Even though it’s Xmas the Tory poll gloom continues – politicalbetting.com

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Even though it’s Xmas the Tory poll gloom continues – politicalbetting.com

New @OpiniumResearch has latest net approval ratingsJohnson: -31 (+4)Starmer: +4 (+6) – highest since AprilSo Starmer leads Johnson with a 35% margin

Read the full story here

tlg86

First.

solarflare

I hope everyone has been well fed, watered and presented as I have been. Nieces ecstatic with their presents, some decent new books for me to read, and plenty of cheese available for snacking on over the next few days. Hope everyone in PB land has had an equally good Christmas.

CorrectHorseBattery

That's a large increase for Johnson and Starmer, anything that would explain that?

Gallowgate

Merry Christmas PB

Big_G_NorthWales

The longer these negative polls continue the shorter Boris's term as PM will be

IshmaelZ

Thoughts n prayers with the Tories. Do they know it's Christmas time at all?

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The longer these negative polls continue the shorter Boris's term as PM will be

Boris needs to keep pushing the boosters and avoid no further restrictions. If he does he might get a poll bounce, if not he likely faces a VONC after the local elections in May

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The longer these negative polls continue the shorter Boris's term as PM will be

Boris needs to keep pushing the boosters and avoid no further restrictions. If he does he might get a poll bounce, if not he likely faces a VONC after the local elections in May

Boris has no way back but fortunately for the country the cabinet are now in control

It is only a matter of time

CorrectHorseBattery

If the cabinet are in control God help us

stodge

Evening all

Two solid polls for Labour though the Conservatives off their very lowest share. Nonetheless Opinium is a 9.5% swing from Conservative to Labour while Focaldata (with nearly 25,000 respondents) is a 10% swing.

The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 5.5% and of course none of that has factored in any kind of tactical voting which could weaken the Conservative vote further.

I suspect this will be the cue for a significant Government New Year relaunch in which I expect Liz Truss to play a leading role and some of the younger second ranking Ministers to get more airtime.

Starmer can't afford to sit idly on his lead which may not be as permanent as he might hope. He's no fool so I expect Labour to be more active politically and from them I expect to see Rachel Reeves front and centre - she's made a strong start as Shadow CoE.

FrankBooth

Given the date it's best to ignore the covid figures for a few days. What else would there be to talk about?

Big_G_NorthWales

stodge said:

Evening all

Two solid polls for Labour though the Conservatives off their very lowest share. Nonetheless Opinium is a 9.5% swing from Conservative to Labour while Focaldata (with nearly 25,000 respondents) is a 10% swing.

The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 5.5% and of course none of that has factored in any kind of tactical voting which could weaken the Conservative vote further.

I suspect this will be the cue for a significant Government New Year relaunch in which I expect Liz Truss to play a leading role and some of the younger second ranking Ministers to get more airtime.

Starmer can't afford to sit idly on his lead which may not be as permanent as he might hope. He's no fool so I expect Labour to be more active politically and from them I expect to see Rachel Reeves front and centre - she's made a strong start as Shadow CoE.

Fair comment

dixiedean

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If the cabinet are in control God help us

Agreed.

alex_

The issue for Labour is that it is difficult to see much that they have done particularly to have earned their poll lead. Seems to me that at present the polling is almost entirely a consequence of current Tory, and perhaps particularly Johnsonian, unpopularity. And popularity on the back of a series of extremely negative press for a sustained period. Classic mid-terms blues.

Whether this unpopularity will sustain is another matter, with the secondary issue of whether a strategically good call on a change of leader is sufficient (if necessary). One unknown is how much their success in Labour's traditional heartlands was down to Johnson, and Johnson uniquely, which creates additional problems for 'easy' resolution. But it is not obvious why they are going to come flocking back to Labour at this time.

CorrectHorseBattery

alex_ said:

The issue for Labour is that it is difficult to see much that they have done particularly to have earned their poll lead. Seems to me that at present the polling is almost entirely a consequence of current Tory, and perhaps particularly Johnsonian, unpopularity. And popularity on the back of a series of extremely negative press for a sustained period. Classic mid-terms blues.

Whether this unpopularity will sustain is another matter, with the secondary issue of whether a strategically good call on a change of leader is sufficient (if necessary). One unknown is how much their success in Labour's traditional heartlands was down to Johnson, and Johnson uniquely, which creates additional problems for 'easy' resolution. But it is not obvious why they are going to come flocking back to Labour at this time.

I would agree except Starmer's personal ratings have also improved significantly, indeed with Opinium he's now net positive.

