Richard Tyndall Wrong, There was a high turnout in the Newark by-election of over 50% and yet the Labour vote fell by almost 5% against the national trend and the LD vote fell by 17%. The UKIP vote rose by 22%, but the Tory vote only fell by 8%, so clearly some Labour and LD voters voted Tory offsetting some of the Tory voters who voted UKIP
The answer to that is Roger Helmer. I said from the moment he was selected that he throws UKIP back at least a decade in political development and he would push everyone else to vote against him.
UKIP should have won that seat and Helmer was undoubtedly the wrong choice. He was the left-wing's stereotype of what a UKIP member was. We need more types like Diane James and Paul Nuttall instead.
UKIP shouldn't make the mistake of allowing the Labour Party or the left to define them as the Tories have. That is the biggest reason why the Tory brand is trashed. UKIP should disregard and dismiss left wing stereotypes for the crude bigotry they generally are. They should play the game on their terms and not on Labour's or any other parties..
Doncaster another model council when it comes to protecting children,
The brothers had been put in care by Doncaster Council, whose children's services department was recently described as 'chaotic and dangerous' following the death of seven vulnerable youngsters.
And I don't want to keep hearing lessons are being learned and we have improved our rating since this incident, while all those whose job it is to be involved in "safe-guarding" merrily carry on as if nothing as happened.
People getting promoted and moved to a different local authority when they screw up instead of being sacked is a bit like evolution in reverse - you get an ever growing collection of bad genes at the top.
Its not too different in my world!
Hospital managers* are like football managers, they always seem to get another job, even when being moved on for failure.
*I should point out that the current SMT at my hospital are the best managers I have encountered in 25 years in the NHS. All the right values and priorities.
Richard Tyndall Wrong, There was a high turnout in the Newark by-election of over 50% and yet the Labour vote fell by almost 5% against the national trend and the LD vote fell by 17%. The UKIP vote rose by 22%, but the Tory vote only fell by 8%, so clearly some Labour and LD voters voted Tory offsetting some of the Tory voters who voted UKIP
The answer to that is Roger Helmer. I said from the moment he was selected that he throws UKIP back at least a decade in political development and he would push everyone else to vote against him.
UKIP should have won that seat and Helmer was undoubtedly the wrong choice. He was the left-wing's stereotype of what a UKIP member was. We need more types like Diane James and Paul Nuttall instead.
UKIP shouldn't make the mistake of allowing the Labour Party or the left to define them as the Tories have. That is the biggest reason why the Tory brand is trashed. UKIP should disregard and dismiss left wing stereotype's for the crude bigotry they generally are. They should play the game on their terms and not on Labour's or any other parties..
Then they (you?) should sort out their election literature.
Currently it is vile and deserves all the opprobrium it attracts.
Perhaps Carswell was making a step in that direction in which case so much the better (doesn't forgive his switching) but as it stands you have the Farage wing of UKIP and I guess you will soon have the Carswell wing of UKIP. The Carswell wing is more electable, although god only knows what policies will fill the manifesto: we want more done and we want it done now although don't push us on the detail or funding or...or...
Plus, of course, and assuming Farage has had any sort of input into existing UKIP campaigns (huge assumption I grant you) then the two wings are mutually exclusive.
ManofKent There is a difference between plausible and certain.
Speedy Maybe, but Carswell is hardly a voice of liberal enlightenment either
No result is certain. My main point was that your comparison between Newark and Clacton was misleading as there is no realistic comparison between the two.
PS Isn't the phrase 'liberal enlightenment' an oxymoron?
Implied probability at Betfair of a YES win in Scotland now up to 17.2%. Who said the turnout would very probably be under 80%? If this swing continues, it could be higher. I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the next serious poll. And also for the first one where sampling was done after the TV debate buzz has subsided.
What a day - can only conclude the Tories aren't serious about winning the GE sadly. No space for indiscipline, bit it's been coming with Cameron's appeasement of the Europhobes.
Yes. That is the source of my bile towards Carswell and the other "rebels".
Indiscipline (oh the irony) and a lack of I don't know, worldliness, pragmatism, insight into how politics works.
First they are furious at being in a Coalition and then they don't work hard to get an OM. Just shows that the Tories were out of power for too long so have forgotten the art of politics (which is not the same as spinning/PR).
God we really do get the politics we deserve.
Yep and Cameron encapsulates that perfectly. If you want to see what is tearing the Tory party apart look no further than your leader.
Also have to disagree with JosiasJessop On grammar schools, Germany has grammar schools as well as excellent technical schools and high schools, showing they can still allow an all-round excellent education suited to pupils' needs. Selection does not have to be at 11 either, Finland selects at 16, and many grammars allow sixth form entry
''More than in most other developed countries, however, the biggest determinant of a German child's educational track appears to be his or her family's socioeconomic status. Even with similar grades, children with college-educated parents are at least three times more likely to go on to Gymnasien than those from working-class families, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.''
So do you care to refine your disagreement ?
As far as I can see Germany selects at 10. Try peddling that to win seats off Labour - do you think UKIP will try. Grammar schools in Kent are stretching criteria with Headmasters Picks, which make it sound more like X-Factor than an education system.
Fox Indeed, Labour will also have a chance, but are probably too far behind now, especially after boundary changes, as they were in Newark, and the story will be Tory v UKIP with the UKIP vote split
What effect are the boundary changes in notional terms?
My interest in this is mostly in the betting.
Past experiences of defecting MPs is that their personal following is seldom as big as they like to think, and Tories are particularly hard on disloyalty.
Actual 2005 Harwich result:
Con 21,235 Lab 20,315 LD 5,913 UKIP 2,314 Respect 477 Ind 154
I have a feeling that 'safeguarding' will become one of those anti-words, which is ironically taken to mean the opposite of what it says, after Rotherham.
A a huge loss of confidence in council officialdom the real upshot of all this??? Not that there ever was much confidence.
What a day - can only conclude the Tories aren't serious about winning the GE sadly. No space for indiscipline, bit it's been coming with Cameron's appeasement of the Europhobes.
Yes. That is the source of my bile towards Carswell and the other "rebels".
Indiscipline (oh the irony) and a lack of I don't know, worldliness, pragmatism, insight into how politics works.
First they are furious at being in a Coalition and then they don't work hard to get an OM. Just shows that the Tories were out of power for too long so have forgotten the art of politics (which is not the same as spinning/PR).
God we really do get the politics we deserve.
Yep and Cameron encapsulates that perfectly. If you want to see what is tearing the Tory party apart look no further than your leader.
I wish I could disagree more virulently but I will satisfy (delude) myself for the moment by saying that the jury is out.
OGH counselled the other day against assuming that UKIP voters are tories on holiday. The assumption today appears to be that all Clacton tory voters are UKIP voters on holiday. Lots of tories are, actually, tories. Carswell's high personal ratings could quite possibly nosedive over the selection issue. "Unstoppable", and 1/4, seem way over the top for me.
