politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to tak
Back in 2005 Douglas Carswell was one of a select group of Tories who won seats from LAB. He took Harwich. Then, five years later in the new seat of Clacton, he held on thanks to a swing from LAB of 9.7%, The national swing was 5% which is a good indication of how well he did.
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What a gift for Labour.0
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Jim Pickard@PickardJE·4 mins
Ukip: "Roger Lord has never been the by-election candidate for Clacton." (He was only ever the general election candidate.)
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·5 mins
Ukip's handling of Roger Lord is a becoming a cross between something out of Carry On script and something from Orwell.
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·8 mins
Roger Lord, ex Ukip Clacton candidate: "I had a call from the party secretary threatening to throw me out of the party if I don't shut up."0 -
Cameron orders immediate RAF airdrops of thousands of leaflets to beleaguered Tory communities along the Essex Coast.
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It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
They just don't get it.0 -
Negative campaigning of the worst kind!Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
They just don't get it.0 -
BREAKING NEWS:Tracey Cheetham quits role as South Yorkshire deputy police commissioner after Rotherham abuse report .
BBC ticker - and BBC Radio Sheffield @BBCSheffield 5m
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To answer the thread:
Yes Carswell has, he keeps a separate record of his voters and supporters from the local tories.
So he has full access to all the information that someone needs to get elected.0 -
Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."0 -
Yep.Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
They just don't get it.
Anyone else feel like giving Richard Nabavi a reassuring hug? Bless his little cotton socks.0 -
For people who've switched from the Conservatives to UKIP, it simply rubs home to them why they were right to switch.Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
They just don't get it.
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UKIP IS a prop for Labour (as well as FPTP, the boundaries and 2010 Lib-Dems)Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
Nothing wrong with pointing out the blatantly obvious.
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Yawn.GIN1138 said:
UKIP IS a prop for Labour (as well as FPTP, the boundaries and 2010 Lib-Dems)Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
Nothing wrong with pointing out the blatantly obvious.
Its like talking to Louise Mensch.0 -
The problem within the Cons has long been the so called "rebels". They are a ridiculous, anti-democratic, solipsistic bunch of fools (to be kind).Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
They just don't get it.
They are failing to realise that the totality of the Conservative effort is a broad church but they previously (and Carswell today) have singled out one particular issue because they have a bee in their bonnet about it. They don't rebel on so many other things but Europe (on which of course the entire country is divided) when their own party has one of the most coherent policies on it.
Of course it is a leap of faith that any negotiations will be meaningful but if they aren't or if voters perceive they aren't then they can just vote "Out" in 2017.
It really beggars belief.0 -
Carswell "It's above all the failure to deliver on the promise of political reform that has driven me to be here today."
Which is why I am delighted my candidacy in the upcoming by-election has been stitched up in the back room by the party ruling elite...
@ToryMemo: Apparently UKIP rules allow them to replace a candidate chosen by local members in favour of another imposed by the party... Democratic.
@PickardJE: Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."0 -
You didn't read the ConHome article then?Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
They just don't get it.0 -
Peter Allen taking the piss on the 2 UKIP candidates on R5...0
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Obviously the deputy couldn't work any more with the PCC.dr_spyn said:BREAKING NEWS:Tracey Cheetham quits role as South Yorkshire deputy police commissioner after Rotherham abuse report .
BBC ticker - and BBC Radio Sheffield @BBCSheffield 5m
Will everyone in South Yorkshire Police resign in protest too?0 -
Too late. His comments have now made the Radio News.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."0 -
Channel 4 News @Channel4News 2m
Education Sec Nicky Morgan orders Ofsted inspection of Rotherham child protection and looked-after children services. #c4news
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Please keep insulting your own party members. It just encourages more of them to defect.TOPPING said:
The problem within the Cons has long been the so called "rebels". They are a ridiculous, anti-democratic, solipsistic bunch of fools (to be kind).Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
They just don't get it.
They are failing to realise that the totality of the Conservative effort is a broad church but they previously (and Carswell today) have singled out one particular issue because they have a bee in their bonnet about it. They don't rebel on so many other things but Europe (on which of course the entire country is divided) when their own party has one of the most coherent policies on it.
Of course it is a leap of faith that any negotiations will be meaningful but if they aren't or if voters perceive they aren't then they can just vote "Out" in 2017.
It really beggars belief.
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Good evening, everyone.
The Lord situation seems rather peculiar. One would've thought the problem might have been anticipated.
