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Support for Liz Truss fading in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    I know this is a local and may have already been referred to but in these perilous times for the conservative party should labour supporters be voting Lib Dem

    Indeed the conservative vote held up

    Cavendish (Gedling) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 35.5% (+15.8)
    LAB: 30.8% (-24.8)
    CON: 25.4% (+0.6)
    IND: 5.7% (+5.7)
    GRN: 2.6% (+2.6)

    Votes cast: 985

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

    Without knowing the history of the area, isn't that what Lib Dems have always been blooming good at? Identify an upcoming by-election, create a groundswell of support from a standing start by throwing the kitchen sink (or the equivalent mass in Focus leaflets) at it?
    Maybe but it does not suggest an excess of enthusiasm for Starmer's Labour in an area of traditional strenght for them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Heathener said:

    What has happened to Philip_Thompson and CHB?

    Not seen them this year

    Philip has changed username and is still on these threads 24/7. CHB on a break.
    And still advocating a mass cull of the weak and old, which is fairly extreme even by right-wing standards :smiley:
    And the stupid, to be fair (and probably the largest group, albeit with crossover into the others).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cruise news

    Coronavirus cases have been reported on every cruise ship sailing with passengers in U.S. waters.

    According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, all 92 ships with passengers have met the threshold for investigation by the public health agency. In every case, the CDC has either started an investigation or has investigated and continues to observe the ship.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/01/05/every-cruise-ship-covid-cdc/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    PJH said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    On the South Pole story, the thing that grated for me was 'Woman of Colour'. She was of south asian ethnicity (I didn't read the article, but I'm sure being more specific was possible too). 'of colour' strikes me as the new BAME, a useless catch-all that should not be used when there is a more specific group that can be used, if a group is needed at all.

    Is there any more to it other than castign around for an acceptable term that means "non-white"?
    They want to mention colour rather than not-mention white.

    Perhaps it should be called positive racism.
    Weirdly, while 'of colour' seems to be acceptable*, 'coloured' is highly offensive.

    *Is it acceptable? Presumably it is if it's on the BBC. I thought it was falling out of favour. I remember a horribly right-on geography lecturer proudly using it in 1993, which was the first time I'd heard it. You'd think if it was around back then it must be offensive by now.
    It's strange how what's acceptable changes over time. I remember being told at junior school in the late 70s never to call anyone 'black' because it was rude, and that we should use the term 'coloured' instead. No idea if this was just a nice middle-class assumption that coloured=non-white and you might not know if someone was 'black' or 'mixed race'.

    I subsequently married a South African, who was mixed race, therefore self-identified as Coloured (although she didn't really care what she was - she quite liked being 'Other' because that was the box she always ticked irrespective of how many categories there might be on a form). And woe betide anyone who thought 'Black' included my mother-in-law...

    So this all aligned nicely with my 1970s schooling and it was only a few years ago that I discovered that 'coloured' was a pejorative term. I must admit I can't see why 'of colour' is acceptable if 'coloured' isn't as to my mind they mean exactly the same. Not for me to decide I suppose.
    The whole reason for having a catch-all term for people who are not white is that is the fundamental racist division that exists following the history of the global empires of white European countries. Otherwise you wouldn't need such a catch-all term and you'd simply talk about the specific national, cultural or ethnic group.

    That being the case it seems a bit silly to avoid the white root cause of the division by avoiding using "non-white" as the catch-all term.

    But, like you say, not for us to decide how other people want to be referred to.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
  • Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    On the South Pole story, the thing that grated for me was 'Woman of Colour'. She was of south asian ethnicity (I didn't read the article, but I'm sure being more specific was possible too). 'of colour' strikes me as the new BAME, a useless catch-all that should not be used when there is a more specific group that can be used, if a group is needed at all.

    Is there any more to it other than casting around for an acceptable term that means "non-white"?
    I was thinking specifically of this:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-59559834
    'BAME acronym: UK broadcasters commit to avoiding catch-all term'

    The reasons given in the article for avoiding BAME apply just as much to 'of colour'.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    AlistairM said:

    HYUFD said:

    Northern Territory in Australia goes into another lockdown but only for the unvaccinated

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10373889/NT-introduces-tough-new-Covid-rules-territory-goes-LOCKDOWN-unvaccinated.html

    Omicron is completely loose in Australia. Their cases are almost at the levels in the UK. The exception is Western Australia which is basically at zero Covid with just a few cases caught at the state border.

    Also Australia even though mostly not in lockdown is acting as if it is: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-07/economic-crisis-covid-19-social-distancing-lockdown-anz-data/100744990

    It is become more clear that those countries that have implemented lockdowns in the face of Omicron have only slightly delayed the spread. I am pleased the government held the line on not another lockdown. They must have been under immense pressure from some quarters to do so.
    See also the Netherlands – absolutely destroyed the Dutch Christmas season for very little / no benefit.

    If only the highly professionalised medical elite of a major G20 national at the vanguard of the omicron outbreak had reassured the world at the time that lockdowns were a hysterical reaction to a mild variant.

    Funny old world.
  • Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    Apparently she has decided to leave Australia
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    FF43 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Thinking about the politics of lockdowns.

    The Tories didn't put England into lockdown. Anyone genuinely think if Labour were in power that they wouldn't have? The silence from Labour on a lockdown was smart politics as they can't have it pinned on them that they called for one.

    In Scotland and Wales where they did implement some lockdown aspects will the SNP and Welsh Labour be punished for it if, as now seems fairly likely, it was unnecessary?

    Scotland doing much better on hospitalisations than England currently, albeit rising fast in both places. Scotland did have a bad patch in the Autumn 2021, but not as bad as the current Omicron wave. I doubt the Scottish government will be punished for relatively light touch interventions.
    Haven't the Scottish government banned all sporting crowds and large events?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I am unsurpassed - someone is going through the "medical exceptions" with a fine tooth comb. And finding bullshit.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Scott_xP said:

    Eurozone inflation rises to record high of 5 per cent; Excluding more volatile energy and food prices, core inflation was steady at 2.6 per cent. https://www.ft.com/content/a0af46cc-ced2-4c79-981e-8710e6eef922#post-b457b017-b7ae-40ac-ba2e-1f57905a3897 via @financialtimes https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/1479419049511636996/photo/1

    Excluding energy and food prices - really
    That made me laugh, who spends any money on food and energy each month, so lets exclude it.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Yesterday I read an article by Maureen Lipman saying that casting Helen Mirren as Golda Meir was not the right thing to do as she isn't Jewish.

    Today there was an interview on the BBC with a woman introduced as 'the first 'Woman of colour' ever to walk to the South Pole'

    I found both these things regressive and uncomfortable. Is it more difficult to walk to the South Pole if you're a 'Woman of Colour'? Why should someone's ethnicity bar an actress playing a part?

    We really should be well past by this by now and it does no credit to the BBC or Maureen Lipman that they still propagate these divisions

    We rarely agree but on this I completely agree

    Indeed with the trek to the South Pole I was astonished when they referred to her colour rather than her fantastic achievement
    Why can't we refer to people as individuals, not members of a group.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    I know this is a local and may have already been referred to but in these perilous times for the conservative party should labour supporters be voting Lib Dem

    Indeed the conservative vote held up

    Cavendish (Gedling) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 35.5% (+15.8)
    LAB: 30.8% (-24.8)
    CON: 25.4% (+0.6)
    IND: 5.7% (+5.7)
    GRN: 2.6% (+2.6)

    Votes cast: 985

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

    Has anyone ever seen BJO and BigG. in the same room?
    Rumours of this nature are upsetting.

    Especially for BigG presumably.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • I know this is a local and may have already been referred to but in these perilous times for the conservative party should labour supporters be voting Lib Dem

    Indeed the conservative vote held up

    Cavendish (Gedling) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 35.5% (+15.8)
    LAB: 30.8% (-24.8)
    CON: 25.4% (+0.6)
    IND: 5.7% (+5.7)
    GRN: 2.6% (+2.6)

    Votes cast: 985

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

    Has anyone ever seen BJO and BigG. in the same room?
    Rumours of this nature are upsetting.

    Especially for BigG presumably.
    Not for me BJO - I enjoy your posts
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited January 2022
    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Mr. Sandpit, must admit I still don't know if it was worth getting. The sooner we can move on from injecting everyone every few months the better.

    And forcing kids into masks to make politicians feel like they're doing something is rather wretched.

