Starmer has better than a 13.9% chance of being next PM – politicalbetting.com

dixiedean said:

Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

It is remarkable. As pointed out here, one of the few constants in Johnson's political career since Mayor of London days is his unhealthy closeness to property developers.

Remains to be seen if it happens of course

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/09/any-depths-to--johnsonism-must-be-laid-bare

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RedfieldWilton

Westminster Voting Intention (10 Jan):

Labour 39% (+1)
Conservative 35% (–)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+2)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

Changes +/- 3 Jan

That one's a surprise, particularly the Lib Dem rise. I expected a gentle subsiding of VI towards 9-10% now the NS result is fading from memory.

The official w-o-w measure on the dashboard now shows a rise of just 1%. It's quite possible that will turn green this week, and show a fall. Which would be quite remarkable, and much earlier than expected if it is sustained. Still, demain est un autre jour.

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

This is day of. It's still going up.

FF43 said:

dixiedean said:

Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

It is remarkable. As pointed out here, one of the few constants in Johnson's political career since Mayor of London days is his unhealthy closeness to property developers.

Remains to be seen if it happens of course

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/09/any-depths-to--johnsonism-must-be-laid-bare

There is nowhere else to get the money from so the property developers (and anyone buying a new property from them in the next few years) will be paying the bill.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SandyRentool said:

BBC: 'Boris Johnson has refused to say whether he attended a Downing Street social event during the first lockdown, which may have broken Covid rules.

Asked if he had been at the outdoor drinks gathering on 20 May 2020, the PM said the event was "the subject of a proper investigation".'

What a tosser.

A proper investigation just like wot that wallpaper one was.

I think this one will be more forensic

You mean, like it was real Prosecco or only imitation Prosecco from Kent?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SandyRentool said:

BBC: 'Boris Johnson has refused to say whether he attended a Downing Street social event during the first lockdown, which may have broken Covid rules.

Asked if he had been at the outdoor drinks gathering on 20 May 2020, the PM said the event was "the subject of a proper investigation".'

What a tosser.

A proper investigation just like wot that wallpaper one was.

I think this one will be more forensic

So Keir Starmer is doing it?

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Anabobazina said:

NerysHughes said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

The problem is the "with" or "due to" issue. As so many people have Omicron the deaths figure will stay high for a while. How many deaths would Omicron actually cause by itself?

My understanding is that the South Africans topped out at a quite breathtaking 60% non-covid 'covid' admissions 'incidental' admissions. I wonder how close we'll get to that number?

As you say, it also skews the deaths number if it's anomalously high.

We'll get a view of what the non-overlapping 14 day period for Omicron infections were this Friday, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere around 1/7 people had COVID in the last 28 days with something like 1/15 older people as well which means the dashboard number could be capturing a lot of incidental deaths at the moment.

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

If Scotland could keep this run of 2 days of >40% week on week reporting day falls going that would be great thanks.

Just got back from the cinema after watching The King's Man, absolutely brilliant, the dangers of Scottish Nationalism and the violence therein are a key plot point.

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

This is day of. It's still going up.

It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.

There is the repeated suggestion that Omicron is quite a bit "faster" than Delta, in terms of infection to illness.

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

This is day of. It's still going up.

It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.

I found an ONS report saying 13,000 people died in the week ending 24 Dec. If Covid prevalence is one in 15 then that is 123 people a day dying who just happen to have Covid. Of course not all of them will have had a test, but it is potentially significant.

Applicant said:

Fairliered said:

Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?

Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.

TimT said:

Fairliered said:

Applicant said:

Fairliered said:

Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?

Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.

What about using Westminster Hall?

How about the UK government meets 4 days a week in HoC. Monday or Friday is for the English only MPs, who also serve as England's UKMPs. No additional elections or facilities required.

I think the neat solution, and desirable as it requires fewer politicians, is to make all the devolved Parliaments - including the English one - meet for 1-2 days a week and consist of the national contingents from the UK Parliament.

Imagine the resources that could be saved.

The devolved Parliaments are a bit of a dog's breakfast that needs significant reform, anyway.

Align powers / responsibilities at the same time.

Though I don't see BJ getting a round tuit.

dixiedean said:

Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

Is this the cladding thing?

Developers don't have a vote.

Though it may have been left too late politically imo, and the populist yammerers will now start yammering about the next lot of lower flats.