It'd be ironic if the Conservatives (or Labour) won by UKIP managing to field two candidates - UKIP Official and UKIP Classic.0 -
Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.0
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I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.0 -
As a Barnsley Councillor, first elected in 2011 what could she have had to do with the failings in Rotheram, unlike, the former Head of Children's services, say?dr_spyn said:BREAKING NEWS:Tracey Cheetham quits role as South Yorkshire deputy police commissioner after Rotherham abuse report .
BBC ticker - and BBC Radio Sheffield @BBCSheffield 5m
http://www.southyorkshire-pcc.gov.uk/About/About-Your-Deputy.aspx
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True, but it is very funny.Sean_F said:Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.
Remind me, what was all that stuff about UKIP not being like other parties? Also wasn't there something about shaking up cosy cliques?0 -
As opposed to '"Vote for me, I have just been imposed upon you by Central Office"Speedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.0 -
Hack from Hackney's 3 pennyworth on Rotherham.
http://www.leftfutures.org/2014/08/avoiding-charge-of-racism-is-a-cover-for-patriarchy-and-misogyny-in-rotherham/
No wonder she never made it beyond the backbenches.0 -
Earlier today, when I checked Wikipedia, Douglas Carswell's bio had:
"Carswell is the son of two medical doctors, and grew up in Bongo Bongo land, where his parents worked amongst local communities."
It has since been altered to say 'Africa'.
I don't like Wiki jokers, but I must say they're quick.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Douglas_Carswell&diff=623193577&oldid=6231623260 -
Splitters!
Wonder if we're seeing a real long term re-alignment, the permanent rise of a Lib Dems* of the Right, or if UKIP will be a one-parliament ish wonder?
*not a precise analogy but you get the point.0 -
What I don't understand is the consistent focus on Carswell saying that the PM only wants minimal change, and that he not serious about reform. Whether this is true or not, surely the point of a referendum on IN/OUT is that if you are not happy about the deal you vote OUT? Moreover in Carswell case, he would probably vote OUT in any scenario anyway. It does seem a little counter-productive in terms of EU membership.0
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Who cares, in by elections the central party takes the decision of candidate and looking at Mr.Lords comments he doesn't sound like the right man to have as a candidate for westminster anyway.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
The Lord situation seems rather peculiar. One would've thought the problem might have been anticipated.
It'd be ironic if the Conservatives (or Labour) won by UKIP managing to field two candidates - UKIP Official and UKIP Classic.
I think UKIP dodged a bullet.0 -
@jameskirkup: I really hope Roger Lord sues UKIP for violating his rights under the ECHR.0
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FPT
For 14 years the line from the political and media class was you could import millions of young men from some of the most violent and backward countries in the world without crime going up.SimonStClare said:BBC - "The police force at the centre of the Rotherham child abuse scandal is still failing to record crimes against children properly, a report has said.
South Yorkshire Police's public protection unit spent a "great deal of time" trying to "disprove" allegations, said HM Inspectorate of Constabulary.
It said the force's public protection unit showed "a disregard for victims"."
'trying to disprove allegations' ? - What the hell are South York's constabulary playing at, I thought their job was to investigate all crimes impartially, not automatically assume a position of Devil's Advocate.
Obviously that's not true.
So the stats had to be fiddled.
PC is so morally corrupting because it forces people to passively lie all the time to keep their jobs and actively lie all the time to get promoted.
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If I was the ukip candidate for Dagenham and Redbridge and Jon Cruddas defected from Labour, I'd stand down in the blink of an eyeSpeedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.
The main reason being ukip would go from 20/1 to 1/4 to win the seat
The fellow needs to do what's best for ukip if he is serious about wanting them to succeed
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Raising a smile after an undoubted blow to blue morale... great stuffRichard_Nabavi said:
True, but it is very funny.Sean_F said:Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.
Remind me, what was all that stuff about UKIP not being like other parties? Also wasn't there something about shaking up cosy cliques?
James Kirkup@jameskirkup·2 mins
I really hope Roger Lord sues UKIP for violating his rights under the ECHR.0 -
So you would vote for Mr. Lord over Mr. Carswell I presume, no matter the merits of the two.TheWatcher said:
As opposed to '"Vote for me, I have just been imposed upon you by Central Office"Speedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.0 -
Neither.Speedy said:
So you would vote for Mr. Lord over Mr. Carswell I presume, no matter the merits of the two.TheWatcher said:
As opposed to '"Vote for me, I have just been imposed upon you by Central Office"Speedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.
You can't campaign for a new kind of politics, and then play the game in the same way as those you criticise.0 -
Oh dear, Roger Lord, not a happy Teddy – and not the kind of chap to be pushed around by the sounds of things. He'll be gone by next May.0
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The second, but more damaging, I would expect. Like the SDP but likely to last longer.Hugh said:Splitters!