It isn't only a Tory fall

alex_

CorrectHorseBattery said:

alex_ said:

The issue for Labour is that it is difficult to see much that they have done particularly to have earned their poll lead. Seems to me that at present the polling is almost entirely a consequence of current Tory, and perhaps particularly Johnsonian, unpopularity. And popularity on the back of a series of extremely negative press for a sustained period. Classic mid-terms blues.

Whether this unpopularity will sustain is another matter, with the secondary issue of whether a strategically good call on a change of leader is sufficient (if necessary). One unknown is how much their success in Labour's traditional heartlands was down to Johnson, and Johnson uniquely, which creates additional problems for 'easy' resolution. But it is not obvious why they are going to come flocking back to Labour at this time.

I would agree except Starmer's personal ratings have also improved significantly, indeed with Opinium he's now net positive.

It isn't only a Tory fall

But again, not obvious quite what he has done to earn these improvements. Other than be Johnson's main opponent, and gain by comparison. It could of course be that a reappraisal of Johnson could in itself be prompting a concurrent reappraisal of Starmer, and some of the improvement in his ratings will be sustainable.

Gallowgate

@alex_ Tory electoral strategy from 2008 - 2014 ish was basically “vote for us because we’re not Labour”

alex_

Gallowgate said:

@alex_ Tory electoral strategy from 2008 - 2014 ish was basically “vote for us because we’re not Labour”

I think that's an oversimplification. Cameron did a lot to change perceptions of the party to drive away the negatives from the previous decade. Even if that didn't encourage people to vote positively for them, it at least did a lot to neutralise at least a meaningful proportion of the "anyone but a Tory vote". I suppose to be fair you could argue that Starmer is doing the same thing to an extent - although Cameron had a bit more policy substance (a bit, not a lot) to back it up. Maybe in Labour's case the lack of policy substance compared to Corbyn's offerings has the same effect...

CorrectHorseBattery

alex_ said:

Gallowgate said:

@alex_ Tory electoral strategy from 2008 - 2014 ish was basically “vote for us because we’re not Labour”

I think that's an oversimplification. Cameron did a lot to change perceptions of the party to drive away the negatives from the previous decade. Even if that didn't encourage people to vote positively for them, it at least did a lot to neutralise at least a meaningful proportion of the "anyone but a Tory vote". I suppose to be fair you could argue that Starmer is doing the same thing to an extent...

Good comment - and I've said before Starmer needs to emulate Cameron not Blair, to win power

Scott_xP

...

alex_

For those desperate for the Govt to hold the line against meaningful restrictions, all this polling could in some way offer a crumb of comfort. The Tories will increasingly be desperate to move away from Covid and get onto other topics. New restrictions just keep the whole thing going for months (and possibly years because failing to hold the line quite possibly means all the same pressures building up next winter at a minimum). Maybe it all goes wrong - but the possibility of it going very right may be a gamble they are prepared to take...

dixiedean

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

alex_

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Although whether continuing to do and/or offer "not much" is something that the Labour Party are prepared to continue with is another matter. Obviously the polls will comfort them. But the voices from the Blairite right, in particular will be saying they need more and not to fall into a comfort zone that could unravel. And those on the left will be wary of giving Starmer a free hand.

dixiedean

alex_ said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Although whether continuing to do and/or offer "not much" is something that the Labour Party are prepared to continue with is another matter.

Agreed. Though I do find it difficult to see what can really be offered. They can't really tax and spend much more. Nor is the public mood for retrenchment. The economy is a mess for years, frankly. There has been just one big story dominating.
But, uniquely, whilst everyone has an opinion, all are united in wishing it would just go away forthwith.
Everything else is a sideshow tbh.
So, it comes down to competence really.

alex_

Another easily overlooked factor (if looking towards the next election, perhaps less so if looking towards Johnson’s chances of leading into that election) is that the Govt is currently getting it in the neck from all sides of the media, left and right. A luxury those who might be extremely wary of a Labour govt feel they can afford with the next election still quite a long way away. An if they have determined that Johnson is a loser then they can’t give him long.

But as the election comes closer there will be a lot of reversion to type and closer editorial control over the political slant of the stories pursued.

IanB2

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

another_richard

Hope everyone's having a good day.

From the last 30 hours there seems to be plenty of money getting spent in pubs.

At least in Yorkshire.

Nigelb

.

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later...

Agreed - until it gets out if control, which is what tends to happen when resorted to as a solution to economic problems.
At which point it's not just politically damaging...

Mexicanpete

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

I disagree, inflation could do for the Cons. Super cheap borrowing has been the Tories best friend for the last decade. Should inflation impact on interest and mortgage rates and not by a great deal in the grand scheme of things for repayments to rise and homes and BMWs to be repossessed.