    Still, miles better than the forced vaccination policies of Germany and Italy.


    The masks at schools thing is covid theatre of the worst kind – most children have had covid, and are at very low risk from omicron in any case. Yet they are forced to wear masks when their teachers are not, and nor are adult workers. Where did this irrational policy come from?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited January 2022

    FF43 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Thinking about the politics of lockdowns.

    The Tories didn't put England into lockdown. Anyone genuinely think if Labour were in power that they wouldn't have? The silence from Labour on a lockdown was smart politics as they can't have it pinned on them that they called for one.

    In Scotland and Wales where they did implement some lockdown aspects will the SNP and Welsh Labour be punished for it if, as now seems fairly likely, it was unnecessary?

    Scotland doing much better on hospitalisations than England currently, albeit rising fast in both places. Scotland did have a bad patch in the Autumn 2021, but not as bad as the current Omicron wave. I doubt the Scottish government will be punished for relatively light touch interventions.
    Haven't the Scottish government banned all sporting crowds and large events?
    No. Can't think why people get that notion. 'Large' is restricted, though.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19825774.nicola-sturgeon-covid-update-recap-latest-scotlands-restrictions/?ref=ebbn
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Ride out the wave...

    BREAK: Northamptonshire has become the first UK county to declare a system-wide major incident, which means care homes, hospitals and other services are subject to a critical shortage of staff
    https://twitter.com/JonIronmonger/status/1479424233855930371
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    felix said:

    I know this is a local and may have already been referred to but in these perilous times for the conservative party should labour supporters be voting Lib Dem

    Indeed the conservative vote held up

    Cavendish (Gedling) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 35.5% (+15.8)
    LAB: 30.8% (-24.8)
    CON: 25.4% (+0.6)
    IND: 5.7% (+5.7)
    GRN: 2.6% (+2.6)

    Votes cast: 985

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

    Without knowing the history of the area, isn't that what Lib Dems have always been blooming good at? Identify an upcoming by-election, create a groundswell of support from a standing start by throwing the kitchen sink (or the equivalent mass in Focus leaflets) at it?
    Maybe but it does not suggest an excess of enthusiasm for Starmer's Labour in an area of traditional strenght for them.
    SKS has a 100% loss rate in Council Elections in 2022

    Just saying.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on.

    Looks like they shut off at midnight from this -

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    I don't think bait and switch is the right way to describe it. While the state government views prior infection as a valid excuse, the federal government does not (and did not).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cruise news

    Coronavirus cases have been reported on every cruise ship sailing with passengers in U.S. waters.

    According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, all 92 ships with passengers have met the threshold for investigation by the public health agency. In every case, the CDC has either started an investigation or has investigated and continues to observe the ship.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/01/05/every-cruise-ship-covid-cdc/

    Of course. And so what?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    What's weird is that the total beds occupied with COVID numbers in the primary diagnosis supplement are lower in that doc than the headline numbers in the other docs released today. I'm not sure why, could be some kind of error because the numbers have always matched until today.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    kjh said:

    MattW said:

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    On the South Pole story, the thing that grated for me was 'Woman of Colour'. She was of south asian ethnicity (I didn't read the article, but I'm sure being more specific was possible too). 'of colour' strikes me as the new BAME, a useless catch-all that should not be used when there is a more specific group that can be used, if a group is needed at all.

    Is there any more to it other than castign around for an acceptable term that means "non-white"?
    They want to mention colour rather than not-mention white.

    Perhaps it should be called positive racism.
    Not sure of the point in mentioning colour at all unless it is relevant in some way and I can't see why it is relevant in this case. Good on her for doing it regardless of her colour.
    I assume it is because other women have done the trip (at least Liv Arnesen as first woman in 1994, from Wikipedia) and being nth woman to do it is not news. Being the first non-white woman is, potentially. But I still think the first Sikh/Indian ethnic group woman is a better way of putting it. Or do we not care when the first black woman does it or the first woman of Chinese ethnic group? It lumps all non-white groups in together as if they are all the same.

    When England football team has its first Asian captain, that will be big news, I think.* I don't care that there have already been captains 'of colour'.

    *Full team - I know Suliman has captained the under 19s and below.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Thinking about the politics of lockdowns.

    The Tories didn't put England into lockdown. Anyone genuinely think if Labour were in power that they wouldn't have? The silence from Labour on a lockdown was smart politics as they can't have it pinned on them that they called for one.

    In Scotland and Wales where they did implement some lockdown aspects will the SNP and Welsh Labour be punished for it if, as now seems fairly likely, it was unnecessary?

    Scotland doing much better on hospitalisations than England currently, albeit rising fast in both places. Scotland did have a bad patch in the Autumn 2021, but not as bad as the current Omicron wave. I doubt the Scottish government will be punished for relatively light touch interventions.
    Haven't the Scottish government banned all sporting crowds and large events?
    No. Can't think why people get that notion. 'Large' is restricted, though.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19825774.nicola-sturgeon-covid-update-recap-latest-scotlands-restrictions/?ref=ebbn
    Eh? So what's the maximum crowd at a football match? 500 people?

    That's effectively closed doors, isn't it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    No.

    The Australia government has every right to set entry conditions. Mandatory vaccination for entry is an old, old requirement for some countries and diseases.

    Bullshitting on entry/visa paperwork is never a good plan.

    If he doesn't want the vaccination for "reasons", he could easily stay at home and enjoy a nice cup of tea.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    I don't think bait and switch is the right way to describe it. While the state government views prior infection as a valid excuse, the federal government does not (and did not).
    It may be cock up rather than conspiracy, but 1 arm of the government issuing a visa based on an agreed position, and another then refusing to honour it does not add up to looking like an honest broker.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    PJH said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    On the South Pole story, the thing that grated for me was 'Woman of Colour'. She was of south asian ethnicity (I didn't read the article, but I'm sure being more specific was possible too). 'of colour' strikes me as the new BAME, a useless catch-all that should not be used when there is a more specific group that can be used, if a group is needed at all.

    Is there any more to it other than castign around for an acceptable term that means "non-white"?
    They want to mention colour rather than not-mention white.

    Perhaps it should be called positive racism.
    Weirdly, while 'of colour' seems to be acceptable*, 'coloured' is highly offensive.

    *Is it acceptable? Presumably it is if it's on the BBC. I thought it was falling out of favour. I remember a horribly right-on geography lecturer proudly using it in 1993, which was the first time I'd heard it. You'd think if it was around back then it must be offensive by now.
    It's strange how what's acceptable changes over time. I remember being told at junior school in the late 70s never to call anyone 'black' because it was rude, and that we should use the term 'coloured' instead. No idea if this was just a nice middle-class assumption that coloured=non-white and you might not know if someone was 'black' or 'mixed race'.

    I subsequently married a South African, who was mixed race, therefore self-identified as Coloured (although she didn't really care what she was - she quite liked being 'Other' because that was the box she always ticked irrespective of how many categories there might be on a form). And woe betide anyone who thought 'Black' included my mother-in-law...

    So this all aligned nicely with my 1970s schooling and it was only a few years ago that I discovered that 'coloured' was a pejorative term. I must admit I can't see why 'of colour' is acceptable if 'coloured' isn't as to my mind they mean exactly the same. Not for me to decide I suppose.
    One set of our grandchildren are half-Thai, and, in spite of their mother's best efforts to keep them out of the sun, are 'quite brown'; certainly considerably darker than me even after I've spent a couple of weeks there, even my with my S Welsh heritage. I usually stick to 'half-Thai' when describing them. As they get into their teenage years they are becoming very pretty girls.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    felix said:

    I know this is a local and may have already been referred to but in these perilous times for the conservative party should labour supporters be voting Lib Dem

    Indeed the conservative vote held up

    Cavendish (Gedling) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 35.5% (+15.8)
    LAB: 30.8% (-24.8)
    CON: 25.4% (+0.6)
    IND: 5.7% (+5.7)
    GRN: 2.6% (+2.6)

    Votes cast: 985

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

    Without knowing the history of the area, isn't that what Lib Dems have always been blooming good at? Identify an upcoming by-election, create a groundswell of support from a standing start by throwing the kitchen sink (or the equivalent mass in Focus leaflets) at it?
    Maybe but it does not suggest an excess of enthusiasm for Starmer's Labour in an area of traditional strenght for them.
    Labour should not be losing Local Council seats at this time in the electoral cycle, especially with the Government cocking up all the time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    I don't think bait and switch is the right way to describe it. While the state government views prior infection as a valid excuse, the federal government does not (and did not).
    It may be cock up rather than conspiracy, but 1 arm of the government issuing a visa based on an agreed position, and another then refusing to honour it does not add up to looking like an honest broker.
    That's how it always works, in every country. A visa does not grant you the right to enter, it grants you the right to be considered for entry. The final determination is always made at the border.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited January 2022
    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Yesterday I read an article by Maureen Lipman saying that casting Helen Mirren as Golda Meir was not the right thing to do as she isn't Jewish.

