Even though it’s Xmas the Tory poll gloom continues – politicalbetting.com
Even though it’s Xmas the Tory poll gloom continues – politicalbetting.com
New @OpiniumResearch has latest net approval ratingsJohnson: -31 (+4)Starmer: +4 (+6) – highest since AprilSo Starmer leads Johnson with a 35% margin
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It is only a matter of time
Two solid polls for Labour though the Conservatives off their very lowest share. Nonetheless Opinium is a 9.5% swing from Conservative to Labour while Focaldata (with nearly 25,000 respondents) is a 10% swing.
The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 5.5% and of course none of that has factored in any kind of tactical voting which could weaken the Conservative vote further.
I suspect this will be the cue for a significant Government New Year relaunch in which I expect Liz Truss to play a leading role and some of the younger second ranking Ministers to get more airtime.
Starmer can't afford to sit idly on his lead which may not be as permanent as he might hope. He's no fool so I expect Labour to be more active politically and from them I expect to see Rachel Reeves front and centre - she's made a strong start as Shadow CoE.
Whether this unpopularity will sustain is another matter, with the secondary issue of whether a strategically good call on a change of leader is sufficient (if necessary). One unknown is how much their success in Labour's traditional heartlands was down to Johnson, and Johnson uniquely, which creates additional problems for 'easy' resolution. But it is not obvious why they are going to come flocking back to Labour at this time.
It isn't only a Tory fall
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.
But, uniquely, whilst everyone has an opinion, all are united in wishing it would just go away forthwith.
Everything else is a sideshow tbh.
So, it comes down to competence really.
But as the election comes closer there will be a lot of reversion to type and closer editorial control over the political slant of the stories pursued.
From the last 30 hours there seems to be plenty of money getting spent in pubs.
At least in Yorkshire.
At which point it's not just politically damaging...
As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.
Merry Christmas and Boxing Day.
How full the supermarkets are.
The buy now pay later sector doesn’t work at “normal” interest rates. As you said, the fancy vehicle leasing that has become the norm is far less viable @4% interest rates, or whatever. And negative equity in the housing market has the potential to seriously screw over a section of the Tory client vote.
We’ll see what happens. I don’t think labour have any real solutions to our underlying economic problems, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t benefit at the polls.
😉
Yes, not wholly convinced.
Starmer "may" turn out inadvertently to be the ideal leader for the post-Covid era - reassuringly dull and managerial.
The truth is we have kicked the can of so many difficult decisions down the road for so long we are running out of both road and can.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021
Former President Trump renews praise for Covid vaccines, "one of the greatest achievements of mankind."
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1474074088092180495
A trip to the hifi repair shop beckons.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?
BoJo has got away with so much for so long that he thought he'd get away with this as well.
Only question is whether he was aiming to help out a pal/minion or exploit the situation to help himself with his own Standards issues.
ToryGovernments eventuallyTime to regroup, go back to normality and be a party of the centre ground once again. Perhaps I'll vote for them in the future if Labour also get arrogant
That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.
Cameron allowed ministers time and didn't micromanage them. That gave him enough time to chillaxe
… no one ever treats their own opinion about Die Hard as a Christmas movie as helping to sustain the powerful curse that is the conversation about Die Hard as a Christmas movie. Not even the person who started it all by accident.
After he’d done a Google search and seen the extent of the mess, Agger compared himself to a guy who tosses an apple core over his shoulder, then comes back to the same spot years later to find a full-grown tree. Minutes later, he emailed me to correct the metaphor: “I’m the guy who threw a cigarette out the window and accidentally burned down the forest!”…
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/12/is-die-hard-christmas-movie/620926/
Paterson
The old farts who backed him up (including St Jeremy Hunt)
Spencer and Mogg - whose job is was to deal with Paterson
Boris
Did any of them not consider the risk/reward return of going all-in on Paterson ?
Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)
I must say CHB who repeatedly laughed at for backing Labour poll leads this year when it was unfashionable deserves a lot of kudos for that.
What are the current odds you'd get on Labour gaining Ceredigion? I mean the Scotland predictions are weird, but the MRP suggests that Starmer would do better in Wales than Tony Blair did...
Am I alone in thinking that these polls are not particularly bad for a miid-term Government? You have to take them in context of course and the trend is certainly not Boris's friend but the remedy of switching leaders is always open to them and might well do the trick.
Here's to a prosperous 2022.
But thinking that rules are only for others and letting the world know that you think rules are only for others are two different things.
And I never mentioned Blairism; I don't think it was a 'thing'. But I do think Blair had a number of social and economic changes he wanted to make and did make in those early years. Just my view, it's all subjective / open to interpretation.
Whether they are capable of doing those two things I don't know.
** Mistakes might be forgiven but not learning from them and continually repeating them cannot be.
I am still surprised at just how well Labour did across most of Wales in the recent assembly election outside of the Welsh speaking Plaid strongholds (despite repeated murmurings of their potential demise since 2015).