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

I've had a go at trying to seperate the died of/with (Using England specimen Jan 1st stats)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XqoZNL0hHBUCLWxPloT6449hLK_695jkD7al65GMyLg/edit?usp=sharing

My conclusion is that there likely aren't many coincidental deaths at all, and that Covid is still very dangerous if you're over 85.

It's all calculated in good faith so if anyone finds any howling oversights please let me know.

Covid +ve, Tested +ve within prior 28 days, coincidental death 2.20

This is the vast majority of covid +ve deaths, covid highly likely had some effect. Covid +ve, Tested +ve within prior 28 days, covid a contributing factor 130.1

I would have thought this would be low - some care home residents maybe. Covid +ve, did not test +ve within prior 28 days, covid a contributing factor 14.02
Will be picked up by death certificate, but not 28 day stat Covid -ve (Within prior 28 days), covid was a contributing factor to death (Included within 14.02)

These are also coincidental Covid deaths, but they will not be picked up by the 28 day stat Covid +ve, did not test +ve within prior 28 days, coincidental death Unknown

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

I still don't understand this.

From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.

I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

I still don't understand this.

From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.

I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?

We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.

MattW said:

Applicant said:

Fairliered said:

Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?

Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.

TimT said:

Fairliered said:

Applicant said:

Fairliered said:

Any reason why England only legislation can’t be conducted on Monday and Tuesday, with UK wide legislation conducted on Wednesday, Thursday on Friday?

Having an English parliament using the HoC facilities? It's possible, but you'd still have to elect a separate load of Members of the English Parliament (yeah, that needs a better acronym) otherwise the Scottish separatists would endlessly whinge about their MPs being second class.

What about using Westminster Hall?

How about the UK government meets 4 days a week in HoC. Monday or Friday is for the English only MPs, who also serve as England's UKMPs. No additional elections or facilities required.

I think the neat solution, and desirable as it requires fewer politicians, is to make all the devolved Parliaments - including the English one - meet for 1-2 days a week and consist of the national contingents from the UK Parliament.

Imagine the resources that could be saved.

The devolved Parliaments are a bit of a dog's breakfast that needs significant reform, anyway.

Align powers / responsibilities at the same time.

Though I don't see BJ getting a round tuit.

Why would he? There is no interest in England, beyond theoretical discussions amongst politics geeks, in constitutional reform, and there's no political benefit to be had for the Prime Minister or his party in obsessing over the minutiae of the devolved settlements.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

I still don't understand this.

From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.

I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?

We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.

And excess deaths, while not being explicitly covid, are likely a good measure too, and one that is better for international comparisons, given fundamentally different testing regimes.

Encouraging evidence from France:

[Translated] The AP-HP makes public the first data on hospitalizations by variant.

Patients infected with #Omicron mainly go to conventional hospitalization rather than critical care (Omicron represents 54% of those admitted to HC and 19% of those admitted to SC at the end of December).

https://twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1480592674956709895?s=20

Stocky said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

I still don't understand this.

From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.

I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?

We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.

Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?

It'd be honest, but make the UK look worse than it actually is.

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

Let's vary Stocky's puzzle. Same scenario except there's just the one bag!

A: 2 dips and win if you pick green with either.
B: 1 dip and win if it's either green or yellow.

B is still a 50% chance of winning obvs.

What is A now?

Bit desperate tbh to try to show you know your maths. We never doubted you.

"maths" - lol.

Ouch. Please stop digging. You went to Imperial IIRC; you have nothing to prove.

What's wrong with Imperial??

Exactly a 454g of flesh just ain't right.

Why not? It's measured in grams?

Farooq said:

NickPalmer said:

Scott_xP said:

Interesting to hear a Tory member of the procedure cttee (Aaron Bell) refusing to let the Owen Paterson debacle lie - he asks Jacob Rees-Mogg if govt was wrong to take a view on House business and what could stop it happening again

Rees-Mogg says on the Paterson motion: "I got it wrong... I conflated the specific case with concerns that were more generally held and that was a mistake"

Aaron Bell asks if govt would whip House matters in the future and Rees-Mogg suggests "many Members quite welcome the govt taking a view... even when there's a free vote it's not unknown for Members to ask, 'which way should I go'"

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1480590261474541571

He's not altogether wrong. I remember a new MP in 1997 (not me!) wondering how to vote in the first free vote that we've had. He asked his whip, who said with an ironical smile "I don't mind, vote however you like, dear boy!" The MP said desperately, "But you've got to tell me!"