    Today there was an interview on the BBC with a woman introduced as 'the first 'Woman of colour' ever to walk to the South Pole'

    I found both these things regressive and uncomfortable. Is it more difficult to walk to the South Pole if you're a 'Woman of Colour'? Why should someone's ethnicity bar an actress playing a part?

    We really should be well past by this by now and it does no credit to the BBC or Maureen Lipman that they still propagate these divisions

    We'll make a #PBTory out of you yet Rog!

    Happy new year :D
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Scott_xP said:

    Eurozone inflation rises to record high of 5 per cent; Excluding more volatile energy and food prices, core inflation was steady at 2.6 per cent. https://www.ft.com/content/a0af46cc-ced2-4c79-981e-8710e6eef922#post-b457b017-b7ae-40ac-ba2e-1f57905a3897 via @financialtimes https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/1479419049511636996/photo/1

    Excluding energy and food prices - really
    That made me laugh, who spends any money on food and energy each month, so lets exclude it.
    That's sort of precisely why it makes sense to consider the figures without them as well as the overall figures.

    People have little choice but to pay the prices charged for food and energy, so disruptions to supply lead to greater increases in price than with more discretionary expenditure that might be foregone if prices rise too much.

    So if you see strong inflation in prices of things that people don't have to buy then it's an indication that high inflation has become more strongly entrenched in the economy generally, rather than being a temporary reaction to a supply shock.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Thinking about the politics of lockdowns.

    The Tories didn't put England into lockdown. Anyone genuinely think if Labour were in power that they wouldn't have? The silence from Labour on a lockdown was smart politics as they can't have it pinned on them that they called for one.

    In Scotland and Wales where they did implement some lockdown aspects will the SNP and Welsh Labour be punished for it if, as now seems fairly likely, it was unnecessary?

    Scotland doing much better on hospitalisations than England currently, albeit rising fast in both places. Scotland did have a bad patch in the Autumn 2021, but not as bad as the current Omicron wave. I doubt the Scottish government will be punished for relatively light touch interventions.
    Haven't the Scottish government banned all sporting crowds and large events?
    No. Can't think why people get that notion. 'Large' is restricted, though.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19825774.nicola-sturgeon-covid-update-recap-latest-scotlands-restrictions/?ref=ebbn
    Eh? So what's the maximum crowd at a football match? 500 people?

    That's effectively closed doors, isn't it?
    You said 'all'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.

    Incidentally, a WhatApp environmentalist group I have sneaked into, is trying to raise a thing about the Rolls Royce mini-nukes.

    They are claiming, that since they will be built one-piece in a factory and placed on the grounds of existing or semi-decommissioned nuclear power stations, that they are an "end-run" around the proper decades of planning enquiries etc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Yesterday I read an article by Maureen Lipman saying that casting Helen Mirren as Golda Meir was not the right thing to do as she isn't Jewish.

    Today there was an interview on the BBC with a woman introduced as 'the first 'Woman of colour' ever to walk to the South Pole'

    I found both these things regressive and uncomfortable. Is it more difficult to walk to the South Pole if you're a 'Woman of Colour'? Why should someone's ethnicity bar an actress playing a part?

    We really should be well past by this by now and it does no credit to the BBC or Maureen Lipman that they still propagate these divisions

    I find the rise of the idea that only certain people can play certain roles is ridiculous. All actors are playing roles, that's the whole job. You can say that people shouldn't 'black-up' to play a person of colour, but why then do actors try to look like the person they are playing?
    "I'm not There", the biopic of Bob Dylan, played with this in an interesting way.
    Despite being deeply unsatisfactory as a film.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    From posts this morning, it's clear that the axiomatic obsession with 'cases' continues largely unabated in some circles.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    No.

    The Australia government has every right to set entry conditions. Mandatory vaccination for entry is an old, old requirement for some countries and diseases.

    Bullshitting on entry/visa paperwork is never a good plan.

    If he doesn't want the vaccination for "reasons", he could easily stay at home and enjoy a nice cup of tea.
    Different issue. They discussed in advance and a competant authority issued a visa in full possession of the facts. There is zero suggestion of any lying on paperwork. After the fact and once he landed, Australia moved the goalposts.

    They should get their house in order rather than pointing fingers elsewhere.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited January 2022
    PJH said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    On the South Pole story, the thing that grated for me was 'Woman of Colour'. She was of south asian ethnicity (I didn't read the article, but I'm sure being more specific was possible too). 'of colour' strikes me as the new BAME, a useless catch-all that should not be used when there is a more specific group that can be used, if a group is needed at all.

    Is there any more to it other than castign around for an acceptable term that means "non-white"?
    They want to mention colour rather than not-mention white.

    Perhaps it should be called positive racism.
    Weirdly, while 'of colour' seems to be acceptable*, 'coloured' is highly offensive.

    *Is it acceptable? Presumably it is if it's on the BBC. I thought it was falling out of favour. I remember a horribly right-on geography lecturer proudly using it in 1993, which was the first time I'd heard it. You'd think if it was around back then it must be offensive by now.
    It's strange how what's acceptable changes over time. I remember being told at junior school in the late 70s never to call anyone 'black' because it was rude, and that we should use the term 'coloured' instead. No idea if this was just a nice middle-class assumption that coloured=non-white and you might not know if someone was 'black' or 'mixed race'.

    I subsequently married a South African, who was mixed race, therefore self-identified as Coloured (although she didn't really care what she was - she quite liked being 'Other' because that was the box she always ticked irrespective of how many categories there might be on a form). And woe betide anyone who thought 'Black' included my mother-in-law...

    So this all aligned nicely with my 1970s schooling and it was only a few years ago that I discovered that 'coloured' was a pejorative term. I must admit I can't see why 'of colour' is acceptable if 'coloured' isn't as to my mind they mean exactly the same. Not for me to decide I suppose.
    There is just a characteristic lifetime for all these terms. It is of the order of 5 years.

    In a few years, the currently favoured "of colour" will simply follow the fate of "BAME".

    For example, "third world countries" fell out of favour, to be replaced by "emergent countries", which fell out of favour to be replaced with "LDCs".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    From posts this morning, it's clear that the axiomatic obsession with 'cases' continues largely unabated in some circles.

    Yes, now that schools are open I expect case rates to shoot up and the same people to call for lockdowns and schools to be closed despite little evidence that it's actually a problem beyond the stupid isolation rules that the government has manufactured a crisis with.
  • felix said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Yesterday I read an article by Maureen Lipman saying that casting Helen Mirren as Golda Meir was not the right thing to do as she isn't Jewish.

    Today there was an interview on the BBC with a woman introduced as 'the first 'Woman of colour' ever to walk to the South Pole'

    I found both these things regressive and uncomfortable. Is it more difficult to walk to the South Pole if you're a 'Woman of Colour'? Why should someone's ethnicity bar an actress playing a part?

    We really should be well past by this by now and it does no credit to the BBC or Maureen Lipman that they still propagate these divisions

    Welcome to the dark side, Roger.
    It shouldn't be sides. People should say what they believe and call out nonsense on either "side" of the debates. The Mirren story is nonsense that does need challenging, the other one irrelevant fluff imo.
    Interesting - so anyone can play black or gay characters regardless of their colour or sexuality. I think so but very surprised at you.
    Yes, but it is how they do it not if they do it. As long as it is done respectfully and the story telling works I see no problem in anyone playing someone of a different race, sexuality, gender or any other characteristic. That does not mean if someone does it without respect, as in traditional blacking up from the 20th century, they should not be criticised for it, but the right of people to act and portray others is an important part of free society.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,785
    Mr. masarsh, while I dislike Djokovic's approach, I do think you're right about him being treated unfairly by the Australian Government. He was given the green light and showed up only for the decision to be retrospectively changed because the politicians had underestimated how angered the public would be.