Wonder if we're seeing a real long term re-alignment, the permanent rise of a Lib Dems* of the Right, or if UKIP will be a one-parliament ish wonder?
*not a precise analogy but you get the point.
Madness, of course, but there we go. Plan your affairs accordingly.0 -
@rosschawkins: So Carswell is formal UKIP by elex candidate. But Gen Elex intended candidate unhappy. Will there be a Carswellian vote on issue?0
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@DPJHodges: Roger Lord is single-handedly taking apart Nigel Farage's "we're not like all the other parties" narrative.0
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This is endlessly amusing. I rather like WikiJokers, unlike WikiLeaks...JosiasJessop said:Earlier today, when I checked Wikipedia, Douglas Carswell's bio had:
"Carswell is the son of two medical doctors, and grew up in Bongo Bongo land, where his parents worked amongst local communities."
It has since been altered to say 'Africa'.
I don't like Wiki jokers, but I must say they're quick.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Douglas_Carswell&diff=623193577&oldid=6231623260 -
Given Mr Lord's reaction, perhaps they felt they couldn't trust him with the news.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
The Lord situation seems rather peculiar. One would've thought the problem might have been anticipated.
It'd be ironic if the Conservatives (or Labour) won by UKIP managing to field two candidates - UKIP Official and UKIP Classic.0 -
With Carswell a sure bet with such low value odds, will any bookie offer odds for Carswell's majority?0
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Haha even Cameron is reading from the script!
"regrettable"
Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman)
28/08/2014 12:12
The Tory whips have emailed MPs with their line to take on Carswell. I've seen it specc.ie/1lhlAhf0 -
The FT is mining this comedy gold brilliantly
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·22 secs
I've solved the riddle of why Roger Lord was in Nicaragua being assaulted by teenage gunmen.0 -
I'm sure it won't amount to anything, but it tells you something about how UKIP operates and don't you feel a bit sorry that the hapless Mr Lord has had his career in political destroyed through no fault of his own?Sean_F said:Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.
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No wonder he hasn't brought himself to comment on all those failings of Labour rule.SeanT said:And now the Rotherham scandal bleeds into neighbouring... Doncaster.
http://www.southyorkshiretimes.co.uk/news/local/doncaster-council-boss-linked-to-rotherham-abuse-scandal-1-6810631#.U__G5tmu09w.twitter
I'm trying to remember the name of the MP there. In Doncaster.
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Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 29mScrapheap_as_was said:The FT is mining this comedy gold brilliantly
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·22 secs
I've solved the riddle of why Roger Lord was in Nicaragua being assaulted by teenage gunmen.
Roger Lord: "I used to be on the Conservative party candidate list....I'm sure they would welcome me back with open arms."
Oh please please please make him the tory candidate, one deserves a laugh explaining what was he doing in Nicaragua.0 -
and after hearing from the ukip pollsters that it was one of the best bets in the UK for him winning... no wonder he's gutted!GIN1138 said:
I'm sure it won't amount to anything, but it tells you something about how UKIP operates and don't you feel a bit sorry that the hapless Mr Lord has had his career in political destroyed through no fault of his own?Sean_F said:Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.
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What a stellar career he would have had !GIN1138 said:
I'm sure it won't amount to anything, but it tells you something about how UKIP operates and don't you feel a bit sorry that the hapless Mr Lord has had his career in political destroyed through no fault of his own?Sean_F said:Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.
"Mr Lord, who was the ukip candidate when they made no effort against Douglas Carswell in Clacton in 2015..."0 -
Can he run in Rotherham?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure it won't amount to anything, but it tells you something about how UKIP operates and don't you feel a bit sorry that the hapless Mr Lord has had his career in political destroyed through no fault of his own?Sean_F said:Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.
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btw, isn't louise mensch a potty mouth...0
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Think about it from Roger Lord's perspective: he's been working hard for many years for UKIP, is selected and has a chance to win in a GE, and then someone is parachuted in from above kicking him in the teeth.isam said:
If I was the ukip candidate for Dagenham and Redbridge and Jon Cruddas defected from Labour, I'd stand down in the blink of an eyeSpeedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.
The main reason being ukip would go from 20/1 to 1/4 to win the seat
The fellow needs to do what's best for ukip if he is serious about wanting them to succeed
It would be bad enough for anyone in any party, but in a party that claims they are against back-room stitch-ups....
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Yes! That would be even funnier, a sort of political wife-swapping event.Speedy said:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 29mScrapheap_as_was said:The FT is mining this comedy gold brilliantly
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·22 secs
I've solved the riddle of why Roger Lord was in Nicaragua being assaulted by teenage gunmen.
