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All I want for Christmas is new (platforms to bet on) – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageAll I want for Christmas is new (platforms to bet on) – politicalbetting.com

As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of betting exchanges. Since they aren’t setting odds or taking risks from mis-pricings, they can easily offer a wider range of markets than their fixed odds brethren.

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,270
    First.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 165
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    The prediction I made three weeks ago still looks quite accurate, and is roughly in the middle of the model produced in Warwick - linked below in the Guardian - which will decide our lockdown fate on Monday


    Here's what I predicted back then:

    “PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO

    The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle

    In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first


    Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”



    We will go into a four week lockdown before NYE, and it will likely be extended
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    Yep, that's what I reckon


    3 months is so horrific HMG will cry with relief because they have a cosy middle option, just a month of lockdown.

    But that will get extended. As they do
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,280
    The big news is

    image
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,018
    Not a problem. Just send all your money to @SeaShantyIrish2 and @TimT and ask them to place it for you. 😀
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,837
    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 682
    edited December 2021
    Well I just made the final payment for the venue for our Hogmanay get together. All I ask is suitable reparations are made should restrictions come in before the New Year.

    I doubt it though - for better or worse (and it may well be worse), "Omi is mild, it's now basically a cold that kills twat anti-vaxxers" is the consensus.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
    I hope they do but you would need nerves of steel to completely resist scientific advice like this Warwick stuff. Does Boris look like a man, right now, with *nerves of steel*?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,728
    Eabhal said:

    Well I just made the final payment for the venue for our Hogmanay get together. All I ask is suitable reparations are made should restrictions come in before the New Year.

    I doubt it though - for better or worse (and it may well be worse), "Omi is mild, it's now basically a cold that kills twat anti-vaxxers" is the consensus.

    BTW the Landmark Trust are decent about that, for future reference if anyone is considering booking with them and wants to know (I've had a very substantial refund from them earlier this year with no quibble at all, but do check the current situation).

    And enjoy that cheese ...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 682
    FPT Merry Christmas all - I saw my Grandma today for the first time in two years and I'm about to set about a cheese board. All is well.

    (The I J Mellis mega hamper of assorted goodness. After missing out on Christmas last year I thought my family were due a treat).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    Brace, everyone

    Brace

    "Bennett in closed conversations: Lockdown may be unavoidable

    Israeli PM Bennett reportedly said in closed conversations that a lockdown may be inevitable due to uptick in COVID-19 cases.


    Amid growing fears of a fifth wave of COVID-19, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has been saying in closed talks that "we will have to step on the brakes within two weeks.""

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/319191
  • SAGE modellers still very bearish as of 22 December: expect a hospitalisation peak as bad as Jan 2021 even if Omicron is 80% less severe AND gov reimposes Step 2 restrictions (no indoor socialising) in four days time https://t.co/BpWBVfiCSQ

    https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1474392938142740488?t=EhBe4LbYO8I6GRV29V6HXA&s=19
  • Leon said:

    Brace, everyone

    Brace

    "Bennett in closed conversations: Lockdown may be unavoidable

    Israeli PM Bennett reportedly said in closed conversations that a lockdown may be inevitable due to uptick in COVID-19 cases.


    Amid growing fears of a fifth wave of COVID-19, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has been saying in closed talks that "we will have to step on the brakes within two weeks.""

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/319191

    There's something unique about Israel which really doesn't apply to the UK when it comes to Covid.


  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,837
    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
    I hope they do but you would need nerves of steel to completely resist scientific advice like this Warwick stuff. Does Boris look like a man, right now, with *nerves of steel*?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
    Definitely weak and feeble.

    That might work both ways though. Can he actually get anything past cabinet?

    There will be a scramble to be seen agreeing with his potential successors...

  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949

    SAGE modellers still very bearish as of 22 December: expect a hospitalisation peak as bad as Jan 2021 even if Omicron is 80% less severe AND gov reimposes Step 2 restrictions (no indoor socialising) in four days time https://t.co/BpWBVfiCSQ

    https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1474392938142740488?t=EhBe4LbYO8I6GRV29V6HXA&s=19

    Ironically, this might save us from Lockdown.

    It's too late. Omicron is too infectious. Lockdown won't work


    @surplustakes
    LSHTM say it is "too late" for restrictions to have much of an impact - we are already too close to the peak


    https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1474395388828344320?s=20
  • Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    Yep, that's what I reckon


    3 months is so horrific HMG will cry with relief because they have a cosy middle option, just a month of lockdown.

    But that will get extended. As they do
    No chance there'll be even two weeks getting past the 99 Rebel Loons, Sunak and Truss. This nonsense is OVER. 👍
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,837
    edited December 2021
    These 3 choices...
    https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1474398711161790496/photo/1

    I note that the 3rd choice of 3 month lockdown is projected to lead to 44,500 deaths instead of 51,600 with no lockdown.