    I agree he shouldn't be allowed in to play but the way it was handled wasn't great.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Heathener said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Yesterday I read an article by Maureen Lipman saying that casting Helen Mirren as Golda Meir was not the right thing to do as she isn't Jewish.

    Today there was an interview on the BBC with a woman introduced as 'the first 'Woman of colour' ever to walk to the South Pole'

    I found both these things regressive and uncomfortable. Is it more difficult to walk to the South Pole if you're a 'Woman of Colour'? Why should someone's ethnicity bar an actress playing a part?

    We really should be well past by this by now and it does no credit to the BBC or Maureen Lipman that they still propagate these divisions

    I am reminded of the story that when filming Marathon Man, Dustin Hoffman ran miles and didn't sleep to look suitably ragged.

    Laurence Olivier commented - "My dear boy, why don’t you just try acting?”
    I think the point is that opportunity should be given to those best able to represent certain characters e.g. a trans person to play a trans role.

    I don't think anyone is denying the capacity of method actors to fill out of character roles.

    As for the non-white lady reaching the South Pole I think this is worthy of note in the same way that the Sherpa ascent of K2 in winter was.

    Why? Well certain types of exploration and sports have historically been the preserve of white males. Breaking the typecast is notable.
    Just thinking about what you said. Seeing a female or ethnicity X or deaf or whatever person do Y is actually quite an important role model for children of the same ilk [edit] when for social or historical reasons they don't feel they are up to it when in fact they very much are. Female geologists and archaeologists are very clued up to that - the Trowel Blazers website for instance.

    I once had a chat with a teacher in a scholl for the deaf who said that some of their teachers are deaf as well - one very important reason was that the children had had no adult role models. Indeed, in the old days they'd discovered that the children had, logically enough, convinced themselves that there were no deaf adults, so they wouldn't be deaf when they grew up.

    But even getting South Asian folk out into the countryside for perfectly ordinary walks and rambles is itself a minor but real victory for health and happiness. There's quite a bit of campaigning in the inner cities for that.
    Did anyone watch World's Strongest Man? It's the one televisual fixture I have imposed on my family. I love it. If I could excel at any sport, it would be strongman.
    Anyway, it shouldn't matter that Tom Stoltman, the world's strongest man, is autistic. But it does, for exactly that reason. The son of a friend of mine is autistic, and for that reason I'm always on the lookout for examples of autistic people succeeding in life.

    I'm less excited by non-white woman reaches south pole (apart from that anyone reaching the south pole is a tremendous achievment) because non-white person does x is much less rare. First black footballer was remarkable because it was unusual to have any positive black role models back then - but as Roger says, surely we have got beyond that now.

    That said, on the final paragraph above, I know it's perceived that South Asians don't do country walks - for which reason, I'm always disproportionately pleased to see South Asians when I'm out walking. Not entirely sure why: I think because a) I love my countryside and it pleases me greatly to see everyone enjoying it, particularly groups outside who you would ordinarily see (South Asians, teenagers*, southerners) and b) enjoying the same landscape must be a great positive for integration.
    South Asians (particularly groups of young male South Asians) are, I would add, very much in evidence when walking in the countryside in Lancashire: Rivington Pike above Bolton and Pendle Hill above Burnley, for example.

    *One of my happiest moments walking last year was on Wild Bank Hill above Stalybridge. I was at the top as a group of teenage boys arrived at the top. Dressed in tracksuits and trainers, happy and boisterous, and, it would seem, doing something they hadn't done before: they had walked for about an hour and made it to the top, and the quiet awe that here was something quite amazing which had been on their doorstep all these years was something wonderful to behold.
    Rivington Pike is one of England's loveliest walks.
    Easily accessible, yet almost unknown outside the NW. (Perhaps as it sits too close to Peaks and Dales?)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.

    Incidentally, a WhatApp environmentalist group I have sneaked into, is trying to raise a thing about the Rolls Royce mini-nukes.

    They are claiming, that since they will be built one-piece in a factory and placed on the grounds of existing or semi-decommissioned nuclear power stations, that they are an "end-run" around the proper decades of planning enquiries etc.
    Hold on, wasn't that in the RR documentation, that they can use pre-existing nuclear power infrastructure with their mini-nukes? It's hardly some big conspiracy that they would use existing sites which have got grid and security infrastructure already in place.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Ride out the wave...

    BREAK: Northamptonshire has become the first UK county to declare a system-wide major incident, which means care homes, hospitals and other services are subject to a critical shortage of staff
    https://twitter.com/JonIronmonger/status/1479424233855930371

    Interesting that 39,000 BHS staff were off on the 2nd January so by Monday most of those staff should be back at work while others will be off

    Also the earlier post that some trusts have removed their major incidents is encouraging

    My son, his wife and their son (not their daughter) have returned positive PCR tests and are to isolate until next Monday but my son has said today none of them are ill other than a normal cold and expect to be back in work next Tuesday
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    987k now signed the Tony Blair knighthood to be rescinded petition

    Haven't bothered to sign it yet but I might try and be the 1 millionth signature!
  • Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Thinking about the politics of lockdowns.

    The Tories didn't put England into lockdown. Anyone genuinely think if Labour were in power that they wouldn't have? The silence from Labour on a lockdown was smart politics as they can't have it pinned on them that they called for one.

    In Scotland and Wales where they did implement some lockdown aspects will the SNP and Welsh Labour be punished for it if, as now seems fairly likely, it was unnecessary?

    Scotland doing much better on hospitalisations than England currently, albeit rising fast in both places. Scotland did have a bad patch in the Autumn 2021, but not as bad as the current Omicron wave. I doubt the Scottish government will be punished for relatively light touch interventions.
    Haven't the Scottish government banned all sporting crowds and large events?
    No. Can't think why people get that notion. 'Large' is restricted, though.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19825774.nicola-sturgeon-covid-update-recap-latest-scotlands-restrictions/?ref=ebbn
    Eh? So what's the maximum crowd at a football match? 500 people?

    That's effectively closed doors, isn't it?
    Apart from 500 probably being a respectable crowd for some lower league grounds in January, it’s the football winter break currently so you can untwist your knickers.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    987k now signed the Tony Blair knighthood to be rescinded petition

    Haven't bothered to sign it yet but I might try and be the 1 millionth signature!

    I have signed ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    From posts this morning, it's clear that the axiomatic obsession with 'cases' continues largely unabated in some circles.

    Ha.

    While the boosters have further disconnected COVID cases from hospitalisation and deaths (and Omicron itself seems to have had some effect), it is clear that a numbers of people are getting sick and dying.

    It is beginning to look as if we *may* be able to get through this wave without Italy style medical collapse, but it won't be jolly in the hospitals for a while.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Thinking about the politics of lockdowns.

    The Tories didn't put England into lockdown. Anyone genuinely think if Labour were in power that they wouldn't have? The silence from Labour on a lockdown was smart politics as they can't have it pinned on them that they called for one.

    In Scotland and Wales where they did implement some lockdown aspects will the SNP and Welsh Labour be punished for it if, as now seems fairly likely, it was unnecessary?

    Scotland doing much better on hospitalisations than England currently, albeit rising fast in both places. Scotland did have a bad patch in the Autumn 2021, but not as bad as the current Omicron wave. I doubt the Scottish government will be punished for relatively light touch interventions.
    Haven't the Scottish government banned all sporting crowds and large events?
    No. Can't think why people get that notion. 'Large' is restricted, though.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19825774.nicola-sturgeon-covid-update-recap-latest-scotlands-restrictions/?ref=ebbn
    Eh? So what's the maximum crowd at a football match? 500 people?

    That's effectively closed doors, isn't it?
    You said 'all'.
    As this is pedantic betting.com I'm happy to retract the all in favour of:

    The Scottish government has for all intents and purposes banned sporting crowds by limiting attendances to the derisory number of 500 – 0.7% of the capacity of Murrayfield.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Breaking: NHS Grampian say they expect to meet key trigger points to declare a major incident as early as the end of next week amid exponential growth in COVID case numbers. https://twitter.com/Davyshanks/status/1479428708851240960/photo/1
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Yes, Foxy mentioned some very sharp differences in outcome. And that was, IIRC, for asymptomatic stuff. Asymptomatic. Wasn't there a massive increase in fatalities for anaesthesia alone? That's something many patients have to have.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    I see Nigel Farage is panning the Aussies for taking back control of their borders.