A black day for the blues admittedly, but Lord and Wright in their own special ways are keeping the game alive for us. And more to the point, at least SOMETHING is happening.
I have a feeling that 'safeguarding' will become one of those anti-words, which is ironically taken to mean the opposite of what it says, after Rotherham.
A a huge loss of confidence in council officialdom the real upshot of all this??? Not that there ever was much confidence.
Doncaster another model council when it comes to protecting children,
The brothers had been put in care by Doncaster Council, whose children's services department was recently described as 'chaotic and dangerous' following the death of seven vulnerable youngsters.
And I don't want to keep hearing lessons are being learned and we have improved our rating since this incident, while all those whose job it is to be involved in "safe-guarding" merrily carry on as if nothing as happened.
People getting promoted and moved to a different local authority when they screw up instead of being sacked is a bit like evolution in reverse - you get an ever growing collection of bad genes at the top.
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·4 mins Ukip: "Roger Lord has never been the by-election candidate for Clacton." (He was only ever the general election candidate.)
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·5 mins Ukip's handling of Roger Lord is a becoming a cross between something out of Carry On script and something from Orwell.
Jim Pickard@PickardJE·8 mins Roger Lord, ex Ukip Clacton candidate: "I had a call from the party secretary threatening to throw me out of the party if I don't shut up."
Confirms what I said on the previous thread that he hadn't been selected as far as the national party was concerned.
'Ukip: "Roger Lord has never been the by-election candidate for Clacton." (He was only ever the general election candidate.)' Hilarious. The writing is on the wall, ''All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others''
To answer the thread: Yes Carswell has, he keeps a separate record of his voters and supporters from the local tories. So he has full access to all the information that someone needs to get elected.
Is he covered by the Data Protection Act? That information was gathered by and for the Conservative Party, you can't just take personal data and use it for another party. I vaguely remember a Lib Dem local organiser in the early/mid 90s defecting and trying to bring his database with him and that creating a huge stink.
Interesting. No idea of the law on this but given that voters legally vote for a candidate not a party it would be fascinating to see that one play out in court.
Andy's referring to canvassing data, though, not voting data.
Just thinking, can the Tories get away without moving the writ for Clacton at all. They won't want a early poll considering the lack of a Tory candidate, soon enough it'll be the run up to Christmas and then the general election will be mere weeks away.
They don't have a majority - the others could move the writ.
ManofKent Maybe, and certainly Carswell is a stronger favourite than Helmer, but ideologically there is no difference between the two. As I keep saying the Tories should pick an inoffensive local gp or teacher in an open primary, then ram home Carswell's reactionary views to Labour and LD supporters, make the race a Tory v UKIP battle, and perhaps squeak home
Also have to disagree with JosiasJessop On grammar schools, Germany has grammar schools as well as excellent technical schools and high schools, showing they can still allow an all-round excellent education suited to pupils' needs. Selection does not have to be at 11 either, Finland selects at 16, and many grammars allow sixth form entry
''More than in most other developed countries, however, the biggest determinant of a German child's educational track appears to be his or her family's socioeconomic status. Even with similar grades, children with college-educated parents are at least three times more likely to go on to Gymnasien than those from working-class families, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.''
So do you care to refine your disagreement ?
As far as I can see Germany selects at 10. Try peddling that to win seats off Labour - do you think UKIP will try. Grammar schools in Kent are stretching criteria with Headmasters Picks, which make it sound more like X-Factor than an education system.
If you look at the countries that perform very highly on PISA (Finland), or those that have improved a lot (Poland), the approach has been a "no excuses" one. We have far too many teachers in our system who seem to believe that not too much can be expected of working class/broken family/ethnic minority kids, that maths is too hard for them and they should be doing woodwork instead etc. Actually the evidence shows that if you have rigour early on, virtually all kids should be able to do a lot better than they're currently doing.
Flightpath And yet Germany still has higher social mobility than the UK with our wonderful comprehensive system. Finland has higher mobility still, and as I said selects at 16. Most polls show voters support more grammars, no reason they cannot have ballots to open them as well as close them
Richard Tyndall Wrong, There was a high turnout in the Newark by-election of over 50% and yet the Labour vote fell by almost 5% against the national trend and the LD vote fell by 17%. The UKIP vote rose by 22%, but the Tory vote only fell by 8%, so clearly some Labour and LD voters voted Tory offsetting some of the Tory voters who voted UKIP . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_by-election,_2014
Nope wrong. I said before the election was even called that the Tories would hold Newark and it had nothing to do with anti-UKIP voting.
If you look at the actual numbers rather than the percentages the turnout between 2010 and 2014 fell by almost 13,000 - almost exactly the same as the combined drop in Labour and Lib Dem votes. There is no need to spirit up some anti-UKIP vote to explain the result and where the votes went.
No party outside of the Tories was ever going to win the Newark by-election in 2013. We knew that from the very start.. at least those of us who actually knew the constituency did.
Ukip shouldn't attack the bloke. If he thought he was the candidate and told all his mates then he's just been massively shown up in public in front of his friends so he's bound to be narked. On the other hand it had to be kept a secret (imo) so they should just say it was a necessary thing, apologize about it and then give him some flannel in private. If he's an ex-colonel arguments with the word "necessary" in should work eventually.
Speedy Rubbish, the seat has an in-built Tory majority, especially after boundary changes, there is no reason a good local Tory candidate should not have a chance, especially with a split UKIP vote
ManofKent Maybe, and certainly Carswell is a stronger favourite than Helmer, but ideologically there is no difference between the two. As I keep saying the Tories should pick an inoffensive local gp or teacher in an open primary, then ram home Carswell's reactionary views to Labour and LD supporters, make the race a Tory v UKIP battle, and perhaps squeak home
Its over HYUFD, over before it even begun, just let it go.
"Mr Carswell is a big, serious figure. A cerebral libertarian, he has campaigned against quantitative easing and low interest rates, proposed sweeping political reforms and authored a well-reviewed book on e-democracy (the contents of which he discusses in the video below, part of an essay on democracy that we published in February 2014). He wants to leave the EU, but out of a desire to radically overhaul the British state, not out of narrow-minded nationalism."
I'm both intrigued and appalled at the idea that Labour may want to quash any further inquiries into child abuse for fear it will lose them votes. Do they really want to be seen as the party that protects "kiddie fiddlers"?
Much as I dislike Labour can this really be so?
Incidentally, the interview with Andrew Norfolk on this morning's Today programme is worth listening to. He makes it clear that the racial element is a key one, that it's going on in lots of other towns, that the authorities were desperate to stop any story coming out and that Shaun Wright's response to him was "Why are you picking on Rotherham?"
That journalist deserves every award going. He's a rebuke to all those who think, post-Leveson, that the press need controlling.
