Support for Liz Truss fading in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
Support for Liz Truss fading in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
With just the possibility that Boris Johnson might not survive the year there continues to be a fair amount of interest in the next leader betting market on the betting exchanges.
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Employees have been made to put up with crap wages and below inflation raises (i.e. real terms cuts) for many years by both governments and private sector employers pleading poverty and the need to maximise taxpayer/shareholder value. Perhaps this year we'll finally see patience snapping?
In my case, our firm offered us yet another stingy deal last year, pleading IIRC the need to invest and throw cash at the shareholders. That only just got past the union ballot. This year I expect the union to dig its heels in and demand an above inflation settlement, and if that means 8% or 10% then that's what I expect my employer to cough up. If that's not forthcoming I will vote to strike.
The Netherlands has been in a hard lockdown since December 19th, yet cases have been steadily increasing since the 28th (i.e. approximately the same time as Omicron became dominant in the country.) At this stage, it looks a lot like all the suffering of lockdown has achieved is to delay the Omicron wave by about two-and-a-half weeks relative to the UK trajectory. It would appear that the experiment has failed.
Details available here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
That's like an England win, from where I am sitting.
And Good Morning all. Some relief in part of the Cole household that my hospital visit of yesterday seems to have worked out well. Now we wait to see whether Mrs C's GP visit will work out well. Hre hospital visit of Tuesday was OK.
The problem we have is that these visits are also of benefit to the local taxi companies!
England is taking the right approach here, with pretty much everyone vaccinated there’s little left that can be done except to isolate the vulnerable.
Even former Welsh rugby internationals are now wanting to play in England, rather than an empty Cardiff stadium https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2022/01/06/jonathan-davies-exclusive-move-wales-six-nations-home-games/
Snicko, however, showed a noise just after the ball passed the bat. The problem is that if Wood's foot hits the floor as the ball passes the bat... well that's going to make a noise too.
It's perfectly possible he feathered it, and it simply didn't show up on hotspot. But it's also perfectly possible the noise was something other than the ball hitting the bat,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YetpSUbhrUI
At least I saw Johnny score his ton.
As for China and Taiwan, whether China is successful there rather depends on whether you think this is the Chinese Century.
I look at the foreign policy behaviour of China and Russia and see a lashing out from positions of severe and terminal domestic weakness. The trouble is that the West isn’t in good shape either.
China has always been prepared to play the long game with everything it does. The CCP is not slaughtering the Uighers, it’s slowly and patiently tilting the demographic trends its way and dismantling the Uigher cultural heritage in favour of Hanification. Equally the policy with Taiwan has always been similar. Steady as she goes. It’s blown of course recently but a growing economic blockade of the island would do the trick eventually.
Because does the West really have the strength and solidarity to do much about it? Well for starters it’s not going to sink a Chinese carrier group over it.
Someone mentioned the selective default on bonds held by the Chinese government. Ok. But what’s the worth of the assets (both physical and IP) held by corporate America in China? And corporate Europe for that matter? Are we prepared to switch off exports to China? Penury for Germany lies down that road. And switch off imports?? No.
Only the really simple minded should by now not have realised the mortal danger for Western society to be so economically interdependent on China, and specifically energy dependent on Russia. You’d like to think power brokers in the West are quietly figuring out how to undo it, piece by piece. And reminding Xi that all their fates are tied together. But we all know they’re not.
So where does that leave us? At a guess, in a period where it looks like the globe is tilting on its axis eastwards and obituaries will be written for Western democracy and Pax Americana. And at a hope, shortly thereafter in a new era where the innovation and optimism of the Western system puts us back on course as the contradictions of the autocrats implode.
Might not work out that way though. We might be seeing the decay of all the great empires simultaneously with civilisation about to enter a sustained period of regression in technology, prosperity and population. I’d be tempted to give that scenario greater odds than a global Pax Sinica frankly. All fascinating viewing from those UAPs no doubt.