Roger Lord: "I used to be on the Conservative party candidate list....I'm sure they would welcome me back with open arms."
Oh please please please make him the tory candidate, one deserves a laugh explaining what was he doing in Nicaragua.
We might was well get as much amusement out of this as we can.
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It does feel that way at the moment.Richard_Nabavi said:
The second, but more damaging, I would expect. Like the SDP but likely to last longer.Hugh said:Splitters!
Wonder if we're seeing a real long term re-alignment, the permanent rise of a Lib Dems* of the Right, or if UKIP will be a one-parliament ish wonder?
*not a precise analogy but you get the point.
Madness, of course, but there we go. Plan your affairs accordingly.
Which would mean the Tories probably have little chance of winning a majority for, well, a VERY long time. So without electoral reform that leaves periods of Labour majorities interspersed with coalitions of some stripe.
Ah well, c'est la vie...0 -
''I'm trying to remember the name of the MP there. In Doncaster. ''
You can see why the tories are annoyed at Carswell....0 -
FPTdr_spyn said:
Was there a particular problem specific to Rotherham? Did Labour's total dominance of this authority allow a complacent, rotten culture to develop? Was the political opposition so enfeebled that effective challenge to the leadership was striking by its absence?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-28971528
A rotten borough, with a rotten political leadership, and at the moment those in power are trying to shout wolves, there wolves and where wolves.
"Was there a particular problem specific to Rotherham? "
The only reason there was an investigation into Rotherham is the leaked minutes from child protection that showed them discussing the problem long before the Times broke the media's wall of silence.
If Con had instigated a wider investigation into how it was covered up - or if the BBC had done one themselves - they would have found the problem was the same all over the country and that the scale of gang-rape in Rotherham is not unique
e.g.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-25450512
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-23079649
etc
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She's thick as two short planks.Scrapheap_as_was said:btw, isn't louise mensch a potty mouth...
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In light of recent events the name if the strategy ukip might employ there needs updating... But I think my bet against @Southamobserver regarding Ed Miliband getting less than 50% of the vote looks better than yesterdaySeanT said:And now the Rotherham scandal bleeds into neighbouring... Doncaster.
http://www.southyorkshiretimes.co.uk/news/local/doncaster-council-boss-linked-to-rotherham-abuse-scandal-1-6810631#.U__G5tmu09w.twitter
I'm trying to remember the name of the MP there. In Doncaster.0 -
Well it makes sense for parties to have a different policies for by-elections, you want to make sure your best candidate stands and if something like this happens you want the defecting MP to be able to stand in your colours.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Roger Lord is single-handedly taking apart Nigel Farage's "we're not like all the other parties" narrative.
Mr Lord probably didn't have a chance at the GE anyway against Carswell, who is probably more eurosceptic than most Kippers. He should have welcomed him to the fold and negotiated hard for a better seat.
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You'd might as well say General Elections are "a prop for Labour" LOL!GIN1138 said:
UKIP IS a prop for Labour (as well as FPTP, the boundaries and 2010 Lib-Dems)Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
Nothing wrong with pointing out the blatantly obvious.0 -
PB faves retweet
Retweeted by Louise Mensch
sean thomas knox@thomasknox·4 mins
Dear @Ed_Miliband your local council chief in Doncaster is now linked to the Rotherham scandal. http://www.southyorkshiretimes.co.uk/news/local/doncaster-council-boss-linked-to-rotherham-abuse-scandal-1-6810631#.U__G5tmu09w.twitter … any thoughts on this?0 -
You get the candidate who is a [well ermm] in the head and UKIP get the one who looks like a Tory.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes! That would be even funnier, a sort of political wife-swapping event.Speedy said:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 29mScrapheap_as_was said:The FT is mining this comedy gold brilliantly
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·22 secs
I've solved the riddle of why Roger Lord was in Nicaragua being assaulted by teenage gunmen.
Roger Lord: "I used to be on the Conservative party candidate list....I'm sure they would welcome me back with open arms."
Oh please please please make him the tory candidate, one deserves a laugh explaining what was he doing in Nicaragua.
We might was well get as much amusement out of this as we can.
Just like Eastleigh.0 -
He sounds like a right pillock.SimonStClare said:Oh dear, Roger Lord, not a happy Teddy – and not the kind of chap to be pushed around by the sounds of things. He'll be gone by next May.
He never had a chance of becoming MP for Clacton, and now he has made a public fool of himself, he hasn't a chance of becoming an MP anywhere.