This story is exactly why we we need a free press that publishes stories which the authorities did their damndest to hide from us.
Speedy The Tories haven't even picked a candidate yet, which is why they should call an open primary and pick a well known, popular local face. If you put Osborne against the well known local MP of course Carswell would win!
She probably has a better degree from a better university than you do, mind.
Just sayin'
Which has no relevance to Hugh's comments on any politician including La Mensch. Or are we not allowed to criticise our "betters"?
He didn't comment on her as a politician, he called her "thick" as a poster on this site. Charles' reference to his qualifications (unvivaed fail, University of Life) was harsh, but not unjustifiable in the circs.
Miss Cyclefree, I always held the view that a wild press was better than a tame one, but you're right that this is a strong argument for a free press (not that it needed another one).
It's appalling, and the scale is shocking. That 1,400 incidents of child sexual abuse has been referred to as the 'tip of the iceberg' is sickening.
Just thinking, can the Tories get away without moving the writ for Clacton at all. They won't want a early poll considering the lack of a Tory candidate, soon enough it'll be the run up to Christmas and then the general election will be mere weeks away.
I think the previous record delay (aside from some Eire by-elections 1920-22, which were never called at all, and one or two where the incumbent was missing, presumed dead) was about 5 months...
Flightpath And yet Germany still has higher social mobility than the UK with our wonderful comprehensive system. Finland has higher mobility still, and as I said selects at 16. Most polls show voters support more grammars, no reason they cannot have ballots to open them as well as close them
Mr HYUFD, I think it would be grave mistake, and probably impossible, to return to grammar schools nationally unless the effort was made to introduce the third tier, the technical schools that were in the '44 Act but never really happened because the educational establishment hated the idea (they were also in the 1874 Parliamentary Commission's report but were killed off then for the same reason).
Speedy The Tories haven't even picked a candidate yet, which is why they should call an open primary and pick a well known, popular local face. If you put Osborne against the well known local MP of course Carswell would win!
They don't have a well known local popular figure, the only one was Carswell. Just let it go HYUFD, let it go.
'Safeguarding services'. What did they do, hand out condoms?
Who exactly were they safeguarding?
They were safeguarding the salaries of the bigwigs.
I hope all the senior officers in Rotherham, in their social services department and the PPC himself get sued. They ought to pay the damages personally not expect the Rotherham council taxpayer to fund their gross negligence.
Also have to disagree with JosiasJessop On grammar schools, Germany has grammar schools as well as excellent technical schools and high schools, showing they can still allow an all-round excellent education suited to pupils' needs. Selection does not have to be at 11 either, Finland selects at 16, and many grammars allow sixth form entry
This is off-topic, but my problem is not with grammar schools per se; it is the fact that such talk concentrates on the upper end of the skill range.
The children who really need our help and energy are those at the bottom; the twenty-odd percent who are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate. These figures have remained obstinately around the same mark for generations, and seem impervious to political rhetoric.
If grammar schools are part of the solution (and they may be), then the associated change at the lower end would have to be so massive that it dwarfs a change back to grammar schools and selection. Basically, those concentrating on grammar schools are looking at the wrong people.
I'd be happy if people said: "An education system with grammar schools and much improved help / money spent on those left behind at the lower end of the scale," or somesuch. But few do.
As another aside, would we as a nation be willing to see a doubling of the money spent on children in care if it prevented further such hideous abuses, and made those children more prepared and educated for adult life? Would it be cheaper just to pack them off to private schools? Should we make adoption even easier (something th coalition has been making strides on)?
Russia continues to occupy Crimea, in defiance of international law.
Ah yes, no one cares about it, just the Poles. I keep a record of the conflict just for history and sport stuff, there is plenty of bull....t from both sides.
Speedy Rubbish, the seat has an in-built Tory majority, especially after boundary changes, there is no reason a good local Tory candidate should not have a chance, especially with a split UKIP vote
There's no split UKIP vote. Mr. Lord is just being silly.
If I were chosen to fight Luton South for UKIP, and then Gavin Shuker joined UKIP, of course i'd stand down for the sitting MP. And nor would I expect to be included in high-level, secret, negotiations.
Also have to disagree with JosiasJessop On grammar schools, Germany has grammar schools as well as excellent technical schools and high schools, showing they can still allow an all-round excellent education suited to pupils' needs. Selection does not have to be at 11 either, Finland selects at 16, and many grammars allow sixth form entry
''More than in most other developed countries, however, the biggest determinant of a German child's educational track appears to be his or her family's socioeconomic status. Even with similar grades, children with college-educated parents are at least three times more likely to go on to Gymnasien than those from working-class families, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.''
So do you care to refine your disagreement ?
As far as I can see Germany selects at 10. Try peddling that to win seats off Labour - do you think UKIP will try. Grammar schools in Kent are stretching criteria with Headmasters Picks, which make it sound more like X-Factor than an education system.
If you look at the countries that perform very highly on PISA (Finland), or those that have improved a lot (Poland), the approach has been a "no excuses" one. We have far too many teachers in our system who seem to believe that not too much can be expected of working class/broken family/ethnic minority kids, that maths is too hard for them and they should be doing woodwork instead etc. Actually the evidence shows that if you have rigour early on, virtually all kids should be able to do a lot better than they're currently doing.
Agree. I have mentioned before a couple of families I know from Northeast Derbyshire, where the fathers were raised in the late 1970s. One was told by a teacher that there was little point educating him, as he would just end up working in the pit or doing manual labour. The other was told he probably would not get a job.
They were a lost generation.
Mind you, parents have got a massive role to play as well.
My party has fared badly in the polls before. In 1989 they were unrecordable in the polls, in 97 they doubled their seats. After 2015 there will be a need for a sensible centrist party between the Europhobic xenophobes on the one side and the spendthrifts on the other. In the long run there will always be a place for the LibDems.
Looking at the local election results, the closest parallel appears to be 79/80.
ManofKent Maybe, and certainly Carswell is a stronger favourite than Helmer, but ideologically there is no difference between the two. As I keep saying the Tories should pick an inoffensive local gp or teacher in an open primary, then ram home Carswell's reactionary views to Labour and LD supporters, make the race a Tory v UKIP battle, and perhaps squeak home
What after the way Cameron and his cult have ostracised the last successful open primary candidate the GP Dr.Sarah Wollaton for doing her job and vetting NHS legislation? Good luck with that one.
As for the rest, I think the local community will judge Carswell more on his performance as an MP rather than your extreme view of him. That you think core vote Libdems and Labour voters (which are probably all that are left in a place like Clacton) will take notice of Tory propaganda is probably the most optimistic part of your rather optimistic speculation.
