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All I want for Christmas is new (platforms to bet on) – politicalbetting.com
All I want for Christmas is new (platforms to bet on) – politicalbetting.com
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of betting exchanges. Since they aren’t setting odds or taking risks from mis-pricings, they can easily offer a wider range of markets than their fixed odds brethren.
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They are talking about THREE MONTHS
"Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.
"Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday
Here's what I predicted back then:
“PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
We will go into a four week lockdown before NYE, and it will likely be extended
3 months is so horrific HMG will cry with relief because they have a cosy middle option, just a month of lockdown.
But that will get extended. As they do
I doubt it though - for better or worse (and it may well be worse), "Omi is mild, it's now basically a cold that kills twat anti-vaxxers" is the consensus.
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
And enjoy that cheese ...
(The I J Mellis mega hamper of assorted goodness. After missing out on Christmas last year I thought my family were due a treat).
Brace
"Bennett in closed conversations: Lockdown may be unavoidable
Israeli PM Bennett reportedly said in closed conversations that a lockdown may be inevitable due to uptick in COVID-19 cases.
Amid growing fears of a fifth wave of COVID-19, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has been saying in closed talks that "we will have to step on the brakes within two weeks.""
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/319191
https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1474392938142740488?t=EhBe4LbYO8I6GRV29V6HXA&s=19
That might work both ways though. Can he actually get anything past cabinet?
There will be a scramble to be seen agreeing with his potential successors...
It's too late. Omicron is too infectious. Lockdown won't work
@surplustakes
LSHTM say it is "too late" for restrictions to have much of an impact - we are already too close to the peak
https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1474395388828344320?s=20
https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1474398711161790496/photo/1
I note that the 3rd choice of 3 month lockdown is projected to lead to 44,500 deaths instead of 51,600 with no lockdown.
7000 mostly unvaccinated or a 3 month lockdown? We've not blinked at those kinds of numbers for flu...
How many QALYs vs how much cost?
On the other hand as that tweet below points out, even a three month lockdown doesn't do much, it saves a few thousand lives from Covid but at an incredible cost to the country in money, misery, madness, and multiple further deaths down the line (from untreated cancers etc)
We may have reached the terrible moment when we just have to say: Let it rip. Let the bug do its worst. I see the Israelis are also having that same debate
Negative LFTs for myself, Mrs Foxy and Fox jr2 who has arrived from plague City. So far so good.
The fly in the ointment? Or duty doctor is feeling rough and gone for a PCR...
It is quite possible we may go to Stage 3 from 4 Jan which is rule of 6, table service, masks and contact details. Not a lockdown. Maybe 4 weeks to start then extended for 4 more, ie to end Feb.
Also we do need to look at the fourth dose although there is a balance to be struck with allowing sufficient time for a tweak to deal specifically with Omicron.
That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1473575940932448256?t=qIxGOY4Q3Yvqkwa93_fLZg&s=19
Hospitalisations: 366 (previously 300)
Deaths: 29 (previously 24)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043866/20211224_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043758/20211223_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf
We really need to get out of this mindset and onto what we do next, be that another booster round, more vaccines etc. Waning immunity is going to be a big problem soon.
Prof Sir John Bell of God's Own University exuding a massive calm on r4 pm, meanwhile. Thinks the Israelis are a bunch of hysterical girlie boys. (paraphrasing very slightly).
Scientists come up with a range of scenarios
...
Media highlights the most extreme
...
Public panics
...
Government picks up on panicked public
...
Implements severe restrictions
...
Which only serves to increase panic more
Look: I'm no "let it rip" person. I think it would be wise to avoid large indoor social gatherings in the next few weeks, and to wear a mask on public transport.
That will not stop the wave, but it will probably mean that the peak isn't as high as it would otherwise be, and it means we get more boosters into arms.
But right now, it doesn't feel like we need to do any more than that.
Hooray for Professor Sir John, at least.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/christmas-eve-travel-chaos-as-airlines-cancel-more-than-2000-flights
PS Obviously not incompatible with your evident interpretation, but the latter is not the only explanation, in strict logic.
Such an approach would represent the permanence of such measures as a routine strategy in winter and would surely render a large section of the economy permanently unviable.
I don't think it'll immediately lead to more and big restrictions, and that's mainly because nobody really knows what effects the public's caution, or indeed the festivities soon will have. If I was the PM I might be thinking about ways to keep the partying on NYE somewhat reduced though - as has already been done in London (a bit).
Sometimes the older traditions are the best.