    7000 mostly unvaccinated or a 3 month lockdown? We've not blinked at those kinds of numbers for flu...

    How many QALYs vs how much cost?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    Yep, that's what I reckon


    3 months is so horrific HMG will cry with relief because they have a cosy middle option, just a month of lockdown.

    But that will get extended. As they do
    No chance there'll be even two weeks getting past the 99 Rebel Loons, Sunak and Truss. This nonsense is OVER. 👍
    I really want to believe you, but then I look at the Israeli government and I get collywobbles

    On the other hand as that tweet below points out, even a three month lockdown doesn't do much, it saves a few thousand lives from Covid but at an incredible cost to the country in money, misery, madness, and multiple further deaths down the line (from untreated cancers etc)

    We may have reached the terrible moment when we just have to say: Let it rip. Let the bug do its worst. I see the Israelis are also having that same debate
  • While we all consider going to hell in a hand basket, new star wars is out on the 29th on Disney+. Spin off from baby yoda, this is the way.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,798
    Modelling several scenarios, nothing more.

    Negative LFTs for myself, Mrs Foxy and Fox jr2 who has arrived from plague City. So far so good.

    The fly in the ointment? Or duty doctor is feeling rough and gone for a PCR...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
    I hope they do but you would need nerves of steel to completely resist scientific advice like this Warwick stuff. Does Boris look like a man, right now, with *nerves of steel*?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
    The paper referred to is dated Wednesday. There were a few developments re severity yesterday that may change things.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
    I hope they do but you would need nerves of steel to completely resist scientific advice like this Warwick stuff. Does Boris look like a man, right now, with *nerves of steel*?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
    The paper referred to is dated Wednesday. There were a few developments re severity yesterday that may change things.
    But they model for reduced severity: it is there in the predix
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
    I hope they do but you would need nerves of steel to completely resist scientific advice like this Warwick stuff. Does Boris look like a man, right now, with *nerves of steel*?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
    The paper referred to is dated Wednesday. There were a few developments re severity yesterday that may change things.
    But they model for reduced severity: it is there in the predix
    Yes but the political climate after this morning's headlines is very different to the more febrile atmosphere of Wednesday. The Guardian say that the cabinet will consider new restrictions on Monday. The Telegraph say they are now very unlikely. Pick your poison.
  • There are unlikely to be any new restrictions in England before New Year. Although Boris might say 'keep it small and sensible for New Year's Eve' or similar.

    It is quite possible we may go to Stage 3 from 4 Jan which is rule of 6, table service, masks and contact details. Not a lockdown. Maybe 4 weeks to start then extended for 4 more, ie to end Feb.

    Also we do need to look at the fourth dose although there is a balance to be struck with allowing sufficient time for a tweak to deal specifically with Omicron.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,864
    My condolences to the "London has already peaked" thought line.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,612
    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
    I hope they do but you would need nerves of steel to completely resist scientific advice like this Warwick stuff. Does Boris look like a man, right now, with *nerves of steel*?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
    The paper referred to is dated Wednesday. There were a few developments re severity yesterday that may change things.
    But they model for reduced severity: it is there in the predix
    Has the text of the paper been released?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    The even more dismal Starmer might ride to his rescue.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    The government could always pick 'none of the above'...
    I hope they do but you would need nerves of steel to completely resist scientific advice like this Warwick stuff. Does Boris look like a man, right now, with *nerves of steel*?

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear
    The paper referred to is dated Wednesday. There were a few developments re severity yesterday that may change things.
    But they model for reduced severity: it is there in the predix
    Has the text of the paper been released?
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043854/S1463_Warwick_Omicron_Modelling.pdf
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,074
    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954

    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    Because Leon reported on a Guardian report of a Cabinet meeting that will reportedly discuss a paper that modelled the effects of returning to Step 2.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,798
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    Though this twitter thread shows that the models included much more modest waves. It was the papers that went for the worst case:

    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1473575940932448256?t=qIxGOY4Q3Yvqkwa93_fLZg&s=19
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,612
    Fishing said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    The even more dismal Starmer might ride to his rescue.
    On the Parliamentary vote, yes, but Starmer has neither the interest nor the ability to save him from being fatally undermined by losing the support of 30-40% of his own MPs in a confidence ballot.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,612
    edited December 2021

    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    It's the dismal scientists inventing reasons why the British Omicron outbreak will play out completely differently to the South African one.
  • I don't think a lockdown now will serve much good but I think based on the Government's track record, we'll spend the next several months pretending the virus has gone away.