Isam has it spot on. If a top candidate suddenly becomes available in your seat seat where your Party's chances are otherwise minimal, you step quietly aside. It's far more dignified than being swatted aside, and leaves your political career intact.0 -
What chance do you reckon he had vs Carswell?MarkHopkins said:
Think about it from Roger Lord's perspective: he's been working hard for many years for UKIP, is selected and has a chance to win in a GE, and then someone is parachuted in from above kicking him in the teeth.isam said:
If I was the ukip candidate for Dagenham and Redbridge and Jon Cruddas defected from Labour, I'd stand down in the blink of an eyeSpeedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.
The main reason being ukip would go from 20/1 to 1/4 to win the seat
The fellow needs to do what's best for ukip if he is serious about wanting them to succeed
It would be bad enough for anyone in any party, but in a party that claims they are against back-room stitch-ups....
Ukip still have about 400 seats to fill, I'm sure he will be ok... Probably have more chance in his new seat to be honest0 -
Yes, I think that is very likely, and always has been, if Cameron doesn't get a majority (or at least close to it) in 2015. I think one can be very confident that there would be a major split. Labour did eventually learn the lesson of the eighties and early nineties, but it took a long time. You can see by the self-indulgence of ex-Tory supporters here that the lesson has been forgotten on the Right (indeed if they ever learnt it).Hugh said:It does feel that way at the moment.
Which would mean the Tories probably have little chance of winning a majority for, well, a VERY long time. So without electoral reform that leaves periods of Labour majorities interspersed with coalitions of some stripe.
Ah well, c'est la vie...
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Well, given Labour can apparently be a gazillion % behind and still get a majority due to 2010 Lib-Dems, FPTP and the boundaries...Sunil_Prasannan said:
You'd might as well say General Elections are "a prop for Labour" LOL!GIN1138 said:
UKIP IS a prop for Labour (as well as FPTP, the boundaries and 2010 Lib-Dems)Socrates said:It's telling even with this news that the reaction of conservatives isn't to discuss how they can keep UKIP-sympathisers in parliament and the party at large in the fold and accomodate their concerns. It's to spin every line they can against Carswell and call UKIP props for Labour.
Nothing wrong with pointing out the blatantly obvious.
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No she isn't.Hugh said:
She's thick as two short planks.Scrapheap_as_was said:btw, isn't louise mensch a potty mouth...
She used to post regularly here on PB, under a pseudonym. I wouldn't say she was one of the Site's best posters, but she wasn't thick.
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Carswell had a majority of 20,000 didn't he?MarkHopkins said:
Think about it from Roger Lord's perspective: he's been working hard for many years for UKIP, is selected and has a chance to win in a GE, and then someone is parachuted in from above kicking him in the teeth.isam said:
If I was the ukip candidate for Dagenham and Redbridge and Jon Cruddas defected from Labour, I'd stand down in the blink of an eyeSpeedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.
The main reason being ukip would go from 20/1 to 1/4 to win the seat
The fellow needs to do what's best for ukip if he is serious about wanting them to succeed
It would be bad enough for anyone in any party, but in a party that claims they are against back-room stitch-ups....
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And for Carswell, who's advocated primaries.MarkHopkins said:
Think about it from Roger Lord's perspective: he's been working hard for many years for UKIP, is selected and has a chance to win in a GE, and then someone is parachuted in from above kicking him in the teeth.isam said:
If I was the ukip candidate for Dagenham and Redbridge and Jon Cruddas defected from Labour, I'd stand down in the blink of an eyeSpeedy said:
I think it's a blessing for UKIP not to have Roger Lord as its candidate, all with his mercenary stuff that he talks about.Scrapheap_as_was said:Someone at UKIP needs to block Mr. Lord's phone to the FT
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·44 secs
Roger Lord tells me: "I don't want an apology..I want Carswell to stand down. (re local association) Key members have said they support me."
"Vote for me I have some questionable military experience from central america" doesn't go well.
The main reason being ukip would go from 20/1 to 1/4 to win the seat
The fellow needs to do what's best for ukip if he is serious about wanting them to succeed
It would be bad enough for anyone in any party, but in a party that claims they are against back-room stitch-ups....
I wonder if there was a different way to handle it, some kind of contest that Carswell was very likely to win anyway, but has a better look to it.0 -
It might have been the start of something... Look how many times Farage has tried (and failed) to get into Westminster...isam said:
What a stellar career he would have had !GIN1138 said:
I'm sure it won't amount to anything, but it tells you something about how UKIP operates and don't you feel a bit sorry that the hapless Mr Lord has had his career in political destroyed through no fault of his own?Sean_F said:Louise Mensch et al are clutching at straws if they think Mr. Lord's complaints will amount to a hill of beans.