Also have to disagree with JosiasJessop On grammar schools, Germany has grammar schools as well as excellent technical schools and high schools, showing they can still allow an all-round excellent education suited to pupils' needs. Selection does not have to be at 11 either, Finland selects at 16, and many grammars allow sixth form entry
This is off-topic, but my problem is not with grammar schools per se; it is the fact that such talk concentrates on the upper end of the skill range.
The children who really need our help and energy are those at the bottom; the twenty-odd percent who are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate. These figures have remained obstinately around the same mark for generations, and seem impervious to political rhetoric.
If grammar schools are part of the solution (and they may be), then the associated change at the lower end would have to be so massive that it dwarfs a change back to grammar schools and selection. Basically, those concentrating on grammar schools are looking at the wrong people.
I'd be happy if people said: "An education system with grammar schools and much improved help / money spent on those left behind at the lower end of the scale," or somesuch. But few do.
As another aside, would we as a nation be willing to see a doubling of the money spent on children in care if it prevented further such hideous abuses, and made those children more prepared and educated for adult life? Would it be cheaper just to pack them off to private schools? Should we make adoption even easier (something th coalition has been making strides on)?
A lot of good sense, JJ. Only one quibble: at the end. Only people who have no real-world experience of adoption think it's a magic bullet. I was adopted in infancy by a couple (now passed on) who had enough trouble with each other, let alone children. I'll say no more.
Miss Cyclefree, I always held the view that a wild press was better than a tame one, but you're right that this is a strong argument for a free press (not that it needed another one).
It's appalling, and the scale is shocking. That 1,400 incidents of child sexual abuse has been referred to as the 'tip of the iceberg' is sickening.
It shows exactly why giving politicians power to control the press will be abused. The first reaction of Rotherham council to the Times's inquiries was to try and suppress them. And that's under the existing law.
Imagine what they will be able to do if Labour implements Leveson's proposals in full, as they have said they will?
It means that we'll never be able to find out about scandals such as this or other similar ones.
Incidentally, I'm willing to guess that if you investigated how Pakistani-heritage girls in these towns have been treated by their parents and menfolk you will find some pretty harrowing stories. People who are willing to behave like this to one woman are not suddenly going to turn into perfect gentlemen the minute they walk through their front door. Were I a journalist that's where I would start looking: there's a story there about the different types of abuse women, whether white or not, face at the hands of men with a violently mysogynistic and contemptuous view of women as a whole.
Speedy Well Helmer would agree with most of that too. Carswell also supports further tax cuts for the rich, deeper austerity, is anti gay marriage and sceptical of climate change
"Would it be cheaper just to pack them off to private schools?"
Almost certainly yes and it would probably provide a better end result. The tricky bit is the holidays but for the older ones there is Outward Bound (a fine organisation) and a bit of imagination and a moderate cost would provide a solution for all.
Speedy Rubbish, the seat has an in-built Tory majority, especially after boundary changes, there is no reason a good local Tory candidate should not have a chance, especially with a split UKIP vote
There's no split UKIP vote. Mr. Lord is just being silly.
If I were chosen to fight Luton South for UKIP, and then Gavin Shuker joined UKIP, of course i'd stand down for the sitting MP. And nor would I expect to be included in high-level, secret, negotiations.
Are you the UKIP candidate for Luton South? I'll add you to my candidates' list if so.
ManofKent Maybe, and certainly Carswell is a stronger favourite than Helmer, but ideologically there is no difference between the two. As I keep saying the Tories should pick an inoffensive local gp or teacher in an open primary, then ram home Carswell's reactionary views to Labour and LD supporters, make the race a Tory v UKIP battle, and perhaps squeak home
This is Essex. Essex voters are very right wing. Carswell will win.
I think the key question - about 100 times more important than anything else - is the potential impact of a Carswell win on OFCOM determination of whether UKIP is a Major Party at the GE.
Pro Major Party argument - UKIP by-election win provides evidence UKIP is serious force at GE.
Anti Major Party argument - Carswell only re-elected due to personal vote as incumbent MP.
In my view this will decide whether there are GE debates.
Cameron simply will not, under any circumstances, agree to GE debates with Farage in all of them (though he may agree to the 5-3-2).
So IF OFCOM gives UKIP Major Party status because of Carswell win then Carswell win will mean no GE debates.
She probably has a better degree from a better university than you do, mind.
Just sayin'
Which has no relevance to Hugh's comments on any politician including La Mensch. Or are we not allowed to criticise our "betters"?
It does have relevance to his claim that she is "thick as two short planks" which was what I was responding to.
I'd be happy to accept university/degree class is not a perfect measure of intelligence, but it's a reasonable proxy.
I mean is it ?
A degree might measure intellect or the ability to think in a set way but intelligence has many more facets, not least emotional. The problem we face is that people with degrees like to puff themselves up on a single measure even though many of them are pure dorks who can't eat a bacon sandwich.
Speedy Well Helmer would agree with most of that too. Carswell also supports further tax cuts for the rich, deeper austerity, is anti gay marriage and sceptical of climate change
So he also wont split the UKIP vote and he will keep the Tory vote (and get LD on his side with his radical liberal democratic reform proposals).
If I were UKIP I would call it just before the Tory party conference. Make Camerons announcement about campaigning against the EU seem very very hollow.
They were safeguarding the salaries of the bigwigs.
The only places you will ever hit labour politicians are the pocket and the ballot box. Same goes for all politicians.
In the end, we need the voters of Rotherham to vote for someone else. But they don't. And they won't.
The reason??? Rotherham, like so many labour constituencies, is a walking corpse of a town, kept moving by public money. The economic reasons for its existence ended decades ago.
HurstLlama Ken Baker has sensibly proposed just such a reintroduction and indeed the government has adopted the idea and the first 17 technical schools have opened with 30 more to come http://www.utcolleges.org/
A Labour victory would be hilarious though it might focus minds on the right about the possibility of a Miliband majority. One of the good things at the moment is that people are underestimating him (or at least how the numbers benefit him) which is handy so long as his own side don't reckon he's a duffer.
I really hope Labour voters don't vote Tory to stop Ukip or vice versa.
If I were UKIP I would call it just before the Tory party conference. Make Camerons announcement about campaigning against the EU seem very very hollow.
The Tory party decides, the law has some limits so they can't push it for too long or have it too early, unavoidably it will coincide with the conferences.
If I were UKIP I would call it just before the Tory party conference. Make Camerons announcement about campaigning against the EU seem very very hollow.
Not possible due to the new rules which extend the number of working days from writ to election from 17 to 25.
Earliest possible date is 2nd October, the day after the Conservative conference closes.
Also have to disagree with JosiasJessop On grammar schools, Germany has grammar schools as well as excellent technical schools and high schools, showing they can still allow an all-round excellent education suited to pupils' needs. Selection does not have to be at 11 either, Finland selects at 16, and many grammars allow sixth form entry
This is off-topic, but my problem is not with grammar schools per se; it is the fact that such talk concentrates on the upper end of the skill range.