    We really need to get out of this mindset and onto what we do next, be that another booster round, more vaccines etc. Waning immunity is going to be a big problem soon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,716
    Leon said:

    The prediction I made three weeks ago still looks quite accurate, and is roughly in the middle of the model produced in Warwick - linked below in the Guardian - which will decide our lockdown fate on Monday


    Here's what I predicted back then:

    “PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO

    The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle

    In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first


    Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”



    We will go into a four week lockdown before NYE, and it will likely be extended

    I don't think the government will be paying much attention to this.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,612
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    Though this twitter thread shows that the models included much more modest waves. It was the papers that went for the worst case:

    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1473575940932448256?t=qIxGOY4Q3Yvqkwa93_fLZg&s=19
    Up to a point. Most of the July models were too pessimistic; the most extreme predictions bore no resemblance to reality at all. Besides which, whether the most drastic numbers have been amplified by the media itself, or the media reporting hyperventilating iSAGE types, the effect is nonetheless to make the models look suspect when inconvenient facts (e.g. no mass carnage in August, Omicron less virulent than we thought) begin to get in the way.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,848
    edited December 2021
    pigeon said:

    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    It's the dismal scientists inventing reasons why the British Omicron outbreak will play out completely differently to the South African one.
    Or, the scientists are acknowledged experts so incredibly expert at their jobs that they know the meaning of the words "confounding variable." One or the other.

    Prof Sir John Bell of God's Own University exuding a massive calm on r4 pm, meanwhile. Thinks the Israelis are a bunch of hysterical girlie boys. (paraphrasing very slightly).
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,612
    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    It's the dismal scientists inventing reasons why the British Omicron outbreak will play out completely differently to the South African one.
    Or, the scientists are acknowledged experts so incredibly expert at their jobs that they know the meaning of the words "confounding variable." One or the other.

    Prof Sir John Bell of God's Own University exuding a massive calm on r4 pm, meanwhile. Thinks the Israelis are a bunch of hysterical girlie boys. (paraphrasing very slightly).
    If we keep on assuming that there's going to be a massacre only slightly less horrendous than a nuclear holocaust every time this virus mutates then we might as well just shoot ourselves now and get it over with.

    Hooray for Professor Sir John, at least.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,837
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    pigeon said:

    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    It's the dismal scientists inventing reasons why the British Omicron outbreak will play out completely differently to the South African one.
    Or, the scientists are acknowledged experts so incredibly expert at their jobs that they know the meaning of the words "confounding variable." One or the other.

    Prof Sir John Bell of God's Own University exuding a massive calm on r4 pm, meanwhile. Thinks the Israelis are a bunch of hysterical girlie boys. (paraphrasing very slightly).
    I thought the offhand revelation that he had Omicron was a particular highlight...
  • If China has COVID under control, why are two Chinese airlines leading the global flight cancellation surge?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/christmas-eve-travel-chaos-as-airlines-cancel-more-than-2000-flights
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,632
    No Dashboard update on the 25th or 26th. The number on Tuesday is going to be quite something!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,728
    edited December 2021

    If China has COVID under control, why are two Chinese airlines leading the global flight cancellation surge?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/christmas-eve-travel-chaos-as-airlines-cancel-more-than-2000-flights

    Because the pilots and cabin crews catch the bug abroad? Seriously.

    PS Obviously not incompatible with your evident interpretation, but the latter is not the only explanation, in strict logic.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    Yep, that's what I reckon


    3 months is so horrific HMG will cry with relief because they have a cosy middle option, just a month of lockdown.

    But that will get extended. As they do
    No chance there'll be even two weeks getting past the 99 Rebel Loons, Sunak and Truss. This nonsense is OVER. 👍
    I really want to believe you, but then I look at the Israeli government and I get collywobbles

    On the other hand as that tweet below points out, even a three month lockdown doesn't do much, it saves a few thousand lives from Covid but at an incredible cost to the country in money, misery, madness, and multiple further deaths down the line (from untreated cancers etc)

    We may have reached the terrible moment when we just have to say: Let it rip. Let the bug do its worst. I see the Israelis are also having that same debate
    You're not looking at the Israeli Government though. You're looking at an unattirbuted comment in Arutz Sheva.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    The line now seems to be that omicron severity isn’t particularly relevant because too many people will be isolating with positive tests and/or mild symptoms to allow society to function. So (variant of) lockdown. There are of course alternatives to this...

    Such an approach would represent the permanence of such measures as a routine strategy in winter and would surely render a large section of the economy permanently unviable.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858

    Everyone has their own Christmas traditions. In our house we unwrap the lateral flow tests straight after breakfast.

    I unwrapped mine early. Happy to say I'm not off to the potting shed for a week.
  • My name is Jeff
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    Yep, that's what I reckon


    3 months is so horrific HMG will cry with relief because they have a cosy middle option, just a month of lockdown.