    Strange old world.
  • PJH said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    Applicant said:

    Selebian said:

    On the South Pole story, the thing that grated for me was 'Woman of Colour'. She was of south asian ethnicity (I didn't read the article, but I'm sure being more specific was possible too). 'of colour' strikes me as the new BAME, a useless catch-all that should not be used when there is a more specific group that can be used, if a group is needed at all.

    Is there any more to it other than castign around for an acceptable term that means "non-white"?
    They want to mention colour rather than not-mention white.

    Perhaps it should be called positive racism.
    Weirdly, while 'of colour' seems to be acceptable*, 'coloured' is highly offensive.

    *Is it acceptable? Presumably it is if it's on the BBC. I thought it was falling out of favour. I remember a horribly right-on geography lecturer proudly using it in 1993, which was the first time I'd heard it. You'd think if it was around back then it must be offensive by now.
    It's strange how what's acceptable changes over time. I remember being told at junior school in the late 70s never to call anyone 'black' because it was rude, and that we should use the term 'coloured' instead. No idea if this was just a nice middle-class assumption that coloured=non-white and you might not know if someone was 'black' or 'mixed race'.

    I subsequently married a South African, who was mixed race, therefore self-identified as Coloured (although she didn't really care what she was - she quite liked being 'Other' because that was the box she always ticked irrespective of how many categories there might be on a form). And woe betide anyone who thought 'Black' included my mother-in-law...

    So this all aligned nicely with my 1970s schooling and it was only a few years ago that I discovered that 'coloured' was a pejorative term. I must admit I can't see why 'of colour' is acceptable if 'coloured' isn't as to my mind they mean exactly the same. Not for me to decide I suppose.
    The whole reason for having a catch-all term for people who are not white is that is the fundamental racist division that exists following the history of the global empires of white European countries. Otherwise you wouldn't need such a catch-all term and you'd simply talk about the specific national, cultural or ethnic group.

    That being the case it seems a bit silly to avoid the white root cause of the division by avoiding using "non-white" as the catch-all term.

    But, like you say, not for us to decide how other people want to be referred to.
    In which case I prefer to be described as pink. I'm deeply offended by the suggestion that I might be colourless.

    On topic ... "Support for Liz Truss" ... fnarr fnarr.
  • maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    No.

    The Australia government has every right to set entry conditions. Mandatory vaccination for entry is an old, old requirement for some countries and diseases.

    Bullshitting on entry/visa paperwork is never a good plan.

    If he doesn't want the vaccination for "reasons", he could easily stay at home and enjoy a nice cup of tea.
    People who were previously admiring of Australia taking control of its own borders seem a little conflicted.
    I’d have a tiny bit more respect for Novak if he was honest about his antivax position rather than this weasely attempt to have his cake and eat it. The whiny, hyperbolic martyrdom stuff isn’t helping.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    AlistairM said:

    Thinking about the politics of lockdowns.

    The Tories didn't put England into lockdown. Anyone genuinely think if Labour were in power that they wouldn't have? The silence from Labour on a lockdown was smart politics as they can't have it pinned on them that they called for one.

    In Scotland and Wales where they did implement some lockdown aspects will the SNP and Welsh Labour be punished for it if, as now seems fairly likely, it was unnecessary?

    Scotland doing much better on hospitalisations than England currently, albeit rising fast in both places. Scotland did have a bad patch in the Autumn 2021, but not as bad as the current Omicron wave. I doubt the Scottish government will be punished for relatively light touch interventions.
    Haven't the Scottish government banned all sporting crowds and large events?
    No. Can't think why people get that notion. 'Large' is restricted, though.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19825774.nicola-sturgeon-covid-update-recap-latest-scotlands-restrictions/?ref=ebbn
    Eh? So what's the maximum crowd at a football match? 500 people?

    That's effectively closed doors, isn't it?
    Apart from 500 probably being a respectable crowd for some lower league grounds in January, it’s the football winter break currently so you can untwist your knickers.
    My underpants are fully pressed. I was simply challenging the notion that restrictions in Scotland were 'light touch'. I'd call them medium, not light. Restricting sporting events to 500 people is rather limiting, I'd say.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126
    Scott_xP said:

    Ride out the wave...

    BREAK: Northamptonshire has become the first UK county to declare a system-wide major incident, which means care homes, hospitals and other services are subject to a critical shortage of staff
    https://twitter.com/JonIronmonger/status/1479424233855930371

    What would you do differently?

    A partial lockdown will have almost no effect. A Wuhan style lockdown would still likely see relatively high transmission. The Sturge and the Drakes efforts will do the square root of naff all.

    Riding out the wave with high levels of antibodies is all we can do.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kamski said:

    Selebian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Any link to the study? Most of the story is paywalled for me and I'm always interested in mask studies for Covid (as an epidemiologist, because estimating efficacy is an interesting epidemiological problem - there's lots of confounding, potential misclassification bias and the benefits are at the population level more than the individual level)
    Pretty sure it's this -> evidence review: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044767/Evidence_summary_-_face_coverings.pdf

    Annex A.
    Thanks, interesting approach and makes sense given the lack of data for a more conventional multivariable model. I've done plenty of propensity matching, but not come across this particular variation before. I like its elegance.

    On the original Times story, the results are not statistically significant, but the point estimates are different over a short (two-three week) period. Absences were 20% higher (weighted) in the no mask group compared to the mask group (again, not significant evidence though). Different decreases in absences in the goups. Could add up to a substantial difference over a longer period. Would be interesting to see a larger study over a longer period. Also, the analysis is on absence rate of pupils. Absence rate of teachers would also be a relevant measure (but with fewer teachers, a larger sample would likely be needed to find anything interesting).

    Whether masks are worth the downsides is of course a different question. There may be better options for schools (e.g. ventilation/air purification).

    [Added some edits to clarify my viewpoint - what I wrote originally looked a bit too pro-masks-in-schools which is not really my view]
    There seem to have been a few studies showing some reduction from wearing masks in schools. There is one (pre-Omicron) from Germany here:
    https://www.kmk.org/fileadmin/pdf/PresseUndAktuelles/2021/KMK-Corona-Studie_Abschlussbericht.pdf

    Scroll down to Anhang 6 (in English)

    I've only read the Discussion which concludes:

    "In Germany, school-related NPIs, in particular masking, have been successful in
    mitigating the spread of the virus among both students and teachers."


    I can believe that there is some reduction from masks. However the question that MUST be asked is does the reduction in spread justify the harms/effects of mask wearing?
    And, once again, the more pertinent question is what do we gain, at this point in time, from preventing the spread of the virus? Everyone who wants to be vaccinated is, anyone can walk up and get a booster dose. To what end are we preventing the spread of the virus? No one has really answered this question other than to say "yeah but people could die" without actually saying which people could die and whether or not they'd die tomorrow or 3 months from now.
    Yep. In terms of transition to 'living with covid' people are clearly in different places. You (I think) and I are ready to return most things to normal. Test for covid at hospital to diagnose. Drop routine testing. End isolation but encourage people with symptoms to stay home (WFH if possile). No more masks, but encourage good building design and better ventilation (good for us, anyway).

    Others have not cottoned on that covid cannot be eliminated, and still cling to the idea that with just enough masks, lockdowns etc we can be free. Not going to happen.

    People will also need to think about their own personal risk. When I was being treated for leukeamia it made sense to think about activities that might increase the risk of illness when more susceptible. Now not so much. This is NOT a charter that says 'I don't care about vulnerable people', but an inevitable fact of life.
    I'd go quite a bit further, I'd say only people with severe symptoms should stay home and let it be their personal choice and I definitely wouldn't bother with expensive retrofitting of ventilation systems. We didn't do it for the flu and COVID looks very much less deadly than the flu in a largely immunised population.

    After that I'd leave it up to the individual and companies to decide on work patterns.

    I'd also get rid of all testing at the border, we had it with Omicron and it didn't help, by the time wed realised that something was different it was far, far too late. I'd also want to get international agreement on this with the US and EU where COVID rates are broadly similar. Why are we bothering to keep Americans and Europeans out of the UK (and them us) when there's basically no difference in our infection rates.