"Mr Lord, who was the ukip candidate when they made no effort against Douglas Carswell in Clacton in 2015..."
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Goodwin, co-author of the book Revolt On The Right, explained on his blog: "This is because the seat contains high concentrations of voters who are likely to be very receptive toward Nigel Farage: it has lots of pensioners, lots of voters without a degree, lots of voters with no educational qualifications and higher than average levels of economic disadvantage and unemployment.
"UKIP tend to thrive in such communities --older, less well educated and insecure voters provide the ideal breeding ground for Farage's army.
"Clacton is also very 'white', with high numbers of voters born in the country and few minorities, which again favours UKIP, who poll strongest in ethnically homogeneous areas."
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-tories-clacton_n_5728682.html0 -
He doesn't like women who speak out.Peter_the_Punter said:
No she isn't.Hugh said:
She's thick as two short planks.Scrapheap_as_was said:btw, isn't louise mensch a potty mouth...
She used to post regularly here on PB, under a pseudonym. I wouldn't say she was one of the Site's best posters, but she wasn't thick.0 -
He was with Oliver North - you silly billy!Speedy said:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE · 29mScrapheap_as_was said:The FT is mining this comedy gold brilliantly
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·22 secs
I've solved the riddle of why Roger Lord was in Nicaragua being assaulted by teenage gunmen.
Roger Lord: "I used to be on the Conservative party candidate list....I'm sure they would welcome me back with open arms."
Oh please please please make him the tory candidate, one deserves a laugh explaining what was he doing in Nicaragua.0 -
Farage had to keep it a secret but at the same time Lord is entitled to be annoyed at this coming out of the blue so I wouldn't be too negative about the bloke.
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I shall pass your advice on to Mr Lord - once he has calmed down a tad...Peter_the_Punter said:
He sounds like a right pillock.SimonStClare said:Oh dear, Roger Lord, not a happy Teddy – and not the kind of chap to be pushed around by the sounds of things. He'll be gone by next May.
He never had a chance of becoming MP for Clacton, and now he has made a public fool of himself, he hasn't a chance of becoming an MP anywhere.
Isam has it spot on. If a top candidate suddenly becomes available in your seat where your Party's chances are otherwise minimal, you step quietly aside. It's far more dignified than being swatted aside, and leaves your political career intact.0 -
Just wait until there's an inquiry in Rochdale or Blackburn or Bradford or Telford or any of the other towns that shows similar industrial scale abuse there. Right now the popular conscious just thinks of it as epic failings of one particular group of institutions in one Yorkshire town.SeanT said:
Oh, I'm fairly sure Rotherham is going to run and run. Only 0.3% of the public know who Carswell is - or care. Rotherham will remain far more salient in the public conscience.taffys said:''I'm trying to remember the name of the MP there. In Doncaster. ''
You can see why the tories are annoyed at Carswell....
And there are already two inquiries, by Ofsted, up and running. And the ipcc is now asking for referrals re SYPolice
Then we will have all the hundreds of claims for compensation - which could reach £100m or more.
This horrific scandal will haunt us for years. And it could yet spread.
When people realise that this has happened in a second place, the inevitable question "how many places did this happen in?" will be everywhere. And when it becomes clear it has happened again and again in unrelated places across the country, people will start looking for the common cultural thread.0 -
Yes, the split on the right is entirely down to UKIP supporters and nothing at all to do with the Tory party. Keep telling yourself that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, I think that is very likely, and always has been, if Cameron doesn't get a majority (or at least close to it) in 2015. I think one can be very confident that there would be a major split. Labour did eventually learn the lesson of the eighties and early nineties, but it took a long time. You can see by the self-indulgence of ex-Tory supporters here that the lesson has been forgotten on the Right (indeed if they ever learnt it).Hugh said:It does feel that way at the moment.
Which would mean the Tories probably have little chance of winning a majority for, well, a VERY long time. So without electoral reform that leaves periods of Labour majorities interspersed with coalitions of some stripe.
Ah well, c'est la vie...0 -
To my mind that is the most urgent question. Alexis Jay said in her report that it is probable that similar things, and perhaps on a similar scale, have been going on elsewhere. We need a serious investigation of how much that has been the case. I'm not sure what the best format for such an investigation is, though.Socrates said:When people realise that this has happened in a second place, the inevitable question "how many places did this happen in?" will be everywhere.