The debts of Evergrande and the other construction giants are truly massive. China has been running a large surplus for a long time (somewhat smaller of late) and the state has staggering resources available to it. But this will make 2008 look like a passing zephyr compared to a hurricane as the debts of the construction giants threaten systemic failure in the banking sector.
None of this makes China less of a threat, of course. Indeed it probably increases the risk of something foolish involving Taiwan. It is too early to say whether this is the China century or not but there is no doubt at all that world history is now being shaped in the Pacific.
Australia has to bat again, so I don't see how they can win by an innings.
Off for a booster fairly shortly. No idea if I'll have to queue outside... hoping not, as it'll be 1C feel likes -4C with a 50/50 chance of snowfall.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/07/something-wrong-something-good-taiwan-grapples-with-remembering-chiang-kai-shek
The parallels between S Korea and Taiwan - both colonial oppressed for decades by the Japanese, and both US maintained, economically successful but repressive dictatorships which transitioned to democracy in the 80s - are interesting.
It’ll be the same ‘innings defeat’ as the one in the second Test, where we can’t get past their first innings score in total.
Absent an inspiring Democrat who wins big enough to render manipulation irrelevant, the odds are on a Trump 'win' in 2024 even if he loses.
Not sure what to feel about that.
Looking at the Scotland data, it roughly tracks that across RUK (in hospital & cases). So are we also on a worse case scenario for UK?
I begs the question of why we didn't lock down harder yesterday (not that I agree with that).
Edit: and what the point was of our extra restrictions up here. I'm coming to the conclusion (based on Dutch experience) that you either go big or go home when it comes to NPIs.
So, in summary: a massive pain in the arse, particularly over Christmas, but lacking the kind of hard restrictions on household mixing that might really have helped to stop the spread. Most of the pain, with limited efficacy.
(I agree on the England approach being the right one here)
Edit: Also, anecdotally, much reduced compliance compared to previous lockdowns
When the Chinese built seven massive military bases on reclaimed reefs to dominate the South China Sea the West did nothing except buy more iPhones and sell them more McLarens.
Taiwan are fucked.
Anyway, I am off. Play nicely, everyone.
Novak Djokovic not being held ‘captive’ and free to leave whenever he chooses, Australia says
Serbia’s foreign ministry claims the world No 1 was ‘lured to travel to Australia in order to be humiliated’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/07/australian-open-players-given-exemptions-similar-to-novak-djokovic-under-investigation
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-masks-in-schools-offer-little-benefit-study-finds-63958pgr2
In the old days (say 2007), apart from a few small fields, there were exactly three places Europe got natural gas from: Norway, the UK (which was in serious decline) and Russia.
Now, the UK has disappeared, but the gas supply situation has completely changed. If you were Centrica in 2007, and you wanted to enter into a gas supply contract, there was Statoil in Norway and Gazprom in Russia... and that chap from BG who was jumping up and down and gesticulating about LNG, but what did he know?
Fourteen years later, the US has gone from natural gas importer to massive exporter. Qatar has built more LNG export capacity in the last two decades than existed in 2000. PNG and Peru have started exporting gas. And Australia is maybe 5% into development of the Northwest Shelf.
That chap at Centrica now has a dozen firms offering him long term supply contracts at good prices.
I used to be one of the largest energy investors in London. There are another two dozen countries with massive gas fields who simply can't get funding, because buyers in the West have had plenty of options. (Mozambique's discoveries are enormous: it could be the Saudi Arabia of gas.)
The UK, Italy and the Baltic states were first. We built LNG import facilities so we could bring natural gas in from these new exporters. But everyone is now jumping on the train. If I were doing my old job, I would be salivating at the opportunity to finance Hamburg LNG, because those buyers can't trust Russia any more. (And, for the record, we in the UK have been complicit too: the pipeline may go through Germany, but there have been no shortage of UK purchasers of Nordstream 2 gas.)