The children who really need our help and energy are those at the bottom; the twenty-odd percent who are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate. These figures have remained obstinately around the same mark for generations, and seem impervious to political rhetoric.
If grammar schools are part of the solution (and they may be), then the associated change at the lower end would have to be so massive that it dwarfs a change back to grammar schools and selection. Basically, those concentrating on grammar schools are looking at the wrong people.
I'd be happy if people said: "An education system with grammar schools and much improved help / money spent on those left behind at the lower end of the scale," or somesuch. But few do.
As another aside, would we as a nation be willing to see a doubling of the money spent on children in care if it prevented further such hideous abuses, and made those children more prepared and educated for adult life? Would it be cheaper just to pack them off to private schools? Should we make adoption even easier (something th coalition has been making strides on)?
A lot of good sense, JJ. Only one quibble: at the end. Only people who have no real-world experience of adoption think it's a magic bullet. I was adopted in infancy by a couple (now passed on) who had enough trouble with each other, let alone children. I'll say no more.
Fair enough. My best friend was adopted, as was his sister, and they both had a fine upbringing, even when their dad died in tragic circumstances (he had a heart attack after chasing some thieves who were breaking into a neighbour's house / car). So I probably do have a rosy view of it.
I'm sorry your experience was different.
To be frank, their family seemed so normal that I forgot for years that they were adopted, only remembering when we were invited to meet his birth mother.
It's another question: is adoption better than life in care, on average?
Miss Cyclefree, I always held the view that a wild press was better than a tame one, but you're right that this is a strong argument for a free press (not that it needed another one).
It's appalling, and the scale is shocking. That 1,400 incidents of child sexual abuse has been referred to as the 'tip of the iceberg' is sickening.
Speedy Rubbish, the seat has an in-built Tory majority, especially after boundary changes, there is no reason a good local Tory candidate should not have a chance, especially with a split UKIP vote
There's no split UKIP vote. Mr. Lord is just being silly.
If I were chosen to fight Luton South for UKIP, and then Gavin Shuker joined UKIP, of course i'd stand down for the sitting MP. And nor would I expect to be included in high-level, secret, negotiations.
Are you the UKIP candidate for Luton South? I'll add you to my candidates' list if so.
Miss Cyclefree, I always held the view that a wild press was better than a tame one, but you're right that this is a strong argument for a free press (not that it needed another one).
It's appalling, and the scale is shocking. That 1,400 incidents of child sexual abuse has been referred to as the 'tip of the iceberg' is sickening.
It shows exactly why giving politicians power to control the press will be abused. The first reaction of Rotherham council to the Times's inquiries was to try and suppress them. And that's under the existing law.
Imagine what they will be able to do if Labour implements Leveson's proposals in full, as they have said they will?
It means that we'll never be able to find out about scandals such as this or other similar ones.
Incidentally, I'm willing to guess that if you investigated how Pakistani-heritage girls in these towns have been treated by their parents and menfolk you will find some pretty harrowing stories. People who are willing to behave like this to one woman are not suddenly going to turn into perfect gentlemen the minute they walk through their front door. Were I a journalist that's where I would start looking: there's a story there about the different types of abuse women, whether white or not, face at the hands of men with a violently mysogynistic and contemptuous view of women as a whole.
The report mentions Asian girls among the victims.
Speedy No, as I said he is for deeper spending cuts than the Tories, hence alienating public sector workers, opposes gay marriage, thus alienating virtually all young and socially liberal voters and LDs and many Tories. There is ample ammunition for the Tories to capitalise on if they pick a good local candidate
I read in The Times yesterday that 15 of the victims have already engaged lawyers for a class action against Rotherham Council. Their going for £100k each - if this catches on, it'll be a huge sum to pay.
'Safeguarding services'. What did they do, hand out condoms?
Who exactly were they safeguarding?
They were safeguarding the salaries of the bigwigs.
I hope all the senior officers in Rotherham, in their social services department and the PPC himself get sued. They ought to pay the damages personally not expect the Rotherham council taxpayer to fund their gross negligence.
17% of adults in Clacton are over the age of 75, but since they turn out at higher rates than younger people it's possible they could account for as much as 25% of votes cast in the by-election.
Sean F Well most of the seat had a Labour majority in 1997 and 2001 it is not that rightwing. Carswell will start as strong favourite, but he is not unstoppable
She probably has a better degree from a better university than you do, mind.
Just sayin'
Which has no relevance to Hugh's comments on any politician including La Mensch. Or are we not allowed to criticise our "betters"?
It does have relevance to his claim that she is "thick as two short planks" which was what I was responding to.
I'd be happy to accept university/degree class is not a perfect measure of intelligence, but it's a reasonable proxy.
I mean is it ?
A degree might measure intellect or the ability to think in a set way but intelligence has many more facets, not least emotional. The problem we face is that people with degrees like to puff themselves up on a single measure even though many of them are pure dorks who can't eat a bacon sandwich.
That's an argument for a different day.
I'd say that EI is on a completely different scale, rather than just being a different facet - clearly a degree in not relevant.
But, by implication at least, "thick" is related to intelligence - and admission to Oxford is a reasonable proxy for that. A degree from there is more about ability to absorb and interpret data rather than intelligence per se (so more correctly a measure of intellect)
ManofKent Maybe, and certainly Carswell is a stronger favourite than Helmer, but ideologically there is no difference between the two. As I keep saying the Tories should pick an inoffensive local gp or teacher in an open primary, then ram home Carswell's reactionary views to Labour and LD supporters, make the race a Tory v UKIP battle, and perhaps squeak home
This is Essex. Essex voters are very right wing. Carswell will win.
I think the key question - about 100 times more important than anything else - is the potential impact of a Carswell win on OFCOM determination of whether UKIP is a Major Party at the GE.
Pro Major Party argument - UKIP by-election win provides evidence UKIP is serious force at GE.
Anti Major Party argument - Carswell only re-elected due to personal vote as incumbent MP.
In my view this will decide whether there are GE debates.
Cameron simply will not, under any circumstances, agree to GE debates with Farage in all of them (though he may agree to the 5-3-2).
So IF OFCOM gives UKIP Major Party status because of Carswell win then Carswell win will mean no GE debates.
The argument about the debates and party categorisation for campaigning should not be based on previous results (which panders to the established parties) but how many candidates each party are putting up at the coming election. If a party contests sufficient seats to theoretically win a majority (i.e. 51% of seats) they should have major party status. You could perhaps set the threshold higher say 60% or 75% of seats contested but it should be based on the current candidates and their current manifestos and not on the past glories of declining parties.
Of course that would mean that UKIP and the Greens would have major party status but thats the way it should be. Then if Cameron wants to bottle the debates then so be it. He can carry the can for that.