    But that will get extended. As they do
    No chance there'll be even two weeks getting past the 99 Rebel Loons, Sunak and Truss. This nonsense is OVER. 👍
    I really want to believe you, but then I look at the Israeli government and I get collywobbles

    On the other hand as that tweet below points out, even a three month lockdown doesn't do much, it saves a few thousand lives from Covid but at an incredible cost to the country in money, misery, madness, and multiple further deaths down the line (from untreated cancers etc)

    We may have reached the terrible moment when we just have to say: Let it rip. Let the bug do its worst. I see the Israelis are also having that same debate
    You're not looking at the Israeli Government though. You're looking at an unattirbuted comment in Arutz Sheva.
    Looking at that report. Lots of holes which they make sure to point out, and nobody's really doing 'science' with such data. Also there's an inevitable theme with anything to do with geometric growth that it ramps up fast. However I do think that it's quite a good and sobering report.

    I don't think it'll immediately lead to more and big restrictions, and that's mainly because nobody really knows what effects the public's caution, or indeed the festivities soon will have. If I was the PM I might be thinking about ways to keep the partying on NYE somewhat reduced though - as has already been done in London (a bit).



  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,028

    Everyone has their own Christmas traditions. In our house we unwrap the lateral flow tests straight after breakfast.

    We will be doing the same before I bring my mother in law over, just in case.
    Sometimes the older traditions are the best.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,845

    My name is Jeff

    Merry Christmas Jeff
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241
    9:30. I Can See Your Voice. The pinnacle of TV entertainment.
    Proper made Christmas for me!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,858

    My name is Jeff

    Oh no it isn't! (Panto season after all).

    Happy Xmas Jeff.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,028
    dixiedean said:

    9:30. I Can See Your Voice. The pinnacle of TV entertainment.
    Proper made Christmas for me!

    Miracle on 34th Street for me. In about 15 minutes. With a glass of champagne. And lobster. Nice.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,845
    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    Italy, meanwhile, reported 50,599 new cases - the second successive daily record.
  • TresTres Posts: 679
    The Princess Bride was my Xmas movie of choice earlier.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,716
    edited December 2021

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    Italy, meanwhile, reported 50,599 new cases - the second successive daily record.

    Do we know what percentage of cases are Omicron cases in those places?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,845
    Tres said:

    The Princess Bride was my Xmas movie of choice earlier.

    We watched an episode of Brambly Hedge.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,845
    Andy_JS said:

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    Italy, meanwhile, reported 50,599 new cases - the second successive daily record.

    Do we know what percentage of cases are Omicron cases in those places?
    No mention in the Sky report I copied and pasted from.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    One interesting political dynamic upcoming is the vaccine mandate in the NHS. At the moment you get a lot of anecdotal stories in the press about the irresponsible unvaccinated clogging up hospitals and putting NHS staff on the frontline under intolerable stress.

    But then whenever you get the vaccine mandate story raised you get somewhat more nuanced views often about how this is all the fault of the Govt for exacerbating pressure on the NHS by sacking a significant chunk of its workforce. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the public perception and media.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,643
    Evening all :)

    A quiet Christmas Eve for me and a chance to consider the important questions of the day (or really, the day after tomorrow).

    What wins the King George at Kempton and is there a nice priced one lurking at one of the other meetings?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 578

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    That seems a really high number in hospital v cases relative to us - what would be the explanation?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,113
    pigeon said:

    Fishing said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    The even more dismal Starmer might ride to his rescue.
    On the Parliamentary vote, yes, but Starmer has neither the interest nor the ability to save him from being fatally undermined by losing the support of 30-40% of his own MPs in a confidence ballot.
    I hope you're right, but that didn't stop him going for the last lot of restrictions.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,530
    NeilVW said:

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    That seems a really high number in hospital v cases relative to us - what would be the explanation?
    Been discussed a few times on pb. Possibilities include not testing as much as the U.K., hence more cases than are being detected; better health provision in secondary care, so milder Covid patients are in hospital than in the stretched U.K.; and your guess is as good as mine...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    Andy_JS said:

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    Italy, meanwhile, reported 50,599 new cases - the second successive daily record.

    Do we know what percentage of cases are Omicron cases in those places?
    No mention in the Sky report I copied and pasted from.
    I feel there’s a strong case that most of Europe is still going through significant Delta waves. Where death numbers are concerned anyway.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,845
    I've opened a bottle of Exeter Brewery Avocet Organic Ale.

    Light and refreshing. Nice.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,148
    edited December 2021
    alex_ said:

    One interesting political dynamic upcoming is the vaccine mandate in the NHS. At the moment you get a lot of anecdotal stories in the press about the irresponsible unvaccinated clogging up hospitals and putting NHS staff on the frontline under intolerable stress.

    But then whenever you get the vaccine mandate story raised you get somewhat more nuanced views often about how this is all the fault of the Govt for exacerbating pressure on the NHS by sacking a significant chunk of its workforce. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the public perception and media.

    Out of interest, with boosters and all that how does the NHS vaccine mandate actually manifest itself in regulation? i.e. if you are totally unvaccinated "today", do they basically mandate a date by which you need to have had three jabs? Or is it just two?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,817
    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    Italy, meanwhile, reported 50,599 new cases - the second successive daily record.