Simply: LNG changes the world. Russia's whole hold on the West disappears when they can simply order cargoes from the US, Australia and Qatar.
While their situation is a bit precarious, they are far from fucked. Though that might change under a Trump presidency.
It seems intuitively completely impossible for us to be able to transpprt sufficient gas by ship to power us but we totally can.
We need a better PM.
Unlike that nice Nordstream stuff....
Anyway, I'm off. I have some invisible Garden Bridges to sell to Lord Geidt.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/07/tories-cant-escape-cost-living-disaster/
As I think I have said before, the next GE is going to be far closer than many people think at the moment. Starmer and Reeves have all to play for as the Tories get into an almighty economic mess.
It is an example of actual structural racism. As explained by Lord Wooley in this linkedin post here.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lord-simon-woolley-387611119_yesterday-i-waited-6-hours-to-speak-in-chamber-ugcPost-6884803153154383872-C2gx
For anyone who is sympathetic to the cause of the statue removers and hate speech tyrants -
where are the protests now? Why have they disappeared from view???
The other issue is that the UN recognised government is inviting the Russians to "help" - it's a Russian client state.
Edit: there are some protests apparently:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-59651523
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/protest-nationality-borders-bill-parliament-b1987492.html
I’ve come to wonder if Godwin’s Law wasn’t specifically propagated for this purpose: to diminish people pointing out what’s actually happening.
We should never be afraid to point out nascent totalitarianism.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/07/gb-news-accused-of-prejudicing-colston-four-trial
'The rightwing news channel was summoned to Bristol crown court halfway through the trial in relation to an article and video monologue by the presenter Mercy Muroki titled “I’m in favour of white people calling out racism … but the Colston saga reeks of white guilt”.
In the piece Muroki commented on the ongoing trial and suggested that Bristol council and local police officers might have colluded with a “bunch of anarchic protesters” to tear down the statue of the slave trader Edward Colston. She added: “I don’t need a bunch of white hippies crippled by white guilt to throw a largely irrelevant statue in a river to prove they’re not racist.”'
GBN seemingly only avoided a contempt charge by sending a suit to cringe and roll over on back with paws in the air. What I'm not sure is if the jury were in court for the summoning and bollocksing.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
Annex A.
"Unless saved by rising wages..." is not even a solution is it?
Rising wages = even higher inflation => an inflationary spiral, those of us who lived through the 1970s understand very well.
The structural damage done by Brexit is now unavoidable.
'Colston Four' were all cleared of causing criminal damage to Bristol statue
Judge feared defence lawyers may have placed jury under 'wrongful' pressure
Barrister Liam Walker apologised for urging jury to 'be on right side of history'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10377203/Colston-statue-trial-judge-worried-pressure-jury.html
LT peaked after Christmas.
Hasn't she just disappeared from view? I haven't noted any news events.
If you know any youngsters looking for a great career, give them a helpful nudge.
'A local blog called Alternative Bristol was also separately summoned to court for a potential contempt of court during the trial. They were let off with a warning after apologetically telling the judge they were “more a group of activists than journalists” and in any case “the site only has about 150 hits a day”.'
I have said that if the energy associated with Black Lives Matter could be focussed on this then there is the prospect of real change and progress on the matter of racism in society. But it doesn't happen. And it is obvious to me why that is the case.
That's fine by me, by the way. I'll see my days out with a non-Conservative Government.
"visible outward signal of safety behaviour and a reminder of Covid-19 risks"
Because the benefit in reducing absence was almost zero, or at least statistically insignificant.
The decision should be reversed asap and good on those kids who are refusing to comply.
It's like saying "Referee was worried about foul play in football match: Player was handed yellow card for a mistimed tackle in 35th minute".
I do not regret my vote for Boris at all.
After 10 years of their party in power only 1 PM in the last 100 years win another general election, John Major in 1992 and he then lost the 1997 election by a landslide putting the party out of power for a generation anyway