As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.

Verulamius

The opinium poll is comparatively good for the LibDems as opinium generally has LibDems around 2pts lower than other polling companies on average.

Merry Christmas and Boxing Day.

another_richard

FrankBooth said:

Given the date it's best to ignore the covid figures for a few days. What else would there be to talk about?

How busy the pubs / restaurants / shops are.

How full the supermarkets are.

IanB2

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

I disagree, inflation could do for the Cons. Super cheap borrowing has been the Tories best friend for the last decade. Should inflation impact on interest and mortgage rates and not by a great deal in the grand scheme of things for repayments to rise and homes and BMWs to be repossessed.

As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.

For sure, but all the political actions which could be seen as charting a way back to normality are politically worse. Which is why politicians across the world have been spinning the plates and hoping to get to pass the problem on to their successors. Nearly fifteen years of that, and here we are.

ping

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

I disagree, inflation could do for the Cons. Super cheap borrowing has been the Tories best friend for the last decade. Should inflation impact on interest and mortgage rates and not by a great deal in the grand scheme of things for repayments to rise and homes and BMWs to be repossessed.

As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.

Whole chunks of the economy only make sense with zero, or near zero interest rates.

The buy now pay later sector doesn’t work at “normal” interest rates. As you said, the fancy vehicle leasing that has become the norm is far less viable @4% interest rates, or whatever. And negative equity in the housing market has the potential to seriously screw over a section of the Tory client vote.

We’ll see what happens. I don’t think labour have any real solutions to our underlying economic problems, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t benefit at the polls.

Charles

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If the cabinet are in control God help us

Given that you spent the last thread being rude about his representative I suspect “us” doesn’t include “you”…

😉

IanB2

ping said:

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

I disagree, inflation could do for the Cons. Super cheap borrowing has been the Tories best friend for the last decade. Should inflation impact on interest and mortgage rates and not by a great deal in the grand scheme of things for repayments to rise and homes and BMWs to be repossessed.

As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.

Whole chunks of the economy only make sense with zero, or near zero interest rates.

The buy now pay later sector doesn’t work at “normal” interest rates. As you said, the fancy vehicle leasing that has become the norm is far less viable @4% interest rates, or whatever. And negative equity in the housing market has the potential to seriously screw over a section of the Tory client vote.

We’ll see what happens. I don’t think labour have any real solutions to our underlying economic problems, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t benefit at the polls.

They could easily take office before the worst of it hits, and end up carrying the political can.

eek

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

I disagree, inflation could do for the Cons. Super cheap borrowing has been the Tories best friend for the last decade. Should inflation impact on interest and mortgage rates and not by a great deal in the grand scheme of things for repayments to rise and homes and BMWs to be repossessed.

As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.

If things play out the way I expect them 2 a lot of people will be going from 2 leased X1s to whatever banger they can afford without any credit. If inflation kicks off at all it won’t be pleasant

CorrectHorseBattery

Charles said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If the cabinet are in control God help us

Given that you spent the last thread being rude about his representative I suspect “us” doesn’t include “you”…

😉

Hope you're having a lovely Christmas Charles

stodge

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

There will be those who worship at the altar of the Laffer Curve and argue tax cuts are the only way forward. Take that to its logical extent and if we paid no taxes we'd all be happy.

Yes, not wholly convinced.

Starmer "may" turn out inadvertently to be the ideal leader for the post-Covid era - reassuringly dull and managerial.

The truth is we have kicked the can of so many difficult decisions down the road for so long we are running out of both road and can.

Andy_JS

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

SandyRentool

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

Outliers. The lot of them!

Nigelb

The words of praise Biden had for Trump recently seem to have had the right effect.
Former President Trump renews praise for Covid vaccines, "one of the greatest achievements of mankind."
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1474074088092180495

SandyRentool

Off topic: Earlier, I managed to insert a CD into a CD player that already had a disc in it. Remarkably, the first one plays, but neither of them will eject.

A trip to the hifi repair shop beckons.

Charles

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Charles said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If the cabinet are in control God help us

Given that you spent the last thread being rude about his representative I suspect “us” doesn’t include “you”…

😉

Hope you're having a lovely Christmas Charles

I am thank you. And I hope you are as well

Charles

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

It does seem that there have been a lot more polls since Labour took the lead (which I could imagine vacate it’s more newsworthy) but is this just my imagination?

dixiedean

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

CorrectHorseBattery

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

Stuartinromford

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Looks like classic hubris - nemesis.
BoJo has got away with so much for so long that he thought he'd get away with this as well.

Only question is whether he was aiming to help out a pal/minion or exploit the situation to help himself with his own Standards issues.