    The only lasting change I'd make is a hard vaccine barrier on entry to the UK. A person must be fully vaccinated with at least one booster dose to enter the UK. No exceptions other than verified medical exemptions notified in advance of travelling. That's not to prevent spread, more to push people into the vaccine funnel.
    Agree with a lot of that - but I disagree about ventilation. With better insulation, ventilation has been getting steadily worse. This really needs a good look at in building regs, rather than being forgotten about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    From posts this morning, it's clear that the axiomatic obsession with 'cases' continues largely unabated in some circles.

    Ha.

    While the boosters have further disconnected COVID cases from hospitalisation and deaths (and Omicron itself seems to have had some effect), it is clear that a numbers of people are getting sick and dying.

    It is beginning to look as if we *may* be able to get through this wave without Italy style medical collapse, but it won't be jolly in the hospitals for a while.
    3.5m infections in England (mostly Omicron) has resulted in somewhere around 8-9k in hospital for COVID in England and a further 6-8k with COVID. The infection hospitalisation rate must be miniscule. We're talking maybe 0.2% of infected people requiring an overnight stay in hospital for Omicron.

    The biggest threat to hospitals is isolation rules. Making people who are perfectly fine stay home for at least 7 days is why the NHS is under pressure right now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    MaxPB said:

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.

    Incidentally, a WhatApp environmentalist group I have sneaked into, is trying to raise a thing about the Rolls Royce mini-nukes.

    They are claiming, that since they will be built one-piece in a factory and placed on the grounds of existing or semi-decommissioned nuclear power stations, that they are an "end-run" around the proper decades of planning enquiries etc.
    Hold on, wasn't that in the RR documentation, that they can use pre-existing nuclear power infrastructure with their mini-nukes? It's hardly some big conspiracy that they would use existing sites which have got grid and security infrastructure already in place.
    Oh indeed - in fact that was the first thing I thought of. While mini-nukes are less efficient etc, they are more buildable.

    Because they can be built in a factory (with knowledge/skills borrowed directly from building submarine reactors), and placed on existing nuclear power station sites.

    The "end-run" around the planning issues is part of the pitch for them.

    Bit like why I think that much of the power storage in the UK may well end up being containers of batteries.

    The government has put in a ruling that small (few MWH) storage systems don't need full power station style planning approval. At which point it is rather had to stop someone parking a handful of containers somewhere and hooking them up to the grid. Bet that happens at the petrol stations turned into charging sites.....

    Meanwhile tidal ponds will be stuck in the external rounds of planning/environmental enquiries. Probably until the UNIX clock wraps around.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    I know this is a local and may have already been referred to but in these perilous times for the conservative party should labour supporters be voting Lib Dem

    Indeed the conservative vote held up

    Cavendish (Gedling) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 35.5% (+15.8)
    LAB: 30.8% (-24.8)
    CON: 25.4% (+0.6)
    IND: 5.7% (+5.7)
    GRN: 2.6% (+2.6)

    Votes cast: 985

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

    Without knowing the history of the area, isn't that what Lib Dems have always been blooming good at? Identify an upcoming by-election, create a groundswell of support from a standing start by throwing the kitchen sink (or the equivalent mass in Focus leaflets) at it?
    The bloody LibDems leafleted me -- ME -- on Christmas Eve.

    I mean, in the middle of rural Wales, in a completely inhospitable constituency, to a completely hostile voter, some sad activist with nothing better to do on Christmas Eve was out ... and ploughing the lonely LibDem furrow.

    So .... a special hug to the LibDem who did this :) I almost cried.
    Sympathy vote from you? Just asking.
  • At last something I can agree with Drakeford

    He has just said most people in critical care are unvaccinated
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    MaxPB said:

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.

    Incidentally, a WhatApp environmentalist group I have sneaked into, is trying to raise a thing about the Rolls Royce mini-nukes.

    They are claiming, that since they will be built one-piece in a factory and placed on the grounds of existing or semi-decommissioned nuclear power stations, that they are an "end-run" around the proper decades of planning enquiries etc.
    Hold on, wasn't that in the RR documentation, that they can use pre-existing nuclear power infrastructure with their mini-nukes? It's hardly some big conspiracy that they would use existing sites which have got grid and security infrastructure already in place.
    Yep - that's the entire point. Plus it's infrastructure, we really should have the ability for the Government to bypass years of pointless argument and just sign things off to get on with things - it will save billions in project costs.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    MaxPB said:

    From posts this morning, it's clear that the axiomatic obsession with 'cases' continues largely unabated in some circles.

    Yes, now that schools are open I expect case rates to shoot up and the same people to call for lockdowns and schools to be closed despite little evidence that it's actually a problem beyond the stupid isolation rules that the government has manufactured a crisis with.

    Sadly, I suspect that is what will happen. However, I remain hopeful that people are getting the memo now – certainly my group of leftie friends are.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Mr. masarsh, while I dislike Djokovic's approach, I do think you're right about him being treated unfairly by the Australian Government. He was given the green light and showed up only for the decision to be retrospectively changed because the politicians had underestimated how angered the public would be.

    I agree he shouldn't be allowed in to play but the way it was handled wasn't great.

    Novax wasn't given the green light. Someone who wasn't in a position to let him in said he was fine, turns out he wasn't.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    I see Nigel Farage is panning the Aussies for taking back control of their borders.

    Strange old world.

    Yes, he has accused Australia of being a 'banana republic' for banning Djokovic and says it is increasingly impossible to live a normal life in the western world if unvaccinated. He also says he is ready to come back and help RefUK challenge the Tories in the redwall as the redwall voted to take back control of our borders not to 'surrender the English channel to criminal trafficking gangs' in his words

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1479398587855482881?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1478853773518942216?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1479027078280404996?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1479212089172500485?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    If you have a report that a disease + condition X = *orders* of magnitude more bad outcomes.... well, it is not surprising that the medics are going "hey, throw that out the window, things are different now" without further evidence.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    No.

    The Australia government has every right to set entry conditions. Mandatory vaccination for entry is an old, old requirement for some countries and diseases.

    Bullshitting on entry/visa paperwork is never a good plan.

    If he doesn't want the vaccination for "reasons", he could easily stay at home and enjoy a nice cup of tea.
    People who were previously admiring of Australia taking control of its own borders seem a little conflicted.
    I’d have a tiny bit more respect for Novak if he was honest about his antivax position rather than this weasely attempt to have his cake and eat it. The whiny, hyperbolic martyrdom stuff isn’t helping.
    Being anti-vaccination isn't necessarily inconsistent with having a medical exemption from a specific vaccine mandate.
  • More people aged 65 & over have received #FluJabs this year than ever before with 81.4% so far this winter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.

    Incidentally, a WhatApp environmentalist group I have sneaked into, is trying to raise a thing about the Rolls Royce mini-nukes.

    They are claiming, that since they will be built one-piece in a factory and placed on the grounds of existing or semi-decommissioned nuclear power stations, that they are an "end-run" around the proper decades of planning enquiries etc.
    That's a good thing, surely ? :smile:
  • maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    No.

    The Australia government has every right to set entry conditions. Mandatory vaccination for entry is an old, old requirement for some countries and diseases.

    Bullshitting on entry/visa paperwork is never a good plan.

    If he doesn't want the vaccination for "reasons", he could easily stay at home and enjoy a nice cup of tea.
    People who were previously admiring of Australia taking control of its own borders seem a little conflicted.
    I’d have a tiny bit more respect for Novak if he was honest about his antivax position rather than this weasely attempt to have his cake and eat it. The whiny, hyperbolic martyrdom stuff isn’t helping.
    Would he have more respect if he was spouting anti-vax stuff at every single press conference rather than not answering questions on it? I very much doubt he would, and the press would be relentless in getting him to say it over and over.

    Once he is an anti vaxxer, extremely famous and his job/ambitions require him to stay in the public spotlight he has no good options available (other than to stop being an anti-vaxxer of course).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    If you have a report that a disease + condition X = *orders* of magnitude more bad outcomes.... well, it is not surprising that the medics are going "hey, throw that out the window, things are different now" without further evidence.
    Is there a 'not' missing, perhaps?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Heathener said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Yesterday I read an article by Maureen Lipman saying that casting Helen Mirren as Golda Meir was not the right thing to do as she isn't Jewish.

    Today there was an interview on the BBC with a woman introduced as 'the first 'Woman of colour' ever to walk to the South Pole'

    I found both these things regressive and uncomfortable. Is it more difficult to walk to the South Pole if you're a 'Woman of Colour'? Why should someone's ethnicity bar an actress playing a part?