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Quite. Oxford and Luton are another two IIRC.Socrates said:
Just wait until there's an inquiry in Rochdale or Blackburn or Bradford or Telford or any of the other towns that shows similar industrial scale abuse there. Right now the popular conscious just thinks of it as epic failings of one particular group of institutions in one Yorkshire town.SeanT said:
Oh, I'm fairly sure Rotherham is going to run and run. Only 0.3% of the public know who Carswell is - or care. Rotherham will remain far more salient in the public conscience.taffys said:''I'm trying to remember the name of the MP there. In Doncaster. ''
You can see why the tories are annoyed at Carswell....
And there are already two inquiries, by Ofsted, up and running. And the ipcc is now asking for referrals re SYPolice
Then we will have all the hundreds of claims for compensation - which could reach £100m or more.
This horrific scandal will haunt us for years. And it could yet spread.
When people realise that this has happened in a second place, the inevitable question "how many places did this happen in?" will be everywhere. And when it becomes clear it has happened again and again in unrelated places across the country, people will start looking for the common cultural thread.0 -
This is the biggest scandal for years. I can't see anything less than an independent judge-led parliamentary inquiry being sufficient.Richard_Nabavi said:
To my mind that is the most urgent question. Alexis Jay said in her report that it is probable that similar things, and perhaps on a similar scale, have been going on elsewhere. We need a serious investigation of how much that has been the case. I'm not sure what the best format for such an investigation is, though.Socrates said:When people realise that this has happened in a second place, the inevitable question "how many places did this happen in?" will be everywhere.
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Implied probability at Betfair of a YES win in Scotland is now up to 16.4%.
A lot of resources went in to getting their supporters heard the loudest at the second TV debate.
BT will be mad if they don't push on the £85000 question. How could iScotland keep the current UK level of protection of bank accounts, which is also the level required for EU membership, if there is no Scottish central bank? If they have a Scottish Financial Services Guarantee Scheme, who will do the guaranteeing>0 -
@Simon St Clare
I suspect Mr Lord is playing the situation for what it's worth. Now that would make sense.
Throwing toys out of the pram doesn't.0 -
Butler-Sloss is free.Socrates said:
This is the biggest scandal for years. I can't see anything less than an independent judge-led parliamentary inquiry being sufficient.Richard_Nabavi said:
To my mind that is the most urgent question. Alexis Jay said in her report that it is probable that similar things, and perhaps on a similar scale, have been going on elsewhere. We need a serious investigation of how much that has been the case. I'm not sure what the best format for such an investigation is, though.Socrates said:When people realise that this has happened in a second place, the inevitable question "how many places did this happen in?" will be everywhere.
Inquiry takes time - handy for kicking things into the long grass too.
The Home Office need to go mob handed into South Yorks police and find out why they haven't been following up on these serious crimes, and what on earth the CPS have been up to.0 -
Roger Lord on LBC - poor man... a little naive / deluded / detached?
https://audioboo.fm/boos/2431018-is-this-the-moment-roger-lord-found-out-he-wasn-t-ukip-s-clacton-candidate?utm_campaign=detailpage&utm_content=retweet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter0 -
What earlier today looked like a UKIP triumph is now beginning to look like a UKIP farce as the party's official pre-selected 2015 candidate, Roger Lord, has refused to stand down for Carswell, now also adopted as UKIP candidate by the UKIP NEC, thus there will be 2 UKIP candidates on the by-election ballot paper. '
'...he has "no intention" of stepping aside for the former Tory MP.
"It's an enormous discourtesy to anybody really just to announce that," he told BBC Essex.
He added: "Perhaps he's jumping ship to try and get in ahead of all the other Conservative MPs who are going to find themselves in the unemployment queue come next May."'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967904
Carswell is still favourite, but the Tories could yet produce a shock and win back the seat. I suggest they pick a local candidate, preferably a telegenic female, perhaps a local teacher or nurse, mildly Eurosceptic, but centrist enough to win over Labour and LD voters, many of whom will want to keep UKIP out as they did in Newark. If Labour falls to 3rd in a seat they held in 1997 and 2001 that would also be a blow to Miliband
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I don't care who is responsible. I'm a simple chap, I just want good government, and what I see is lot of self-indulgent flouncing which means we will get bad government.Socrates said:Yes, the split on the right is entirely down to UKIP supporters and nothing at all to do with the Tory party. Keep telling yourself that.
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Golly, Hugh calling someone thickPeter_the_Punter said:
No she isn't.Hugh said:
She's thick as two short planks.Scrapheap_as_was said:btw, isn't louise mensch a potty mouth...
She used to post regularly here on PB, under a pseudonym. I wouldn't say she was one of the Site's best posters, but she wasn't thick.