    Do we know what percentage of cases are Omicron cases in those places?
    No mention in the Sky report I copied and pasted from.
    I feel there’s a strong case that most of Europe is still going through significant Delta waves. Where death numbers are concerned anyway.
    Its still a lot of delta here. I had delta 3 weeks ago (outbreak at work) and my wife just tested positive for it today (also delta according to test results) scrapping our plans to return to the UK over Xmas. She got her booster jab 10 days ago and still managed to catch it!
  • A somewhat mixed picture in the UK, but not I think sufficient to impose severe restrictions, especially given the Sage modelling that even a full 3-month lockdown doesn't make that big a difference in terms of reduced deaths. It's unpleasant to have to think in those terms ("only 15,000 lives saved"), but @Leon is right that the cost of saving those lives is probably going to be too great, especially since many of them are volunteering for death by not getting jabbed.

    On a more positive note, the South African figures continue to look encouraging, although it's still hard to assess how well they'll carry over to the UK:

    https://twitter.com/sugan2503/status/1474456784341454857
  • NeilVW said:

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    That seems a really high number in hospital v cases relative to us - what would be the explanation?
    The UK does massively more testing.

    The 'envy of the world' does massively more whining.
  • Anyway, time for some more Champagne and then a nice Viña Bosconia with dinner.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,096

    alex_ said:

    One interesting political dynamic upcoming is the vaccine mandate in the NHS. At the moment you get a lot of anecdotal stories in the press about the irresponsible unvaccinated clogging up hospitals and putting NHS staff on the frontline under intolerable stress.

    But then whenever you get the vaccine mandate story raised you get somewhat more nuanced views often about how this is all the fault of the Govt for exacerbating pressure on the NHS by sacking a significant chunk of its workforce. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the public perception and media.

    Out of interest, with boosters and all that how does the NHS vaccine mandate actually manifest itself in regulation? i.e. if you are totally unvaccinated "today", do they basically mandate a date by which you need to have had three jabs? Or is it just two?
    It's just the two jabs for now that are required.

    Yes, they have a deadline of the 1st of April 2022 unless they are medically exempt or work in an area that does not come into 'direct face to face contact with service users'.

    We have also told our staff for them to meet the two dose deadline in April they will need to have their first dose done by the 3rd February so it will give them time to get their 2nd.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,246
    Leon said:

    The prediction I made three weeks ago still looks quite accurate, and is roughly in the middle of the model produced in Warwick - linked below in the Guardian - which will decide our lockdown fate on Monday


    Here's what I predicted back then:

    “PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO

    The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle

    In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first


    Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”



    We will go into a four week lockdown before NYE, and it will likely be extended

    Since when you’ve put forward so many other scenarios, from the end of life on Earth through to the end of the pandemic is in sight, that picking out any one of your past offerings is utterly pointless.
  • I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    Partly I think the difference is that PB is almost as bipolar as Leon - we are always either whooping or despairing, and "Hmm, what comes next?" is usually the right line to take with Covid. The issue is that so many services are struggling with massive sick leave, so although fears of a big death toll have receded, there are concerns that the NHS, care homes and perhaps other vital services could be seriously impaired.

    I tend to the "Johnson gives stern advice" scenario, with the ignored lockdown recommendations waved at backbenchers to show what a resolute chap he is. If people being on sick leave gets worse and worse, he then locks down on Jan 2, having shown that he wasn't doing it lightly. I think people would cut him some slack at that point.

    Which fits with the pattern of doing everything a bit too late, but also, in fairness, the pattern of doing it in the end if necessary.
    I look forward to the speech:

    "The UK has the most successful vaccination program in the world and the only people at risk are those who refuse to get vaccinated. As we wont do anything about these anti-vaxxers we will instead impose the same restrictions we did a year ago on those who are triple vaccinated. These restrictions are only for the proles and will be ignored by me, my family and my mates."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,246
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    Though this twitter thread shows that the models included much more modest waves. It was the papers that went for the worst case:

    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1473575940932448256?t=qIxGOY4Q3Yvqkwa93_fLZg&s=19
    Up to a point. Most of the July models were too pessimistic; the most extreme predictions bore no resemblance to reality at all. Besides which, whether the most drastic numbers have been amplified by the media itself, or the media reporting hyperventilating iSAGE types, the effect is nonetheless to make the models look suspect when inconvenient facts (e.g. no mass carnage in August, Omicron less virulent than we thought) begin to get in the way.
    There's this weird amplification thing that happens:

    Scientists come up with a range of scenarios
    ...
    Media highlights the most extreme
    ...
    Public panics
    ...
    Government picks up on panicked public
    ...
    Implements severe restrictions
    ...
    Which only serves to increase panic more

    Look: I'm no "let it rip" person. I think it would be wise to avoid large indoor social gatherings in the next few weeks, and to wear a mask on public transport.