I don't really get that attitude. If you weren't able to pay attention to the debate, and you're free to vote how you like, just don't vote.

I don't think the issue is not being able to pay attention necessarily. A vote may well be classed as free, but for all you know the whips and the bosses who wield them will still take note of if you are the wrong sort in such a vote. Find yourself mostly alone among a mass of the opposition and it being a free vote won't stop you facing consequences for getting it 'wrong'.

People say they don't care about something all the time, but the reality can be something else. A newbie may not know if the vote truly is a free one or not.

kle4 said:

It was a very confused movie, seeking both to be silly action and emotional and missing the mark. Curious the trailers did not lead on the maniacal Scottish nat as the villain though.

After the way the Scot Nats behaved over the Robert the Bruce film you can understand why the trailers didn't lead on that.

An argument Cineworld not screening a film about Robert the Bruce in Scotland led to some Scottish Nationalists blaming the chain’s Israeli owners for the decision.

Cineworld was heavily criticised by Scottish Nationalists for not scheduling Robert the Bruce, a biopic about the famous leader starring Angus Macfayden.

A campaign was set up by to protest against the decision, which Mr Macfayden and a number of SNP MPs backed.

But some of those protesting began to question whether the decision not to screen the film had been made via the Israeli owners of Cineworld.

“I have just had a conversation with the Aberdeen branch manager”, one prominent Nationalist Twitter account tweeted.

“She told me she has been kept in the dark by HQ. The chief executive she believes took the descion [sic] he is based in Israel.”

The CEO of Cineworld is Moshe “Mooky” Greidinger, whose family had a controlling stake in Cinema City International, which Cineworld took over in 2014.

“Someone posted the Board members. Quite a few Israelis. Why would they want to influence a screening?” mused one Nationalist.

“Because they don’t want another sovereign state that supports Palestine”, another replied.

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/scottish-nationalists-blame-israeli-ceo-for-cineworld-decision-not-to-show-robert-the-bruce-film-1.485991

Pulpstar said:

Stocky said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

I still don't understand this.

From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.

I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?

We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.

Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?

It'd be honest, but make the UK look worse than it actually is.

28 days is used because of a rough balance between deaths-from-COVID-outside-28-days and deaths-with-COVID-but-not-of-COVID-inside-28-days.

Otherwise you'd wait forever for death data....

EXCL: Email obtained by @itvnews proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769/photo/1

Stocky said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

I still don't understand this.

From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.

I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?

We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.

Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?

It gives a quicker answer. Takes a lot longer to get the death certificate numbers and you can imagine if we switched now the conspiracy theorists would be all over it. Up to now its been seen as a reasonable approach (some will be wrong, although I don't know of any actually road traffic deaths that have been recorded as covid and I am sure it would have made the news), and some missed as they died on the 29th day, so its balanced.
You can question if it will now not be as balanced with omicron and the wide infection levels that are not making people as sick, so the chance of an incidental covid death may have increased.
We've seen two different calculations on here of how many it might be, with very different results, so its hard to say. My gut is we are probably seeing more incidental covid deaths, but not that many more, as the omicron case rises have been skewed to the young, who are less likely to die generally (of other things than covid).

Love to know who ITV News' source is

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

EXCL: Email obtained by
@itvnews
proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

·
8m
Replying to
@PaulBrandITV
Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

TOPPING said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth a huge amount, sadly. Please just open them with friends and family and drink them.

Thanks. I had not a clue. Assumed the Croft might be worth a bit being over 50 years old, but of course most things that are old don't necessarily get better. Might need lessons in port. No idea why I have never opened them as I like port.

MoonRabbit said:

malcolmg said:

MoonRabbit said:

*a little off topic *🐖
After Pope said too many petbabies you remember , they had dogbabies in my dad telegraph saying does the Pope have a point.
I shared my master plan with my other half. We should have a teacup Pig.
She was looking at me so heard me, but didn’t say anything. Maybe it was because she was drinking from a tea mug so got confused.
That is a very miniature breed of pig I added.
She took a long time but asked - what? In the Flat?
Yes. I said. In the flat. Wilbur.
She didn’t say anything. Then she put her headphones on and closed her eyes.