    We really should be well past by this by now and it does no credit to the BBC or Maureen Lipman that they still propagate these divisions

    I am reminded of the story that when filming Marathon Man, Dustin Hoffman ran miles and didn't sleep to look suitably ragged.

    Laurence Olivier commented - "My dear boy, why don’t you just try acting?”
    I think the point is that opportunity should be given to those best able to represent certain characters e.g. a trans person to play a trans role.

    I don't think anyone is denying the capacity of method actors to fill out of character roles.

    As for the non-white lady reaching the South Pole I think this is worthy of note in the same way that the Sherpa ascent of K2 in winter was.

    Why? Well certain types of exploration and sports have historically been the preserve of white males. Breaking the typecast is notable.
    Just thinking about what you said. Seeing a female or ethnicity X or deaf or whatever person do Y is actually quite an important role model for children of the same ilk [edit] when for social or historical reasons they don't feel they are up to it when in fact they very much are. Female geologists and archaeologists are very clued up to that - the Trowel Blazers website for instance.

    I once had a chat with a teacher in a scholl for the deaf who said that some of their teachers are deaf as well - one very important reason was that the children had had no adult role models. Indeed, in the old days they'd discovered that the children had, logically enough, convinced themselves that there were no deaf adults, so they wouldn't be deaf when they grew up.

    But even getting South Asian folk out into the countryside for perfectly ordinary walks and rambles is itself a minor but real victory for health and happiness. There's quite a bit of campaigning in the inner cities for that.
    Did anyone watch World's Strongest Man? It's the one televisual fixture I have imposed on my family. I love it. If I could excel at any sport, it would be strongman.
    Anyway, it shouldn't matter that Tom Stoltman, the world's strongest man, is autistic. But it does, for exactly that reason. The son of a friend of mine is autistic, and for that reason I'm always on the lookout for examples of autistic people succeeding in life.

    I'm less excited by non-white woman reaches south pole (apart from that anyone reaching the south pole is a tremendous achievment) because non-white person does x is much less rare. First black footballer was remarkable because it was unusual to have any positive black role models back then - but as Roger says, surely we have got beyond that now.

    That said, on the final paragraph above, I know it's perceived that South Asians don't do country walks - for which reason, I'm always disproportionately pleased to see South Asians when I'm out walking. Not entirely sure why: I think because a) I love my countryside and it pleases me greatly to see everyone enjoying it, particularly groups outside who you would ordinarily see (South Asians, teenagers*, southerners) and b) enjoying the same landscape must be a great positive for integration.
    South Asians (particularly groups of young male South Asians) are, I would add, very much in evidence when walking in the countryside in Lancashire: Rivington Pike above Bolton and Pendle Hill above Burnley, for example.

    *One of my happiest moments walking last year was on Wild Bank Hill above Stalybridge. I was at the top as a group of teenage boys arrived at the top. Dressed in tracksuits and trainers, happy and boisterous, and, it would seem, doing something they hadn't done before: they had walked for about an hour and made it to the top, and the quiet awe that here was something quite amazing which had been on their doorstep all these years was something wonderful to behold.
    Rivington Pike is one of England's loveliest walks.
    Easily accessible, yet almost unknown outside the NW. (Perhaps as it sits too close to Peaks and Dales?)
    Yes, one of those walks where the reward:effort ratio is very much in your favour. I remember doing it with my oldest two when they were 8 and 7. A happy, happy day.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    I see Nigel Farage is panning the Aussies for taking back control of their borders.

    Strange old world.

    Yes, he has accused Australia of being a 'banana republic' for banning Djokovic and says it is increasingly impossible to live a normal life in the western world if unvaccinated. He also says he is ready to come back and help RefUK challenge the Tories in the redwall as the redwall voted to take back control of our borders not to 'surrender the English channel to criminal trafficking gangs' in his words

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1479398587855482881?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1478853773518942216?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1479027078280404996?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1479212089172500485?s=20
    So. Is he favour of sovereign nations being able to make rules as to who is, and isn't, allowed in their country?
    Or not?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    Because vaccination turns out to be virtually useless at preventing asymptomatic infection, and asymptomatic infection is what we are talking about here. Sure, it might not prevent the actual infection, but magically by some unintended side effect circumvent all the complications which kill people under anaesthetic at, what, 30x the usual rate, but would you bet the farm on that if it was you being operated on? You seem to be having it both ways: affecting boredom at the quite striking news that 92 out of 92 vaccinated, negative tested cruise ships are covidified to the eyeballs, but attributing magical efficacy to vaccines in surgical cases here. Why the difference?
  • MaxPB said:

    From posts this morning, it's clear that the axiomatic obsession with 'cases' continues largely unabated in some circles.

    Yes, now that schools are open I expect case rates to shoot up and the same people to call for lockdowns and schools to be closed despite little evidence that it's actually a problem beyond the stupid isolation rules that the government has manufactured a crisis with.

    Sadly, I suspect that is what will happen. However, I remain hopeful that people are getting the memo now – certainly my group of leftie friends are.
    Drakeford getting destroyed in comments on BBC (of all places):

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59895505
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    MaxPB said:

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.

    Incidentally, a WhatApp environmentalist group I have sneaked into, is trying to raise a thing about the Rolls Royce mini-nukes.

    They are claiming, that since they will be built one-piece in a factory and placed on the grounds of existing or semi-decommissioned nuclear power stations, that they are an "end-run" around the proper decades of planning enquiries etc.
    Hold on, wasn't that in the RR documentation, that they can use pre-existing nuclear power infrastructure with their mini-nukes? It's hardly some big conspiracy that they would use existing sites which have got grid and security infrastructure already in place.
    Oh indeed - in fact that was the first thing I thought of. While mini-nukes are less efficient etc, they are more buildable.

    Because they can be built in a factory (with knowledge/skills borrowed directly from building submarine reactors), and placed on existing nuclear power station sites.

    The "end-run" around the planning issues is part of the pitch for them.

    Bit like why I think that much of the power storage in the UK may well end up being containers of batteries.

    The government has put in a ruling that small (few MWH) storage systems don't need full power station style planning approval. At which point it is rather had to stop someone parking a handful of containers somewhere and hooking them up to the grid. Bet that happens at the petrol stations turned into charging sites.....

    Meanwhile tidal ponds will be stuck in the external rounds of planning/environmental enquiries. Probably until the UNIX clock wraps around.
    Nice catch on the petrol station into battery storage units alongside charging sites - never thought of the dual purpose bit.
  • Kazakhstan's authoritarian leader says he has ordered security forces to "fire without warning", amid a violent crackdown on anti-government protests.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    If you have a report that a disease + condition X = *orders* of magnitude more bad outcomes.... well, it is not surprising that the medics are going "hey, throw that out the window, things are different now" without further evidence.
    We must have plenty of real world evidence now, either to the affirmative or to the contrary, given how many 'incidental' admissions we have sustained since omicron arrived. Has anyone run the numbers?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    IshmaelZ said:

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    Because vaccination turns out to be virtually useless at preventing asymptomatic infection, and asymptomatic infection is what we are talking about here. Sure, it might not prevent the actual infection, but magically by some unintended side effect circumvent all the complications which kill people under anaesthetic at, what, 30x the usual rate, but would you bet the farm on that if it was you being operated on? You seem to be having it both ways: affecting boredom at the quite striking news that 92 out of 92 vaccinated, negative tested cruise ships are covidified to the eyeballs, but attributing magical efficacy to vaccines in surgical cases here. Why the difference?
    Yes, why is 'incidental covid' not important all of a sudden? People trying to airbrush it away? I don't know.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited January 2022
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hunterston B nuclear power plant generates electricity no more. Shutdown was reportedly due at noon.

    Luckily it's sunny here so I don't need to check whether the lights still come on. Yet.

    Incidentally, a WhatApp environmentalist group I have sneaked into, is trying to raise a thing about the Rolls Royce mini-nukes.

    They are claiming, that since they will be built one-piece in a factory and placed on the grounds of existing or semi-decommissioned nuclear power stations, that they are an "end-run" around the proper decades of planning enquiries etc.
    Hold on, wasn't that in the RR documentation, that they can use pre-existing nuclear power infrastructure with their mini-nukes? It's hardly some big conspiracy that they would use existing sites which have got grid and security infrastructure already in place.
    Oh indeed - in fact that was the first thing I thought of. While mini-nukes are less efficient etc, they are more buildable.