    That will not stop the wave, but it will probably mean that the peak isn't as high as it would otherwise be, and it means we get more boosters into arms.

    But right now, it doesn't feel like we need to do any more than that.
    I'm sick of the panics and the focus on the most extreme scenarios.
    It’s because Leon isn’t the only one…
  • IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    The prediction I made three weeks ago still looks quite accurate, and is roughly in the middle of the model produced in Warwick - linked below in the Guardian - which will decide our lockdown fate on Monday


    Here's what I predicted back then:

    “PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO

    The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle

    In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first


    Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”



    We will go into a four week lockdown before NYE, and it will likely be extended

    Since when you’ve put forward so many other scenarios, from the end of life on Earth through to the end of the pandemic is in sight, that picking out any one of your past offerings is utterly pointless.
    Particularly as the prediction given is already shown to be complete bollox.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,148
    jonny83 said:

    alex_ said:

    One interesting political dynamic upcoming is the vaccine mandate in the NHS. At the moment you get a lot of anecdotal stories in the press about the irresponsible unvaccinated clogging up hospitals and putting NHS staff on the frontline under intolerable stress.

    But then whenever you get the vaccine mandate story raised you get somewhat more nuanced views often about how this is all the fault of the Govt for exacerbating pressure on the NHS by sacking a significant chunk of its workforce. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the public perception and media.

    Out of interest, with boosters and all that how does the NHS vaccine mandate actually manifest itself in regulation? i.e. if you are totally unvaccinated "today", do they basically mandate a date by which you need to have had three jabs? Or is it just two?
    It's just the two jabs for now that are required.

    Yes, they have a deadline of the 1st of April 2022 unless they are medically exempt or work in an area that does not come into 'direct face to face contact with service users'.

    We have also told our staff for them to meet the two dose deadline in April they will need to have their first dose done by the 3rd February so it will give them time to get their 2nd.
    Ah, thanks for explaining.
  • I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    Partly I think the difference is that PB is almost as bipolar as Leon - we are always either whooping or despairing, and "Hmm, what comes next?" is usually the right line to take with Covid. The issue is that so many services are struggling with massive sick leave, so although fears of a big death toll have receded, there are concerns that the NHS, care homes and perhaps other vital services could be seriously impaired.

    I tend to the "Johnson gives stern advice" scenario, with the ignored lockdown recommendations waved at backbenchers to show what a resolute chap he is. If people being on sick leave gets worse and worse, he then locks down on Jan 2, having shown that he wasn't doing it lightly. I think people would cut him some slack at that point.

    Which fits with the pattern of doing everything a bit too late, but also, in fairness, the pattern of doing it in the end if necessary.
    Telling the country - which by then will have over 35m triple vaccinated - that they're going to have more restrictions not because they're at risk but because some asymptomatic people might be on sick leave is not going to be accepted.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,891
    Amusing failed defence by the Mail Online - "No reader believes what we say, so it's OK to say it"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/dec/24/mail-online-ipso-upholds-complaint-over-town-being-no-go-area-for-white-people

    Some years ago British Airways tried something similar - they had an advert which said that flying with BA one would never get jetlag. In response to complaints, they said that jetlag doesn't actually exist, so ...

    That one failed too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    Omnium said:

    Everyone has their own Christmas traditions. In our house we unwrap the lateral flow tests straight after breakfast.

    I unwrapped mine early. Happy to say I'm not off to the potting shed for a week.
    Just did my Yuletide Antigen. I love this tradition

    The silence of the midwinter night, a soft white flaky snow falling beyond the leaded windows, the whole family gathered around, waiting for the line to appear, and it's a Positive! - pubby Uncle Bob has ruined Christmas, so you beat him into a festive coma

    Bless us all
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    Amusing failed defence by the Mail Online - "No reader believes what we say, so it's OK to say it"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/dec/24/mail-online-ipso-upholds-complaint-over-town-being-no-go-area-for-white-people

    Some years ago British Airways tried something similar - they had an advert which said that flying with BA one would never get jetlag. In response to complaints, they said that jetlag doesn't actually exist, so ...

    That one failed too.

    Succeeded for Fox News in America a few years ago though. Fought off a defamation claim (things work very differently over there) on the grounds that no reasonable person would expect to believe what had been said (by Tucker Carlsen) and everyone knew it was just "entertainment".

    I wonder if the same defence, when the "unreasonable" now make up a materially significant segment of the population would work quite as well now... If 40% (say) are unreasonable, and believe every word, it seems reasonable to me that a business or individual should have good cause to claim that the defamation has harmed their reputation and value. But maybe not...
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 220

    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    Partly I think the difference is that PB is almost as bipolar as Leon - we are always either whooping or despairing, and "Hmm, what comes next?" is usually the right line to take with Covid. The issue is that so many services are struggling with massive sick leave, so although fears of a big death toll have receded, there are concerns that the NHS, care homes and perhaps other vital services could be seriously impaired.