Those of you been in relationships longer than me. Do I take this as master plan back to drawing board already? My vision thing can see how nice it would be having little Wilbur to look after

Never said NO so you can always plead ignorance if it goes badly and blame her.

That’s true. LOL. Would be funny if he just appeared, and the look on her face when she finds him asleep on our bed (or chewing her headphones)

I appreciate teacup pigs get big in a year, but even a bigger Wilbur like this one my other half should love, like this picture (which looks a bit like her actually the one on left).

He would be neutered and I’ll soon have him potty trained and showered everyday. They are so intelligent I could get him to use the pot and pul the flush. He could even enjoy the sauna and shower time with me. They like to sweat they do.

Get one of the African pygmy hedgehogs, they look lovely , are small and not as prickly as the big UK ones.

@hzeffman

Somewhat mind-boggling detail here: that argument the UKHSA has been making about the US's isolation period being different because it starts from a positive test rather than symptoms is... not true.


Oh dear, dear me.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Stocky said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stocky said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

Anabobazina said:

TimT said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

What happens if you redo the curve to eliminate 'died with' and chart only 'died of'?

Does such data even exist?

Not really. Death certificates will list COVID in the "causes" section - but may well have multiple causes. Medically it is very hard to tell, often, exactly what of bunch of different conditions was a *singular cause*. As opposed to several things that happened all at once....

Would "was on the way to the covid test centre, when run over by a bus" be a covid mention on the death certificate? (Asking for a friend...)

Would a positive COVID test be recorded against such a death? - down to the doctor filling in the death certificate. Probably wouldn't put it under causes.... But the deaths are counted for certificates "mentioning" COVID...

I still don't understand this.

From questioning this issue before *I think* what is on the death certificate is a different matter to what is included in the Covid death stats. Foxy confirmed that someone dying of Covid would be listed as such on the death certificate whether or not death happened within 28 days of a positive test. E.g a death OF Covid 100 days after a positive test would be given as Covid on the death certificate but would NOT be included in the Covid death stats.

I think that must be right or what would be the point of the 28 days?

We have two measures of COVID deaths, deaths within 28 days and deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate.

Why are we still pursuing with the 28 days thing? Why not just report Covid deaths as per the death certificate?

Isn't it that 28 days doesn't depend on a judgement - it's simply a factual question of whether they have had a diagnosis within 28 days. So it is more comparable over time and across regions.

These things depend on why you are measuring something. Often, consistency/comparability is more important than strict accuracy.

The argument, I think, is that very high case rates are skewing the figures now in a way they weren't before. I suspect however it's more an issue for hospitalisations than deaths. If you are ill enough to die, it's probably moot whether it was Covid or the other condition that finally finished you off. However if you are in hospital for a broken leg, the fact you also have Covid is a bit irrelevant.

Pulpstar said:

JohnLilburne said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

COVID summary

Cases - Are rising (some missing data from the regions), but R is plunging towards 1.0. North East is still seeing more of the wave, but that is beginning to fade as well.
Admissions - Are bouncing around, but R is heading downward. North East is the area seeing a definite rise still - but is the only region in England to do so.
MV beds - level(ish)
Death - rising slowly.

I suspect the deaths picture is still very skewed by Christmas reporting lags because the underlying trend, smoothed over a couple of weeks, has definitely been down (from around 130 per day to closer to 80-90). I also suspect - though can't be sure - that a lot of the reported deaths will be Delta still.

The stats on Omicron severity as well as the ventilated patient data suggest to me that deaths should continue to fall as Delta patients leave the system.

This is day of. It's still going up.

It's an odd bump around Christmas - from largely flat until around the 26th - especially as if we assume a lag between infection and death of 14-16 days, then this was only at the start of Omicron even in London. If it's a real death increase then it's coming way ahead of what you would expect from hospitalisation or ICU stats. Perhaps as suggested there could be a "with" vs "of" effect especially if hospital-acquired infections were rife around Christmas time.

I found an ONS report saying 13,000 people died in the week ending 24 Dec. If Covid prevalence is one in 15 then that is 123 people a day dying who just happen to have Covid. Of course not all of them will have had a test, but it is potentially significant.

It's less than that because Covid cases skew towards younger people whereas death skews toward older people.