What does the mind do when the "boggle" response turns out to be wholly inadequate?
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BBC news at 6 is a wash for the Tories.
Cameron looked like he was moving house.
Nick Robinson said that when he asked Cameron about if he is going to support to leave the EU if he doesn't get his way he refused to answer ditto with Immigration.
And now second story Immigration numbers, third story Rotherham pakistani gangs.
It's all UKIP UKIP UKIP.0 -
Ultimately, why has Ed Miliband simply not demanded action? To show leadership, reassure core Labour voters, show he is in touch, or even just to defend Labour’s battered reputation?
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/08/28/why-has-labour-been-so-slow-to-react-to-rotherham/
Ed I am their leader, I must follow them Miliband.
What a shambles.0 -
In the coalition agreement there were proposals to encourage better government: recalls and primaries. Whatever happened to them?Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't care who is responsible. I'm a simple chap, I just want good government, and what I see is lot of self-indulgent flouncing which means we will get bad government.Socrates said:Yes, the split on the right is entirely down to UKIP supporters and nothing at all to do with the Tory party. Keep telling yourself that.
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It's hard for people to believe the scale of what's been done over the last 14 years but when you see the sort of people involved in the nomenklatura and how they want massively responsible salaries but never actually being responsible for anything you can see how they'd be mentally capable of covering up almost anything.SeanT said:And now the Rotherham scandal bleeds into neighbouring... Doncaster.
http://www.southyorkshiretimes.co.uk/news/local/doncaster-council-boss-linked-to-rotherham-abuse-scandal-1-6810631#.U__G5tmu09w.twitter
I'm trying to remember the name of the MP there. In Doncaster.
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Another point:
I've been banging on (*) for years that UKIP need to generate a well-developed plan for what leaving the EU would mean. Which organisations we would leave and continue to be in, what the costs and advantages would be etc. A bit like the Brexit prize but on steroids, including pre-talks with Brussels to smooth the process.
This is needed as soon as possible: if there is a 2016 referendum, then the eggs need to be in their basket well in advance. Failure to do so would just lead to the SNP's currency problem on steroids, and quite possibly a loss in the referendum.
Perhaps Carswell's the man to do this for UKIP. He can talk for both Conservative and UKIP supporters, and has thought deeply about other issues in the past and come up with decently-considered proposals.
Could Carswell be the architect of Brexit?
(*) Yes, really. I know it may surprise some of you, but I can really bang on about things at times. Engineering, trains, planes, the army, walking, even the dreaded HS2.0 -
I'm not certain that that is the right format. In part it needs police-style investigation, but the police are potentially tainted. Certainly Alexis Jay seems to have done a thorough job; perhaps something based on her approach would be appropriate.Socrates said:This is the biggest scandal for years. I can't see anything less than an independent judge-led parliamentary inquiry being sufficient.
What I think we will all agree on is that the government needs to put some serious effort into finding out the extent of the scandal.0 -
Doubt this will have much impact on the Scottish referendum despite earlier suggestions, if anything the fact that Thatcherite Tories are moving to UKIP suggests Cameron is not the rightwing monster the Yes campaign suggests, but is more in tune with the One Nation, moderate Toryism Scots used to vote for0
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Have you read Andrew Norfolk's piece in The Times about how he stumbled across it?
For those who haven't - he says he noticed a pattern of multiple Pakistani men being convicted across the area when he was stationed in Leeds by The Times. No one seemed interested in the court reports and after feeling great reluctance to draw an *ethnic* dimension conclusion - he put it out of his mind for several years. His conscience finally got the better of him and he started piecing the evidence together.
He was met with a wall of hostility and silence/called a racist blah blah - then he got his breakthrough when a girl victim gave him an intv. That formed the splash in the newpaper and stirred up a hornets nest.
His Editor told him it was now his full time job to investigate the whole sorry business. Three yrs on, and here we are. Barnado's instructed their staff not to talk to him or The Times even off the record. Rotherham Council tried to get the story blocked in the High Court... they suspended a whistleblower and launched a leak inquiry when 200 sets of case notes fell onto his desk. Their interest in actually protecting children seemed of no interest.
You can subscribe for £1 for a month to read the whole lot.Richard_Nabavi said:
To my mind that is the most urgent question. Alexis Jay said in her report that it is probable that similar things, and perhaps on a similar scale, have been going on elsewhere. We need a serious investigation of how much that has been the case. I'm not sure what the best format for such an investigation is, though.Socrates said:When people realise that this has happened in a second place, the inevitable question "how many places did this happen in?" will be everywhere.
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