Smarmy liar with ultra high tolerance for anti semitism, and prejudice in favour of doggie woggies vs darkie warkies, underlines Hannah Arendt's genius as phrasemaker.
Probably best I go to bed.
Paging as usual @Malky @Stodge and @anyone who wants to join in PBs Morning Line thing and share love of the sport or add racing tips.
I do appreciate not every gambler loves sharing, or sharing publicly. But I suspect some people reading PB may be putting on bets or accumulators regular on a Saturday (or Boxing Day) as I will be placing bets today (big time) that means doing a degree of “due diligence” on my choices, I don’t mind sharing what led to my decision if you like to use it with your own workings to complete your slip 🙂
I tend to go for hurdles, as there is I think less risk. Similarly I prefer front runners who like to take it on and make honest race.
MoonRabbits tips this week.
Firstly, posting early without checking mornings non runners because, tickets in one pocket, covid results in other I will be at Wetherby tomorrow. 🥳. Has anyone been looking forward more to taking a picnic out into darkness, rain, freezing cold easterly before? Not bloody likely. I spent 35 minutes staring at a bit of plastic letting it know what would happen if it gave another red, it wasn’t stupid enough to defy me 😃
Weather likely to be much nicer and going less soft at Sunbury on Thames. I’m going to tip for five races considering the research I have done into Wetherby. 🙂
Kempton 13:20 - Bothwell Bridge
Why? Pro Tipsters fancy Danny Kirwan more, my reading of their racing history I feel Bothwell is faster over the distance and going. (nb)
Wetherby 14:10 - Empire Still (NAP)
Why. Going already officially soft. Although Good Boy Bobby proved form taking impressive Aye Right to within a head, I’m not convinced has the distance, so I am picking Empire on proven distance.
Kempton 14:30 Christmas Hurdle - Tritonic. (nb)
Why? I tipped Not So Sleepy to a dead heat with Epatante at Newcastle couple of weeks ago, my note book has how impressed I was with Tritonic’s finishing in a recent race, I’m backing my notebook to provide the challenge to Epatante this time. Form, though maybe conceding freshness in legs.
Wetherby 14:45 - Into Overdrive. (Long Shot).
Why? Distance and potential. There’s seven races 4 hurdles at Wetherby, I have scanned the card and like much however without being entirely convinced in any of them - I will be on win bets in every race and possibly lose everything. The two I’m posting here I have the strongest confidence about.
Kempton 15:05 King George - Chantry House (but only just)
Why? My pick over Frodon, though last years winner is excellent jumper, and I lurrrrv front runners, there is no room for error in a race like this, and looking at Frodon over three miles, the further over three miles the less convincing the result, so House over Frodon on better suited to distance.
Best of luck everyone. Take care and enjoy holidays!
But on the polls, has anybody considered that while they're mostly about Boris's woes, they're also about Starmer's improvement? It strikes me that over the last couple of months he's become more confident, has started smiling more, and thinks that he can take Boris down? The policies can come later, I think.
Personally I'd find it highly amusing to watch the whole PCP scene go up in smoke, followed by the collapse of a lot of the worst bits of the car industry (not necessarily a bad thing - if Opel, Renault and Nissan collapsed tomorrow, there wouldn't be one less car actually worth buying available - they all produce appalingly poor products), but I imagine that if the PCP thing goes sour, the car manufacturers would run squealing to governments who would then hand over our hard earned taxes to bale then out.
More generally, one of the changes in lots of areas over the last 20 years has been the rise of fixed interest rate deals. Almost no one has there mortgage on a tracker these days, people who would have been on trackers are now typically on 2 year fixes or similar. This means that the effects of a rise in interest rates takes much longer to work through than it would have done, as instead of hitting most home owners within a month, it now takes a median of around a year.
The big driver of inflation next year is likely to be retail energy prices - I can't see that raising interest rates will do anything to help with that, so I'm assuming the BOE probably won't.
So...England lose the toss and have been put in on a green looking wicket.
How many runs on the board at the first wicket? Got to be less than 10.
So predictable.
Might not make 10 before the second goes down...
It is only the second time in Test history England have had two openers under the age of 25 in a Test in Australia. The other was in 1883.
Which at least provides a moment’s distraction from the inevitable defeat.
I’m off to bed.
Happy Christmas all.
I'd have to look at the polling detail in depth, perhaps averaged over a few different polls, to see how much is due to the don't know effect, and how much is extra support won by Starmer's Labour, but I think the don't know effect is dominant.
It's a start.
But I agree about inflationary pressures. It won’t be cheap credit but scarcity that leads to it. Not just of energy either. The shortage of lorry drivers and food chain workers hasn’t gone away and higher wagea there are going to squeeze us.
Root may survive for want of alternatives, although bluntly for his own sake I hope he quits.
Bur with Thorpe, Collingwood, Jon Lewis and Richard Dawson all available as coaches surely Silverwood is toast?