It's probably the wrong calculation anyway. We won't know about whether most of them have Covid. If 2000/68000000 die every day that's only 4/150000 positive testees.

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 2,018.8
04-01-2022 2,082.3
03-01-2022 2,094.8
02-01-2022 2,089.7
01-01-2022 1,957

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 1,862.9
04-01-2022 1,940.6
03-01-2022 1,851.3
02-01-2022 1,799.5
01-01-2022 1,726.6

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Love to know who ITV News' source is

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

EXCL: Email obtained by
@itvnews
proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

·
8m
Replying to
@PaulBrandITV
Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?

Yep - Cummings had the date but he clearly didn't have the email otherwise he would have published it.

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Love to know who ITV News' source is

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

EXCL: Email obtained by
@itvnews
proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

·
8m
Replying to
@PaulBrandITV
Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?

"proves over 100 staff..." Surely Downing Street knows better than to send mass emailings to a visible list of recipients?

There was an arrogance in Boris Johnson's Downing Street that the rules apply?

I know, I am shocked as you are.

Plus, who organises a social do via email, you do it via WhatsApp.

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Stuartinromford said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Love to know who ITV News' source is

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

EXCL: Email obtained by
@itvnews
proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

·
8m
Replying to
@PaulBrandITV
Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?

It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.

Whomever is leaking is unaware of the mantra that snitches get stitches.

Malmesbury said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 2,018.8
04-01-2022 2,082.3
03-01-2022 2,094.8
02-01-2022 2,089.7
01-01-2022 1,957

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 1,862.9
04-01-2022 1,940.6
03-01-2022 1,851.3
02-01-2022 1,799.5
01-01-2022 1,726.6

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

The broader point, however (and before this turns into an England v Scotland todger waving contest) is that, whether you use the dashboard figures or the ONS figures, there's nothing to suggest that Scotland has done any better during the Omicron wave by having additional restrictions. This, in turn, is important not because it permits us to criticise the Scottish Government, but because it suggests that the restrictions are largely or completely ineffectual against this variant.

And if the restrictions are no longer working then, of course...

(a) We know that we need to rely more on measures other than blanket restrictions in future, and
(b) We have a better chance of getting rid of more of the existing rules more rapidly, and also of avoiding their making an unwelcome return in future

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Hi Malc.

That is the data on 9th January

G, on 10th Jan I see 116K in England and 11K in Scotland with 77 deaths versus zero, just to compare to your subsample, should I deduce from that that English freedoms are a big mistake
PS: None of them can claim to have made a good job of it , past and present.
PPS: G not being narky , just don't think any of them have a real clue or have done well.

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

Strong words from Gove, I'm genuinely impressed... so far.

We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.

The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...

It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.

He will do square root of zero other than bump his gums. Trying to be seen to actually be doing something whilst doing F all, where has he been all these years since Grenfell.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuartinromford said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

eek said:

Love to know who ITV News' source is

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

EXCL: Email obtained by
@itvnews
proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

·
8m
Replying to
@PaulBrandITV
Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?

It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.

Whomever is leaking is unaware of the mantra that snitches get stitches.

'Whoever'?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins

pigeon said:

Malmesbury said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 2,018.8
04-01-2022 2,082.3
03-01-2022 2,094.8
02-01-2022 2,089.7
01-01-2022 1,957

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 1,862.9
04-01-2022 1,940.6
03-01-2022 1,851.3
02-01-2022 1,799.5
01-01-2022 1,726.6

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

The broader point, however (and before this turns into an England v Scotland todger waving contest) is that, whether you use the dashboard figures or the ONS figures, there's nothing to suggest that Scotland has done any better during the Omicron wave by having additional restrictions. This, in turn, is important not because it permits us to criticise the Scottish Government, but because it suggests that the restrictions are largely or completely ineffectual against this variant.

And if the restrictions are no longer working then, of course...

(a) We know that we need to rely more on measures other than blanket restrictions in future, and
(b) We have a better chance of getting rid of more of the existing rules more rapidly, and also of avoiding their making an unwelcome return in future

There have been no restrictions other than night clubs and large sports events. The amount of people affected by those would be miniscule so it is splitting hairs in any event.

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

Remember the Telegraph headline:

Paul Nuki
@PaulNuki
THREAD 1/10
I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

There is no lockdown in Scotland, you are deluded.