Josias There is no contradiction between having grammar schools and an effective literacy and numeracy strategy and funding for early years, none at all
I'm both intrigued and appalled at the idea that Labour may want to quash any further inquiries into child abuse for fear it will lose them votes. Do they really want to be seen as the party that protects "kiddie fiddlers"?
Much as I dislike Labour can this really be so?
Incidentally, the interview with Andrew Norfolk on this morning's Today programme is worth listening to. He makes it clear that the racial element is a key one, that it's going on in lots of other towns, that the authorities were desperate to stop any story coming out and that Shaun Wright's response to him was "Why are you picking on Rotherham?"
That journalist deserves every award going. He's a rebuke to all those who think, post-Leveson, that the press need controlling.
This story is exactly why we we need a free press that publishes stories which the authorities did their damndest to hide from us.
Which is why I now believe that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority are objectively evil, a point of view which I would once have considered the province of tin foil hat wearers.
''I read in The Times yesterday that 15 of the victims have already engaged lawyers for a class action against Rotherham Council. Their going for £100k each - if this catches on, it'll be a huge sum to pay. ''
I read a figure of 140m quid somewhere. Would that be enough to bankrupt Rotherham??
ManOfKent Well Sarah Woolaston is a popular local MP regardless of what Cameron thinks of her, and it is the local association who will select the candidate
Well I was having an annoying day until I heard the wonderful news of Douglas Carswell's defection to UKIP, and the very principled stand to fight a by-election. What has not been mentioned at all, that Carswell can add a lot to UKIP's economic pitch as well as the localism agenda, not to mention the chestnut of climate change.
The only thing I would question is the timing - why not do it on the eve of the Tory conference in around a months time, if that could have guaranteed to have the by-election before the next general election for maximum embarassment?
As for the Tories crying wolf, they simply don't get why ex-Tories like me simply can't be bought off by the EU referendum promise. Firstly its an issue of trust, based on past precedent. Secondly, whether you end up with a Labour or Tory government after the next GE hardly makes a jot of difference with regard to policy on 75% of matters which are controlled by the EU. And then this coalition has broken a litany of promises - like Carswell quite rightly said, there has been no austerity, we're still borrowing over £100bn a year and heading inexorably towards a sovereign debt crisis starting at the end of next year. But that's no problem, its after the election so simply isn't on the radar at Westminster. And never mind that the 'deficit would be paid down' by 2015 - whatever that horrible phrase means, it doesn't mean still borrowing £100bn a year 5 years into a so called economic recovery.
And today signifies something much deeper - that the political plates are slowly shifting against the whole Westminster establishment. Yes it will need the great upcoming sovereign debt crisis starting at the end of next year to bring matters to a head, but events are moving in that direction, however slowly at first.
Also have to disagree with JosiasJessop On grammar schools, Germany has grammar schools as well as excellent technical schools and high schools, showing they can still allow an all-round excellent education suited to pupils' needs. Selection does not have to be at 11 either, Finland selects at 16, and many grammars allow sixth form entry
This is off-topic, but my problem is not with grammar schools per se; it is the fact that such talk concentrates on the upper end of the skill range.
The children who really need our help and energy are those at the bottom; the twenty-odd percent who are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate. These figures have remained obstinately around the same mark for generations, and seem impervious to political rhetoric.
If grammar schools are part of the solution (and they may be), then the associated change at the lower end would have to be so massive that it dwarfs a change back to grammar schools and selection. Basically, those concentrating on grammar schools are looking at the wrong people.
I'd be happy if people said: "An education system with grammar schools and much improved help / money spent on those left behind at the lower end of the scale," or somesuch. But few do.
As another aside, would we as a nation be willing to see a doubling of the money spent on children in care if it prevented further such hideous abuses, and made those children more prepared and educated for adult life? Would it be cheaper just to pack them off to private schools? Should we make adoption even easier (something th coalition has been making strides on)?
A lot of good sense, JJ. Only one quibble: at the end. Only people who have no real-world experience of adoption think it's a magic bullet. I was adopted in infancy by a couple (now passed on) who had enough trouble with each other, let alone children. I'll say no more.
Fair enough. My best friend was adopted, as was his sister, and they both had a fine upbringing, even when their dad died in tragic circumstances (he had a heart attack after chasing some thieves who were breaking into a neighbour's house / car). So I probably do have a rosy view of it.
I'm sorry your experience was different.
To be frank, their family seemed so normal that I forgot for years that they were adopted, only remembering when we were invited to meet his birth mother.
It's another question: is adoption better than life in care, on average?
I'm both intrigued and appalled at the idea that Labour may want to quash any further inquiries into child abuse for fear it will lose them votes. Do they really want to be seen as the party that protects "kiddie fiddlers"?
Much as I dislike Labour can this really be so?
Incidentally, the interview with Andrew Norfolk on this morning's Today programme is worth listening to. He makes it clear that the racial element is a key one, that it's going on in lots of other towns, that the authorities were desperate to stop any story coming out and that Shaun Wright's response to him was "Why are you picking on Rotherham?"
That journalist deserves every award going. He's a rebuke to all those who think, post-Leveson, that the press need controlling.
This story is exactly why we we need a free press that publishes stories which the authorities did their damndest to hide from us.
Which is why I now believe that a significant proportion of people in positions of authority are objectively evil, a point of view which I would once have considered the province of tin foil hat wearers.
All it takes for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing - as someone once said.
10/1 on Labour looks fantastic. Surely they should be looking to get 30%. Only trouble is whether their votersrefuse to take part because they think it's a vanity project and they want no part of it - see David Davis.
ManofKent Maybe, and certainly Carswell is a stronger favourite than Helmer, but ideologically there is no difference between the two. As I keep saying the Tories should pick an inoffensive local gp or teacher in an open primary, then ram home Carswell's reactionary views to Labour and LD supporters, make the race a Tory v UKIP battle, and perhaps squeak home
This is Essex. Essex voters are very right wing. Carswell will win.
I think the key question - about 100 times more important than anything else - is the potential impact of a Carswell win on OFCOM determination of whether UKIP is a Major Party at the GE.
Pro Major Party argument - UKIP by-election win provides evidence UKIP is serious force at GE.
Anti Major Party argument - Carswell only re-elected due to personal vote as incumbent MP.
In my view this will decide whether there are GE debates.
Cameron simply will not, under any circumstances, agree to GE debates with Farage in all of them (though he may agree to the 5-3-2).
So IF OFCOM gives UKIP Major Party status because of Carswell win then Carswell win will mean no GE debates.
The argument about the debates and party categorisation for campaigning should not be based on previous results (which panders to the established parties) but how many candidates each party are putting up at the coming election. If a party contests sufficient seats to theoretically win a majority (i.e. 51% of seats) they should have major party status. You could perhaps set the threshold higher say 60% or 75% of seats contested but it should be based on the current candidates and their current manifestos and not on the past glories of declining parties.