IshmaelZ

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

CorrectHorseBattery

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Pretty much the same thing

AlistairM

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

CorrectHorseBattery

The Tories have been in Government too long.

Time to regroup, go back to normality and be a party of the centre ground once again. Perhaps I'll vote for them in the future if Labour also get arrogant

Benpointer

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Looks like classic hubris - nemesis.
BoJo has got away with so much for so long that he thought he'd get away with this as well.

Only question is whether he was aiming to help out a pal/minion or exploit the situation to help himself with his own Standards issues.

Whilst I don't discount either of those possibilities, I think there is a third: namely, that Boris feels he just doesn't have to worry about the rules on this... Which takes us back to arrogance and hubris.

Mexicanpete

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

They get to the point where they beat up on each other, normally just after the moment Len says the Labour Government has sold out to the owners of capital, as he rides off in his chauffeur driven Jaguar.

SandyRentool

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

CorrectHorseBattery

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

I respectfully disagree. In 2010 it was quite clear Labour had come to the end of the road

IshmaelZ

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

philiph

CorrectHorseBattery said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

I respectfully disagree. In 2010 it was quite clear Labour had come to the end of the road

Either that or they selected the wrong successor to Blair.

CorrectHorseBattery

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

philiph

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

I disagree
Cameron allowed ministers time and didn't micromanage them. That gave him enough time to chillaxe

turbotubbs

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Nigelb

The debate has ended.
… no one ever treats their own opinion about Die Hard as a Christmas movie as helping to sustain the powerful curse that is the conversation about Die Hard as a Christmas movie. Not even the person who started it all by accident.

After he’d done a Google search and seen the extent of the mess, Agger compared himself to a guy who tosses an apple core over his shoulder, then comes back to the same spot years later to find a full-grown tree. Minutes later, he emailed me to correct the metaphor: “I’m the guy who threw a cigarette out the window and accidentally burned down the forest!”…
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/12/is-die-hard-christmas-movie/620926/

Benpointer

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

The tragedy of Johnson was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it he turned out to be a lazy, lying, incompetent f*cker.

IshmaelZ

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

another_richard

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Really does seem to have been mass delusion:

Paterson
The old farts who backed him up (including St Jeremy Hunt)
Spencer and Mogg - whose job is was to deal with Paterson
Boris

Did any of them not consider the risk/reward return of going all-in on Paterson ?

turbotubbs

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Fair point

Benpointer

another_richard said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Really does seem to have been mass delusion:

Paterson
The old farts who backed him up (including St Jeremy Hunt)
Spencer and Mogg - whose job is was to deal with Paterson
Boris

Did any of them not consider the risk/reward return of going all-in on Paterson ?

I suspect they thought the rules were for others, 'we don't need to worry too much about them'. Hubris.

Benpointer

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

Jonathan

Labour poll leads can only be a good thing for our politics. It needs to be competitive. But I am under no illusion that Labour are close to winning yet. It’s now a possibility. That’s delightful progress.


I must say CHB who repeatedly laughed at for backing Labour poll leads this year when it was unfashionable deserves a lot of kudos for that.

RandallFlagg

So let's just assume that the Times-YouGov MRP is in any way accurate...
What are the current odds you'd get on Labour gaining Ceredigion? I mean the Scotland predictions are weird, but the MRP suggests that Starmer would do better in Wales than Tony Blair did...

Peter_the_Punter

Happy Christmas everyone. Hope you all enjoyed yours. Mine was necessarily restricted but pleasant nevertheless.

Am I alone in thinking that these polls are not particularly bad for a miid-term Government? You have to take them in context of course and the trend is certainly not Boris's friend but the remedy of switching leaders is always open to them and might well do the trick.

Here's to a prosperous 2022.

IshmaelZ

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

You think they weren't trying? And you think Blairism was ever a thing? Rly?

another_richard

Benpointer said:

another_richard said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Really does seem to have been mass delusion:

Paterson
The old farts who backed him up (including St Jeremy Hunt)
Spencer and Mogg - whose job is was to deal with Paterson
Boris

Did any of them not consider the risk/reward return of going all-in on Paterson ?

I suspect they thought the rules were for others, 'we don't need to worry too much about them'. Hubris.

Sure.

But thinking that rules are only for others and letting the world know that you think rules are only for others are two different things.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

John Major at the Pavarotti concert from Hyde Park in the rain from 1991 with Princess Diana being replayed on BBC2 now

NickPalmer

alex_ said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Although whether continuing to do and/or offer "not much" is something that the Labour Party are prepared to continue with is another matter. Obviously the polls will comfort them. But the voices from the Blairite right, in particular will be saying they need more and not to fall into a comfort zone that could unravel. And those on the left will be wary of giving Starmer a free hand.