    I tend to the "Johnson gives stern advice" scenario, with the ignored lockdown recommendations waved at backbenchers to show what a resolute chap he is. If people being on sick leave gets worse and worse, he then locks down on Jan 2, having shown that he wasn't doing it lightly. I think people would cut him some slack at that point.

    Which fits with the pattern of doing everything a bit too late, but also, in fairness, the pattern of doing it in the end if necessary.
    Telling the country - which by then will have over 35m triple vaccinated - that they're going to have more restrictions not because they're at risk but because some asymptomatic people might be on sick leave is not going to be accepted.
    Feels like a lot of goalpost shifting going on: "Well, turns out the NHS isn't going to get overloaded after all, but we have plenty of other good reasons to curtail your freedoms".

    Merry Christmas all by the way!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241
    It's a real pity football eschewed the Winter break.
    2 weeks without it would really help now. Ironically there isn't much of it anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    edited December 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    The prediction I made three weeks ago still looks quite accurate, and is roughly in the middle of the model produced in Warwick - linked below in the Guardian - which will decide our lockdown fate on Monday


    Here's what I predicted back then:

    “PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO

    The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle

    In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first


    Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”



    We will go into a four week lockdown before NYE, and it will likely be extended

    Since when you’ve put forward so many other scenarios, from the end of life on Earth through to the end of the pandemic is in sight, that picking out any one of your past offerings is utterly pointless.
    But I have actually nailed myself to some hard predictions - which I did three weeks ago - and these guesstimates will be derided or admired by posterity.

    You, I notice, despite your intense, forlorn, slightly desperate desire to be seen as a smart old punter, have NOT done this

    Come on, cough up, what you expect?

    Admissions
    Lockdowns
    Deaths
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    I've not been monitoring for the last couple of days. Can someone explain why we're suddenly talking about lockdown again.

    Partly I think the difference is that PB is almost as bipolar as Leon - we are always either whooping or despairing, and "Hmm, what comes next?" is usually the right line to take with Covid. The issue is that so many services are struggling with massive sick leave, so although fears of a big death toll have receded, there are concerns that the NHS, care homes and perhaps other vital services could be seriously impaired.

    I tend to the "Johnson gives stern advice" scenario, with the ignored lockdown recommendations waved at backbenchers to show what a resolute chap he is. If people being on sick leave gets worse and worse, he then locks down on Jan 2, having shown that he wasn't doing it lightly. I think people would cut him some slack at that point.

    Which fits with the pattern of doing everything a bit too late, but also, in fairness, the pattern of doing it in the end if necessary.
    Telling the country - which by then will have over 35m triple vaccinated - that they're going to have more restrictions not because they're at risk but because some asymptomatic people might be on sick leave is not going to be accepted.
    When the Government has the power to legally mandate businesses to abide by whatever imposition is placed on them, does that matter? This has always been the major weakness in the "people will not comply" argument. People may not comply, and break whatever 'rules' they can but you can't break a rule about not entering a pub if the pub isn't open. Meanwhile the polling just continues to show the popularity of restrictions on other people.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,612
    Fishing said:

    pigeon said:

    Fishing said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    The even more dismal Starmer might ride to his rescue.
    On the Parliamentary vote, yes, but Starmer has neither the interest nor the ability to save him from being fatally undermined by losing the support of 30-40% of his own MPs in a confidence ballot.
    I hope you're right, but that didn't stop him going for the last lot of restrictions.
    But the size of the rebellion put him on notice.

    Also the cabinet meeting, with presentation from scientific advisers, a few days ago did look very like buttering up his ministers to rubber stamp more Covid crap - and the rubber stamp was withheld.

    I don't know, there might be some more something-must-be-done-ism in due course (e.g. stupid mask theatre when you go to the loo down the pub,) but the great hope is that most of the cabinet and half the Tory backbenches won't wear another lockdown, and neither (as Tony Blair recently suggested) will the country. The public may be nearing the limit of its toleration of the "Protect the NHS" mantra and the demand for more sacrifices. Especially given that a significant minority of both NHS staff and the general population won't make the oh-so-dreadful sacrifice of a tiny scratch on the arm every few months.

    The Prime Minister should see to it that the refusers make all the sacrifices in future, and leave the rest of us alone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,241

    Amusing failed defence by the Mail Online - "No reader believes what we say, so it's OK to say it"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/dec/24/mail-online-ipso-upholds-complaint-over-town-being-no-go-area-for-white-people

    Some years ago British Airways tried something similar - they had an advert which said that flying with BA one would never get jetlag. In response to complaints, they said that jetlag doesn't actually exist, so ...

    That one failed too.