Proper made Christmas for me!
Happy Xmas Jeff.
The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.
Italy, meanwhile, reported 50,599 new cases - the second successive daily record.
But then whenever you get the vaccine mandate story raised you get somewhat more nuanced views often about how this is all the fault of the Govt for exacerbating pressure on the NHS by sacking a significant chunk of its workforce. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the public perception and media.
A quiet Christmas Eve for me and a chance to consider the important questions of the day (or really, the day after tomorrow).
What wins the King George at Kempton and is there a nice priced one lurking at one of the other meetings?
Light and refreshing. Nice.
On a more positive note, the South African figures continue to look encouraging, although it's still hard to assess how well they'll carry over to the UK:
https://twitter.com/sugan2503/status/1474456784341454857
The 'envy of the world' does massively more whining.
I tend to the "Johnson gives stern advice" scenario, with the ignored lockdown recommendations waved at backbenchers to show what a resolute chap he is. If people being on sick leave gets worse and worse, he then locks down on Jan 2, having shown that he wasn't doing it lightly. I think people would cut him some slack at that point.
Which fits with the pattern of doing everything a bit too late, but also, in fairness, the pattern of doing it in the end if necessary.
Yes, they have a deadline of the 1st of April 2022 unless they are medically exempt or work in an area that does not come into 'direct face to face contact with service users'.
We have also told our staff for them to meet the two dose deadline in April they will need to have their first dose done by the 3rd February so it will give them time to get their 2nd.
"The UK has the most successful vaccination program in the world and the only people at risk are those who refuse to get vaccinated. As we wont do anything about these anti-vaxxers we will instead impose the same restrictions we did a year ago on those who are triple vaccinated. These restrictions are only for the proles and will be ignored by me, my family and my mates."
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/dec/24/mail-online-ipso-upholds-complaint-over-town-being-no-go-area-for-white-people
Some years ago British Airways tried something similar - they had an advert which said that flying with BA one would never get jetlag. In response to complaints, they said that jetlag doesn't actually exist, so ...
That one failed too.
The silence of the midwinter night, a soft white flaky snow falling beyond the leaded windows, the whole family gathered around, waiting for the line to appear, and it's a Positive! - pubby Uncle Bob has ruined Christmas, so you beat him into a festive coma
Bless us all
I wonder if the same defence, when the "unreasonable" now make up a materially significant segment of the population would work quite as well now... If 40% (say) are unreasonable, and believe every word, it seems reasonable to me that a business or individual should have good cause to claim that the defamation has harmed their reputation and value. But maybe not...
Merry Christmas all by the way!
2 weeks without it would really help now. Ironically there isn't much of it anyway.
You, I notice, despite your intense, forlorn, slightly desperate desire to be seen as a smart old punter, have NOT done this
Come on, cough up, what you expect?
Admissions
Lockdowns
Deaths
Also the cabinet meeting, with presentation from scientific advisers, a few days ago did look very like buttering up his ministers to rubber stamp more Covid crap - and the rubber stamp was withheld.
I don't know, there might be some more something-must-be-done-ism in due course (e.g. stupid mask theatre when you go to the loo down the pub,) but the great hope is that most of the cabinet and half the Tory backbenches won't wear another lockdown, and neither (as Tony Blair recently suggested) will the country. The public may be nearing the limit of its toleration of the "Protect the NHS" mantra and the demand for more sacrifices. Especially given that a significant minority of both NHS staff and the general population won't make the oh-so-dreadful sacrifice of a tiny scratch on the arm every few months.
The Prime Minister should see to it that the refusers make all the sacrifices in future, and leave the rest of us alone.
Merry Xmas to you all
https://www.luriestrupinsky.com/blog/2021/03/red-bull-does-not-we-repeat-does-not-give-you-wings-tbt/
A friend of mine is in Germany for Xmas. He just texted me the situation there. You basically can't MOVE without a vaxport. No bars, no restaurants, even shops can get sniffy, you need an FFP2 mask minimum everywhere or people shout, if you aren't jabbed you have zero life. At one point he had to do a test in a cafe before they served him, and he is triple injected.
We are feeble as fuck in comparison.
I don't want that in the UK, but enough now. Time to crack down on the vaxless
It most likely is down to far more asymptomatic and minor cases being picked up by the high level of testing we do. The only largish countries that have done more testing per capita are Denmark, UAE, and Austria. Looking at similar sized countries the UK has done roughly 2x more tests per capita that France, 2.5x Italy, 4x Spain, and nearly 6x Germany.