There's something of a consensus across the party that we'll need to highlight some reasonable priorities before the election - while Dixiedean is right that voters have tired of excitement, you can't just say "we're competent, so vote for us" - they want a general idea of the direction. Equally, I do see we can't do it now - still in the pandemic, 2 years from an election, it'd look irrelevant if we suddenly came up with (say) a Plan for Infrastructure.

Benpointer

IshmaelZ said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

You think they weren't trying? And you think Blairism was ever a thing? Rly?

Sure they were trying at the end, but not like Gordon Brown's 10 years as the annointed successor.

And I never mentioned Blairism; I don't think it was a 'thing'. But I do think Blair had a number of social and economic changes he wanted to make and did make in those early years. Just my view, it's all subjective / open to interpretation.

another_richard

Peter_the_Punter said:

Happy Christmas everyone. Hope you all enjoyed yours. Mine was necessarily restricted but pleasant nevertheless.

Am I alone in thinking that these polls are not particularly bad for a miid-term Government? You have to take them in context of course and the trend is certainly not Boris's friend but the remedy of switching leaders is always open to them and might well do the trick.

Here's to a prosperous 2022.

There certainly recoverable but one requirement for recovery for the Conservatives is them understanding what they have done wrong and changing ** so they do not continue to make those mistakes.

Whether they are capable of doing those two things I don't know.

** Mistakes might be forgiven but not learning from them and continually repeating them cannot be.

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

John Major at the Pavarotti concert from Hyde Park in the rain from 1991 with Princess Diana being replayed on BBC2 now

The dullness signifier per word count of that post is off the scale.

Gary_Burton

RandallFlagg said:

So let's just assume that Times-YouGove is any way accurate...
What are the current odds you'd get on Labour gaining Ceredigion? I mean the Scotland predictions are weird, but the MRP suggests that Starmer would do better in Wales than Tony Blair did...

Ceredigion is definitely not happening and Camarthen E is extremely unlikely although I don't think any of the other projected Labour gains even Monmouth and Clwyd West are implausible.

I am still surprised at just how well Labour did across most of Wales in the recent assembly election outside of the Welsh speaking Plaid strongholds (despite repeated murmurings of their potential demise since 2015).

IshmaelZ

NickPalmer said:

alex_ said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Although whether continuing to do and/or offer "not much" is something that the Labour Party are prepared to continue with is another matter. Obviously the polls will comfort them. But the voices from the Blairite right, in particular will be saying they need more and not to fall into a comfort zone that could unravel. And those on the left will be wary of giving Starmer a free hand.

There's something of a consensus across the party that we'll need to highlight some reasonable priorities before the election - while Dixiedean is right that voters have tired of excitement, you can't just say "we're competent, so vote for us" - they want a general idea of the direction. Equally, I do see we can't do it now - still in the pandemic, 2 years from an election, it'd look irrelevant if we suddenly came up with (say) a Plan for Infrastructure.

Tick tock.

Smarmy liar with ultra high tolerance for anti semitism, and prejudice in favour of doggie woggies vs darkie warkies, underlines Hannah Arendt's genius as phrasemaker.

Probably best I go to bed.

MoonRabbit

*Betting Post *🐎 Boxing Day
Paging as usual @Malky @Stodge and @anyone who wants to join in PBs Morning Line thing and share love of the sport or add racing tips.

I do appreciate not every gambler loves sharing, or sharing publicly. But I suspect some people reading PB may be putting on bets or accumulators regular on a Saturday (or Boxing Day) as I will be placing bets today (big time) that means doing a degree of “due diligence” on my choices, I don’t mind sharing what led to my decision if you like to use it with your own workings to complete your slip 🙂

I tend to go for hurdles, as there is I think less risk. Similarly I prefer front runners who like to take it on and make honest race.

MoonRabbits tips this week.

Firstly, posting early without checking mornings non runners because, tickets in one pocket, covid results in other I will be at Wetherby tomorrow. 🥳. Has anyone been looking forward more to taking a picnic out into darkness, rain, freezing cold easterly before? Not bloody likely. I spent 35 minutes staring at a bit of plastic letting it know what would happen if it gave another red, it wasn’t stupid enough to defy me 😃

Weather likely to be much nicer and going less soft at Sunbury on Thames. I’m going to tip for five races considering the research I have done into Wetherby. 🙂

Kempton 13:20 - Bothwell Bridge
Why? Pro Tipsters fancy Danny Kirwan more, my reading of their racing history I feel Bothwell is faster over the distance and going. (nb)

Wetherby 14:10 - Empire Still (NAP)
Why. Going already officially soft. Although Good Boy Bobby proved form taking impressive Aye Right to within a head, I’m not convinced has the distance, so I am picking Empire on proven distance.

