days.
The consensus is the 7 day average figure, and there was a big drop when the figures from the 29th Dec moved out of the seven day figures; there will be another one in a few days when the figures from 3rd Jan drop out.
The more excitable of us look at more granularity than 7 day averages - if we look at day to day figures (by day of test), they are dropping like a stone. These figures are subject to much greater vagaries of course.
This is because journalists are particularly fascinated by Inner London for some strange reason.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/07/world/asia/f-sionil-jose-dead.html
An appreciation of him here:
https://fallows.substack.com/p/on-the-road-with-rabelais-remembering
The examiners never noticed. I quietly corrected both errors in the final version.
*well, as far as I know
Remains to be seen if it happens of course
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/09/any-depths-to--johnsonism-must-be-laid-bare
non-covid 'covid' admissions'incidental' admissions. I wonder how close we'll get to that number?As you say, it also skews the deaths number if it's anomalously high.
Ministers able to plough their own furrow?
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1480589458613456898?s=20
Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"
Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1480590261474541571
1. Boris Johnson didn't fool Lord Geidt for a second. He was an intelligence officer dealing with with Balkan mass murderers;
2. Lord Geidt saw no advantage in formally finding against Johnson. This would be tantamount to accusing Johnson of lying. Either Johnson would have to go or Geidt would have to resign in that case, and it wouldn't likely be Johnson. So he's sticking around.
Also big shout out to Tom Hollander, who plays King George V, Tsar Nicholas II, and Kaiser Wilhelm II in this film, an excellent WWI film as well.
hook made from small anchor (check)
Imagine the resources that could be saved.
The devolved Parliaments are a bit of a dog's breakfast that needs significant reform, anyway.
Align powers / responsibilities at the same time.
Though I don't see BJ getting a round tuit.
Developers don't have a vote.
Though it may have been left too late politically imo, and the populist yammerers will now start yammering about the next lot of lower flats.
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (10 Jan):
Approve: 30% (+5)
Disapprove: 33% (+1)
Net: -3% (+4)
Changes +/- 3 Jan
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-january-2022/
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1480592797212237828?s=20
Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).
Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XqoZNL0hHBUCLWxPloT6449hLK_695jkD7al65GMyLg/edit?usp=sharing
My conclusion is that there likely aren't many coincidental deaths at all, and that Covid is still very dangerous if you're over 85.
It's all calculated in good faith so if anyone finds any howling oversights please let me know.
Covid +ve, Tested +ve within prior 28 days, coincidental death 2.20
This is the vast majority of covid +ve deaths, covid highly likely had some effect. Covid +ve, Tested +ve within prior 28 days, covid a contributing factor 130.1
I would have thought this would be low - some care home residents maybe. Covid +ve, did not test +ve within prior 28 days, covid a contributing factor 14.02
Will be picked up by death certificate, but not 28 day stat Covid -ve (Within prior 28 days), covid was a contributing factor to death (Included within 14.02)
These are also coincidental Covid deaths, but they will not be picked up by the 28 day stat Covid +ve, did not test +ve within prior 28 days, coincidental death Unknown
The simpler explanation is he would not have regarded it as a mistake if he had gotten away with it, and so in answer to the question it absolutely will happen again if they again think they can get away with it (rightly or not). It was a very confused movie, seeking both to be silly action and emotional and missing the mark. Curious the trailers did not lead on the maniacal Scottish nat as the villain though.
From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.
I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?
[Translated] The AP-HP makes public the first data on hospitalizations by variant.
Patients infected with #Omicron mainly go to conventional hospitalization rather than critical care (Omicron represents 54% of those admitted to HC and 19% of those admitted to SC at the end of December).
https://twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1480592674956709895?s=20
People say they don't care about something all the time, but the reality can be something else. A newbie may not know if the vote truly is a free one or not.
An argument Cineworld not screening a film about Robert the Bruce in Scotland led to some Scottish Nationalists blaming the chain’s Israeli owners for the decision.
Cineworld was heavily criticised by Scottish Nationalists for not scheduling Robert the Bruce, a biopic about the famous leader starring Angus Macfayden.
A campaign was set up by to protest against the decision, which Mr Macfayden and a number of SNP MPs backed.
But some of those protesting began to question whether the decision not to screen the film had been made via the Israeli owners of Cineworld.
“I have just had a conversation with the Aberdeen branch manager”, one prominent Nationalist Twitter account tweeted.
“She told me she has been kept in the dark by HQ. The chief executive she believes took the descion [sic] he is based in Israel.”
The CEO of Cineworld is Moshe “Mooky” Greidinger, whose family had a controlling stake in Cinema City International, which Cineworld took over in 2014.
“Someone posted the Board members. Quite a few Israelis. Why would they want to influence a screening?” mused one Nationalist.
“Because they don’t want another sovereign state that supports Palestine”, another replied.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/scottish-nationalists-blame-israeli-ceo-for-cineworld-decision-not-to-show-robert-the-bruce-film-1.485991
Otherwise you'd wait forever for death data....
Deaths within 28 days of positive test
150,230
Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate
173,509
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769/photo/1
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596423947259904
You can question if it will now not be as balanced with omicron and the wide infection levels that are not making people as sick, so the chance of an incidental covid death may have increased.
We've seen two different calculations on here of how many it might be, with very different results, so its hard to say. My gut is we are probably seeing more incidental covid deaths, but not that many more, as the omicron case rises have been skewed to the young, who are less likely to die generally (of other things than covid).
We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.
The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...
It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769
EXCL: Email obtained by
@itvnews
proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.
We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”
https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown
·
8m
Replying to
@PaulBrandITV
Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.
Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.
These things depend on why you are measuring something. Often, consistency/comparability is more important than strict accuracy.
The weekly deaths by date registered are only complete up to Christmas Eve. The daily figures arranged by actual date of death are incomplete after December 6th.
Somewhat mind-boggling detail here: that argument the UKHSA has been making about the US's isolation period being different because it starts from a positive test rather than symptoms is... not true.
Oh dear, dear me.
That is the data on 9th January
This is why I couldn't be an MP (well, there are 999 more reasons, but). I just couldn't stand voting for the wrong reasons, outsourcing my ethics to someone else's calculation. What a horrible job it must be.
It's just not plausible that some people literally (or nearly) never vote against their own party line, human beings are not that consistent.
05-01-2022 2,018.8
04-01-2022 2,082.3
03-01-2022 2,094.8
02-01-2022 2,089.7
01-01-2022 1,957
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date
England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling
05-01-2022 1,862.9
04-01-2022 1,940.6
03-01-2022 1,851.3
02-01-2022 1,799.5
01-01-2022 1,726.6
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date
I know, I am shocked as you are.
Plus, who organises a social do via email, you do it via WhatsApp.
And if the restrictions are no longer working then, of course...
(a) We know that we need to rely more on measures other than blanket restrictions in future, and
(b) We have a better chance of getting rid of more of the existing rules more rapidly, and also of avoiding their making an unwelcome return in future