Of course that would mean that UKIP and the Greens would have major party status but thats the way it should be. Then if Cameron wants to bottle the debates then so be it. He can carry the can for that.
You need to add some measure of support as well though - say an average of polls over the last 12 months. Otherwise a rich bloke can just buy his way into the debates. I'd use the number of seats criteria in addition though.
Speedy No, as I said he is for deeper spending cuts than the Tories, hence alienating public sector workers, opposes gay marriage, thus alienating virtually all young and socially liberal voters and LDs and many Tories. There is ample ammunition for the Tories to capitalise on if they pick a good local candidate
So you think that if the Tories select a candidate from the public sector who is a member of a trade union who supports gay marriages and calls for lots of spending increases, will be the way for them to win in Douglas Carswell's seat? Why they don't just support a Socialist Workers Party candidate if you think that would be popular in Clacton.
And some of these kids could surely get more than £100,000
But who pays???
If the local authority has to pay that will concentrate a great many minds. Councils all across the North would be wondering if they are going to be sued, as this is clearly extremely widespread.
She probably has a better degree from a better university than you do, mind.
Just sayin'
I'm sure Mummy and Daddy paid for very good tutors to get her there.
I've no idea. But I don't judge people on their background or parental wealth, so don't really care.
(FWIW, I've never met Louise, although she had a somewhat "interesting" reputation that still lingered when I went up to Oxford a few years after her)
I've met Louise, and I can say this. Whatever her faults or virtues, you would.
As a married man, I can't really comment on that. I've had lunch with her, and found her highly intelligent. But, she has not covered herself with glory, I'd say.
10/1 on Labour looks fantastic. Surely they should be looking to get 30%. Only trouble is whether their votersrefuse to take part because they think it's a vanity project and they want no part of it - see David Davis.
Labour's vote dropped in Newark. Maybe that will be a guide to their fortunes in Clacton.
Carswell was always considered a loner? He could speak freely because he never had ministerial status? He was never considered to be enough of a team player to be given ministerial status?
I read in The Times yesterday that 15 of the victims have already engaged lawyers for a class action against Rotherham Council. Their going for £100k each - if this catches on, it'll be a huge sum to pay.
'Safeguarding services'. What did they do, hand out condoms?
Who exactly were they safeguarding?
They were safeguarding the salaries of the bigwigs.
I hope all the senior officers in Rotherham, in their social services department and the PPC himself get sued. They ought to pay the damages personally not expect the Rotherham council taxpayer to fund their gross negligence.
Indeed. 1400 x £100,000 = £140,000,000
And some of these kids could surely get more than £100,000
Comments
Speedy Maybe, but Carswell is hardly a voice of liberal enlightenment either
Just sayin'
Hospital managers* are like football managers, they always seem to get another job, even when being moved on for failure.
*I should point out that the current SMT at my hospital are the best managers I have encountered in 25 years in the NHS. All the right values and priorities.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/james-forsyth/2014/08/if-the-tories-cant-keep-carswell-in-the-fold-they-are-in-serious-trouble/
Currently it is vile and deserves all the opprobrium it attracts.
Perhaps Carswell was making a step in that direction in which case so much the better (doesn't forgive his switching) but as it stands you have the Farage wing of UKIP and I guess you will soon have the Carswell wing of UKIP. The Carswell wing is more electable, although god only knows what policies will fill the manifesto: we want more done and we want it done now although don't push us on the detail or funding or...or...
Plus, of course, and assuming Farage has had any sort of input into existing UKIP campaigns (huge assumption I grant you) then the two wings are mutually exclusive.
PS Isn't the phrase 'liberal enlightenment' an oxymoron?
http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/i-was-wrong-about-the-climate-change-act/2607
Who said the turnout would very probably be under 80%? If this swing continues, it could be higher. I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the next serious poll. And also for the first one where sampling was done after the TV debate buzz has subsided.
http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/politics/there-has-been-no-austerity-at-all-no-austerity-douglas-carswell-mp/3494.article
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304066504576341353566196300
''More than in most other developed countries, however, the biggest determinant of a German child's educational track appears to be his or her family's socioeconomic status. Even with similar grades, children with college-educated parents are at least three times more likely to go on to Gymnasien than those from working-class families, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.''
So do you care to refine your disagreement ?
As far as I can see Germany selects at 10. Try peddling that to win seats off Labour - do you think UKIP will try.
Grammar schools in Kent are stretching criteria with Headmasters Picks, which make it sound more like X-Factor than an education system.
Con 21,235
Lab 20,315
LD 5,913
UKIP 2,314
Respect 477
Ind 154
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harwich_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2000s
Notional 2005 Clacton result:
Con 18,971
Lab 15,342
LD 5,776
UKIP 1,957
Oth 631
http://election.pressassociation.com/constituencies.html
Clacton is basically the former Harwich seat minus the town of Harwich itself which was moved into Bernard Jenkin's North Essex constituency.
Also they haven't found anyone willing to vote tory yet in Clacton now that Carswell is gone.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/sirajdatoo/douglas-carswell-is-ukips-candidate-in-clacton-by-election
A black day for the blues admittedly, but Lord and Wright in their own special ways are keeping the game alive for us. And more to the point, at least SOMETHING is happening.
Hilarious.
The writing is on the wall, ''All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others''
Whatever the tories do in Clacton, Carswell has it in the bag.
If you look at the actual numbers rather than the percentages the turnout between 2010 and 2014 fell by almost 13,000 - almost exactly the same as the combined drop in Labour and Lib Dem votes. There is no need to spirit up some anti-UKIP vote to explain the result and where the votes went.
No party outside of the Tories was ever going to win the Newark by-election in 2013. We knew that from the very start.. at least those of us who actually knew the constituency did.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/08/douglas-carswell
"Mr Carswell is a big, serious figure. A cerebral libertarian, he has campaigned against quantitative easing and low interest rates, proposed sweeping political reforms and authored a well-reviewed book on e-democracy (the contents of which he discusses in the video below, part of an essay on democracy that we published in February 2014). He wants to leave the EU, but out of a desire to radically overhaul the British state, not out of narrow-minded nationalism."
Much as I dislike Labour can this really be so?
Incidentally, the interview with Andrew Norfolk on this morning's Today programme is worth listening to. He makes it clear that the racial element is a key one, that it's going on in lots of other towns, that the authorities were desperate to stop any story coming out and that Shaun Wright's response to him was "Why are you picking on Rotherham?"
That journalist deserves every award going. He's a rebuke to all those who think, post-Leveson, that the press need controlling.
This story is exactly why we we need a free press that publishes stories which the authorities did their damndest to hide from us.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/08/28/Dont-forget-about-Russias-invasion-Crimea/
Russia continues to occupy Crimea, in defiance of international law.
It's appalling, and the scale is shocking. That 1,400 incidents of child sexual abuse has been referred to as the 'tip of the iceberg' is sickening.