Kempton 14:30 Christmas Hurdle - Tritonic. (nb)
Why? I tipped Not So Sleepy to a dead heat with Epatante at Newcastle couple of weeks ago, my note book has how impressed I was with Tritonic’s finishing in a recent race, I’m backing my notebook to provide the challenge to Epatante this time. Form, though maybe conceding freshness in legs.

Wetherby 14:45 - Into Overdrive. (Long Shot).
Why? Distance and potential. There’s seven races 4 hurdles at Wetherby, I have scanned the card and like much however without being entirely convinced in any of them - I will be on win bets in every race and possibly lose everything. The two I’m posting here I have the strongest confidence about.

Kempton 15:05 King George - Chantry House (but only just)
Why? My pick over Frodon, though last years winner is excellent jumper, and I lurrrrv front runners, there is no room for error in a race like this, and looking at Frodon over three miles, the further over three miles the less convincing the result, so House over Frodon on better suited to distance.

Best of luck everyone. Take care and enjoy holidays!

Northern_Al

Well, our guests have now gone and I'm at least half if not fully cut.

But on the polls, has anybody considered that while they're mostly about Boris's woes, they're also about Starmer's improvement? It strikes me that over the last couple of months he's become more confident, has started smiling more, and thinks that he can take Boris down? The policies can come later, I think.

HYUFD

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

John Major at the Pavarotti concert from Hyde Park in the rain from 1991 with Princess Diana being replayed on BBC2 now

The dullness signifier per word count of that post is off the scale.

Considering what you are spending Christmas Day night discussing, I don't think you are in a great position to lecture on being dull!

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

John Major at the Pavarotti concert from Hyde Park in the rain from 1991 with Princess Diana being replayed on BBC2 now

The dullness signifier per word count of that post is off the scale.

Considering what you are spending Christmas Day night discussing, I don't think you are in a great position to lecture on being dull!

Good point

Northern_Al

IshmaelZ said:

NickPalmer said:

alex_ said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Although whether continuing to do and/or offer "not much" is something that the Labour Party are prepared to continue with is another matter. Obviously the polls will comfort them. But the voices from the Blairite right, in particular will be saying they need more and not to fall into a comfort zone that could unravel. And those on the left will be wary of giving Starmer a free hand.

There's something of a consensus across the party that we'll need to highlight some reasonable priorities before the election - while Dixiedean is right that voters have tired of excitement, you can't just say "we're competent, so vote for us" - they want a general idea of the direction. Equally, I do see we can't do it now - still in the pandemic, 2 years from an election, it'd look irrelevant if we suddenly came up with (say) a Plan for Infrastructure.

Tick tock.

Smarmy liar with ultra high tolerance for anti semitism, and prejudice in favour of doggie woggies vs darkie warkies, underlines Hannah Arendt's genius as phrasemaker.

Probably best I go to bed.

Definitely, not probably.

CorrectHorseBattery

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

John Major at the Pavarotti concert from Hyde Park in the rain from 1991 with Princess Diana being replayed on BBC2 now

The dullness signifier per word count of that post is off the scale.

Considering what you are spending Christmas Day night discussing, I don't think you are in a great position to lecture on being dull!

You do you HYUFD, I enjoy your posts

theProle

eek said:

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

I disagree, inflation could do for the Cons. Super cheap borrowing has been the Tories best friend for the last decade. Should inflation impact on interest and mortgage rates and not by a great deal in the grand scheme of things for repayments to rise and homes and BMWs to be repossessed.

As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.

If things play out the way I expect them 2 a lot of people will be going from 2 leased X1s to whatever banger they can afford without any credit. If inflation kicks off at all it won’t be pleasant

People have (probably correctly) been worrying for some time that the whole PCP car thing is built on some rather shaky presumptions about the residual value of cars at the end of their leases. I presume that most of these deals are fixed interest rate (I've not read the small print as I wouldn't touch one with someone else's barge pole - I'm a bangernomics driver), so presumably rates ticking up won't result in repossessions, just mean that taking on another one at the end of the lease becomes unaffordable. Given that most manufacturers are only kept afloat by flogging cars on the never never, this will be a huge disaster for them.