    However. Red Bull doesn't give you wings.

    https://www.luriestrupinsky.com/blog/2021/03/red-bull-does-not-we-repeat-does-not-give-you-wings-tbt/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,949
    pigeon said:

    Fishing said:

    pigeon said:

    Fishing said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Fortunately the scientists have been substantially discredited by the fallout from the July modelling fiasco and the failure of Omicron to closely resemble the Black Death; the Prime Minister is very weak and his cabinet is full of lockdown sceptics; and there are a vast number of pissed off rebels on the Tory backbenches.

    That's not to say I'm sure we won't have another of these hideous lockdowns, but Johnson will find it very difficult to get through without destroying his career. And what does he care about most? Himself.
    The even more dismal Starmer might ride to his rescue.
    On the Parliamentary vote, yes, but Starmer has neither the interest nor the ability to save him from being fatally undermined by losing the support of 30-40% of his own MPs in a confidence ballot.
    I hope you're right, but that didn't stop him going for the last lot of restrictions.
    But the size of the rebellion put him on notice.

    Also the cabinet meeting, with presentation from scientific advisers, a few days ago did look very like buttering up his ministers to rubber stamp more Covid crap - and the rubber stamp was withheld.

    I don't know, there might be some more something-must-be-done-ism in due course (e.g. stupid mask theatre when you go to the loo down the pub,) but the great hope is that most of the cabinet and half the Tory backbenches won't wear another lockdown, and neither (as Tony Blair recently suggested) will the country. The public may be nearing the limit of its toleration of the "Protect the NHS" mantra and the demand for more sacrifices. Especially given that a significant minority of both NHS staff and the general population won't make the oh-so-dreadful sacrifice of a tiny scratch on the arm every few months.

    The Prime Minister should see to it that the refusers make all the sacrifices in future, and leave the rest of us alone.
    Why in the name of c*nting heaven have we not been harder on the refuseniks? are we really that scared of the racism thing, or the libertarian lobby? REALLY?

    A friend of mine is in Germany for Xmas. He just texted me the situation there. You basically can't MOVE without a vaxport. No bars, no restaurants, even shops can get sniffy, you need an FFP2 mask minimum everywhere or people shout, if you aren't jabbed you have zero life. At one point he had to do a test in a cafe before they served him, and he is triple injected.

    We are feeble as fuck in comparison.

    I don't want that in the UK, but enough now. Time to crack down on the vaxless
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the

    Looks like a classic "provide three options to steer the decision-maker towards choosing the middle one" to me... there's no way they expect the government to ever pick the three-month option.
    Yep, that's what I reckon


    3 months is so horrific HMG will cry with relief because they have a cosy middle option, just a month of lockdown.

    But that will get extended. As they do
    No chance there'll be even two weeks getting past the 99 Rebel Loons, Sunak and Truss. This nonsense is OVER. 👍
    I really want to believe you, but then I look at the Israeli government and I get collywobbles

    On the other hand as that tweet below points out, even a three month lockdown doesn't do much, it saves a few thousand lives from Covid but at an incredible cost to the country in money, misery, madness, and multiple further deaths down the line (from untreated cancers etc)

    We may have reached the terrible moment when we just have to say: Let it rip. Let the bug do its worst. I see the Israelis are also having that same debate
    We're not letting the bug do its worst, because our high vaccination rates reduce the maximum worst-case scenario impact it could have by a factor of about 50, once you factor in the effect of overwhelmed hospitals in the pre-vaccination worst-case scenario. We need leadership to reassure people.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    Italy, meanwhile, reported 50,599 new cases - the second successive daily record.

    Do we know what percentage of cases are Omicron cases in those places?
    No mention in the Sky report I copied and pasted from.
    I feel there’s a strong case that most of Europe is still going through significant Delta waves. Where death numbers are concerned anyway.
    Its still a lot of delta here. I had delta 3 weeks ago (outbreak at work) and my wife just tested positive for it today (also delta according to test results) scrapping our plans to return to the UK over Xmas. She got her booster jab 10 days ago and still managed to catch it!
    We don't hear quite so much about "reckless UK (c18k reported deaths since opening up in July) being accepting of c1k deaths a week when cautious Germany (for example - although others have, thus far, done a bit better) has had the same number since end of August (and counting still with close to regular 3k a week
  • glwglw Posts: 7,959

    NeilVW said:

    France reported 94,124 daily COVID infections on Friday - a new daily record.

    The number of those being treated in hospital reached almost 16,200 - a seven-month high.

    That seems a really high number in hospital v cases relative to us - what would be the explanation?
    The UK does massively more testing.

    The 'envy of the world' does massively more whining.
    Just eyeballing worldometer the UK really does have a very large ratio of active cases to serious cases. Only a few countries like Norway, Switzerland, and Denmark are close.

    It most likely is down to far more asymptomatic and minor cases being picked up by the high level of testing we do. The only largish countries that have done more testing per capita are Denmark, UAE, and Austria. Looking at similar sized countries the UK has done roughly 2x more tests per capita that France, 2.5x Italy, 4x Spain, and nearly 6x Germany.
This discussion has been closed.