    Because they can be built in a factory (with knowledge/skills borrowed directly from building submarine reactors), and placed on existing nuclear power station sites.

    The "end-run" around the planning issues is part of the pitch for them.

    Bit like why I think that much of the power storage in the UK may well end up being containers of batteries.

    The government has put in a ruling that small (few MWH) storage systems don't need full power station style planning approval. At which point it is rather had to stop someone parking a handful of containers somewhere and hooking them up to the grid. Bet that happens at the petrol stations turned into charging sites.....

    Meanwhile tidal ponds will be stuck in the external rounds of planning/environmental enquiries. Probably until the UNIX clock wraps around.
    Nice catch on the petrol station into battery storage units alongside charging sites - never thought of the dual purpose bit.
    The other one for battery storage will be on power station and ex-power station sites. It will be very hard to stop a container park on one of them, I reckon.

    EDIT: The first use for the batteries on charging sites is demand smoothing. With more capacity, you could time shift power, on a day to day basis. With even more capacity you could time shift power to sell back to the grid..... Think localised grid backup, spread throughout the country....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    MaxPB said:

    From posts this morning, it's clear that the axiomatic obsession with 'cases' continues largely unabated in some circles.

    Ha.

    While the boosters have further disconnected COVID cases from hospitalisation and deaths (and Omicron itself seems to have had some effect), it is clear that a numbers of people are getting sick and dying.

    It is beginning to look as if we *may* be able to get through this wave without Italy style medical collapse, but it won't be jolly in the hospitals for a while.
    3.5m infections in England (mostly Omicron) has resulted in somewhere around 8-9k in hospital for COVID in England and a further 6-8k with COVID. The infection hospitalisation rate must be miniscule. We're talking maybe 0.2% of infected people requiring an overnight stay in hospital for Omicron.

    The biggest threat to hospitals is isolation rules. Making people who are perfectly fine stay home for at least 7 days is why the NHS is under pressure right now.

    That's interesting, because when I did my back-of-a-fag-packet, Not A Mathematician, exercise the the other day, I ended up with ~0.2% IHR too. I thought it too low to be true, but maybe you are right. I would certainly trust your numbers over my own amateurish efforts.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277

    Kazakhstan's authoritarian leader says he has ordered security forces to "fire without warning", amid a violent crackdown on anti-government protests.

    Didn't Tony get a job as a PR adviser for the Kazakhstan government a few years ago?

    More flak coming his way lol? ;)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    987k now signed the Tony Blair knighthood to be rescinded petition

    Haven't bothered to sign it yet but I might try and be the 1 millionth signature!

    One of the problems I find with Google these days is that if I try to Google something that is in the newspapers I get masses of search results for news articles about the thing, but it's really hard to get a search result for the thing itself (and most news articles are really bad at providing outward links on their stories).

    Took me ages to find the petition in question. Haven't decided whether to sign it though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    If you have a report that a disease + condition X = *orders* of magnitude more bad outcomes.... well, it is not surprising that the medics are going "hey, throw that out the window, things are different now" without further evidence.
    We must have plenty of real world evidence now, either to the affirmative or to the contrary, given how many 'incidental' admissions we have sustained since omicron arrived. Has anyone run the numbers?
    You'd be wanting a clinical trial grade of evidence, no? Too many cross-correlations to rely on raw data, however. And no sane medic would put half the patients in the 'wrong' side with such a whacking disparity in anaesthesia outcomes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    Because vaccination turns out to be virtually useless at preventing asymptomatic infection, and asymptomatic infection is what we are talking about here. Sure, it might not prevent the actual infection, but magically by some unintended side effect circumvent all the complications which kill people under anaesthetic at, what, 30x the usual rate, but would you bet the farm on that if it was you being operated on? You seem to be having it both ways: affecting boredom at the quite striking news that 92 out of 92 vaccinated, negative tested cruise ships are covidified to the eyeballs, but attributing magical efficacy to vaccines in surgical cases here. Why the difference?
    I'm doing neither – I am simply saying that we must have the evidence from real world cases, rather than an ancient report that dates back to alpha-pre-vax times. Why not run the numbers on what we have?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    maaarsh said:

    Weekly update out from NHS on the real numbers.

    Yesterday it looked like Covid hospital numbers peaked on the 5th at around 4,100.

    Latest update only covers to the 4th, but on that day the number in acute trusts actually being treated for Covid was 2,026.

    So on the inflated numbers the hospital peak is half last year. And of that roughly half is either not really covid or not acute.

    Don't get me started on the 'incidental' admissions nonsense – I will end up boring PBers to death! Incidental covid admissions is an oxymoron – given that by their very definition such people are not admitted for covid.

    (And yes, I know, I know – they still need to be sequestered in a covid ward. But still...)
    But then, as @Foxy points out, medical outcomes for people with various conditions and a side order of COVID are massively different....

    Are you referring to the Nature paper he has cited, which uses ancient data from the pre-vaccine, alpha age?
    Even if it is out of date, the changes in outcome were so radical that the medics will have to take the same precautions until proven otherwise.....
    Not clear to me why a pre-vaccination report has much relevance TBH, but happy to be corrected.
    Because vaccination turns out to be virtually useless at preventing asymptomatic infection, and asymptomatic infection is what we are talking about here. Sure, it might not prevent the actual infection, but magically by some unintended side effect circumvent all the complications which kill people under anaesthetic at, what, 30x the usual rate, but would you bet the farm on that if it was you being operated on? You seem to be having it both ways: affecting boredom at the quite striking news that 92 out of 92 vaccinated, negative tested cruise ships are covidified to the eyeballs, but attributing magical efficacy to vaccines in surgical cases here. Why the difference?
    Yes, why is 'incidental covid' not important all of a sudden? People trying to airbrush it away? I don't know.
    It's not "not important", but it is important to make clear how much of the recent rise in daily admissions and numbers in hospital is specifically due to Covid (which places strain on the NHS directly, as they have to find them a bed) and how much is just because Omicron is everywhere (which only induces secondary strains; because they already would've had to find them a bed anyway).

    Basically, the proportion of incidental admissions is (probably) much reduced from what it was under Delta, so 2k admission daily now is not the same as 2k admissions daily was then.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Keir Starmer on legal case for war in Iraq ( before he became a useless nonentity)
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/mar/17/foreignpolicy.iraq1
  • It is a bit like his immigration policy. One or two are fine but he is against one arriving every few months.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    I believe he has been vaccinated, but doesn't like booster jabs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    Farage is an idiot and an attention seeker.

    He deserves his place in history (for good or bad) for forcing Cameron to offer the referendum but beyond that the man is a complete and utter fool...
  • maaarsh said:

    Czech tennis player Renata Voracova in medical detention in Australia

    I've hated Novak since he turned pro, always faking injury when he was losing, but the last week is making me give him another chance.

    Total bait and switch con from the Australian government to try and create hate figures to distract from their own cock ups.

    The idea that vaccinating extremely fit sports people offers any wider societal benefit beyond the individual concerned is risible. The spread limiting of Omicron by double jabbed is pretty worthless, and these people have the squareroot of bugger alls chance of clogging up the Australian health care system. At this point it's just bullying, demanding compliance and orchestrating a 2 minute hate.
    No.

    The Australia government has every right to set entry conditions. Mandatory vaccination for entry is an old, old requirement for some countries and diseases.

    Bullshitting on entry/visa paperwork is never a good plan.

    If he doesn't want the vaccination for "reasons", he could easily stay at home and enjoy a nice cup of tea.
    People who were previously admiring of Australia taking control of its own borders seem a little conflicted.
    I’d have a tiny bit more respect for Novak if he was honest about his antivax position rather than this weasely attempt to have his cake and eat it. The whiny, hyperbolic martyrdom stuff isn’t helping.
    Would he have more respect if he was spouting anti-vax stuff at every single press conference rather than not answering questions on it? I very much doubt he would, and the press would be relentless in getting him to say it over and over.

    Once he is an anti vaxxer, extremely famous and his job/ambitions require him to stay in the public spotlight he has no good options available (other than to stop being an anti-vaxxer of course).
    A ‘restrained’ antivax position, if that’s not an oxymoron, would be to do what he’s been doing all along and say he feels he shouldn’t have to reveal his vaccination status and therefore he wouldn’t be competing in the Oz open. Loophole finding is not a good look.
This discussion has been closed.