Personally I'd find it highly amusing to watch the whole PCP scene go up in smoke, followed by the collapse of a lot of the worst bits of the car industry (not necessarily a bad thing - if Opel, Renault and Nissan collapsed tomorrow, there wouldn't be one less car actually worth buying available - they all produce appalingly poor products), but I imagine that if the PCP thing goes sour, the car manufacturers would run squealing to governments who would then hand over our hard earned taxes to bale then out.

More generally, one of the changes in lots of areas over the last 20 years has been the rise of fixed interest rate deals. Almost no one has there mortgage on a tracker these days, people who would have been on trackers are now typically on 2 year fixes or similar. This means that the effects of a rise in interest rates takes much longer to work through than it would have done, as instead of hitting most home owners within a month, it now takes a median of around a year.

The big driver of inflation next year is likely to be retail energy prices - I can't see that raising interest rates will do anything to help with that, so I'm assuming the BOE probably won't.

IshmaelZ

Northern_Al said:

IshmaelZ said:

NickPalmer said:

alex_ said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Although whether continuing to do and/or offer "not much" is something that the Labour Party are prepared to continue with is another matter. Obviously the polls will comfort them. But the voices from the Blairite right, in particular will be saying they need more and not to fall into a comfort zone that could unravel. And those on the left will be wary of giving Starmer a free hand.

There's something of a consensus across the party that we'll need to highlight some reasonable priorities before the election - while Dixiedean is right that voters have tired of excitement, you can't just say "we're competent, so vote for us" - they want a general idea of the direction. Equally, I do see we can't do it now - still in the pandemic, 2 years from an election, it'd look irrelevant if we suddenly came up with (say) a Plan for Infrastructure.

Tick tock.

Smarmy liar with ultra high tolerance for anti semitism, and prejudice in favour of doggie woggies vs darkie warkies, underlines Hannah Arendt's genius as phrasemaker.

Probably best I go to bed.

Definitely, not probably.

Tick tock and good night.

Flatlander

Merry Christmas all - well, the 5 minutes left of it anyway.

So...England lose the toss and have been put in on a green looking wicket.

How many runs on the board at the first wicket? Got to be less than 10.

DavidL

Excellent first half hour at the test. No wickets down.

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

John Major at the Pavarotti concert from Hyde Park in the rain from 1991 with Princess Diana being replayed on BBC2 now

The dullness signifier per word count of that post is off the scale.

Considering what you are spending Christmas Day night discussing, I don't think you are in a great position to lecture on being dull!

"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is that not why you are here?"

Sunil_Prasannan

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

SandyRentool said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

21 Labour opinion poll leads in a row.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021

They really are quite stunning when you look back at them.
Labour only really achieved parity about 6 weeks ago. And were still behind in a couple even this month.
Since then 21 on the trot. Smallest lead 4%.
It's been a gentle, almost imperceptible narrowing since June.
After Paterson freefall.
An unforced error out of a clear blue sky. WTF were they thinking?

Arrogance. This is what happens to all Tory Governments eventually

What happens eventually to Labour governments?

Too many voters succumb to false consciousness, thanks to the diet of propaganda served up by the Tory media.

Of course they do.

That comment embodies exactly what is most frightening about the lefty left, and what Orwell was on about. Voting con in 2010 was wrongthink, because it just can't be because Brown was a useless, idealess morally bankrupt wazzock. No way.

I think Brown was a better PM than Cameron but I still voted Tory because Labour had run out of ideas and talent and it was time for a change

The tragedy of Brown was that he spent so long trying to get to number 10, when he achieved it, he had no idea what to do with it.

Killer point, except what PM since Fatcha has that not been true of?

Well...

Major (had hardly 'spent so long trying to get to number 10', since he came to it by accident as the neither Thatcher or Hesletine candidate)
Blair (knew what he wanted to do and did it for the first term at least)
May (similar to Major, she came to it via the accident of Brexit)

John Major at the Pavarotti concert from Hyde Park in the rain from 1991 with Princess Diana being replayed on BBC2 now

The dullness signifier per word count of that post is off the scale.

Pavarotti was many things, but he was never dull!

Flatlander

Flatlander said:

Merry Christmas all - well, the 5 minutes left of it anyway.

So...England lose the toss and have been put in on a green looking wicket.

How many runs on the board at the first wicket? Got to be less than 10.

4.

So predictable.

Might not make 10 before the second goes down...

dixiedean

On a positive note. The ball may still be moving around when England come to bowl...

Nigelb

Fairly remarkable stat.
It is only the second time in Test history England have had two openers under the age of 25 in a Test in Australia. The other was in 1883.

Which at least provides a moment’s distraction from the inevitable defeat.
I’m off to bed.

Happy Christmas all.

LostPassword

Northern_Al said:

Well, our guests have now gone and I'm at least half if not fully cut.