Just let it go HYUFD, let it go.
I hope all the senior officers in Rotherham, in their social services department and the PPC himself get sued. They ought to pay the damages personally not expect the Rotherham council taxpayer to fund their gross negligence.
The children who really need our help and energy are those at the bottom; the twenty-odd percent who are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate. These figures have remained obstinately around the same mark for generations, and seem impervious to political rhetoric.
If grammar schools are part of the solution (and they may be), then the associated change at the lower end would have to be so massive that it dwarfs a change back to grammar schools and selection. Basically, those concentrating on grammar schools are looking at the wrong people.
I'd be happy if people said: "An education system with grammar schools and much improved help / money spent on those left behind at the lower end of the scale," or somesuch. But few do.
As another aside, would we as a nation be willing to see a doubling of the money spent on children in care if it prevented further such hideous abuses, and made those children more prepared and educated for adult life? Would it be cheaper just to pack them off to private schools? Should we make adoption even easier (something th coalition has been making strides on)?
Newark: 41.1%
Clacton: 52.5%
75+ population:
Newark: 10.0%
Clacton: 17.2%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/clacton/
I keep a record of the conflict just for history and sport stuff, there is plenty of bull....t from both sides.
If I were chosen to fight Luton South for UKIP, and then Gavin Shuker joined UKIP, of course i'd stand down for the sitting MP. And nor would I expect to be included in high-level, secret, negotiations.
They were a lost generation.
Mind you, parents have got a massive role to play as well.
Liberal/LD local election vote share.
1979: 14%
1980: 13%
2013: 13%
2014: 11%
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP14-33/local-elections-2014
As for the rest, I think the local community will judge Carswell more on his performance as an MP rather than your extreme view of him. That you think core vote Libdems and Labour voters (which are probably all that are left in a place like Clacton) will take notice of Tory propaganda is probably the most optimistic part of your rather optimistic speculation.
I'd be happy to accept university/degree class is not a perfect measure of intelligence, but it's a reasonable proxy.
Imagine what they will be able to do if Labour implements Leveson's proposals in full, as they have said they will?
It means that we'll never be able to find out about scandals such as this or other similar ones.
Incidentally, I'm willing to guess that if you investigated how Pakistani-heritage girls in these towns have been treated by their parents and menfolk you will find some pretty harrowing stories. People who are willing to behave like this to one woman are not suddenly going to turn into perfect gentlemen the minute they walk through their front door. Were I a journalist that's where I would start looking: there's a story there about the different types of abuse women, whether white or not, face at the hands of men with a violently mysogynistic and contemptuous view of women as a whole.
"Would it be cheaper just to pack them off to private schools?"
Almost certainly yes and it would probably provide a better end result. The tricky bit is the holidays but for the older ones there is Outward Bound (a fine organisation) and a bit of imagination and a moderate cost would provide a solution for all.
(FWIW, I've never met Louise, although she had a somewhat "interesting" reputation that still lingered when I went up to Oxford a few years after her)
This is Essex. Essex voters are very right wing. Carswell will win.
Pro Major Party argument - UKIP by-election win provides evidence UKIP is serious force at GE.
Anti Major Party argument - Carswell only re-elected due to personal vote as incumbent MP.
In my view this will decide whether there are GE debates.
Cameron simply will not, under any circumstances, agree to GE debates with Farage in all of them (though he may agree to the 5-3-2).
So IF OFCOM gives UKIP Major Party status because of Carswell win then Carswell win will mean no GE debates.
A degree might measure intellect or the ability to think in a set way but intelligence has many more facets, not least emotional. The problem we face is that people with degrees like to puff themselves up on a single measure even though many of them are pure dorks who can't eat a bacon sandwich.
If I were UKIP I would call it just before the Tory party conference. Make Camerons announcement about campaigning against the EU seem very very hollow.
It's "At least 1,400".
The only places you will ever hit labour politicians are the pocket and the ballot box. Same goes for all politicians.
In the end, we need the voters of Rotherham to vote for someone else. But they don't. And they won't.
The reason??? Rotherham, like so many labour constituencies, is a walking corpse of a town, kept moving by public money. The economic reasons for its existence ended decades ago.
I really hope Labour voters don't vote Tory to stop Ukip or vice versa.
Earliest possible date is 2nd October, the day after the Conservative conference closes.
I'm sorry your experience was different.
To be frank, their family seemed so normal that I forgot for years that they were adopted, only remembering when we were invited to meet his birth mother.
It's another question: is adoption better than life in care, on average?
That puts into perspective for me.
Its the party of the MP that vacates the seat which is UKIP. I'm surprised they haven't timed it to ruin the Tories conference.
1) fair play for resigning the seat and fighting as UKIP. If you defect (unless its to an independent) it should be an automatic election
2) Recall will now almost certainly happen
3) Cameron and co are totally incapable of managing their party
I'd say that EI is on a completely different scale, rather than just being a different facet - clearly a degree in not relevant.
But, by implication at least, "thick" is related to intelligence - and admission to Oxford is a reasonable proxy for that. A degree from there is more about ability to absorb and interpret data rather than intelligence per se (so more correctly a measure of intellect)
Of course that would mean that UKIP and the Greens would have major party status but thats the way it should be. Then if Cameron wants to bottle the debates then so be it. He can carry the can for that.
I read a figure of 140m quid somewhere. Would that be enough to bankrupt Rotherham??
The only thing I would question is the timing - why not do it on the eve of the Tory conference in around a months time, if that could have guaranteed to have the by-election before the next general election for maximum embarassment?
As for the Tories crying wolf, they simply don't get why ex-Tories like me simply can't be bought off by the EU referendum promise. Firstly its an issue of trust, based on past precedent. Secondly, whether you end up with a Labour or Tory government after the next GE hardly makes a jot of difference with regard to policy on 75% of matters which are controlled by the EU. And then this coalition has broken a litany of promises - like Carswell quite rightly said, there has been no austerity, we're still borrowing over £100bn a year and heading inexorably towards a sovereign debt crisis starting at the end of next year. But that's no problem, its after the election so simply isn't on the radar at Westminster. And never mind that the 'deficit would be paid down' by 2015 - whatever that horrible phrase means, it doesn't mean still borrowing £100bn a year 5 years into a so called economic recovery.
And today signifies something much deeper - that the political plates are slowly shifting against the whole Westminster establishment. Yes it will need the great upcoming sovereign debt crisis starting at the end of next year to bring matters to a head, but events are moving in that direction, however slowly at first.
Why they don't just support a Socialist Workers Party candidate if you think that would be popular in Clacton.
Come on HYUFD be a realist, let it go.
But who pays???
If the local authority has to pay that will concentrate a great many minds. Councils all across the North would be wondering if they are going to be sued, as this is clearly extremely widespread.
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/504946756501913600/photo/1
So £560 to be paid out by each resident.