But on the polls, has anybody considered that while they're mostly about Boris's woes, they're also about Starmer's improvement? It strikes me that over the last couple of months he's become more confident, has started smiling more, and thinks that he can take Boris down? The policies can come later, I think.

At this point it really is mostly about Tory 2019 voters now saying don't know. That's why all the opposition party vote shares are good.

I'd have to look at the polling detail in depth, perhaps averaged over a few different polls, to see how much is due to the don't know effect, and how much is extra support won by Starmer's Labour, but I think the don't know effect is dominant.

dixiedean

LostPassword said:

Northern_Al said:

Well, our guests have now gone and I'm at least half if not fully cut.

But on the polls, has anybody considered that while they're mostly about Boris's woes, they're also about Starmer's improvement? It strikes me that over the last couple of months he's become more confident, has started smiling more, and thinks that he can take Boris down? The policies can come later, I think.

At this point it really is mostly about Tory 2019 voters now saying don't know. That's why all the opposition party vote shares are good.

I'd have to look at the polling detail in depth, perhaps averaged over a few different polls, to see how much is due to the don't know effect, and how much is extra support won by Starmer's Labour, but I think the don't know effect is dominant.

Tory don't knows are a necessary, but not sufficient condition.
It's a start.

Andy_JS

3 down at luncheon.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

Excellent first half hour at the test. No wickets down.

You just had to open your mouth, didn’t you?

ydoethur

theProle said:

eek said:

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

Voters have been thrashing around for a radical solution to the GFC for a while now. Austerity, Brexit, a close brush with Corbynism, boosterist cakeism. None has particularly been successful.
In the absence of another big idea from either Party (and I don't spot an obvious one, nor one outwith the major Parties), voters may well shrug and plump for the most competent choice to manage their dissatisfaction. Plus. COVID has ground down any enthusiasm for experimentation tbh. Folk are aching for a quiet life personally. And that leaks into politics.
I think this explains the precipitous change in sentiment tbh. So, Labour hasn't done very much. That may be exactly what is required.

Inflation is the least politically damaging way out. We were always going to end up there, sooner or later. The question is how the downsides will be managed.

I disagree, inflation could do for the Cons. Super cheap borrowing has been the Tories best friend for the last decade. Should inflation impact on interest and mortgage rates and not by a great deal in the grand scheme of things for repayments to rise and homes and BMWs to be repossessed.

As Bozza's parties fade from memory driving around in an old Focus instead of a nearly new X1 will be an unpleasant reminder of what the Conservatives did for them.

If things play out the way I expect them 2 a lot of people will be going from 2 leased X1s to whatever banger they can afford without any credit. If inflation kicks off at all it won’t be pleasant

People have (probably correctly) been worrying for some time that the whole PCP car thing is built on some rather shaky presumptions about the residual value of cars at the end of their leases. I presume that most of these deals are fixed interest rate (I've not read the small print as I wouldn't touch one with someone else's barge pole - I'm a bangernomics driver), so presumably rates ticking up won't result in repossessions, just mean that taking on another one at the end of the lease becomes unaffordable. Given that most manufacturers are only kept afloat by flogging cars on the never never, this will be a huge disaster for them.

Personally I'd find it highly amusing to watch the whole PCP scene go up in smoke, followed by the collapse of a lot of the worst bits of the car industry (not necessarily a bad thing - if Opel, Renault and Nissan collapsed tomorrow, there wouldn't be one less car actually worth buying available - they all produce appalingly poor products), but I imagine that if the PCP thing goes sour, the car manufacturers would run squealing to governments who would then hand over our hard earned taxes to bale then out.

More generally, one of the changes in lots of areas over the last 20 years has been the rise of fixed interest rate deals. Almost no one has there mortgage on a tracker these days, people who would have been on trackers are now typically on 2 year fixes or similar. This means that the effects of a rise in interest rates takes much longer to work through than it would have done, as instead of hitting most home owners within a month, it now takes a median of around a year.

The big driver of inflation next year is likely to be retail energy prices - I can't see that raising interest rates will do anything to help with that, so I'm assuming the BOE probably won't.

I’m in the process of fixing my mortgage rate for five years. So even longer.

But I agree about inflationary pressures. It won’t be cheap credit but scarcity that leads to it. Not just of energy either. The shortage of lorry drivers and food chain workers hasn’t gone away and higher wagea there are going to squeeze us.

ydoethur

This is even more embarrassing than the last two tests.

Root may survive for want of alternatives, although bluntly for his own sake I hope he quits.

Bur with Thorpe, Collingwood, Jon Lewis and Richard Dawson all available as coaches surely Silverwood is toast?